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Published 1/11/2017 

BARCLAYS (LSE:BARC) and BITCOIN We'd written a wonderful self congratulatory article about Bitcoin, due to it achieving (and retreating from) our target high of 6595. Calling up a chart revealed the sodding pairing had bettered 6595 (against all logic) while it was being written about. So, unless Bitcoin breaks below 6409 (making a short valid), we're clueless for now!

BARCLAYS on the other hand is easier to deal with. We've been banging on about an expectation of weakness to 178p and thus far, the share has resolutely avoided this doom. While our secondary - should 178p break -  is at 168p, a doubt is starting to sneak in as the completely illogical argument of "if it ain't goin' down, it's goin' up" tends prove valid more often than you would expect.

Of course, we cannot help but wonder if the market has noticed the unpleasant detail, should BARCLAYS close below 180p, the ruling longer term attraction comes from 148p. It also begs the question, what's with all the drop targets ending in "8".

What does Barclays need do to signal "it's goin' up" ?

Bettering 190.5p would be a fairly reasonable movement. This would tend confirm the market does not wish Barclays below 180p, hinting at fairly useless growth coming toward 197.25p.  Critically, as the chart shows this betters the immediate downtrend for 2017, giving hope for the future.  Our secondary, if such a point exceeded, comes along at 213p.

There's a fairly big however, due to the prior highs matching the 197p level. Perhaps holding off on the party poppers will prove wise until such time the share actually closes above 197p.

Published 31/10/2017 

BMR GROUP (LSE:BMR) BREXIT and BMR have quite a bit in common. For instance, despite a lot of talk, the last few months have been punctuated by the production of absolutely nothing. Additionally, people tend get bored with an absence of action. However...

BMR is approaching a trend we're not sure exists. The Dashing Blue line on the chart below dates back to 2011 and we have not entirely figured out if the price is reacting to the imaginary line. The immediate danger though is of weakness below 3p probably causing a plunge toward 2.35p.

This particular scenario stinks as 2.35p would represent a new all time low for BMR and while a final plunge before tackling a major trend makes sense, we'd be extremely concerned should 2.35 break for any reason as we cannot calculate below such a point.

On the basis our imaginary trend line proves to be the real deal, common sense along suggests any break above 4.5 during November should bring an initial 5.6p to the fore. Secondary, if (when) bettered is a more optimistic sounding 7.1p.

If the share price opts to follow common sense, the visuals suggest any weakness which reaches 3p should bounce from RED and then, it all becomes a matter of buying lucky charms in the hope a break above the Dashing Blue line provides some upward entertainment.

Published 30/10/2017 

ASCENT RESOURCES (LSE:AST) plus GKP too In keeping with the commercial spirit of Halloween, we should probably mention Gulf Keystone' share price. It appears liable to give a fright to those shorting it as movement into the 120's looks probable. The price needs break 90p to throw a fright into our calculations.

As for ASCENT, it's on the edge of doing something stupid. Suffice to suggest it dare not close below 1.875p as a bunch of folk who believe in "double tops" will assume the price doomed. This often self fulfilling prophecy comes with baggage, due to closure below signalling coming weakness toward 1.5p initially with secondary, if broken, at 0.91p. If triggered, the price requires better BLUE, currently 2.2p, to cancel the prospect of a burial ceremony.

Hopefully the 1.5p thing proves capable of a bounce, due to the proximity of the uptrend since 2016.

However, if greater interest is the potential should 2.2p be bettered. Currently trading at 1.9p, there's surely not much required - aside from the inconvenient detail the price was forced down at the open of the 30th October.

Above 2.2p should prove capable of bringing fairly near term oomph toward 2.67p. This visually provides a nuisance outlook as it implies any rise may falter at the level of prior highs, creating one of our hated Glass Ceiling scenerio. Only with closure above 2.67p dare we express real hope for miracle recovery coming, due to the attraction from 3.85p.

By any standards, this lot are proving complex. It seems reasonable to suspect the move on the 30th October is probably designed to slow things down, perhaps with a final death spike to challenge the RED uptrend before any miracle rebound.

Published 29/10/2017 

FTSE THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX) Sometimes trends are strange. For the week ahead on the FTSE some nerves feel apparent. Given events in Europe, it seems sensible to suspect the markets are ready to panic if Spain opts to increase its political prisoner count and react harshly against its own population.

However, the FTSE, while nervous, appears to want to go up and above 7520 remains pointing at 7561 making an important guest appearance. The strange thing we refer to is what happens if 7561 exceeded?

In such a case, continued growth toward 7602 is expected and visually this indicates a challenge against the prior high back in June. It's really odd how calculations change until suddenly a good reason for both a Rise and Pause appear. It would be crackers not to anticipate some sort of stutter on the markets should 7602 appear.

The crazy thing is, we're speculating about a near 100 point movement which is quite a small amount in the grand scheme of things. Perhaps of combination of Brexit and the prospect of another Spanish Civil War are tending keep things calm.

There's been a pretty obvious uptrend since September which indicates the FTSE requires break below 7457 current (the dashing red line) to indicate any form of slow-down coming. In the event of such a break, leakage down to an initial 7403 remains sane with secondary, if broken, at 7308 and a probable need for us to panic and revisit our numbers.

Hopefully Spain behaves itself. We shall revisit during the week if things somehow move fast.

Published 26/10/2017 

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) Since seeing a UFO above our office in Argyll a couple of months ago, literally every evenings analysis work finishes with a wander outside to look at the sky. It's Scotland of course, rains a lot. And is cloudy even more, with a starry night something for the imagination.

The last month for the markets has proven equally uninspiring with many movement triggers hit but shares remaining wandering around aimlessly, like us staring at a cloudy sky while wanting again to see a star turn right. Thankfully, the market feels like a change is coming due to the last few sessions giving more volatility than seen during October.

On the FTSE itself (not after hours futures), the situation now is of movement above 7520 pointing at coming growth toward 7539 points initially. Secondary, if bettered, comes along at 7561 points, rather effectively challenging the immediate downtrend since June this year. If triggered, we'd be alarmed should the index slither below 7487 as it would tend challenge the logic for an upward surge. In fact, if we're blunt, we'd prefer a wider stop below RED on the chart, currently 7450 points. Of course, this makes a heck of a wide stop and an unfavourable Risk / Reward scenario.

What happens if 7450 breaks?

Initially we'd anticipate weakness to 7403 points with secondary, if broken, at 7345 points. If triggered, the tightest stop looks like 7586 points but visually we're less than convinced a drop is coming.

Have a good weekend.

Published 25/10/2017 

LLOYDS BANK & GBPUSD (LSE:LLOY & FX:GBPUSD) The pairing, GBPUSD, known as "Cable" proves there's nothing more stupid than an unasked question! For years, we've cheerfully used "cable" without knowing where the term came from...

A couple of seconds with Google revealed it relates to the original transatlantic telegraph cables being used to transact exchanges between Sterling and the Dollar. While this makes simplistic sense, we wonder why Forex Trades are not now known as "Fibs" due to the plethora of manipulation actions, along with the data now being sent by "Fibre Optics".

Anyway, GBPUSD is currently trading around 1.326 and movement near term above 1.3273 looks capable of a fairly significant 1.331. This would present a "higher high" and indicate coming growth to a trend testing 1.3558 by the start of November.

LLOYDS BANK We've been a bit lazy in taking our monthly look at the retail banks, essentially 'cos collectively they're not doing a heck of a lot. Lloyds for instance has enjoyed a range of 2.5p during October, leaving us breathless with boredom. However...

There are early signs things are changing as moves now above 68.25p should indicate coming growth to 73p apparently. Visually, the downtrend since 2015 provides a fly in the ointment as the Light Blue line is currently around 70p and we'd suspect some folks will experience collywobbles in any near term rises. To be honest, it's hard to blame them due to Lloyds recent lethargic dance steps. Our secondary above 73 calculates at a less confident 76p but common sense tends promise a stutter at the 73p level given it matches the highs earlier this year.

Finally, if it gets below RED (64p) for any reason, we'd be inclined to panic a bit as while 62p makes a lot of sense, the fact the share would break such a solid uptrend could easily provoke some really sharp reversals.

Published 24/10/2017 

GREATLAND GOLD (LSE:GGP) and FTSE thoughts too. We're probably not the only folk who've noted the FTSE has been as boring as heck for the last few weeks. Eventually, the penny dropped. A flat trend has developed at 7520 with roughly Plus or Minus 40 point range.

In other words, if the market currently is above 7520, opening a SHORT with a stop above 7560 makes sense. Alternately, if it's below 7520, going LONG with a stop below 7485 should work. In either instance, the target should be 7520 points.

How long will this state of affairs last?

If we view October during the last few years, generally this weird period falls apart by the end of the month with some direction being shown. It's interesting to note when the trend breaks, any initial direction is liable to prove not long lasting. Given the FTSE actually has quite a strong long term upward pressure currently, this somewhat dodgy logic implies the market might drop a few hundred points but nothing worth panicking about unless 7300 breaks. Equally, the FTSE could opt to break upwards, perhaps to around 7680 points or so.

GREATLAND GOLD (LSE:GGP)  We've received a few emails about Greatland, presumably due to this months sessions proving incredibly encouraging. Unfortunately, we've a small problem with the price rises (thus far) as our target level calculates at 2.81p. Unfortunately rises appear stalling at 2.5p but anything now above 2.56 should prove capable of 2.81p eventually.

Visually, this is liable to be quite a big deal, signalling a secondary of 3.5p - or even 5.6p if turbo charged with positive news.

As for trouble, it needs break RED at a useless 0.6p to indicate panic. To be fair though, when we break it down to minute by minute shuffles, even below 1.6p gives ample excuse for severe concern. (Perhaps indicating Todd Hoffman is giving them advice... - a GoldRush joke)

Published 23/10/2017 

SEEING MACHINES (LSE:SEE) We last reviewed this back at the start of 2015 (link here) and unfortunately the share price used the period since to studiously avoid bettering our criteria for any upward travel. However, to judge by a bunch of emails, expectations perhaps are changing.

The ruling downtrend since 2014 is currently around 4.716p and doubtless folk will have noted the price actually briefly bettered this on 23rd October. Additionally, the movement above the trend was not due to a spike upward in the opening minute of trade and generally this will suggest the growth to be genuine, giving hope for the future. Now, the situation is of closure above 4.71p carrying the expectation of coming recovery to 5.9p initially with secondary, if bettered, at a longer term 8.6p.

In fact, if we apply our glass ceiling rules, even closure above 4.64p should serve to indicate some upward integrity can be viewed. Perhaps, once again, Seeing Machines is worth keeping an eye on.

Of course, there's a downside. Last time we looked at this, we'd speculated a bottom at 3.25p and the share actually managed to close below this level at 2.6p. From our perspective, this was A BAD THING as we couldn't calculate misery below 3.25p. The immediate situation places the long term uptrend at 2.875p, comfortably distant from the current share price. Moves below 2.875 tend now point rather firmly to an ultimate bottom of 1p. Visually, unlikely - we hope!

Published 22/10/2017 

FTSE THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX) Recent movements with the market taught one thing. Sneezing while lazily brushing teeth with an electric toothbrush is bad, especially in front of three market monitor screens at 8am on a Friday. The subsequent mess took ages to clean but alas, the FTSE's intentions remain a bit unclear.

It's unclear what provoked the killer sneeze but the movement by the FTSE at the open of trading on Friday was not clever.

We hate spikes upward at the open of trade as generally they presage a wasted day. Essentially, it feels like the market indulges all the work for the day during the first few seconds, then leaves everyone hanging. Our argument remains - if an upward spike at the open is not bettered within the first 90 minutes, why not go do something else.

Also, the converse remains true - if a downward spike occurs at the open, perhaps some excitement is planned for the day.

But finally, what if a price is gapped UP, then spiked UP further at the open? There seems no consistent argument favouring what the market is trying to tell us.

We'd certainly be alarmed if the FTSE finds an excuse to slip below 7482 points in the coming week. It would tend suggest weakness is coming toward 7430 points. Secondary, if such a level breaks, is at 7345 points. However, we've a bunch of arguments favouring a bounce must occur somewhere between 7410 and 7430. Thus, if chasing a bounce, going long at 7430 with a fairly tight stop around 7410 shall make sense.

Any bounce will be hoping to reach 7500 initially.

There's a big elephant in the room as the FTSE is already viewed as heading toward 7630 initially, perhaps even 7680 if bettered. To cancel this prospect, the index will require to slip below 7430 points currently. Despite the last few weeks of relative flatline behaviour, we suspect the next proper move on the FTSE will prove to be upwards.

Politicians permitting...

Published 19/10/2017  

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) & SPAIN Too. Having lived through the Scottish independence thing, we've a horrid fascination watching events in Spain unfold and suspect the worst is coming. Of course, we've kept a close eye on the IBEX and it starts to appear the Spanish Index also fears trouble ahead.

Currently trading around 10172, should the index kick itself below 10100, it ticks the first box for quite severe reversals initially to around 9950 points. At this point, it's in serious trouble as our secondary is now around 9250 points. If triggered, stop can be very tight as we'd tend anticipate a fake drop to be followed by a spike to around 10,300 points. Then it's very possible the real drop will commence.

Our reasoning behind such a convoluted scenario is simple. The market is perfectly aware quite a few folk will be watching and we all know how amusing it is when a buy order is triggered, then the stop loss hit just a few minutes later. Neatly killing a trade!

As for the FTSE, this week has proven rubbish with minimal movements. We're inclined to slight optimism for Friday as the market feels like it only requires better 7538 points to provoke a useless 7548 points with secondary, if (when) bettered at 7570 points. If triggered, stop can be placed around 7504 points to reflect the immediate uptrend.

So, what happens if 7504 breaks?

A visit initially toward 7486 makes sense. Secondary comes in at 7466 points. Stop comes in at a quite reasonable 7526 points.

Have a good weekend.

Published 18/10/2017 

THE DOW & BITCOIN (DOWi:DJI & BTCUSD) We've quite strong suspicions about crpyto-currencies, primarily due to reliable historical information as quite a few of the exchanges seemed run by enthusiasts giving widely different rates. In fact, it's very similar to the UK Pound relationship with the Euro currently. However...

From the start of September this year, it seems Bitcoin is starting to represent a "proper" pairing as the relationship against the US Dollar illustrated some volatility which, from our perspective, made sense. Rather effectively, a considerable effort was made to introduce a proper trend in the relationship, one which suggests further upward moves are possible.

The situation now is of growth above 5850 leading to 6395 initially with secondary, if (when) bettered at a longer term 6595. If our reading of the force applied is correct, opening a short at 6595 with a seriously tight stop should make a lot of sense. With this sort of nonsense, generally an attempt to confirm a trend occurs and in the case of Bitcoin, reversal to around 4000 should work!

THE DOW JONES INDEX  Some months ago, we'd postulated the DOW reaching 22390, perhaps even 22480. We'd a fairly major problem at the 22480 level as the index could not exceed such a point, at least according to our software. Needless to say, the DOW quite cheerfully ignored our handiwork and continued skyward, continuing to humiliate our big picture logic.

We've spent rather an absurd amount of time on this conundrum as it's uncomfortable to say the least.

Something surprising has become evident.

When we examine individual components of the DOW JONES, they continue to behave logically. The problem comes with the number opting to head in the same direction at the same time. This has created the current situation, defusing the argument which demands the index drops just because it's so high.

In fact, if the banking sector opts to become involved in this surge of optimism without other sectors experiencing reversal, the DOW could continue considerably higher, forcing us to examine our conscience around the 23,500 level!

For now, about the sanest thing we can consider is suggest points where a short is liable to become viable.

Visually, anything now below 22990 should indicate the immediate uptrend has failed, perhaps signalling a bonk coming against the prior uptrend at 22880 points.

If 22880 were to break, an attempt at 22,275 makes sense.

And if 22,275 breaks, things get quite serious as 21,000 awaits.

That's about it. We're left to consider common sense currently as mapping every single component of the DOW JONES revealed nothing other than a continued bias upward. For now!

Published 17/10/2017 

MERLIN ENTERTAINMENTS (LSE:MERL) If the UK Government are looking for folk to handle Brexit negotiations, the nice people who manage share price movements must surely figure high in their list of candidates. If we review the sleight of hand enacted by the market against investors with MERLIN' share price, it was brilliant.

Seriously, it creates the scenario where those folk could convince Mercedes to build a factory in the UK AND pay people to take their cars on the basis of creating long term goodwill for the company. In addition, France would be paying the UK to take their wine and Spain offering free holidays in jail, alongside their political prisoners.

As always, when irritated about what we think unethical market behaviour, we include a small inset on our chart.

MERLIN's share price enacted a bit of a snow job on traders, using two differing feints to lure investors.

Firstly on October 5th the share price broke the obvious downtrend since June 2017. For many people this is sufficient reason to become involved in a company.

Secondly, the one which gets us angry was the fake Higher High achieved on 10th October. It was only 468.2p, just above the prior high of 467p and usually sufficient to provoke a raised eyebrow as something was clearly about to happen. This sort of move generally would cause us to write;

 "Above 468.2p and we'd hope for growth coming to 494p..." which unfortunately will make folk risk getting involved beforehand.

Instead, what happened tends leave a bad taste, along with a suspicion the trend break and Higher High were deliberate moves to instil confidence, prior to sending a few investors money on a protracted holiday.

However, in this particular instance, we'd already be prone to questioning price movements. A question mark decorates something which happened back in 2016. This particular plunge is present on most chart platforms and it's something we've learned to question every time it's present. We're not sure whether it's early warning of coming trouble or not. But too often, a share which exhibits such stupid irrational intraday drops will eventually follow through with a severe plunge.

The situation now with Merlin's drooping wand is of weakness below 355p pointing at 313p with some bounce potentials. In the event 313p breaks, we're looking at 236 as a point where it almost must bounce.

Ultimate bottom, the point we cannot calculate below, is at 135p.

If Merlin plans a magic trick, above 448 will convince us we've misread the situation.

Published 16/10/2017 

ANGLO ASIAN MINING (LSE:AAZ) We commented recently about the possibility of some frothy times ahead for some AIM shares, given the usually unforgiving marketplace has apparently entered a further growth cycle. In fact, we almost believe the usually invisible Santa Rally may already be under way.

Anglo Asian Mining appears poised to take advantage of the positive outlook the AIM is exhibiting.

It closed the 16th October at 34.75p, this being marginally above the downtrend which dates back to August 2005. At time of writing, this trendline lurks are 34.033p and given both intraday behaviour and closing price, we're inclined toward some optimism. Near term, it seems possible movement above 36.5p should continue toward 38.5p which is quite significant. In the event of the share trading above 38.5p, a considerable jump toward 52p makes a lot of sense.

If being cautious, if we regard what occurred in 2013 as being important (price movements painted an artificial glass ceiling), it now seems closure above 35.5p will be a really big deal, opening the door in favour of 52p initially with secondary, if bettered, at a very possible 64p.

Should trouble be planned, the share price currently requires break 20p (RED) to suggest running for cover. Given the point at which it closed the 16th, this seems unlikely unless the company are planning issue some really grotty news!

Published 15/10/2017 

FTSE THIS WEEK & THE DAX (FTSE:UKX & DBI:DAX) It's probably one of these uncomfortable subjects but it's become increasingly difficult to ignore what's happening in Germany. The smart money has spent October frantically shorting a market which has refused to drop while discounting the salient detail Germany has been getting high.

Literally, from the 1st October, the DAX moved into Higher High than every other High territory and thus far, it has refused to come down. In fact, if we're to be realistic, the market is now expected to reach for 13407 points. Longer term, our secondary comes in at 14029 points where some serious hesitation is almost mandatory. Such has been the pace of acceleration the index need only below 12950 to drop out the immediate uptrend, so there's the absolute tightest stop level point.

We don't for a minute believe the immediate uptrend will hold. Surely some politician will be planning saying something stupid in an attempt to justify their incompetence.

THE FTSE THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX) Some of the financial commentators make quite a thing about the FTSE closing one day last week at a new all time high. We've been fairly restrained with the party poppers though as, while closing prices are critical to our outlook, equally critical is that point in time where intraday traffic also betters any previous levels. In the case of the FTSE, achieving 7565 was very nice BUT still quite a distance below the all time high of 7598 points.

So, forgive our lack of frothy exuberance.

That said, we're actually fairly optimistic for the near future due to normal rules telling us the market should achieve 7676 points on the current cycle, perhaps even 7725 points. To spoil the party, the index needs slither below 7400 points just to scupper the immediate uptrend.

In keeping with our habit of measuring events to try and establish a trend, apparently if the FTSE weakens below 7500 is should drop to 7474 points. The danger comes if 7474 breaks as it's the first sign of weakness, allowing a path to 7420 to make itself known. If the movement triggers, the tightest stop feels like 7550 points.

In summary, it's not looking too wintery for either the FTSE nor the DAX currently. While intraday moves are proving lacklustre, there must surely come a point where the markets notice the strength of their respective index' and respond accordingly. After all, it usually works that way with shares!

Published 12/10/2017 

SIRIUS MINERALS & FTSE FOR FRIDAY (LSE:SXX & FTSE:UKX) With some shares, the temptation to open the drawer in the coffee table and extract all the coloured pens (hidden between grandchild visits) can prove difficult to resist. Sirius Minerals - aka the flatline share - is a case in point as it's doing nothing interesting. Presumably some news is awaited?

The reason for the crayons is quite easy to explain.

Firstly, the market is quite boring currently with many shares just mucking around.

Secondly, we need to figure out if a share price is about to collide with a trend-line and suffer some forced movement.

With Sirius, the major downtrend (Dark Blue, Dashed line) is at 28.253p currently. If the price somehow betters this line, it scuppers any arguments favouring 21.5p providing a bottom on the current movement cycle. But to make things more enjoyable, there's the downtrend since June 2017. It's currently at 25.987p and we're fairly sure the price need only better this level to indicate some considerable change in mood.

The tea leaves indicate moves near term above 26p should provoke an initial 28p, challenging the Dark Blue Dashed trend. At this point, our logic demands the share price actually close a session above 27p and achieve our favourite "Higher High" criteria. In the case of Sirius, it's easy to imagine dance steps during October provoking further growth toward 33p which visually, appears perfectly viable.

Given the share price is currently loitering with intent at 25.79p, it certainly does not require much work to kick itself into life.

To finish with our customary note of caution, below 24.5p would again give concern as it suggests a visit to 21.5p and hopefully a bounce. We'd be extremely concerned should the Dashed Red line be broken, currently 20p. It allows weakness to 9p to enter the picture.

In summary, there are quite a few indicators hinting this wants to move soon, despite the last few months lethargy. Visually, we'd not permit excitement for the future to enter the frame unless the share price now closes above 36p. In such a case, a cycle to 53p commences.

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) We've quite a lot of optimism for the marketplace currently, thoughts which we intend covering when our outlook for next week is published. The brief version is, assuming Friday doesn't spoil things, the underlying market trend is upward and short positions should probably fail, given the index is officially achieving higher highs.

To break the immediate uptrend, the FTSE requires break below 7400 currently. Unfortunately, this obviously provides a hysterically silly stop position if taking a long position.

Near term, above 7567 and we expect growth toward 7584 points initially. Secondary, if bettered, comes in at a very probable 7608 points.

If searching for a short position, there's a tentative scenario where weakness below 7490 is supposed to bring 7474 points initially. If 7474 breaks, there's a chance the upward pressure is easing and travel down to 7444 will make sense.

Of course, we can use the chart picture below to resort to "accepted" terminology as it's clear the index has broken above a prior downtrend with the result a bunch of folk will be waiting it "back-testing-the-trend". Generally if this sort of nonsense is going to occur, it will happen once any upward surge achieves (and betters) a target. In the case of the FTSE,  we'll start looking for short possibilities once 7608 achieved.

Published 11/10/2017 

FAROE PETROLEUM (LSE:FPM) Sometimes price manipulation can be useful. We've had a bunch of emails regarding this share and it's not difficult to understand the interest. Basically, the share price is approaching a downtrend and it's not beyond the bounds of possibility it's due some sort of movement. It also provides an excuse to lecture on trend behaviour as we've circled a clue.

There's a pretty valid argument which favours a new trend commencing every time the market steps in and manipulates a price by forcing it in a particular direction when the share opens for trading. This nonsense creates a GAP in the movement table, drives our software nuts due to the gap in logical progression, and gives pause for thought as we've generally a few days hiatus until we can figure out the market intent.

In the case of FAROE, a 9% GAP at the open provided a pretty solid clue the sods intended price reduction, not entirely a surprise given the slump taking place in the price of Crude during that period.

Currently, the downtrend since the start of 2011 is at roughly 103.231p. But the downtrend since 2014, if viable, is currently 107.5p. And of course, the share price is currently 100p, within a sniff of a valid triggering movement and we'd guess this explains the level of interest.

If we take a look at recent dance steps, it appears movement now above 103.25 should prove capable of driving the price to 108p, a fairly useless step in the right direction. But critically, such a target level should give the price an excuse to close above at least one of our trigger levels. We suspect the important trend shall prove to be the one since 2011 and thus, closure above 103.25 should prove critical in allowing us to speculate on a secondary target at around 130p.

In the event of this price level being achieved, our calculations get a bit woolly thanks to the circled gap. Conventional wisdom will assume a coming attempt to cover the gap, the computer suggests closure above 130p should expect a future 181p.

So, it has got potentials.

Visually, any attempt to stuff the price requires it forced below 80p (RED)  as the drop potential of 60p utterly spoils current optimism.

Published 10/10/2017 

HURRICANE ENERGY (LSE:HUR) With all the recent publicity given toward hurricanes, it seems strange Hurricane Energy failed to capitalise on how popular their naming inspiration is! While share price movements since our last analysis have proven somewhat lacklustre (link here) the share price has achieved and bettered our initial growth target of 33p while the drop cycle appeared determined not to break 26p. Perhaps some strength is actually evident.

It's now time to make another attempt at explaining how we view price movements.

Firstly, we'd proposed criteria for a drop to 25p. In reality, the share "only" dropped to 26.25p before bouncing. Strength?

Second, we've proposed criteria for a lift to 33p initially with secondary, if bettered, of 36.75p. It managed close at 33.25p. Strength?

Third, we've given a small inset on the chart highlighting the last few weeks. The price seems afraid to cross a line. Confusion?

There's a particularly uncomfortable facet with Hurricane which we really should not ignore. We'd be horrified if the share now actually closed a session below 25p as this risks a phase toward 10p with ultimate bottom 1.75p. It looks unlikely and we'd be delighted if an excuse were now found to allow the price to CLOSE above BLUE as it substantially, very substantially, reduces the drop calculation logic.

However, quite often when a share price is snake charmed by a trend, it indicates some significant news is due and results in the situation where movement above the trend is liable to provoke rather sharp upward travel. In the case of Hurricane, it means (to us, anyway) intraday traffic bettering 33p is very liable to approach 36.75 initially but to be honest, it should not prove difficult to attain our 42p as moves perceived as "breakout" will often prove flamboyant. Fingers crossed time but even near term intraday traffic above just 32p should give early warning something is coming. Ideally, it will not be an opening minute spike as the something coming risks being a train in the other direction!

Published 09/10/2017 

88 ENERGY (LSE:88E) Presumably this lot issued some grotty news. Last time we commented, (link here), we gave 3.45 & 3,85p as upward targets, both of which were achieved. Then it fell off a cliff! Thankfully, there's something a bit puzzling about the drop as we would have expected the share to reach 0.37p and bounce. Instead, it appears the market is making an effort to ensure it does not fail below 0.825p, so perhaps some hope remains.

The current situation is fairly interesting as there's an immediate trendline sitting at 1.4p currently (BLUE) and the share only requires better this to suggest it has very probably bottomed. In such an instance, we're looking for near term oomph toward 1.625p initially which, to be honest, is fairly rubbish. However, in the event of it trading above 1.625p, we're a touch more optimistic as 2.35p is our secondary calculation.

As this point, it becomes crucial the share price actually manages to close above 2.2p as we can cough politely and suggest crossing fingers for a decent flow of news from the company which should prove capable of pushing a somewhat distant sounding 3.2p!

Finally, we've opted to show a discrete dashed Light Blue downtrend which dates back to 2012. Currently this is sitting at 2p and almost certain to provide some sort of interruption in a rising phase. This trend line, coupled with the prior highs, is creating a situation in the 2 - 2.2p range, one almost certain to end up creating some sort of future glass ceiling. Despite the fact we've mentioned 3.2p in the future! Sometimes it's worth paying attention to common sense. Currently trading around the 9p level, we suspect this shall prove worth keeping an eye on fairly soon.

Published 08/10/2017 

FTSE FOR THE WEEK (FTSE:UKX) Despite last week ending with a pretty rubbish Friday, a fair amount of optimism appears probable for the week ahead given the point the index closed. The funny thing, for the first 1/2 this year, there was a near 80% chance of Mondays being a down day on the FTSE. More recently, the opposite has been true and better still, it appears misery will prove difficult to invoke. (cue: any politician)

In the coming week, it appears we should view movement now above 7530 as provoking some growth toward 7625 points initially, perhaps even 7675 points. From the level the first week of October closed, realistically this growth cycle is already enabled and the tightest drop should be around 7455 points.

However, if we resort to that old mumbo jumbo trick of just drawing a straight line, 7350 remains the sensible point we'd require witness the market below before losing confidence in coming growth to new ALL TIME HIGHS for the FTSE

So, what happens if 7350 somehow breaks and we lose all confidence for October?

Initially, weakness toward 7203 makes a lot of sense. Secondary is now at 6990 points. The better news is this forms one of these drop potentials where a seriously tight stop is advised, perhaps around 7375 points. The underlying upward force currently is impressive and only below the 7200 level could we suggest the force is not strong with this one.

FRIDAY WAS A REALLY RATHER BORING DAY!

Published 05/10/2017 

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) Our "strong and stable" leader' repeated attempts to weaken Sterling appear to be finally bearing fruit, though it did take multiple speeches to undermine the BoE's outlook. Thankfully, she has yet to turn her magic against the FTSE and it remains looking like it wishes to go up. For a while, Sterling was looking stronger than the Euro (GBPEUR) but we now suspect it intends bounce around 1.1111 anytime soon.

As for the FTSE, the index has experienced a pretty useful start to the month, permitting untold optimism for the future. The small spanner in the works appears to be the immediate BLUE downtrend since June and visually the FTSE closed against the BLUE line. Thankfully, the visual impression is a few points away from being correct. The downtrend is at 7512 points, the market closed the session at the day high of 7508 points. Perhaps there is sufficient wiggle room not to shout about an immediate recoil being due.

Near term,  above 7512 points enters a cycle toward 7561 points initially, perhaps even 7585 if bettered. Unfortunately, for those fond of drawing lines, the closest stop appears to be 7350 points which is a bit rotten. If we through some guesswork at the problem, perhaps 7455 will suffice as a stop level.

What happens if 7350 breaks?

In such an instance, we are looking for near term weakness toward 7289 initially. Secondary comes along at 7215 points. If triggered, the tightest stop looks like 7380 points.

Published 04/10/2017 

BAE SYSTEMS (LSE:BA.) We were going to cover the US Firearm industry, specifically focussing on ammunition sales on the basis a gun is sold just once. But the fuel it requires is an ongoing industry. Adopting the UK moral high ground fell apart when realising, as a guitarist, owning 5 of the instruments is very far from unusual. Chums with motorcycles also tend buy different machines for different jobs. Who are we to judge others? (except trainspotters...) So instead, a look at a local warmonger makes sense!

Before trotting out quite a positive outlook for BAE, we did spend quite a lot of time examining the US ammunition market as it's actually fairly depressed. And even more time compiling a smarmy article with charts you will never see. What surprised was the reason for the slump in share prices as Trump is apparently the bad guy. During Obama's reign, firearms enthusiasts lived in fear of regulation and, similar to UK motorists when faced with a threat of fuel shortages, stockpiled. The thinking, apparently, was this would protect them as any new law could not be retrospective.

When Mr Trump was elected, a change in mood ensued with record profits amongst ammo makers are expected to decline and thus, share prices relaxed substantially.

Our outlook against BAE actually places the share in a region where growth to a longer term 793 looks valid, perhaps even a longer term 933p. There are a few criteria requiring met before the next upward phase triggers but, to spoil the party, the share requires slink below 358p - a pretty rubbish stop position.

Despite the underlying trend being pretty solidly upward, the share need only slip below 590p anytime soon to enter a phase toward 555p initially. Secondary, if such a point breaks, is at 480p, effectively matching the lows of 2016 and bonking against the uptrend since 2011.

However, we're more interested in the BLUE line, currently at 640p as closure above such a point ticks our first box for a coming phase to 793p. The second box is a bit more obvious, the share bettering the prior highs if 680p. The funny thing with BAE comes from its historical approach to these BLUE downtrends as, once they're bettered the share generally will complete a proper movement cycle to our initial big picture target - in this case 793p. As a result, should 793 make a guest appearance in the future, some volatility can again be expected until it feels ready to grow further.

In summary, it's already presenting a quite nice long term potential and we'd tend view relaxation as opportunity rather than otherwise. Unless it breaks the uptrend since 2003, of course.

Published 03/10/2017 

GULF KEYSTONE (LSE:GKP) Our lack of trust for this share is well documented but recent price movements raise some questions. We're in the somewhat silly position of speculating something might happen, 'cos something really bad hasn't happened (yet). And the computer says...

This is almost embarrassing as our software suggests should GKP's mid-price appear at 92.75p, it's apparently presenting an entry point to catch some sort of bounce. Making the prospect even more attractive is a hint of a stop loss level being at 89.5p due to the issue of below entering a pretty dangerous drop cycle. There are even indications the share price must experience some sort of movement within the next couple of sessions.

We asked the computer how high the price would bounce. Typically, it said nothing. Probably due to the speakers being off and the microphone disconnected. So instead, we applied common sense and drew a few lines.

Joking aside, the level of any bounce from a calculated bottom is generally a complete sod to extrapolate but we find drawing obvious trend lines will give levels where traders are liable to bail a trade and thus, give simple target prices. If, of course, the bottom ambition does invoke a bounce.

For GKP, the implication is the potential of movement to 103.5 currently, a point where near term traders armed with a solid BLUE pen are very liable to take profit and thus, generate selling pressure to stifle a rise. The secondary - for traders armed with a dashed blue trend pen - if such a point bettered, comes in at 126p currently. And the big daddy is shown discretely at 128p where, if GKP CLOSE above such a point, buy some and go away for a while as good stuff looks hard to restrain!

We'd be remiss if we didn't pour some misery on this outburst of optimism. We've two flies competing for ointment currently.

1.    Realistically we've issues below 89.5p as the price risks entering a cycle to 74p as best guess. Secondary, should such break, is 52p.

2.    During this year, we've learned to treat gaps with impunity as the concept of "filling a gap" appears absent from the 2017 marketplace. The detail of GKP presenting a manipulation gap from 93.25p means we should not expect a bounce... But it's GKP, so might!

Published 02/10/2017 

THE AIM MARKET & ASIAMET RES. (FTSE:AXX & LSE:ARS) With so much to be miserable about, the AIM market appears on the verge of yet another upward surge. Currently the index is trading around 1009.6 points, needing only better 1016 points to signal the potential of 'some happy times' for 'some' promising AIM components.

Above 1016 and we're looking for a growth phase to 1135 points initially with secondary, if bettered, at a longer term 1245 points. As this effectively proposes a near 25% upward cycle, surely this largesse will be spread amongst some companies which desperately require an injection of oomph?

We always bang on about the importance of Higher Highs and the AIM is certainly achieving this from a Big Picture viewpoint. This year, it bettered the highs of 2011 and maintained the rise and now, we're awaiting the near term highs of 1016 exceeded to once again experience optimism. As a result, we're going to look at some AIM's this week which show some decent potentials.

ASIAMET RES. (LSE:ARS) ASIAMET has been proving quite hesitant at making any form of upward break, despite the share price sleepwalking through its long term downtrend since 2007. Worse, recent dance steps with the share price tend suggest the possibility of some near term weakness appearing and below 4.7p calculates a relaxation cycle commencing toward 3.9p or so.

Visually, this seems not a disaster.

One of the market terms we utterly hate is "back-testing the trend" as there's absolutely no reason for it to happen from a software perspective. But during 2017, through gritted teeth, we've been forced to admit that yes, THIS YEAR it is happening. If this is indeed the case with ASIAMET, should the price manage slide downhill toward 3.9p it suggests itself presenting a valid entry point as the future potentials don't stink.

With closure above 5.5p - or intraday trades above 5.65p - we'll regard the share as heading upward to an initial 8p next which suggests a pretty reasonable rise. Secondary, rather surprisingly, comes in at 16p but we'd strongly take that with a pinch of salt until the price actually closes above 8p.

On the flip side, below 3.25 would scare us, suggesting a return to the 1p level at best.

Published 01/10/2017 

FTSE FOR THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX) There's a fairly large question mark over SPAIN as, regardless the referendum result, the countries truly shocking antics appears to have thrown a spanner in the works of Europe. As a result, we tend expect some jitters against European indices but wonder whether Brexit UK will escape a doze of collywobbles.

The FTSE certainly performed as expected at the end of September and now, near term moves bettering 7384 look capable of provoking 7441 points. This appears to be quite a big deal now as trades above 7441 enter a cycle toward 7630 points which, of course, would establish a new all time high for the FTSE .

As always with the market, there's a BLUE line and currently it's lurking at 7520, almost certain to interrupt in any rise cycle.

The immediate FTSE uptrend is sitting at 7300 points. In the event of weakness below this point anytime soon, we're looking for weakness toward 7230 initially, matching the uptrend since December 2016. If this particular RED line is broken, slippage to 7100 looks probable, perhaps even 7025 as a bottom where we'd tend hope for a bounce.

For the moment, Spain permitting, it appears the FTSE still wants growth.

Published 28/09/2017 

FRIDAY FTSE, RYANAIR & BOOHOO (LSE:RYA & LSE:BOO) While no-one has actually asked about Boohoo nor Ryanair, we've been wanting to comment. If only due to utter dislike of Ryanair as a people carrier (due to travel experience) and Boohoo as having a silly name!  There's also a fascination about Ryanair' seeming attempts to drive their own share price down with ongoing PR incompetence!

RYANAIR (LSE:RYA) All kidding aside, if someone were to write a manual on "how not to do it", surely Ryanair will make valuable contributions as it certainly feels like the market is starting lose some fascination with their share price. As the chart shows, the share has experienced incredible ascent sine 2011, increasing nearly 7 fold. This has created a fairly solid looking uptrend, currently at 9.6. The near uptrend, represented by a dashed RED line on the chart, is currently around 13.45.

If Ryanair continue their PR blitz, the situation now appears to be weakness below 15.85 driving the price down to 15.02 next. While some sort of bounce at this level is expected, if 15.02 breaks we'd expect a real bounce in the future at 13.85. Such a target level also implies a collision with the near uptrend, along with a bounce simply due to hitting the level of prior lows. In price movement terms, 13.85 therefore represents a "perfect storm" if looking for an entry point to catch some sort of rebound.

Alas, we'd be guessing to a degree if speculating on where such a bounce would go but experience hints the 16 level will make a lot of sense.

Finally, if Ryanair succeed beyond their wildest dreams and force the price below 13.85, we'd be inclined to panic as an attempt at the solid RED uptrend looks extremely probable sometime in the future!

BOOHOO (LSE:BOO)   We should really have commented on this at the initial drop as it became obvious - to us - the price intended 185 as an initial target. Secondary, when such a level breaks, is a longer term 167p. Currently the share price requires better 219p just to regain the prior uptrend as this should produce an initial 228p, along with turning our drop predictions to mush.

However, the visuals are not encouraging as the market now has gapped the share below the prior uptrend and generally this indicates a cunning plan is in place.

In summary, our suspicion is this shall end up bouncing from 168 to eventually produce a new trend as we'd tend expect anything near term from 185p to bonk against the RED line prior to withering again.

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX)  Our FTSE Friday thing remains, by some margin, the best read analysis of the week. As can be assumed, this places rather a lot of pressure due to an expectation we'll get "it" right (again). We've some hopes the market is about to enter an uptrend, simply due to the large number of shares which appear to be regaining their prior uptrend despite painting strong pictures of gloom during September.

What surprises us this year is September usually finishes pretty poorly with October abruptly giving strong upward hope for the end of the year. In fact, the rubbish written about "Santa Rally" possibilities tends ignore any rally usually commences at the start of the final quarter.

However, as mentioned it feels probable we're about to experience a decent Friday as should the FTSE (the index during trading hours) now better 7328 points, it should experience near term growth to an initial 7349 points. If triggered, stop can be at a reasonable 7288 points. Better still, our secondary upward target is placed at 7419 points.

Given the FTSE closed Thursday at 7319 points and most of September has been pretty boring, we're less than confident at seeing a 100 point rise in a single day!

What happens if 7288 breaks?

In honesty, panic from our perspective as the index would once again enter a cycle down to 7025 points. Near term, if below 7288 then 7250 appears the initial target with secondary, if broken, at 7222 points.

If triggered, stop can be at 7320 points but we'd warn against taking any drop seriously if it occurs during the opening seconds of the trading day. Too often this is a trap.

Prior Months:

September 2017

August 2017

July 2017

June2017    All the usual culprits!

May2017

April 2017 BMR FLYBE TESLA Griifin Unilever 88 Energy United Airlines Sirius Ferrari Hays YouGov Lloyds Barclays RBS

March 2017 Aberdeen Ass Laura Ashley ARGOS A G BARR French Connection BHP AFC Aberdeen Asset Jubilee LLOYDS RBS BARC Debenhams GreatPortland Just Eat Sirius

February 2017 Ferrari Sound Proton Power SIRIUS_SXX Esure A)O World CARD Factory Gulf Keystone BMR RENTokill BARCLAYS LLOYDS RBS

January 2017 SIRIUS Ferrari Next Premier Vet GBPEUR LLOYDS SKY Capita FastJet Talk Talk British Telecom SKY Barclays RBS

December16 DOW JONES AO WORLD Ebay SIRIUS BMR Sirius Ferrari Next GBPEUR LLOYDS DIAGEO

November16 Includes FlyBe FastJet Johnston Press SKY Ferrari Rockhopper Lloyds Barclays RBS Sirius BMR Vodafone AMUR Minerals Chesnara Provexis

October16 Includes FTSE GBPEUR RBS Barclays The Dow Jones Ferrari Lloyds GOLD Strategic Minerals BMR PLUS500 DOW AGAIN Gulf Keystone Hurricane Countrywide Vodafone Zoldav

Sept16: Includes Range Resources Highland Natural Resources Cloudtag Tern Kodal UK Oil & Gas Gulf Keystone Hurricane Sirius Barclays San Leon Solo Chariot Sepura 88 Energy Gulf Keystone BMR Forbidden Tech HNR Sound Deutsche Bank Ferrari Twitter

August16 - includes Firstgroup Cobham Drax Edinburgh JimmyChoo Barclays Lloyds WilliamHill OilSector ProtonPower RBS DirectLine BMR JustEat BancaMonteDeiPaschidiSiena SiriusMinerals DixonsCarphone FERRARI Google SanLeon  WMIH  GulfKeystone