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Published 28/02/2018

THE ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND (LSE:RBS) Unlike Barclays or LLoyds Bank, we find ourselves unable to draw a nice neat trend line from "the day it all went wrong". Essentially, in 2008, RBS needed a little manipulation to continue the forced reversals, so this spoiled the trend.

As is our wont, we've drawn a BLUE line on the chart which dates back to September 2008, this being the first (and last) high point which followed the shares manipulation downward in May 2008, an event which created a sodding great gap between 3190p and 2665p due to historical prices adjusted to cope with the AIM inspired 10:1 split during 2012.

Unsurprisingly, there are a few indications the market is taking the BLUE line quite seriously and this creates the situation where RBS currently needs CLOSE a session above 281.966p to suggest it has joined the other two retail banks in escaping the ruling downtrend. Unfortunately the share appears to have taken advertising space in "Clown Shares Monthly" to boast it intends head to 259p with secondary if (when) broken, at an eventual bottom of 244p or so.

The price needs a bit of a miracle and while 281.966 isn't terribly far from current, we'd be inclined to take anything near term above 276p as a signal bottom is actually "IN" (for now) and plan for some coming growth toward 281p and a challenge of the ruling downtrend.

In the event the price somehow managed to close above the trend, apparently an initial 297 makes for a viable ambition. Secondary, with closure above, apparently should be 350p.

Published 27/02/2018

LLOYDS BANK (LSE:LLOY) There was a time when our GaGa rule (Gap Down, Gap Up) signified a fairly solid change in market intent, one which we could confident predict an outcome. In the case of Lloyds Bank, it played this game recently and thus, is heading up to 75 initially.

Even better, secondary calculates at a pretty firm looking 92p!

Regular readers will be aware we are never, ever, this confident with a share from the comedy sector and alas, there is actually a fly in the Lady GaGa ointment. For this particularly ridiculous set of criteria to hold water, it demands the price actually be moved below, then above, a prior trend. In the case of Lloyds, this was not the case though there is actually something quite fascinating worth paying some attention to.

On February 21st 2018, Lloyds Bank share price was gapped UP above the downtrend from 21st February 2007, the precise moment when it all started going wrong for this share price when it suffered the horrors of trading above 6 quid! There is an interesting coincidence of dates there and it comes with the implication Lloyds has moved from the "going down" zone to the "awaiting recovery" zone.

For Lloyds, our inclination is to demand the share price actually CLOSE above 74p before breathlessly exclaiming it may be alive as, essentially, we really like the assurance of "higher highs" providing a vehicle to reliably lift a shares value.

There has been too many manipulation gaps to make calculating an immediate uptrend a sane prospect but for now, Lloyds would really need slide below 62p to give real cause for concern as a trip back toward 55, perhaps even 50p, becomes immediately viable.

Published 26/02/2018

BARCLAYS BANK (LSE:BARC) There was possibly a moment, as the tide washed around King Canute, when his loyal subjects privately conceded they were wrong, their leader could not stop the tide. But probably, out of collective stubbornness, they let him get soaked anyway.

This apocryphal story, with nothing to do with Barclays, does spring to mind when reviewing some recent movement against this share price. The important thing is the BLUE downtrend dating back to January 2007 and the very moment when "it" all started going wrong against the retail bank shares. Last week, the stock market opted to gap / manipulate Barclays share price above this critical downtrend, better still doing it in a fashion which sends a clear signal - those days are gone, the future is looking better!

Never forget, this is the UK stock market, one where utter probity can be expected by the utterly insane...

If we suspend disbelief, Barclays price movements appear to be advertising that growth now bettering 215p should enter a cycle toward 243p eventually, challenging the highs of last year. Secondary, with closure above such a level, comes along at 300p and beyond. What's really annoying is the detail, were this not a retail bank, we'd be inclined to accept 243p as a viable initial ambition due to a few other criteria being satisfied.

Certainly, there can be little doubt Barclays need only devalue itself below the dashed RED line at 200p to justify a raised eyebrow as this looks capable of tripping some reversal toward a non threatening 195p with secondary, if broken, at 188p. Achieving the secondary would risk real danger as 'lower lows' risk emplacing the price in a swamp with a bottom at 162p eventually.

Who knows, perhaps the retail banks will prove worth taking seriously but until Barclays now actually closes above 243p and the prior highs, we remain expectant of a "gotcha" moment.

Published 25/02/2018

FTSE THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX) Like the bad weather currently proposed by the usual doom-mongers, we remain suggesting 6,800 as a potential drop target for the FTSE. "The Beast from the East!" as the apparently incoming weather front is known, something normal folk refer to as winter...

However, our suggestion of 6,800 still requires the FTSE to better 7384 to rubbish the potential. The last week had a fairly simple demand, that the FTSE exceed 7328 to suggest the index was not about to drop. Sharp eyed fanatics will be aware this thresh-hold remained, like the UK's Gold Medal hopes in the Olympics, completely untroubled.

With the FTSE closing last week at 7244, some work is obviously required to trouble the 7328 trigger level but there are early indications the market faces some upward travels. Unfortunately, the situation remains of above 7328 pointing at a cycle now starting toward an initial 7425 with secondary, if bettered, making itself known at 7543 points.

Utterly key to this load of optimism shall be the market demonstrating the ability to exceed BLUE on the chart, 7365 at time of writing.

We'd now have some concern should the market manage to slip below 7145 points as this is supposed to bring a slump toward 7065 points. Some grotty times could easily ensue as this will place the index firmly in the 6,810 zone.

We're going to use the next three sessions to give an update against the clown section, UK's Retail Banks!

Published 22/02/2018

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) Before looking at near term FTSE, it's probably not a daft idea to stare meaningfully at BRENT CRUDE as the product has taken a "stupid pill". There were quite a few things indicating growth for a while but forces, political or market, seem to be legislating against presently.

When this sort of nonsense occurs, we find the sanest option is to step back and look at the bigger picture. In the case of BRENT, the suggestion is the product needs now better 74 to make movement to an initial 83 viable. Secondary, if bettered, comes along at 92.

As for FTSE FOR FRIDAY, we've got some strange numbers which frankly are causing confusion. We suspect market direction upward will prove viable, but only if the DAX wanders above 12560 points. As mentioned repeatedly, we were deeply unhappy with some market movement toward the end of January. These movements also infected the DAX but we suspect there was a tiny little dance step which shall prove important, hence the 12560 thing.

On the basis the FTSE now betters 7282 points, we feel justified in looking for growth toward 7328 points initially. If this number appears familiar, it's 'cos we mentioned it last Friday with a warning not to expect it within a single session. This time, despite a week spent messing around aimlessly, it now appears possible in a single session. Secondary, if exceeded, now calculates at 7384 points but if the languid pace of movement continues, it could be March before such an ambition makes itself known!

The flop side of all this very vague optimism comes from something we'd worried about on Thursday. Essentially, the FTSE should not have proven capable of breaking 7189 without bringing further hysterics. Unfortunately, the index did manage below to 7187 - very briefly we admit - and the situation now exists of weakness below 7187 pointing at reversal to 7147 initially with secondary, if (when) broken at 7093 and hopefully some sort of bounce. If triggered stop is rather wide at 7270 points.

Published 21/02/2018

Published 20/02/2018

MORRISON (WM) (LSE:MRW)  It's aways tempting to declare a Lack of Interest when covering Morrison Supermarket. In our little part of Argyll, the choice of supermarket is limited to one and frankly, they can be less than efficient. What other store ALWAYS runs out of the same things on the same days, yet never changes their order pattern? Perhaps it's Captive Audience Syndrome.

Rather spitefully, we've circled a movement on February 6th which makes us wonder if some grief is planned. We're often a little suspicious of these nasty little blips below an uptrend as, while they may just be the market playing with peoples underwear, sometimes they prove harbingers of doom and, in the case of Morrison, it appears now below 209 should bring a discount down to 189p initially.

Visually this makes perfect sense given the manipulation gap lurking in the 190's but we'd warn, emphatically, should 189p break then a logical bottom and potential bounce point calculates at 167p.

Currently trading around 223p, the share price requires better 231p to indicate some optimism for the near future as growth to an initial 240p looks fairly certain. Secondary, should such a level be bettered - ideally with the price closing a session higher - calculates at 260p and this ambition is liable to provoke game changing prospects for its future. In the event the share price manages exceed this highs of August last year, we start talking at 320p and look every upward.

Alas, if our local store is anything to go by, expecting the best is liable to be similar to looking for gluten free bread any day - except on a Tuesday.

Published 19/02/2018

SCANCELL HOLDINGS (LSE:SCLP) For the n'th year running, the USA managed to surprise by sneaking in "Washington Birthday" as an excuse to close the markets. Quite why a President who promoted a gun culture which led to todays USA is feted utterly escapes us. Otherwise, he didn't do anything really important...

While absolutely nothing to do with Scancell, this US holiday ambushes us every year as it tends dampen down anything occurring in Europe.

On Scancell, there was a market movement earlier in February which quite puzzled us, due to the share price "possibly" being gapped up above a trend we hadn't noticed, one dating from 2010. If this is indeed the case, the share price risks becoming quite interesting in the future should it manage to trade above 14.75p. Currently messing around at 13.5p, we're calculating 14.75 being bettered as triggering some growth toward 19p eventually. Secondary, if bettered, it at a longer term 24.5p and implies the potential of a future challenge against the Dashed Blue downtrend since 2012.

What surprises about all this optimism comes from an important nugget of information. If we are indeed mapping a trend which commenced at 104p, the share price will prove capable of some interesting growth patterns.

If the market intends shatter dreams, it requires below RED - 9.5p - to suggest doing what the English army did, when faced with George Washington.

Published 18/02/2018

FTSE THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX) The market has bounced, pretty convincingly, from the immediate Brexit Vote red uptrend. It's something worth considering, we had eschewed this uptrend for quite some time, due to the fake nature of the post vote drop. But visually, the market computers now regard it as viable.

Firstly though, to review the droop potentials, the market remains suggesting 6,800 shall make a guest appearance. Secondary, if broken, comes along at around 6,600. The visuals indicate the final harbinger of a drop shall be movement now below 7090 points. As the index is currently a pretty solid 200 points higher, it appears increasingly unlikely this scenario is the plan on the immediate movement cycle.

Instead, as we mentioned on Friday, there's a heck of an argument demanding continuing growth (slowly probably) to 7328 points. In the event this level is bettered in the week ahead, a cycle toward an initial 7380 makes some sense with secondary, if bettered, a pretty firm 7484 points.

Such an ambition visually challenges the immediate downtrend (dark blue) and if achieved toward the end of the coming week, is very liable to better it, forcing some interesting calculations for March.

For now though, in the absence of political miss-steps, it appears the market wishes to head to 7484 points, It needs break RED at 7090 to rubbish the prospect. We rather suspect the index shall eventually visit the 6,800 level as, unless the Dashed Light Blue level is bettered, there are quite a few calculations which demand a drop eventually.

Published 15/02/2018

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) Market performance last Friday once again confirmed why our weekly FTSE mumble is, by far and away the most read headline section, literally worldwide. As can be assumed, this is truly flattering but blooming terrifying also. Real people, real money, real responsibility!

Friday is looking mildly interesting as, while the FTSE continues not make movements of any substantial strength, there's a heck of an argument favouring movement toward a useless 7286 with anything continuing beyond 7268 points. Our secondary, if such a level is bettered, comes along at 7328 points but given the paucity of strength recently, let's just say we have our doubts - at least in a single session. If triggered, stop is pretty wide at 7202 points.

Worldwide, the recent massive swings have provoked a need for some truly ridiculous stop loss levels. This need was never more in evidence that the brief drop on the FTSE at 1.30pm on Wednesday. While there may have been a sound reason for the sharp downward spike, we were not particularly amused at how it really appeared designed to collect stop losses, prior to a rise. The movement down to 7144 really challenged our sense of humour.

The reason we're mentioning this particular blatant piece of engineering designed to harm traders is due to the current drop scenario required against the FTSE. Essentially, should the market now make it below 7144, a trip down to 7112 looks viable with secondary, if broken, at 7060. As can be seen, such an ambition breaks RED, the Brexit Vote uptrend, and will prove capable of provoking further drops. Alas, the tightest stop loss looks like 7235 points.

Published 14/02/2018

Galliford Try (LSE:GFRD) We received a few plaintive emails asking us to look at this lot from our Trend perspective as ideally everyone wants to know where bottom might be. The answer(s), given the days 19% reversal, are probably not terribly encouraging. In fact, they stink.

Firstly, when viewing the chart, the market opted to gap/manipulate the share price below the uptrend since 2009/10. The implication obviously is this particular trend is now complete with a new trend starting.

Secondly, the next implication is the market intends drive the price down.

This, alas, takes us to the stinky part of our calculations. We're showing the potential of 696p providing an immediate bounce potential. This gives a peculiar problem due to the Low of July 2016. If the share price now manages to CLOSE a session below 785, it is seen as producing Lower Lows, an issue which can provoke dire consequences for the longer term.

In the case of Galliford Try, it absolutely must bounce from 696p. Should it fail to do so, we're calculating 308p as a "best guess" but ridiculously, the long term ambition calculates with a minus sign preface. This creates the situation where 696p is probably the best place to hope for a real bounce.

Oddly, the share does not require much movement to suggest this has all been a dreadful mistake. Currently listed at 801p, it need 'only' exceed 883p to suggest bottom is already 'in' and further growth can be hoped to an initial 935p. As can be seen on the chart, this regains the historical trend with the potential of challenging the downtrend since the start of 2018, ideally justifying an entirely new analysis.

Published 13/02/2018

The AIM Market (FTSE:AXX) As we enter the Chinese Year of the Dog, one (we suspect like every Chinese year) which will be blessed with luck and good fortune, a look at the AIM market appeared a good idea. Unfortunately, there's quite a lot not to like about the AIM, currently.

It's probably worth mentioning though, while the FTSE appears to be on a path toward 6,800 points, the last six sessions have failed to actually depress the market and the AIM illustrates similar behaviour. The immediate situation with the AIM is, similar to the FTSE, a little weird though thankfully presenting a more logical picture - a sentence we never expected write about the AIM.

Currently trading around 1016 points, the AIM index only need better 1021 to point at coming miracle recovery toward an initial 1032 points. Secondary, if such a level is bettered, calculates at 1060 and suggests a coming challenge against the downtrend which dates back to the year 2000!

This is liable to be quite a big deal.

Once the AIM actually trades above this downtrend, we're now showing an initial 1134 point ambition with secondary a longer term 1555. In this territory, it implies some life changing potentials against many AIM constituents.

Now for the however.

Just as the AIM does not actually require much effort to imply growth, equally it need only weaken below RED at 1005 points to stray into a zone where a drip down to 950 looks very possible. Secondary, if/when broken, calculates at 903 points. Broadly speaking, a visit to the 950 level will equate with the FTSE smacking itself down to the 6,800 level. Perhaps more importantly, while neither drop potential is particularly game changing, the visual implication is of the market simply slowing itself down rather than "doing a BMR". The AIM market requires below the dashed RED line, currently 735, to imply purchasing running shoes rather than AIM shares would be a good idea.

Published 12 /02/2018

National Grid (LSE:NG.) It can be quite strange, how some days the FTSE shows as 1%+ up yet from our perspective, nothing is happening. This nonsense occurs when the market moves within trigger levels, essentially pretending to be interesting. On Monday, the action happened between 8:09am and 9am and a trading range of 28 points.

Or in plain English, nothing actually happened.

But with National Grid, something almost did occur to judge by emails received. This lot are "one of ours", a share we monitor on a daily basis for clients. For some time, we've been warning this is on a path to 690p with secondary, when broken, at a bouncy bottom hopefully around the 630p mark.

The dashed line across the bottom of the screen dates from 2003 and certainly gives hope some justification will be found for a bounce should 630p - or so - make an appearance eventually. Alas, we've a slight concern about the 630p ambition as it catapults the share price into a region where 490p makes a long term attraction, rather effectively matching the lows of 2010 and signalling a viable entry point. If it even appears!

There's very little positive showing against this lot as the price needs better RED at 950p currently before we'd abandon our expectation against further drops coming. If looking for straws to clutch, the immediate downtrend (BLUE) is currently 850p, suggesting the share needs grow by a quid just to ease the immediate pace of descent.

Published 11/02/2018

FTSE THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX) We should find a way of building our articles which gives folks an idea of which bit to read. Due to our habit of giving "if x then y" and "if a then b" scenario, it would be useful if we could always position each scenario in a way which told the reader what to expect.

Taking us down this road are our two FTSE headline analysis from last week, each of which has proven rather prescient. Our throwaway comment on Friday of the FTSE being capable of slithering down to the 7,000 level actually transpired in FTSE Futures during the evening as 6980 made a guest appearance for a few seconds. Then FTSE Futures bounced by a remarkable 180 points. The Futures market tucked themselves up for the weekend, almost as if nothing had happened! It really was not a pretty sight to behold.

The immediate situation suggests the FTSE intends travel to the 6,800 level before we can hope for a bounce. The problem comes if 6,790 is breached as it ticks a box pointing at the risk of continued weakness making itself known, perhaps down toward 6650 before a real bounce can be hoped.

One odd thing, perhaps giving some hope, is the uptrend since the BREXIT vote. The FTSE hit it, then bounced, on Friday. But unfortunately, by just 7 points, it did break the trend during the session as it should have bounced at 7077.324 (roughly).

As the foregoing is the drop scenario, we expect the 6,800 level but are considerably less comfortable proposing 6,650. Additionally, we've shown the Uptrend Since 2009 which suggests "headless chicken mode" be engaged below 6,100 points currently.

On a more optimistic note, the FTSE did appear to bounce off the Brexit Uptrend, despite the behaviour of FTSE Futures after hours on Friday 9th. In addition, there have been some pretty strange market movements, all of which conspire to suggest the immediate drop is being coerced. The circled minute by minute 50 points a day managed decline on the FTSE from January 29th through to February 2nd alone merits a stewards enquiry.

As we've said repeatedly, this sort of nonsense will often provide sharp and vivid changes of direction and for the FTSE, the market requires better 7,200 points to escape the immediate drop trend.

So, if the FTSE somehow pulls a rabbit from a hat, what happens if 7,200 is bettered?

Initially, we are looking for a movement above 7265 which will serve to tick the first "Bottom is In" box. Our secondary is a rather more interesting 7,400 points, placing the FTSE firmly in a zone where we can dream of a future 7,550 or so.

Published 08/02/2018

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) It's rare for us to approach the weekend with a "thank goodness it's over" but the last week has been rather foul. We love market volatility as it makes life bearable but the FTSE has shown more movement in the last 3 weeks than it did all last year!

Making the mental switch from Cruise Control to Race Track performance has not been straightforward and oddly, even the market itself appears to tie itself in knots of confusion. Our usual rule of thumb, movements over 50% strength to initial targets, used to be an utterly reliable direction indicator. For the present, it's not. The other day, when the FTSE exceeded 7,305 points, this was supposed to herald a surprise market recovery, one which was noticeably absent. Instead, the market has ticked the last box for travel down to the 6800 level we mentioned at the start of this week.

Are we convinced?

Nope. Or not entirely. But the immediate situation isn't great. The FTSE closed at 7162 points, creating the situation where the market needs below 7160 near term (remember, we are talking about the FTSE, not after hours futures) to point at near term reversal toward 7117 points. Secondary, if broken, is a little scary at 7063 points, though, to be honest, it could easily continue down to the 7,000 level.

Do remember, a nice solid sounding number like 7,000 provides absolutely no certainty of a bounce. We'd imagine a lot of folks took a long position on Wall St when it hit 24,000 points on Thursday. Most of 'em are now "walking funny".

For the FTSE to makes us consider the possibility of a miracle recovery, near term above 7204 certainly betters the painfully obvious immediate downtrend, opening the door for some growth toward 7244 points initially with secondary, if bettered, a less likely 7288.

Have a good weekend, you probably deserve it!

Published 07/02/2018

GSK (LSE:GSK) This week, we've been taking the easy option for 'headline' subjects by choosing shares from our email. Today, it's GSK's turn under the spotlight, a well established share currently showing some rather unexpected potentials for the future.

To dissect the various trends, we'll start with the obvious. GSK has exhibited a Glass Floor since 2002 at 10 quid, a level considerable effort has been made to avoid breaking. If 10 quid breaks, we're calculating bottom at 650p.

Is there a risk of this?

Unfortunately, the answer is yes.

Currently, we're showing the potential of weakness toward 1177p with further travel below 1243p. Our secondary target, the point where we almost demand a bounce, calculates at 1036p. This is where life is liable to become rather dangerous, simply due to the logic, should 1036p make a guest appearance, of the price making Lower Lows than any point since 2010. As a result, we will not be confident the historical Glass Floor shall hold as negative news could very easily drive an express ride to 650p.

What does the share price need do to get out the immediate mess?

Thankfully, it already appears to be making the right steps. The plunge on the 6th February allegedly empowered recovery toward 1288p. If such a level had been bettered (it was), this ticks our first box for bottom being "in" on the immediate price cycle. It also creates the scenario where movement now above 1295p is supposed to drive the share upward to 1323p. Our secondary target, should such an ambition be exceeded, calculates at 1395p, comfortably above a prior series of Highs and hopefully capable of catapulting this upward.

For now, it's at the edge of dangerous but realistically does not require much work to present some near term potentials.

Published 06/02/2018

Versarien (LSE:VRS) & some FTSE thoughts. Obviously, we're in a bit of a tizzy with FTSE movements but thankfully there are early indications today - Wed - promises some recovery. Whether it's genuine or not remains to be seen but even above 7302 points will give some hope.

The trigger level of 7302 broadly equates to that presented for the DOW yesterday though we do hope the FTSE shows more conviction for recovery than the DOW JONES. To cut to the chase, above 7302 calculates with the potential of FTSE recovery toward 7375 points fairly near term. Stop is quite ludicrous, due to recent volatility, at 7200 points. And it is worth remembering the market is trading in an overall zone where "bottom" calculates at 6,800 eventually. Though, to be honest, above 7386 tends lessen such a potential considerably.

As for Versarien, movement this year has been quite worrying, now presenting the probability of weakness below 87 driving the price down to an initial 71p, along with a short lived bounce. Secondary, if (when) 71p breaks calculates at a bottom of 47p and challenge of RED, the most recent viable uptrend.

There is, however, one important facet to this lots price movements since last November which is worth considering. The growth rate has proven extraordinary, regularly exceeding upward target levels by 50%. This is very unusual and hopefully an indicator the market has a plan for its future. It allows us to mention any miracle bounce bettering just 106p now should have an ambition of an initial 118p with secondary, if bettered, at 138p.

And then, we need to review the tea leaves again.

We suspect it shall prove worth watching if it actually does bounce at 71p as maybe, just maybe, the market is playing "hunt the gap"!

Published 05/02/2018

IQE (LSE:IQE) & some DOW thoughts The media will be awash with scare stories of the DOW JONES suffering its biggest drop ever, all designed to grab headlines and frankly misinform. Aug 24th, 2015 was considerably worse, -6.67% while 16,000 points, but as the DOW is now 24,000+, mislaying 1600 points in a single session was frankly careless.

And 800 points were dropped in just 8 minutes of the session.

We were not entirely surprised at the miracle recovery toward 24,800 as it carried a vague promise for continued oomph to around 25,500 points. Alas, it was not to be as the miracle faded like a politicians promise, refusing to budge beyond 24,800. Perhaps tomorrow will yield a surprise...

For some reason, IQE was a share we were continually asked about during the Monday. It's 'one of ours' and quite oddly, managed to close the session at a target level we've been postulating for over a month. We're a little perturbed at the movement below 102 during the session as it hints, very dangerously, 87p should provide a bottom.

This notion worries as, especially as it risks challenging RED, the immediate uptrend. The implication, should RED break, is of further dismal travel down to 57p, rather effectively undoing all the good work of the last year.

Who knows though, perhaps the low of 89p shall prove sufficiently close to our 87p calculation to promote a bounce?

In the event of the price managing a miracle above  112p, we'd view it as beating the immediate downtrend and capable of continuing growth to 116p. Then, it becomes a matter of where the price closes as above 116p and we're expecting future recovery toward 135p.

Published 04/02/2018

FTSE THIS WEEK. (FTSE:UKX) Something quite off colour happened on Friday evening with FTSE Futures. We'd been bathing in a smug afterglow (due to our prediction on the FTSE proving pretty concise) when a loud flushing noise on the Futures market at 6:30pm scared us silly.

Usually, in after hours trading, FTSE Futures refrain from the dramatic movements displayed by the USA but on Friday evening, FTSE Futures were to suffer a full blown stuffing whereas the German market simply received a bit of a polite kicking which paid lip service to the 400 point droop on the Dow Jones. It was a strange event, one we suspect shall prove to be "overcooked" with the UK market experiencing some surprise recovery fairly soon.

There is, however, little doubt the FTSE has a problem around 7365 points as weakness below could easily propel the market downhill to 7230 points, a level awash with some very real issues and risking a loss of confidence in strength since the start of last December. (Deep breath time) Below 7230 and we get to mention a bottom ambition around the 6800 point. Which stinks!

Perhaps we're being unduly optimistic but the numbers do tend suggest FTSE Future drops were over-exaggerated. We also question the integrity of a market which witnessed an almost predefined 50 (ish) point loss each day for the last four sessions. Things like this will often be reversed with brutal efficiency and while the FTSE need only exceed 7473 to move above the immediate drop trend, the initial target of  7517 should prove useful as it's perfectly capable of generating a longer term secondary around the 7600 point.

And this shall require a revisit to the numbers...

For now, we'd suspect the week to start with some early drops on the FTSE but hopefully the 7365 will remain unsullied, allowing a totally unexpected bounce to take place. Fingers crossed time!

Published 01/02/2018

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) As feared, our 100% success rate fell apart last Friday when the expected FTSE scenario didn't even happen. At least this should not have caused any friendly fire incidents but it does worry us, due to potentials being shown from Friday 2nd!

There are quite a few arguments favouring some sort of coming bounce, not least being the number of "our" shares getting very close to drop trigger levels. Invariably these trigger levels, when they start to appear in mobs, become points at which a bounce can be expected and equally inevitable is the effect on the overall market should a bounce be genuine.

Last Friday, in what was supposed to be a near term commentary, we mentioned the dangers should 7575 break as a dribble downward toward 7450 makes sense. It was to take until Wednesday evening futures before 7575 was damaged and now, the immediate situation is of weakness below 7476 still suggesting 7450 as a point where a bounce makes sense. A break of 7450 looks capable of bringing fire and pestilence, along with 7430 points. Such has been the pace of decline since January 30th it appears a stop can be placed at 7520 points.

What happens if the market oozes up above 7520 points? (the dashed line on the chart)

We're looking for growth commencing toward 7556 points initially. Secondary, if bettered, comes in at 7613 points, unlikely unless China decided to keep PM May or the US Non Farm Payrolls "guesstimate" numbers surprise everyone.  Or perhaps more probable, GBPUSD makes an expected surge toward 1.45

There is something a little odd about our 7613 ambition as it donks against the solid blue downtrend, almost certain to provoke some hiccups.

Prior Months:

January 2018

December 2017

November 2017

October 2017

September 2017

August 2017

July 2017

June2017    All the usual culprits!

May2017

April 2017 BMR FLYBE TESLA Griifin Unilever 88 Energy United Airlines Sirius Ferrari Hays YouGov Lloyds Barclays RBS

March 2017 Aberdeen Ass Laura Ashley ARGOS A G BARR French Connection BHP AFC Aberdeen Asset Jubilee LLOYDS RBS BARC Debenhams GreatPortland Just Eat Sirius

February 2017 Ferrari Sound Proton Power SIRIUS_SXX Esure A)O World CARD Factory Gulf Keystone BMR RENTokill BARCLAYS LLOYDS RBS

January 2017 SIRIUS Ferrari Next Premier Vet GBPEUR LLOYDS SKY Capita FastJet Talk Talk British Telecom SKY Barclays RBS

December16 DOW JONES AO WORLD Ebay SIRIUS BMR Sirius Ferrari Next GBPEUR LLOYDS DIAGEO

November16 Includes FlyBe FastJet Johnston Press SKY Ferrari Rockhopper Lloyds Barclays RBS Sirius BMR Vodafone AMUR Minerals Chesnara Provexis

October16 Includes FTSE GBPEUR RBS Barclays The Dow Jones Ferrari Lloyds GOLD Strategic Minerals BMR PLUS500 DOW AGAIN Gulf Keystone Hurricane Countrywide Vodafone Zoldav

Sept16: Includes Range Resources Highland Natural Resources Cloudtag Tern Kodal UK Oil & Gas Gulf Keystone Hurricane Sirius Barclays San Leon Solo Chariot Sepura 88 Energy Gulf Keystone BMR Forbidden Tech HNR Sound Deutsche Bank Ferrari Twitter

August16 - includes Firstgroup Cobham Drax Edinburgh JimmyChoo Barclays Lloyds WilliamHill OilSector ProtonPower RBS DirectLine BMR JustEat BancaMonteDeiPaschidiSiena SiriusMinerals DixonsCarphone FERRARI Google SanLeon  WMIH  GulfKeystone