Current:   DOW JONES SIRIUS  Ferrari Next Premier Vet GBPEUR LLOYDS SKY Capita FastJet Talk Talk British Telecom SKY Barclays RBS Click here to visit prior months

Published 31st Jan 2017

Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE:RBS)   We're finishing January with a look at the bank that never fails to disappoint. The current movement cycle is supposed to head toward 255, maybe even 264p with any traffic above 243p. But this, of course, is RBS. We'd like to say price movements have a mind of their own but can the brainless have a mind?

In fairness, there's more in favour of a stab at the 255 level than an immediate reversal but we're starting to develop collywobbles due to recent price moves. Currently the share needs below 212p to confirm our fears as this is liable to provoke weakness toward  200p initially, perhaps even an uptrend trend bashing 188p.

The scary thing is, in the event of RBS' share price opting to fraternise with the RED uptrend, we'd be inclined to fear the worst as any negative news is liable to provide further travails in the direction of 144p and hopefully a bounce. Of sorts. But the annoying thing is, a break of RED would signal the end of any current argument favouring a top of 264p on the immediate movement cycle.

However, for now there remains strong arguments favouring growth as, firstly, there's the circled Brexit-Vote manipulation gap and secondly, there's the PINK glass ceiling just above the 250p level. Generally these things prove irresistible.

We can hope.

FUTURES

Published 30th Jan 2017

BARCLAYS BANK (LSE:BARC)   We urgently need to talk about Barclays. Of course, there's no real reason other than we promised a monthly update and the January clock has just about run out!  In honesty, since we last ran the numbers in December, very little has changed.

The problem with the share is both RED and BLUE. Currently, to start going UP, the price needs close above 255.995p whereas if it intends self immolation, closure below 200.705 will justify panic. But for now, the price is bumbling along exhibiting Mr Bean tendency's, ignoring whatever is going on around it. Movements on Monday 30th intraday were irritating, constantly teasing the price wants to visit a boring 212p. The problem we have is, intraday trades below 212 will suggest a coming nod in the direction of 202p and a probable challenge of RED. Only if RED breaks do we become alarmed as until such a point, we're actually fairly optimistic on this share. But a break of RED allows the low 180's to make a guest appearance.

However, from a Big Picture perspective, the share is now trading above the downtrend since 2007 and this is normally a good thing. The value would require shrinking below 200p currently to slither below this particular trend, once again embracing the dark side.

Or in other words, should 202p make an appearance anytime soon, we now have TWO distinctly different reasons to anticipate a reasonable bounce.

But given Barclays is currently trading on the right of a big picture downtrend and there's absolutely no political upheaval in the world, what does the share need achieve to suggest growth will occur without 203 being troubled?

Currently trading at 223p, the price needs better 235 to convince us it's seen bottom on the immediate cycle. Above 235 should trigger growth now to an initial 242p with secondary, if bettered, at 254p. In fact, we already regard this as heading to 254p as it needs below 202p to spoil the calculation. And this takes us back to our initial waffle about the ruling trends - the Dark Blue downtrend since 2013 will be around the 254 level at the middle of February.

FUTURES

Published 29th Jan 2017

FTSE FOR THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX) Friday managed to complete the week as it started, boring us silly.  Some slight hope can be taken from the point at which the FTSE closed the day as above 7185 now points at 7221 points initially with secondary, if bettered, at 7275 points.

If last weeks modal is anything to go by, we just presented an argument favouring a doubling of recent range. We're inclined to take some hope from the current range of dire headlines in the media, due to previous market performance when faced with media inspired apocalypse. Essentially, whether it's Brexit, the US Election, or whatever, the markets seem inclined to perform anyway.

Should this be the case, it's easy to extrapolate a 3rd target level of 7370 points.

However, on the basis the current level of gloom will prove to be valid, if the FTSE manages below 7145 points, it's supposed to hit 7080 points initially. And if 7080 were to break, it all gets a bit miserable as weakness toward 6965 looks possible.

We just proposed a fairly straightforward set of parameters - below 7145 and we're all doomed or above 7185 and we're all happy. Our inclination will be to propose extreme caution should either number be exceeded when the market opens on Monday 30th. Experience has taught that should London open below 7145 yet fail to illustrate a lower low within the first 90 minutes, a miracle recovery can be anticipated. And the converse is, should it open above 7185 and fail to better the opening high within 90 minutes, expect the worst.

Ridiculous? Yes.

The market? Yes...

The Brexit vote uptrend is currently around 6950 points, so no worries!

   FUTURES

Published 26th Jan 2017

FTSE for FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX). And a DOW comment This week has been a bit rubbish, to use techno babble. Virtually all the action on the market has taken place, literally, in the opening minutes of London with the rest of the day struggling to exhibit more than 20 points of volatility. In fact, the difference between last Fridays close and where the market ended on the 26th is just 37 exquisitely boring points.

We succumbed to temptation and drew a straight line on the chart for the week. It tells us the FTSE needs better 7189.161 (currently) to escape this period of slumber...

If we then work on the basis the last 4 days of hiatus indeed comprise a trend, this suggests anything near term above 7189 should target an initial 7219 with secondary, if bettered, at a supposedly confident 7249 points. Beyond such a point, we'd need give the tea leaves a stir but it's pleasant to face a Friday with the potential of a 60 point movement. If triggered, the FTSE would need slither below 7136 to cancel the movement potential, giving a 53 point stop loss potential balancing a 60 point gain scenario.

In honesty, once any movement to our initial target is achieved, common sense suggests anything above 7219 once the DOW opens is liable to grow to 7249 without much interruption.

However...

What happens if the market founders below 7136 points?

We'd anticipate an initial droop to 7115 points with secondary, if broken, at a longer term 7085 points. As RED shows on the chart, even reversal such as this would not prove terribly alarming as the post-Bexit uptrend is currently at 6938 points.

As for the DOW, as we'd suggested, the market didn't hit 20k and recoil. Instead, it still seems intent on some growth. Further movement above 20126 suggests 20160 with secondary, if (when) bettered at 20249 points. And then, we suspect a short position will become valid - with a pretty tight stop.

FUTURES

Published 25th Jan 2017

SKY PLC (LSE:SKY) Quite a bit prior to the demise of YELL, the Yellow Pages people, we'd started a report with a comment; "The only thing Yellow Pages makes is a satisfying thunk as the unopened package on your doorstep is dropped into an empty wheely bin."

We're started to have a similar feeling about Sky PLC!

As with everything in the world, it's the fault of the old Top Gear crew and the need to get hold of an Amazon Firestick to watch their rehashed juvenile antics at 00:01am on a Friday morning. It probably took 5 episodes of the new program until the penny dropped; rather than grouching about the inability to record programs as with a Sky Plus box, there was absolutely no need to record anything. Whatever is wanted remains available for viewing, whenever you want.

"It's the internet, stupid..."

Of course, once the Firestick thing had been turbocharged with the inclusion of a software package called Kodi , it became apparent the Sky Plus box was spending increasing time, just sitting with a small sad Amber 'stand-by' light glowing. And then, we started to discuss whether to just ditch our (already basic) Sky subscription, probably along with our TV licence. All it took was a single TV program to change the attitude of an age. Whatever we want to watch on TV is now always there, not dependant on a satellite dish or even an aerial.

And this is why it's easy to draw an analogy between YELLOW PAGES & SKY PLC. The consequences of The Internet continue to unfold. Our prior article on Sky (Link Here) proved quite prescient as the movement to 1017 and beyond was indeed sharp, all happening on December 9th last year in a single session.

Currently, the closing price downtrend is at 1055.77 whereas the normal "higher high" downtrend is at 1074.724p and we're pretty sure one of these numbers is important. In fairness, we suspect 1074p is the critical one as CLOSURE above this level takes the share price above the downtrend since the year 2000, trashing our miserable drop potentials, and once again launching the price into a region where some growth can be hoped. Basically, this requirement is a "loaves & fishes" approach, demanding both a higher high and a higher close price as moves toward 1175 look possible. Secondary, if beaten, is at 1301p.

However, despite the visual acrobatics on SKY PLC last December, we're not entirely convinced and suspect we simply witnessed an attempt to stop the share price relaxing. Unfortunately, the share needs slip below RED (750p) before any indication of trouble must be taken very seriously. Any drop such as this expects a visit to 668 initially but realistically, we think 497p would prove a bounce point.

The danger comes if 497p breaks as a shooting star movement down to 64p looks possible. And this, unfortunately, would take SKY PLC directly into Good 'Ole Yellow Pages territory as we cannot calculate anything below 64p.

Finally, by way of anecdote, this entire report was written while frantically trying to remember what the Amazon "Top Gear" show is actually called. Which, of course, calls the entire need for a brand into question!

FUTURES

Published 24th Jan 2017

British Telecom (LSE:BT.A) & TALK TALK (LSE:TALK) This pair of paragons of communication excellence managed to clutter up our email. We've a couple of "smartypants"  prior commentaries against each, one from July 2016 giving a target of 309 for BT, another from November 2015 giving a target of 152 for Talk Talk. (BT Link Here TalkTalk Link Here)

BT closed the 24th at 303p, Talk Talk closed at 158p with a low of 150p. Both broke our drop targets and therefore, we need examine further drop potentials with any ongoing weakness.

British Telecom firstly.

BT has been moved below the uptrend since 2009's crash, closing slightly below our target, and now trading in a region where we can now anticipate 212p with the potential of making an appearance with further weakness. This number is something we'd regard as "ultimate" bottom due to a current inability to calculate anything below such a point which isn't prefaced with a minus sign. If there's any inherent strength, we'd hope the price would bounce before such a vile bottom.

To even regain the uptrend since 2009, BT.A needs better 350p currently to better RED but the harsh reality of downtrends suggests we dare not take any rise seriously unless the price betters 394p (BLUE) as this would cancel the potential of 212p making an appearance. The share price experienced a rather caustic day with the price closing in a position where anything near term below 297.7p enters the cycle to 212p.

Talk Talk Telecom (LSE:TALK)  We're being a bit disingenuous with our 152 target against Talk Talk as it actually hit it in December. The drop on the 24th was another stab at target. However, the weakness since the start of 2015 has been relentless, shown with a miserable BLUE line. Thankfully, Talk Talk has not committed the crime of actually closing below 152p and now making weakness to 122p initially with secondary, if broken, 112p inevitable.

In fact, we're now less comfortable with the potential of 112p and suspect any break of RED will find a bounce point by 122p. Importantly, unlike BT above, Talk Talk have NOT broken their big picture uptrend (yet) and at time of writing the trend from 2010 is at roughly 151.352p. 

As BLUE shows, TalkTalk needs better 180p currently to escape this downtrend. Ideally, a bunch of folk who believe in chart patterns will identify the two recent moves to 152p as a "double bottom". If this proves the case, above RED can anticipate an initial 205p. Our secondary, if this point is bettered, calculates at 236p but to be sane, we'd prefer take another look should the 205p thing work out.

RANDOM FUTURES

Published 23rd Jan 2017

Fastjet (LSE:FJET) It has been a few months since we last looked at Fastjet (link here). The price managed to achieve our 13.5p, actually beating it briefly at the open and in the period since, the share has achieved a degree of recovery.

As the chart illustrates, the price has sleepwalked through the downtrend since 2015 and done exactly nothing since. We'd be nervous advocating any near term rise potentials until such time it starts trading above 19.5p as growth to an initial 24.5 looks about right. Better still, with closure above 24.5p, there's a strong argument favouring 35p and a period of almost certain stutters. The chart shows a few previous occasions when the share reached such a level before the trend break occurred and doubtless selling pressure will slow down any future rise as the folk trapped since June 2016 bail at break even.

However, we can extrapolate a doubtless distant 65p should the price ever manage to actually close above 35p. Amazingly, this coincides suspiciously neatly with the circled gap.

If trouble is planned, should it find any reason to visit 13.5p again, we'll be inclined to move seats to the upright position, place our head between our legs, and kiss our "a**e goodbye. Bottom is at a best guess 4.1p.

FUTURES

Published 22nd Jan 2017

FTSE for the week (FTSE:UKX) We've not published our Big Picture chart for the FTSE for a while and it's starting to illustrate something quite remarkable. It's even worth stressing we've never seen this behaviour against the FTSE but the DOW JONES did something similar back in November.

When we've seen shares exhibit this sort of recovery, solidly regaining prior trend, it invariably suggests strong growth is going to continue as an entirely new upward trend is about to develop. When we boasted about our 7358 target indeed provoking some volatility, we omitted to mention something the big picture has been suggesting as, it suggests 7438 should be regarded as the next significant milestone on the current cycle.  And if the market closes above such a point, we're supposed to mention 7767 as possible.

If the market were a share, we'd be quite confident but of course, the media constantly remind us of "their" opinion of politicians and this tends influence our thinking. Certainly, the "we're all doomed" attitude which prevailed following the BREXIT vote appears to be comprehensively rubbished with the main victims doubtless being private investors who fear the worst. The funny thing is, our outlook at the start of 2017 which gave really "Big Picture" stuff (link here) had, in addition to mentioning the 7350 thing, also given a possibility of 8200. At the time, we were only trying to grab a headline but with the visit to 7350, we're no longer quite as sceptical.

So, what's needed to derail this unbridled confidence for 2017?

Applying similar logic to that used against shares, we'd panic if the market now closed below RED, the 2009 trend. Currently this would need the FTSE to actually CLOSE below 7145 points. And this presents a potential problem near term.

The index closed Friday at 7195 points and movement now below 7175 signals traffic toward 7150 initially with secondary, if broken, at a trend breaking 7085 points. In fact, unusually, we can project the potential of a further 100 point loss to 6985 points, potentially challenging the post-Brexit-vote uptrend.

However, we shall be more interested this week if the market betters 7260 as moves toward an initial 7306 look sane. Secondary, if bettered, is at a longer term 7430 points.

FUTURES

Published 19th Jan 2017

FTSE for FRIDAY, CAPITA, and GBP vs USD (LSE:CPI) Despite our utter hatred of near term Forex, the view from a Big Picture is often useful with the Pound / Dollar relationship doing something interesting. Additionally, CAPITA has drawn our attention due to it NOT going down and of course, we've our popular FTSE for FRIDAY outlook.

Firstly, FTSE for FRIDAY feels fragile, following fixed (stuff this, can't think of another F word) trends which appear to suggest the market should either open down at 7175 or visit such a point during the session and - hopefully - bounce. If we take the attitude the market will oblige with our calculations, an early visit to 7175 which bounces and betters 7234 points is liable to be entertaining as movement above 7234 points at growth toward 7277 points. We'd stress, any stop for such a long position should be tight - perhaps just 12 points - as should 7175 break, our calculations are stuffed.

As for how stuffed, we've a drop trigger at 7162 as movement below points at 7150 with secondary 7084 points.

Hopefully we see the upward track in celebration of Davos completing and Trumps coronation. As RED illustrates, the market remains safely above the Brexit uptrend (6922 currently).

CAPITA (LSE:CPI) This one is of slight interest. As the chart shows, their was a forced drop in September last year, one which we'd been expecting to take the share to 366p. However, the lowest achieved has been 430 and this perhaps indicates some residual strength.

To get the grotty bit out of the way, anything near term below 497 looks like provoking reversal toward 465p initially. Secondary, if broken, remains at 366p.

However, since the share price was dropped, an extremely obvious trend has formed. It suggests the share price need only CLOSE a session above 520p to commence some recovery  toward 622p initially. Secondary, if bettered, is a rather more encouraging 793p  .

Finally, GBP v USD attracted our attention. Essentially, movements have delivered a visual lesson on trends and it now appears probable the relationship may strengthen a bit. When we view the downtrend since the Brexit vote, it's clear the pairing has escaped the immediate path toward near parity. Don't  be fooled, the relationship needs better 1.42 to utterly cancel the computation for parity (or below) but things are never a straight line. Except downtrends!

The insert on the chart shows the closing price on GBPUSD during the last few sessions. While we like candles on charts (they show an entire day in a simple picture) it can be handy to sometimes view closing prices. In the case of this pairing, it becomes pretty obvious the BLUE downtrend has some importance attached and now, above 1.242 is liable to force movement toward 1.265 initially with secondary 1.286.

If triggered, we'd anticipate some serious stutters around the 1.28 level, given the level of the high before BLUE was bettered.

Unfortunately, the caveat remains that unless this pairing recovers its historical trend above 1.42, it remains trading in a region where effective parity is possible and perhaps much worse. All it needs is a politician to say something silly.

What are the chances?

FUTURES

Published 18th Jan 2017

Lloyds Bank (LSE:LLOY) Currently a heck of a lot of shares are doing nothing, simply illustrating movements within our parameters. This forces us to pad out our evening reports with "revisit updates" to give the impression we're working hard! Thankfully, this situation rarely remains for long with generally a few days of "nothing reports" presaging some real activity.

In the case of Lloyds, we've designated closure above 67p as starting the party.

What's a bit curious has been movement from Standard Chartered. We'd designated 767p as a stutter level for the price and the last few days has seen the price actually exceed 767 but fail to close above. Despite this teaser, similar to Lloyds, the share price has thus far remained solidly below the near term trigger level.

For Lloyds, we think intraday traffic now bettering 66.59 should serve notice something positive is happening as growth toward a near term 68.5p should follow. This would be quite a big deal, illustrating a Higher High and making further moves toward 75p a pretty comfortable proposition. Visually, this would cover the circled manipulation gap.

As the chart shows, we've painted a dashed line just below 75p. This glass ceiling "in waiting" will almost certainly provoke a stutter in any rise, if only 'cos a shedload of people will bail once the share covers the manipulation evidence with the assumption the price will retreat. They're probably right but the bunch of people who've bought during the highs of  Dec 2015, Mar 2016, June 2016, will also probably opt to Bail At Break Even, adding to selling pressure and giving further ammunition to justify a stutter just below 75p.

For now it all seems a matter of patience. Lloyds needs below RED - currently 61p - to provide alarm and a slowdown toward 57p initially.

FUTURES

Published 17th Jan 2017

THE FTSE (FTSE:UKX) As mentioned several times, we'd anticipated some volatility at the 7358 level. The market visited 7354.15 before falling off a cliff, so we're inclined to take that as a target met. And in any case, FTSE Futures topped out at 7358.4. [insert smug grin here]

This absurd level of accuracy both amuses and puzzles us. Our repeated commentary about the market going to 7358 was generated, due to the number making an appearance from both a Big Picture perspective and a Near Term perspective. Invariably, when this sort of result pops out, volatility indeed occurs though we were impressed with a -1.5% day on the market. It sometimes feels like our software indeed predicts the future, though quite how a computer knew the effect of our wonderfully competent Prime Ministers speech defeats us. All it knew was 7358 was a logical high, one of these numbers where some market stutters occurs.

So, we've experienced the biggest collywobbles day since November 11th. What's next?

The market experienced a low of 7220 points but we'd pointed out earlier in the week the FTSE needed break 7215 before we'd raise an eyebrow. The immediate situation suggests anything below 7220 will now reach an initial 7194 points with secondary, if broken, at 7175 points. And then it should bounce a bit.

Of course, there's an alternate attitude as recently, one days bad news always turns into good news for the period which follows.

The market DID NOT break our 7215 and therefore we can still calculate 7516 as possible against the current cycle. We'd privately suspected 7516 was perhaps a bit ambitious but equally, we'd felt the same about our 7358 thing. We calculate that anything near term on the FTSE above 7285 should attempt to reach 7317 points. If bettered, a lunge toward 7386 is supposed to happen! And of course, if this is bettered, the shining star which is 7516 remains twinkling in the distance.

Finally, thanks for the emails regarding the unprofessional dog snapshot on the 16th. It was taken in Glencoe with the temperature at -11c. Does funny things to snow but makes the dogs happy.

FUTURES

Published 16th Jan 2016

Premier Vet Group (LSE:PVG) This share always provides an excuse to publish a snapshot of one of our dogs, a breed commonly known as "the vets best friend". This is nothing to do with their nature but rather more an indication of Golden Retrievers ability to hurt themselves. A massive beach can be pristine with just a single nail buried somewhere deep in the sand. Within minutes, one of our dogs will be limping, having found the nail.

Last time we viewed this share (link here) we'd proposed some movement to an initial 180p with secondary, if bettered, at 228p. As the chart shows, it achieved our 180p but failed to actually close above this point.

The interesting situation now proposes movement - even intraday trades - above 180p as heading to an initial 204p with secondary, if bettered, at a more achievable longer term 228p.

This lot are pretty far from being a popular share but it appears to follow "the rules" with price moves in the last couple of sessions allowing for a raised eyebrow. Currently trading around 165p, it appears the market is making an attempt to kick it upstairs again.

As RED highlights, the share needs fall below 110p to provide alarm, along with the potential of a trip toward 80p. Which, like frequent vet bills, would suck.

FUTURES

Published 15th Jan 2016

FTSE FOR THE WEEK (FTSE:UKX) Will this be the week the FTSE sees 7358? We've been banging on about this number all year [duh] and with the market achieving a new "higher high" on Friday 13th, hope continues to lurk in the corner. In fact, the remorseless pace of small rises now permits a further ambition above 7358!

It's at 7516 points.

If playing the long game and using a degree of common sense, the chart shows an uptrend since the start of last December. The FTSE would now need slither below 7215 to escape the immediate pace of ascent and with the market closing the 13th at 7337 points, this implies a pretty wide stop position but of course, we're also projecting a further near 200 point rise.

If we work on the basis "something" causes a slowdown below 7215, we can project a collapse toward 7184 points initially with secondary, if broken, at 7075 points.

Something a bit funny we've noted and it's one for the smart cookies. When the POUND gets trashed against the US DOLLAR, the FTSE generally has a pretty good day. In the section above this article (for clients only) we've published a report on GBPUSD and it warns of dangers for the pairing should it get below 1.1911. If the contra movement on the FTSE happens, should GBPUSD wither below 1.1911, it's probably going to explain a new growth path happening to the 7516 level on the FTSE.

Finally, the solid RED line is around the 6900 point. The FTSE needs break this to indicate the Brexit uptrend has failed. Visually, it appears unlikely.

RANDOM FUTURES

Published 12th Jan 2016

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) For a first week back at work, the market has proven pretty indifferent and we'll need take a hard look at the three retail banks next week. We're wanting BARCLAYS to trade above 240 and LLOYDS to close above 67p. In the event of these criteria taking place, it's probable the FTSE should take a reasonable upward surge.

However, for now, we remain within the jaws of boredom. While the market has indeed visited the 7300's, it was hardly enacted with any aplomb but rather, like a diplomatic fart at a dinner party! We've been droning on about 7300's as a pretty important point of interest. This is one of these arithmetic levels where, despite expecting our 7358 to make a guest appearance, common sense anticipates some market stutters.

The funny thing about any current stutter came from the DOW on the 12th. We'd "sagely" expressed concern if this market moved below 19790 and it indeed dropped 20 points below this level during the session. What has happened next was truly amazing as the bounce exhausted all expectations. It created the situation where anything on the DOW now above 19225 should produce some rather strong upward force - of initially 100 points. This level of oomph is liable to impact on the FTSE, so it will probably prove sane to keep a weather eye on DOW futures during early trading on the FTSE. On FRIDAY 13th!

Firstly, near term on the FTSE, the immediate upward trend is sitting around 7200. Therefore, for any attempt at a slowdown to be valid, the index needs weaken below the dashed RED line on the chart. But realistically, the market needs below 6900, the solid RED line, to indicate the post-Brexit uptrend has failed.

Near term, above 7322 signals near term growth toward 7358 initially with secondary calculating at 7381 points. We've some doubts about the secondary, due to 7358 also being a Big Picture potential - generally this sort of thing takes precedence and will indeed provoke stutters.

Alternately, if a slowdown is coming, below a near term 7263 suggests trouble in the direction of 7220 with secondary 7185 and the potential of breaking the immediate acceleration trend.

FUTURES

Published 11th Jan 2016

The DOW JONES Industrial Average (DOWi:DJI) continues to tease the 20,000 level, frankly driving us a little crackers. We'd been fairly comfortable the FTSE was travelling to the 7300's but the DOW keeps trying - and failing - to achieve this psychological milestone.

However, from the point it closed the session on the 11th, some hope of another growth attempt has appeared. In fact, from the point at which it closed, the given suggestion is of movement now above 19974 points leading to 19999 initially with secondary 20053 points.

In fact, if the day goes berserk, the market could even accelerate onward by a further 100 points.

"Normal" rules suggest the 3rd go at a level will generally be the break and given the DOW has experienced three firm attempts at the 20000 level, hopefully anything now above 19974 will indeed by the breakthrough movement. After all, the SB markets will doubtless be evenly split amongst those who once again intend open at short at 20k and those who've some common sense... Certainly, if opting for the short route, a stop can be as tight as heck as we still show the potential for fairly substantial movement once above 20000 points.

If it all intends go wrong, the index needs weaken below 19790 to justify real concern as this is liable to promote a visit toward 19670 initially. Secondary, if broken, is rather more serious at 19500 points.

FUTURES

Published 10th Jan 2016

BRENT CRUDE This is causing a degree of puzzle, due to the price hitting the 50's and essentially stopping. Our in-house rule of thumb, when this sort of thing happens, is to look for reasons it will instead go down, despite the presence of pretty lines on charts.

We've no doubt the downtrend from 2014 was valid but unfortunately, when the price of BRENT bettered this trend, it achieved our initial 1/2 way target then seemed to lose interest. The price was supposed to achieve our secondary above 55 at 60.5 but has failed to show any real strength. Therefore, the situation now is a bit interesting as should the price of the product close a session below 53.37, we're looking at coming reversal toward 52.88 initially with secondary, if broken, around 49.15 USD. This would represent a bonk against RED, the immediate uptrend.

At time of writing, BRENT is trading at 53.9 and is coming close to triggering a reversal cycle. Of course, the big question is whether 49.15 (or so) would provoke a bounce or is there a risk of the product dripping below such a point?

Currently, there is ample reason to below 49.15 will indeed provide a bounce as movement below would signal the immediate uptrend has failed, propelling the product into a region where 47.4 becomes viable and frankly, below risks a sharp dip into the 30's.

For now though, our suspicion is the price is trapped, essentially oscillating between the 53.3 and 58.5 level for a while, doubtless waiting an excuse to either weaken or strengthen. Immediate calculations warn us not to taken any rise seriously unless the price betters 56.4 as this should provoke growth to 57.5, a fairly important number 'cos if 57.5 is bettered we shall start talking about 60.5 thereafter.

For now, it's not messy, just pretty boring. Perhaps a visit to the 60.5 level will serve to break the Oilers Index above the BLUE line

FUTURES

Published 9th Jan 2016

THE OIL SECTOR ! (NMX0530) With a bunch of oil producers making a recent run for glory, it's probably worthwhile looking at the sector index, the sexily named FTSE:NMX0530. Thankfully, the index tends explain why a few oilers recent price rises feel like they are running out of fuel.

As always, it's a BLUE line causing trouble and currently this is pencilled in at roughly 8642.354 points. The index is currently trading around 8531 points and needs CLOSE above BLUE to signal further happy days ahead for the oil sector. Such an event will suggest coming growth toward 9132 points initially with secondary 10523 points. Of course, this level of largesse is rather likely to be quite kind to many sector constituents.

For now, we suspect some stutters can be expected and obviously, this will tend effect members of the sector which have recently approached - or bettered - many initial big picture targets. BP for instance has mildly bettered our 515p whereas Tullow still is sneaking up on our 356p. As for Sirius (SRSP), goodness knows!

The growth cycle the oil sector has experienced since the start of 2016 currently suggests NMX0530 needs drip below 7680 points. About the only sensible early warning of trouble will be weakness below this level as it permits an initial 7350 points with secondary a more painful 6890. The more important detail for the oil marketplace would be reversal such as this trashing many sector members growth potentials.

Tomorrow, we'll take another look at the price of BRENT from a Big Picture perspective.

FUTURES

Published 8th Jan 2016

FTSE for the Week & SIRIUS PETROL AGAIN! (FTSE:UKX LSE:SRSP) Sirius Pet (LSE:SRSP) managed to provoke a shedload of emails due to its 49% intraday volatility following our article on the 5th. Importantly, the share has managed closure above the immediate downtrend and therefore, we're supposed to embrace optimism.

To get the good news out of the way before we allow reality to rear its ugly head, Sirius Pet closed the week in a position where future growth to 2.1p is possible with secondary 3.5p. If a slowdown is planned, trading below 1.10 would alarm us given it carries the threat of a bounce from around 1p. And if the drop is real rather than a slowdown, 0.825 is the secondary. The spoiler obviously is this would take the share price once again below BLUE, away from the region of hope.

However, share price performance on the 6th was useful as it "proved" we've been watching the correct trend, always something of a relief. In normal trading conditions, we'd not be surprised to see it weaken to 1.1p or so, essentially bonking against the long term BLUE downtrend. Our rulebook thereafter does not allow us to take rises seriously until it starts trading above the high of the 6th which was 1.375 mid-price.

Finally, one thing we were relieved to notice was crucial from our perspective. The chatroom on Interactive Investor is mercifully lacking in evidence of "ramping", always a risk with this sort of miracle share. The price indeed appears to be reacting to a trend with the result we can mention a long term 6p is now seen as a distant influence. We shall revisit SRSP should it better 3.5p in the future as this will prove significant.

FTSE for the Future. Please remember, we're talking about the FTSE during trading hours and NOT FTSE FUTURES. Though, in honesty, we're rarely surprised if targets are met on FUTURES once the UK market closes at 4.30pm.

As headlines continue to exhaust adjectives to describe the market trading higher than at any point, our bucket of tea leaves continue to give 7358 as the next major point of interest, around which some "proper" volatility is expected. This remains interesting given the immediate cycle points at movement above 7211 is now supposed to achieve an initial near term 7272 with secondary, if bettered, at 7320 points.

This obviously takes the market into the region where we suspect SHORT positions will become pretty valid but the "however" comes if the market finds any excuse to gap the index upward at the open. This is liable to foul our numbers (again) as it will become probable "the market" wants to better 7358 without too many amateur dramatics.

We'd be failing our duty, if we ignored the possibility of a slowdown. The market closed the short trading week at 7210 and need only slump below 7180 to break the immediate uptrend and signal the chance of reversal to 7152 points. As with our thoughts on Friday, only if below 7152 will be concern justified as our secondary is now at 7135 points. But of course, the RED line illustrates the uptrend since the start of December and for real panic, the market now needs below 7135 as we get to mention 7100.

For now, we lean toward optimism (aka gullibility) and suspect the 7300 region will make an appearance...

RANDOM FUTURES

Published 5th Jan 2016

FTSE for FRIDAY, FREE FERRARI, and SIRIUS Pet too! (FTSE:UKX, NYSE:RACE, LSE:SRSP) We've chosen this oddball grouping, simply 'cos the FTSE is pretty boring at present - no surprise as for many lucky sods, the Xmas holiday continues until next Monday.

The FTSE closed Thursday at 7189 and near term, anything below 7173 is supposed to provoke 7152 points. While the 21 point potential is fairly interesting, the "tell" will come if 7152 breaks as it implies weakness and the threat of 7125 making an appearance as a potential bounce point. The market would require breaking RED - currently 7025 - to justify a raised eyebrow.

Annoyingly, the market is supposed to be going up but in the last few sessions we've seen every upward surge arrested around 1/2 way to target. This tends imply considerable restraint is being applied but there's little doubt anything now above 7212 will lead to 7227 initially with secondary 7248 points. Oddly, given the underlying force is toward a longer term 7358 points, this even makes sense in an obscure way.

SIRIUS PETROLEUM (LSE:SRSP) was one we last looked at in 2014 (link here) and we'd given an "ultimate bottom" of 1.8p. Needless to say, in the two years since, the share price has broken below this bottom level and explored the delights of a 0.2p share. But importantly, it's still trading and recently has been experiencing some reasonable percentages in what seems an unrelenting recovery.

The immediate price cycle shows a target of 1.125p which is fairly interesting given it collides with the downtrend since 2011. What's fairly important - its currently trading around 0.92p - is closure above 1.125 moves the share into a region where the numbers claim the price has officially stopped going down. Instead, it makes the transit into a region where positive news can drive 2.1p initially, perhaps even 3.5p if a miracle is involved!

FERRARI (NYSE:RACE) This has finally achieved our 60 level, something we'd hoped for while last years F1 season drove to its conclusion. Our last glance at Ferrari (link here) in November actually proposed a number for the future above 60 with a longer term secondary 66. However, we tend suspect some hesitation around the current 60 level as it matches the high at the shares launch. Essentially, a bunch of folk who invested in October 2015 will probably opt to get their investment back with no profit, just a story to tell about a Ferrari which crashed once bought!

However, with closure above 61, it seems probable the price shall accelerate toward 66 next. And if they opt to start winning F1 races, it's easy to see 76 coming into focus in the future!

Finally, the thick RED line is at 47.5 currently. Any circumstances capable of reversing Ferrari below this level justifies' a fair degree of panic as it could easily presage a campaign chasing the circled manipulation gaps!

FUTURES

Published 4th Jan 2016

NEXT PLC (LSE:NXT) & GBP v EUR This provided some "back to reality" dramatics with a pretty large drop during the session. Some caution is advised as the share price really cannot afford reductions below 4060p. The problem is shown in RED on the chart below!

We've opted to ignore the "Brexit Day" drop, 'cos invariably trends have ignored this brief manipulation. But curiously, the gap down due to whatever news was released took full cognisance of the historical RED trend since 2009 with the price carefully being gapped below and presumably, a new trend commenced.

As a result, should NEXT find an excuse to close a session below 4060, reversal toward 3775 initially seems probable with secondary, if (when) broken at 3227p.

In the event the price finds its way toward 3227p, we'd tend expect a bounce as there's clear air beyond such a point and "ultimate bottom" of 650p. Common sense suggests the 650p thing is probably a bit silly as it would tend demand a flow of grotty news to justify the share returning to 2002 prices!

For now, we've little choice but to suspect 3227p will make an appearance. To give early warning this notion is stupid, the price needs better 4390p currently - or 5000p (BLUE) if a return to growth is expected.

Finally, we'd be remiss if we didn't comment on a brief move at the end of 2016, when the share price made its way to 4999p. This appears to be a sucker movement, a nod above the immediate BLUE downtrend designed to fool traders into thinking the price was about to change direction. At the time of this movement, BLUE was at roughly 4944p and so there can be no doubt a bunch of folk experienced a surge of adrenaline, thinking NEXT was about to recover. Unfortunately, despite a lingering suspicion the nice people who move prices were expecting some grotty news, this movement is why we prefer insist on "Higher Highs" before daring take a trend break seriously.

Hopefully the company have some pixy dust left over from their Xmas sales.

GBPEUR is showing early signs of something interesting. Currently trading around 1.18, in the event of the pairing bettering 1.207 a LONG position toward an initial 1.25 makes sense, maybe even 1.30 if gifted steel spherical objects for Christmas. If triggered, stop is a bit wide at 1.69 currently.

RANDOM FUTURES

Published 3rd Jan 2016

FTSE for 2017 (FTSE:UKX)  As we'd expected, the UK market is now painting new highs and regarded as heading toward 7301 next with secondary 7348 points. To utterly stuff these potentials, the market needs slither below 6850 points. This would be an excellent time to sit down as the next proposal is a bit hairy.

We've a pretty fair expectation of some volatility in the 7300's as the current situation projects CLOSURE above 7348 with 7520 next and secondary at a fruitcake 8190 points. The reason for our "volatility" argument is basically quite a lot of scepticism as there's essentially free air between the 7350 point and 8200. Given we deal with real life, a near 1,000 point relentless climb seems unlikely.

Are we really oozing optimism for the future?

It's quite hard to deny "usual" rules paint a picture of considerable confidence and if the FTSE were a share, we'd be pretty comfortable it intends head ultimately to 8750 on the current movement cycle. The parameter to trash this potential is a need for the market to drop below the thick RED line on the chart below, currently around 5850 points. Unfortunately, this gives the current movement cycle one heck of a lot of bandwidth to play with before we'd be really concerned. Thankfully, aside from Brexit and the US president, there's nothing on the immediate horizon capable of introducing chaos...

Near term, the acceleration curve for December needs the market to slip below 7110 simply to drop out the immediate growth phase and hint at weakness to 7070 initially with secondary 6970. We're inclined to take these potentials with a pinch of salt, given the upward strength being shown. Perhaps, if the market does indeed get below 7110 and hits - AND BREAKS - 7070 points, it will give early warning the underlying force is running out. But for now, we'd not be too confident with short positions. Not until the market is in the 7300's.

FUTURES

Prior Months:

January 2017

December16 DOW JONES AO WORLD Ebay SIRIUS BMR Sirius Ferrari Next GBPEUR LLOYDS DIAGEO

November16 Includes FlyBe FastJet Johnston Press SKY Ferrari Rockhopper Lloyds Barclays RBS Sirius BMR Vodafone AMUR Minerals Chesnara Provexis

October16 Includes FTSE GBPEUR RBS Barclays The Dow Jones Ferrari Lloyds GOLD Strategic Minerals BMR PLUS500 DOW AGAIN Gulf Keystone Hurricane Countrywide Vodafone Zoldav

Sept16: Includes Range Resources Highland Natural Resources Cloudtag Tern Kodal UK Oil & Gas Gulf Keystone Hurricane Sirius Barclays San Leon Solo Chariot Sepura 88 Energy Gulf Keystone BMR Forbidden Tech HNR Sound Deutsche Bank Ferrari Twitter

August16 - includes Firstgroup Cobham Drax Edinburgh JimmyChoo Barclays Lloyds WilliamHill OilSector ProtonPower RBS DirectLine BMR JustEat BancaMonteDeiPaschidiSiena SiriusMinerals DixonsCarphone FERRARI Google SanLeon  WMIH  GulfKeystone