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Published 31/05/17 

GB POUND v US DOLLAR (GBPUSD) "Giant Asteroid to wipe out entire planet", an Express / Mail / FT type of headline where the devil will be in the details. It could be next week, it could be a million years ahead, it might just be a movie. Unfortunately, many of the financial gurus resort to this sort of nonsense even when tweeting and it's really irritating knowing we're about to be deluged with email questions.

Recently it has been the GBP USD relationship driving people slightly nuts as it appears on each occasion Mrs May is perceived as doing or saying something silly, some pundit oozes out from under a rock, publishes a chart, and foretells a grotty future. Thankfully, there are signs the idiots who cry wolf at every excuse are becoming more shrill as they appreciate the public are not paying attention. Except, of course, those on Twitter who slavishly retweet anything which matches their particular bias.

And so, this should be a cracker! We're now taking the GBPUSD relationship sliding to 0.57 fairly seriously!

To utterly cancel the prospect, the pairing needs better 1.4 and currently it's quite a bit below. The real problem comes from a report we published at the start of April when we'd given the pairing an immediate target of 1.30, something it achieved but completely failed to better despite repeated attempts. While above 1.30 signals the potential of 1.35 initially with secondary, if bettered, at 1.49, the lack of upward integrity gives us a real problem.

At time of writing, the pair are trading at 1.289 and we'd have some pretty real concerns should it now slip below 1.274 as 1.248 appears probable very quickly. Secondary, if such a point breaks, comes in at 1.20.

Critically, achieving 1.20 would tend equal the previous lows with the result anything below is very capable of provoking parity. Unfortunately, when we zoom out and view 40 years of squabbles, parity seems not the end of the story as our software reports 0.57 as a point at which the relationship must bounce.

FUTURES

Published 30/05/17

RED ROCK, COAL OF AFRICA, and CONDOR GOLD (LSE:RRR, LSE:CZA, LSE:CNR)  One of these stupid philosophy questions, "if a tree falls in the forest, does it make a sound if no-one hears it?" sprung to mind when walking the dogs. With a sound like two shotgun blasts, a large pine tree snapped when assaulted by a very slight breeze. My two Golden Retrievers discovered warp speed despite me being rooted in place at the sudden spectacle - 100 yards away.

The only thing faster than the speed of this tree fall is an AIM share dropping in price - whereas expecting growth at similar speed is usually an exercise in futility. We've chosen three shares to decorate our headline section, simply due to all of them now giving recovery potentials. Of course, we've also been getting emailed too.

CONDOR GOLD is looking slightly interesting at present. At risk of slipping into "teacher" mode, the dashed blue line is perhaps the real trend despite the solid blue line presenting itself as the trend. Bringing us to this point of view is the share price' movements since breaking dashed blue as it has gone up - and down - but critically shown some respect for this historical line. The situation now appears to be of growth bettering 68p taking the price into a region where 106p makes an initial ambition. Secondary, if bettered, is a longer term 136p. Of course, there's only one caveat.

"You'd be daft taking the foregoing at face value!"

The pink barbed wire line on the chart at 75p is probably quite important. Closure above this point will visually prove crucial in confirming the share has commenced some proper recovery. Ideally, if we through timeframe logic at it, closure above 75p shall occur sometime in the next few months as it will also better the BLUE downtrend. Only then does the 106 / 136 thing become serious.

COAL OF AFRICA is a bit of a weird share, one which we hear nothing about for a year or so - then suddenly a bunch of folk remember it exists. Certainly something seems to be happening and now above 3.25p points at 3.625 next and a probable bonk against the downtrend since 2015. However, above 3.625p opens a new field for play as it's easy to extrapolate a longer term surge to 5.5p.

Currently at 3.25p, the price would need break 1.925 to give an excuse to panic, really panic as 1.25 becomes a best guess bottom!

RED ROCK is one of these shares which spring to mind when discussing how absolutely rotten the AIM market can be. Certainly, the collapse in price since 2010 has become the stuff of infamy but moves in the last week justify a raised eyebrow. In a nice way... Hopefully there isn't a ramping team at work in one of the disreputable internet chat areas.

The immediate situation suggests anything now above 0.9675p should bring growth to an initial 1.64p with secondary a rather more useful 2.98p.

Currently trading at 0.925, the price would need break 0.42p to justify hysterics. In the event of it making 1.64p, we'll issue a more in-depth report.

FUTURES

Published 29/05/17 

FTSE FOR THE WEEK (FTSE:UKX) An unexpected call to assist with a pre-demolition survey was to provide one of the more enjoyable holiday weekends ever experienced. An absurd qualification, forgotten for years, taken to give assistance to a chum was to provide an all expenses fun weekend in the north of Scotland. A journey involving multiple ferries, ridiculous alcohol quantities, finished with the pair of us driving off-road to a long closed business housed in a massive shed far beyond the back of beyond.

The funny thing, despite the size of the building, it was essentially just one big room requiring measured, photographed, and the building method & materials described. After just 3 hours, we were finally ready to head back to what passes for civilisation. (If holidaying in Scotland, do it May/June for best weather btw)

What does a booze fuelled weekend on a remote Scottish island have to do with the markets?

Being asked to assist this project (probably being thought of as a friendly native guide) was interesting when regaled with details of their workload. And this is important, perhaps very important, as their workload is always a pretty reasonable quantifier of the economy. After all, if companies are knocking stuff down to build new stuff, even in an incredibly remote situation such as this, it bodes well for the UK economy. It was telling back in 2006 this company experienced a drop-off in work due to regeneration slowing down well before the crash became a "thing". And so, having enjoyed a day to recover from a hangover, it's still worth pondering this company remains overwhelmed with work - it allows us to remain positive about the FTSE for the future.

From the point at which the market closed the 26th, it appears growth now bettering 7555 should now continue to 7570 points with secondary, if bettered, at 7630 points. There appears some sort of bunching of potentials around the 7630-7650 point with the result we suspect some flatulence can be expected if this level is actually achieved. Only with market closure above 7644 does our software allow us to now mention a longer term 7765 points as a point where some serious turbulence can be expected.

The immediate uptrend since April requires the FTSE below 7443 to suggest the pace of ascent has eased. As a result, this shall make a sensible place for a stop loss if believing in the big picture ambition of 7765 points. But we'll concede it is a blooming wide position.

If below 7443 points, it appears weakness toward 7357 enters the picture with secondary, if broken, at a less visually likely 7222 points.

FUTURES

Published 25/05/17 

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX)  The turmoil of the past week has not, perhaps amazingly, been reflected on the markets. However, with other events throughout Europe, similar resilience has been shown by markets with the somewhat worrying concept of markets becoming "used" to terrorism. We'll prefer take the mindset there's a lot of 'stiff upper lip' going on with the unpleasant background being peoples death do not effect economic considerations.

The last four days have shown several suggestions the market wanted a near term drop but on each occasion the FTSE threatened a trigger, it quickly recoiled upward. The situation now exists of movement above 7530 allowing for an initial realistic 7571 points with secondary, if bettered, at a rather less likely 7635 points. If triggered, stop needs be below 7506 points.

As always, we've a "however" and it came from the point the index closed on Thursday at 7518 points. Visually it broke an immediate uptrend and we're supposed to be concerned. Given the underlying strength being shown by the market, our inclination is to suggest caution on any short unless the index actually (not in the opening second) trades below 7498 points as this permits weakness toward 7480. Secondary, if broken, comes in at 7460 points. If triggered, stop can be at 7528.

Please do remember we're talking about the FTSE above and not out of hours futures. Sometimes, quite a substantial difference in potentials will occur!

Have a good holiday weekend.

FUTURES

Published 24/05/17 

FLYBE GROUP (LSE:FLYB) & FERRARI (NYSE:RACE)  FlyBe has been following a pretty solidly defined glide path since 2011 with the price being, frankly, quite boring. The current BLUE downtrend is at roughly 40.128p with a clear suggestion should the share better this level, it's perhaps moving into takeoff territory. But for now, we suspect it faces a hard landing once we exhaust all flight related clichés!

As the chart shows, the price has retreated below the RED uptrend which, while being very recent, is about the only sane marker of strength. Or perhaps lack of strength as the situation now suggests weakness below 37p should continue to 34p and ideally a bounce. But in the event 34p breaks, it appears the price almost must recoil from the 30p level.

This is why the BLUE downtrend is so crucial as it appears to give a fairly reasonable gauge as to whether any take-off is liable to remain airborne.

For the insanely brave - or perhaps just the insane - the price can already be regarded as "in the zone" as allegedly, the 3p difference between current and the potential bounce level of 34p isn't that big a deal assuming some research justifies confidence in the company future. It results in the situation where above 40.128p allows an initial 44p with secondary, if (when) bettered at 50p. This, of course, is a sodding nuisance as it tends indicate a maximum altitude for the near term given the effort employed to stop it bettering 50p earlier this year.  Common sense therefore indicates we need see this actually CLOSE above 50p before daring assume the price intends serious longer term heights as we can now calculate a ceiling of 88p in such an event.

For now though, hopefully 34p is the bounce point. Visually, of course, fans of double bottoms will tend expect 30p.

FERRARI (NYSE:RACE)  Ferrari have been experiencing a degree of success in Formula One but it's still unclear whether this impacts the share price. Thankfully the price has met all our upward targets and now, appears floundering around with the charming innocence of a group of political candidates completely unaware of which name is going to be called as winner. The key number for Ferrari is 86p.

The issue with 86p is simple - it represents the highest the price can achieve given its acceleration from the 31p low of 2016. We rather like these ceiling levels as common sense alone will suggest should Ferrari close a session above 86p, it enters an entirely new race track and we cannot immediately divine any future targets. This state of affairs is far from uncommon amongst USA share prices when we find ourselves awaiting some volatility before being able calculate the future.

In plain English, if Ferrari closes above 86p, go long and wait. Just don't expect any immediate input from ourselves.

Any slowdown would be indicated by traffic below 70p currently but realistically the price needs break RED at 55p before we'd dare express interest in reversals.

FUTURES

Published 23/05/17 

SIRIUS MINERALS (LSE:SXX) Our prior Sirius outlook (link here) expressed some doubts, verging on hysteria, that Sirius actually CLOSE a session above 31p to permit confidence for the future.  It certainly managed the lame move from 23 to our initial 26p target without much drama but aside from providing a textbook case of "this is why we give two targets" by reversing from 26p, the share price has since managed similar integrity to Mrs May's firm policy statements - temporary at best!

In theory, movements now above just 29p should provoke 31p near term with secondary, if bettered, at 35p.

Unfortunately, once again we're still demanding the share actually close above 31p and for a change, we'll explain the logic. Circled on the chart is a manipulation gap in price movements at 37p. When the share price was forced downward, it created a set of circumstances which insist the price now needs actually CLOSE a session above 31p to exhaust price movements since it was opened at 30p on November 2nd last year. By actually CLOSING above 31p, we're able to factor in forces from the period when the share was trading up to 51p with these able to impart oomph for some quite strong growth, hence our longer term pencil marks at 47 and beyond.

Our worry currently is the lack of commitment being given toward 31p but to be realistic, the share price needs drill below 24p to justify any real concern at the lack of growth. This scenario looks capable of triggering an initial 22p with secondary 17p and the suggestion of a bonk against the long term uptrend.

For now, we're probably being silly as exquisite care was taken recently to cover manipulation gaps created from 27.25p so it's probably just a matter of patience. And crossed fingers...

FUTURES

Published 22/05/17 

GAME DIGITAL (LSE:GMD) & #Nutters Hashtag Nutters is a reference to ourselves and a favourite area of irritation. The "Alphabet Game" which the stock market often indulges; earlier alphabet entries being more active, has once again made itself known. In shares we monitor, 131 "A-M" shares feature against just 81 "N-Z" stocks so far in May. The conclusion remains, if you want a faster mover then look at the first half of the alphabet.

GAME DIGITAL (LSE:GMD) has experienced a pretty torrid time over the last few years, proving an early entry in the alphabet does NOT mean fast growth, just faster movement regardless of direction! The situation now is a bit fragrant as the price dare not - from our perspective - close below 40p as it tends make travel to 20p almost inevitable. Perhaps of greater concern is we cannot calculate a secondary without using minus signs. The conclusion therefore is should this appear at 20p, some sort of punt is possible in the hope of a bounce but it's dangerous.

Some slight hope can be taken from BLUE on the chart as, despite the share price sleep walking through the trend, it has only experienced a 6p range in the period since. Perhaps BLUE will prove to be valid as anything now above 47p should provide an initial 53p with secondary, if bettered, at a longer term 61p. As always, there's a necessary limit to our optimism as the price ideally needs an excuse to better the prior bonk against the trend at 69p before we'll gush enthusiastically about its future.

For now, about the nicest we dare suggest comes from movements through most of January where a glass ceiling was poured at 60p. Perhaps closure above this level will prove an early harbinger of good times ahead.

FUTURES

Published 21/05/17

FTSE FOR THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX) If needing cheered up as a result of the deluge of political drivel, why not try adding technical indicators to charts. Like Christmas Tree ornaments they cheer up an otherwise boring outlook - except for one rather important detail which is now making itself known. We DO NOT use any technical indicators though if we had to use just one, Stochastic can sometimes prove useful; they do need "tuned" separately for each instrument.

The important detail relating to the FTSE is now a longer term 7720 points.

Unlike election promises, this is obviously not graven in stone but moves in the last week have proven fairly interesting with the Highest High ever on the market, creating the scenario of growth near term above 7535 provoking an initial 7560 which, if bettered, makes 7720 a reasonable competent ambition. The problem?

The FTSE needs slither below 7315 to scupper the chances - which is one heck of a wide stop position.

If trouble is planned in the week ahead, below 7420 looks capable of 7350 initially - not a trend threatening ambition but we'd be alarmed with anything below 7350 as a further 100 points down could quickly make themselves known.

(we've sufficiently amused ourselves and shall refrain from cluttering charts with tech indicators. They don't half look messy and confuse the picture)

FUTURES

Published 18/05/17 

FTSE FOR FRIDAY & GOLD too (FTSE:UKX & GOLD)  We don't usually cover GOLD in this section but something ridiculous happened Thursday which proved worthy of mention. When we issue our lunchtime FUTURES update, sometimes we highlight an item as BOLD to hint it's a complete "no brainer" trade. And sometimes, when we do this, we cover our posterior by giving a contrary view, just in case the market reacts against our projection. Guess what, it did!

Our arse covering exercise was in the form of "If below 1253, short till 1245" with no stop. It was just a thought in case the metal failed to better 1265 and continue to 1268, maybe even 1276 with a following wind. But this isn't what provoked absolute panic.

We've a few "usual suspects" who get in touch during the trading session but when GOLD melted below 1253 at around 3pm, a few clients who generally never touch GOLD with a bargepole emailed. And of course, the usual adrenaline junkies also dropped a line, asking the same question our generally sensible clients asked. And a couple of clients who never email (presumably taking our output as gospel, something we do not approve of) also appeared, again asking an important question.

"Where's the stop; I've entered this trade?"

Abruptly, an almost throwaway calculation became one of the most stressful things encountered as, from our perspective, we now knew real people were trading real money with the result GOLD HAD to get to 1245. We now were perfectly aware which clients risked getting burned if we were wrong.

The next few hours were a nightmare as the metal decided to behave in a similar fashion to a dog, returning from the vet while still under the influence of a general anaesthetic. Straight lines were not to be a strong point. Shown below, a chart which makes almost no sense.

We opted to suggest the stop position should be 1265 but, for the brave, it was possible 1259 would suffice, this being a prior uptrend at point of entry.

On the first surge, GOLD dropped to 1249 - exactly 1/2 way to target and generally the point where, if we take the time to express a trade properly, we'd recommend a fast exit. Of course, this critical information had been kept to ourselves and once it bounced from 1249, a bunch of emails arrived from nervous traders with the volume turning up once it bettered their entry level. About the only thing giving us hope (considerable hope) was the metal had not regained the prior uptrend and despite 1253 being repeatedly teased, the ruling pressure was down. But the bloody stuff refused to drop!

Eventually, we ended watching the DOW & SP500, trying to correlate influences as it was becoming clear GOLD was not going down 'cos the DOW had not started going up. This resulted in the situation where we could say - with minimal confidence - GOLD would drop sharply when the DOW bettered 20668.

Thankfully, both events happened and we sent a bunch of emails warning the final drop was under way.

An eight dollar drop, four hours of stress and we're still giggling at the nightmare.

Finally, if you've read this far, thanks. Above 1264.89 currently and a rise to 1276 looks like it shall make sense. But if the stuff gets to 1286, go short and wait. With a tight stop.

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX)  There's been a very obvious MAY uptrend and below 7400 points now breaks it, taking the market into territory where 7336 makes sense. Secondary is at 7200 points and nope, we don't believe it either. If interested, the required stop is at 7485 points but we'd smell a rat unless any drop makes it below Thursdays low of 7389 points.

However, given Thursday after hours performance, if the FTSE itself betters 7446 points, it appears near term movement toward 7465 is possible and realistic. Secondary calculates at exactly 7500 - which is just a bit weird. If triggered, the tightest stop looks like 7400 points.

FUTURES

Published 17/05/17 

HOWDEN JOINERY (LSE:HWDN) Every now and then, we get a bunch of emails asking about a share we tend ignore. Sometimes, this grouping of interest can suggest news is brewing, sometimes it suggests someone is talking rubbish in discussion forums. And sometimes it's because it's a bank and we've ignored it again. Howdens is perhaps presenting a different picture, one worth keeping an eye on.

To get the glaringly obvious out of the way, the big circle on the chart - the Brexit manipulation gap - continues to irritate as these movements the morning after the vote did more harm to the markets than most politicians can aspire, all on the basis that nothing had actually happened (yet). Howdens still have not recovered above the price level pre-manipulation, needing better 510p before we dare suspect the market has admitted it overacted with the drop.

The price situation with Howden is it needs below 336p to inspire concern, along with a cut down to 300p initially with secondary a very possible bounce point around 235p. Visually any warning of such a calamity will be weakness below RED, 400p at time of writing.

However, we shall be more interested if it manages better 479p anytime soon as a cycle starts toward an initial boring 526p. It's the secondary, if such a level is beaten, which is of special interest as it comes in at 585p. This would represent a new all time high for the share, something we've droned on about recently when the FTSE started achieve Higher Highs. In the case of Howden Joinery, the implication becomes a distant attraction from 641p. If wishing to embrace sanity and safety with this scenario, waiting until the share actually starts closing sessions above 531p will confirm the Higher High argument.

FUTURES

Published 16/05/17

Legend has it, Scotland once played Brazil in a World Cup game and a Scottish footballer scored the first goal. He was berated by his team mates for "making them angry". The FTSE appeared to experience similar emotion when it broke into the 7500's with the result after hours futures have been a laugh with - at time of writing - a ridiculous 8 point range in 4 hours. If the market could talk, would it say "I didn't mean to break 7500...?" Or is it a lure for folks to open shorts?

In our outlook for the week ahead, we'd given 7509 as one of our mumbo jumbo numbers, a theoretical thing the market needed trade above for us to take any rise seriously. The index closed at 7522 points, so we need take it seriously and update our outlook after just two days. The situation now, from a Big Picture viewpoint (ie, not in the first hour of trading tomorrow) moves above 7534 look capable of 7574 next with secondary 7632.

The FTSE is behaving with extraordinary strength currently. We'd advocated 7480 as a major point of interest, quote; "one of these levels we tend suspect some turbulence around." With characteristic smugness, we saw the index hit 7480 at 8:45am and immediately retreat, fulfilling our prophecy neatly with a death spiral of just 10 points. At 10am, it bettered 7480 again and didn't look back aside for a six minute pause at our 7509 level.

We didn't feel complete chumps as, thankfully, we'd remembered to warn of the dangers attempting shorts in a "higher high" marketplace.

Are there any drop dead obvious places where a short becomes viable?

When we view acceleration since the start of May, the visuals suggest 7428 is currently a level the market regards important with weakness below suggesting 7385 initially with secondary 7335 points.

And of course, we've a however. Given everyone and their dog are probably rushing into short positions as "everyone" knows the market must retrace to "test" this or that, this is the FTSE and it's perfectly capable of NOT doing what everyone and their dog thinks. And so, again, be careful with shorts as the land of Higher Highs has a dress code and nasty sense of humour. The big picture now claims 7632 is a serious ambition.

FUTURES

Published 15/05/17 

MYSQUAR (LSE:MYSQ) Zombie movies ARE NOT Sci-Fi. Who-ever confuses listings by including Zombie rubbish should be taken outside to be eaten by Scottish Midges. Equally, people who use MYSQL ARE NOT programmers any more than spreadsheet users are software gods. Two pet hates, one generated by searching Google for info on this share code, the other from trying to find a good Sci-Fi book. Google really wants to pollute its response with MYSQL information rather than MySquar Limited PLC results.

Grump over - though we can opinion "One Second After" as a good zombie free read...

MySquar provoked quite a few emails recently and it visually appears CLOSURE above 6p is a prime requisite if planning for future growth. In fact, even closure above 5.75p triggers the law of High Highs and permits some optimism. Given at time of writing, the share is trading at 5.89p and has experienced a day high of 6.25p, it's possible by the time the market closes it shall move into happy altitudes but experience tends suggest it will take a few attempts.

Closure above the 6p point - illustrated with a pink barbed wire line - and we'll tend anticipate continued growth toward 8p next and some possible stutters. Secondary, if such a point is bettered, comes in at a longer term 10.5p and the guarantee of stutters given it matches the shares prior high. There's little doubt folks who've seen their funds take an extended holiday since early 2016 will bail at break even (BABE) rather than risk further entrapment. In fact, this generally becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

Only with CLOSURE above 10.125p, its prior all time highs, can we admit a distant attraction showing at just under 18p.

Finally, we cannot forget this is the UK market, blessed with a sense of humour and larceny. The current rising cycle was goosed into life when the share was forced above BLUE at 2.9p. If trouble is coming, weakness below 4.5p would elevate our eyebrows as this allows an initial 3.5p. Then we've a major problem as the secondary calculates at 1p - not only covering the manipulation gap but also trashing the company share price potentials. If any attempt is made to cover this gap, about the best we can hope is it commences with the price being gapped down at the open, throwing a spanner into our immediate computations.

FUTURES

Published 14/05/17 

FTSE FOR THIS COMING WEEK (FTSE:UKX)  As the UK General Election draws ever closer, the FTSE continues to exhibit surprising degrees of optimism. If it were a share, we'd assume it to be in the "Buy on The Rumour, Sell on The News" phase of movement. Or in other words, regardless who wins this election we should expect a tumble afterwards.

There are two important numbers currently (7480 and 7508) worthy of some examination.

From an immediate perspective, it seems movement on the FTSE above 7436 is expected to bring 7480 as a pretty major point of interest, one of these levels we tend suspect some turbulence around. When we gaze at the tea leaves, the market needs better 7508 to cancel the suspicion of turbulence and thus, if feeling brave, opening a short of 7480 makes some sense with a stop fairly tight at 7508. At time of writing, we've no idea how much turbulence can be expected but generally these things present themselves as a pretty reliable time for the market to attempt a bonk against the immediate uptrend - around the 7400 point.

As always, there's something else to consider.

We're almost wilfully ignoring an important facet to this scenario. Once the market betters 7447, we're in the situation where the FTSE is (again) trading higher than ever before and the land if Higher Highs tends change everything. This is why we felt the need to slip 7508 into the conversation as the situation now exists that should the FTSE trade above 7508, it moves into a new gear with 7632 presenting itself as the next major turbulence point.

For now, be careful with shorts would be our opinion.

What happens if the FTSE breaks 7400 points?

Apparently, we should mention weakness to an initial 7355 points. And if this level breaks, our secondary comes in at a suspicious looking 7300.99 points. Visually, the stop level - if 7400 breaks - is quite absurd at just 7411 points. We don't entirely believe it but it tends solidify the notion the market remains in a pretty solid uptrend for now.

Of course, regardless who actually wins this election, we shall tend anticipate some reversals simply due to "The News" phase of the movement cycle. Remember, this analysis relates to THE FTSE and not FTSE Futures.

FUTURES

Published 11/05/17 

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) This week on the FTSE has been pretty interesting and a bit rubbish too. For some reason, the market has found our 7385 a fascinating concept, managing closure at this level twice. At least it proved we're watching the correct trend but we just wish the market would close above this level. The risk of this malaise, from a software perspective, is future moves proving half hearted should the market actually now better 7400 points.

As always, please remember we're talking about the FTSE during trading hours and NOT outside hours futures.

Perhaps the 7385 nonsense may prove valuable as generally the 3rd time a trend is challenged is the charm. It results in the situation where anything near term above this weeks highs of 7400 should present 7439 as the initial ambition, maybe even 7480 if such a level is bettered.  Our worry comes from the hesitation the market is showing in painting new highs as the FTSE is perfectly capable of producing a fake upward movement, probably at the open of trading to trigger a bunch of orders. After all, anyone blessed with eyes will have figured out the 7400 level has proven an intraday issue recently and we'd suspect quite a few orders await being triggered. Our preference would be to use the circled 7409 of a month ago as a safe trigger - yes, it reduces the profit but it also reduces the likelihood of the FTSE saying "thanks for the order" with an opening surge before reversing to say "thanks for the stop loss too". Visually, the tightest sane stop loss should be at 7309 which is just a touch uncomfortable.

No-one ever said the market is fair. It IS in business to make money, after all - this being something people tend forget.

On the flip side of the coin, if the FTSE manages stumble below 7369, it appears weakness to 7348 makes some sense. Perhaps not the most attractive trade but if triggered the stop can be 7394 points. Secondary, if 7348 breaks, is at a more attractive 7324 points - yet another number which should be familiar to regular readers. Despite our utter fascination with numbers, we remain like a politician caught in a lie, utterly unable to explain why it happened.

Finally, the FTSE appears to have regained the BREXIT uptrend and what's more, is respecting it - as shown on the CLOSING PRICE chart insert. If the market were a share, we'd be pushing open "the door marked summer!"

FUTURES

Published 10/05/17 

LLOYDS BANK (LSE:LLOY) By far, the most common item emailed regards the Retail Banks, so it's time to step back and remember the song "Bring on the Clowns". Lloyds, by closing TWO sessions at 70p has left us aghast with apathy for its future as it's supposed to be going up!

The key issue was closure above 68.84p, a feat the share has accomplished and better still, reached the dizzy heights of 70.7p in the period since. Suffice to say, we are not amused but do take assurance from the price' behaviour in respecting BLUE on the chart. Currently the price would need CLOSE a session below 68.7p to trash the historic blue trend and spoil any immediate optimism as reversal toward 65.7p could soon follow. Or even 62.5p if the market develops a real sense of humour and opts to play "hunt the circled gap!"

However, despite slipping in a bit of misery above, we're inclined to take heart from the respect shown toward BLUE and tend suspect the current political shambles which is the UK dampens such a vulnerable subjects potentials. Or perhaps it's Noel Edmunds suing 'em in the hope of regaining his stature as a great something or other.

If we opt to abandon caution and treat Lloyds Banking Group PLC as a proper share, the current big picture situation suggests movements now above 70.7p should prove capable of generating an initial 81p with secondary, if bettered, at 92p. There is a critically important detail worth mentioning (again) and visually it's around the 75p mark where we've painted a pink barbed wire line. For some reason, on three prior occasions, the market has found this price level important and we'd really want the share to close above this level before allowing blind optimism to enter the equation.

For now, it certainly has potential but a lack of any certainty - from our jaundiced perspective.

FUTURES

Published 09/05/17 

LAURA ASHLEY (LSE:ALY) Earlier this year, we proposed a basket of "ISA" shares with Laura Ashley (Report link here) mentioned, along with the criteria it needed before being sane. Our group of shares are collectively showing at 16.4% UP but we're painfully aware some folk will have bought ALY as a 'punt' and the share continues to avoid trigger levels with similar atelicity to Theresa May and interviewers questions.

The share appears now on the final glide slope to 11.5p, maybe even 9p AND remember we cannot calculate below such a level. When viewing the big picture, it's probably fair to treat the recent lows of 13p as hopefully sufficiently close to bottom.

So, what does it need to prove any upward surge is genuine?

Our price calculation tool advises the share needs above 18.379p currently to be taken seriously. A movement such as this is liable to generate an initial 20.5p with secondary, if bettered, at 26p. Or perhaps even 33p if solid positive news drives any rise, challenging the high of 2015.

But for now, it's stuffed and as long as it remains below that BLUE line, risks being in the discontinued section of the clothing rack. We should point out, just 'cos we run out of fingers below 9p, it doesn't mean the share cannot go lower. It's a "punt" and visually quite risky.

FUTURES

Published 08/05/17 

DRAX GROUP (LSE:DRX) Before getting into the boring stuff relating to DRAX share price, we've a Wheelie Bin panic going on. You know, that horrible awakening at 5am when you remember the Wheelie Bin Gestapo are visiting in an hour and you've forgotten to place their Recycled BLUE suspect on the pavement? Rushing outside - invariably in early morning rain - you wheel the thing down, taking a glance left and right to see anyone else in boxers, t-shirt & trainers. Then see rows of GREEN bins.

That's about how we feel about the markets presently. We "know" there are important indicators flying which are certain to foul up the price of many shares. Brent Crude for instance is trading in a region with ultimate bottom around 31 USD. Whereas GOLD is trading in the 1120 USD bottom region. But the trio of clowns, the Banks, actually "want" to go up in price. So the big question is, will growth in the retail banks balance weakness from the oilies and miners?

It's important to mention neither GOLD nor BRENT have triggered their final drop cycles yet but we're watching in apprehension. On the plus side LLOYDS managed to better 68.84p mentioned last month and thus, is supposed to be going up. We'd suggest, should it experience intraday traffic above 70.7p, a LONG position should prove rewarding whereas a SHORT is liable to leave you walking funny.

As for DRAX. we last covered this in August 2016 (link here) and the price has performed in a fairly interesting fashion. It indeed dropped to our 270p target, actually bouncing pretty convincingly 2p above the ambition. Better still, it managed to better our initial 390p ambition (just) and has been floundering around since. We've little doubt next time it betters Dashed BLUE on the chart - currently 356p - it's will probably stutter again at the 390p level before heading up to 450p as the next major point of interest.

And so, for now, we need examine recent price movements to find if anything near term will indicate a bonk against the Dashed Blue line. There's certainly ample reason to believe anything near term now above 334p should attempt an initial 341p with secondary 352p. The indication therefore is this should prove worth watching in the weeks ahead as 352p is liable to better the downtrend if achieved just before the month end.

Oh, anything capable of drifting the price below 270p entirely spoils future potentials and would require us to again run the numbers against this.

FUTURES

Published 07/05/17 

FTSE FOR THE WEEK (FTSE:UKX)  A misery Monday or a happy Monday? Too often, Mondays are pretty grotty but from the point at which the FTSE finished on Friday we're supposed to be brimming with optimism for the week ahead! The problem is of our own making. We'd suggested if the FTSE closed above 7290, the possibility existed for early warning for a miracle recovery from the current drop to 6750 zone.

The FTSE indeed called our bluff, closing Friday at 7297 and creating a scenario where movement now better than this closing price introduces the market to a region where 7385 becomes possible, perhaps even 7480 in the fullness of time. For the next few days, our 7385 ambition will prove capable of regaining the Brexit vote uptrend, something which generally proves to be a "good thing" as strong and stable growth will often follow thereafter. An encouraging detail came from FTSE futures in after hours trading on Friday as they rather confidently moved into the 7320's.

If trouble is planned, the market now needs breach 7230 to drop out the immediate uptrend as this could easily permit weakness to 7182 points.  And if this number breaks, a further 100 point drop toward 7085 looks probable. Perhaps this shall not prove such a big deal as visually is seems a bounce can be expected at such a level - presumably aimed at keeping the FTSE in line until the General Election results are known.

Cynical? Us?

FUTURES

Published 04/05/17

FTSE for FRIDAY & MINING SECTOR AGAIN Our humourless comment "unless, of course, we've stumbled across the harbinger of gloom for an entire sector." regarding Anglo American returned to bite us on the bum. On Thursday 4th, the mining sector opted to trash itself, pretty firmly in line with AAL's grotty projections.

When the mining sector index (FTSE:NMX1770) closed the session at 13884, it effectively announced some grotty sessions ahead for sector members as the market can now be expected to weaken to 13500 points, perhaps even 13026 if real full fat misery is expected. Any attempt to escape the immediate downtrend requires this index to currently trade above 15070 points (blue)

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) Market movements this week haven't exactly been Strong & Stable. In fact, the Stable door was open, the horse bolted, and a Strong smell of that stuff people spread on their roses remains... (Even comedians don't use their catchphrase as often as the UK PM does)

The FTSE seems to have something going on at the 7220 level as exquisite care is being taken to avoid the market breaching this point. As a result, it appears that should the FTSE manage below 7220 we should anticipate coming weakness toward 7199 points initially with secondary, if broken, at 7172 points.

While perhaps this isn't a "hold the front page" projection, the attractive thing behind the scenario is - somewhat absurdly - the STOP computes at 7225 points. Usually we trust our software but this one's a bit surprising as visually the stop should be around 7268 points if the movement triggers.

The FTSE closed May 4th at 7248 points. Movement now above 7268 is supposed to bring an initial 7298 points with secondary, bettered, at a surprising 7319 points. If triggered, the stop calculates at 7223 points.

Finally, if the market intends now regain its Brexit Uptrend, the FTSE currently need better 7368 points. In fact, if it were to somehow close this week above 7290 points, we'd take this as early warning for interesting times ahead. Otherwise, the market is now trading in a zone where logical bottom calculates at 6750 eventually. Which sucks!

FUTURES

Published 03/05/17

ANGLO AMERICAN (LSE:AAL) and even BMR stuff. Sometimes, it's difficult finding ideas for our daily blurb, other times - like now - we find ourselves trying to restrain from writing a book. Tonight's problem started when we decided to directly compare AAL to the Major Miners Sector index, the well known NMX1770. This was to prove an error, opening the door to a whole range of stupid ideas. Oh, our previous article (link here) merits a Smug Git award!

As, in fact, does the drop on GOLD postulated yesterday. We'd a trigger at 1251 and target 1235. It triggered and went directly to target - a massive GOLD movement worthy of a gold star.

Humour aside, just because you can do something doesn't mean you should do it. But in this instance it may prove important and it's probably going to prove worth paying some attention while we lay out our manifesto for the future of AAL's share price.

Firstly, it has now broken its immediate uptrend since the start of 2016 and calculates with the potential of reversal now to 804p.

Secondly, we're not sold on the concept of coming reversal! Why? This is the reason we could write rather a lot but suffice to say we compared a rather large basket of mining sector shares against the index and AAL were in a substantial minority. The mining sector index has NOT ticked the final box for reversals and can probably be expected to bounce. Of all the shares tested, only Anglo American was signalling coming doom and thus, we smell rodent. Unless AAL intend bumping out grotty news, it's unlikely the share price will experience a full flavoured drop to target. Unless, of course, we've stumbled across the harbinger of gloom for an entire sector.

On the chart, there's a couple of arrows, highlighting AAL has achieved a Lower Low BUT the index hasn't.

Third - and this is the smarty pants bit - the share price actually did achieve our 980p to 1240p ambition during 2016 (a 26% rise btw) and the market opted to gap the price higher before the year end. This suggested a longer term 2115p is now a valid and perhaps distant ambition. Regular readers will know we salivate a bit when prices exceed our target levels due to the implication of strength.

So, having given a drop target, we've attempted explain why we suspect it shall not be achieved. If the mining sector manages below 14067 (currently 14280) we shall of course back-pedal on this opinion. For now, we rather suspect any weakness on AAL will tend rebound from 10 quid but would advise, if taking a LONG position at such a point, for goodness sake check where NMX1770 is at.

For now, any bounce on AAL capable of bettering 1095p looks like trying for 1180 initially with secondary, if bettered, at 1308p.

Finally, we mentioned BMR in the headline. It was one of the shares we ran the numbers against - it's not a Major Miner but a Minor Miner though doubtless with the capability of being blown in the same direction. We suspect, should BMR achieve 5p it shall bounce. The share has experienced a truly ludicrous series of movements with any bounce bettering 7p surely worth taking very seriously for the future.

And if your brain is bleeding having read this far, sorry!

FUTURES

Published 02/05/17

WILLIAM HILL PLC (LSE:WMH) Many thanks for all the emails regarding yesterdays bankers commentary. We felt it needed said, thankfully we were not the only folk irritated. At this part of the political shambles, the media will often resort to reporting "bookies odds" on election results in the absence of opinion polls. As a result, we must assume the betting industry does actually benefit by offering bets on how often someone will say "Strong & Stable" in any given 2 minute interview...

To get the rubbish bit out of the way first, William Hill is trading in a zone where negative news could drive the share price down to 145p in a blink. It needs better 380p just to escape this trading zone. However, as the immediate downtrend implies, there's a slight possibility of good news should it manage above BLUE at 305p anytime soon.

A movement such is this is liable to be significant as visually there's been something going on at the 300p level for some time and a nudge just above points at 323p initially with secondary, if bettered, at a very possible 345p. Or in plain English, it's worth keeping an eye on at least for the next few sessions. Unfortunately, the price ended April by being mangled downward (circled) in a very obvious attempt to stifle upward travel - a move similar to a competitive horse being restrained from starting a race for a few seconds... Except that doesn't happen in real life, only with the stock market it sometimes seems!

If trouble is really planned, the price needs fail below 260p (RED) to justify alarm as it's liable to be a baby step in the direction of 145p ultimately. Who knows, maybe the market has a long term plan?

FUTURES

Published 01/05/17

BARCLAYS, RBS, & FTSE for the week ahead (LSE:BARC LSE:RBS FTSE:UKX) When we refer to the retail banking sector as the 'clown' sector, it's because we've grown to expect such utter nonsense as occurred on the 28th Apr with Barclays & RBS share price.  For a while, the synchronicity of RBS being UP 5.2% while BARC moved DOWN 5.2%  was funny then became the stuff of ridicule and finally irritation.

Really, how are we supposed to believe in a free & fair marketplace with this sort of "utterly random" silliness going on. The amusement generated by the amazing co-incidence of RBS & BARCLAYS mirroring each's intraday movements reminded us sharply of a UK market often appearing beyond the reaches of sanity, yet sadly complaining about the current lack of private investors compared to the 'good old days'. The chart below, giving minute by minute movements on the two shares, tells its own story THOUGH there is something important worthy of comment.

When viewing BARCLAYS price movements on the 27th (it effectively did nothing), we are reminded of the adage "If it ain't goin' up, it's goin' down". Earlier, BARC had indeed triggered the potential for upward movement, assiduously avoiding the nirvana of Higher Highs in the period thereafter. With 20:20 hindsight, we should have red flagged this, in addition to warning clients it needed better 226 to be taken seriously.

Finally, a reminder the scaling on this chart is for RBS' share price, NOT BARC's despite their "almost" similarity.

Prior Months:

June

May

April 2017 BMR FLYBE TESLA Griifin Unilever 88 Energy United Airlines Sirius Ferrari Hays YouGov Lloyds Barclays RBS

March 2017 Aberdeen Ass Laura Ashley ARGOS A G BARR French Connection BHP AFC Aberdeen Asset Jubilee LLOYDS RBS BARC Debenhams GreatPortland Just Eat Sirius

February 2017 Ferrari Sound Proton Power SIRIUS_SXX Esure A)O World CARD Factory Gulf Keystone BMR RENTokill BARCLAYS LLOYDS RBS

January 2017 SIRIUS Ferrari Next Premier Vet GBPEUR LLOYDS SKY Capita FastJet Talk Talk British Telecom SKY Barclays RBS

December16 DOW JONES AO WORLD Ebay SIRIUS BMR Sirius Ferrari Next GBPEUR LLOYDS DIAGEO

November16 Includes FlyBe FastJet Johnston Press SKY Ferrari Rockhopper Lloyds Barclays RBS Sirius BMR Vodafone AMUR Minerals Chesnara Provexis

October16 Includes FTSE GBPEUR RBS Barclays The Dow Jones Ferrari Lloyds GOLD Strategic Minerals BMR PLUS500 DOW AGAIN Gulf Keystone Hurricane Countrywide Vodafone Zoldav

Sept16: Includes Range Resources Highland Natural Resources Cloudtag Tern Kodal UK Oil & Gas Gulf Keystone Hurricane Sirius Barclays San Leon Solo Chariot Sepura 88 Energy Gulf Keystone BMR Forbidden Tech HNR Sound Deutsche Bank Ferrari Twitter

August16 - includes Firstgroup Cobham Drax Edinburgh JimmyChoo Barclays Lloyds WilliamHill OilSector ProtonPower RBS DirectLine BMR JustEat BancaMonteDeiPaschidiSiena SiriusMinerals DixonsCarphone FERRARI Google SanLeon  WMIH  GulfKeystone