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29th September 2016

FTSE for FRIDAY & TWITTER (FTSE:UKX & NYSE:TWTR) We'd recently knocked together a report on Twitter, full of doom and gloom as the share had just one further hurdle to trip over before it commenced a slide to 15. A day later, in a move which was eerily generated by news reports, the price was sharply propelled upward (circled) out of the immediate drop zone, thus ensuring we'd wasted our time running the numbers against it!

It felt like someone had read our comments and thought "heck, let's avoid this crash".

The immediate price cycle suggests near term movement above 23.98 should tackle 24.79 next with secondary, if bettered, at 26.45. Our secondary is critical for the shares future as closure above this level allows longer term planning for $38 and beyond. One small word of warning though and it's at the 30 dollar mark. Due to movements in 2015, it appears some sort of glass ceiling awaits at such a point (boxed) and common sense suggests a stutter at this level in any future rising cycle. Basically, a bunch of folk would have bought at the highs in Oct 2015 and it's predestined they will Bail at Break Even (BABE) next time the price approaches the 30's with selling pressure causing a stutter.

Finally, if trouble is ahead, the price would now need fail below 21 as this permits weakness to 18 initially. But if 18 breaks, our secondary is a scary looking 11.8 and a new all time low.

FTSE for FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX)  It's quite a surprise to learn our two FTSE features are generally the most popular articles we produce. The reason it's a surprise is we initially opted to write about the FTSE 'cos we couldn't think of anything else! Another interesting aspect which gobsmacked us came from Google Analytics.

The above screen capture from Analytics suggests average visitors during September to www.trendsandtargets.com spend over an hour rummaging through our stuff! It's truly humbling & flattering to discover people think our free reports are worth this level of scrutiny. Many thanks and remember to CLICK ON ADVERTS which interest you as they help pay for this information.

Anyway, FTSE for FRIDAY? If it betters 6953, movement to an initial 6987 makes sense with secondary, if bettered, at 7071. We'd stress we're not entirely convinced the UK is expecting (or deserves) at 120 point Friday but it's a bit weird, the level of clear air above 6987.

The immediate uptrend is currently 6870 and movement below will suggest a slow down. Only if below 6800 would we actually have real concern as the market enters a phase with 6736 initially and secondary 6642 points.

We'll cover this more on Sundays Big Picture report but realistically the FTSE is now viewed as heading to 7388 longer term. Before rushing to open a long position, the stop is just a touch wide at 6100 points...

FUTURES

28th September 2016

FERRARI and XCITE ENERGY (NYSE:RACE & LSE:XEL) The crime scene which is XCITE deserves a glance, though, like shareholders, we'd prefer pretend a murder isn't happening. We'd a calculation which stated, if XEL managed below 1.18, bottom target was -2.55p and this was from a near term perspective. As clients are painfully aware, the share price has been trading - from Big Pic formula - with Minus Signs decorating drop targets for quite a while.

There's virtually no positive spin we can put against recent price moves. The drop on the 27th appears to suggest the immediate downtrend meant something to the market as the knife was given a nasty twist to avoid the price bettering it. This at least gives us a blue line which, if bettered, should suggest the market has had a change of heart. We wonder how many shareholders need suffer due to a marketplace which cheerfully promotes "enhanced expectations" for companies, then walks away when reality strikes. Visually, XEL has joined GKP, RRL, RRR in the list of casualties which litter the AIM.

In the event of a miracle, the first sign will be XEL managing to better BLUE on the chart.

At time of writing, this level is exactly 2p.

Our (increasingly less dodgy) timeframe logic suggests XEL has a maximum of a further 8 days before yet another decision need taken against the price' future. In theory, there's an expectation of 2.62p with any moves now above this immediate downtrend. Secondary calculates at 3.25p.

Visually neither ambition is particularly useful as the share need must better the Light Blue Dashed trend line (dating from May 2015 and currently 6.15p) before we'd dare take any rise seriously.

If a Grown Up were to investigate this share' movements, we'd propose THREE fairly recent price hikes as worth a hard look.

The first one came on March 7th with the surge to 29p. This looks designed to sucker investors against a naive hope the price was about to recover. The second one came on August 10th to 12.5p, to our cynical eye, another attempt to attract money. And the final piece of nastiness was September 9th and a lunge to 8.75p.

The Sept 9th thing was particularly vile from our perspective. It enacted a perfect GaGa - Gap UP above the immediate trend, Gap DOWN the next day to 3p. It was almost as if the market were aware bad news was coming and tried to attract investment before any report hit the streets... But this is the UK and we cannot expect nonsense like this in our highly regulated marketplace?

We've circled the Sept 9th surge above the trend, just in case people didn't notice. And restrained ourselves from emplacing clipart of a Sore Thumb as this would make the movement too obvious.

Finally, it's impossible to realistically calculate further drop targets. We monitor it on a daily basis for clients and we're giving some pretty horrid further drop potentials if the company intends remain trading. But once again, we'd emphasise it needs a miracle above Light Blue (dating from May 2015) and even then, we'll be watching with extreme caution.

And why are we so irritated? You have no idea what these repeated Gaps do to our software!

FERRARI (NYSE:RACE) always cheers us up and we need it, after our diatribe over XEL. Something interesting is happening with Ferrari' share price, presumably in the hope of them doing well in Malaysia this weekend. This situation now suggests anything above 51.6 will lead to 52.5 next as a major point of interest. The interesting thing,  should the price CLOSE above 52.5, we're showing a clear track until 60.

We've circled recent movement gaps against this shares price. Unlike XEL above, we tend not be too worried about this sort of thing from the USA due to futures trading against NYSE shares. Unless it's a massive gap - but in that case we're generally witnessing a game change movement.

Some alarm would be justified with any retreat now below BLUE (currently 49) as an initial 45 is expected with secondary 43.

Like a red Ferrari pulled over by the police for speeding in a 30 zone, it's visually pleasing.

FUTURES

27th September 2016

GBP vs EURO and Deutsche Bank (FX:GBPEUR & LS:DBK) It has been a while since we reviewed the GBP - EURO relationship. No need to read further, it's stuffed...

If GBP EUR were a share, we'd be comfortable it intends relaxation in the longer term to 1.02. The pairing needs trade above 1.26 to cancel the argument. What bothers us near term is circled on the chart. Essentially, this movement should not have happened if parity were the intention on the immediate movement cycle. It makes us suspect the current level of drop is unlikely to last despite multiple signals to the contrary.

The problem we have is simple. On the immediate cycle, the circled area suggested coming weakness to 1.135 with any near term moves below 1.1473 with secondary, if broken, at an extremely probable 1.117. The secondary is a big deal, probably worth translating Euro's back to Sterling for a while as it should exhibit a near term bounce. The reason is, any break below 1.117 is the last straw before parity and there's no way "they" will gift wrap such a drop. Goodness knows, there have been sufficient criminal cases for FOREX manipulation for us not to anticipate some more tampering.

 The circled area bugs us and we think the market is just going through the motions of a drop at present, despite some pretty wild movements. Don't get me wrong, normal arithmetic suggests 1.135 on the immediate cycle but we enjoy a lingering suspicion as its too obvious. My suspicion is we shall see a near term bounce above 1.162 toward 1.1663 with secondary calculating at 1.186.

None of these movements are sufficient to get the GBPEUR relationship out of danger and visually, there's another charty aspect worthy of consideration. Since BREXIT day, a glass ceiling appears to have formed at roughly 1.2 and normal behaviour, with any time spent above this level, will be an attempt at the longer term BLUE downtrend.

In summary, we hold extreme distrust for a marketplace where "All my friends say..." attitudes prevail. While logic demands parity, it's extremely unlikely to be a direct path.

DEUTSCHE BANK (LS:DBK) was last covered by ourselves in July (link here) and recent movements deserve a bit of an update. The share is now trading in our least favourite place where Big Picture targets are all prefaced with minus signs. Given the shambles which prevails against UK banks, it's not really a surprise. Weakness below 10 Euro now anticipates 7.09 initially with secondary at 1.93 Euro.

To escape the immediate drip cycle, the price needs better BLUE - currently 12.96 - but in fairness, even above 11.75 would give advance warning of some sort of miracle occurring.

FUTURES

26th September 2016

FORBIDDEN TECH, HIGHLAND NATURAL RESOURCES (again) and a word on SOUND (LSE:FBT & LSE:HNR) We're revisiting HNR due to a strange anomaly which has made itself known. Essentially, we've three arguments proposing action very soon on the share price. Two of them state HNR needed to CLOSE above 40.314p before we can suspect rises, the other (the longer term one) demands it needs now CLOSE above 42.791. On the 26th, the share closed the session at 40.5p!

Our inclination is to compromise and suggest anything near term above 43.88 should challenge an initial 51.25 but the longer term secondary now calculates at 62.75p. Our original article is here. (Link to article) If it's a trap, the share price now need slither below 29p to cancel the potential growth potential. Potentially. Importantly, last time we'd mooted a suggested bottom of 23.75p but the lowest the share achieved was 26p, so perhaps some real strength is present.

FORBIDDEN TECH (LSE:FBT) We've been emailed a few times about this recently. The current situation is of the price needing better 23.75p (BLUE) to break above the Big Picture downtrend. As a result, we need look for arguments capable of challenging such a level. Thankfully, there's one obvious thing and it's not shown clearly on the chart. In the event of this share managing to close above 12.68p, we're calculating an initial growth cycle to 20.6p (probably capable of challenging BLUE by the end of the year) with secondary at a crowd pleasing 34.75p.

During September, the highs have shown how important our 12.68p thing is but from a Big Picture viewpoint, closure above is liable to be crucial for a strong future.

As always, there's a RED line and it's at 7.5p presently. If the price moves below, we'd suspect Running Shoes would not be forbidden.

SOUND ENERGY (LSE:SOU) As can be expected, we've zero idea what the heck has happened to provoke SOUND' share price acrobatics but if it now betters 96p, growth to 113.5p looks about right. Secondary is 124p, if bettered. And if somehow the share were to better such a point, you're on your own as it exceeds logic.

Finally, we're taking a look at AIM's showing near term possibilities as the Aim Market (AXX) has now made it above our growth level of 813 points. This has the implicit suggestion movements against positive shares are liable to outperform.

Random Futures

25th September 2016

FTSE this Week. (FTSE:UKX) and a BMR Quickie At this part of the week, at T&T we should groan at facing another 5 days of numeric drudgery but reality is quite different. While the ever present fear of getting things wrong asserts itself, we still get a buzz looking forward to new challenges. This time, we've a feeling of deja vu. Again, if that's possible. Since the BREXIT vote in June, we've seen the number 6903 calculate as a major point of interest on the FTSE no less than THREE times.

We're clueless why our software keeps picking on this number as interesting but the chart shows that on each occasion we've proposed it as a target, the market appears to have agreed. This isn't an effort to advance ourselves for a "Smarty Pants Award" but rather, an attempt to make sense of what the market intends.

Firstly, the BLUE line. If we treat this immediate downtrend as serious, by actually beating our 6903 and closing above it, the situation now is an expectation of future trades above 6938 leading to an initial 7022 points with secondary 7150 points.

Secondly, the RED line. A suspiciously obvious uptrend has formed since the BREXIT vote and the current situation is the market needs break 6763 to signal the post-BREXIT surge has failed. As a result, we need look for scenario which will highlight if near term weakness is serious or, just normal insanity.

The first criteria we need propose is of weakness below 6880 leading to a useless 6866 points. While a 14 point slip on the market is less than interesting, if our 6866 is broken, the implication is of immediate weakness and if it's serious, the market could get to 6836 before we'd hope for a bounce of sorts. But for now, we'll examine what the software says if 6836 breaks and it's pointing out a danger of sharp reversal toward 6725, breaking the BREXIT trend.

What do we expect?

Currently, despite a pretty boring end to last week, the market is poised for greatness. But once again, we've a week starting with a Monday and on 80% of Mondays the market stinks. As a result, we'll not be surprised if the FTSE makes a lunge toward RED on the chat during the week. Remembering on multiple occasions, our 6903 has been bettered, common sense alone suggests the next time the FTSE moves above this level, any rise should "stick". But a fake drop first would not surprise us in the slightest.

If only to satisfy the other criteria - "We don't like Mondays"

BMR GROUP (LSE:BMR) Due to the vast number of folk "trapped" in BMR, the share resides on our Main Screen but does not form part of daily analysis as it's movements, while often sounding useful, are generally within spread. This results in the situation where a 7% rise is usually just a numbers game with the spread is sitting at 8.3%. However, the forced upward movement on the 23rd was slightly noteworthy as anything now above 6.25 signals growth to 6.75p initially with secondary 7.25p.

Either one of these movements gives the share a chance of CLOSING above BLUE on the chart (currently 6.5p) and this would allow us to speculate of longer term growth toward 8.9p / 11p, along with happy(er) days.

RANDOM FUTURES

24th September 2016

An  article on GULF KEYSTONE for Proactive Investor - before professional editing.

GULF KEYSTONE - Inventing Anti Gravity?

by Alistair Strang, Trends and Targets

We've a mantra at TaT used when price movements simply are not making sense. Sometimes, a share has done everything except  advertise in the FT that it's price is going to go up. And sometimes, despite all the evidence, the share will point blank refuse to perform. When I see this happen, "if it ain't goin' up, it's goin' down" is invariably repeated and I start looking for drop triggers. It's quite alarming the number of times this attitude bears fruit, almost as if the nice people who control price movements had a fair idea some grotty news was forthcoming, generally a week in advance.

Thankfully, the converse is equally true. In the case of LSE:GKP, it's trading in a zone where all drop targets really should be prefaced with a minus sign. We've been calculating recently that should it drip below 1.8p, any fall might stop at 1.4 or it could equally go to 0.4p. But the interesting thing is, the price HAS NOT gone down and this sparks the suspicion, "if it ain't goin' down,..."

In the last week, something quite interesting happened from my perspective. I'd been looking at a potential downtrend since 2014 and suspected it could prove important. This was the trend which formed following the killer movement in March 2014 when the market decided it was open season on GKP investors, trashing the share from 144 to 102 in a single day. The confusing Tuesday this week, when GKP moved from 2.06p to 2.34p appeared to be due to the price moving through a downtrend which dates back to a period when the share was over a quid. It means any positive news or market conditions are now liable to exert quite strong upward force against Gulf Keystone.

To inject some reality into the conversation, anything now above 2.5p looks like it should drive a near term 3.3p with secondary, if bettered, at 4.15p. It's the secondary ambition which really interests me as this would prove capable of launching Gulf Keystone into a region where a long term aspiration calculates as being a silly sounding 14p. Silly, aside from the visuals on the chart where such an ambition really does not look foolish.

On the chart above, I've circled the Tuesday movement and can only hope this 'proved' the downtrend I'd been watching was valid. The alternate remains extremely unpleasant as reality insists I mention ALL Big Picture drop targets against this share are prefaced with a minus sign. From viewing the force of the downtrend since 2014, I'd need this above 40p to signal a glass ceiling has broken and some proper recovery can commence.

22nd September 2016

FTSE for Friday (FTSE:UKX) In the last week, we covered 5 shares which were Top 10 chat topics in an effort to drive millions of folk to our website. We'd finally conceded to accept website adverts in an attempt to ensure we eat regularly.  Our articles on Interactive Investor - and mirrored on the TaT website the next day - received record numbers of readers. We also experienced a reduction in the number of folk clicking adverts which was just weird. So, we're returning to writing about instruments we find interesting and today, it's our FTSE for Friday spot.

Recently, Jeremy Warner of the Telegraph has been writing the FTSE faces a massive correction when the central banks cease QE. Generally, he'd a bloke we take seriously but admit we cannot find any early warning signs the FTSE faces a thrashing. Quite the converse, if the truth be told. On Thursday, we found ourselves speculating as to whether the FTSE would better 6945 and head to 7000 (obviously, it didn't) but we were slightly heartened by the High of Day not actually being bettered by FTSE Futures in after hours trading. This sort of thing will often result in the UK market opening UP the next day, then creeping down.

The market closed THURSDAY 22nd at 6911 and now suggests anything near term above 6945 should provoke an initial 6994 with secondary a presumably much longer term 7107 points. If our optimism is misplaced, the market now needs slither below 6785 to generate concern, along with weakness to 6721 with secondary 6648 points. Unfortunately, there's a heck of a wide parameter between these two trigger levels, allowing the market to mess around for a day or two before any positive upward oomph occurs.

From the point at which the market closed, we're tending suspect some near term relaxation on the FTSE (remember, we are talking about the market - not futures) to a non threatening 6891 and hopefully a bounce. Near term, any bounce bettering 6934 should be taken seriously as it should generate an initial 6954 with secondary 6975 points. While these numbers differ from the Big Picture potentials in the prior paragraph, they illustrate the sort of nonsense we get up to as we just 'proved' a near term bounce should trigger a Bigger Picture motion. Hopefully Friday doesn't leave us looking like idiots.

Finally, we keep an eye on the FTSE chatrooms on Interactive as a few folk sometimes make impressive calls. What's happened to LambriniGirl though? The person behind this moniker was generally worth reading. And the choice of username alone was always worth a smile.

Some Random Futures

21st September 2016

Sepura and 88 Energy (LSE:SEPU & LSE:88E) Sharp eyed market watchers will have noticed The AIM made it above our magic number of 813 points. For just 3 minutes with an upward spike just after the market opened for the day. While the market failed to close above 813 points, we're hopeful it's early warning of some good times ahead for members of the lesser market. Otherwise, Sepura's share price is looking a bit stuffed as, while the recent plunge to 10p seems designed to look like a bottom, when we run the numbers, bottom calculates at 4.25p. Worse, the very obvious downtrend signals the price needs a miracle above 44p currently (BLUE) before we dare describe bottom as "in". The dangerous thing is, any near term weakness below just 18.5 risks the start of a slope down to 6p on the immediate cycle which is certainly in the ballpark of the bottom target.

In fact, sufficiently above to hint at hidden strength.

Near term, in the event of the share trading above 23.5p, there's a hint signalling the potential of growth toward 29p initially, maybe even 35p and a future attempt at the BLUE downtrend.

However, for now it looks stuffed but perhaps worth watching if it closes on our 4.25 in the hope of catching some sort of bounce.

88 Energy (LSE:88E) making its way now below 1.5p would be a 'Bad Thing' as weakness to 1.18 seems about right. But our secondary of 0.12p is downright scary. Or rather, it would be had the price not been exploring these depths during 2015.

Some slight hope comes from the Light Blue line on the chart as the share price sleep walked through this level at the tail end of last year, hopefully broadcasting that the olden days since 2014 are gone and good times still are ahead.

Currently, the price is essentially messing around and needs better BLUE (3.6p currently) to signal some proper growth to an initial 5p with secondary a very useful 6.25p. In terms of Big Picture stuff, this actually needs above 17.5p to be taken very seriously as, for now, it's just messing around.

Random Futures

20th September 2016

CHARIOT OIL (LSE:CHAR) Back in 2012, this was one of the first shares we employed our "real life" targeting methods, successfully mapping the rise to just over 2 quid with exquisite precision. Unfortunately, what happened once it reached our upper target also was to prove precise as, when the price reversed below 175p, some grotty drop potentials made themselves known. And of course, when the price was gapped down by 55p on May 12th, it entered an entirely new phase of existence, one which calculated with a bottom at 3p eventually.

In a slight saving grace, it now looks like CHAR bottomed at 4p and all targets given in our last outlook (link here) in March this year have been achieved since. The share price is now hopefully entering the first phase of undoing the damage caused by price manipulation in 2012 - the second phase commencing when the price manages to actually CLOSE above the dashing BLUE downtrend currently at 15p. Thankfully, a couple of things have happened recently which hint this may actually prove possible.

Firstly, the Solid Blue line has been the ruling downtrend and CHAR - closing the 20th at 8.12p - has successfully closed a session in safety. The ruling trend is currently at 7.996p mid-price! This creates the situation where movement now above just 8.9p points at continued growth to 12p next with secondary a longer term 15.5p. Importantly, future closure above that Dashed Blue line is seen as facing an attraction of 22p.

Of course, this could all be a dreadful mistake but the share would need close below BLUE (7.996 currently) to justify any alarm. If wanting an excuse to be afraid, intraday traffic below 7.5 would break the immediate uptrend in minute by minute mode since the 14th September.

SOME RANDOM FUTURES

19th September 2016

CLUFF NATURAL and SCOTGOLD (LSE:CLNR & LSE:SGZ) feature next and both shares exhibit quite different potentials. Cluff needs to close a session above just 5.154 mid-price (currently) to allow us to exhibit optimism for coming growth toward an initial 9p, maybe even 11p if the recent surge to 7.675 was indeed a harbinger of good times ahead. The funny thing about this share comes from the BLUE line on the chart.

The share price exhibited a blooming near "number perfect" break above this historical downtrend to its initial 7.6p which confirmed we'd been watching the correct trend. What has happened since is a real puzzle due to reversal below the trend. Almost as if it were all a dreadful mistake! However, our suspicion given moves in the last week is simply we're looking at a calibration difference rather than a real problem.

If the upward surge was driven by misplaced optimism, any weakness now below 4.2p breaks RED, the immediate uptrend, and allows relaxation toward 3.5p initially but realistically we'd expect such a point to break and the price find a "real" bottom of 2p.

But of course, our suspicion remains of this being a slight error in our calibration and this can be proven even with intraday trades above 5.5p as this should generate near term growth to 6.1p and, if bettered, hopefully CLOSURE above BLUE and happy times ahead.

SCOTLAND (LSE:SGZ) is a share we find a nuisance. As the company are, almost literally, on our doorstep, we would have expected our phone calls to be returned or emails answered. To be honest, we're fans of "Gold Rush" on telly and a look behind the scenes of a real GOLD mine would be a thrill, plus, perhaps giving us some fundamental data to back up our number projection. Alas, it was not to be and the folk behind Scotgold remain nearby strangers. When we think about it, that's probably for the best as there'd be nothing worse than establishing an acquaintance, then writing what follows.

Despite some heady share price movements back in 2011, Scotgold is now trading in a region where its logical bottom is -1.25p. Which is obviously impossible but really stinks as it implies we cannot trust it. At time of writing, the share is trading around 0.65p and our software argues it's heading to 0.36p, needing a miracle above 0.9p to rubbish the immediate drop potential.

If we pretend miracles are indeed possible, anything now above 0.9 should prove capable of an initial 1.15p with secondary, if bettered at 1.45p. It's interesting to note our initial 1.15 runs smack into the downtrend since the start of 2015 anytime now. The funny thing is, once above 1.45p, we're looking at a share price capable of doubling.

SOME RANDOM FUTURES

Finally, if you want to look at what we do behind the scenes, this link has our client report for the day before the Brexit vote. CLICK HERE FOR OUR 4mb PDF DAILY CLIENT REPORT (44 pages)

18th September 2016

FTSE for the week, the AIM, and a story about a potato. We'll get the potato story out of the way first. Regular readers will recall we planted a crop of tatties in an effort to illustrate what happens if you exercise patience. We've finally harvested the potatoes, turning some into chips and can report, rather disappointingly, our potato crop tasted just like potatoes. We'd somehow thought, as we'd grown them ourselves. they would be even better than shop bought potatoes... When we produced the potato analogy, it was in relation to the AIM market and the need for it to better 813 points. And of course, the need for patience in the interim.

The AIM, guess what, it STILL has not managed above our initial 813 points and seems busy inventing a glass ceiling for the market at 809 points. So, close but no banana. Or potato. However, despite the probability of some near term relaxation, we suspect anything on this market above 813 will point to a near term growth cycle of 898 and if beyond, quite a few members of this marketplace will doubtless experience some proper recovery as the future potentials are pretty massive (+50%).

If trouble is planned against the AIM, below 800 only defeats the immediate uptrend and wouldn't be a big deal. The market would need crash below BLUE at 718 currently to scare us silly.

For this week, we have scheduled CLUFF (CLNR), CHARIOT (CHAR), SEPURA (SEPU), 88 Energy (88E), & SCOTGOLD (SGZ) as AIM analysis subjects in this, our headline section. Unless, our course, anything interesting happens elsewhere.

FTSE (FTSE:UKX) As we'd expected, the FTSE on Friday didn't really do anything interesting. It did make it above our 6745 for less than a minute, achieving a day high of 6746 which was a bit rubbish. The movement in the closing seconds bothered us as it implies continued weakness below 6690 will prove capable of reaching 6670 but the longer term secondary of 6615 is a nuisance. This would take the UK market firmly into a region where our proposed bottom of 6550 becomes very valid and viable.

Or in plain English, it promises a grotty week across the market.

However, the FTSE closed the week at 6710 and need only better 6740 to exceed the immediate downtrend and give some hope that the rate of descent has eased. In theory, this would signal the market intends near term growth to a useless 6758 with secondary 6790 points. Achieving the secondary would be a really big deal, giving us ample cause to suspect continued movement to 6903 is ahead.

If above 6903, we'd need stir the tea leaves again to project further.

RANDOM FUTURES

16th September 2016

This was my article this week for Proactive, before it received some professional editing. Out of interest, let us know which you prefer. But we all liked their graphic rather a lot. Reminds me of when I used to get migraine headaches.

SOLO OIL - Does it need a Hans ?

by Alistair Strang, Trends and Targets

Sometimes it can be worth using an overlay to compare a shares performance with the overall sector. In the case of SOLO (LSE:SOL), the PURPLE squiggly flattish line represents the volatility of the Oil & Gas sector since 2010, virtually concealing the reality of a sector which has bounced between 5,000 and 9,000 points. As can be seen from SOLO' volatility in the same perdiod, it managed to virtually completely ignore its parent sector and experienced quite a rollercoaster of a ride.

But something interesting started to happen back at the start of 2015 and it appears SOLO has finally conceded which part of the market it intends follow with the result I can now use the ruling sector as a possible indicator for the next time to hope SOLO will become seriously interesting.

Firstly, the Oil & Gas sector is currently trading around 6885 points and while devotees of straight trend lines will immediately suspect it only need better 7750 to point at fireworks, I use numbers as I've found them a safer option. Should the Oil & Gas Sector now better 8115 points, I shall be inclined to look favourably on sector members and expect rises to actually stick rather than boost for the sky, then fall back like any previous Prime Ministers integrity and reputation.

Currently, the big deal counting against SOLO has it trading in a region where Absolute Bottom calculates at 0.09p. Despite the share price currently trading at nearly three times this level, it need only drip below 0.22p to make a visit to bottom almost a certainty. Every number I attempt to calculate below 0.09p is prefaced with a minus sign but it must be remembered any share getting below one of my "Absolutes" isn't necessarily stuffed. It just means that from a software perspective, it's going to need a blooming miracle to become noteworthy again. Or, perhaps just some good news.

To attempt a positive viewpoint, SOLO needs to currently CLOSE a session above 0.59p to justify a smile as this calculates with the potential of 0.65p. Obviously, if this scenario is to pretend realism, it's more than liable to happen within a couple of sessions with the result my suggested 0.59p shall become a footnote in the history of the galaxy. Instead, I'd suggest paying attention with anything above just 0.32p as this will hint the immediate downtrend for 2016 has been bettered and something positive is about to happen. For the longer term, in the event of the share trading above 0.65p, it appears 1.25p becomes viable, almost doubling the price and - from a nerds perspective - challenging a glass ceiling which awaits around 1.1p (drawn in PINK). Crucially, I suspect the 0.65p will prove capable of some stutters if achieved given it bonks into the downtrend since 2011 anytime in the next couple of months.

These glass ceiling things are interesting as recent years have tended make a share price which closes ABOVE a historical ceiling one of the more sane "Go Long & Forget It" trades. When I (rather irresponsibly) run the numbers against SOLO, above the Glass Ceiling gives 2.25p as a worthy ambition (apparently) and a new all time high.

Good luck.

Alistair

15th September 2016

FTSE FRIDAY SCENARIO (LSE:UKX) & SAN LEON update (LSE:SLE) The last two Fridays have seen us provide scenario for profit of over 100 points, something pretty massive for the FTSE and for this Friday... we're not too sure, so don't expect a hat trick. Privately, we've been expecting the market to bottom around 6550 points but the market has not triggered the final drop criteria by wandering below 6650. Instead, it looks possible we shall witness some near term growth as anything now above 6745 looks capable of reaching 6790 on the immediate movement cycle.

Amazingly, the secondary calculates at 6903 (why does that number keep appearing?) BUT the ruling downtrend for September looks like interfering around the 6800 level.

As always, we would remind you these numbers refer to The FTSE, not the Futures market.

SAN LEON (LSE:SLE) As we had suspected, following our last update (link here) SLE managed to relax to our initial drop target at 44p and the scenario remains of weakness below 44p leading to 39p next. Secondary is a presumably longer term 31p. We're not too confident about the secondary. Those who've been reading our column this week will be aware of our drivel about "Spikes". We suspect if the price intends a bounce, it shall ideally happen just before 39p as the price reacts to the spike on August 30th.

The alternate is now of movement above 50p bettering the immediate downtrend, allowing for an initial 55.5p with secondary 61p. Or even 68p!

A COUPLE OF RANDOM FUTURES

14th September 2016

BARCLAYS PLC (LSE:BARC) It's been a month since we looked at Barclays. The share price, almost amazingly, has managed to better BLUE on the chart signalling the Brexit manipulation is complete with the scenario for the near term of movement above 177p leading to an initial 188p with secondary at a visually surprising 206p. The reason we're a bit sceptical about the 206p thing is simple. It gives Barc's a good chance of closing above PINK, the dashing line which highlights a glass ceiling around the 190p level.

The implication, should the share grow above the glass ceiling is apparently from a long term attraction above 290p. But it looks like an issue is liable to make itself felt, due to the downtrend from 2007. While we prefer to eschew giving 3 growth targets, the number we're being presented above 206p is at 220p and amazingly this bangs against the long term downtrend anytime soon. As a result, we must regard 220p as being viable.

But this is all speculation as the share still has not managed to close a session above the PINK line around 190p.

It trouble is planned, there's a pretty clear RED line since a new trend was forced on August 8th. It currently implies a problem should the share price weaken below just 166p as an initial non-threatening 162p looks about right. Our secondary is more of a nuisance at 151p, once again taking the price below the immediate downtrend and into a zone with some really grotty drop potentials.

Some random futures

13th September 2016

Sirius Minerals (LSE:SXX) Following our report yesterday on Gulf Keystone, we received a few emails asking for clarification about an opening second spike. During 2016, the use of "spikes" has diminished considerably but they still happen. We feel the market employs them to provoke kneejerk reactions from traders, something instinctive which generally will cost private investors quite a bit of money.

Avoiding kneejerk reactions can prove difficult for humans. Jaclyn at Trends and Targets was getting married at the weekend and my single job was to give the bride away, something daughters seem to want. After ensuring she was safely in the back seat of the wedding car, with none of her dress trailing under the door, I joined her on the back seat while she fussed with her dress / shoes / veil. Her flower bouquet was thrust at me to hold while she fiddled around and as I pulled my door closed, I came face to face with a WASP on the window.

Usain Bolt would have a problem with me, if alongside when a wasp buzzed in my ear. Encased in a car, my reaction was instant and I was even able to inflict a final malicious twist when I crushed the wasp against the glass. For several hours thereafter, Jaclyn talked at length about her (now very modified) flower bouquet being used to kill a wasp.

For GKP, if the share is moved below 1.8p at the open, we'd be inclined NOT to panic as traditionally a spike DOWN at the open is used to collect stops from folk who've looked at the previous low, bought while it's "cheap", placed a stop below 1.8. Additionally, it will scare the pants off Private Investors, perhaps forcing many to make a panic sale. Our rule of thumb is to expect a future rise with a spike DOWN at the open, unless the low is exceeded by 9.30am or so,. Obviously, the converse applies with a Spike UP. We don't like the spike strategy as it's designed to attack traders panic buttons.

Lecture over, it has nearly been a month since we looked at Sirius Minerals (link here)and so far, the share price hasn't done anything spectacular. Other than, prove our suspicion we had actually witnessed a spike UP at the open and the share price has performed as expected. However, the reversal thankfully halted at 32.5 rather than hit 31p and this left the immediate uptrend intact. The situation how is of movement below 34.5p currently breaking the immediate uptrend and pointing at coming reversal toward 27p initially with secondary 19.5p. This would suggest quite a slowdown in its growth potentials but still give considerable hope for the future as the Longer Term immediate uptrend in currently 17p.

However, we were slightly interested in movements during the 13th September. For the last few weeks, there's been something going on at the 40p level and the share price has now moved into a region where anything above 41p can easily provoke an initial 44.5p. While perhaps this isn't interesting, it would indicate the fascination with 40p is over and further movement toward 49p would make a heck of a lot of sense. In fact, if such a twitch upward were backed with positive news, it could easily hit 59p.

Above 59p and our problem remains of target levels being a bit thin on the ground. This is why we're watching the share in the hope it experiences some gaps upward at the open, indicating the market wants a new uptrend to commence. Here's hoping.

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12th September 2016

GULF KEYSTONE. (LSE:GKP) and Hurricane Energy (LSE:HUR) We're probably not alone in thinking "Gulp Keystone" every time we knock together a report on this mob. Traditionally, those of us who dare cover GKP are immediately awarded with vitriol in discussion forum', something one quickly learns to ignore. A personal favourite was an abusive (and quite rude email) received from someone in 'Stan who'd clearly not actually read the article and instead, was clearly relying on someone else who'd produced a completely inaccurate account of what we'd written, one which probably suited their agenda.

We've been suspiciously watching GKP, half expecting a rise to around 10-12 to occur without the benefit of positive news. This has (still) not happened, hopefully a good thing, as the last thing needed is a fake rise such as experienced by YELL and WOOLLIES prior to their eventual demise. It was almost as if the markets wanted to draw in a final batch of suckers, prior to the final funeral notification. The situation against GKP now is simple. It cannot really afford to close a session below 1.8p. As we've iterated before, from a Big Picture perspective the share is trading in a region where we cannot calculate a bottom target. If it closes below 1.8p, it starts trading in a NEAR TERM region where every bottom target is prefaced with a minus sign. This would not be a good thing, created by a set of circumstances where an absolute miracle will be needed. It's quite one thing when a share moves into a danger zone from a Big Picture perspective such as GKP did back in 2014 with the movement below 150p, it's generally a disaster when it happens from a Near Term point of view.

The HOWEVER comes from Hurricane Energy. This was a share where is 2014 we'd warned of a coming bottom at 10p and the price eventually achieved it earlier this year. In fact, it made moves below 10p for a few sessions, somehow always managing to recover - a bit - but never terribly convincingly until May of this year, when everything changed. Currently trading around the 38p level, if it were to better 44.5p then 51p becomes a credible ambition, perhaps even an absolutely fruitcake distant 83p. The point obviously, is miracles can happen.

For Gulf Keystone, in the event of the share price now CLOSING a session above 3.1675 mid-price, we shall suspect it is making the important transit from "Going Down" to "Probably NOT Going Down" and our (usually) unreliable timeframe projection system suggests the share has just 7 days or so to make a commitment. The reasoning behind this comes from the March 2014 movement when the share price was gapped below the uptrend, creating a new downtrend which was remorseless until April of this year.

If GKP does indeed manage to close a session above BLUE, it moves into a region where positive news & sentiment can easily drive an initial 6p, maybe even 8p. But while we would regard the ruling influence as coming from a remarkably sane looking 31p, a very big pinch of salt is suggested as movements this year signal a glass ceiling is auditioning at 16p.

For now though, we're watching the 1.8p level very very closely and hope, if the market does chose to break this point, it is with an opening second spike downward to collect anyone daring to place a stop loss.

A couple of random Futures

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11th September 2016

Our report on Thursday evening for Friday was supposed to relate ONLY to the FTSE and not FTSE Futures. Our drop scenario worked out quite disgustingly (we prefer Fridays to be cheerful) but what happened once the FTSE closed at 4.30 was the true shocker. We'd mentioned (in passing almost) there was quite a lot of clear air between 6784 and 6714. The next time FTSE Futures went below 6784, Futures were to drop like a stone, reaching our 6712 just 40 minutes before the futures market closed for a weekend hangover. In total, there was a drop of 108 points from our initial trigger to target and to be honest, we'd prefer not experiencing 100 point+ volatility every Friday.

To quote a politician, it rather spoils our Friday afternoon on the Golf course... (only kidding - we go to the pub)

It was, however, quite interesting we'd pinned our hopes on the 3 retail banks. Quite ludicrously, the only BLUE percentages on our primary shares list when Friday completed were the banks, giving a true "duh" moment.

If the FTSE intends anything interesting, we need it to better 6873 this week as such a movement should trigger growth to an initial 6903 with secondary coming in at 6949 - challenging the heights of August and, from a big picture perspective, hinting at better things ahead. To be honest, we would find it easy to add another 100 points onto that number.

However, behaviour on futures after London closed on Friday was pretty vile as FTSE futures reached a brief low of 6690 just before they closed. Obviously, this carries the implication the FTSE should open DOWN on Monday as anything below 6690 risks an initial 6677 with secondary 6599 points.

We suspect the reality will be of the FTSE opening the week down, perhaps at around 6740 points just to break the immediate uptrend, then spend the day hopefully experiencing some recovery. From a near term perspective, any recovery bettering the 6810 level should probably be taken seriously.

We've scheduled another look at the car crash which is GULF KEYSTONE (LSE:GKP) for our report on Monday evening.

Random Futures

10th September 2016

UK Oil & Gas - will it get fat?

Unedited article for Proactive written on 8th Sept

by Alistair Strang, Trends and Targets

There's a hazard in doing my job, one which became apparent this week. Jaclyn at Trend & Targets is getting married and has asked me to "give her away" at the ceremony. It seems daughters expect this sort of nonsense but it threw up a major issue. Like many Scots, tucked away in a wardrobe, I keep my national dress. Kilt, jacket, heavy silver sporran, silly socks, blue face paint, a bloody great sword, that sort of thing. But expected to dress formally, I was to quickly discover 7 years of sitting at a desk, playing with numbers, viewing movements, had a price.

NONE of my Highland regalia actually fitted. This discovery, days before I perform my duties at this weekends wedding, has ensured I've moved my keyboard and screens to worktop level, meaning I now stand while thinking and typing. Somehow though, it's unlikely my waist is going to lose four inches before the event so I'm going to need to borrow a frock in the right tartan for the wedding (Black Watch regiment, if anyone is interested).

Insidiously, I can also blame TESCO & SAINSBURY for my weight gain as it's simply too easy to chuck in a pair of slightly larger blue jeans when your faulty old ones seem to be shrinking in the waist every time they get washed.

What has this to do with UK Oil & Gas? Absolutely nothing other than it's my first report in a standing position and I've an axe to grind, along with sore feet already.

UK Oil & Gas (LSE:UKOG) has, broadly speaking, experienced price movements in the last couple of years matching other sector members. An UP at the start of 2015, an UP at the start of 2016. And realistically, like the sector, the share has not really shown real direction. If I were to use BP as a case in point ('cos I was supposed to be doing FTSE 100 B's this week but got bored), BP is supposed to be heading to 499p on the immediate cycle and if this is bettered, I shall accept it's going up. In the case of UKOG, a share price of 2.285 is required to be bettered, then I can plan for proper growth.

A triggering movement such as this calculates with an initial target of 3.4p and it looks like it could be another month or so before the BLUE downtrend on the chart will threaten price movement triggers. As a result, there's a pretty good chance the price will remain messing around between RED and BLUE for a while. Visually, the 3.4p aspiration for an initial surge above BLUE makes sense and better still, generates force for a longer term 4.75p.

Of course, I've always got a "however" and it comes from moves which are circled on the chart. For some reason, the market has seen fit on a couple of occasions to gap this share price upward, introducing a growth element which on each occasion has proven unsustainable. This makes me extremely nervous about the RED line along the bottom of the chart as it carries the implication should the share price break RED, the market will probably cease this artificial inflation and allow weakness to establish itself.

In the case of UKOG, the suggestion is of anything below 1.17 currently being capable of driving the share down to 096p, maybe even 0.18p if propelled by negative news. Unfortunately, similar to my RISE scenario above, this sort of drop scenario also makes visual strength. This is why I use charts as I like visual confirmation my numbers make sense. Unlike my waistline which makes absolutely no sense....

Alistair

8th September 2016

7th September 2016

TERN (LSE:TERN) and KODAL MINERALS (LSE:KOD) Tern are at the edge of becoming quite interesting and realistically, it cannot happen soon enough. As the chart highlights, the price broke RED, the long term uptrend a few months ago and has repeatedly failed to recover safely. As a result, the price is trading in a region where negative news could easily drive it to a bottom of 0.5p.

However, the BLUE downtrend is currently at 11.2749p and, if the share were to do nothing for the next five days, it would sleepwalk through the trend. (ain't gonna happen!) But we'd be interested if it now were to close above BLUE as growth toward 15p initially with secondary 18p becomes viable. To be fair, even near term intraday trades above 12p, the previous high, would serve a pretty solid signal it's about to get some oomph.

Of course, we're still scanning AIM's in the hope the AIM market will start trading north of 813 points. It HAS finally managed to better the 800 point signal, closing the session at 801.7 with the result we've bought a lucky rabbits foot.

KODAL MINERALS (LSE:KOD) This has experienced a couple of interesting sessions, actually proving quite a surprise. The other day when the price reached .2275 it managed to better our initial "breakout" target of 0.22 very slightly and now, we're hopeful the reversal since has simply been a gap closure exercise. In the event of this now managing to CLOSE a session above 0.16p again anytime soon, it moves into a playground where anything above 0.2275 calculates with an initial ambition at 0.32p but the "longer term" secondary is quite a surprise, coming in at 0.8225p. Presumably this will require some pixy dust sprinkled on news reports as the price has a really foul history.

Futures

6th September 2016

HIGHLANDS NATURAL RESOURCES and CLOUDTAG (LSE:HNR & LSE:CTAG) both cluttered our email recently and a glance at recent trading data against these AIM's gives a clue as to why. Please remember the AIM is currently topping out at 800 points and we want the market above 813 before we will suspect a genuine upward surge is commencing. Thankfully, both these shares appear to have little work to do which can start 'em moving.

HIGHLANDS NATURAL RESOURCES, currently trading around 31p, needs better a visually difficult 47p currently before we can believe growth is commencing to an initial 61p with secondary an interesting 75p. The reason we're fascinated in such a secondary comes from the number matching the highs earlier this year as this will tend provoke a stutter at such a level, if achieved. Beyond such a point, we'd need run the numbers again.

However, the current drop cycle is proving a slight concern as near term weakness below 29p suggests a visit to 23.75p and hopefully a bounce. In fact, from our perspective, it almost must give a bounce due to the implication below RED of 3.5p. In fairness, we'd suspect bad news would be needed.

It's certainly unusual for us to propose such strong upward movements but the current - rather contrived - downtrend is interesting.

CLOUDTAG (LSE:CTAG) is a different kettle of fish. To start to indicate real trouble, it would need fail below RED at 5.6p currently. Having got the danger level out of the way, it appears anything now above 15.25 should generate an initial 17.25p with secondary a very possible 19.5p. Obviously, 19.5 matches the shares historic highs and will inevitably bring out the BABE squad for those trapped since 2013 (Bail At Break Even) thus provoking a stumble in any rise cycle. We'd need analyse the path taken from current to 19.25p to generate any realistic future number as the best we can calculate currently is a visually silly 32.75p.

A couple of Random Futures

5th September 2016

Range Resources Ltd (LSE:RRL) We are sometimes, probably deservedly, taken to task for our light hearted approach to some shares which have been trashed by the stock market. Our defence is simple; if you didn't laugh, you would cry. Or in the case of RRL, suffer a complete doze of hysterics due to the multiple trauma inflicted on Private Investors over the last few years. Due to the AIM market showing potentials for some decent upward strength, we're looking at some AIM Sleepers which appear to be waiting their turn at the starting gate.

In the case of RRL, the position currently is quite simple. Anything near term above 0.64 allegedly has the potential to start an upward surge, leading to 1.01p initially with secondary a longer term 1.59p. Surprisingly, the 1.59p ambition, while sounding ridiculous against a share currently trading at 0.46p, makes some visual sense. We've circled a set of circumstances on the chart from 2014 and we'd be amazed if any price rise did not stutter once it enters the circled zone, thus making the ambition reasonable. Where it's logical or not will doubtless depend on a mix of market conditions and news flow.

For the AIM to trade above 813, shares like RRL will find themselves well placed to announce something positive as the price is liable to move with a degree of force. The fly in the ointment remains of the share currently trading in a region where "Ultimate Bottom" is prefaced with a minus sign. Only in the event of the price managing to actually CLOSE above 2.6p will we dare allocate long term potentials but the scenario given above forms the basis of slight hope.

If 'they' intend dash hope, some caution if now below 0.31 as a trip to 0.15 looks about right.

SOME RANDOM FUTURES

4th September 2016

FTSE for this week (FTSE:UKX) Our headline outlook here on Friday against the FTSE produced a "What the heck" moment, when the market reached our so called 'longer term' 6926 one minute before the market closed for the day. In fact, it allegedly hit 6928.25 but the funny thing is, the closing minute candle before inevitable closing price reversal only shows a high of 6925.97. In plain English, bang on target, despite the market closing the day at 6894

The situation now is the FTSE needs below 6725 to raise an eyebrow. Otherwise, anything above 6929 looks capable of growth toward 6980 as a pretty major point of interest with secondary a longer term 7050. But our definition of "longer term" is open to debate but generally, we anticipate a trigger to initial target on the same day whereas the secondary is usually quite a bit longer. The important thing is, we firmly believe the market - once it closes again above 6903 - is liable to commence proper upward oomph as we're still showing a distant 7350 as possible at the top of the current movement cycle.

If wanting to pretend sanity and playing safe, the visuals suggest LONG positions should assume a "no brainer" status once the FTSE next trades above 6956 points, represented by BLUE on the chart below.

For the rest of this week, we are looking at some AIM's which have been sleeping as the AIM market is starting to look capable of some proper movements.

Random Free Futures for Monday

1st September 2016

FTSE FOR FRIDAY 2nd (FTSE:UKX) & AIM MARKET too.  As usual, we are talking about the FTSE, NOT after hours futures. Near term, the FTSE has a pretty annoying problem should it manage below the current bottom target of 6702. We really are hoping for a bounce prior to 6702 (maybe already happened at 6722) as the implication of movement below leads to 6672 initially with secondary a pretty vile 6610 points. About the nicest thing we can suggest about the secondary target is it matches the lows of the start of August and therefore common sense would suggest a bounce if attained.

Since the Brexit vote, we've moaned several times about the lack of coherent uptrend as the market just kept going, even reaching and bettering our proposed 6903 target. We can play with drawing lines forever but realistically we remain optimistic due to 6903 actually being bettered. The downward dribble illustrated by the market since mid-August should really be expected, if only due to the holiday season. The downward trend (shown in BLUE) has been extremely precise and results in the situation where the FTSE need only better 6823 to give a clear signal that the kids are back in prison and parents are back at the grindwheel. Additionally, we would anticipate future growth commencing toward an initial 6867 with secondary, if bettered, at a longer term 6926 points.

Of course, the 6926 thing is, from our perspective, a really big deal as the market once again visits a region with a distant horizon around 7350 points. What really interests us here is the parallel with something the AIM market is showing.

With some justification, we continue to praise the AIM market. If we treat the BREXIT low as a starting point, the FTSE is UP 22% with the AIM only lagging behind at 18%. More importantly, the AIM has not displayed the same dramatics as the FTSE in the period since and has just kept going up. We're seeing this largesse being distributed around AIM members literally on a daily basis and suspect some of the laggard ones are simply waiting their turn at the pump.

Near term, in the event of the AIM bettering just 798 points, we are looking for growth toward 813 points. While in the great scheme of things such a movement is useless, our secondary above 813 will become very real for the longer term at 898 points, matching the highs of 2014. Worse still, it shall move the AIM market into a region where an almost ridiculous long term attraction appears to be 1691 points.

Or in plain English, one heck of a period of growth capable,finally getting some members of this often justifiably ridiculed marketplace back into the blue. We can hope. For now, the AIM market would need execute reversal below 730 points to justify running shoes, a straightjacket, a free ride on a SpaceX rocket...

Finally, we are now accepting adverts at www.trendsandtargets.com and will not moan if anyone explores them. We get paid by click! So far, we have not seen anything objectionable and it appears Google actually do have a clue when directing traffic.

Futures for Friday - thinking an UP day