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Published 30/11/2017 

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) After all these years, we've yet to decide if "after hours" futures movements give any indication whatsoever to expect on the FTSE the next day. Our rule of thumb relates to the Japan & Australian markets. If they've moved by more than 1.5% in any direction, the FTSE will doubtless follow suit.

Few folk can remain ignorant of the disconnect between the US markets and the UK. In the last 5 years, we've seen a tenuous relationship stretch, then finally break and nowadays, relying on the DOW to give a clue as to FTSE behaviour is like relying on Boris to give an indication of correct UK policy.

Our reason for this diatribe comes from a plunge in the futures market during the evening of the 30th. We're currently indicating weakness below 7326 on the FTSE should bring a bottom of 7308 points. The given threat, if 7308 breaks significantly, is for continued weakness coming toward 7233 points as best hope for a real bounce.

The real problem arises in the event of 7233 breaking as there's a sodding great chance of the index opting to challenge the bottom of this years rotten trading range, just above 7100 points.

We've a fairly massive "however" regarding the 7308 thing. This number repeats worse the courgette and we hate being spoonfed the obvious, due to the markets sense of humour. During November, there were repeated small indications the FTSE intended some growth, along with repeated efforts to drive the index down. Often, it feels like the market "gives up" this behaviour producing a completely surprise surge in the opposite direction. As a result...

Above 7410 should prove capable of growth fairly sharply toward 7470 points. Secondary, if bettered, makes itself known at 7525 points.

For now, it's fingers crossed time, along with the hope any break below 7308 happens in the opening seconds of the FTSE on Friday 1st December. Generally, our inclination with this behaviour will be to expect near term growth.

Published 29/11/2017 

LAIRD (LSE:LRD) In the great scheme of things, few things define utter boredom more than Lairds share price during the last six months. But oddly we'd a flurry of requests for an update, so perhaps something interesting is possible.

Let's just say we're a bit sceptical!

Last time we reviewed this, we'd given the potential of a big picture drop to 127p, something the price achieved at the tail end of last year. Given dance steps during November, if now appears weakness below 141p should probably give another drip down to 127p yet again. There's a pretty major issue at 127p, due to the RED line on the chart.

This particular trend risks being particularly nasty as weakness below is very liable to provoke sharp reversal to 107p.

There's something rather interesting at the 107p level as it's one of these big picture things, a point where there's almost a law demanding a proper bounce.

When viewing the trend since the share price was mashed downward last year, there's a pretty strong suggestion it requires only better 161p currently (BLUE) to provoke growth to 179p. Our secondary, if such a level bettered, comes along at 195p. Visually, this virtually matches the price high in March and thus can be expected to give some sort of stumble. Only with closure beyond 195p dare we express optimism for the future as some extraordinary recovery becomes possible.

For now, we suspect it worth watching in case 107p makes an appearance.

Finally, thanks for the emails regarding chocolate Xmas tree ornaments. Glad to know other folk love watching their grandchildren's face light up as they unwrap the coin and discover a cardboard circle!

Published 28/11/2017 

THE UK POUND vs THE EURO Inspired by Mrs T&T returning from the supermarket with an expensive bag of gold foil covered chocolate coins for the Xmas tree, a look at how Sterling is performing makes a lot of sense. In recent months, many feints on this pairing serve to confuse but we're not inclined to any optimism unless the relationship betters 1.145 - BLUE in the chart.

To cut to the chase, lacklustre moves tend make us suspect and weakness now below 1.11 will once again find its way down to the 1.0845 point and a probable bounce against the RED uptrend line since 2008. A very real problem comes should RED be broken as continued limp movement down to 1.0715 becomes very probable.

As the chart highlights, this is an issue.

The RED uptrend since 2008 has, as the two light red lines show, been a somewhat fluid construct. Despite the pairing recovering above the most recent iteration of this trend line, we're inclined to view the drop earlier in 2017 as a warning signal. If this were a share, we'd harbour strong suspicions the ultimate intent is for 1.02 as best case calculation. Worst case calculation comes along at 0.83.

So, now we've enjoyed spreading some festive misery, it'd be daft to ignore the salient detail the pairing actually does not require much work to escape our grotty outlook. The immediate situation is fairly interesting with the relationship only needing better 1.13 to suggest near term growth toward 1.135. In itself, this isn't really worth note but should Sterling manage above 1.135 we're looking for coming growth toward 1.152. This fairly comprehensively betters the downtrend since 2015 and makes future movement toward 1.21 believable.

And this would prove a really big deal, taking our once proud chocolate coins above the prior glass ceiling at 1.20 and into a region where visits to the UK by tourists become more expensive as we're looking at 1.32 as a realistic growth target.

For now, we're braced for the worst. And hoping for the best. And do all wifes point out how many chocolate coins they intend hang on the Christmas tree when it goes up? The distrust is shocking, absolutely shocking!

Published 27/11/2017 

CENTRICA (LSE:CNA) We managed to get past the USA Turkey Festival without mentioning Gulf Keystone once! Something of an achievement as the open goal in recent years made GKP an obvious victim. Alas, this year we would have been reduced to talking about stuffing...

As for CNA, we have a massive argument demanding it bounce from 136p. Or at least, we had, prior to the market opting to gap the share price down to our supposed "bottom" level the other day. When a share price illustrates this sort of manipulation, we always regard is as the opening salvo of a new trend developing and, as it was forced down, it's unlikely such a trend shall be upward.

The immediate situation is a little awkward with the price requiring better 149.5p to give a clue of bottom being "in" and some moves toward 156p can commence. While this comes close to covering the manipulation gap, ideally we'd demand the share price better Light Blue, the prior downtrend currently at 165p, before daring make the assumption the market has made a dreadful mistake and intends correct the error. Who knows, perhaps some bright spark will come along with a good idea.

In our experience, this isn't going to happen without game changing news.

More likely, it now appears any weakness below 133p risks a continued drop cycle toward 102p with some bounce potential. The severe (and stupid sounding) secondary calculates at 66p. This is a point where we'd hope some real recovery to commence.

Finally, the share price requires exceed Dark Blue, currently 197p, for hope of generating some proper upward travel.

Published 26/11/2017

FTSE this Week (FTSE:UKX) We've had pretty good reason to expect some good "stuff" from the markets, absolutely none of which has made itself known on the FTSE. The US, Germany, even France, responded to the upward forces, the FTSE opted pretend it was a frightened ostrich.

Allegedly (remember, we are speculating potentials of something refusing to move) the FTSE need now only trade above 7439 to bring an utterly useless 7466 to the table. Secondary, if bettered, comes along at 7523 points. In itself, this is a fairly useful number but key will be trades above this level. Essentially, this will now position the index for a decent upward run through December, potentially to the 7600's!

Just for fun, we've shown some Moving Averages on the chart. While we tend disparage these nonsense indicators, it would be churlish not to admit they add some festive colour to the index. Our own feeling is the only important indicator now shall prove to be intraday traffic above 7466, along with international agreement to silence Brexit speculation commentary from either camp.

In the event the index now manages below 7360, reversal to 7308 remains a dangerous ploy as secondary if broken, comes along at 7240 and the risk of no Xmas dinner as it will becomes apparent the FTSE intends complete the year, trapped in its useless trading range.

Published 23/11/2017 

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) The USA's turkey festival surprised us by coming a week early! Apparently the last Thursday of November is not a fixed rule for gobbler massacres. Our complaint, the markets in Europe opted to enjoy a duvet day, rather than experience the buoyant day we expected.

The funny thing about this US Festival comes from how, something historically just one of these weird American "things", became accepted (and still slightly puzzled about) through Europe. It's easy to suspect international communication via social media is liable to provoke future excuses being found for a similar "Family & Friends sit down meal" without the intrusion and pressure of gifts. Not the worst idea in the world.

Perhaps the turkey(!) fake bacon we had with lunch allows us to forgive what proved a completely boring day on the markets. Even Japan, usually capable of wandering off and doing its own thing, appeared to settle down to await the US opening for trade again.

Fairly key for The FTSE should be trades above just 7432 points on Friday, ideally not with a movement at 8:00am. We're looking at this near term trigger proving capable of driving the index toward 7466 points. Secondary, if bettered, calculates at 7496 points though common sense points out a history of limp days on the FTSE tends make hope for an 82 point day perhaps misplaced. In addition, there's the small issue of the immediate BLUE downtrend, currently lurking at 7445 points and liable to cause a stutter in upward travels.

To focus on the miserable side of life, the index needs break 7360 (RED) to bring 7330 points, perhaps even 7308 points.

Have a good weekend.

Published 22/11/2017 

Thomas Cook Group (LSE:TCG) Many men go through life, wondering what they will next do to irritate their wife. A good idea led to a surprise 8/10 level of nuisance. When asked to quickly blend her soup, apparently using a high torque hand-drill is not allowed despite the tool fitting perfectly.

This, of course, leads us to Thomas Cook and their recent nasty drop. Absolutely nothing to do with the soup incident as that was just a funny story needing told, similar to the time she asked a frozen leg of lamp to be cut in half. Like Bosch drills, electric saws are a big no-no. The soup did blend faster than it took TCG's price to drop.

Are TCG suffering, perhaps due to folk avoiding Spain due to its political regime? Or is the price indulging in something which has happened quite a lot recently, the fabled "backtesting the trend" scenario?

We think it probably a trend thing and the tell tale will come if the price betters 115p in the days ahead. This would tick the first box suggesting the drop was indeed a "backtest". The next box needing a tick comes along at 120.5p, due to near term traffic above 115p calculating with this target. We've painted a light blue trend line which advises TCG would be wise to wait until next week or so before an attempt at the trend, due to achieving target also exceeding the immediate downtrend. In theory, we're able to calculate an upward surge toward a longer term 139 in such a game play.

Are there sharks in the water?

The RED line paints the uptrend for the last year. The price needs move below 100p to worry us, this allowing weakness toward 94p initially with secondary, if broken, at 72p. Such a disaster would imply, for Thomas Cook, 2017 has been a waste of time. Oddly, the FTSE shares an identical sentiment.

ps. the soup did not need salt. It appears a high torque whisk released perfect seasoning from the veg.

Published 21/11/2017 

FEVERTREE DRINKS (LSE:FEVR) With a corporate name like this, we wonder why this mob don't sponsor "I'm a Nonentity" which is currently polluting UK TV screens! It certainly would tend add something to the vacant lot of people confusing fleeting TV appearance with fame.

It can be correctly assumed we hope there's a special place in hell for reality TV shows, along with the industry which tends aggrandise them. However, it did give an excuse to look at this oddly named company.

The share has certainly experienced a stonking rise since 2015, one we'd be hard pushed to accurately map due to the plethora of price manipulation gaps. We're taking the attitude nowadays of NOT expecting gaps to be filled, especially in this case where all they tend signify is the market felt Fevertree share price should go higher.

Of course, we've now got a "however".

While mapping the upward path was well neigh impossible, the opposite appears true as recent reversals illustrate. The immediate situation is slightly dangerous, indicating below 1850 (Dashed Red) should bring 1765p. In reality, even price closure below 1910 would alarm us, creating a new "lower low", opening the door for a downward drip. Worse, should 1765 break, further leakage down to the 1600 level makes a lot of sense.

Visually, common sense suggests a bounce at the 1600 level if attained as it seems this point had some sort of importance to the market. Real danger would come below such a level as a future bonk against the uptrend looks like best guess.

Of course, there's another side to this misery as the movement on November 7th suggested the market may not be ready to let Fevertree weaken anytime soon. Unfortunately, it also creates the situation where the price requires better 2225p currently to convince any upward surge may be genuine. Rather oddly, moves above 2225p indicate the potential of growth to 2325p. Secondary, if bettered, calculates at 2716p, a new all time high.

We rather suspect the 1600p level shall makes its presence felt first though.

ps. Do you get "Fevertrees" in a jungle?

Published 20/11/2017 

YOUGOV (LSE:YOU) Our little diatribe regarding 2017 being "The Year The FTSE Did Nothing" struck a chord with a few folks. Last year it witnessed 1,700 range, in 2015 there were 1,400 points, in 2014 a sad 900 points were on display, virtually the same as 2013. So this years 500 point range stinks.

In the course of gathering the information, it occurs the UK Govt hasn't called an election nor referendum for a while and, as it appears the only usual beneficiary are the polling companies, it provides the excuse for a glance at how YouGov are now doing.

The current situation suggests trades now above just 325p should find sufficient excuse to grow the price to 344p next. Secondary, if bettered, comes along at a problematic 382p. The reason for our problem at this level is simple. The computer runs out of target prices! Obviously, this does not mean the price cannot go higher. If the PM opts to go full out with another bunch of hysterical reasons to vote and keep pollster companies in honey, it's not too hard to imagine this being gapped beyond the 382p level, starting a whole new trend for the future.

If trouble is planned, the price now needs below 269p to indicate some concern though, to be honest, even below 282p would justify severe eyebrow exercises as it would tick the first box in a tier of logic allowing 250p initially with secondary, if broken, a more painful

Published 19/11/2017 

FTSE this week (FTSE:UKX) The market is really starting to bother us. On Friday, for instance, we'd mentioned our concern of any rise above 7389 fading out half way to target. At precisely two minutes past noon, this actually happened with a 5 point drop. It suggested our optimism was based on a fake!

Similarly, we're increasingly worried at the number of shares NOT requiring updated in our daily scan of the 80+ most popular UK stocks. In an ideal world, the market shows a reasonable pulse with between 20% and 30% of shares requiring an update due to targets being met, RNS's released which change circumstances, or simply trigger levels being hit. In recent weeks, it's often been the case of just 10% needing a revamp of our calculations and experience teaches us we should be concerned.

We often write about the "if it ain't going up" situation, along with the similar "if it ain't going down" contrary view. If something isn't moving in the expected direction, expect a sharp move in the opposite direction.

This makes some sense. But...

The FTSE should have reached around the 7300 level and bounced but it ain't going down. Whereas, rather a few shares should be going up but stubbornly refuse to perform. This sort of nonsense is expected during July/August, not at a time of the year where some vibrancy makes sense. If the UK market were a share, we'd suggest it's marching on the spot while awaiting a major news report. A glance at the chart below lends voice to our frustration, showing a FTSE effectively rangebound since May. Which, given our beloved Prime Ministers surname, is apt.

We're going to stick our neck out and suggest, should the FTSE now manage to actually CLOSE a session above 7560, growth to an initial 7680 makes a lot of sense initially. Secondary, if bettered, comes along at 7890 points. As the market closed Friday at 7380, this sounds like a fairy tale but it's one which may prove useful as it tells us to look for reasons which may permit the FTSE above the trigger level.

If we review the immediate situation, trades now above 7407 points should prove capable of meagre movement toward 7432 points. Secondary, if bettered, calculates at 7490 points. This takes the index within sniffing distance of our all important trigger level.

Of course, what happens if 7308 breaks? A chasm in the festive snow with 7220 as bottom makes some sense but this risks breaking the 2017 uptrend, really not a good note on which to end the year. It implies the "ultimate" destination will probably be around 7100, confirming the UK market as experiencing a pretty pointless year with a 500 range.

Perhaps, unlike Bitcoin, the FTSE is actually behaving with a degree of sanity when one factors in "the Brexit thing" along with other real world factors.

Published 16/11/2017 

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) There are times when we wish it was permissible to shrug our shoulders and admit we just don't know what's happening. The FTSE has spent the last week making some truly mysterious moves which "should" have seen the index bounce around 7308 points, a number it studiously avoids.

The obvious "however" has been the markets reluctance to actually go up. We saw FTSE Futures hit a trigger point just before the market opened on Thursday morning which provoked an immediate upward surge - until FTSE Futures realised the FTSE itself wasn't following, hence the collapse which started before 9am. In some ways, it was a relief to see the Futures market being frustrated as it confirmed we were not the only people treating 7389 points as a trigger level (nerd stuff).

The situation remains, if the FTSE itself manages to trade above 7389 once the market opens on Friday morning, we're looking for growth to an initial 7417 points with secondary, if bettered, at a more useful 7443 points. Our worry remains tho', if the FTSE is determined to remain within a depressing downward curve, any rise is liable to fizzle out half way to target. This results in the truly useless situation where we dare not relax until at least 14 of the first batch of points are used.

Confused? It truly drives us to distraction as we rush around moving goalposts against world indices is repeated attempts to gauge whether the underlying strength is upwards or downwards. Or, in the case of the FTSE, just a bit sideways!

The alternate scenario remains of below 7368 pointing at 7308 as a bounce point eventually. Certainly, FTSE Futures on Thursday evening once again as painting an optimistic picture for Friday and we look forward to seeing what really happens during the opening minutes.

If Futures are indeed justified in optimism, should the FTSE (the real 8am until 4:30pm market) actually better 7443 points, there's a good chance of further strong upward travel.

Published 15/11/2017

BOOKER PLC (LSE:BOK) Back in the time of the dinosaurs, when buying wholesale supplies at Booker there were repeated attempts to play at limericks. After all, it never required genius to find a word to rhyme with Booker and kick off the first sentence. Somehow, Tesco never figured in the dirty poems.

Since the lows of 2007, the share has experienced a truly amazing climb from 7p, a relentless excursion which has seen the price forced upward every time a rising cycle seemed to falter. Once again, in a very minor fashion, the price has experienced a small forced upward nudge which creates the situation where movement now above 213p should prove capable of 227p initially. Secondary, if bettered, is at 250p which rather exhausts the immediate price cycle.

In the grand scheme of things, the share price is already in the ballpark for the initial target level but perhaps worthy of consideration is the Long Term Big Picture calculation of 287p, a number which is impossible to exceed. Unless, of course, the market decides it wants to better such a point by gapping the price upward at the open by a fairly substantial amount.

Of course, the talks with TESCO are liable to intrude but from our perspective Booker' share price still has a reasonable amount of rising to prove the shares full value.

In the "however" scenario, the Long Term uptrend is at 173p currently. The share price requires below this level to utterly rubbish the 287 calculation and instead introduce the threat of weakness toward 145 initially with secondary 105p.

Published 14/11/2017 

PROSPEX OIL (LSE:PXOG) This lot have been appearing in our email recently, so despite it being a sub 1p share, we opted to take a glance at its future prospects. It certainly appears to have a chance of going up or down... We've a problem with 0.005p, you see!

Recent movements indicate the potential of 0.66p initially with secondary, it beaten, a longer term (or next day, given AIM acceleration) 1.125p. All the share price requires achieve is trade above 0.64p fairly soon.

Unfortunately, the reason for our gnarly opening sentences comes from it failing to actually close above 0.635 mid-price, the prior high, as this tends give a degree of distrust against immediate movements. However, the share requires slip below RED at 0.46p to give serious cause for concern, given the price is already trading in a Big Picture region where our "real" targets are prefaced with minus signs.

As always, this isn't a problem as it simply means we cannot realistically calculate bottom targets with any real hope of accuracy. Perhaps more importantly is our ambition at 1.125p. When viewed against the utter hammering the price took at the start of 2017, a hope of just above a penny may seem silly but the key element comes if 1.125p is bettered. This will signify bottom is officially "in" and some real hope for the future can start germinate, quite a distance before the Dashed Blue downtrend loitering above 1.4 currently.

For now, some slight hope seems possible and hopefully they've some good news about to come on stream.

Published 13/11/2017 

DIXONS CARPHONE (LSE:DC.) With all the usual nonsense about the release of a new iPhone, we thought it may prove worthwhile to view how one of the mobile outlets share price is doing. Not so great, it turns out. But the changes may ring soon. (boom boom)

Currently the share is trading around the 147p level and given the circled manipulation gap on the chart, it appears probable the market intend drive it a bit lower. The immediate situation is a bit grotty insofar as movement now below 145p tends suggest coming weakness toward 128p with secondary, if broken, at an eventual 53p!

To even escape the immediate downtrend, the share price currently requires better 176p. This sort of achievement opens the door for growth toward 216p initially with secondary, if bettered, a longer term 267p.

There's something probably worth considering about our proposed bottom of 128p as we tend expect the price to bounce should this number make an appearance. If attempting a trade to see where it goes - sensibly above the 128p level - then placing a stop at 113p makes sense. Our reasoning with the 113p argument is we cannot calculate any price level between this point and 53p. In theory, the stop could be at 127p but the problem comes as, if a bounce occurs, the market is liable to scourge just below the 128p to collect any stops emplaced. It's one of these nice services the market sometimes offers traders, just to ensure they are spared the pleasure of watching a trade grow in value.

Published 12/11/2017 

FTSE THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX) The market at present worries us quite a lot. Many shares are just 'hanging' neither showing convincing up nor down moves. As mentioned previously, several commodities are presenting similar hesitation. Generally this nonsense presages a strong, new, well defined trend. As for direction, "Feelin' lucky, Punk?" is a phrase which springs to mind.

The underlying forces against the FTSE continue to be upward. The index requires break RED, currently just below 6,900, to indicate running shoes as 6600 could follow rather fast. And then, we'd need resort to writing some really miserable drop potentials as it would appear politicians have succeeded beyond their wildest dreams in trashing the market.

However, near term is now appears weakness continuing below 7420 should bring 7375 to the fore. Secondary is around 7310 points where the market almost must bounce. The prospects of a break below such a point at pretty poor at 7150 points and potential bounce against the uptrend since 2016 by the end of this year.

The market closed its first full November week at 7434 points and need only better 7482 points to exceed the immediate downtrend and, in doing so, halt the rot. Therefore, moves above 7482 allow us to speculate on coming growth toward 7575 points with secondary, if bettered, at around 7640 points. The crazy thing about this scenario, if triggered, is it permits a really tight stop at 7475 points.

We live in interesting times.

Published 9/11/2017 

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) Last nights commentary against Sirius Minerals unintentionally described a problem being faced by wider markets. One heck of a lot of "things", from BRENT to GOLD to The Banks have broken trend, then messed around doing very little.

We've harboured a suspicion the FTSE intends continue growth, rather suspecting the drop experienced on the 9th was probably a bit fake, one of these ridiculous things where something needs go down before it can go up. Our inclination is not to treat any drop seriously unless it manages below 7450 or so, this allowing weakness toward 7400 initially with secondary, if broken, at 7310 points.

One reason we rather distrust Thursdays droop was reflected across many shares in the FTSE 100, where they experienced a synchronised upward spike between noon and 2pm. We often refer to mystery spikes being used to generate "fake" price moves with this particular series proving quite remarkable in their effect.

Should the FTSE manage above 7520, we're looking for near term growth toward 7534 points with secondary, if bettered, a more useful 7553 points. Perhaps more importantly, this should serve to place the index in a good position for continued upward travel next week.

 FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:19:17PM	BRENT	63.81
10:21:39PM	US CRUD	57.15
10:24:40PM	GOLD	1285.49	1279	1277.315	1273.75	1287	1289	1294.325	1304	1279	'cess
10:27:05PM	FTSE	7487.39									'cess
10:30:26PM	FRANCE	5403									Success
10:39:31PM	GERMANY	13183	13105	12993	12813	13198	13210	13243	13289	13140	Success
10:41:58PM	US500	2585									Success
10:44:26PM	DOW	23454									Success
10:48:39PM	JAPAN	22625									Success

Published 8/11/2017 

SIRIUS MINERALS (LSE:SXX) Our monthly visit to this lot shows something interesting from a nerds perspective. Essentially, despite nothing happening, the market has been sufficiently kind to confirm which trend it's working against. The chart inset is a bit fascinating.

Essentially, though nothing has really happened for the last month (aside from it hitting our useless 28p target), we're taking some hope from the salient detail our target was slightly bettered intraday. When this happens with a share price trading above its downtrend, invariably it paints a picture for some positive movement ahead.

The inset "proves" the trend, showing the price closed hard against it prior to the next trend break. Once the trend was bettered, it backslipped a bit but some care was taken to stop the price once again retreating below the downtrend. Unfortunately, despite the trend being confirmed, the price has moved slower than the UK Prime Minister addressing a problem.

Alternately, it also could simply be the case the market is awaiting some important news which shall effect the price.

To get the grotty stuff out of the way first, it appears weakness now below 26.5p could present a dreadful 25.5p! This would trash the immediate uptrend, allowing future slippage to 21.5 and hopefully a bounce, especially due to the Dashed Red uptrend since 2015.

However, opting to take an optimistic stance makes some sense as it feels like the price is playing a waiting game. Any upward dash now exceeding 29.5p should find growth toward 31.5p awaiting. While pretty limp, should 31.5 be bettered, then 36p awaits with a strong visual promise for the future if such a level beaten.

Published 7/11/2017 

VERSARIEN (LSE:VRS) This lot provide an ideal example of why we don't need research companies. Suddenly, we're being emailed by a bunch of different folk asking us to run the numbers against a share we've never heard of. We don't need check fundamentals, that's the investors job.

The immediate downtrend in BLUE is sitting around at 26.5p currently and our calculations indicate movement above BLUE should prove capable of propelling the share price toward 29p. At this point, it all becomes a bit fraught as while 29p sounds useful, closure above 27.5p, the high earlier this year, looks pretty essential if a long term cycle toward 45p is about to enter the frame.

In fact, it's very possible closure above BLUE (26.5) should serve to justify a proper growth cycle commencing.

There are very few flys in ointment with this lot, aside from the salient detail it hasn't yet bettered Blue. The RED uptrend for 2017 is the only valid uptrend available and it signals the price requires slither below 14p to indicate trouble in the direction of 9p initially with secondary, when broken, at a bottom of 3p.

Visually, this appears unlikely, so perhaps worth keeping an eye on.

Published 6/11/2017 

Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE:RBS) We relish our monthly visit to the RBS with similar delight to visiting a blind dentist. Though, to be honest, it's easy to harbour suspicion most dentists are visually impaired frustrated bricklayers. "So, how are the jokers? Open a bit wider please," is still a sentence which rankles.

We've been mapping RBS against a downtrend which dates back to 2008 and despite a couple of recent movements intraday which appeared to better the trend, exquisite care was employed to ensure the share closed each session below BLUE on the chart (see inset). This sort of behaviour tends confirm - thankfully - we've been mapping the correct trend and allows us to mention closure above 286p should now suggest the start of a somewhat grudging climb toward 308p initially with secondary, if bettered, coming along at a longer term 362p.

However, we've ample reason to question why "they" are avoiding the price closing above the long term downtrend. The immediate situation warns of weakness below 275p leading to 270 initially, perhaps 264p if broken.

Our fear, should 264p make a guest appearance, is of continued slippage, perhaps toward 251p and a challenge of the RED uptrend. It's quite strange in some respects as the flurry of traffic above the BLUE downtrend tends hint quite strongly RBS share price actually wants to go up. Of course, this will prove quite a surprise to Alistair at Trends and Targets who, despite his financial interest in RBS has tended lose all interest.

Published 5/11/2017 

FTSE this week & the BITCOIN Event (FTSE:UKX) It's only fitting we should be writing this rant on 5th November, a date the UK sadly commemorates the failure of some bloke in bringing justice to politics. In the case of Bitcoin, it feels like the fellow in North Korea needs have a word with whoever is mangling the rate between the pretend currency and the US Dollar.

Our fury is due to our previous article (link here) which postulated Bitcoin starting to behave like a "proper" currency, this due to us being able to calculate 6595 as its high potential. We literally ran out of numbers beyond such a point. In the event, on 1st November the BTCUSD pairing achieved 6598 points, close enough to our maximum target level for a dislocated shoulder due to a self congratulatory pat on the back.

What happened next shocked us, almost making trades against Silver appear ethical.

The pairing retreated from our "maximum high" by around 140 points. This pretty effectively proved our calculations and Bitcoin was - finally -  behaving logically. But the next day left us aghast.

As the chart below shows, the relationship with the USD was manipulated higher, once again launching the pretend currency into "bubble" territory where we cannot calculate highs, making the prospect of disaster increasingly likely.

Bitcoin is now on our naughty step. Our suspicion is it was manipulated upward, due to a very real terror of a fall without a parachute. This particular movement now makes such a scenario very possible.

Sour grapes? Us? Perhaps not. There's a reason some SB companies do not carry Bitcoin and the lack of logic may be something to do with their decision.

THE FTSE THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX)  The index has managed close higher than ever before, forcing us to concede it's on an immediate path toward 7635 points initially. Secondary, if bettered, is at 7680 points. To cancel this prospect on the immediate growth cycle, the FTSE requires slither below 7480 points currently - RED on the chart.

It's also worth mentioning for those who recall our last Big Picture report we now regard the long term influence on the FTSE as coming from 7900 points.

We're aware the FTSE did not reach our 7584 on Friday, topping out at 7580. While this perhaps indicates weakness, visually it remains strong with us not inclined to panic unless the FTSE makes it below 7480 as an initial 7460 makes sense. Secondary, if broken, comes along around 7420 points.

Of course, just 'cos something has achieved a new Higher High does not mean it will now go straight up. Rarely is this the case as generally some dramatics come first. From a very near term perspective, the threat is of below 7540 bringing a drop to a useless 7525 points. The danger obviously comes if 7525 breaks as there's a danger of 7507 making an appearance. None of these numbers are particularly scary, only serving to give a sense of any weakness becoming apparent in the week ahead.

Published 2/11/2017 

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) We always joke about our Friday FTSE report being world famous, literally due to website visitors from all over the world taking this specific report. Hopefully accuracy for a near term punt also has something to do with it!

From the point at which the index closed Thursday (7556 points), we're tending view 7584 points as presenting a fairly reasonable target. Secondary, if bettered, comes along at 7606 points. Unfortunately, the tightest available sane stop looks like 7509 points which is a bit wide when viewing the Risk / Reward for a near term trade. Part of the reason for this width comes from the playground the FTSE is about to enter. Had the index closed just two points higher, we'd be adjusting that secondary upwards, perhaps by 70 points.

Complicating things has been FTSE Futures during the evening of 2nd November. Futures reached a high of 7570 points, this often indicating the market will probably open UP for the day - potentially as high as 7570. Our rule of thumb is, should the FTSE spike UP at the open, unless this spike bettered within the first 90 minutes, expect a rewind day.

However, in keeping with a craven need to produce more "rules", if the index actually opens above 7570, this will indicate strength beyond near term influences and therefore, even if it does rewind, it'll probably go higher later in the session.

Confused? Try being us while BoE play with interest rate announcements.

As the chart below shows, the FTSE has NOT yet closed above 7556 and created a new "ALL TIME HIGH". While we harbour a suspicion the index intends further upward movement during November / December, we'd be remiss not covering our arse by viewing drop scenario.

If 7509 indeed breaks, weakness toward an initial 7480 looks about right. Secondary, if broken, comes in at 7450 points. Should this scenario trigger, stop can be comfortably tight at 7525 points though, in reality, it's possible 7514 will suffice.

Have a good weekend. It certainly feels the FTSE intends experience a reasonable Friday. Hopefully nothing occurs overnight to spoil our optimism for the day ahead.

Published 1/11/2017 

BARCLAYS (LSE:BARC) and BITCOIN We'd written a wonderful self congratulatory article about Bitcoin, due to it achieving (and retreating from) our target high of 6595. Calling up a chart revealed the sodding pairing had bettered 6595 (against all logic) while it was being written about. So, unless Bitcoin breaks below 6409 (making a short valid), we're clueless for now!

BARCLAYS on the other hand is easier to deal with. We've been banging on about an expectation of weakness to 178p and thus far, the share has resolutely avoided this doom. While our secondary - should 178p break -  is at 168p, a doubt is starting to sneak in as the completely illogical argument of "if it ain't goin' down, it's goin' up" tends prove valid more often than you would expect.

Of course, we cannot help but wonder if the market has noticed the unpleasant detail, should BARCLAYS close below 180p, the ruling longer term attraction comes from 148p. It also begs the question, what's with all the drop targets ending in "8".

What does Barclays need do to signal "it's goin' up" ?

Bettering 190.5p would be a fairly reasonable movement. This would tend confirm the market does not wish Barclays below 180p, hinting at fairly useless growth coming toward 197.25p.  Critically, as the chart shows this betters the immediate downtrend for 2017, giving hope for the future.  Our secondary, if such a point exceeded, comes along at 213p.

There's a fairly big however, due to the prior highs matching the 197p level. Perhaps holding off on the party poppers will prove wise until such time the share actually closes above 197p.

Published 31/10/2017 

BMR GROUP (LSE:BMR) BREXIT and BMR have quite a bit in common. For instance, despite a lot of talk, the last few months have been punctuated by the production of absolutely nothing. Additionally, people tend get bored with an absence of action. However...

BMR is approaching a trend we're not sure exists. The Dashing Blue line on the chart below dates back to 2011 and we have not entirely figured out if the price is reacting to the imaginary line. The immediate danger though is of weakness below 3p probably causing a plunge toward 2.35p.

This particular scenario stinks as 2.35p would represent a new all time low for BMR and while a final plunge before tackling a major trend makes sense, we'd be extremely concerned should 2.35 break for any reason as we cannot calculate below such a point.

On the basis our imaginary trend line proves to be the real deal, common sense along suggests any break above 4.5 during November should bring an initial 5.6p to the fore. Secondary, if (when) bettered is a more optimistic sounding 7.1p.

If the share price opts to follow common sense, the visuals suggest any weakness which reaches 3p should bounce from RED and then, it all becomes a matter of buying lucky charms in the hope a break above the Dashing Blue line provides some upward entertainment.

Prior Months:

October 2017

September 2017

August 2017

July 2017

June2017    All the usual culprits!

May2017

April 2017 BMR FLYBE TESLA Griifin Unilever 88 Energy United Airlines Sirius Ferrari Hays YouGov Lloyds Barclays RBS

March 2017 Aberdeen Ass Laura Ashley ARGOS A G BARR French Connection BHP AFC Aberdeen Asset Jubilee LLOYDS RBS BARC Debenhams GreatPortland Just Eat Sirius

February 2017 Ferrari Sound Proton Power SIRIUS_SXX Esure A)O World CARD Factory Gulf Keystone BMR RENTokill BARCLAYS LLOYDS RBS

January 2017 SIRIUS Ferrari Next Premier Vet GBPEUR LLOYDS SKY Capita FastJet Talk Talk British Telecom SKY Barclays RBS

December16 DOW JONES AO WORLD Ebay SIRIUS BMR Sirius Ferrari Next GBPEUR LLOYDS DIAGEO

November16 Includes FlyBe FastJet Johnston Press SKY Ferrari Rockhopper Lloyds Barclays RBS Sirius BMR Vodafone AMUR Minerals Chesnara Provexis

October16 Includes FTSE GBPEUR RBS Barclays The Dow Jones Ferrari Lloyds GOLD Strategic Minerals BMR PLUS500 DOW AGAIN Gulf Keystone Hurricane Countrywide Vodafone Zoldav

Sept16: Includes Range Resources Highland Natural Resources Cloudtag Tern Kodal UK Oil & Gas Gulf Keystone Hurricane Sirius Barclays San Leon Solo Chariot Sepura 88 Energy Gulf Keystone BMR Forbidden Tech HNR Sound Deutsche Bank Ferrari Twitter

August16 - includes Firstgroup Cobham Drax Edinburgh JimmyChoo Barclays Lloyds WilliamHill OilSector ProtonPower RBS DirectLine BMR JustEat BancaMonteDeiPaschidiSiena SiriusMinerals DixonsCarphone FERRARI Google SanLeon  WMIH  GulfKeystone