October16 Includes FTSE GBPEUR RBS Barclays The Dow Jones Ferrari Lloyds GOLD Strategic Minerals BMR PLUS500 DOW AGAIN Gulf Keystone Hurricane Countrywide Vodafone Zoldav

30th October 2016

FTSE for the week and a ramble about the DOW (FTSE:UKX & DOWi:DJI)  The DOW has been excruciately boring for a while, presumably while the free world awaits the results of an election. We're also mildly curious about what will happen. In the UK, despite a hostile media trashing the current Labour leader, he won by a landslide. Obviously the USA is different (or is it?) and the constant negative campaign against the one with Boris' hair will doubtless cost him the campaign...

The DOW JONES currently faces a dilemma around 18309.1 points. If the US market betters such a point, there's an enhanced expectation it's about to surge to around 18440 points in a clear indication the election hiatus has ceased. In such an event, our secondary of 18707 makes a lot of sense, despite painting a shiny new all time high for the American market. This would be a really big deal, triggering our law of Higher Highs and forcing us to mention 20525 as the real long term attraction.

We know some folk print this stuff out (and quote it back to us) so perhaps this is one worth printing and sticking on the wall. But do remember if below 18,000 points all calculations get tossed!

The FTSE was a bit off colour on Friday. It broke our 6942 and bounced, exactly at our initial target. The movement was only worth 15 points at best but importantly, as 6927 was not broken, we've slight hope the index will do something to escape this zone which has a bottom at 6480 points. Reinforcing this gullibility is the bounce from 6927 bettered our 7001 trigger by 5 points as the day ground to a close to we're supposed to evince optimism for Monday.

The situation now is of movement above 7007 bringing a visit to an initial 7021 points. Secondary, if initial bettered, calculates as 7058 points. In fact, we're being a bit "Monday" with that secondary as the market could easily overshoot by a further 35 points or so. If such were to happen, it would now appear growth such as proposed which gets close to the 7100 level will easily place the FTSE in a region where the next major point of interest is now 7218 points.

Perhaps it shall be an interesting week with fireworks...

Of course, the converse remains. Anything now breaking 6927 allows an initial 6908 with secondary 6851 points. And this is a major problem as the market will be in a region where 6730 presents itself as a major attraction.

As usual, we shall update if the market gets outside these parameters during the week.

RANDOM FUTURES

27th October 2016

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX), STERLING, & ZOLDAV (LSE:ZOL) Our whinge regarding "alphabet days" certainly struck a chord with a few folk, especially those who feel the latter half of the alphabet doesn't get a fair shake. We're almost relieved Xcite, at the wrong end of the alphabet, was put out of our misery rather than the nonsense continuing below 1p, giving prolonged fake levels of hope for private investors. We'd suspect rather a lot of Gulf Keystone investors are braced for the worst.

The FTSE for Friday - remember we are taking about the market during trading hours - looks like it has potential for an UP day. It closed the 27th at 6986 and need only better 7001 points to signal the surprising potential of a lift toward 7020 points, possibly even 7053 points. In fact, if we're honest, there's sufficient numeric strength to allow for 7119 points if everything goes nuts.

Which is quite apt, given it's Halloween weekend and for some reason, all our local shops appear to have decided nuts are a core part of the rubbish.

Rather oddly, the last couple of sessions have seen the FTSE experience a very orderly climb with the surge above 7000 at 9am on the 27th almost looking like the market had lost control for a few minutes. The surge was rewarded with an equally vivid reversal which placed the market in a climb which suggests the FTSE needs crumble below 6941 to cancel. As a result, there's a viable stop loss point should any upward movement be triggered. Pretty wide but sane!

So, what do we expect happen if 6942 breaks?

Famine, pestilence, the usual. Or more possible, weakness toward 6927 initially with secondary 6908 points but there's a rather more important issue attempting to make itself known. The BREXIT growth curve (RED) has now failed and this creates a situation where any weakness is liable to outperform. This is where we've a very really worry about our 7053 target potential upward as it simply bonks against the immediate downtrend (BLUE) and fails to lift the market back into the realms of sanity.

From a Big Picture perspective, if the FTSE were a share, we'd be unpleasantly comfortable suggesting it's about to weaken to 6768 points with secondary 6480. Who knows, maybe it's just the market throwing a scare into us due to the time of year. After all, some members of the banking sector are starting to look quite positive for a change. Also STERLING has just about extracted itself from a logic pointing at parity on the immediate drop cycle. If the pairing betters 1.1246, we'll be fairly happy it's really strengthening toward 1.15 and hopefully beyond.

ZOLDAV (LSE:ZOL) Justifies our visit to the boring end of the alphabet where nothing happens. Unless the share is ZOLDAV as it's experienced a bit of a hammering. Currently the share price needs better 23p simply to escape a logic path toward 9p. It's trading at 18.5p and we're painfully aware this proposes the price halving yet again. The serious danger starts should 9p break as we effectively run out of numbers.

However, the share price occasionally exhibits some surprising movements and if it were to better 23p, we'd be looking for some growth toward 31p initially. Secondary, should such a level be bettered, is at 40p. And the prospect of being messed around by a glass ceiling for a while.

Finally, well done to Interactive Investor on finally introducing their Twitter logo across the corporate website. A huge improvement on corporate identity and the designer deserves a pat on the back. In our opinion, having once again looked at our grotty logo attempts...

FUTURES

26th October 2016

VODAFONE (LSE:VOD) There are days when it feels the stock market is going through the motions and Wednesday 25th certainly fulfilled any criteria for boredom. If we're honest, it was an alphabet day, one where it appears the focus of absolutely everyone trading was, broadly speaking, on the A to M's. This sort of rubbish happens fairly often. Tuesday, a similar feeling day, dealt with the N-Z's!

Because we monitor so many shares, when we scan what's happened on a day, a preponderance of alerts on any half of our screen gives a pretty solid clue that our evening is about to be wasted, essentially confirming thoughts already given. As can be assumed, we utterly hate periods like this. It's almost as if everyone is awaiting something important happening - perhaps Brexit, perhaps an announcement of new toilet paper in the Kremlin's loo.

Hearing on the radio ; VODAFONE were to be fined millions for incompetence, we eagerly anticipated the share breaking free from its recent slumber and doing something interesting.

It didn't.

The price needs better 237 currently to convince of a serious rise or drop a line below 209 to disconnect from reality. It. Did. Nothing. Perhaps this indicates residual strength, when faced with bad news. It results in the situation where, if anything near term above 227.6p betters 230p, we shall suspect it getting ready to become useful as the secondary is at 239.8p. The implication behind such a secondary ambition will be of the downtrend since last year breaking and the share price moving into a region where a long term 262p becomes viable, challenging the highs of 2015.

Currently trading around 226p, the price needs fail below 220p to raise an eyebrow as this signals weakness coming to 213p. In itself, not entirely threatening but our secondary if such a point breaks calculates at 196p and a break of the immediate uptrend. Worse, in such a region, bad news could drive 150p swifter than Vodafone inflict a price change.

But for now, it remains trading in a region where the stock market seems content to play Alphabet games.

FUTURES

25th October 2016

HURRICANE ENERGY (LSE:HUR) We last reported on this in September (link here) and judging by the emails received, something has been happening. But not a lot. The situation remains demanding the price better 44.5p before we dare believe it's starting to move and a visit to 46p looks pre-ordained rather quickly.

Our secondary, should 46p be bettered, remains at 51p and critically, closure above 51p would emplace the price firmly in territory for a longer term 68 or perhaps even 81p.

But as the chart highlights, the share price seems to have stalled in the 40's and we've seen this happen rather a lot recently. When a price gets a target level which was a major point of interest, rather than dramatic volatility, the expected period of stutters has tended to be muted boredom. In the case of HUR, due to it actually closing above our 38p level, we're fairly hopeful something is coming but we're unwilling to commit to optimism until such time 44.5p is bettered.

If some misery is planned, the share price currently needs drizzle below 36.5p to signal a slowdown. In such a triggering movement, it appears a non threatening 31.5p is expected. The computer claims if such a level breaks, we should prep for 22p but visually we'd suspect some grotty news would be recovered.

It's the hurricane season, so hopefully some optimism will be rewarded.

Random Futures

24th October 2016

COUNTRYWIDE (LSE:CWD) has been the subject of rather a few emails recently. The primary cause appears to be a belief the share price has probably bottomed at 2 quid and therefore, this is a safe entry level. At time of writing, it closed the day at 202p.

Unfortunately, the computer does not agree!

From a software perspective, this needs currently better 280p (BLUE) to cancel a logical target at 170p, this being a point around which some sort of bounce can be hoped. The problem comes if the share CLOSES a session below 169p as apparently the final bottom should be at 127p.

This is one of the funny things about share price movements - and a reason we assiduously avoid terms like "SUPPORT" and "RESISTANCE". Neither term has any basis in fact, just a vague supposition amongst some traders that a particular price level is important. Despite Countrywide flouncing around the 2 quid level for most of October, we suspect it will prove to be simply a state of mind. Our problem comes from 230p level.

This was our previous drop target, one achieved following the Brexit vote. Unfortunately, it broke and therefore our suspected next drop target is 170p and ideally the share shall experience a bounce with rather more ambition than that experienced when our 230 thing hit.

As for the current fascination with 200p, despite a fairly frothy market, we suspect the next "Buy Me" sign will present itself at 170p. As for whether any resultant bounce betters BLUE is obviously the big question as 355p calculates as an initial upward surge target.

RANDOM FUTURES

23rd October 2016

FTSE THIS WEEK. (FTSE:UKX) For the last few weeks, our daily comments regarding shares needing updated have tended to be quite terse, something gotten away with due to the volumes needing covered. We're not immune from appreciating being "wordy" can be a nuisance, when faced with 20+ updates. However, our outlook for Monday 24th needed padding, due to a paucity of updates being required and there's little doubt Friday, essentially, was a flat stinker of a day.

The reason for our lack of wordy updates was simple. Regular readers know we're based in Argyll, Scotland. One facet of this is "surprise visits" and we've a strategy to keep some visitors occupied while we concentrate on the markets. The bloke hasn't been invented who doesn't want to use an axe, a two person saw, or a chainsaw and the attraction of being pointed at a particular tree generally will keep someone busy for a day or two. The visitor from two weeks ago spent a week dicing a Beech tree, then got utterly carried away slicing up a few large redwoods which fell during the storm of late 2012. Another attraction for visitors is telling 'em to toss the sliced trees over the cliff beside the waterfall.

Our recent visitor managed to sing "I'm a lumberjack" several times too often for comfort. And was even inventing new verses.

At the end of his first week, he innocently asked, "where do you keep this stuff?" and wasn't impressed when viewing the tarpaulin and bricks which get chucked over the log pile.

Once he was assisted raising the roof on our new "Log Drying Shed", it was the end of week 2 and we really felt the need to return to boring readers with wordy market explanations. But of course, the market completed the 21st with a seriously uninteresting day and only 6 shares needed an update. But we do have sufficient firewood for the next couple of winters and the odd ice-age! And a suspicion we should avail ourselves more of the area and perhaps spend less time viewing the scenery from the office windows.

Thankfully, while entertaining our guest, the FTSE has been pretty rangebound despite Friday making a trigger which should have reached 7080 points. The ruse faded by 1/2 way up, always an alarming signal as we feel once something gets more than half way to target, the debate is over and target will appear. In the case of an upward movement, this is a bit scary as it created the risk that, should the FTSE slip below 6986 points, it enters a path toward 6950 initially. Secondary, if 6950 breaks is at 6870 points.

We always tend think of Fridays as being optimistic days but given the way the market fizzled, we've reasonable concerns for the coming week.

What's strange about all this misery was, despite the rise fading away at 7060 points, the resultant drop came nowhere close to triggering proper reversals and now, the FTSE need only better 7059 points to suggest coming growth to 7115 points initially with secondary, if bettered, at 7180 points.

As always, we shall issue an update should the market dither outwith the above parameters.

FUTURES

20th October 2016

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) Whatever shambles occurred during the afternoon session on the markets didn't just roil the UK market. It was used worldwide to trash very many market positions, leaving us with the visual impression that despite the surge being forced backward, the markets really want to go up another step. There can be little doubt that should the FTSE better 7048 points, an initial 7080 points makes quite a lot of sense.

Secondary, should 7080 be bettered calculates at 7125 which, if achieved, would give the UK market a pretty solid 100 point Friday.

Will it happen?

As the chart below illustrates, the market needs below 6975 (RED) to generate concern as this permits an initial visit to 6935 with secondary, if broken at 6870 points. For now, despite it increasingly appearing the premier free market of the world appearing poised to elect a Muppet as President, some optimism is possible against the FTSE for the near future.

(Having watched the recent debate, the real question is which candidate's the real Muppet...)

FUTURES

19th October 2016

GULF KEYSTONE UPDATED (LSE:GKP) In the department of odd stories, few things were odder than something I learned this week. Unless, of course, you were a turkey. A chum has a turkey farm in Ireland. A UK supermarket chain needed a batch of turkeys and his were the correct age. He has now a free range turkey vacancy as they bought his entire stock. The reason for the massive sale is a new belief that turkeys will be in demand due to Halloween...

This was simply an anecdote and has absolutely no bearing on todays subject, Gulf Keystone. Cannot wonder why anyone would think of GKP in a conversation about turkeys.

Clients are aware against Gulf Keystone we've a red line at 0.8p. It doesn't mean the company will go pop if below 0.8p, just that our software prefaces every number with a minus sign. From our perspective, GKP is stuffed below such a point and we're perfectly aware we could be wrong. But we'd only, if forced, bet money we were prepared to say goodbye to.

Our opinion is the AIM Regulators should have asked questions about GKP movements around 120p. They should have been kicking in doors around 50p. And by 20p, some of the folk posting exuberant comments on public discussion forums should have had their IP address' logged. From our perspective, this is a nightmare of the worst order as we've kept hoping for the best while preparing for the worst.

Meanwhile, we've been following a few discussion forum and wonder who this bloke BOD is. It seems in rather a few OIL sector shares and GOLD sector shares, quite a lot of folk want to find BOD and put him against a wall.

Currently, Gulf Keystone has a BLUE downtrend we think will prove pertinent. It's currently around 1.771p mid-price, so we need look for reasons capable of growing the share above this level to indicate it has probably stopped going down. Thankfully, the period of relative calm recently has produced a suggestion the share price need only trade above 1.41p to indulge a path toward 1.8p. therefore bettering the immediate ruling downtrend. Our secondary, if such a level is bettered, is at 2.15p and looks like a nuisance given it simply returns the share price to the point of indecision which ruled September.

About the only good news available, should the share somehow trade above 2.15p, movements are liable to be sharp as 3p is very easy to propose. But unfortunately, for now there remains an issue and it's germane to our opening comment. Turkeys don't fly...

FUTURES

18th October 2016

BMR GROUP PLC (LSE:BMR) Our last glance at BMR (link here) had postulated 6.75 initially with secondary 7.25p. Anyone who's been reading our occasional reports against this absurdly "popular" share will be aware we've some reservations just above the 6.75p level.

The situation now is quite interesting. In the last few sessions, the share price has repeatedly tickled and bettered the 6.75p level but the 17th was the first time it closed bang on target. The colourful chart below has quite a tale to tell, one which dates back to the share suspension being lifted at the start of 2015. It appears there was massive interest in shares when it started trading again and every time the price hit the retrade levels, a bunch of folk turned into BABE's (Bail at Break Even).

Visually, this has happened three times so we hope the wimps have all left the building as the price is once again challenging the 7p level. Certainly, there have now been three sessions with little sign of panic selling, so the situation remains of closure above 6.9p suggesting a new phase of price recovery has commenced. Backing this up, the share price closed the 17th above the BLUE downtrend since relisting, so it's officially fingers crossed time.

We'd be wasting everyone's time, suggesting closure above 6.9p leads to 7.25p next. It's becoming pretty obvious, so if we step back and take a big picture viewpoint, we can expand this toward closure above 6.9 pointing at 7.625 as a major point of interest. If bettered, the share will find 9.125p hard to avoid.

Further down the road, we'd a Big Picture argument favouring 11p with this resulting in a curious logic where this share need only trade above 11p to suggest some proper recovery has become inevitable. But for now, the share would need slither below 5.5p (RED) to suggest recent movements have all been a dreadful mistake.

RANDOM FUTURES

17th October 2016

PLUS500 (LSE:PLUS) caught our eye recently for all the wrong reasons. The share price was moved below the uptrend since 2015 in a very obvious movement, resulting in the situation where we're forced to extrapolate downhill potentials.

Currently, the suggestion is of weakness below 620p starting a path toward 550p, a point where we'd usually hope for a bounce, especially due to the time spent messing around just above this level earlier this year. There's a fairly major problem for the longer term, should 550p make a guest appearance. It's clear the market has assigned some level of importance to this price area and it creates the potential of a glass floor forming at 550p.

This is the danger as, should the glass break, the true bottom looks like 390p.

To escape this mess, the share price needs better a visually unattainable 715p (BLUE). We suspect the company shall need issue positive news to convince the market to drive the price back upward as moves since the price was manipulated downward have failed to impart energy for any growth of substance. This is a bit of a pity as, until the share price was deliberately reversed, it had been trading in a region with a longer term potential at 1127p!

FUTURES

16th October 2016

FTSE COMING WEEK (FTSE:UKX) & AIM too. It looks like trading above just 7048 points is liable to be interesting, given it provokes an initial 7069 points but more importantly, it takes the market into a region where  we're supposed to believe 7202 points will make a viable ambition.

To be fair, there are more pointers at optimism rather than misery currently as, despite an exceedingly brief break of the BREXIT uptrend (by just four points - could be a calibration thing on our part) the market has tended play by the rules when we view what's happened from a Big Picture perspective. There's no need to dig out our 20 year master chart as it even bores us silly. Suffice to observe, the FTSE has broken the downtrend since April 2015. Critically, the market has "back-tested" the trend, one of these things chartists seem to find important. In truth, it is important as it tends suggest a heck of a lot of folk were watching the BLUE line and bet LONG once the reversal touched it.

Therefore, the underlying suggestion is of folk believing the RED uptrend since BREXIT day isn't the ruling factor but instead, the BLUE downtrend is the important thing. If this is correct, the situation now is of concern being justified should the market slither below 6911 currently (BLUE) as it can easily signal trouble ahead. Any initial break suggests coming weakness to 6888 points but the secondary, if such a point breaks, it a bit more threatening at 6781 points.

The AIM Market has exceeded our 811, then effectively stopped for some reason. It's still regarded as heading over 900 points but the current pause is a nuisance. In the event of it trading above 828 points anytime soon, it looks like once again the AIM will experience a period of growth. It closed the week at 826 points, so appears not to require much of an effort to get going again.

For any reversal to be given a "serious" status, the price would need slip below 690 points.

Random FUTURES

13th October 2016

FTSE for FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) Our midweek report proved remarkably interesting as the market indeed broke the BREXIT uptrend by 4 whole points, considered its position until the DOW opened, then bounced. But make no mistake, the BREXIT uptrend just proved it can break and anything now below 6930 is liable to provoke 6875 fairly sharply.

However, the chart for the week we've just suffered bears scrutiny as it appears the market does not want any post BREXIT calamity to strike just yet. Perhaps it's awaiting politicians to pour their petrol into the troubled fire to calm things down...

Despite the chart showing the FTSE failing to close the session - even slightly - above the immediate downtrend, we're taking some slight hope as FTSE Futures appear to have decided the downtrend doesn't exist and are pointing at Friday showing some recovery. The market closed the day at 6977 and suggests any near term growth bettering 7003 should provoke an initial 7037. If this level is bettered, we'd anticipate further movement to around 7069, effectively challenging the midweek highs.

The funny thing about 7069 is shown by PINK on the chart. For some weird reason, the market has deemed this level important on several occasions and often, when this sort of nonsense happens, a price starts to pivot until such time it achieves Higher Highs or Lower Lows to break free. Absolutely zero idea why this happens but we do suspect the tickle below the BREXIT uptrend was perhaps early warning of the market preparing to break free in the wrong direction.

RANDOM FUTURES

12th October 2016

FTSE Midweek (FTSE:UKX) & STRATEGIC MINERALS (LSE:SML) There's something a little odd going on! Okay, the market is always a little odd but the level of queer bothers us. For the last 10 sessions or so, we've needed issue up to 20 updates daily against shares but against our outlook for Thursday (tomorrow), we've just 5 shares needing analysed.

This sort of thing bugs us. If the market has stopped going up, we need look for signs it's about to go down. But before getting into the nitty gritty of freefall, the immediate situation only requires the FTSE to better 7060 to escape the current downtrend. A move such as this would reassure us, given it allows near term growth to 7090. While this is only a rise of around 0.4%, it takes the market into a position where a challenge of the prior highs can again be expected with a secondary target at 7119 points.

Now, of course, the misery report.

The BREXIT uptrend, currently at roughly 6934.502 points, represents a point we're looking for reasons capable of breaking.

Common sense, thankfully, has a reasonable suggestion of a short position being viable should the FTSE stumble below 7000 points. A calamity such as this suggests some near term reversal toward 6970 initially with secondary, if broken, at 6919 points. The secondary is a real nuisance as it would take the FTSE down 1.4% from current and slow down many of the rising potentials we're seeing against many shares. Worse, as the BREXIT uptrend would break, we'd be forced to examine the concept of 6786 issuing a gravitic attraction.

If this calamity below 7000 happens, unfortunately the tightest sane stop position is at 7060 points.

In the last few sessions, we've noted the FTSE has performed well on days STERLING has been falling apart against other currencies. This begs the question as to how valid the foregoing may be, due to STERLING now trading in a zone where we see it weakening to 1.084 against the EURO on the immediate cycle. It needs a miracle above 1.15 to escape. This creates the surprise scenario, should STERLING make another swan dive, our gloomy outlook against the FTSE is liable to be silly - on the assumption the market strengthens in response to Sterling calamity.

STRATEGIC MINERALS (LSE:SML). This share has been the subject of an email from our oldest client, dating back to 2011. It's been one of these casino shares during 2015 when he apparently picked some up. The immediate price cycle is pointing at 1.27 as a major point of interest and the recent 1.2 was perhaps sufficiently close to provoke some stutters. Certainly, aside from the salient detail the spike to 1.2 WAS NOT an opening second charade, we shall not be surprised to witness weakness to 0.80 on the immediate cycle.

However, near term anything above 1.19 should provoke an initial 1.27 but the secondary of 1.42 is quite useful as our software suggests a massive error possibility. This foolish sounding notion comes from the position of the AIM market itself as any upward movement propelled by positive news is more than likely to outperform. As a result, we are forced to mention 2.2p and 3p as (probably very distant but maybe not!) potentials.

The funny thing, when you view the chart below, neither 2.2 or 3p look stupid, especially due to the historical glass ceiling (pink) shown at 3p.

Finally, to finish with the glaringly obvious, below 0.25p justifies running shoes with any money you have left. The casino is still open! We'd be fairly confident, should this ever achieve 3p, our long suffering client will request another update as movements are liable to be spectacular.

FUTURES

11th October 2016

GOLD (COMEX:GC) appears to have its price hanging on a dodgy thread. Our Big Picture report back in August had proposed the possibility of weakness to 1248, this movement proving rather accurate. Accurate, aside from the unpleasant detail our 1248 was briefly broken during the Friday session.

This opens the trapdoor to incredible levels of doom.

The situation now is we must regard GOLD as heading to a bottom of 1163 on the current cycle. There's a chance 1218 will provoke some sort of bounce but unless some miracle can get the price above BLUE (Currently 1339), we've little choice but to view 1163 as very possible.

The chart shows something quite fascinating about the BLUE level. Obviously, it extends back to 2011 but when we view movements against GOLD this year, exquisite care has been taken to ensure the price of the stuff never exceeds this downtrend. Generally, this sort of behaviour is a "drop dead" indicator for the future than any movement above BLUE is liable to provoke a sharp initial surge upward. It will, of course, fall back thereafter and experienced traders will be waiting for the second surge as that's usually the one which sticks.

Near term, the price of the metal needs better 1260 to suggest the rate of descent is easing. A movement such as this gives a theoretical initial recovery target at 1275 with secondary 1293. Or in plain English, currently insufficient to better the ruling downtrend nor escape the potential of the metal drilling down to 1163.

FUTURES

10th October 2016

In case you missed it, our popular TW3 page is back - link here

LLOYDS BANK (LSE:LLOY) The proximity of Halloween somehow justifies a look at the Retail Banking Sector sacrificial lamb. There's something we'll point out first though and it comes from our private pre-market report generated for paying clients on 9th October. We said;

"If Lloyds Grp. experiences continued weakness below 51.8, it will invariably lead to 50.87 with secondary (if broken) at..."

What interested us was the movement to our drop target at 09:23am.  We've even shown the movement with an inset on the chart as, the share reached our target then recoiled with similar speed to a politician, when faced with a lack of expense receipt. This sort of thing, despite it briefly breaking our target, tends reinforce the fact we've been monitoring an important trend as it was clear this price level meant something important to the market.

We'll get the misery out of the way before continuing.

Anything now below 50.84 signals coming weakness toward 49.1p with secondary a hopefully bouncy bottom around 45p.

However, we're rather interested at the rebound from our given drop target and speculate that should this bank now better 53.39p, we'd anticipate fairly near term growth toward 54.4p, perhaps even 55.8p if bettered. And this is where it all gets interesting as it would imply a challenge of the immediate ruling downtrend as movement above BLUE will suggest the potential of a term for slight recovery, maybe even to 64.5p and a challenge of the bigger downtrend.

RANDOM FUTURES

9th October 2016

FTSE for the week & Ferrari (FTSE:UKX & NYSE:RACE) It starts to appear Ferrari' performance in New York's share market has absolutely no relation to race results. With Mercedes F1 team now approaching double the season points of Ferrari, the companies share price is doing something which utterly fails to reflect their weekend performance.

Our previous comments at the end of September had speculated on 52.5 and the price has achieved and bettered this expectation. As a result, the share is now regarded as trading in a zone with 60 next. The secondary calculation spits out 66 USD, representing a new all time high for the share. To cancel this ambition on the immediate movement cycle, the share price needs break RED on the chart, currently 47.5.

Common sense should anticipate some hesitation at the 60 level, given this matches the high price at launch in October 2015. A bunch of folk who've seen their money go on a Ferrari trip for the last 12 months are bound to Bail at Break Even (The BABE effect). This, from our nerd viewpoint, will prove interesting as should this price ever actually CLOSE above 57, we get to mention a longer term belief in 77.

One thing which was of considerable interest is shown at our prior target level of 52.5p. We've even circled what happened that day. The market appears to have decided it still wants the share to continue upward.

FTSE for the coming week. The immediate growth cycle on the FTSE now has an ambition of 7139 on the immediate cycle, a pretty major point of interest where we'd anticipate some turbulence. To cancel this attractive sounding prospect, the market needs flop below 6880 (RED) and therefore gives one of our most useless stop positions.

However, we're still heartened by the Big Picture which is currently highlighting 7407.5 as its own favourite long term point of interest and this means the underlying trend must still be regarded as upward. Near term, if we look for danger signals, apparently any weakness below 6999 suggests travel to a non-threatening 6968 points. This, unfortunately, is where it starts to get a bit scary due to any venture below 6968 suggesting future travel to 6880, capable of damaging the post Brexit uptrend.

The FTSE closed the week at 7045 points and movement above just 7078 should provoke an initial near term 7096 - fairly useless. The secondary is an unsurprising 7139 points and unfortunately, the US Payroll spike at 1:30pm on Friday has thrown a spanner in the works as the true target could actually be 15 points higher.

To put this in plain English, if the market now were to trade above 7154 points, from our perspective it has entered a new cycle to our ridiculous looking 7407 points.

RANDOM FUTURES

6th October 2016

FTSE for FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) & THE DOW too. the market has experienced a pretty lively week and as expected, suffered some stutters around the 7100 level. We still lack reasons for blind optimism as the UK still has not bettered its 2015 high nor closed higher than in 2015. We're not altogether worried though as, while the DOW JONES is not relevant any longer for intraday force against the FTSE, it's probably worth keeping a weather eye on the DJI if it betters 18365 anytime soon as quite strong growth toward an initial 18665 looks about right with secondary calculating at 19801. And we'd suspect even the FTSE would not be immune to the DOW entering a 1200 point growth cycle.

Despite the FTSE closing Thursday 6th at 7,000 points, after hours trading on the futures in the period since tend promote some optimism for Friday. If the FTSE (not FUTURES) manages exceed just 7028 points, it betters the downtrend since the market started its decline on Wednesday. As a result, we'd hope this will generate some movement toward an initial 7052 points with secondary, if bettered, at 7068 points.

Of course, it's US Payrolls Friday and this always tends promote a spin on things, meaning our secondary could easily be bettered in favor of 7100 points. Or even 7150 points if everything goes insane!

And that's the end of the positive spin!

If the FTSE now manages below 6996 points, weakness toward 6970 becomes possible. Secondary, if broken, is at 6890 and capable of challenging the RED Brexit uptrend in the daze ahead.

FUTURES

5th October 2016

BARCLAYS BANK (LSE:BARC) is always a worthwhile subject as our readership spikes, despite the price rarely actually doing anything interesting! However, by a stonking 0.2p, the share price did something unusual on the 5th October. We've been breathlessly waiting the share price to better 172.5p and, despite it closing at 172.45p, the share hit 172.7 during the session and sometimes these little twitches are early warning of "stuff".

The immediate situation now is of movement above 172.7 leading to a near term 179.5p, a rubbish movement and not even capable of covering the Brexit Manipulation Gap at 186.95p.  However, there are a couple of things worth taking into consideration, if 179.5p is bettered.

FIrstly, Barclays has bettered its immediate downtrend (BLUE) and, despite resting in a region with a logical bottom around 155p currently, from our perspective it has moved from "Going Down to Not Going Down".

Secondly, by 0.2p, the share price hinted of a movement from "Not Going Down" to "Maybe Going Up", if we take our calculations seriously. In an ideal world, the share price would have actually closed above 172.5p as this would inspire confidence. But the FTSE was having minor hysterics and expecting a retail bank to avoid the effects would be silly.

Third, there's the Glass Ceiling (invisible pink line) around 187p and closure above this is liable to suggest some proper upward travel of strength in Barclays future. Our secondary target above 179.5p is at 206p, capable of allowing closure above 187p and suggesting good things in the future for this share. If we use those shares which have bettered the Brexit Manipulation, this carries an implication of 228p being a distant point of interest.

Finally, what does Barclays need do to undermine this level of nerd? The price needs deposit itself below BLUE - currently 155p - to turn our projections to mush.

FUTURES

4th October 2016

FTSE updated (FTSE:UKX) When we produced our outlook for the week ahead (link here), we had not anticipated our upper target being achieved in just two days. The market certainly has produced a couple of stonking days to start October but we're a bit worried this largesse has not been spread more evenly against members of the FTSE 100. It results in the suspicion this rising cycle may not stick.

It's important to remember the High of Day did NOT better April last years 7122.74. For the 4th October, the best the FTSE managed was 7121.93. Or in plain English, it was NOT a Higher High!

If we pretend optimism, the situation now is the possibility of movement above 7122 continuing toward 7160 next with secondary 7225 points. This is possible, 'cos apparently unless the Brexit uptrend is broken, we can now mention a long term attraction from 7402 points. (hint: if achieved, go short and wait)

However, as the market both failed to better the 2015 high nor did it achieve a closing price higher than 2015, common sense suggests we should expect some stutters around the current level. But currently, the Brexit uptrend is at 6840 and we'd need see this broken before some eyebrow action is justified. This particular uptrend grows by 10 points per day, if anyone is interested.

For now, the FTSE (remember, we are talking about the market during trading hours) closed at 7074 points and the scenario near term of weakness below 7063 generating a visit to 7043 with secondary, if broken, at a visually unlikely 6965 points. But still safely above the Brexit uptrend.

One thing we don't entirely comprehend comes from the boost in the FTSE matching the misery we'd proposed for EURGBP. As GBPEUR has met our drop target, we'd hope for some sort of near term bounce and if there's a link between FTSE UP and GBPEUR DOWN, the converse should happen and some reversal is probable on the FTSE but ONLY IF GBPEUR actually bounces convincingly from our 1.136 target - ie; above 1.146

Finally, once again we received complaints for not giving our daily cartoon on a chart. It's back !

FUTURES

3rd October 2016

GBP v EURO and RBS (FX:GBPEUR & LON:RBS)  The Pound / Euro potentials were covered last week (link here) and it seems the pairing has decided to visit the dark side. For Forex daredevils following the trade, anything now below 1.1432 risks sharp reversal toward 1.136 next. The only fly in the ointment is, despite a recent downtrend suggesting any stop can be fairly tight at 1.147, Forex is rarely tidy and we suspect above 1.151 would make more sense for a STOP level. In fact, to be honest, at time of writing it's at 1.1461 and we feel it intends 1.136 anyway. And STOP can still be 1.151 or above.

And of course, below 1.135 still suggests 1.117, then parity! (We're all doomed)

RBS (LSE:RBS) continues to annoy us as the share price seems determined to hit 148p. Only if the price betters 190p will we dare believe it has escaped the current droop cycle inspired by the Brexit manipulation (circled). The reason for our irritation comes from the number of shares successfully undoing the Brexit damage with, broadly speaking, the banking sector carefully avoiding any positive movement.

The circled movement on the right of the chart was not, of course, inspired by Brexit but instead, by Deutsche Bank.

There is something quite interesting though. Since the BREXIT circle, we would have expected RBS to hit 165p but the lowest achieved has been 168p - visually close but crucially, did not break 165p and perhaps this implies hidden strength. If this is indeed the case, anything near term above 180p should challenge an initial 190p with secondary, if bettered, at 205p.

Visually, something has been going on at the 200p level since BREXIT vote and common sense alone suggests should this share better 205p, we can anticipate an upward surge attempting to cover the Brexit gap from 250p. But for now, it's probably doomed and anything below 165p will tend confirm it.

Random Futures

2nd October 2016

FTSE THIS WEEK (LSE:UKX) The FTSE keeps promising great things, yet fails to deliver and since the start of August, has essentially flatlined, albeit with a 200 point range. In the event of the market now bettering 6940, we'd expect a fairly useful movement upward. An initial 6975 looks about right but the secondary 7102 looks like it shall be hard to avoid.

Our Big Picture chart below is proving interesting. When we review what has happened in prior occasions with each lower RED uptrend, normally after an initial bounce, the market has emulated a lemming and plunged lower. The bounce at the start of 2016 has broken the mould, not only regaining the 2nd trend but currently doing its best to regain the initial trend. If it betters 6975, a new era looks viable with a continued cycle almost demanding a visit above 7100.

 If trouble is planned, the market closing below 6800 would be a bad thing. This would break the uptrend since the BREXIT vote and suggest coming weakness toward 6740 with secondary 6675 points. To be fair, even trades intraday below 6800 would be of concern.

But as the chart below tends suggest, any nonsense like this would not actually be that big a deal. We'd need see things below 6650 to suggest real trouble hiding in the wings.

Futures