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Published 03/01/2018
THE FTSE (FTSE:UKX) Usually, the festive period is a "feet up" time with stock markets making pretend movements, designed to conceal prices actually being marched on the spot. Gleefully, we take full advantage of Scotland enjoying the 1st & 2nd off, following New Year. Oops moment!
Worse actually, half the team are still on holiday and when faced with TWENTY ONE targets met amongst shares on OUR first day back, it proved quite a shock to the system. The "problem" of course is the FTSE. We'd spent December banging on about the need for the FTSE to actually close above 7563. The index achieved this ambition at Xmas eve, cheerfully blasting skyward to 7700 in the period since. For some reason, this very real instance of "higher highs" always provokes some flamboyant behaviour but amongst FTSE 100 shares, there have been some truly wonderful breaks upward.
Except, of course, the retail banks.
The situation now is fairly simple. In the event of the FTSE bettering 7715 points anytime soon, it should commence a cycle toward 7840 points or so. Secondary, should such a target be exceeded, wanders along at 7896 points.
To spoil the party, the index requires break RED on the chart, currently lurking at 7540 points. Such a break computes with 7470 initially with secondary, if broken, a fairly traumatic 7320. This, of course, would turn Decembers dance steps into a "did that really happen" scenario...
Happy New Year and our very best wishes for the future. And futures.
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
11:18:18PM |
BRENT |
67.84 |
66.71 |
66.525 |
65.67 |
67.2 |
68 |
73.46 |
88.83 |
54.7 |
Success |
11:21:07PM |
US CRUD |
61.81 | |||||||||
11:24:04PM |
GOLD |
1313.73 | |||||||||
11:26:54PM |
FTSE |
7690 |
Stunner | ||||||||
11:28:53PM |
FRANCE |
5346 | |||||||||
11:30:33PM |
GERMANY |
13005 | |||||||||
11:32:38PM |
US500 |
2709.82 |
2667 |
2655.5 |
2636 |
2682 |
2710 |
2712 |
2727 |
2691 | |
11:35:31PM |
DOW |
24905 | |||||||||
11:38:27PM |
JAPAN |
23108 |
Published 21/12/2017
THE GRAND TOUR (EX:BBC) & SPAIN For some reason, doubtless related to the immediate prospect of grandchildren arriving for the next weeks, Jeremy Clarkson's latest episode of Grand Tour superseded the usual Thursday night flip flop through the Asian markets. Some say, it was more interesting.
Watching Mr C snowplough down a glacier either provided testament to an amazing actor or, quite genuinely, this was his first time on ski's . Regardless, it would be nice to enjoy the Bugatti which transported him to the slopes. It reminded of a trip to Australia and asking why the chairlift pylons where not covered with day-glo cushions such as Europe or the USA. The inebriated host answered;
"You'd need be a real **ck to hit one of these!"
Minutes later, as he sat on the pylon cross-beam, a snowboarder hit him. The steel pylon was not damaged in any way.
SPAIN, the IBEX 35, had been showing the potential of a coming droop to 9250 or so. The last straw looks like weakness below 9980 points. Curiously, during the session on the 21st Dec, the index was propelled above 10,300 making the drop calculation theoretically invalid. We're not entirely convinced as the forced upward growth from 2.45pm is starting to look like something which happens with AIM shares in the UK market, prior to a negative RNS the next day.
Our very best wishes for Christmas and the coming year.
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short At |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
1:57:17AM |
BRENT |
64.29 |
64.6 |
65.08 |
63.75 |
'cess | |||||
1:59:27AM |
US CRUD |
58.15 |
57.42 |
57.25 |
56.88 |
57.75 |
58.36 |
58.67 |
57.75 | ||
2:01:37AM |
FTSE |
7587.97 |
7611 |
7661 |
7513 |
Success | |||||
2:01:56AM |
GOLD |
Boring | |||||||||
2:05:39AM |
FRANCE |
5367 |
5340 |
5324 |
5302 |
5357 |
5390 |
5408.5 |
5340 |
Success | |
2:07:45AM |
DOW |
24800.2 |
24821 |
24832 |
24769 |
'cess |
Published 20/12/2017
FTSE FOR FRIDAY (ish) (FTSE:UKX) Past experience has taught, doing a "FTSE for..." when the day is Xmas eve will be an exercise in futility. Normally, the holiday morning spends the session doing nothing until the final few minutes, then the FTSE will make a movement. Usually the one it should make the previous day!
We're not terribly fond of the current scenario as everything indicated the FTSE was going to continue upward. Until - that is - our esteemed PM was broadcast live talking about Brexit. At this point, everything seemed go wrong with the index and laughably, our outdoors Xmas tree fell over, blocked the satellite dish, and interrupted Bloomberg. Perhaps, this was a real "strong & stable" Christmas miracle.
The situation now exists of weakness below 7510 points driving the FTSE down to a fairly safe sounding 7494 points. We'd favour some sort of bounce at this point. Secondary though, if 7494 breaks, calculates as 7452 points. Or perhaps 7434 points, thanks to a tiny little manipulation gap on the UK index at the open on Monday 18th.
If the above doom triggers, stop can be placed at just above 7548 points which is fairly reasonable.
Our surprise comes from the UK market previously showing every intention of scraping the 7,600 level prior to the end of year. If the index does indeed experience some recovery above 7548, we're looking for some continued growth toward 7565 points initially. Secondary, if bettered, comes along at 7590 points - reasonably close to our 7,600 ambition. If triggered, stop can probably be 7510 points.
And that's it! We're treating Thursday as "Friday" as "Friday" we're treating as a day off as it will be a waste of time. As Noddy once said, "It's Christmas". Thanks for reading this, enjoy a good break.
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
10:13:44PM |
BRENT |
64.16 |
63.39 |
63.115 |
64.11 |
64.27 |
64.415 |
63.37 |
'cess | ||
10:15:27PM |
US CRUD |
58.02 |
57.26 |
57.095 |
57.92 |
58.11 |
58.655 |
57.43 |
'cess | ||
10:17:17PM |
GOLD |
1265.97 |
1255 |
1252 |
1262 |
1267.77 |
1270.5 |
1256 | |||
10:19:24PM |
FTSE |
7528.76 |
7513 |
7503 |
7549 |
7550 |
7569.5 |
7513 | |||
10:22:58PM |
FRANCE |
5343.7 |
5335 |
5324 |
5380 |
5399 |
5416 |
5375 |
Success | ||
10:27:01PM |
GERMANY |
13070.83 |
13021 |
13010 |
13089 |
13113 |
13150.5 |
13055 |
Success | ||
10:30:15PM |
US500 |
2678.13 |
2675.5 |
2671.325 |
2685 |
2690 |
2695 |
2675 |
'cess | ||
10:42:22PM |
DOW |
24732 |
24711 |
24673 |
24790 |
24790 |
24832 |
24735 | |||
10:45:04PM |
JAPAN |
22820 |
22681 |
22645 |
22820 |
22910 |
22921.5 |
22808 |
Published 19/12/2017
BARCLAYS BANK (LSE:BARC) A day spent, applying nail varnish, tends explain the ridiculous sums people spend in "Nail Bars". It all started when a favourite keyboard began needing healthy thumps to make the space bar work, along with someone noticing only the 'F' & 'Q' keys were actually visible.
A constant beef with Microsofts flagship keyboard, the grandly named 'Office Sculpt', has been the unpleasant detail of keys wearing away. Numerous replacement stickers also wear out fast and being one of the lucky people who don't need look at a keyboard, it's not actually a major problem. Until, that is, the mistake is made of looking down while typing as this is the point where the brain instantly forgets everything. When the replacement keyboard set arrived, the suggestion was made that clear Nail Varnish be applied to each key. It made a lot of sense, an argument quickly demolished by the utter boredom involved delicately painting each key, then gently blowing to speed up the drying process.
Thankfully, a day where we'd intended examine Barclays share price ensured ample time given, while retraining as a "Nail Bar painter!" To describe the session as boring risks considerable understatement. A trading range of 0.9p for a 2 quid share verged on silly.
There was a reason we were stalking Barclays.
The share recently managed to close above 199.378p, the downtrend since February 2007. Generally, when a share breaks above a long term trend, we anticipate a degree of flamboyant behaviour. In the case of Barclays, we'd hope it would step into Christmas with a surge toward the 219p level. The implication, should 219p be bettered, is of a sleigh ride upward to a jolly 245p in the future.
However, it's proving as boring as a fairytale in New York. And now, running out of annoying festive clichés, what we do expect with a share which refuses to go up?
Normally they become rangebound, trapped for a while until a material change in circumstance provokes some proper movement. In the case of Barclays, the visuals suggest any rise is liable to stumble around the 210p mark, the level of the prior high before the trend break. This, invariably, brings the threat of a glass ceiling forming along with a share price bonking around between the pink line at 182 currently and the invisible rooftop. We'd be justified in concern should the price ever now find an excuse to close a session below 182p as this would tend promise an attempt at the long term RED uptrend, currently 134p.
For Barclays, like our nail varnish day, it appears patience will probably be required.
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
10:21:22PM |
BRENT |
63.54 | |||||||||
10:23:28PM |
US CRUD |
57.65 |
Success | ||||||||
10:25:42PM |
GOLD |
1262.19 | |||||||||
10:28:27PM |
FTSE |
7536.38 |
'cess | ||||||||
10:30:36PM |
FRANCE |
5380.2 | |||||||||
10:33:08PM |
GERMANY |
13232.99 | |||||||||
10:35:29PM |
US500 |
2682.17 |
2679 |
2675.5 |
2669 |
2687 |
2695.1 |
2697 |
2700.3 |
2686 | |
10:38:14PM |
DOW |
24764 |
'cess | ||||||||
10:40:26PM |
JAPAN |
22800 |
22767 |
22705.5 |
22605 |
22855 |
22970 |
22996.5 |
23179 |
22855 |
Success |
Published 18/12/2017
The Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE:RBS) It's time for our monthly moan about RBS, the bank that likes to say "doh". Oddly though, for four days earlier this month, the company share price actually managed to close a session above the trend since 2008 - currently 279.25p. Usually this is something giving some hope, suggesting a downtrend which can be bettered.
Or perhaps we've drawn the wrong line!
This is actually doubtful, given the level of fascination the share illustrates against this BLUE line. It does tell us, rather than hoping for a trend break, the only signal we now dare trust shall be this banks share price illustrating "higher highs". If we were asked to pick a "safe trading scenario", it appears closure now above just 286p should produce circumstances where growth to a near term 302p makes a lot of sense. Equally sensible, though unlikely if we say it aloud, is the secondary which calculates as a longer term 353p.
To be fair, the price has already ticked many of the boxes allowing for 353p making a guest appearance in the future and our only worry has been the respect shown by the market to this downtrend. It's almost as if "they" do not wish this price to go up just yet.
If this reticence against growth is indeed correct, the immediate RED uptrend since 2016 is currently lurking at 256p and presents a real risk of the share remaining trapped for a while. Below RED would certainly justify some alarm, along with a trip down to 244p. Visually, this would stink and tend confirm the market does not wish RBS share price to head into the santa zone, onward and upward.
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
10:11:13PM |
BRENT |
63.07 |
62.12 |
61.31 |
59.94 |
63.55 |
63.55 |
64.125 |
64.93 |
62.04 | |
10:14:24PM |
US CRUD |
57.34 |
Success | ||||||||
10:23:10PM |
GOLD |
1262.59 | |||||||||
10:25:26PM |
FTSE |
7544.83 |
Success | ||||||||
10:27:30PM |
FRANCE |
5420.2 |
5380 |
5367 |
5348 |
5422 |
5424 |
5433.5 |
5468 |
5380 |
Success |
10:30:56PM |
GERMANY |
13318 |
Success | ||||||||
10:34:02PM |
US500 |
2693.36 |
Success | ||||||||
10:36:20PM |
DOW |
24810.8 |
Success | ||||||||
10:36:20PM |
DOW. |
Getting hard calculating longs | |||||||||
10:41:11PM |
JAPAN |
22980 |
Success |
Published 17/12/2017
FTSE THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX) Anyone who read our Friday report hopefully noticed the accuracy of our comments. The FTSE DID indeed open slightly down. Then also obliged with a drizzle down to 7433 points. Then it climbed and climbed. It's one thing to give targets but to project accurately just how a day performs takes some experience. And yes, some luck too.
As we sledge downhill increasingly fast toward 1:15pm on Friday with the stock market closing for Christmas, and the inevitable rush with traders spending money, buying unneeded presents for ungrateful spouse's, there's only one question left. One with real importance. (note: we do have a sense of humour, just no sodding Xmas presents yet due to time constraints!)
Will the FTSE actually hit 7545 points?
Really, that's all that matters to us now. If the index achieves such a level and actually betters it, 2018 is liable to start rather well. We shall be forced to concede anything above 7545 now has a 100 point potential gain to around 7640 points - initially - with secondary, if bettered, a longer term 7726 points.
While there's a risk of sounding all "Bitcoiny" with these FTSE targets, remember London only needs actually close a session above 7562 which will paint the otherwise very boring year as ending, finally, in a Higher High scenario. Or in plain English, we shall now mention 8,200 points in the future, perhaps even 8,750 as a level where the FTSE almost must extend the hand of volatility.
Regardless of our optimism, we shall be glad to see the back of 2017 due to the FTSE's incredibly boring 500 point range lasting a full 12 months. This facet of life has been reflected amongst shares as a heck of a lot of them did very little during the year.
Finally, to give a touch of reality, the FTSE needs below 7,100 to justify serious concerns for the future as we'd expect 6,900 shortly thereafter, perhaps even 6,600 if someone has done something really silly.
Our best wishes for the season.
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
11:11:34PM |
FTSE |
7498 |
'cess | ||||||||
11:16:23PM |
FRANCE |
5359 | |||||||||
11:19:40PM |
GERMANY |
13141 |
13053 |
12999 |
12920 |
13151 |
13145 |
13184.5 |
13244 |
13048 | |
11:23:10PM |
US CRUD |
57.31 |
'cess | ||||||||
11:26:12PM |
US500 |
2677 |
'cess | ||||||||
9:53:19PM |
DOW |
24664 |
'cess | ||||||||
9:56:16PM |
JAPAN |
22698 |
'cess | ||||||||
9:59:44PM |
GOLD |
1255.58 |
1248 |
1244.5 |
1238.7 |
1257 |
1261.75 |
1264.875 |
1269 |
1250 |
'cess |
10:04:41PM |
BRENT | ||||||||||
10:04:41PM |
BRENT. |
Raw data error |
Published 14/12/2017
FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) Sometimes we wonder at our logic. For instance, the FTSE is now regarded as probably going up but from the point at which it closed Thursday, it'll probably go down a bit first. Closing the day at 7448 points, we'll not be aghast to witness weakness toward 7431 points, then a bounce.
Visually, it seems the 7431 level shall prove important, one of these "must bounce" levels if only due to a developing risk of trades below such a point allowing a potential 90 point droop. In itself, this is not entirely calamitous, the RED line currently indicating the FTSE needs below 7270 to justify full scale panic.
In an ideal world, we'll expect the FTSE to therefore open Friday around 7445 points, perhaps dribble down to 7431 or so, then bounce. This, in theory, allows a LONG position to be taken with a stop loss point placed a tad below the 7431 point.
This is where we need get all "Mystic Meg", due to projecting growth from a point not yet achieved. Any bounce capable of bettering 7485 calculates as being taken very seriously, movement toward 7497 being our initial ambition. Secondary, if bettered, comes along at 7514 points and places the market in a hellishly strong position in the run up to Christmas.
Of course, they say not plan survives contact with real life, so what happens if the FTSE does not drop at the open?
If we play with the scenario of the FTSE being opened slightly UP at 7485 points, our inclination will be to go back to bed. Unless the index is willing to better BLUE on the chart, the day is liable to be a waste of time, fluttering between the 7431 point and the BLUE downtrend.
Have a good weekend.
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
9:26:26PM |
BRENT |
63.13 |
61.72 |
61.49 |
59.94 |
63.71 |
64.12 |
65.07 |
66.18 |
62.8 | |
9:28:28PM |
US CRUD |
57.22 |
'cess | ||||||||
9:32:05PM |
GOLD |
1252.69 | |||||||||
9:35:33PM |
FTSE |
7458.95 |
'cess | ||||||||
9:37:38PM |
FRANCE |
5338.7 |
Success | ||||||||
9:39:49PM |
GERMANY |
13026 | |||||||||
9:46:00PM |
US500 |
2650.02 |
Success | ||||||||
9:49:22PM |
DOW |
24527 |
24509 |
24495.5 |
24435 |
24580 |
24653 |
24686 |
24745 |
24579 |
Shambles |
9:51:44PM |
JAPAN |
22573 |
Success |
Published 13/12/2017
Lloyds Bank (LSE:LLOY) It's time for our monthly visit to Lloyds where we shuffle words around to try disguise the fact we're saying the same thing we've said for the last few months. Oddly though, this time we are saying it with a vague expectation something is about to happen.
To sprinkle some sanity on our optimism, the BLUE downtrend since 2015 is currently around the 69.07p mark and from our perspective, drooling over Lloyds share price is NOT permitted until such time the share actually closes above this line. Until then, we'd regard unbridled optimism as a touch dangerous. However...
On the 13th December, Lloyds price did something a bit odd, confirming the forced upward nudge last week was indeed an effort to shock this price out from hibernation. The immediate position is therefore fairly interesting as now, a mid-price bettering 67.75p should prove capable of moves to an initial (fairly inconsequential) 68.9p. Quite critical, again from our viewpoint, shall be any moves bettering 68.9p due to this calculating with 70.5p and a fair degree of hope the price intends close above BLUE.
While the lords of gullible will suggest the share price will execute a major breakout manoeuvre, we rather suspect the 74p level will provide some stutters in any future rising cycle, given the glass ceiling which still exists since the start of 2016. Common sense indicates only with closure above 74p dare we suggest drooling optimism as there's very little to inhibit another 30% growth cycle commencing.
Of course, the price is not yet safe, so we are indeed recycling several months reports. If the market now finds an excuse to stuff this below 64p, we'd be inclined to a panic update of this report. We cannot be the only folk noticing the Head & Shoulders formation formed since the start of 2017. While most chart patterns are utter tosh, if you consider the logic behind buy/sell patterns which provokes a H&S (confidence, more confidence, less confidence, even less confidence, run for it!) the concept actually makes sense. Of course, the market also knows this and thus, closure below RED would make sense before taking this pattern too seriously.
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
9:52:50PM |
BRENT |
62.31 |
Success | ||||||||
9:55:25PM |
US CRUD |
56.67 |
56.5 |
56.14 |
55.33 |
57.27 |
57.95 |
58.455 |
59.11 |
57.22 | |
9:58:09PM |
GOLD |
1255.89 |
'cess | ||||||||
10:00:04PM |
FTSE |
7493.1 | |||||||||
10:02:46PM |
FRANCE |
5384.7 | |||||||||
10:05:32PM |
GERMANY |
13093.39 |
Shambles | ||||||||
10:08:03PM |
US500 |
2665.89 |
2662 |
2658 |
2655.66 |
2667 |
2672.5 |
2676 |
2682.7 |
2662 |
'cess |
10:11:17PM |
DOW |
24631 |
Success | ||||||||
10:15:04PM |
JAPAN |
22688 |
Success |
Published 12/12/2017
CARD FACTORY - again (LSE:CARD) When we gave this as one of our ISA shares for 2017 (link here) the share price has performed in a fashion which makes the UK Brexit bloke seem sensible. It went up, it met our targets, it collapsed. But thankfully, with nothing close to our expectations.
Perhaps the Xmas Card nonsense shall provide a saviour for the price has not yet come close to our current drop expectations at an initial 250p with secondary, if broken, at a longer term 213p and hopefully a proper bounce.
In fact, to escape the immediate rate of descent, the price only requires better BLUE on the chart - currently 283p - as this should permit some recovery toward 295p. If such ambition is bettered, our secondary calculates at 305p BUT it may actually prove to be 335p, thanks to the circled manipulation gap on the chart fouling our numbers up.
Our policy of giving primary and secondary targets is designed to give a fairly simple method of viewing price shuffled. Any initial target represents a number where, even if bettered, some reversal is probable. In theory, this gives an active trader the chance to take some profit, wait see what happens, and re-enter the trade next time the prior level is beaten as the secondary should make its presence known in the longer term.
But against shares like this, where we've shown a manipulation circle, it can be worth engaging the brain due to the salient detail of our 335 number being higher than the prior high, more than likely to indicate at least an attempt at the circle coming. There's another facet worth remembering - the circle designates one of our GaGa things, a Gap Up Gap Down which always tend(ed) present themselves as a coming trauma indicator during earlier 2017. The fact the price has not actually achieved our grotty 250p perhaps indicates residual strength, along with the GaGa manipulation now being exhausted.
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
10:38:04PM |
BRENT |
63.53 |
Shambles | ||||||||
10:40:26PM |
US CRUD |
57.45 |
Shambles | ||||||||
10:46:52PM |
GOLD |
1244.12 |
'cess | ||||||||
10:49:31PM |
FTSE |
7492.92 |
'cess | ||||||||
10:57:26PM |
FRANCE |
5420.7 |
Success | ||||||||
10:59:43PM |
GERMANY |
13176 |
13104 |
13072.5 |
13035 |
13145 |
13181 |
13197 |
13237 |
13145 | |
11:02:30PM |
US500 |
2665.12 |
'cess | ||||||||
11:06:04PM |
DOW |
24521 |
'cess | ||||||||
11:08:10PM |
JAPAN |
22901 |
22797 |
22736.5 |
22656 |
22931 |
22980 |
23008.5 |
23079 |
22837 |
Published 11/12/2017
MARSTONS PLC (LSE:MARS) The current meteor shower (think it is The Haemorrhoids) reminded just how bright Mars shines in the current dark winter sky. It also served to remind us to update our outlook against Marstons share price as we last glanced at them in early 2015
This is a funny little share, not expressing spectacular price potentials but instead, presents a picture of something which just tends perform as expected. Currently trading at 121p, the share price need only better 121.5 to commence a logical cycle to 131p next. As the immediate BLUE downtrend indicates, there appears little impediment to achieve 131p anytime soon. The funny thing comes with closure above 131p as it shall prove difficult to inhibit the chances of 145p making an appearance.
This target level is a nuisance, effectively matching the high of 2017 and suggesting we should expect a stumble should such a level be achieved. The important thing will be CLOSURE above 145 as a revisit to the prior high of 176p should make a lot of sense.
For now, we certainly can be fairly enthusiastic for an initial 131p making itself known.
It trouble planned, the price needs below 100p to justify real panic as the best we could hope will be a bounce at 83p
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
10:30:29PM |
DOW |
24428.3 |
'cess | ||||||||
10:33:16PM |
BRENT |
64.5 |
'cess | ||||||||
10:35:42PM |
US CRUD |
58.04 |
'cess | ||||||||
10:39:46PM |
GOLD |
1242.09 |
1240 |
1235 |
1218 |
1270 |
1255 |
1258.35 |
1264.2 |
1245 |
Shambles |
10:42:13PM |
FTSE |
7471.2 |
Success | ||||||||
10:44:05PM |
FRANCE |
5404 |
5380 |
5375.5 |
5359 |
5400 |
5404 |
5408.5 |
5418 |
5382 |
'cess |
10:47:11PM |
GERMANY |
13168 | |||||||||
10:51:12PM |
US500 |
2663.11 |
'cess | ||||||||
10:54:48PM |
JAPAN |
22928 |
'cess |
Published 10/12/2017
FTSE this week (FTSE:UKX) & GBP EUR In common with, we suspect, most of the UK, we've some doubts as to the integrity of any vaunted agreement between our esteemed leaders and the European mob. However, currency markets appear on the verge of taking it seriously.
The immediate situation with GBPEUR appears to be near term moves above 1.1408 pointing at 1.1484 again. This, visually, appears quite a key level due to the glass ceiling which has formed since June as this ambition hints at a coming break. In the event of 1.1484 being bettered, our secondary comes along at 1.1615, firmly placing the pairing in the land of higher highs, perfectly capable of fairly strong longer term potentials. To trash the immediate potentials, the pair need only drip below the recent uptrend, currently at 1.11
FTSE THIS WEEK. Surprisingly, the FTSE managed achieve our secondary near term target on Friday and has created an interesting situation. Near term, above 7416 points should produce a good argument favouring some reasonable behaviour in the coming week. Above this level nudges open the door for coming growth toward 7477 points. The visuals on the chart tend indicate this is a fairly important level, effectively slightly bettering a prior high on the UK index. This allegedly should prove capable of a longer term 7600 points.
By snatching the word "allegedly" out of the ether, we're illustrating considerable doubts at the FTSE managing an all new high before the end of this year as it risks the market going all 'Bitcoin' during 2018. What we mean by this is simple - a potential surge toward 7870 points becoming probable!
For now, if the market intends a serious slow down, below 7288 points strongly suggests reversal toward 7125 points along with a potential donk against the floor level which has formed during 2017. Below such a point and serious danger looms.
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
4:20:24PM |
BRENT |
63.21 |
61.32 |
61 |
60.26 |
61.86 |
63.51 |
64.1 |
65.11 |
62.43 |
'cess |
4:22:58PM |
US CRUD |
57.35 |
'cess | ||||||||
4:26:08PM |
GOLD |
1248.86 | |||||||||
4:29:40PM |
FTSE |
7409.8 |
'cess | ||||||||
4:31:32PM |
FRANCE |
5407.7 |
Success | ||||||||
4:33:26PM |
GERMANY |
13165 |
13118 |
13081.5 |
13028 |
13193 |
13242 |
13276 |
13432 |
13122 |
'cess |
4:36:42PM |
US500 |
2652.26 |
Success | ||||||||
4:39:40PM |
DOW |
24322.5 | |||||||||
4:42:19PM |
JAPAN |
22875 |
Success |
Published 07/12/2017
FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) Sometimes, the utter boredom inflicted by the market leads one down a strange path. Thursday was a case in point, the morning session used productively by figuring out the lead guitar bit of Girls Aloud tune, "Love Machine". Only once note perfect did the "why" question rear its head?
After all, in this day and age, there's Twitter if needing an excuse to waste a morning. Or Reddit, if wanting a smile and a black hole several hours deep. But playing Girls Aloud defined an all new level of idiocy, especially when several tons of logs await being chopped into firewood. If course, it's all to do with grand-children, a pending Xmas invasion, and their dodgy taste in music.
But yes, the FTSE was seriously boring on Thursday. The funny thing was, we'd been speculating a bounce from 7292 points but the lowest achieved was 7314. Perhaps this indicates some strength, perhaps they day ran out of time. If the markets behaviour this week remains true to form, should the FTSE open down around the 7300 point level, it would make some visual sense to anticipate a bounce. Key shall be the market bettering 7360 points as this opens the door for 7385 and an new December high. This will actually be pretty important, allowing a secondary of 7412 points along with a stumble of some sort.
What happens should the index make it below 7292 points?
Reversal to 7235 makes a lot of sense and hopefully a proper bounce. The consequence of 7235 breaking is quite grim as we can calculate a further 100 point drop. If triggered, the sanest stop above 7292 comes in at 7360 but it's worth remembering the market DID NOT drop to this level on Thursday and if our suspicion of strength is correct, short positions are liable to underperform.
Finally, it's US Payrolls day, perfectly capable of screwing everything up at 1:30pm. Be warned.
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
10:29:20PM |
BRENT |
62.03 |
'cess | ||||||||
10:31:24PM |
US CRUD |
56.64 | |||||||||
10:34:04PM |
GOLD |
1247.2 |
Success | ||||||||
10:36:36PM |
FTSE |
7319 | |||||||||
10:38:53PM |
FRANCE |
5391.7 |
'cess | ||||||||
10:41:40PM |
GERMANY |
13117 |
12960 |
12917.5 |
12851 |
13058 |
13117 |
13138 |
13248 |
13020 | |
10:44:12PM |
US500 |
2640.1 |
'cess | ||||||||
10:47:38PM |
DOW |
24225.8 |
Shambles | ||||||||
10:50:40PM |
JAPAN |
22623 |
22308 |
22247.5 |
22117 |
22454 |
22641 |
22665.5 |
22877 |
22448 |
Success |
Published 06/12/2017
RENTOKIL (LSE:RTO) Rentokil was one of our proposals for an ISA candidate in February. It's due a bit of an update as, similar to AG Barr (a solid 15% rise), the share price has now met and exceeded our target levels. In fact, it doubled BARR's performance with a 30% rise.
Our last view against Rentokil (link here) proposed 316p as a major point of interest. While the share is currently trading around 312p, we've another demand to make on it, one which may warrant the share's inclusion again during 2018.
Essentially, if the price now manages to actually CLOSE above 336p we can calculate the price entering a path toward 433p. Secondary, if bettered, comes in at a less comfortable 535p which would be an all time high for the share. Back in 1999 the price achieved 475p and common sense suggests a stumble should such a glory be revisited. After all, there's bound to be folk trapped who shall gleefully bail in the scenario of a return to their purchase price.
On the chart below, we've painted a dashing Red line which is currently at 198p. Realistically, Rentokil needs break this level to cancel its long term prospects but it's also an unpleasantly wide stop loss level. If we attempt to refine our calculations, there's a real danger of movement below 284p driving reversal to 242p. This would be extremely dangerous, placing the price at risk of reversal to 197p, a number which will obviously trash the long term uptrend anytime next year. So, if feeling brave, a stop could be emplaced around the 280 level. Or lower, if equipped with deep pockets.
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
10:19:04PM |
BRENT |
61.19 |
Success | ||||||||
10:21:02PM |
US CRUD |
56 |
'cess | ||||||||
10:25:16PM |
GOLD |
1263.81 | |||||||||
10:28:16PM |
FTSE |
7345.57 |
'cess | ||||||||
10:30:44PM |
FRANCE |
5369 |
5314 |
5301 |
5288 |
5334 |
5384 |
5390.5 |
5416 |
5365 |
Success |
10:33:21PM |
GERMANY |
13013.94 |
Success | ||||||||
10:35:21PM |
US500 |
2632.22 |
2619.63 |
2616 |
2600 |
2628 |
2634 |
2636.685 |
2642.37 |
2624 | |
10:37:55PM |
DOW |
24176 |
'cess | ||||||||
10:40:56PM |
JAPAN |
22233 |
Success |
Published 05/12/2017
A G BARR (LSE:BAG) This lot last featured in February (link here) where we proposed them as an ISA candidate. We've tried avoid discussing price movements since but their 'The Snowman' Xmas TV advert (in Scotland only?) makes them hard to ignore - lyrically a work of genius.
To get the self congratulatory nonsense out of the way, it was trading at 521 when we mentioned it. Giving 526 as a trigger level, the price rose to our initial 556 level, stuttered a while, then rose to our 605p level. In fact, the share appears to be finding the 605 level strangely hypnotic, like a journalist who only writes about Brexit or Trump. Quite odd and frankly, it gets boring after a while!
The BLUE line on the chart is a potential downtrend, dating from 2011. We're not entirely convinced this trend line shall prove valid as the share price requires bettering 628 sometime soon to hopefully provoke a movement to 639p. The important thing - from our perspective - will be intraday traffic should such an event occur as this will tell us whether our suspicion BLUE is "a thing" is correct or rubbish. Should the price succeed in actually closing above BLUE, we'd hope the 639 thing shall be a footnote in history as continued fizz upward to 680 becomes viable. Secondary, if bettered, is a long term 774p.
Of course, we always like to explore the miserable side of life as, should the price not manage above BLUE anytime soon, we're able to calculate weakness below 596p causing leakage down to 568p. This takes the share into scary territory, the land of lower lows. And should 568p break, we'd be looking for bottom at 499p and a bounce.
This, alas, would ensure the share joins the FTSE itself in making 2017 a virtual waste of time, the year when nothing really happened.
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
10:55:12PM |
BRENT |
62.61 | |||||||||
10:57:23PM |
US CRUD |
57.49 |
57.06 |
56.445 |
55.59 |
57.92 |
57.95 |
58.23 |
58.47 |
57.17 |
'cess |
11:00:39PM |
GOLD |
1266.4 |
'cess | ||||||||
11:09:06PM |
FTSE |
7312.55 |
'cess | ||||||||
11:11:56PM |
FRANCE |
5360.5 | |||||||||
11:25:04PM |
GERMANY |
13013 | |||||||||
11:29:09PM |
US500 |
2629.67 | |||||||||
11:31:48PM |
DOW |
24198 |
Success | ||||||||
11:35:30PM |
JAPAN |
22474 |
22436 |
22409 |
22325 |
22597 |
22638 |
22690.5 |
22780 |
22525 |
Published 04/12/2017
PROSPEX OIL revisited. (LSE:PXOG) When discussing share prices, sometimes we will appear to use "weasel words" in what can be perceived as an attempt to cover our derrière. The truth is rather more boring - share prices usually do not go straight to target.
Prospex is a case in point. Near term (ie, probably this week) it appears movement above just 0.84p will indicate growth to an utterly useless target of 0.96p. Any self respecting AIM share will ensure such a trading prospect is gobbled up by the spread but for us, of particular interest will a mid-price of 0.96p if bettered. For us, this indicates underlying strength and thus, despite any near term shenanigans, it will open the door for continued growth to 1.175p next.
At this point, the share starts become really interesting as such an ambition bonks against the immediate downtrend from September last year!
Normally, we'd embrace a cautionary note at such a level, realistically expecting some sort of reversal should 1.175 make an appearance. However, there's something quite important worth remembering. Whatever provoked the nasty droop back in January (RED HIGHLIGHT) DID NOT happen with the price being manipulated (gapped) downward. Therefore, despite the share effectively flatlining for most of this year, the lack of a gap tells us the share was not moved to a new trading range - something the market tends defend. Instead, the drop was simply part of a "normal" trading cycle and thus, anything above 1.175 is liable to be useful as continued growth toward 1.5p makes sense.
In fact, above 1.5p will tend suggest a coming attempt at the dashing BLUE line will become a viable ambition.
Last time we covered this lot, we vaguely apologised for its inclusion. We'd guess quite a few folk are keeping their eye on this, due to it once again featuring heavily in our email recently. About the only sensible warning we can give relates to the RED line on the chart. If it gets below 0.45p anytime now, asking Santa for running shoes may prove a wise policy.
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
10:15:12PM |
BRENT |
62.39 | |||||||||
10:17:19PM |
US CRUD |
57.45 | |||||||||
10:20:05PM |
GOLD |
1276.47 |
1270.9 |
1263.395 |
1254.79 |
1278 |
1278 |
1280.03 |
1283 |
1271 | |
10:25:41PM |
FTSE |
7320.47 |
'cess | ||||||||
10:36:34PM |
FRANCE |
5375 |
5354 |
5335.5 |
5327 |
5406 |
5406 |
5427 |
5453 |
5348 |
'cess |
10:39:09PM |
GERMANY |
13029 |
Success | ||||||||
10:41:51PM |
US500 |
2637.89 |
Success | ||||||||
10:41:51PM |
US500. |
clueless | |||||||||
10:45:00PM |
DOW |
24305.8 |
Success | ||||||||
10:48:08PM |
JAPAN |
22480 |
Success |
Published 03/12/2017
The FTSE this week (FTSE:UKX) We tend take absurd efforts in measuring index movement as part of our ongoing attempts to identify pressures which will effect the FTSE. Sometimes these efforts can be wasted, sometimes they bare extraordinary fruit.
We mentioned the other day relying on the USA to give a clue for coming UK direction is a waste of time. Equally, the European indices generally do their own thing. Overnight pressures from Asia will sometimes give sufficient force to give the FTSE a firm push at the open but usually only if there has been substantial oomph from the Nikkei or ASX. For now, there's a bit of a "however" making itself known due to some interesting dance steps from Japan.
Essentially, if the NK225 makes it above 23,000 points, there's a pretty good chance from quite strong upward pressure for around 500 points. This is the sort of thing very liable to put a spring in the FTSE' step, especially as Japan is already painting higher highs for the first time in 20 years and viewed on a long term path toward 27,600 as our next major point of interest.
Similarly, should Australia stumble above 6050 points, we're looking at longer term growth to 6,900 points commencing.
As for the DOW, it's liable to prove fascinating in the coming week with any impetus above 24279 points. It's easy to envisage it painting new levels of ambition just above the 24,400 point.
Meanwhile, we're stuck with the "strong and stable" FTSE which is neither going down as far as it should nor is it gaining with any integrity. The immediate outlook now demands the FTSE better 7443 currently before any rise be taken seriously. Such a motion allows for growth toward 7483 points initially. This is liable to be quite a big deal, suggesting continued aviation history can be made in the direction of 7550 points. Beyond such a level, there remains sufficient impetus into the 7600's. If triggered, the tightest sane stop feels like it need be 7347 points which is painfully wide.
On the flop side, below 7288 would still concern us as 7233 awaits, perhaps even quite a lot worse if this level breaks as there's a serious risk of the FTSE confirming the bottom of this years trading range at 7,100 points.
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
10:16:11PM |
BRENT |
63.6 |
62.25 |
62.11 |
61.69 |
62.98 |
63.49 |
63.985 |
64.6 |
62.77 | |
10:17:59PM |
US CRUD |
58.28 | |||||||||
10:19:57PM |
GOLD |
1280.82 | |||||||||
10:27:47PM |
FTSE |
7332.64 |
'cess | ||||||||
10:34:45PM |
FRANCE |
5340 | |||||||||
10:37:13PM |
GERMANY |
12943 |
12920 |
12890 |
12851 |
13002 |
12950 |
13013.75 |
13043 |
12860 |
Success |
10:38:54PM |
US500 |
2641 |
'cess | ||||||||
10:41:11PM |
DOW |
24216.2 | |||||||||
10:43:04PM |
JAPAN |
22618 |
'cess |
June2017 All the usual culprits!
December16 DOW JONES AO WORLD Ebay SIRIUS BMR Sirius Ferrari Next GBPEUR LLOYDS DIAGEO
***