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Published 28/09/2017 

FRIDAY FTSE, RYANAIR & BOOHOO (LSE:RYA & LSE:BOO) While no-one has actually asked about Boohoo nor Ryanair, we've been wanting to comment. If only due to utter dislike of Ryanair as a people carrier (due to travel experience) and Boohoo as having a silly name!  There's also a fascination about Ryanair' seeming attempts to drive their own share price down with ongoing PR incompetence!

RYANAIR (LSE:RYA) All kidding aside, if someone were to write a manual on "how not to do it", surely Ryanair will make valuable contributions as it certainly feels like the market is starting lose some fascination with their share price. As the chart shows, the share has experienced incredible ascent sine 2011, increasing nearly 7 fold. This has created a fairly solid looking uptrend, currently at 9.6. The near uptrend, represented by a dashed RED line on the chart, is currently around 13.45.

If Ryanair continue their PR blitz, the situation now appears to be weakness below 15.85 driving the price down to 15.02 next. While some sort of bounce at this level is expected, if 15.02 breaks we'd expect a real bounce in the future at 13.85. Such a target level also implies a collision with the near uptrend, along with a bounce simply due to hitting the level of prior lows. In price movement terms, 13.85 therefore represents a "perfect storm" if looking for an entry point to catch some sort of rebound.

Alas, we'd be guessing to a degree if speculating on where such a bounce would go but experience hints the 16 level will make a lot of sense.

Finally, if Ryanair succeed beyond their wildest dreams and force the price below 13.85, we'd be inclined to panic as an attempt at the solid RED uptrend looks extremely probable sometime in the future!

BOOHOO (LSE:BOO)   We should really have commented on this at the initial drop as it became obvious - to us - the price intended 185 as an initial target. Secondary, when such a level breaks, is a longer term 167p. Currently the share price requires better 219p just to regain the prior uptrend as this should produce an initial 228p, along with turning our drop predictions to mush.

However, the visuals are not encouraging as the market now has gapped the share below the prior uptrend and generally this indicates a cunning plan is in place.

In summary, our suspicion is this shall end up bouncing from 168 to eventually produce a new trend as we'd tend expect anything near term from 185p to bonk against the RED line prior to withering again.

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX)  Our FTSE Friday thing remains, by some margin, the best read analysis of the week. As can be assumed, this places rather a lot of pressure due to an expectation we'll get "it" right (again). We've some hopes the market is about to enter an uptrend, simply due to the large number of shares which appear to be regaining their prior uptrend despite painting strong pictures of gloom during September.

What surprises us this year is September usually finishes pretty poorly with October abruptly giving strong upward hope for the end of the year. In fact, the rubbish written about "Santa Rally" possibilities tends ignore any rally usually commences at the start of the final quarter.

However, as mentioned it feels probable we're about to experience a decent Friday as should the FTSE (the index during trading hours) now better 7328 points, it should experience near term growth to an initial 7349 points. If triggered, stop can be at a reasonable 7288 points. Better still, our secondary upward target is placed at 7419 points.

Given the FTSE closed Thursday at 7319 points and most of September has been pretty boring, we're less than confident at seeing a 100 point rise in a single day!

What happens if 7288 breaks?

In honesty, panic from our perspective as the index would once again enter a cycle down to 7025 points. Near term, if below 7288 then 7250 appears the initial target with secondary, if broken, at 7222 points.

If triggered, stop can be at 7320 points but we'd warn against taking any drop seriously if it occurs during the opening seconds of the trading day. Too often this is a trap.

Published 27/09/2017 

PETRA Diamonds, The Card Factory, and Cruises for under 10 pounds. (LSE:PTA, LSE:CARD) Our location on Scotlands West Coast attracts silly mega-prices for cruising but Mrs T&T managed achieve 90 minutes afloat for just 9 quid, complete with her car. The ferry journey to the mainland usually is 20 minutes but a combination of heated seats, bluetooth, Robbie Williams at full volume ensured she made the crossing multiple times while awaiting the RAC. Her flat battery just sniffed at the emergency jump leads on the ferry!

The really funny thing hadn't yet happened. She was planning to go shopping before a hospital appointment. The shopping forgotten, she turned up at wrong hospital in the wrong town. But bang on time. She's still cursing Royalty for their insistence hospitals be named after them... You can apparently have too many Queens!

Greeting card shops don't do "Have a Happy Breakdown" but it does give an excuse to cover the Card Factory again. And Petra Diamonds too, just 'cos we were asked.

CARD FACTORY firstly has experienced quite a nasty tumble for some reason. Quite unsmilingly, we'd proposed a target of 361 last time this was covered and the share being spiked to 359 the day prior to savage reversal was not visually fair. Or probably ethical.

We're not impressed with the savage reversal shown as below 277 looks like reaching 250 and doubtless some sort of bounce. The problem comes should the price trade below 250p due to 213 calculating as bottom. This unfortunately breaks the uptrend since the listing commenced in its current form in 2014, placing the share price in a region where our ultimate bottom of 150p appears viable.

It needs a miracle above 345 to regain the prior trend. We're not hopeful.

PETRA DIAMONDS (LSE:PDL)  This has more running downtrends than you can shake a stick at and importantly, one thing they had in common was ultimate bottom was lurking at 25p. However, something odd happened this week as the uptrend since 2009 was at roughly 61.443p. Of slight interest was a surprising bounce despite the share breaking below 61.4p twice. The situation now is of weakness below 59.25 driving the price to 25p and hopefully a solid rebound.

Near term however, it appears some effort is being employed to respect the integrity of the long term uptrend. As a result, above 71.25 near term should generate a fairly useless 75p. Secondary, if bettered, comes in at 85p which challenges the immediate downtrend. Only if above 85p dare we express hope as 106p enters the picture. Surprisingly, this would suggest a challenge of the medium downtrend later this year!

In summary, this is obviously showing signs of a bounce, along with presenting a fairly tight stop level at 59.25 though obviously the spread shall be important.

Published 26/09/2017 

FRONTERA RES. & GBPEUR (LSE:FRR & FX:GBPEUR) Due to the volume of emails, we broke with tradition last week and provided an analysis against Frontera, an AIM share trading below 1p. (article link here) Due to the risk of accidentally 'enhancing expectations' we generally avoid such shares will similar fervour shown by politicians avoiding an honest answer!

When we produced our report, Frontera was trading at 0.2775p. In the last week, it reached the dizzy height of 0.78. Attaining our 3rd target level now looks improbable on the immediate movement cycle. We're fairly pleased at movements as they proved we'd been monitoring the correct trend. (always a relief)

As the chart below shows, our target levels did as they're supposed to, giving a theoretical possibility of selling at each level, then buying in on a slight dip. In reality, market spreads probably made such an ambition impossible.

It appears something has now throttled the rise and we tend expect the worst. Hopefully this should be a reversal to 0.35 and a bonk against the ruling BLUE downtrend. This shall prove critical, giving hope for the future and providing the basis for a longer term rise, presumably based on positive news flow from the company rather than positive speculation on internet chat rooms. If the share price were to CLOSE below BLUE, recent moves become yet another example of an AIM "Pump & Dump".

For us, moves did prove fascinating, once again indicating market software often finds it impossible to ignore triggering events. In the case of some shares, price moves can be rather swift.  Unfortunately, in each direction!

We'll return to this share but only if the price adheres to our prior requirement - CLOSURE above 0.8p - as it'll present some strong long term possibilities. For now though, it remains trading in a region where Big Picture calculations provide an ultimate drop target prefaced with a minus sign. At time of writing, the share is trading at 0.615.

Our usual method of gauging strength is to calculate a "what if" scenario. In the case of FRR, this requirement is;

"What if the price betters 0.67p?"

If so, we're looking for an initial useless 0.74p but, if this level is bettered, there's a strong chance the price has found a bottom and some further growth is coming. Who knows, it may even achieve closure above 0.8 and return to the realms of sanity.

GBPEUR (FX:GBPEUR) From our perspective, there's been a fairly major transformation in this relationship. Recently we'd speculated this pairing should head to 1.068 but the pairing actually bounced at 1.074, a country mile away from target in Forex terms. But from our perspective, it hinted at some strength due to part of our projection method relying on whether a target is achieved or missed, along with the percentage variance.

The situation with GBPEUR now is of movement bettering 1.145 starting a cycle toward 1.163 next with secondary, if bettered, at 1.212p. The pairing IS NO LONGER trading in a region where parity makes sense, so perhaps the currency markets like what the UK is doing. Or alternately, dislike what Europe is doing...

There's a key element about our secondary target. While visually 1.212 effectively matches the prior glass ceiling at 1.200, we're not immune from noting achieving this level will imply a break above the glass ceiling. About the only safe alternate is of any reversal now breaking below 1.087 justifying panic as parity once again rears its head.

Published 25/09/2017 

BARCLAYS AND GBPUSD (LSE:BARC FX:GBPUSD) It's that time of the month, when we discuss the disgusting and take a look at the Pound v The US Dollar. A headline caught our eye, mentioning Mitsubishi Bank expected GBPUSD to hit 1.40, causing our hackles to rise. This sort of thing strays into our territory, provoking a rush to immediately dismiss their nonsense AND explain why.

Except they almost have a point for a change. Aside from a big fat massive "However!" which they failed to mention.

If we adhere to our law of "Higher Highs", a short position on GBPUSD is liable to go catastrophically wrong if they pairing is either trading above 1.3658 OR (important bit) closes a session above roughly 1.36122. In either case, the pairing will better the long term downtrend since July 2014 and also enter a phase where we'd anticipate coming growth toward 1.4105, slightly bettering Mitsubishi's proposal. Our longer term secondary target calculates at a less likely 1.4479.

For now though, the relationship is simply threatening the trend and most emphatically has NOT triggered a movement to 1.4100. In fact, when we map  GBPEUR with similar method, this pairing is also in a similar predicament. It almost hints the currency markets have not decided whether UK politicians are stupid or not, a really difficult question...

On the calamity side of life, the pair needs drip below 1.3148 to signal coming trouble as reversal to an initial 1.268 makes sense with secondary, if broken, a very likely 1.194. And if the secondary breaks, the relationship founders quite dangerously as while effective parity is the next calculation, we rather suspect a lower number is possible.

BARCLAYS BANK (LSE:BARC) share price rather oddly exhibits vaguely similar symptoms to the above currency pair. As in, it's stuffed but perhaps showing efforts to escape the plunge into the gutter.

We've attempted to make the chart below as confusing as possible, painting lots of lines in an effort to highlight something important. To be blunt, the ruling logic against this share dictates the price is currently heading to 165p, perhaps even a longer term 148p is such a level breaks. To trash this argument, the share price needs better 204p currently which, pausing for thought, does not represent a horrible stop level.

We're a bit twitchy about this due to recent price behaviour.

It appears the market is not entirely happy at the thought of Barclays once again immolating itself and we're looking for signs bottom is actually "in". The share price keeps threatening the immediate downtrend and now, the situation exists where it need only trade above 192.45 to tick the first box for a coming miracle. If opting to take the blind faith approach and going LONG, the tightest stop looks like 185p currently. And should the upward movement trigger, our first ambition calculates at 198.4p which, if bettered, ticks the second box to confirm bottom is probably in. Additionally, the share price enters a region where 208 becomes believable!

The fly in the ointment is the solid BLUE downtrend since February this year. Currently it's around 201.3p and liable to provide an excuse to throttle a rise.

And above 208p we'll need take another look at future potentials as visually there's something going on at this price level which again risks stifling the future. Plus, in a month or so, the 208 ambition also collides with the downtrend since 2007 just before it all hit the fan.

Published 24/09/2017 

THE FTSE THIS WEEK & A UFO (FTSE:UKX) Our outlook on Thursday evening was delayed slightly, due to one of our number wandering around in the dark trying to take a photograph of the Milky Way - the sky above his part of Scotland was unusually clear. Unsurprisingly, he failed to find an entire universe but did see something odd. A high altitude jet or perhaps a satellite suddenly turned right, literally executing a 90 degree turn with no apparent change in speed.

Needless to say, this occurred while awaiting the camera to process a prior snapshot.

A search of Google revealed quite a few folk commenting on this unexplained phenomena, spotted in various parts of the world over the years. Sometimes, it seems a moving star changes direction, usually blamed on a helicopter or more recently, a drone by "experts". We choose to label it "unidentified".

Our reason for bringing this up relates to similar "experts" who write about stock markets.

How often do we read nonsense like; "FTSE Recovers as Sterling Slips, due to XYZ fears". The plain unvarnished truth is of a journalist trying to find a convincing reason to explain the inexplicable. Amusingly, one newspaper attempted explain a FTSE movement on the UK Prime Ministers speech in Florence, the headline writer neatly ignoring the complaint being her speech didn't actually say anything. However...

The FTSE closed the week in relatively benign territory and movements now above 7337 should prove capable of growth in the coming days toward a fairly useless 7383 points. As the solid BLUE line implies, this hints of a challenge against the immediate downtrend during the week and ideally, should the market better this level around Thursday, substantial hope appears possible for a break upward toward 7475 points. Visually, this would return the index to the trading range prior to Nth Korea apparently throwing a scare. Perhaps more importantly, achieving 7475 also has the potential of a break in the dashed BLUE line which is needed to negate some grotty news.

Currently, the FTSE is trading in a region with a logical bottom of 7025 points, this being a point where we'd tend expect a bounce. Certainly, if this level appears, a quick long position with a blooming tight stop makes a lot of sense. The implication if the 7025 level breaks is of continued weakness toward 6805 points, maybe even 6630 points if reversal is driven by truly justified grotty-ness!

For now, it appears an attempt is being made to wrest the FTSE from the edge of a trench but if the market were now to find an excuse to trade below RED - currently 7212 points - we'd be quite justifiably alarmed. And we need not invent reasons for a drop either...

Published 21/09/2017 

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) This week started well, then stopped. In fact, it was rather like Ferrari' performance in last Sundays grand prix, though not quite as funny. We're a bit concerned, 'cos rather a few shares have triggered downward travel though, quite oddly, the clown sector - the retail banks - are showing signs they wish increase in price. Let's just say we don't entirely trust 'em.

As for the FTSE, it has rather failed to undo the damage inflicted on 14th September and visually appears to have moved down to what feels like a new trading range, floundering between the 7,300 level and, we suspect, somewhere around 7025 points. And yes, we know we sound like a stuck record, constantly repeating this bottom target but unless the FTSE currently manages wander above BLUE, currently 7393 points, there are strong arguments favouring 7025 as bottom. Aside from the important detail such a target level does not match anything in this years history. Visually, there's a firm hint the market shall look at the 7100 level and assume a bounce is justified. Numerically, about the best we can hope is 7160 provoking a bounce as, if below, the FTSE is stuffed until just above the 7000 level.

Who knows, maybe Mrs May will say something sensible... Like her resignation!

Near term, three days of effective flatlining make it difficult to project reasonable trades but below 7260 looks capable of a tragic 7247 points. If triggered, stop can be above 7284 points. The reason for such a wide stop comes from the secondary target as, should 7247 break, we're looking for 7227 points and hopefully some sort of recoil.

On the up side of life, we're not inclined to trust near term rises unless the FTSE (do remember, this is about the index, NOT after hours futures) betters 7309. In such an event, we're looking for some growth to 7363 points with secondary, if bettered, at 7435. Some or other, we doubt either target attainable in the same day as there's a strong chance any rise will fizzle by 7320 due to the index being seen in a downward phase.

Published 20/09/2017 

SKY & QINETIQ (LSE:SKY & LSE:QQ) Our last outpouring of misery about SKY postulated, once again, the probability of 919p making an appearance. It not only was finally achieved but unfortunately, the share managed drop signal, very briefly, below 919 before bouncing, literally all within a single minute, from 903p.

We tend hate when our logical targets are exceeded as generally it implies our secondary is liable to be visited once any near term messing around is completed. The situation now with this share is of weakness below 903 pointing at a probable bounce point of 872p.

In terms of danger, it gets seriously nasty should any reason be discovered to aim below 872p as we can calculate some really grotty drop levels. We've shown 668p on the chart but while any bounce is liable simply to recoil toward the solid red line, the big picture will be showing the share trading below a long term uptrend since 2008 and at risk of a solid hammering.

To get out of this mess, the share price requires some excuse to actually CLOSE a session above 980p.

QINETIQ (LSE:QQ.)  This is a share which generally moves with quite startling integrity. This tends make our miserable forecast of weakness below 219 provoking an initial 195p with secondary, if broken, at 150p as something we distrust.

The inset on the chart shows recent share CLOSING PRICE behaviour against the ruling BLUE downtrend. The price of QQ. need only close above BLUE to trash our drop calculations and it seems recent movements are tending take this BLUE line into consideration. To cut to the chase, if QinetiQ manage to close above 231p currently, we'd abandon our immediate drop thoughts and instead anticipate growth toward an initial 238p with secondary, if bettered, coming in at 253p

Perhaps this is worth keeping an eye on in the days ahead as perhaps an attempt to regain the long term RED uptrend is coming.

Published 19/09/2017

FRONTERA RES. (LSE:FRR) We've received rather a few emails regarding this lot and worse, noticed it's repeatedly one of the top chat topics in discussion groups on the internet. Our preference is to ignore sub 1p shares, due to price movements often appearing driven irrationally and also, we've a horror of being blamed ourselves as promoting any movement. Our 'thing' is to lay the groundwork where movement is liable to follow some sort of logic.

Rather neatly, in the case of FRR, the share price actually HAS conformed to our usual logic recently!

On the chart below, the BLUE line represents a trend which commenced following the shares last major opening second manipulation (circled) in early 2015. Unsurprisingly, share price shuffles on the 19th Sept managed to rather precisely bonk (again) on this trend line. It tends suggest rather firmly we dare not take a rise seriously until such time the share price actually CLOSES above BLUE, roughly 3.65p at present. Alternatively, if we attribute movement this week as conforming to "the rules", it appears anything near term bettering 0.39p should prove capable of challenging an initial 0.45p, visually matching March's highs and doubtless provoking a stutter in any rising cycle.

Of more interest shall be closure above 0.45 as we'd expect an initial 0.57 with secondary, if (when) bettered at 0.83p when we need again run the numbers.

Finally, this is not a share we cover from a day to day perspective, due to the unpleasant prospect which appeared at the start of 2016 when the share price moved into a region where our ultimate drop target calculated at minus 0.38p, obviously impossible. Generally when this sort of thing occurs, a share risks becoming a market plaything in the absence of any miracles. If we find ourselves re-running the numbers above 0.8p in the future, we shall cheerfully deem it a miracle.

Published 18/09/2017

SSE (LSE:SSE) Just as the internet stuffed Yellow Pages, we sometimes wonder if all this energy saving nonsense will stuff electricity company expectations? A visit to our local council website to report a street light failure resulted in an LED streetlight being fitted, substantially brighter than the grudging orange sodium glow and, if our exterior LED floodlights are anything to go by, substantially cheaper to run.

As these things do, our thought turned to one of the biggie companies and what their share price future looks like. In the case of SSE, it appears a dimmer switch risks being employed!

We've circled a little movement at the end of August as it risks being one of these 'early warning' signals for a coming problem. The share broke the long term uptrend since 2003 for a few sessions and while the price was forced back above RED, we have our doubts. Often these early warning things precede some grotty news making an appearance.

In the case of SSE, it's currently trading just above the 1400p level and need only leak below 1373 to enter a cycle toward an initial 1250 and some stutters. Our secondary if (when) 1250 breaks comes along at 1100p where it almost must bounce. Unfortunately, due to it breaking a major trend, the share price will find itself in a region where any negative news around such a point risks a hard short circuit down to 900p as best guess.

And then, it gets seriously dangerous as ultimate bottom calculates at 325p, this being the point we cannot calculate below.

However, it's nearly the festive season and also approaching winter, so the chances are yet another round of price increases will be mentioned... At time of writing, the share price requires above 1520 to escape the immediate (dashed blue) downtrend and commence a cycle toward 1590, hopefully challenging the solid blue line which allows us to generate all these grotty drop potentials. Closure above 1590p is liable to be game changing, suggesting longer term movement to 1758 with secondary, if bettered, at 2082p.

For now, we'd submit it worth keeping an eye on as should 1100p make an appearance, we'd tend expect quite a reasonable bounce.

Published 17/09/2017

FTSE & FERRARI (FTSE:UKX & NYSE:RACE) Those who watched the Singapore race were rewarded,ambition overtaking ability for the Ferrari guys, a synchronised crash ending both cars race. It also left us looking hard at our Ferrari share price article last week (link here) where we questioned whether Ferrari Share Trend could 'really' prophesise the cars chances in a race. We wrote "apparently the Ferrari Formula 1 team probably face a pretty lacklustre weekend"

About the only fundamental we used to believe related to race teams and now, even that one is questionable. We're the first folk to say there was no way a trend signal should have predicted both Ferrari drivers hitting each other, all it related to was NYSE:RACE share price. But the two red cars experienced magnetic attraction, trashing the chances of a good race from the front. As far as Ferrari share price is concerned, our outlook remains unchanged and despite any near term fake rises, it'll probably bottom around 93.17 according to our software. Once again, here's a link to our prior article. (link here)

As for the FTSE for the week ahead, we kinda noticed the UK market had a pretty rotten Friday with the index fall ending just a few points above our "near term" target at 7185. What was interesting (from our perspective) is we'd expected a stumble around 7255 on the way down. In reality, the stumble occurred just a few points higher. We suspect a calibration issue may be involved as this behaviour, both with the drop target and the stutter zone, makes us suspect the market actually has bottomed at 7195 points and we should hope for a near term bounce.

We'll start by embracing our optimistic naivety and look at upward potentials, if indeed the FTSE  is showing underlying strength.

When we look at obvious manipulation trends, the FTSE currently need better 7267 to suggest the immediate downward force has eased. But to be realistic, the original trend forcing the market down is sitting at 7360 currently, so to be utterly sane, we require finding excuses to better such a point. As the market closed at 7212 points, if it were to make it above 7267 it enters a cycle where 7322 is believable with secondary, if bettered, at 7365. This obviously takes the index into a region where the end of the week was but a bad dream. And better still, 7476 becomes attainable.

Visually though, we're clutching at straws.

Now below 7195 and weakness toward 7165 is expected which, when broken, now starts a cycle down to 7094 initially but realistically we're expecting a bounce now at 7040 points.

If triggered, the index need better 7267 to nonsense the drop potentials.

As usual, we'll issue an update if anything hits a fan!

Published 14/09/2017

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) The FTSE is showing every sign of immediate chaos, closing the 14th Sep below the critical 7300 level and therefore firmly emplaced in a region where weakness toward 7025 makes perfect sense, perhaps with a bounce around 7170 points. As this implies the FTSE toddling off in a different direction from everyone else, we're a bit concerned. Or maybe it's leading the pack!

Recent months have been just a little boring and while the downward trend break is obvious, almost painted in neon, we've seen some indications which in normal circumstance would tell us to ignore the drop. One particular indicator has been "minute by minute" movements. We measure underlying strength in a market when normal logic is exceeded; ie, when a LONG outperforms or a SHORT outperforms. In the case of the FTSE, LONGS have tended meet and exceed initial targets whereas SHORTS tend not quite reach initial targets.

This sort of behaviour generally advises accurately which direction a trend break is liable to take. And in the current situation, with a currency whose strength is measured in chocolate frogs and an economy about to be murdered by Brexit (if we believe the media), our underlying mantra expecting an upward break has been feeling increasingly fragile.

We'll be stubborn first and try to measure the argument for near term upward travel. And hope all the movements DO NOT happen in the opening second on the 15th!

Rather uselessly, anything near term above 7318 is supposed to reach an initial 7330 points. If triggered, stop can be at yesterdays low of 7286 points. Crucially, if 7330 is bettered, we shall take this as the first sign the market actually bottomed, stir the tea leaves again, and now promote 7364 as a more interesting secondary destination.

Of course, the market actually needs better 7380 to escape the ruling force down to 7025 points but the important thing to take away from the foregoing, aside from a potential 46 point rise, is we use this as a measurement of real market direction.

The other side to the misery is what happens if 7286 is broken?

First, any short position tightest stop is at 7380 currently, unpleasantly wide. But if 7286, a magnificent drop toward a near term 7270 makes some sense. But if 7270 breaks, a cycle toward 7185 makes sense and tends justify the silly stop loss level. A small caveat of expecting a stumble downward around 7255 makes sense.

Published 13/09/2017

Royal Dutch Shell (LSE:RDSB) By bettering 55 USD (marginally), there's a theory Brent Crude has enabled a game changing movement and is supposed to be on a cycle to 60 USD next with secondary, if bettered, at 71 USD. Of course, how much of this is due to hysteria over recent storms or the usual winter fakery remains to be seen! Perhaps we're placing undue credit on a day high of 55.20, especially as Brent Futures only reached 55.065...

Sometimes, when the Futures market is outstripped by the real market, it can be wise not to fire off party poppers. However, it certainly gives an excuse for an updated look at one of the oil majors, so we've selected Royal Dutch Shell as the test case.

Currently trading around 2192p, the immediate situation suggests any growth bettering just 2207 commences a cycle toward an initial 2339p. Visually, this even makes some sense, suggesting a challenge against BLUE on the chart, the downtrend for the last three years. While secondary, if bettered, calculates around the 2600p level, there's a fly in the ointment at the very deliberate refusal to permit the price above 2400p. In keeping with the law of Higher Highs, it makes a massive degree of sense to wait the share price actually closing above 2400p before making too many plans for a rosy future where we get to mention 3000p.

As Red on the chart signals, there's been quite an impressive degree of respect paid to the uptrend and it currently demands the share price break 2120 before rushing off to change underwear as this would tick the first box for reversal toward the 2000p level, perhaps even 1745p if negative news is involved.

For now, we tend regard it as heading to 2339p.

Published 12/09/2017

FERRARI (NYSE:RACE) Some folk suspect trends can reliably predict the future. If this is so, apparently the Ferrari Formula 1 team probably face a pretty lacklustre weekend in Singapore as early trend signals are not great. Of course, the folks who know about "stuff" predict Singapore is a weekend where Ferrari should actually do rather well, whereas Mercedes are not highly rated. (Our interest in F1 Fundamentals is showing!)

Ferrari shares are currently trading around 109.94 and need only skid below 108.9 to confirm our suspicions as weakness to 102.6 looks viable. A movement such as this will prove dangerous as it's capable of triggering a further crash in the direction of 93.17.

To rubbish the suggestion, the share price requires better 115.88, so there's the stop loss level for those who believe the RED team are about to watch their world championship potentials race off into the sunset. Or, in the case of Singapore, the streetlight. (for those who correctly ignore F1, Singapore is a night-time event)

However, there is always a "however".

If we draw a trend line from the last major manipulation against Ferrari back at the start of May (there's a theory these big gaps signify a new trend starting) any coming reversal down to the 93 level is liable to bounce from the trend line as visually, there's a good chance the share price is simply gathering momentum for a future surge above its all time high at 118p.

Therefore, in theory above 115.88 should start a trend to 129 next initially but realistically we could dream of 142 in the future, assuming the team manage not to screw up the world championship. If triggered, the stop could be 112 but we'd prefer inject the fuel of sanity. Chasing a trade like this only becomes sane, should Ferrari actually better 118 again and thus, an entry point above the prior high will present the safest option.

Published 11/09/2017

CASPIAN SUNRISE (LSE:CASP) and a bit of SAN LEON too (LSE:SLE) It's always nice to find a share with a cheery name on this day when we're reminded when the b****rds stole the magic of flying. Even after all these years, the special feeling of looking up at an airplane remains a fond memory. Instead, we just look down and wonder where the bottom is.

This brings us rather neatly to CASPIAN as the share price calculates with a bottom of 5.65p, something achieved twice in recent years. This, thankfully, indicates a share price which has tended play by our rules and creates the scenario where below 5.65p is very likely to provoke a slip now to 4.15p. Rather conveniently this matches the ruling uptrend since 2013, hinting rather strongly at a coming bounce is achieved.

Visually, this sort of flamboyant flourish is the sort of nonsense we've come to expect to complete such a vile long term downtrend this share exhibits. Typically, any bounce should be expected to challenge the ruling downtrend, currently at 10.5p though it'll be worth redrawing the line should 4.15p make an appearance.

Recently, we've become fond of tossing around calculations for numbers which, if bettered, will tend suggest a share has bottomed and now showing some upward strength. In the case of CASP,  in the event of the price trading above just 6.875p mid, it ticks the very first box to suggest it has already bottomed, giving the first sign of hope "something" is about to happen. Of course, our favourite caveat remains - if it betters 6.875 as an opening second spike, forget it.

SAN LEON ENERGY (LSE:SLE)  Some months ago, we'd speculated of a bottom on SLE at 18p (see inset on chart). Usually when this sort of thing happens, we tend hope for a coming bounce to at least challenge the trend but this particular share had a nasty movement the day prior to its last trading suspension. In fact, we're surprised the 'powers that be' were not asked to find justification for what happened.

Our inclination is to ignore the movement and instead, regard the best hope as being a challenge of the real downtrend - currently at 29p. The next few days should allow a story to develop, so we may revisit the share.

Published 10/09/2017

FTSE FOR THE WEEK (FTSE:UKX) A sneaking suspicion the FTSE has been reacting to the US Hurricane business makes us wonder whether any one the US fruitcake element will prove successful is blowing, shooting, praying, or looting the storm away. Watching CNN news, the excitement was palpable when a wheelie bin blew over in Miami 10 hours before the storm made landfall. FTSE behaviour reminds of the old adage, when the US catches cold, the UK develops pneumonia.

If this indeed is the case, the coming week is liable to be trashed by a UK market rushing to the emergency department but to be realistic, we'd refrain from panic unless the FTSE finds sufficient excuse to slither below 7300 points. In fact, if looking for early warning of coming troubles, even below 7350 permits a raised eyebrow. We've some doubts as to whether any storm effects actually shall stick, mainly thanks to so called 'social media' and its ability to illustrate reality despite an entire world media becoming excited due to a Miami wheelie bin falling over in the early hours of Sunday morning, long before the hurricane actually arrived.

So, if the market is in trouble, below 7350 gives early warning whereas if it's all probable fakery but above 7388 gives an early clue of media hysterics being ignored. The interesting aspect is the proximity of both numbers, essentially suggesting the market doesn't have a clue what to do.

Our own thinking is to resort to looking at recent lows as they suggest should the future break below 7300, a drop toward 7250 now makes sense with secondary 7183. And this, unfortunately, takes the index into the realms of lower lows with 7020 proving to be the ruling attraction.

Equally, if we look for "higher highs", while above 7388 gives some hope for an upward break, we'd prefer waiting see the FTSE better 7440 as 7525 looks about right with secondary 7600 points. And as mentioned on Friday, above 7600 represents a game changer for the FTSE with 7,900 possible with secondary, if bettered, at a long term 8,700.

And if you think this means you can go long at 7,388 with a target of 8,700 and a stop just below 7,350... you're on your own. Sometimes we don't take numbers too seriously. And sometimes we regret this flippant attitude.

Published 07/09/2017

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) As with hurricanes, sometimes an occasional satellite photo of the markets isn't a bad idea and in the case of the FTSE, it also provides one of our rare 

 "print it out and stick it on the wall" comments. In addition, the second chart below is especially curious when viewed against its 21 year old parent.

Firstly, there's something important about The Big Picture. It tells us, once again, should the FTSE now trade above the 7,600 point mark, it enters a cycle to 7,900 next. Secondary comes in at a very probable 8,700 points. Additionally, amazingly and even astoundingly, our software advises if the movement triggers then no stop is required!

This particular proposal is given as a result of just two criteria. Either the stop should be as tight as heck OR the width of a required stop is too stupid to suggest. When this sort of nonsense crops up, here's a reasonable rule of thumb; if the movement triggers, stick in a stop loss just below the prior days lowest level. Or accept your trading software' default and crucially, go do something else for a while and stop paying attention to the markets.

For now though, it's quite curious how market conditions in the last few weeks tend mimic the FTSE big picture. It's certainly something we don't recall seeing previously and if this microcosm of the Big Picture behaves the same way, allegedly the FTSE is about to experience a near term boost. If this is the case, here's the key numbers.

Near term, should the FTSE better 7414, it enters a position where we're looking for some growth to 7465 points initially. Our secondary, if such a level is bettered, comes in at 7550 points. About the sanest stop appears to be 7350 though, if we resort to drawing lines, there's a suggestion a stop could be placed at 7399 points.

Have a good weekend.

Published 06/09/2017

PETROFAC LTD (LSE:PFC) Why is X-Factor not shown once every four years? Everyone acknowledges 'Reality' shows are basically garbage, designed to fill these empty spaces between TV advertising. Thus, it was with considerable horror we discovered our own favourite show, "Gold Rush", is classed as Reality TV! We thought it documentary - but our reality is better than everyone else' anyway...

Seriously though, if X Factor followed the World Cup model, it would prove more interesting with a wider timeframe allowing some proper talent to emerge. Similarly, if Big Brother followed the example set by the Scottish village of Brigadoon, it would appear only once every 100 years, along with "I'm' a Nonentity, get me out".

What's this got to do with shares? The clue is the word "timeframe" (along with irritation at a granddaughters fascination with X Factor)

We never deny timeframes are our Achilles heel though, we do feel they are generally impossible to predict accurately. A recent example was RBS where we'd postulated a target of 265p. It met this target, even exceeded it and is now rummaging around in the gutter along with politicians searching for integrity. We "knew" RBS was going to hit 265p and anyone who'd followed our commentary probably cussed when the price actually bettered target. From our perspective, it didn't really matter as we also "knew" 265 would doubtless provoke some stutters anyway, so despite cursing us when it hit 270p, perhaps a round of drinks are in order with the share price slithering around 244p now. They key element was it almost had to happen but we'd no idea how long it would take.

And this is the problem with Petrofac. It has experienced a couple of good sessions recently and we feel guilty, 'cos it had ticked virtually every box to suggest the price really wants to bottom (ideally before) at 180p. At time of writing, it's trading at 444p and needs above 740p (RED) to force us to shut up about the 180p bottom potential.

But when a 4 quid share starts experiencing 8+% days, we must surely pay attention?

From a near term perspective, it seems some optimism remains possible as above just 448p calculates as entering a cycle toward 490p next. While perhaps not the most scintillating of notions, the key ingredient comes if 490p bettered as our secondary comes in at 568p. Visually, given an ambition of 490p matches the highs of earlier this year, common sense demands some stutters around such a level, so if chasing a quick trade this presents a sane target.

The 568p thing is a bit more tenuous - remembering ultimate bottom of 180p remains exerting its own brand of gravity. But with closure above 490p, it becomes a difficult thing to ignore as the price could easily accelerate beyond such a point and cover the gap from 615p.

In summary, there are some very real dangers associated with this share price and a poor news report is liable to stuff it downward sharply. For now though, the visuals imply an attempt at 490p is not out of the question and hopefully, with closure above, beyond.

Published 05/09/2017

LLOYDS BANK (LSE:LLOY) It has been a month since we viewed this lot and it's failed to do anything special. Perhaps the 4.44p width of movement has deep meaning to some folk but from our perspective it simply illustrated what a waste of time August was. Unfortunately, we'd postulated 63.5 as a droop target and not only has the share obliged, it has managed to slither below. Obviously, this means something and our software is now proclaiming a bounce point for the price.

Actually, it's the same bounce point we'd mentioned last month; somewhere around 57.5168p mid-price apparently. Of course, we always give some derrière covering numbers and in the case of Lloyds, the very last straw for the next leg down should be trades below 61.52p - though in fairness it's just about in the drop zone from a visual perspective, closing the 5th Sept against the RED uptrend, though to be pedantic, it did end the session a few 1/100th of a penny below.

Worse, there's another issue if 57.5 actually does make an appearance. We shall commence viewing Lloyds as a share achieving lower lows and probably feel the need to mention 50.5 as possible for a real "trampoline" bounce.

To escape this mess, the share price requires bettering 66.85p currently, the BLUE line on the chart.

So, now all the good news is out of the way, what does the immediate future hold?

We'll pretend the share closed the session above RED and assume some sort of bounce is viable. This being the case, the immediate situation suggests anything capable of bettering 64.2p should attempt 65.25p which, if bettered, ticks the first box for bottom being "in". Then things get a little curious, thanks to all the opening second manipulation gaps the price has suffered. Apparently, above 65.25 means we should express optimism in the direction of 66p but the price could easily find sufficient oomph to accelerate to 68.5p and beyond.

For now though, we suspect 57.5p shall probably give some sort of bounce in the fullness of time.

Published 04/09/17 

CARD FACTORY (LSE:CARD) Recent news of Yellow Pages final demise reminded of the thump when an unopened copy hit the bottom of an empty wheelie bin. A secret hope similar fate awaits the greeting card industry appears a wasted dream. Despite the internet and common sense, people still insist on sending greeting cards to celebrate mediocrity. Which brings us to the Card Factory and their share price.

When we view their downtrend since 2015, it appears pretty nicely designed, hinting any movement fairly soon above 343p (BLUE) should bring an initial greeting to 361p with secondary, if exceeded, at a longer term major occasion of 404p. We've designed to designate 404p as a major occasion due to this matching (okay, slightly bettering) the share price' all time high back in September 2015.

It would be utter madness not to expect some dramatics at such a level, if only due to those whose funds were trapped at the prior high liquidating and causing a deluge of sell orders. The unpleasant reality for those so effected comes, if the share price actually manages to CLOSE above the 400p level. Our inclination will be to regard this as a bit of a game changer for the price, requiring another stir of the tea leaves as while we're calculating 448p above this point, the reality could prove quite a bit higher.

In house, we were speculating on a new line of greetings cards to mark the coming "Guy Fawkes" celebration. Imagine a card which exploded when opened? Though this has perhaps been already invented by folk sharing Guy Fawkes sentiments, it'd be hard to envision something quite as unpleasant as a card which issued a shower of Disneyesque glitter sparkles unexpectedly and therefore, a probable best seller. Until the first murder.

We do suspect CARD shall prove worth keeping an eye on during the coming weeks, ideally for closure above 343p as upward travel should prove difficult to restrain. Any attempt to slow the share down requires the price falling below RED at 295p currently and below the Dashed Red at 236p would scare the heck out of us as a decline to 220 / 150 eventually would appear inevitable.

Published 01/09/17 

FTSE FOR THE COMING WEEK (FTSE:UKX) The current 'Korea Thing' reminds of the John Wyndham's (the Day of the Triffids bloke) book, the Kraken Wakes. It's a usual 'The Worlds Ending' short story and in it, the two hero's discuss which shares they've bought due to sea shipping lanes closing. Both had gone for airline stocks and now, we wonder if the building sector will face a surge! Even though the world is ending apparently.

The FTSE certainly completed August with some reasonable potentials for the future as movements now above 7460 signal continued traffic toward an initial 7528 points with secondary coming in at a thermonuclear 7,600 points. The BLUE line on the chart coincides with 7528 later this week...

We've a bit of an issue with the 7,600 ambition as once the FTSE starts bettering this point, a further 200+ point surge becomes very available. However, it certainly appears any bonk against the 7,600 level is liable to provoke a stutter, if only due to the challenge facing a market attempting to beat the June high. And this, despite us facing financial ruin due to avaricious Europeans and physical ruin due to North Korea.

This is why we tend ignore the news. According to UK headlines, we should all be digging holes and puling it in over ourselves!

There's a slight issue with current growth potentials, due to the immediate growth curve. It's essentially too steep and presents the situation where the FTSE needs slip below RED - currently 7296, before becoming worried about upward travel. As this presents an unpleasantly near 150 point stop loss width, it's not entirely useful.

But what happens if 7296 now breaks?

Initially, we calculate weakness now toward 7175 but should such a level break with any substance, it seems 7025 comes in as a bottom where a bounce can be hoped. But "normal" rules say the market is going to 7,600 as top on the current cycle.

Published 31/08/17 

FTSE FOR FRIDAY and BMR GROUP (FTSE:UKX & LSE:BMR) Sometimes, we see a share behaving strangely and feel the need to say something, if it's one we know but don't cover on a daily basis for clients. On Thursday 31st Aug, BMR did something stupid, so we looked at moves from 8am until 11.30 then Tweeted about the potentials of 6p appearing, perhaps even 7.25p. Once suspension was lifted, it shot up to 6.5p before being murdered!

The unpleasant inset on the chart below illustrates our dismay. Despite a stonking surge to 6.5p, considerable care was taken to ensure the share price actually CLOSED the session below the uptrend since the start of 2016. This particular uptrend does appear important, given the circled movement at the end of June when the share was forced below the trend. It's almost like someone doesn't actually want the price to go up just yet as it closed the session at 3.75, indicating anything continuing below 3.75 should find 3.25p hopefully coated with trampoline juice.

Any bounce now continuing above 6.15p looks capable of 7.15p next with secondary coming in at 9.375p. Fingers crossed time, as usual!

FTSE FOR FRIDAY  Our comments about a 'surprise' recovery at the start of September looks close to fruition. Perhaps we saw this on Thursday (usually a negative day on the FTSE) with the market appearing quite uppity. This situation now expects anything near term above 7444 to continue to an initial 7472 points with secondary, if bettered, at 7545 points. Recent behaviour has tended legislate against 100 point days on the FTSE but who knows, a new month, new optimism, and all of the USA are fully employed building an Ark apparently.

If triggered, the FTSE needs below 7416 to cancel any immediate optimism, a dangerously tight stop loss when viewed against a 100 point potential. If we attribute our lower low laws, the stop should really be 7364 points!

So what happens if 7364 is broken?

Initial weakness to 7314 looks about right. Secondary comes in at 7255 points. If triggered, stop can be at 7381 points, again surprisingly tight!

Have a good weekend.

Published 30/08/17 

HURRICANE & PAN AFRICAN (LSE:HUR & LSE:PAF) The plethora of damp misery from the USA almost demands we visit HURRICANE ENERGY just to remain on-topic. Whereas a client rather spoiled our aloof behaviour by advising PAN AFRICAN are liable to benefit should our recent GOLD thoughts come to fruition. In fairness, it's probably a better reason rather than our in-house addiction to Gold Rush on telly!

It must be admitted Hurricane Energy sounds better than Hurricane Harvey but both share a similarity in dampening the outlook for those involved. In the case of LSE:HUR, we rather suspect it's close to a logical "bottom", a point where some sort of bounce should be expected. We're a little vague on this subject due to the plethora of manipulation movements at the open recently but there's now a heck of an argument favouring a bounce from 25p.

We're not entirely sure whether we should actually believe this due to everyone and their dog painting a circle at the gap from 24.5p and convincing themselves the price shall cover the gap before any bounce. This, rather effectively, risks creating a self fulfilling prophecy. Our secondary target, if 25p broken, now calculates at 22p where it almost must bounce. The implication, if it doesn't, is an ultimate bottom of 10p which is visually ridiculous.

Any bounce exceeding 29.5p will better the immediate downtrend, launching the price toward 33p initially hopefully with secondary a very possible 36.75p. Beyond such a point, we will require running the numbers again as some sharp upward travel becomes very possible.

PAN AFRICAN (LSE:PAF) This has exhibited quite a respectable downtrend with traders obviously gearing every decision since July 2016 to ensure the share price failed ever better the BLUE line. Joking aside, this level of manual control can often provide some hysterics as a break above signals control has eased and some swift travel generally follows. The immediate trend suggests anything above 15.5p should target an initial 17.75p. Secondary, if such bettered, comes in at either 21.25 or 23.75p - we're forced to be vague thanks to some manipulation in November 2016 and suspect the reality shall prove to be a glass ceiling at 22p - a series of highs which also match the downtrend.

Rather conveniently, it's also roughly half way between our secondary targets and there's nothing wrong with a reasonable compromise!

Published 29/08/17 

GOLD (COMEX:QO) It's easy to forget about Gold - we've two Golden Retrievers and neither ever bring any back! But the price of GOLD has recently started exhibit signs of waking up with the result short positions are liable to melt away. As the chart shows, the price has now bettered the downtrend since the highs of 2011 and thus, some growth can be anticipated.

There's a little caveat, one liable to be important. The price of Brent Crude also bettered a major downtrend and has since tended flutter around rather than actually showing real growth. As a result, we're a little nervous about the break upwards GOLD is showing and - similar to BRENT and it's trigger level around 56 - we'll not take GOLD too seriously unless the price actually betters 1342. In such an event, our inclination shall be to cough politely and mention 1384 as the next major point of interest, perhaps even 1470 longer term.

Near term, our outlook against GOLD suggests anything now above 1327 should challenge an initial 1336 with secondary, if bettered, at 1342. And only if 1342 is bettered does the Big Picture suggest it has bottomed (for now) and future growth will make sense.

If trouble with the price of GOLD is planned, it requires to drop below BLUE on the chart - currently 1264. But for now, we shall be watching for 1342 making an appearance as, if this level is bettered, it will tend indicate some happy daze ahead for Gold Miners.

Prior Months:

September 2017

August 2017

July 2017

June2017    All the usual culprits!

May2017

April 2017 BMR FLYBE TESLA Griifin Unilever 88 Energy United Airlines Sirius Ferrari Hays YouGov Lloyds Barclays RBS

March 2017 Aberdeen Ass Laura Ashley ARGOS A G BARR French Connection BHP AFC Aberdeen Asset Jubilee LLOYDS RBS BARC Debenhams GreatPortland Just Eat Sirius

February 2017 Ferrari Sound Proton Power SIRIUS_SXX Esure A)O World CARD Factory Gulf Keystone BMR RENTokill BARCLAYS LLOYDS RBS

January 2017 SIRIUS Ferrari Next Premier Vet GBPEUR LLOYDS SKY Capita FastJet Talk Talk British Telecom SKY Barclays RBS

December16 DOW JONES AO WORLD Ebay SIRIUS BMR Sirius Ferrari Next GBPEUR LLOYDS DIAGEO

November16 Includes FlyBe FastJet Johnston Press SKY Ferrari Rockhopper Lloyds Barclays RBS Sirius BMR Vodafone AMUR Minerals Chesnara Provexis

October16 Includes FTSE GBPEUR RBS Barclays The Dow Jones Ferrari Lloyds GOLD Strategic Minerals BMR PLUS500 DOW AGAIN Gulf Keystone Hurricane Countrywide Vodafone Zoldav

Sept16: Includes Range Resources Highland Natural Resources Cloudtag Tern Kodal UK Oil & Gas Gulf Keystone Hurricane Sirius Barclays San Leon Solo Chariot Sepura 88 Energy Gulf Keystone BMR Forbidden Tech HNR Sound Deutsche Bank Ferrari Twitter

August16 - includes Firstgroup Cobham Drax Edinburgh JimmyChoo Barclays Lloyds WilliamHill OilSector ProtonPower RBS DirectLine BMR JustEat BancaMonteDeiPaschidiSiena SiriusMinerals DixonsCarphone FERRARI Google SanLeon  WMIH  GulfKeystone