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Published 31/07/17 

LONDON CAPITAL GROUP (LSE:LCG)  Since we permitted advertising on our website, we've noticed London Capital feature prominently recently, so it's probable they've some sort of campaign going. Noticing they are 'listed' on the stock exchange, it was therefore only a matter of time before we scheduled a glance at the share price.

Our suspicion is this one's either a punt or a runt. Normal rules of engagement tell us the share price now trades below our logical bottom levels with the result there's a fair degree of risk involved. Thankfully, it's also trading in the penny regions with the result there's the possibility of reward for comparatively little outlay.

At time of writing, the share is around 1.625p. It is trading in a region where below 1.375 signals a bounce potential at 1.09p. But if 1p breaks, our ultimate limbo dance level becomes 0.48p.

T  o suggest any bounce has legs, the price requires exceed 3.15p. To confirm it's actually starting some real recovery, the share requires to CLOSE a session above 5.25p.

In plain English, it hasn't got a lot of downward wiggle room but quite a lot of upward room for improvement, so perhaps some research to understand their motivation behind the advertising campaign will be justified.

Currently, any bounce bettering 2p looks capable of 2.65 initially with secondary, if bettered, at 3.9p. The secondary risks being quite significant, bettering the immediate downtrend and launching the price into a zone where 5.375 becomes believable. And then, we get to shake the tea leaves again. Visually, it appears closure above even 4p will better a glass ceiling which has formed since 2016 and suggest some proper growth commencing.

Of course, the words of wisdom are "Do your own research".

Published 30/07/17 

FTSE FOR THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX)  Thanks for all the emails asking where our 'FTSE FOR FRIDAY' column vanished. We've backups for everything (despite being a small family business) but it all fell apart when the person who specifically analyses the FTSE took ill - at the point when everyone else was on holiday. It appears a 'middle ear infection' isn't fun, a combination of being seasick while binge drinking drunk apparently. However, the victim did lose 1/2 stone in just 3 days!

The FTSE has been parked for most of July and appears intent on starting August around the same position it managed to start July. The situation now suggests any near term traffic below 7337 should bring 7308 into view fairly swiftly. The problem comes if 7308 breaks as we can argue in favour of continued weakness down toward 7240 points. Unfortunately, the stop level if this set of circumstance triggers calculates around 7460 which is pretty useless by any standards.

The market closed the week at 7388 points and about the most favourable thing we can spot for the coming week will be the potential of movement about 7460 provoking a stonkingly rubbish 7478 points. The important thing is, should 7478 be exceeded, it's appears we should suggest 7588 is the upper target. If employing common sense, in the event of such a surge, it would make sense to anticipate a stumble around 7515 points, the prior high.

For the next couple of weeks, our headline articles with tend be short and sharp - essentially giving the information needed without softening it with poor attempts at humour. Our futures specialist should be able to view a computer screen without throwing up soon.

Published 25/07/17 

ANGLO AMERICAN & THE MINING SECTOR (LSE:AAL & FTSE:NMX1770)  Having discovered 92% of roadside crow deaths are caused by heavy lorries, it reminded that when we view one of the heavyweights in the mining sector, we should view the sector itself in the hope of spotting a signal which justifies the bloom - or gloom - of one of its components. More about crows later.

To view the sector, it's currently trading around 16290 and regarded on a path toward 16,670 points. This ambition is critical, if choosing a heavyweight for the longer term, as it appears should the sector manage to CLOSE a session above 16670, we should anticipate a growth surge of an initial 2,000 points. And this will prove quite a big deal for sector components. It would require trading below 14,300 before we'd experience collywobbles.

ANGLO AMERICAN over the last couple of years have tended slavishly to mimic the sector index. Currently it's trading around 1170p and regarded as being on a path toward 1235p. Visually this suggests a coming challenge of the downtrend since 2011. In the event of closure above 1235p, we're looking for growth to a fairly useless 1315p - useless other than breaking above a 6 year downtrend.

The implications of such an upward break move the price into Big Picture territory, permitting us to mention 1700p in the future as the seriously long term attraction will be regarded as being 2186p.

If the market intends derail any optimism, the share requires to close below RED - currently 1001p - as 470p becomes attractive, though will require a few other criteria fullfilled as the initial drop ambition calculates at 820p.

As for the crow deaths, the birds are carrion eaters with one always remaining "on watch" while the rest feast on road-kill. Scientists finally established the sentry bird never alerts its gang members when a truck appears, due to it only being able to call "cah, cah..." never "truck, truck".

Published 24/07/17 

AO WORLD (LSE:AO.)  This was one of our possible ISA contenders but unfortunately the share price has failed to make the break above BLUE into safer territory. Worse, the share has now achieved a series of lower lows, making us wonder whether the 93p proposed as "bottom" in our last report (link here) will hold or will matters worsen.

Currently, we've little doubt moves below 115 will invoke the demon at 93p and potentially some sort of bounce but now, it appears we should suggest awaiting 76p presenting itself with the real bottoming potential. Below such a level, we're floundering to find numbers not prefaced with a minus sign.

To escape this doom, the share price requires firming above 150p to allow us to speculate about 174, maybe even 192 sometime in the future.

For now, we're inclined to distrust it but suggest should the price approach 76p, it perhaps allows for a small punt.

Published 23/07/17 

FTSE FOR THE WEEK (FTSE:UKX)  "Daddy, can I cut its head off?" - from a 5 year old grand-daughter - must rank as one of the more surreal things heard while prepping our outlook for the coming week. One 'problem' we face, based in a scenic area of Scotland, is surprise weekend visitors and this time, one of them actually managed to catch rather a lot of fish.

He returned with his catch at the same time his daughters returned from a themed kids party, was outside at a workbench cleaning and gutting and his cute fairy winged Disney Princess wanted to carve up the dead fish. While often bemused at the strange things going on around our office, this particular incident must rank as one of the greats. Unfortunately it also means we're cursed with eating fish for the foreseeable future as one of the freezers was completely filled. Thankfully, sushi dishes are a favourite.

As for the FTSE, normal rules continue to suggest underlying strength is present, despite quite a few deliberate "slow down" movements recently. The current cycle should, in normal circumstances, top out around 7576 points. To cancel this prospect, the index requires slip below 7400 points. Given the market closed the week at 7453, this thankfully isn't the worst stop level given the upward potentials but, to be realistic and adhere to our Higher Highs mantra, awaiting the index bettering 7515 would make a saner entry point. But a pretty rubbish width of stop.

The funny thing, we've a suspicion our 7576 aspiration doesn't have a chance until later in the week. During July, we've noticed the FTSE seems to be trapping itself in a range for 6 or 7 sessions, then moving up to the next trading level. If this pattern of misbehaviour continues, it'll perhaps be Thursday before the next surge happens.

We'd indicated the index requires below 7400 to trash the immediate uptrend but realistically we'd want the index below 7340 before expressing serious concern at any reversal as this takes the FTSE into territory where 7200 must be mentioned as the first drop target with secondary calculating at a more scary 7025 points. Our inclination remains sceptical at these potentials until such time we see the SP500 at 2500 and the DOW messing around at the 22,000 level. This will create a perfect storm of reversal potentials with the risk of a need for a drop (if only to feed a rise) creating a domino effect across various indice.

As usual, we'll issue an update if the FTSE moves outwith these parameters.

Published 20/07/17 

FTSE FOR FRIDAY, THE DOW, THE S&P (FTSE:UKX)  The job of being a goatherd, high on a hill, is fraught with danger and loneliness, along with the ever present echo of that Mary Poppins woman singing her heart out.  And as always, nearing the top of a hill, a whimsical goatherds thought turn to the markets... We let something slip the other day when examining the results produced against both the DOW JONES and the S&P.

Each index is approaching an uncomfortable point for us, that exquisite moment when we run out of big picture numbers as the price gets to the top of its particular hill. Historically, both the DOW & SP500 have tended play fair as they encroach on these perfect moments in time, either choosing to skip above the awkward number - something the SP500 has 'form' for - or retreating in a panic such as witnessed recently with the DOW and its mystery 200 point droop on the 18th July.

We generally call these levels "stutter points", areas in the movement table where a market will generally be forced to fluff around while generating impetus for the next movement. There is often a lot of truth in the saying, "it's got to go down before it goes up" but this time the problem is a little more vivid.

If the S&P exceeds 2502, we literally run out of numbers whereas the DOW needs better 22,129 to send our software into meltdown. When we realised the US markets were approaching this critical level, about the only advice available was to suggest "Go Short & Wait - with a tight stop".

To dwell on the S&P first, if it approaches 2502 (in fact, it's already pretty damned close at 2479) our proposal suggests a short position with a stop as tight as you want. As for the drop target, 2425 makes a lot of visual sense but we're almost guessing if we rely on the visual impression from a chart! The reasoning which justifies a tight stop - say 2505 - is if we're wrong and the index makes it above 2502, a bold new trend is developing, one which we're ill equipped to map (currently).

The DOW JONES is a slightly different kettle of fish. We exhaust our movement table above 22129 but would suggest a wider stop, perhaps just above 22,200, as this index has a plethora of opening "gaps" which foul our calculations. In terms of drop targets, the visuals suggest somewhere around 19,500 should prove about right. Or even 17,500! As with the SP500, we're guessing as absolutely nothing currently indicates such a plunge other than our software throwing a strop above 22129 points.

So, we've presented some pretty attractive drop levels, it would be a shame if we didn't permit reality to intrude. While we eschew "fundamentals" and "technicals", it'd be silly to expect the markets to plunge without cause. We anticipate the index' approaching our target levels and essentially mucking around for a while until a sufficient excuse appears to justify a drop.

Isn't it nice to know the index' are poised, awaiting some politician saying or doing something stupid? Perhaps even now, the politician is high on a hill, amorously chasing a goat while a photographer lurks in a bush.

There's also the risk nothing actually happens to justify calamity and instead, we'll experience a few months of small movements which, when added together, generate sufficient oomph for a new upward trend. If the markets were a share, we'd be confident some degree of rewind is coming but even then, sometimes incredible patience is required.

The chart below is for Intercontinental Hotels Group (LSE:IHG), a share we monitor privately for clients. We'd a Big Picture target of 45 quid, something it achieved fairly recently. Since then, the price has neither beaten our 45 quid nor collapsed. We think it will drop, if only to generate future strength. But the share isn't really doing anything other than messing around between 42 quid and 45 quid. Perhaps this shall prove to be the fate awaiting the DOW & SP500.

Our money is on the goat.

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX)  Now we've let the cat out the bag above with an expected calamity which might not happen... how's the politically poisoned FTSE looking? Oddly, it doesn't entirely stink as above 7495 looks capable of an astoundingly useless 7508 points.

What will really interest us comes if 7508 bettered, due to a new tier of numbers entering the fray which makes a secondary upper target of 7578 points pretty hard to avoid. If triggered, the index requires slither below 7393 too utterly cancel the growth potential, quite a wide stop we admit but when we refine the numbers, the tightest comes in at 7425 points.

So what happens if 7425 breaks?

It looks like 7380 becomes possible, perhaps even 7337 points as a secondary.

We're not entirely comfortable with these drop potentials and would submit 7400 as a safer drop trigger.

Have a good weekend.

Published 19/07/17 

ROLLS ROYCE (LSE:RR.)  The devastating news of BBC staff salaries will surely hurt Rolls Royce sales, thankfully with their automobile division now being split from the main company. However, will their aviation engine manufacture take a tumble as demand for private jet use diminishes as BBC staff attempt to prove they live normal lives - even arriving at work by bike (Jeremy Vine @ £700k...)

The funny thing, Rolls Royce - currently trading around 925p - need only better 950p to assure us the share price has once again entered a growth cycle toward 1160p as "top" on the immediate price cycle. If forced to select a point for entry on the final leg to the top, it appears closure above 1000p will provide a pretty reliable signal. If looking for a sign of movement strength, it appears anything near term bettering 928p should confirm the recent bounce from 900p was indeed bottom and continued moves toward 944p can be expected near term, certainly within grasping distance of our 950p trigger level.

It's certainly not rocket science to identify the problem making itself known at 950p as, despite a soaring FTSE, Rolls Royce has firmly refused to become airborne thus far. But to be fair, the FTSE has celebrated the onset of the holiday season by messing around aimlessly while pretending to wear a respectable face. But for Rolls Royce to suffer any meaningful reversal, the share price requires descend below RED on the chart, currently 701p. In fact, even the immediate uptrend remains looking fairly robust with the share needing below 900p to suggest the upward emphasis has eased.

A calamity such as this permits weakness toward 889 initially with secondary 867p. Neither result is visually threatening and numerically we require the share to trade below 835p before starting to suspect troubled skies are ahead.

For now, we're fairly relaxed with this and about the only sane problem appears at 1100p, a level the share price struggled with previously and one which almost certainly will provide a stutter in any future rise as the suckers who bought in 2014 eagerly cash in at zero profit.

Published 18/07/17

NORTHGATE PLC (LSE:NTG)  Few things are more frustrating than evenings, sitting in the garden surrounded by mountains, watching a bunch of sailing boats pretending to race on a flat calm sea, while sipping alcohol free cider and realising nothing particularly is happening worth writing about for this headline section. Thankfully, someone emailed plaintively asking a quick opinion on Northgate, a company we hadn't even appreciated was listed on the market!

Dreading summer is about more than a 26c evening in Scotland, it's about the salient detail many shares do very little as most folks brains are sliding into holiday mode. Those shares which opt to become interesting (Carillon?, Lonmin?) we already cover privately for clients and it's frowned upon using "our" shares for this freebie headline section. Thankfully, Northgate is a share we've never looked at, so we don't risk cheesing off clients by discussing it.

Currently trading around 428p, the share requires better 486p to escape the immediate downtrend which points to 376p as being potentially coated with trampoline juice. The funny thing is, while this is below the prior lows in November 2016, the ambition is solidly above the long term uptrend since 2012 and due to current price movements being forced due to manipulation (circled) we'd tend hope for a bounce if 376 appears. The danger comes if 376 breaks as we next calculate 302p as possible, trashing the long term uptrend.

However, if we pretend confidence and believe our 376 makes an appears, what can be hoped for?

Firstly, there's the immediate downtrend which is at 486, so we'd need look for anything capable of boosting the price above such a point. Even trading above 460p would impart considerable hope as we're able to compute coming movements to 545p, breaking the immediate trend and placing the price rather neatly at the level it flatlined for four months earlier this year. With closure above 545p, we'd need review the tea leaves as an entirely new ballgame opens for the future.

For now, our suggestion is this is worth watching if it approaches 376 as some sort of rebound looks likely. And if it betters 460p, further oomph becomes possible.

Now, it's time to open the red wine and enjoy the last embers of sunset in that uniquely Scottish thing, the gloaming. And perhaps praise the outdoor fan which blows the bloody midges away from the table.

Published 17/07/17 

OXFORD BIOMED. (LSE:OXB)  In conversation, we're quite often asked "what do you like at the moment?" and it's a question which presents surprising difficulty. From a near term perspective, for instance, we "like" Tullow as it's probably about to show some recovery. But longer term, in the absence of miracles, we really cannot assign any great fondness for the share. Oxford Biomed, for a completely opposite reason, falls into this category.

Near term, we don't particularly like it as the price looks like it intends hit 6.6p sometime soon. Hopefully the share experiences a bounce at such a level as we quite like its longer term prospects!  Unfortunately, we've issues if the proposed bounce point of 6.6p is broken as our secondary calculates at 4.6p, fairly solidly below the immediate uptrend - currently at 5p - and royally stuffing our reasons for "liking" the share from a longer term perspective.

Visually, the current price cycle calculates as wanting to hit 12.75, despite the near term prospect of 6.6 making a guest appearance. Common sense suggests some sort of stutter can be expected in the future at the 12.75p level, if only because this illustrates the prior highs back in 2015. The important thing for the longer term comes in at just 13.25p as trades above this level bring "higher highs" to the table, provoking the potential of 17.5p sometime in the future.

Thus, it's a share we don't like today but tend like for the longer term. And Tullow, we like today but distrust for the longer term.

No-one ever said this game was sane!

Published 16/07/17 

FTSE FOR THE WEEK (FTSE:UKX)  A Silverstone weekend left us surprisingly concerned at the antics of the 11th team in the pits, the cast of "CARS 3". Every time the camera swung past their garage, no less the EIGHT crash helmets were displayed! The implication is worrying and a bit of a bombshell. It appears Pixars film studio must require small humans to drive cartoon cars. Additionally, the media bring news the UK faces a female Dr Who catastrophe. (Okay, it's the holiday season and we're bored)

Competing with Ferrari in a clown competition is, of course, the FTSE. (For the majority who didn't watch the GP, Ferrari managed to lose tyres in both cars just two laps from the end in a spectacular case of synchronised cock-up)  During July, it appears the 7300 has provided a pretty firm floor and we've a growing suspicion the market intends park the FTSE in a range between roughly 7350 and 7450 for a few days. But the visuals continue to suggest a major tripwire awaits if 7300 breaks as 7270 should swiftly follow. But the secondary of 7160 is a bit more scary. Unfortunately, if this one triggers, recent market variations have been so ridiculous is requires at least a 100 point stop.

However, if our suspicion of the market being parked, essentially treading water, proves correct, anything near term above 7420 should prove capable of generating 7450 initially. Secondary, if beaten, is a theoretical 7550 BUT we'd prefer awaiting until the immediate downtrend - currently 7480 - is bettered before allocating any credibility to such an ambition. If this upward movement triggers, the visuals indicate a stop level of 7380 is about the tightest sanely possible.

Published 13/07/17 

FORMULA ONE, FTSE FOR FRIDAY, and FERRARI too.  (NASDAQ:FWONA, NYSE:RACE, FTSE:UKX) Following the F1 world championship stitch up last year, our interest in GP has dwindled a bit but it's hard to ignore the Silverstone weekend. We've also been wilfully ignoring Liberty Media, the folk who now own F1 as their NASDAQ listing is still "a bit new". But... it's Silverstone, hopefully hosting their penultimate GP - we always wonder at a race track, devoted to motorsports, being unable to cope with people arriving by car.

However, upon hearing the folk who financially backed the NASDAQ listing have now cashed in, there's a good chance the price shall become interesting. LIBERTY MEDIA (NASDAQ:FWONA) price movements since launch in January have proven less than interesting but there's some signs the share could surprise us. Currently trading around 33.21, it need only better 33.5 to arrest the immediate decline, in doing so enter an area where some upward travel becomes possible. Our barometer if 33.5 bettered is to anticipate growth to a fairly lacklustre 35.15.

This is one of these 'key numbers' which, if bettered, will suggest the recent droop was a bottom as above 35.15 it appears sane to anticipate 36.9, perhaps even 38 in the future.

For it all to go horribly wrong, the share needs below 32.4 as weakness toward 30.5 makes sense with secondary 29.5. But for now, we're taking slight encouragement from the share price NOT being trashed despite the initial backers selling their shares.

In the future, it will certainly prove interesting when ALL F1 broadcasts are exclusive to Sky and advertisers see their audience exposure dramatically reduced due to a broadcaster charging premium prices to allow people to watch relentless sponsor/partner advertising.

FERRARI (NYSE:RACE)  Perhaps due to their less than grotty F1 performance, RACE are now outperforming logic. The market opted to manipulate the price above the highest we'd calculated - 76 (circled) - and it indeed appears a new trend has commenced. The situation now is of movement near term above 93.2 bringing 95.3 into view with secondary, if bettered, coming in at 99.25. While neither ambition is particularly spectacular, perhaps continuing positive results shall bring another upward manipulation gap and make our 99.25 seem conservative.

To spoil the party, Ferrari share price requires tumble below RED (85.5 currently). For now, it is viewed as having ticked all the boxes for 95.3 fairly soon. Hopefully they avoid doing anything silly at Silverstone this weekend.

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX)  Despite it being the holiday season, the market managed inflict a spectacular degree of humiliation this week. We noticed, rather belatedly, the FTSE was trapped between 7300 and 7400, produced a slick graphic and urgently alerted clients what was going on. Within hours, 5 sessions earlier than expected, the FTSE broke trend above 7400 points.

A pretty embarrassing oops moment ensued.

We've updated clients of our hurried rehash of the numbers as it appears the market doesn't intend giving out free gifts during the next 6 weeks of usual "pretend" moves across the marketplace. Near term, it appears anything above 7435 should bring growth to 7455, perhaps even 7472 points.  Unfortunately, due to the prior nonsense before 7400 was bettered, the stop position is almost a "best guess" at 7400 points. To be completely comfortable, we'd prefer mentioning 7304 as the stop position which, frankly, takes risk/reward to new levels of stupidity.

What happens if 7400 breaks?

We're looking at weakness coming to 7375 points with secondary, if broken, at an unlikely looking 7320 points. If triggered, stop can be at 7435 points.

Finally, please remember we're talking about The FTSE above, not after hours FTSE Futures.

Published 12/07/17

HURRICANE ENERGY (LSE:HUR)  It's truly unusual for May to do something without reaching the inevitable conclusion the UK PM has, once again, embraced "silly". But in the case of Hurricane, May certainly has a lot to answer for and the very deliberate decline in the share price bothers us rather a lot. Apparently the magic number is currently 32.925p.

When we view the somewhat artificial decline since May, the share price requires exceed 32.925p to exceed BLUE and hopefully suggest it's ceased dropping. Alas, we're not terribly comfortable with this calculation as the FOUR price moves which define BLUE tend come with the threat of the market having a cunning plan, proving single minded in their devotion.

Or to cut through the flowery language, it looks like the sods want the price to hit 25p, maybe even 20p if "they" intend playing games with the folk who jump in with the assumption the circled gap will provoke a bounce.

If this is indeed the markets secret plan, we'd tend distrust any break of BLUE as it's liable to prove short lived.

While perhaps it may appear absurd we apply such larcenous notions, the illusion of a stock market driven by Malthus theory of Supply & Demand has long vanished, along with any residual respect for a certain Economics lecturer! (Clue: he also believed in Moving Averages as a reliable trend indicator...)

So, what happens if BLUE - currently 32.925 - is bettered. In theory this should generate growth toward 36p initially and while a 3p rise isn't of particular interest, in the event 36p is bettered we'd tend anticipate 39 fairly soon thereafter. Our logic runs along the lines should 36p be exceeded, it ticks the first box to confirm bottom is "in". This being the case, beyond 39p is a visually pleasing jump to 47p.

Oh, and if it breaks 20p, it's stuffed and risks 10p.

Published 11/07/17 

SIRIUS MINERALS (LSE:SXX) As train wrecks go, this isn't proving too chaotic. Our last update (link here) was tentative, painting 35p as an upward target - one which was thankfully achieved. However, in the period since the price has displayed a degree of hysterics, none of which are particularly alarming.

The current situation sounds a little dire as we're forced to mention weakness below 25 shall now anticipate 21.5p and a probable bounce of sorts. As the chart shows, there's a couple of potential uptrends and this drop target doesn't actually threaten them, leaving us fairly relaxed.

More likely appears growth above BLUE driving the share to 35.5p initially. Given this creates a "higher high" than previously and also betters the BLUE downtrend, above such a point looks capable of generating 42.75 as a secondary.

The secondary of 42.75 is really rather important as closure above this level tends make it difficult to stop our software reporting a further 64p sometime in the future. Hopefully the company continue feeding coins into the "good news" box!

Published 10/07/17 

MORRISONS PLC (LSE:MRW) Chart price manipulation gaps used to be a touchstone for many traders, all representing a level a price shall return - eventually. The exemption caveat was always "the Game Changer" gap, one where something major provoked a share price revaluation. However, over the last few years we've become increasingly less comfortable with "Gap" theory and feel the UK market now mimics US & Japan with a "it happened, get over it" attitude.

To put it plainly, gap closure is about as reliable as a politicians word!

Morrisons is a case in point. The share price exhibits a very obvious gap in the share price movement table at 193p - this being a point where the stock market woke up one morning and thought, "Stuff it, they're no longer worth 193p - if you want to get some, it'll cost you 203p." Obviously there's always an excuse for these on the fly revaluations of a share price but too often, they leave a bad taste if you were the sucker who sold the previous day after reading some negative comment. From our perspective, sudden changes in a price often will happen with plenty of forewarning. The recent suppository Carillion delivered to investors was not entirely a surprise as we'd been speculating about a drop to 141 since the start of June! (A rather nasty overshoot tho', none the less)

We're now tending ignore gaps in trade patterns - unless they are used to define a new trend by skipping over one of our target prices. In the chart below on Morrisons, this particular gap was employed to better a glass ceiling (a flat trend) with the result we're 'fairly' comfortable what's coming next.

The key number today for Morrisons is roughly 250.338p. If the share price manages close a session above this point, it betters the downtrend since the start of 2012 and enters a cycle toward an astounding 257p. Okay, we'll admit this isn't impressive BUT if 257p is bettered, it sends our software a signal the price is no longer reacting to 2017's pressures but instead is probably being fed on forces since the droop in 2013.

To cut the gibberish, if it betters 257p, we shall be pretty confident it intends 280 initially but the secondary of 320p assumes a high degree of long term comfort for future archaelogists.

What would we define as troubling?

Obviously any reduction in their Gluten Free range would worry us (their own brand Chicken Gujons proved amazing as an emergency "me:cook" snack - not labelled GF but are) but realistically anything (ideally closure) below 228p would prove a nuisance, suggesting the immediate uptrend has failed with the price entering a potential cycle to 205p initially with secondary a hopefully ultimate 172p bounce point. As can be seen, neither ambition pays any attention to the 193p gap.

But for now, it's probably worth watching 250.338 if brave or 257 if sane.

Published 9/07/17

FTSE this week (FTSE:UKX) This FTSE situation remains of below 7300 providing concerns, along with a slip down toward 7159 points where some sort of bounce is expected. Perhaps any drop will arrest at 7269 points but we're not intending hold our breath. Our problem comes with repeated "dares" against the uptrend for 2017 showing how fragile this uptrend risks being. Hopefully the UK PM keeps quiet for a while. Or longer.

The immediate downtrend on the FTSE is at 7362 points, visually not a terribly difficult barrier to exceed which will tend suggest any bounce from RED - the uptrend - is genuine. Moves above 7362 are supposed to generate 7405 points initially and if this point is actually bettered, it sends a subliminal message that "bottom is in - for now" and continued growth toward 7470 can be hoped.

Visually, this is not the most attractive of suggestions as all it suggests is a bonk against the market downtrend since start of June and we'd really need the index to close above this line before waxing lyrical about 7589 somewhere in the distance!

For now, if taking a long position and waiting, it seems a stop loss can be established at 7300 - or slightly less. Alternately, if playing with short positions, it seems 7387 as about as tight as can be dared!

As for market direction, we rather suspect it shall move up with continued attempts to avoid RED. But visually, it appears the index risks bonking around between the upper BLUE & RED for a while.

Published 6/07/17 

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX)  Thursday proved rather indecisive on the FTSE. At lunchtime, we issued a report which laid out criteria for a drop on the market but some sort of sixth sense kicked in at the last moment. A shorthand note to clients warned should the FTSE better 7331 points, it felt like movement toward 7353 was pre-ordained. To our surprise, the index tripped the scenario and surged to 7354 points.

We're not happy, nor convinced.

This unusual client alert was issued as we were attempting "prove" the day low of 7303 was actually bottom. Depending on how our 7353 target was bettered, it would give ample ammunition to provide future upward predictions. Bettering our target by a single point was less than useful. Here's the problem - moves in the last week have failed introduce encouragement for any surprise upward surge as we're naively hoping to see the index better 7600. Instead, by closing Thursday at 7337 points out the FTSE is trading in a region where anything now below 7300 should provoke an initial 7269 points with secondary, if (when) broken at 7159 points. In theory, if the drop triggers, the market requires better 7354 points to squash the immediate drop potential. This, unfortunately, is the tightest stop loss level. The ideal stop loss would be placed just above a ridiculous sounding 7483 points.

There's a couple of small caveats making us nervous at proposing a full flavoured drop. Currently, apparently the top 20 world leaders are fighting the public around a Hamburger van somewhere in Germany and generally markets hop on the spot during these events. Fans of double bottoms will be eagerly viewing the FTSE as the index has painted 7300 twice recently, needing only above 7387 to make their dreams come true. Private clients are aware we've a slightly different trigger level as we tend prefer that exotic moment when our software stops reporting 2+2=4 but instead reports 4 is now greater than 2+2. However, it certainly appears anything now above 7387 theoretically will prove capable of 7451 next. If bettered, the longer term secondary calculates at 7590 points. And if triggered, stop can be just below 7353 at tightest although 7300 makes an uncomfortable load of sense.

Hopefully the G20 leaders succeed in getting better hamburgers than those usually available at roadside vans. We used to rate them in minutes with a particularly interesting one near Glencoe, Scotland, rated at just 45 minutes. This was the length of time it took to find a toilet following buying one of their offerings. The nearest town, alas, was Fort William which took 50 minutes of blind panic driving...

Published 5/07/17 

SPORTS DIRECT (LSE:SPD) Mr Ashley appears anointed with similar levels of adulation the media reserve for Mr Trump, Mr Corbyn, Brexit voters, or the Scottish Govt. It creates a situation where we tend filter out "white noise" styles of opinion masquerading as reporting. His appearance in the news this week demanded a further look at the company share price potentials tho' as there's always a risk the people crying wolf will finally be right about something.

Perhaps not this time.

Sports Direct share price has been essentially flatlining for a while, keeping us muted on future potentials. We can isolate a few trend lines which, if exceeded, will tend signal the direction the market intends take the share.

First, along the bottom of the chart is a discreet RED line. As is our preference, we've started this line from the most recent point of market manipulation (gap circled) as it indicates clearly SPD needs below 280p currently to justify the purchase of running shoes. After all, the share price has respected this trend with amazing clarity and it results in the situation where we need consider weakness below 280 driving the price to 240p initially with secondary, if broken, at 209p.

It's worth remembering we're not the only folk able to wield a RED crayon. When we witness such a neatly defined uptrend, we harbour an expectation the market will exhibit a fake drop prior to any rise and it provokes the conclusion we'd need see Sports Direct below 260p - the low following the start of the trend - before we'd dare assume any weakness below RED is actually valid. The market is perfectly capable of throwing a scare into people prior to any rise, something worth remembering.

After all, who'd complain at picking up some cheap shares due to a fake drop?

Identifying a rise is somewhat harder as we've a plethora of trends to select.

The most obvious - Dark Blue - currently demands SPD better 304.25p before any rise is considered serious. The more likely, Dashed Blue, suggests the price requires above 318p currently and the Light Blue one hints 333p is the key number to be bettered. This nonsense creates a cascade of reasons for taking a blooming hard look at near term potentials. Firstly, the most obvious signal should be movement above 301.5 as this is supposed to generate growth to 320p initially. At this point, it all gets a bit interesting as we'd require the share price to actually CLOSE a session above Dashed Blue prior to showing enthusiasm for the future. If it does, we're calculating a visit toward 365p further in the future.

With a movement like this, we can start speculation of some real price recovery as it becomes fairly easy to view 600p as presenting a seriously longer term attraction.

But for now, it's stuffed, tying itself in knots on a straight line. And do remember our warning about a probable fake droop prior to any growth.

Published 4/07/17 

WORLDPAY (LSE:WPG) Fairly understandably - given their 27% day, we were pelted with emails asking how far up the food chain Worldpay could be expected to clamber. The answer was more uncomfortable than we'd prefer as, try as we might, our software refused to give a sane answer!

The problem was simple.

By 1pm the share was trading at 409p and the computer resolutely refused to calculate anything beyond 405p. Thankfully, when the share stopped trading for the day we were able to look at intraday dance steps and throw the final 210 minutes of data at the computer and demand new answers. To be honest, we'd generally distrust this approach but given the share price appears reacting to minute by minute hyperbole, it's about all that's left to us.

With the share closing the session at 408p, we're left in little doubt this unusual approach "might" make sense but be aware, if the market starts gapping the share upward without warning during the session, our numbers could turn to mush pretty quickly.

The situation now is fairly simple. Above 423p points at an initial expectation of 438p with secondary, if bettered, at 466p where we once again exhaust numbers. If triggered, the price would need slop below 342p to cancel optimism and trash the immediate potentials. And if below 312p, buying running shoes looks like a good idea!

Published 3/07/17 

SAGA (LSE:SAGA) It's funny how customs differ. In England, better 100 years and you get a note from Her Majesty. In Scotland, better 50 years and (as Mrs T&T discovered last week) you immediately get a note from the Scottish Govt asking you to pooh on it. Additionally, folk like Saga start to bombard you with "offers".

Kidding aside, a Bowel Cancer testing kit genuinely beat mailings from the folks who make a living from an ageing population and the innocent looking envelope enjoys pride of place in the loo, unused, while Mrs T&T gathers courage to read the instructions. But it also reminded us to update our SAGA view as we'd lost interest in it by 2015 due to the share price' tendency to behave as if it were using a Zimmer frame.

We've had a target price of 230p for two years and the price would need limp below 187p to dash any residual optimism. Near term, it appears anything above 212p should prince a useless 215p into view. Critically though, if 215p is bettered it should prove difficult for the share to avoid 230p and this is where it all gets fascinating.

The concept of 230p presents a new "All Time High" for the price, boosting the company into a region with a distant 256p twinkling in the distance. The price requires break RED (currently 187p) to scupper this outlook.

Published 2/07/17 

FTSE FOR THE WEEK (FTSE:UKX) Usually the markets give us a bit of a gut feeling for what's coming but... for the coming week we're relatively clueless! Maybe it's the US Independence Day thing (or Brexit Mk1 as social media call it), maybe it's 'cos we're in a new month? Even shares are odd with the retail banks still hinting at underlying upward force. But Brent is finally showing some signs of heating up - hopefully once July 4th is forgotten we again will get a feel for things.

So, having given out a rather candid piece of "negative advertising" above, just where the heck is the FTSE going?

We started last week with an expectation of a 170 point droop, this feat not yet accomplished but unfortunately still very much on the cards. Near term, if the FTSE drips below 7300 then a visit to 7262 still looks preordained. The problem comes if 7262 breaks as 7156 enters the picture. To utterly trash such a miserable potential, the FTSE needs now better 7525 and thus, we need look for excuses to drive such growth.

The FTSE closed June at 7312 points and really needs better 7405 currently to exceed BLUE, the immediate downtrend. A miracle movement such as this is liable to provoke an initial 7470 points. The interesting item is the secondary as it indicates a market capable of growing faster than sodding weeds. Apparently, if 7470 is now bettered, the computer claims the next upward target where a stutter can be expected is at 7633 points. And this would be another all time high for the FTSE. One result of this calculation is fairly obvious as it implies a STOP against a coming drop can be tightened to just above 7470, perhaps even just above 7405.

Visually, our inclination is to expect 7156 making an appearance. Historically, we've noticed when Big Brother is on TV, the collective lowering of the nations IQ tends depress the markets and given the proximity of the RED uprend since start of 2016, it even makes visual sense.

FUTURES

Prior Months:

July 2017

June2017    All the usual culprits!

May2017

April 2017 BMR FLYBE TESLA Griifin Unilever 88 Energy United Airlines Sirius Ferrari Hays YouGov Lloyds Barclays RBS

March 2017 Aberdeen Ass Laura Ashley ARGOS A G BARR French Connection BHP AFC Aberdeen Asset Jubilee LLOYDS RBS BARC Debenhams GreatPortland Just Eat Sirius

February 2017 Ferrari Sound Proton Power SIRIUS_SXX Esure A)O World CARD Factory Gulf Keystone BMR RENTokill BARCLAYS LLOYDS RBS

January 2017 SIRIUS Ferrari Next Premier Vet GBPEUR LLOYDS SKY Capita FastJet Talk Talk British Telecom SKY Barclays RBS

December16 DOW JONES AO WORLD Ebay SIRIUS BMR Sirius Ferrari Next GBPEUR LLOYDS DIAGEO

November16 Includes FlyBe FastJet Johnston Press SKY Ferrari Rockhopper Lloyds Barclays RBS Sirius BMR Vodafone AMUR Minerals Chesnara Provexis

October16 Includes FTSE GBPEUR RBS Barclays The Dow Jones Ferrari Lloyds GOLD Strategic Minerals BMR PLUS500 DOW AGAIN Gulf Keystone Hurricane Countrywide Vodafone Zoldav

Sept16: Includes Range Resources Highland Natural Resources Cloudtag Tern Kodal UK Oil & Gas Gulf Keystone Hurricane Sirius Barclays San Leon Solo Chariot Sepura 88 Energy Gulf Keystone BMR Forbidden Tech HNR Sound Deutsche Bank Ferrari Twitter

August16 - includes Firstgroup Cobham Drax Edinburgh JimmyChoo Barclays Lloyds WilliamHill OilSector ProtonPower RBS DirectLine BMR JustEat BancaMonteDeiPaschidiSiena SiriusMinerals DixonsCarphone FERRARI Google SanLeon  WMIH  GulfKeystone