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Published 31/01/2018

SAVILLS & EURO/USD (LSE:SVS) There's something a bit funny going on with EURUSD as it appears pretty certain for this pairing to strength to 1.274 with anything above 1.254. Secondary, if bettered, calculates at 1.288 where some reversal becomes almost certain. Nothing to do with Savills, just something we noticed.

Savills, on the other hand, are worthy of some comment. On a day when we witnessed the UK Building sector experience a bit of a slapping, along with a few of the property companies given a kicking, Savills remained aloof, exactly as befits a share trading at all time highs.

To get the negative potentials out of the way first, Savills share price requires to trade below RED on the chart, currently 950p, to indicate real concern against the future. We're calculating below 950p as pointing at reversals toward 884p initially with secondary, if broken, at 809p where some sort of bounce looks mandated.

The brighter side of the picture, and due to our Higher High logic, the more probable scenario for the longer term, is of movements now bettering 1050p bringing growth to an initial 1136p with secondary, if (when) bettered at 1205p where some hiccups appear very probable. While Big Picture calculations claim we should write, "heading to 1323 and stop can be at 950", when looking hard at the 12 quid level we find a nasty little set of arguments favouring some volatility at such a point.

Of course, the market could simply opt to gap the share price up over such a hindrance but aside a couple of small examples, Savills do not have "form" with such behaviour.

Published 30/01/2018

SAGA (LSE:SAGA) It used to be the case, when you turned 50, SAGA bombarded you with mail. Nowadays - in Scotland anyway - when you turn 50 you are sent a Bowel Cancer test kit. Eventually, Mrs T&T became the victim of a practical joke £100 fine c/o the Scottish NHS due to her tardiness in returning the sample.

The funny thing is, while the Scottish Government noticed her age, she didn't receive the usual plethora of junk mail trash for funeral plans, cruising with coffins, cheaper car insurance, and similar recycle bin fodder.

Is something going on with the "Over 50's" market place?

SAGA' share price certainly appears to claim this is the case as something went horribly wrong in December last year. Thankfully, as the chart shows, there had been ample warning a few days previously when it broke through the uptrend since 2015 and promptly achieved a Lower Low than the prior 2017 dip. Finally, it indulged in a bonk against the prior trend before falling back, a pretty clear signal investors were about to send their money on a Saga Holiday!

Currently trading around 117p, the share price need only slip below 115 to point at the potential of coming weakness toward an initial 97p. Secondary, if broken, comes along at 67p - the ultimate bottom below which we cannot currently calculate.

To escape this living death sentence, the share price requires better just 125p as this should prove capable of useless recovery to an initial 135p. If bettered, we shall assume bottom is "in" and plan for a longer term 148p which, if exceeded, requires an entirely new look at the shares potentials.

Unfortunately, for now it seems 97p - and fingers crossed for a decent bounce will prove some sort of strategy. But if 97p, a trip down to 67p looks graven in headstone.

Published 29/01/2018

MERLIN ENTERTAINMENTS (LSE:MERL) Our last report on Merlin (link here) gave a pretty cynical, almost nasty, opinion on how the market has seen fit to manage this share price. Unfortunately, it appears we were correct with our overdose of cynical.

To get the wizardry out the road first, currently trading at around 333p, there's a pretty good chance it will exhibit some sort of bounce in the 324-329 range, one perhaps able to reach the low 350's. Unfortunately, we suspect such a recovery will not last as the big picture continues to calculate "bottom" at 313p, an area where a bounce is liable to be valid.

The "however" comes, should 313p be broken, as there's a massive risk of a new price cycle commencing down to 236p. Worse, while embracing such a foul potential, it's worth mentioning "ultimate bottom" comes along at 120p, the point we cannot calculate below.

While we anticipate a fake bounce anytime soon, what if the share price somehow betters 352p?

We'd take this as a sign bottom is "in", instead running upwardly mobile calculations. For instance, above 352p and we'd be looking for an initial stutter around the 365p level. Secondary, if bettered, feels like a game changing 374p, propelling the price into a region with 403p longer term. And then, we shall need stir the cauldron again!

Published 28/01/2018

FTSE THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX) Now Davos is complete, aside from the unseemly spectacle of politicians still digging around in the snow to find expense receipts, the FTSE has a fairly key level to exceed in the coming week. Alas, it also has another key level to avoid, one capable of trashing February.

The problem the index faces remains at a lowly 7606 points as this risks blasting the market down to 7575 if broken. Then, as mentioned previously, a break of 7575 risks introducing weakness down to 7450 or so. The funny thing about 7575 at a drop ambition is it presents a textbook "back-test" of the prior Light Blue trend. Invariably, if achieved, the market should be expected to bounce.

However, given the rather surprising strength illustrated by the market on Friday (even though our immediate drop&bounce scenario did not transpire!) we're now demanding the index better 7717 points in the coming week to give hope for the month. It's actually turning out to be a rather big deal as we're calculating 7783 as the initial growth target.

Secondary, if bettered, leaves us aghast as it's coming in at 7884 points. In fact, if we torment ourselves by fully extrapolating Fridays surprising FTSE movements, we're now supposed to believe the real attraction is from 7930 points!

For now, despite the plethora of upward potentials, we're pretty far from convinced but shall suspend disbelief if the market indeed betters 7717 points.

Published 25/01/2018

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) Our 100% success rate over FTSE for FRIDAY movements managed to remain intact last week but we're losing confidence due to the markets frequent inability to match secondary targets. This, often, can be a sign of coming trend changes.

While the world waits some sort of political faux pas from Davos, the FTSE itself seems poised for the worst as movement now below 7606 looks capable of dribbling down to 7575 where we can hope for bounce. The problem, if 7575 breaks, is of the index getting ready to enter February with a secondary target down at around 7450.

The funny thing is, normal trend behaviour almost demands a bounce around 7575 as movement below quite literally untangles the growth shown since last December. If we choose to work on the basis of expecting a bounce at the 7575 level, we've some strange criteria the index must achieve to convince any bounce has legs.

Firstly, we've an issue with the 7626, the initial target. Any bounce absolutely must better this to tick the first box of hope. Secondary, if bettered, comes along at 7670 though it's perhaps spectacularly naive to anticipate such strength on a Friday. Unfortunately, the second box we need ticked is at 7724 points, this being the most important one which shall confirm the final full week of January' drops were inspired by uninspiring politicians at Davos. When we review the last 5 years, we see a pattern emerge of "The World Economic Forum" provoking some boring and slightly depressing behaviour in the market place. Usually though, some optimism appears once the talking shop completes and visitors can return to the proper use of the place, winter sports.

Published 24/01/2018

BRAVEHEART INVESTMENT GROUP (LSE:BRH) As befitting Haggis Day in Scotland when we're all forced to recite poetry by a historical figure, thoughts of Mel Gibson immediately spring to mind and his outstanding performance as the countries national hero... In Braveheart!

Thankfully, there is an appropriate company trading with the same name, one which allows us to extract tongue from cheek and actually do some work. Historically, this lots share price movements have been quite fascinating, actually deserving of TWO charts to allow us to explain a pretty important facet of price behaviour.

The upper chart is our normal presentation, built using candles as they show the day open, high, low, and close prices. The lower chart is the interesting one as it simply highlights CLOSING prices.

What's important is fairly obvious, for some reason the market is preventing this share price to actually CLOSE a session above 19p. What piques our interest is the long term BLUE downtrend since 2011. It suggests sometime in the next few months the share price faces a "show & tell" decision as closure above 19p should bring some recovery toward 25p initially with secondary, if bettered, at 32p.

The flip side of the coin is at 14.5p - RED - as below this level will tend suggest "the market" really does not wish Braveheart to rise again as it could easily find itself forced back to 5.5p, effectively matching prior lows.

For now, we tend like the 19p glass ceiling as generally this sort of nonsense, coupled with a trend break, makes an upward surge fairly inevitable. As a result, it's doubtless worth watching Braveheart again...

Published 23/01/2018

AO WORLD (LSE:AO.) Perhaps there's a link between this lots share price and their truly irritating advertising jingle. A link, as in, now the advert is no longer on TV, the company share price is starting to make some interesting movement!

Last year, when reviewing this lot, we'd noted the potential of a bounce at 93p and it looks like the share opted to bounce before this level, "only" achieving 98p before a rebound. Hopefully this is an indication of some solid strength present as it allows us to plan for a reasonable future in terms of some recovery.

Currently trading around 148p, the immediate prospects suggest future trades now bettering 150p should prove capable of some growth toward an initial 168p. The fly in the ointment should such an ambition be attained comes with some almost certain reversal as it'd be truly rare for a share price to better a downtrend since 2014 without needing a pause for reflection. Only with closure above 168 dare we propose a secondary target at  a longer term 208p.

The funny thing, AO's share price was recently manipulated, gapped, whatever, UP and through both the uptrend since 2015 and the downtrend since 2014. It's almost as if the market is trying to tell us something for the future?

On the flop side of life, the price would need slip below 100p to suggest running shoes, though, to be fair, even below RED - currently 119p - would scare us silly.

For now, it's looking up though will probably require some patience.

Published 22/01/2018

SEVERN TRENT (LSE:SVT) We've been looking through shares not normally covered in our daily blurb in the hope of discovering some candidates for a "ISA 2018 Brigade". Some surprising potentials make themselves known, though SVT isn't one of them. YET!

The funny thing about SVT is, the share price has almost taken a full page advert in the FT to broadcast it intends dribble downhill to 1574p. Usually this sort of nonsense starts us twitching as invariably, obvious movements prove to be fakes. In this particular instance, we're not entirely convinced of fakery thanks to the circled movement back in June 2017. This, alone, gave early warning of pending leakage and now the price has splashed below the RED long term uptrend (since 2009) some severe weather appears ahead for this share price.

Some slight hope can be taken around the 18 quid level as an argument has made itself known favouring some sort of bounce at this point - plus or minus 20p thanks to the circled movement.

For now, to escape this mess, the share requires bubble above BLUE at 2195 currently to indicate immediate movements are simply a wet dream. Any frothy frivolity like this signals coming growth toward 2372 eventually, perhaps even an attempt at 2580 in the future.

If considering this as "ISA" fodder, perhaps worth keeping an eye on in case 1574 makes a guest appearance as we suspect it shall bounce quite nicely should this be achieved.

Published 21/01/2018

FTSE FOR THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX) The very best way of starting a Sunday turned out not to be dropping a glass bottle of cough medicine on the kitchen floor. It both bounced and shattered, sending red gloop and glass fragments everywhere. A planned 7am start to look hard at FTSE future potentials vanished, unlike the sticky red medicine.

When Mrs T&T finally wandered into the kitchen to find me standing with a mop, bare legs splattered with red medicine, and looking like I was clearing up a messy crime scene, I swear she did a quick count of the dogs! Once the kitchen was finally cleaned, a long shower beckoned and then the snow started.

Somewhere or other, there is a rule book which demands Golden Retrievers must be taken out as soon as it snows. By 11.30am, almost ready to turn on computers, there was a "thunk" as the power went off. For the 2nd time in a week (our local power grid reacts like a politician faced with a Twitter comment).

Sometimes, despite your best efforts, days just do not work out. It was to be early evening before the 7am plan was finally enacted and yes, did forget to buy replacement cough medicine during the day.

Last week was pretty lame on the FTSE, along with other world markets, and left us with a suspicion the reversal was not entirely genuine. The FTSE needed below 7640 to tick the first box for coming trauma  but the index bounced comfortably above this level.  To be realistic though, we'd now worry at weakness below such a  point as 7540 makes sense initially with secondary, if (when) broken at 7455 points and hopefully a genuine bounce.

The other side of the coin comes from movement at the end of last week. The market bettered our initial day trade target of 7719, closing the session at 7729 points. As a result, while near term traffic above 7732 should indicate 7749 coming into play, our inclination is to ignore such an ambition as a strong argument now favours 7779 points initially with secondary, if bettered, at 7810 points. If this level is achieved and bettered during the week, we need to revisit the index as a new all time high demands a close look.

Of course, we're approaching Davos season and suspect the markets will "park" for a few days while the talking shop continues.

Published 17/01/2018

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE;UKX) "A Bitcoin for your Birthday?" Why spend 11,700 dollars on something which is worth 9,400 dollars by the end of this sentence! "Oh look, someone just paid 12,530 for one while someone sold one for 9,908". It has been a crazy week for Bitcon, traversing from 15,100 down to 9170.

It's probably important to mention, politely, we're now showing the potential of 6,400 making an appearance as a bottom. It should bounce. The FTSE on the other hand continues our 100% success rate on this, our incredibly popular FTSE FOR FRIDAY mutter.

The reversals shown during the last few days have tended be arithmetically precise, meaning, from our perspective the market had a pretty firm idea of where it was going. Near term, we shall be interested if the FTSE betters 7711 points as it should provoke recovery toward a pretty lame sounding 7719 points. Secondary, if bettered, comes along at a more useful 7749 points. If triggered, stop can be at 7681 points which is fairly reasonable.

Of course, with a week low at 7683 points, what happens if the market wanders below such a point? Initially, we are looking for 7660 points with secondary, if broken, at 7640 where is almost must exhibit a bounce. If the drop cycle triggers, stop can be at 7711 points.

As always, please remember we are discussing FTSE movements during market open hours. And have a good weekend too.

Published 17/01/2018

Rockhopper Exploration (LSE:RKH) This has got exciting beyond words as it starts to appear the penguin was not dead. Fond memories of Desire Petroleum tend colour our Falklands judgement but, to be fair, it seems this particular penguin shaped parrot is not nailed to its perch.

In fact, if we were to believe the tea-leaves, they demand we view Rockhopper as heading to 35p on the immediate price cycle, perhaps even a longer term 40p where a stumble almost must occur, if only due to the presence of highs in 2016 where a bunch of folk trapped will doubtless dump their holdings at the price purchased. We call it the Babe phenomena (bail at break even). Whilst this perhaps sounds like an attempt at humour, it is unfortunately a very real occurrence, one which regularly provokes 'Glass Ceilings' in share price movements.

In fact, it will often take two or three donks against a Glass Ceiling until selling pressure by Babes diminishes!

Currently trading around the 27p mark, RKH need only better 28p to make an attempt at a near term 29.5 initially. Secondary, if bettered, calculates at 32.5p.   Once again, if we apply the Babe principle, the high of early 2017 indicates there shall probably be some sort of stutter in the 29.5 to 32.5 zone but common sense suggests once the price actually closes above the 30p level, future recovery will make sense.

For now, we're fairly relaxed about this lots prospects as visually it needs crumble below 20p (RED) to incite concern. In fact, closure below such a point would invoke memories of Desires last stand...

Published 16/01/2018

POUND vs EURO (FX:GBPEUR) Despite the war of the chocolate coins now becoming boring, recent movements against this currency pair actually illustrate a worthwhile piece of trend logic. Needless to say, it's all to do with Highs and Lows, topical due to the snow outside!

Similar to the pairing with the US Dollar, something seemed to change at the start of last December with Sterling breaking through the immediate downtrend since 2015. Since then, nothing has really happened.

Following a movement through an obvious trend, we demand a series of "Higher Highs" to give that comfortable glow of something positive happening. But in the case of this relationship, it's not really happening and instead, we see the pair value dribbling down above the prior trend and now at real risk of danger. The converse of Higher Highs is obviously Lower Lows and following the trend break, if this pair weakens below 1.12 (currently 1.1251) then we'd expect weakness down to 1.11.

At this level, danger enters the picture as a "Lower Low" makes itself known, or perhaps more expressively, the market is loosing faith. Should 1.11 be broken, reversal toward 1.085 looks inevitable with secondary, if worsened, down at 1.0675. And this would be extremely bad, throwing petrol on a raging fire by both breaking the uptrend since 2009, establishing a new Low, and making parity almost inevitable.

Of course, as with all scenario, despite our immediate concern this is a sodding great "however".

There is one peculiar phenomena with a price which tracks a prior trend. Often, it indicates the market is simply waiting for a change in circumstances or news flow with the result any upward surge will be quite vivid.

In the case of the Pound/Euro playground, trading above 1.135 should serve early warning of a coming change in direction as this calculates with the potential of 1.16 initially with secondary, if bettered, a very probable 1.21.

For now, the zombie pairing is simply a concern but one which is liable to become interesting fairly soon.

Published 15/01/2018

POUND vs US DOLLAR FX:GBPUSD Once upon a time, there was a terrible US President who, holding power at the same time as a terrible UK Government, ensured markets did better than before, currencies stabilised, and the rain stopped. Aside from the rain, this fairy story seems true!

One perhaps has a sneaking suspicion, markets are doing well due to the incompetence of governance available - or in plain English, now politicians have stopped meddling, things continue to recover.

A case in point is CABLE, the Pound / Dollar relationship. Until the start of December last year, we had a strong belief this pairing was intent on parity. As with the stock markets, things changed at the start of December and now we suspect GBPUSD is on a path toward 1.40 initially with secondary, if bettered, at 1.49 along with an almost certain stumble.

In other words, if planning a ski trip to Vail, Colorado, the price just eased in extortionate territory.

We've painted a cheerful RED line across the bottom of the chart, currently at 1.20. This line dates back to 1985! The relationship requires to founder below this level to once again introduce terror to the Forex playground. An event such as this again will make parity almost inevitable but worse is possible.

For now, it really feels like 1.49 is the underlying intention with the Pound / Dollar pair.

Published 14/01/2018

THE FTSE THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX) By normal standards, the market is approaching a level where we'd normally anticipate some trauma around the 7840 point region. But as the US markets continue to prove, conventional arguments tend founder in the current climate of blind optimism.

Some slight hope of logic prevailing appeared on Friday, when we'd given a FTSE target of 7,793 which was attained but not actually beaten. The failure to reach our initial target by just 0.44 points tends suggest we are actually monitoring the correct movement table, always a relief, and it also indicates the market remains playing by "the rules" while the US marches to a tune we cannot yet hear.

What we're trying to say is, by all means go short around the 7,840 level but for goodness sake use a tight stop. The issue comes should 7,840 be bettered as we start to develop ambitions well above the 8,000 point level.

In fact, if we now model FTSE growth against US strengths, we are now able to look at 8,711 points in the distant future! This, of course, carries the naive assumption the US markets shall continue to behave like lunatics.

For the FTSE to justify concern, the index needs slip below 7,580 (RED) just to indicate the surge since the start of December is easing. This would theoretically open the doors for weakness to 7,450. Secondary, if broken, currently calculates at 7,375 points.

As the markets continue to prove, there is NO RULE which says something going down must go up or, something going UP must come down.

Published 11/01/2018

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) So far this year, our world famous FTSE for FRIDAY freebie has experienced a 100% success rate. Which isn't saying a lot, given this is our 2nd Friday! The reverse limbo dance the markets play continues to fascinate with early signs being Friday 12th should prove an up day on the market.

It appears bettering 7770 shall prove crucial as this apparently should provoke growth toward 7793 points. We've a major question mark over the secondary, should 7793 be exceeded, as it comes along at 7840 points, an area where we'd expect some trauma to intrude.

Of course, the "trauma" issue is proving a problem against the US markets as the DOW seems determined to ignore conventional protocols in its never ending trudge uphill. Experience tends suggest some sort of excuse shall be found to introduce volatility but, when reviewing the usual culprits - the banking sector - aside from Barclays there seems a degree of determination for upward growth.

Please do remember, we're discussing the FTSE above, during trading hours, and NOT FTSE after hours futures.

We're almost resigned to using charts to spot reversal points. Currently, the FTSE indicates weakness below 7330 points should bring the index back to 7690 initially with secondary, if broken, at 7665 points. However, there seems little doubt the FTSE is starting exhibit similar runaway train potentials - as being shown in the USA - with the result spotting "proper" reversal levels risks proving a naive concept, for now!

We've spent the week extrapolating target levels against the Dow Jones, based entirely on analysis against individual shares. Whilst the majority of target levels now are proving correct, the bugbear proves to be the timeframe element as we not only need prices to move to target but ideally, all do it within an immediate time period. Which, realistically, will never happen! About the only thing we feel safe proposing is, should Goldman Sachs reach the 290 level, shorting the DOW will probably make a lot of sense. But remember to cross your fingers too!

Published 10/01/2018

HURRICANE ENERGY & BITCON too (LSE:HUR) With Bitcoin now being listed on a "respectable" exchange, we'd hoped some sanity would enter its movement. Currently trading around 14,450, we are seeing early signs of coming shuffles which should provide some opportunity.

Essentially, Bitcoin is trading in a region where weakness now below 13,335 should bring relaxation toward 11,490. In itself, probably the point where some sort of bounce can be hoped but should 11,490 be broken, we're calculating an express ride down to 6,370. And this is the area where a real bounce shall make sense. Currently it needs exceed 16,870 to cancel this scenario.

HURRICANE ENERGY is starting to look interesting again. (last analysis here) We're showing a "long term" (ie; maybe tomorrow, maybe months away) target currently at 42p and this risks being fairly significant. Essentially, any movement above the 42p mark and we can start planning for 44.5p next with secondary, if bettered even slightly, at 51p.

The 51p level, while being a blooming great leg up from current, still falls far short of last years highs and worse, tends suggest some stutters can be anticipated at such a point. There is a slightly funny aspect as should this rising cycle be powered by the flow of good news, it's already fairly easy to anticipate a future 74p making itself known.

Of course, in the interests of sanity, it's also worth remembering the RED line across the bottom of the chart. Movement now below 24p would worry us quite a lot, calculating with the potential of 17.5p initially with secondary an "ultimate" bottom at 0.575p.

Visually though, for now it does not stink!

Published 09/01/2018

JUBILEE METALS (LSE:JLP) How we laughed, somewhat uncontrollably, seeing the DOW close the session at our target level or as near as dammit. (Out by 1.4 points) The problem was, it cheerfully ignored all other logic during the session itself, this doubtless caused by the inability of measuring timeframes.

We're not intending abandon our approach however as it did bring one thing to the fore. The bias amongst DOW components indicated an UP day was coming and if this new methodology only gives one "safe" indicator, we'll be happy knowing market direction a day in advance!

JUBILEE METALS are proving mildly interesting. Until September last year the share price had been wallowing in a hole, one which indicated a bottom potential at just 0.5p. But as the chart below highlights, the share price was permitted through the downtrend since 2010 and while incredible respect has been paid to this historical BLUE line, exquisite care has been taken to ensure the price never actually closed below BLUE in the months since.

Usually we take heed of this sort of nonsense as it generally indicates the market has an expectation, perhaps a stream of positive news is expected, perhaps "they" just do not with the price stuffed into the ground!

Regardless, the situation now looks slightly worthwhile as movement now above 4p should provoke growth to an initial 4.25p with secondary, if bettered, a very possible 5.86p. The important thing for the longer term looks like the potentials should the share ever manage to actually CLOSE above 4.875p, the high prior to the trend break. For a bunch of boring reasons, we'll take a future look at this as its long term prospects become quite strong due to the top of the immediate BLUE downtrend hovering around the 40p mark. This alone is liable to provide considerable strength in the event the price starts move up again.

For now, it's not stuffed and visually just hibernating we think. But perhaps worth keeping an eye on.

Published 08/01/2018

CHARIOT OIL (LSE:CHAR) & BRENT CRUDE too. We've just about reached our wits end with the DOW, so it was time to sit back and chill while running the numbers against every single DOW constituent. And as a result, we calculated the DOW should be heading to 25,335 points next, this being a point where some reversal is probable.

We should warn, this method of calculating a target is new and while it resulted in a sensible sounding ambition, we've never tried this concept before due to the requirement of assuming time frames correctly against each share. Our "normal" caveat is to duck time frames due to the ritual humiliation they inflict but in this case, we either abandon the DOW JONES or alter our approach.

As for CHARIOT OIL, the tea leaves don't entirely stink. The current situation is a bit odd with the price calculating as heading to 25.5p with any movement now bettering 23.7p. While utterly insignificant, the implication should 25.5p be exceeded is of continued growth coming to an initial 32.5p with secondary, if bettered, at 51p.

Visually, this is quite a big deal, taking the price finally to an area of new highs, along with the hope from a heck of a lot of people the share will "cover the gap". Unfortunately, we're not yet showing sufficient impetus for such a scenario as, even with a stonking great news release, the best we could sanely hope is around 65p. For it all to go wrong, the price needs weaken below 11p!

While we're not promising anything, it certainly appears this particular share price is in some way mimicking the current share in Crude Oil prices as currently there's a heck of an argument favouring 69 USD as the next major target against BRENT. Our longer term secondary comes along at 86 USD, almost promising a bonk against the long term downtrend sometime in mid-2018

Published 07/01/2018

FTSE OUTLOOK (FTSE:UKX) In our first "Friday Smug Git" award for 2018, the FTSE managed a high of 7727 points. Our target was 7726 points. Unfortunately, given the days trading range was only 38 points, it was not the most exciting event but it did mirror the rather boring first fake week at work.

This week should hopefully prove more interesting as many grown ups return to work following a proper festive break. They shall be faced with the situation of a FTSE now trading higher than ever before and better still, breaking above the horrible 7,100 to 7,600 trading range 2017 inflicted upon us. The situation now is fairly straightforward. In the event of the index beating 7728 points, we're looking for growth toward 7750 points next.

While perhaps this is not terribly exciting, should 7750 be bettered, a longer term cycle toward 7933 will be seen commencing. In fact, we're probably risking being a bit bashful as the big picture calculation tosses out 8,200 points as a major point of interest in the future.

Of course, we've always a "however" to dust down and polish. The FTSE had, what we call a "glass ceiling" at 7,600 points. When shares break above these artificial constructs, invariably we witness a movement to our initial target level - 7,750 - before a share price rewinds, almost as if gathering strength for the next surge upward. It results in the situation where we should probably look for danger signals on the FTSE (though we're at an utter loss with the DOW JONES!)

For any weakness on the FTSE to start ringing alarm bells, below 7540 indicates the potential of a drift down to 7440 initially with secondary, if broken, a very probable bottom around 7290 points.

Published 04/01/2018

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) On this day in history, our grandchildren go home. Two weeks of "bliss" completed and how we shall miss the sound of an electric guitar, a microphone, and the talents of two girls who can neither sing nor play guitar - especially at 7am. Daily.

It's also a reminder the grown ups will probably return to their desks on Monday, doubtless looking forward to untangling share price movements since the 22nd December.

Except, of course, the retail banks. But STANDARD CHARTERED has become interesting, perhaps a harbinger of times ahead?

The DOW JONES, along with the S&P, both stretch our credulity, along with our ability to fashion upward target levels. To be blunt, if the DOW JONES makes it above 25139 points, you're on your own. Given the day high on the 4th was 25105 (and futures achieved 25110) the index is getting painfully close to calling our bluff.

On the other hand, the constantly underperforming FTSE actually managed attain a new all time high at 7702 points, now promising traffic above 7700 near term should face a bit of a stutter at a useless 7707 points. Secondary, should 7707 be bettered, wanders along at 7726 points. While not particularly ambitious, this seems sane given the lacklustre movement in the last few days.

Of course, the flip side to this comes with RED on the chart below. Currently at 7670, a break below should illustrate an initial 7656 points. The problem comes should 7656 break as it will tend indicate weakness is genuine, setting a scenario where secondary makes itself known at 7615 points.

Published 03/01/2018

THE FTSE (FTSE:UKX) Usually, the festive period is a "feet up" time with stock markets making pretend movements, designed to conceal prices actually being marched on the spot. Gleefully, we take full advantage of Scotland enjoying the 1st & 2nd off, following New Year. Oops moment!

Worse actually, half the team are still on holiday and when faced with TWENTY ONE  targets met amongst shares on OUR first day back, it proved quite a shock to the system. The "problem" of course is the FTSE. We'd spent December banging on about the need for the FTSE to actually close above  7563. The index achieved this ambition at Xmas eve, cheerfully blasting skyward to 7700 in the period since. For some reason, this very real instance of "higher highs" always provokes some flamboyant behaviour but amongst FTSE 100 shares, there have been some truly wonderful breaks upward.

Except, of course, the retail banks.

The situation now is fairly simple. In the event of the FTSE bettering 7715 points anytime soon, it should commence a cycle toward 7840 points or so. Secondary, should such a target be exceeded, wanders along at 7896 points.

To spoil the party, the index requires break RED on the chart, currently lurking at 7540 points. Such a break computes with 7470 initially with secondary, if broken, a fairly traumatic 7320. This, of course, would turn Decembers dance steps into a "did that really happen" scenario...

Happy New Year and our very best wishes for the future. And futures.

Prior Months:

December 2017

November 2017

October 2017

September 2017

August 2017

July 2017

June2017    All the usual culprits!

May2017

April 2017 BMR FLYBE TESLA Griifin Unilever 88 Energy United Airlines Sirius Ferrari Hays YouGov Lloyds Barclays RBS

March 2017 Aberdeen Ass Laura Ashley ARGOS A G BARR French Connection BHP AFC Aberdeen Asset Jubilee LLOYDS RBS BARC Debenhams GreatPortland Just Eat Sirius

February 2017 Ferrari Sound Proton Power SIRIUS_SXX Esure A)O World CARD Factory Gulf Keystone BMR RENTokill BARCLAYS LLOYDS RBS

January 2017 SIRIUS Ferrari Next Premier Vet GBPEUR LLOYDS SKY Capita FastJet Talk Talk British Telecom SKY Barclays RBS

December16 DOW JONES AO WORLD Ebay SIRIUS BMR Sirius Ferrari Next GBPEUR LLOYDS DIAGEO

November16 Includes FlyBe FastJet Johnston Press SKY Ferrari Rockhopper Lloyds Barclays RBS Sirius BMR Vodafone AMUR Minerals Chesnara Provexis

October16 Includes FTSE GBPEUR RBS Barclays The Dow Jones Ferrari Lloyds GOLD Strategic Minerals BMR PLUS500 DOW AGAIN Gulf Keystone Hurricane Countrywide Vodafone Zoldav

Sept16: Includes Range Resources Highland Natural Resources Cloudtag Tern Kodal UK Oil & Gas Gulf Keystone Hurricane Sirius Barclays San Leon Solo Chariot Sepura 88 Energy Gulf Keystone BMR Forbidden Tech HNR Sound Deutsche Bank Ferrari Twitter

August16 - includes Firstgroup Cobham Drax Edinburgh JimmyChoo Barclays Lloyds WilliamHill OilSector ProtonPower RBS DirectLine BMR JustEat BancaMonteDeiPaschidiSiena SiriusMinerals DixonsCarphone FERRARI Google SanLeon  WMIH  GulfKeystone