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Published 30/03/17

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) This is probably the scariest item we produce every week, 'cos it's a near term outlook which a heck of a lot of people pay attention to. There's nothing like the added frisson, heading into a weekend and looking like an idiot. And so, here we go again with a Friday which looks like an UP day on the market but as always, we shall examine both sides of the argument.

But before continuing, we've been looking hard at the datasets for both the real FTSE and FTSE Futures over the last 5 years, noticing something quite surprising in the process. Currently, we are to accept 7450 is a really important number on the index as, should the market now trade above this point, we're supposed to eschew our Big Picture 7520 ambition and now mention 8022 points assumes some reality in the distance. Rather amazingly, to cancel this surprising number, the index only need drip below 7275 points currently. Given it's only trading 90 points north of this stop loss position, it's one heck of a long position for the gullible, insane, or those who trust our software implicitly.

Last year, we produced just one report which suggested printing it out and sticking it on the wall. We're reticent suggesting the same with the foregoing, if only due to the plethora of reports suggesting everything is really stuffed. But if the FTSE gets above 7450, we'll revisit this scenario.

Rather uncomfortably, we're aware Saturday is April Politicians Day and we stress the above is not a joke. Too many folk take us seriously and this suggestion involves real money, never a laughing matter for the 1st April.

The reason for this preface to our near term scenario is we must now take 7450 extremely seriously. If bettered...

Near term, above 7372 points signals coming growth toward 7387 points. As the market closed at 7369, hopefully "they" don't opt to open Friday 31st up above 7387 as this will tend foul the immediate growth potential UNLESS the opening high is bettered within the first 90 minutes. Better still should 7387 be exceeded, rather more useful oomph toward 7430 looks very possible.

We obviously have a number written down above 7430 and hopefully clients who subscribe to our mid-day missive will be appraised of it. Suffice to say, it betters the 7450 thing in earlier paragraphs.

The flip side of the coin comes with any weakness now below 7340 as apparently 7312 can be expected with secondary, if broken, at 7295 points - and a probable bonk against the RED uptrend since last year.  

FUTURES

Published 29/03/17

Just Eat (LSE:JE.) This share price looked pretty doomed for a few days earlier this year but we've a sneaking suspicion it still intends go up a bit before any calamity sets in. Regular readers will be aware of our GaGa nonsense, the phenomena of Gap Down and Up price movements. In the case of Just Eat, it went gaga around the immediate RED uptrend, creating some interesting possibilities.

The amazing (to us) thing about this company comes from a couple of local takeaways here in Argyll with doors decorated with the logo and we're based in the area where the known universe comes to look for its 'a**e'. There's sometimes still a surprise turning on a mobile and find an internet connection present - let alone a provider, and that glow of pleasure when hot water comes out the tap still makes our day!

Our previous article (link here) postulated an upper target of 629 with secondary 670p. It came sufficiently close to the 629 but critically did not better it. This engineered GaGa movement once again signals another attempt at 629 with secondary a slightly better 674p. The "however" is that while GaGa proved devastatingly reliable in 2016, we're not seeing sufficient uses of this manipulation currently to assure us it's certain. If playing safe, waiting till the price betters BLUE - currently 591p - makes some sense.

Unfortunately, the price doesn't need much to turn this optimism to yesterdays pizza as CLOSURE below 550 would once again break the uptrend since 2016, moving the share price into a region where 444 with secondary, if broken, at 388 becomes very possible. The secondary is especially dangerous, trashing the uptrend since the share was listed and producing 183p as a potential "ultimate" bottom!

FUTURES

Published 28/03/17

SIRIUS MINERALS (LSE:SXX) We last glanced at this as a potential ISA contender at the start of February (link here) when we'd moaned about the BLUE downtrend which then was around the 28p mark. The good news, now, is this line is at 21.704p. And for real happy days, we'd prefer the share actually close above this level.

For now, it appears something is potentially happening as near term, above 19.75 suggests coming growth toward 21.25p - not quite a break of BLUE. Secondary, if this is bettered, comes in at 22.75 and the potential for closure in recovery territory.

A funny thing happened on the 28th March. The share price was gapped upward at the open, above an almost 'pretend trend' which we hadn't regarded as significant. But for some reason, the market has a different opinion and therefore, should the share achieve 22.75p we'd anticipate some stutters at such a level. But longer term, in the event of closure above the dark blue line, we'd be looking for movement continuing toward 26.75p and hopefully beyond.

We've painted some ambitious target levels for the future but rather suspect a flow of positive news would be required for them to attain reality.

Finally, if trouble is planned, the share needs fail below 16p to break RED, entering a region where our ultimate bottom is at 8p.

FUTURES

Published 27/03/17

GREAT PORTLAND ESTATES & DEBENHAMS briefs (LSE:GPOR & LSE:DEB) With all the rubbish being discussed about Scotland, our eye was drawn to Great Portland in the mistaken belief it was something to do with Portland Cement, a key ingredient if Westminster journalists are to be believed in their desire Hadrians Wall be rebuilt (also gifting Scotland quite a big chunk of northern England in the process...) 

Alas for our sense of humour, a quick check revealed GPOR appears the wrong company for building materials but it was already too late as we'd run the numbers.

The downtrend (BLUE) since 2015 is quite fascinating as the market appears jumping through hoops to avoid the share price bettering it. The circled manipulation gap downward in the Brexit vote carnage has created a scenario from which the share price has not been permitted recovery, despite the June 24th drop being about as concise possible. The situation now demands CLOSURE above 660p to allow a phase toward 722p initially with secondary a very probable longer term 838p.

In common with quite a few other shares still suffering the Brexit Vote Blues, all it needs do is actually go up.

On the negative side of life, there's a RED line currently at 574p. We'd have considerable alarm if the share price finds an excuse to trade below this level as it appears the first potential bounce point resides at 487p. And of course, if such a level breaks we can get really miserable and mention a logical bottom of 336p!

DEBENHAMS (LSE:DEB) The very visible effort to drive this share price down, again with post-Brexit Vote price manipulation, has not provided many positive signals as the share price has effectively flatlined since. The problem we have with the circled gap is the fact the drop fizzled out. According to our calculations, the share price should have bottomed at 32p if the market was serious about trashing the company but the drop stopped at 51p.

And importantly, didn't really bounce.

The situation now is of weakness below 51p generating an initial 45p and the chance of a recoil with secondary, if broken, at 32p. And, we'd hope, a bounce at least capable of eventually challenging the long term RED uptrend.

In summary, there's little interesting about DEB currently as it needs above 72p (BLUE) before any rise dare be taken seriously. But for the brave of heart, it might be worth keeping a weather eye against in case 45 or 32 make an appearance.

FUTURES

Published 26/03/17

FTSE FOR THE WEEK AHEAD (FTSE:UKX)  Something truly peculiar happened on Friday 24th March but unfortunately you needed watch FTSE futures to see it with perfect clarity. Essentially, from 3pm onward the market behaved as if a decision had been made NOT to allow the FTSE to better a downtrend since the 21st March.

As the evening session progressed, there were no less than 7 bonks against this trend culminating in a death plunge (and miracle recovery) in the final hours before the weekend. Events of this nature are fairly common with AIM shares, common with the retail banks, but as for an entire index, it fell into the "You don't see that every day" category of movement.

What did it all mean?

Aside from the logical conclusion it made an entire stock market behave as if it were under manual control, we rather suspect all we witnessed was software lazily marching on the spot prior to the weekend but it does suggest should the FTSE now better 7346 during trades on Monday, the index should experience an UP day as it betters the BLUE downtrend on the chart. A move such as this should prove capable of triggering slight growth toward 7357 points. And yes, we know this isn't interesting!

What is interesting is shown on the chart as it would propel the index into the fabled land of Higher Highs, suggesting 7400 should make a guest appearance at some point soon, perhaps even 7465 points if things get exciting in the run up to Mrs May delivering a suicide note to Brussels. Or is it a declaration of economic war?

Less solid on the chart is the RED uptrend since February  as a break below this - currently 7307 points - apparently enters a phase toward 7182 points with secondary, if broken, at 7040 points. If intending to inject some sanity into the doze of gloom, it may prove safer waiting to see if the Brexit Vote uptrend at 7280 currently breaks.

FUTURES

Published 23/03/17

FTSE FOR FRIDAY & GULF KEYSTONE (FTSE:UKX & LSE:GKP) We usually try and give ourselves an easy end to the week by 'simply' doing a FTSE near term analysis but GKP is really irritating us (along with most private investors) and is worth a bit of an update. The issue with GKP is simple - the share price is supposed to be getting trashed yet hasn't dropped!

Yet...

While we eschew fundamentals, we're obviously aware GKP are in oils and equally aware the price of BRENT CRUDE is supposed to be dropped quite a bit. Similar to GKP's share price though, BRENT - despite a barrel of arguments favouring a drop - has not yet achieved our drop target of 47.26 on its way down a slippery slope. Equally, GKP is supposed to be favouring 94p or so yet is failing to actually drip with impunity.

On the chart, there's a couple of lines which perhaps are interesting. Firstly, the BLUE one. There's little doubt visually the share price is reacting to this downtrend and generally this is quite a good thing. The implication given is when the market permits the price to actually better BLUE, any rise can be expected to be sharp - today BLUE is at 126.5p. Historically, GKP has proven a bit of a rogue with this sort of nonsense as too often, the price will better a trend and simply match a prior high, then a long boring downslope continues to around the level of a previous low. In fairness, this is the behaviour of a share marching on the spot whilst awaiting game changing news but, extremely successfully, drives investors absolutely crackers due to a plethora of false starts.

Visually, the RED line on the chart is currently around 117p and there can be little doubt closure below such a point suggests coming movement to 94p. Or so...

More likely, if GKP intends repeat its usual mantra, we'll witness movement above 126.5 leading to 141p initially with secondary matching the prior high at around 149p. Only with CLOSURE above 150p dare we hint something important has probably happened and mention 170p and beyond.

Scotland played a football match against Canada the other night and apparently just 9,600 people turned up. More people own shares in GKP, proving conclusively real masochists support Gulf Keystone!

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX)  Near term movement bettering 7344 should provoke some near term growth toward an initial 7355 points with secondary, if bettered at a more useful (later in the day?) 7373 points. If triggered, the market needs shrivel below 7307 to cancel the movement on the immediate cycle. Worse, if the drop tripwire is hit, the FTSE could easily slither down to 7297 initially with secondary, if / when broken at 7281.

The secondary drop target is a pretty serious issue, breaking the uptrend since the Brexit manipulation which currently resides at 7292.342 points or so. Worse, it emplaces the index in a region where 7175 makes some sense.

Longer term, as long as the FTSE continues to actually close above RED, we're still able to suggest 7520 as a major point of interest.

FUTURES

Published 22/03/17

BARCLAYS BANK (LSE:BARC) We always tend hold Barclays in slightly less contempt than the other two retail banks, simply due to the strength with which it recovered from the shambles back in 2009. Alas, as history shows, "how little did we know..." For a giggle, we've given two charts below, one showing BARCLAYS in recent times, another with a bunch of overlays featuring other bank' comparative performance since 2009.

One 'amusing' aspect of this exercise comes from RBS - GOLD - as since the market did its 1/10th trick with the share price, movements are proving volatile and useful whereas LLOYDS - shown in teal - are as boring as heck. One funny aspect comes from Standard Chartered, a share which has more than doubled in price during the last year from its low of 378p. Barclays has almost doubled, RBS gained 70% and Lloyds has gone up a bit... We've been fascinated with STAN for some time, due to it outperforming other sector members. For now, it has fallen back into line but next time the share betters 800p we'd suspect it worth close attention.

And so, BARCLAYS remains tarred with the same brush as RBS & LLOYDS though it consistently outperforms each. The magic number for the share to now better is at 254p, something we've written about repeatedly and something the share has failed attain.

It's fairly critical as should Barclays manage to close above 254p, it joins STAN in the outperforming club and enters a phase where 323p becomes the next major point of interest in the longer term.

The immediate drop cycle calculated with a bounce point around 220.75pm, this being a fairly key point. The danger with any excuse to move below 220p is of coming weakness in 20p dollops. The important 'however' is the RED uptrend since the Brexit vote manipulation as this is currently at 219.414p and just a few days from coinciding with our bounce point potential. As a result, BARCLAYS is probably worth keeping an eye on as usually, when a software projection matches a RED line, a bounce is indeed justified.

FUTURES

Published 21/03/17

LLOYDS BANK (LSE:LLOY) Whatever provoked the misery in market fortunes during the FTSE afternoon session was a bit weird. Generally, when this sort of nonsense happens, we experience a raft of shares with drop triggers being hit. But it didn't happen so therefore, we smell rodent. Even the retail banks, always the first to mimic a Champions League footballer being assaulted by an aggressive buttercup, avoided flinging themselves off a cliff.

Lloyds Bank is a case in point, again!

Our last article (link here) provided criteria for Lloyds to climb to 75p, once it achieved the herculean task of actually closing a session above the BLUE line on the chart. Normal "rules" signal it really wants to reach 75p but even intraday traffic above 71.217p will now suggest it heading to our 75p ambition. Secondary above 75p is now at a longer term

If trouble is planned, the RED line is 67.153p as anything below this is liable to provoke an initial 63.75p with secondary, if broken, around 60p and hopefully a bounce.

We've shown a dashed RED line across the bottom of the chart. To utterly foul up our calculations signalling 75p and beyond, the share price would require to weaken below this level - currently 57p.

For now, it looks safe and boring, a description no longer worthy of a UK retail bank.

FUTURES

Published 20/03/17

Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE:RBS) It's easy to dislike banking shares at present. Everything is in hiatus, feeling like there's a major news event about to happen. Maybe Australia and New Zealand will finally sort out which has the worst accent? We last viewed RBS at the end of last month (link here) and frankly, very little has changed.

The situation remains of a glass ceiling just below the 260p level and the need for the share price to actually close above this point (according to recent behaviour, 258.9 is critical) for the price to "prove" some growth is coming to 277, maybe even 321p.   In fact, if we're generous, we should admit a rather more distant 354p would be on the radar if the share price would just CLOSES above the downtrend since 2008.

But for now, the share price is trapped in an imaginary circus ring with the rest of the clown acts.

Circled on the chart is one of our hated "GaGa" movements, this particular one feeding the price with sufficient force to bottom at 222p. Oddly, despite numerous opportunities the share price has not yet hit the 222p level and now, it appears such a movement would not be the worst thing in the world. Essentially, trades near term below 231p look capable of driving the share down to 222p and a bonk against the downtrend since 2015. In itself, not awfully alarming as the share required slither below this trend to promote alarms, along with trouble in the direction of 205p

For now though, it's boring...

FUTURES

Published 19/03/17

FTSE FOR THE WEEK (FTSE:UKX) It gets boring writing about the doomsayers always being proven wrong by the UK market but apparently we continue to go to "hell in a handcart" while the index' continues to sing from a different songbook. The odd thing, a disturbing number of FTSE 100 components should be going up but are failing to do so and worse, some seem intent on Lemming behaviour.

However, the law of Higher, higher, highs seems to prevail with the index and now, movements above 7448 point at growth coming to 7511 next with secondary, if bettered, somewhere around 7582 points. Once again though, we've issued at the 7520 level as this is a big picture ambition where the market "almost must" pause for breath, if only to gather sufficient oomph for a further push upward. Currently the index needs fail below 7312 points to break RED and risk spoiling the party.

Where does the party end?

We're currently above to calculate a ridiculous looking 8094 somewhere down the line and amazingly, the situation still remains of the index needing below 7312 to shatter such an illusion. Please note, our track record of injecting common sense to balance silly sounding ambitions historically leaves us with egg on our faces, essentially "the computer" tending to be right. In this instance, "the computer" still points out 7520 as capable of some stutters.

Near term, if it all going a bit wrong, the FTSE needs fail below 7410 to drip out the immediate uptrend and enter a cycle toward 7357 apparently. Secondary if broken is allegedly 7270 points but given the RED uptrend, we'd suspect a bounce before such a point. As always, the problem remains of short positions underperforming due to the strength of an uptrend. Only once RED breaks dare we suspect trouble ahead.

This week, we shall cover the retail banks as we suspect their lack of performance may yet be the harbinger of trouble for the FTSE - essentially if they ain't goin' up, they risk goin' down!

FUTURES

Published 16/03/17

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) The UK market continues to befuddle the 'experts', all of whom know BREXIT, TRUMP and the SCOTLAND thing are really trashing the markets and believe the markets only paint new highs out of spite. It's really quite odd, though nothing like as odd as the price of BRENT Crude. This product is behaving really oddly but below 51.125 would doubtless now present a sensible short entry with a tight stop.

If course, if BRENT settled on a path potentially toward 40, it would tend foul the potentials of the oiler section of the FTSE, giving the index a pretty reliable reason to trash itself a bit. Similarly, the banks have failed join in the markets flamboyance but movements in the last couple of sessions are giving the first hints the retail banks may be waking up.

For The FTSE, near tern above 7445 points at 7461 points on the FTSE with secondary, if bettered, now at 7505 points. Recalling we've a Big Picture ambition at 7520, this would appear to be propelling the index to a stutter level. If triggered above 7445, the index needs below 7387 to scupper the immediate upward scenario.

If the market were to flop below 7387, we'd be looking for weakness to 7362 initially with secondary if broken at 7300 points. We'd suggest some caution with these numbers due to the strength of the current underlying uptrend.

Another aspect of the current games being played relates to movements at the open of the day. Any spike, either UP or DOWN, dare not be taken seriously unless the initial number is bettered within the first 90 minutes. Our reason for mentioning this is the danger of the FTSE opening UP at 7445 points or so. We'd watch very closely for this being bettered before believing the markets intend some growth for the day.

FUTURES

Published 15/03/17

BHP BILLITON (LSE:BHP) Surely many folk read this share' name and immediately long for South Africa and decent Biltong. Which, despite that countries mining history, is daft as they're a bunch of Aussies. And their share price seems to be digging a hole for itself.

The chart below is pretty self explanatory,

There has been an uptrend since June 2016 and the share price has just been manipulated below it. As the inset highlights, it appears the market is not planning any recovery anytime soon as the price exhibits behaviour redolent of a bunch of folk erroneously thinking "this is cheap" in the face of a pretty obvious market movement. [tip: unless there's a miracle, if a price is manipulated below a trend, it generally gives a cast iron guarantee the share faces a bit of a stuffing. The market has enacted the first step of a cunning plan!]

Unless BHP somehow manages to actually close a session above RED, we rather strongly suspect the immediate price cycle faces some travel to around 1150p before any bounce of substance can be hoped. Our secondary layer of misery, should the price close a session below 1149p, is at 815p, a point at which it almost "must" bounce.

What we find utterly horrific about this scenario comes from the detail we just suggested the price once again faces a visit to the area reminiscent not only of 2015 but worse, 2009 when everything went to hell in a handbasket. About the only saving grace for BHP is the dashing RED line along the bottom of the screen, the uptrend since 1998 and currently at 600p.

So, what does this major miner need do to get out of this mess?

Where should we look for early signs of hidden strength and vegemite?

Given the share is currently trading around 1290, it actually does not need achieve much to give an early signal of an Easter miracle. In the event of it somehow starting to trade above 1315p we'll be forced to raise an eyebrow as this gives the first potential bottom may actually be "in" and further growth toward 1362p can be hoped for. This would again return the share price above RED, cover the recent manipulation gap, and imply the drop out of the trend was fake, one of these features of the marketplace designed to fuel the blood-pressure industry.

Better still, once above 1362 we'd be forced to mention 1487p and the chance of the price actually bettering the ruling downtrend. In this instance, we need brew a fresh tin of tea and look at the leaves.

If we'd to guess, it's not going to happen. A solid movement such as this below an uptrend tends only to have one consequence. Guess they're not called diggers for nothing!

FUTURES

Published 14/03/17

THE FRENCH CONNECTION (LSE:FCCN)  When the markets are a bit flat, we welcome emails regarding shares in the news though, following Laura Ashley, were surprised at a further clothing company appearing in our mailbox. French Connection is a bit surprising as, in theory, the share price is sitting with a bottom potential at 3p.

However (engage: teacher mode) movements this year have been a bit interesting. To be honest, drawing lines on charts can frequently be a waste of time but when we scrawl a BLUE line since the highs of 2004 to current, something interesting is going on.

The spike on February 1st 2017 was fairly significant. As the inset shows, it propelled the share price above the downtrend since 2004 with a pretty flamboyant 25% day. Better still, in the period since the share price has illustrated rather careful consideration against this 13 year old downtrend and this often hints the market has other ideas for the price future. Unfortunately, the level of control exhibited tends suggest this intends head to a bottom and hopefully a bounce at 30p on the immediate price cycle.

About the only argument legislating against this drop will be moves above 38p triggering growth toward 42p initially with secondary an important 49.5p and a bonk against the downtrend since 2011. Only with closure above this trend can we date mention a longer term 70p.

On the flip side, it would need shrink below 21p to commence a path to 3p, a number we cannot calculate anything below.

Finally, amazing to realise the original film was released in 1971 !

FUTURES

Published 13/03/17

ABERDEEN ASSET MNGMT & LAURA ASHLEY (LSE:ADN & LSE:ALY)   We listed this pair as potential ISA candidates back in February. Aberdeen Asst (ADN) is currently trading around 280p, priced at our original mutter (link here) being 265p.

ADN has recently started some movement which is of interest, worthy of comment.  Essentially, should the share now trade above 309p, we'd be looking for fairly near term growth toward 334p initially with secondary, if bettered, at a longer term 376p. As the chart highlights, the BLUE downtrend since 2015 appears extremely relevent and a break now above is liable to move pretty firmly.

Once again, we'd hope "the Scottish thing" fails to impact on the company share price potentials. Below RED - currently 245p - would tend foul our optimism pretty thoroughly.

LAURA ASHLEY (LSE:ALY)  Rather amusingly, we've this lot included in 'Our ISA' table but cannot find a report compiled against the share which provided future potentials. Perhaps this is just as well given we're showing it was viewed at 18p and the share price is now trading around 16p.

Worse, the price was recently forced below the long term uptrend (circled), entering a phase where weakness now below 14.5p points at 11.5p next with secondary if (when) broken at an ultimate bottom of 9p. We're calling this an 'ultimate' 'cos we cannot calculate a number below such a point without prefacing it with a minus sign.

With Laura Ashley. there's a major "thing" which fascinates us and it's shown in BLUE since 1996. For the last couple of years the share price has been reacting to a trend since 1996 and there's little doubt any movement now above BLUE is liable to promote fireworks as a 21 year old trend being bettered is liable to provide a celebration!

The implication now is the price needs trade above 19p to indicate something happening as movement toward 21p initially looks sane with secondary a very probable 27p. Then we need review the tea leaves...

 FUTURES

Published 12/03/17

FTSE FOR THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX)  Sometimes, a considerable amount of time is spent compiling our Sunday evening article for the coming week. And sometimes, when it's re-read prior to publication, a wonderful essay on the markets & slave labour, society, and the future gets binned. We're not economists nor even civilised at T&T. All we do are numbers and shouldn't speculate why the FTSE may reach 10,195 points. But our software says we should mention it.

Rather often, we find ourselves writing "okay, this is probably silly but..." with it transpiring our calculation wasn't silly, emphasising we should just discuss the numbers and ignore the potential for ridicule.

Apparently, if the FTSE now CLOSES a session above 7393 points OR trades intraday above 7408 points, it enters a path toward 8186 points with secondary a longer term 10,195. Stop, if triggered, can now be at a tightest 7220 points if feeling gullible.

The implication behind this statement, about which we have no opinion, is one of underlying strength, so we need look for anything capable of triggering this set of circumstances. Near term, if the FTSE trades above 7373 points, we are looking for growth toward an initial 7398 points with secondary, if bettered, at 7443 points.

And this takes the UK market into the future growth zone, essentially above Marty McFly's car trigger zone. Better still, our other Big Picture argument favouring some stutters around 7520 comes enters the top of our screens.

How do we spot it all going wrong?

Visually last week 'felt' as if an effort were being made to stop the markets going up but currently, the FTSE needs fall below 7270 to justify concern as this permits catastrophic failure to a gullible looking 7235. The reason we'd experience collywobbles at such a number is the implied near term bonk against the RED uptrend, along with an implied threat of 7160 points. Or even 7085 if it all starts going wrong swiftly.

At such a level, we'd need revisit the numbers again due to the threat of a further 300 point droop.

For now though, the markets look rather strong.

FUTURES

Published 09/03/17

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX)  Before launching into a tirade as to Fridays immediate potentials, we always start with a glance at the Big Picture and noticed something quite interesting for the FTSE. Essentially, if it now were to close a session above 7393, it enters a cycle toward 8186 initially with secondary 10195 points.  Stop can be just 7201 points.

If the FTSE were a share, we'd already be thinking it intends hit 8186 in the fullness of time but this, probably, isn't one to print out and stick on the wall. (just yet)

But we shall cover this scenario in our next report for the coming week. It's impossible to ignore the market tends grow in the face of negative media commentary by (increasingly less respected) analysts, so we're taking a look upward.

However, our analysis for the FTSE on Friday provides the immediate report - as always, please remember we are discussing the FTSE and NOT after hours FTSE futures.

The FTSE closed Thursdays session at 7316 points with movements during the day providing a surprising degree of encouragement for Friday. The immediate situation suggests anything near term above 7322 points should provoke a fairly boring 7334 points but the secondary, if bettered, is at 7358 points. If triggered, stop can be at a fairly wide 7265 points. Or if insane, 7295 points as this is the tightest possible game plan. And of course, if the day goes nuts for any reason, 7440 is shown at the top of the chrat!

On the flip side of the coin, what happens if 7265 breaks?

We'd expect initial weakness toward 7246 points with secondary, if broken, at 7186 points. The tightest stop is at 7312 points.

FUTURES

Published 08/03/17

ARGOS RESOURCES (LSE:ARG)  For a budget day, the market proved remarkably placid with the FTSE closing unchanged. While the usual "wait 24 hours" rule will doubtless apply until folk digest what was actually said, we'd submit that should the FTSE trade above 7361 on Thursday that things are liable to become upwardly interesting. But what happened with BRENT CRUDE is liable to derail things, along with some of the minor share prices.

ARGOS RESOURCES is one we've never run the numbers against but a quick scan revealed an immediate problem. Absolute bottom on this share calculates at 6.02p, a number it broke at the start of 2015 and reaching a low of 3.5 in the period since. But crucially, it's still trading, albeit firmly below the 6p level with price movements almost looking completely automated.

From our perspective, we'd be inclined to pay attention quite closely if any miracle returns this share price above 6p as growth to an initial 7.5p should follow, perhaps even 11.25 if the movement is boosted with positive news.

The funny thing is, back in August 2016 the share price sleepwalked through the ruling downtrend and has done nothing since. Often this is simply a straightforward sign of a company awaiting positive news but at least the price is now in a zone where things could move very fast. Unfortunately, by trading below 6p, it remains in a region where negative news could utterly trash the share as we cannot calculate a target without prefacing it with a minus sign.

For now, even a mid-price above 5.5p would provide sufficient reason to raise an eyebrow, indicating something positive about to happen!

FUTURES

Published 07/03/17

JUBILEE PLAT. (LSE:JLP) Here's the link - again - to our potential 1/4 million pound trade article exclusively for Interactive Investor. Basically, a trade at £100 per point would have yielded a blooming good result with a negligible stop loss. And to confirm, it was THE ONLY article for 2016 where we said "Print it and stick on the wall! " As can be guessed, we've received a lot of emails regarding the analysis and our gobs remain smacked.

Equally, our recent article on AFC Energy' potentials appears to have been well received but we doubt our immediate thoughts on Jubilee's immediate prospects will make folk terribly happy. Essentially, should JLP mid-price now trade below 5.575p, we'd anticipate coming weakness toward 4.75p.  While this is not scary, the influence of the RED uptrend hopefully will provoke a bounce as movement below RED enters the danger zone as we're showing 3.1p as possible.

However, we'd prefer exhibit some optimism here as the big picture doesn't suck.

The recent spike to 7.5p was fairly significant, showing a "higher high" and now suggesting closure above 6.5p should herald growth toward 8.25 initially with secondary a very probable 10.75p. It makes us suspect any near term shenanigans toward 4.75p can probably be regarded with favour as a potential entry point.

Good luck.

FUTURES

Published 06/03/17

AFC Energy (LSE:AFC) We last covered this share back in 2015 and expressed some reservations about its potentials, being particularly paranoid of what risked happening if the share price closed a session below 35.25p. Unusually, we're NOT giving a link to the prior article, not because it was wrong but rather, in amazement of Interactive Investor letting us get away with something so rude.

Thankfully, our sense of ridiculous has evolved (slightly) but we're still not entirely convinced AFC has stopped "extracting the **** ". Which gives a clue to the content of the prior article.

To slip into teacher mode, the share price is displaying some quite rare behaviour. Currently trading around the 13p mark, the 'dashed blue' line on the chart is giving us problems. It displays share closing prices since December 13th last year and this suggests we cannot take any price growth seriously until such time the share CLOSES a session above 16.089p currently. As the 'dashed blue' line is descending at roughly 0.089p per day, by 28 days time the share price will be forced to do something.

This is where the problem arises as it seems anything now below 12.75 risks triggering weakness toward 10p with secondary, if broken, at 7.75p and hopefully a bounce. But something worth considering is the RED uptrend since 2009. Currently, this trend is just about at the 10p level and we'd strongly suspect a bunch of folk, if seeing the share price at 10p, will assume it a buy opportunity and jump in, thus creating an early bounce! We can hope.

As always with our little bundle of misery, we've a "however" and in this case it's quite interesting.

While CLOSURE above 16p is needed to signal the share has really slipped its shackles, if we disregard such a signal and rely on our software, apparently trades now above 15p should prove capable of generating 17p and a bonk against the downtrend since 2015 (when we were last being quite rude). Our secondary, if such a target is bettered, comes in at 21.75p along with the need to re-run the numbers - some of the future potentials will be worth mentioning.

FUTURES

Published 05/03/17

FTSE FOR THE WEEK (FTSE:UKX)  Friday was irritating. It's one thing to speculate "all the action will happen at the open", quite another to glance at the FTSE at 8:01am and discover all the days action had already happened. Our drip target of 7350 was, crucially, NOT broken with the day low proving to be 7353 points and thus, some strength remains.

So, we start March in a strong position with nothing major politically on the horizon. Aside, of course, from a UK Budget this week, the Scots expected to announce IR#2, and the UK triggering Brexit negotiations later in the month. Nothing major then...

But by 3 points, our drop target was not broken and therefore our outpouring of optimism is justified for the UK marketplace.

It's a wee bit crackers, not to say frustrating, the continuous small false starts keep altering our projections but the current situation holds out some room for hope. The immediate situation is fairly simple insofar as anything above 7400 points at coming growth to 7450 initially with secondary, if bettered, at 7570 points. We're still not dreadfully comfortable with that secondary due to The Big Picture demanding 7520 as a major point of interest. To cancel this apparent cycle to 7570, the index needs below 7240 points.

So, what happens if 7240 breaks?

Maybe nothing! Last year, with the Brexit Vote, the market broke trends downward immediately and a similar doom was dealt with the Trump vote. But neither instance proved "honest, reliable, or truthful" as the market exhibited strong growth in the days afterward. It begs the obvious, dare we trust any drop following this weeks Budget, the following weeks SNP conference, or the coming Article 50 declaration?

Our inclination will be to hold fire on any hysterics until seeing the FTSE below 7080 points. This would prove to be a bad thing, allowing coming weakness toward 6970 initially with secondary a very possible 6840 points.

For now, in the absence of anything actually proven to be dangerous, the market looks blooming strong.

Finally, we've knocked together something about the DOW JONES rise recently. It's at this link.

FUTURES

Published 02/03/17 

THE DOW, THE FTSE, THE AIM, FROGS AND THE FUTURE... It's not often we get to link Frogs with the stock market but we've noticed over the years that when the UK has some decent weather, the stock markets tend to prove quite buoyant and interesting. Probably 'cos people feel better and optimistic on sunny days... A forestry track locally has some deep ruts which invariably fill with water. Very early in February, these ruts were also full of frog spawn, a month earlier than usual. It suggests frogs are expecting the ruts to dry out by end of April, therefore hinting at good weather ahead. It's amazing how often this country bumpkin stuff works out!

Thus, this might not be a "sell in May and go away" year.

AIM MARKET (FTSE:AXX) Our last 'Big Picture' diatribe about the UK's AIM market was December last year (link here) where we'd proposed coming growth toward 900 points, maybe even 996 points if everything turned out okay. The AIM is now trading around 910 points and so, our prediction of a 13% rise has come to fruition. Better still, our initial target level was bettered, and so despite some near term stutters, our longer term 996 has become a valid obsession. To slow the immediate upward cycle down, the market needs below 800. And to crush our hope for the future, it needs below 704 points.

Absolutely critical in this recovery of the AIM market will be the day it closes above 970 points as this will point at a future 1245 points, matching the highs of 2007 and doubtless pretty useful for many AIM market constituents. Hopefully the frogs know a thing or two...

THE DOW JONES (DOWi;DJI) Last October we produced twin predictions exclusively on Interactive Investor about the DOW and the FTSE (link here) and suggested they be printed out and kept. And in the best traditions of Trends and Targets, we promptly forgot about 'em until a few emails arrived. Long story short, we'd proposed 20525 as a major target for the DOW and 7218 as a major point of interest for the FTSE. At the time, the markets were 18150 for the DOW and 6996 for the FTSE.

This is one of these situations where we were proven correct but from our stance, it's more interesting reviewing what actually happened when our target was achieved. In the case of the DOW it was quite telling. The index hit our target level and stuttered for a week, then on Feb 21st the market was gapped higher in a clear indication there was a belief a future high note could be hit.

So, where is that high note?

If the DOW now betters 21125 we calculate further climbs to 21277 are possible. Then the market must obviously collapse - except it probably will not. The USA has 'form' in simply jumping obstacles by gapping the index up and thus, above 21277 now provokes 21617 points.

The DOW JONES is already trading at levels 'respected' analysts believed impossible but we're going to stick our neck out and suggest if this index every actually achieves 21617 points, then rushing out to open a short with a fairly tight stop might not be the silliest notion. Our reasoning is simple.

The calculation which gives 21617 is based on the low of March 2009 when the DOW JONES hit 6470. While our formula for extrapolating the future proves extraordinarily reliable (most of the time) it simply cannot currently give any number above 21617 with any confidence. Essentially the index requires some volatility to generate oomph for a future beyond such a level. The alternative may also prove true - our program skills may be missing something - an obligatory caveat.

With shares, usually an "ultimate top" number will provoke a period of stutters and false starts, then a droop to (hopefully) bounce against the immediate uptrend. In the case of the DOW, this uptrend is currently at 20300 points.

Time will tell. Entirely up to the reader whether this is printed out and kept. It's just - currently - above 21617 will leave us uncomfortably clueless until we figure out where the heck the new trend is!

and finally...

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) Our twice weekly FTSE mutters are proving popular articles this year, something we feel both intimidated and irritated about. Intimidated, 'cos we're not infallible, irritated 'cos the same level of work is applied to shares covered in the headline section. For instance, our recent 11 shares covered for this years ISA bundle are collectively up 4.5% in just a few weeks. Unusually, we remembered to create a specific table for just these shares and shall revisit them a few times as the year progress'.

The FTSE closed Thursday at 7385, managing to achieve an exceedingly boring day. We'd alarm bells ringing due to the opening spike toward 7394 as it felt this would enable weakness toward 7350 - nothing terribly alarming for a Thursday. Instead the day proved becalmed but anything now below 7374 is expected to visit 7350 initially. If triggered, stop needs be above 7387 at its tightest. In fact, this is almost too much of a gift horse as the secondary, if 7350 breaks, is at 7338 points.

The market rarely gifts a 36 point drop which only requires a 13 point stop. Maybe all the action will occur at 8am when the FTSE opens?

It's perhaps worth recalling the underlying market pressure remains upward on the FTSE as we started the week proposing 7425 as a pretty important point of interest. Near term, we're forced to change our tune a bit as above 7395 looks capable of 7448 points initially with secondary now coming in at 7566. We're not terribly impressed with the secondary as 7520 presents itself as a major stutter level in any rise.

None of the above is particularly earthshaking and the RED line on the chart is currently at 7093.87 points, this being the accurate level of the trend since the Brexit vote thing.

FUTURES

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February 2017 Ferrari Sound Proton Power SIRIUS_SXX Esure A)O World CARD Factory Gulf Keystone BMR RENTokill BARCLAYS LLOYDS RBS

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October16 Includes FTSE GBPEUR RBS Barclays The Dow Jones Ferrari Lloyds GOLD Strategic Minerals BMR PLUS500 DOW AGAIN Gulf Keystone Hurricane Countrywide Vodafone Zoldav

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