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Published 01/05/17

BARCLAYS, RBS, & FTSE for the week ahead (LSE:BARC LSE:RBS FTSE:UKX) When we refer to the retail banking sector as the 'clown' sector, it's because we've grown to expect such utter nonsense as occurred on the 28th Apr with Barclays & RBS share price.  For a while, the synchronicity of RBS being UP 5.2% while BARC moved DOWN 5.2%  was funny then became the stuff of ridicule and finally irritation.

Really, how are we supposed to believe in a free & fair marketplace with this sort of "utterly random" silliness going on. The amusement generated by the amazing co-incidence of RBS & BARCLAYS mirroring each's intraday movements reminded us sharply of a UK market often appearing beyond the reaches of sanity, yet sadly complaining about the current lack of private investors compared to the 'good old days'. The chart below, giving minute by minute movements on the two shares, tells its own story THOUGH there is something important worthy of comment.

When viewing BARCLAYS price movements on the 27th (it effectively did nothing), we are reminded of the adage "If it ain't goin' up, it's goin' down". Earlier, BARC had indeed triggered the potential for upward movement, assiduously avoiding the nirvana of Higher Highs in the period thereafter. With 20:20 hindsight, we should have red flagged this, in addition to warning clients it needed better 226 to be taken seriously.

Finally, a reminder the scaling on this chart is for RBS' share price, NOT BARC's despite their "almost" similarity.

THE FTSE THIS WEEK  Up here in Argyll, the bluebells are out and the sun is (thankfully) burning the lawn and as a result, we're full of the joys of summer. Unlike the FTSE which continues to make a poor showing for any recovery.

We'd started last week pointing out the index is trading in a region where a bottom of 6750 is possible with the market now needing above 7356 to escape such grotty potentials. Even above 7285 would better the immediate downtrend, giving the beginning of hope but we'd not advise holding ones breath. About the only residual hope remaining is the market 'should' have bottomed around 7075 last week but the lowest achieved was a sniffle below 7100 points. Perhaps this implies some hidden strength in the marketplace.

We'll pretend optimism and suggest anything now above 7285 should provoke an initial 7320 points - still leaving the market in dangerous territory. But if 7320 is now bettered, then growth toward 7410 and safety becomes possible. If triggered, the tightest stop comes in at 7257 points but in an election week, there are almost certain to be wide swings.

Alternately, now below 7155 points at 7094 initially with secondary, if broken, at 7035 points. But it must be remembered, in the even of the index moving below 7094, it is firmly in the grasp of 6750 in the future.

Finally, with local elections this coming Thursday, will political opponents be greeting each other with the endearment, "May the 4th be with you!" And why is that cliche not polluting some newspaper headline?

FUTURES

Published 27/04/17

FTSE FOR FRIDAY & THE SPECTACULAR AIM (FTSE:UKX & FTSE:AXX) The UK market has behaved with a surprising degree of sanity in the last couple of days with the immediate situation giving a reasonable clue for what's coming next. On the other hand, the chart below on the AIM market shows it performing like a well trained politician.

To explain - if such is necessary - the AIM seems to be ignoring everything going on around while it displays blind adherence which favours 1001 as the immediate target. Or in plain English, we remain expectant of some AIM members continuing to recover nicely despite a backdrop of political X-Factor competitions. The AXX needs below 926 to ruin the current pace of ascent but there's a near term excuse for a pause in this immediate rising cycle.

Back in 2011 during the faux recovery from 2009, this index topped out at 970 and the market is approaching this level. We'd bet we're not the only folk seeing this, suspecting a bit of a stutter anytime now. However, there is a strong underlying influence pointing at 1001 regardless and better still, with CLOSURE above 970 we're looking for a secondary 1139 points. Fingers crossed time - as usual.

FTSE near term has, as we said, been behaving with some sanity and the immediate situation suggests weakness below 7221 points will lead to 7175 points. If any drop intends a stutter, expect a fake rebound around 7205 points. If triggered, the index would need better 7255 points to escape the immediate downtrend, giving a fairly decent risk / reward scenario. We'd prefer avoid drawing a downtrend line and just assuming the stop would need be 7243 points.

When we review what's been happening in the last week, it appears the UK index needs better 7293 points to slow the pace of descent and exhibit a spectacular leap to 7303 points. To be fair, if the market even manages above 7260, it betters the artificial ceiling imposed on the 28th and given it had NOT broken below 7221 points, there's a fairly good chance it shall recover - at least to the months downtrend around 7293 points.

Finally, while we mentioned an argument favouring 7303 points, in the event the UK actually betters this level, it achieves a Higher High for the week and allows a further 45 points of growth.

FUTURES - FREE FIRST MOVEMENT FRIDAY !

Published 26/04/17

A FTSE sermon & San Leon (LSE:SLE & FTSE:UKX)  Our brief FTSE lesson is basic as we like to present illustrations of trend behaviour. So if you're looking for a near term tip on the index, this isn't the place to find it today. But if you're looking for a pretty certain sense of direction, read on.

Regular readers will be bored silly of our constant confusion as to whether to take the Post-Brexit market manipulation trend seriously or the visually more honest series of movements which bookended the Brexit Day stitch up. Thankfully, it finally appears the market is behaving with a degree of integrity; the inset on the chart revealing something quite fascinating from our perspective as it now appears Brexit Day is being ignored.

At times, what's important - often really important - is a price' behaviour when it approaches a trend line.

In the case of the FTSE, when we map RED we see - despite the recent big drop thanks to Mrs May not wanting her majority removed by (a not very publicised) police action on electoral fraud - the market has actually NOT regained the trend despite a fairly admirable bounce.

Instead, it is flirting with the idea but we really need see the FTSE trade above 7347 - currently - before we can be assured some miracle recovery is almost certain. Unless the index regains this trend, it's now languishing in territory where an initial bounce point of 7040 makes sense, maybe even 6750 if a politician says/does something silly. (With both Local & National elections looming, this is - of course - highly unlikely... )

SAN LEON (LSE:SLE) has been enjoying a fairly reasonable bounce recently, one which has ALMOST removed it from a logic which is pointing at 32.75p being anointed with trampoline juice. To completely escape this grotty drop potential, the share price need only better BLUE (56p currently).

Last year, we'd given a half hearted projection when the share price commenced trading and aside from the drop to 39p, the share has failed make any other meaningful triggers.

Near term, trades above 50p should prove capable of 52.75, a pretty useless ambition but should 52.75 be bettered, we shall take the attitude of "bottom is in" and hope to see continued oomph toward 56p and a bonk against the BLUE downtrend. There's something quite surprising should this share actually manage to CLOSE above BLUE as we're able to calculate future growth to an initial 70p as a potential stutter level. Secondary, if such is bettered, comes into play at 87p but we'd suspect a positive news flow will be required.

Finally, any break of RED at 43p currently and our 32.75 becomes the most probable bottom. As the chart shows, there's certainly reason for hope currently.

FUTURES

Published 25/04/17

Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE:RBS) Completing our monthly look at the circus FTSE sector is RBS, the bank that likes to say "Gotcha, Sucker". Except on this occasion, it appears possible a different utterance is about to escape its vile portals.

Similar to Barclays, RBS had an immediate downtrend to better and it WAS at roughly 248.672p yesterday. By closing the session on the 25th April at 253.4p, the share price is now poised to move faster than a clipped toenail in an immaculate bedroom, heading towards your partners make up table...

In theory, moves now above just 257p should generate 271p next but frankly, we're too old and jaded to evince enthusiasm over such. The really big deal looks like closure above 260p, the share certainly looking capable of producing such a miracle anytime soon.

If you look at the chart below, this 260p thing isn't rocket science, just common sense. We've mentioned the glass ceiling (a flat trend really) at 260p repeatedly, announcing the notion that closure above this level should prove critical.

THE SHARE APPEARS POISED TO DO SO.

To be clear, closure now above 260p moves this into a region where growth to 271 makes sense from a near term perspective but realistically we'd expect 321p to make a guest appearance. Then the future starts to become interesting as this brings the price into Big Picture realms as closure above the dashed blue line ( 310.376 at time of writing ) makes continued growth to 354p quite practical. At such a level, we will need brew a fresh cup of tea to examine the leaves closely, due to us being teased by a theoretical 572p.

Finally, to give the share the curse of the final paragraph, if it drops below RED (currently 208p) it's stuffed and probably heading to 96p as a bounce point.

 FUTURES

Published 24/04/17

BARCLAYS BANK (LSE:BARC) Barclays has an immediate magic number at 219.718 currently, the share needing to close above this point to convince us some real movement is perhaps around the corner. It's not a great secret understanding where this number appears - the BLUE immediate downtrend on the chart gives a decent clue.

It's absolutely critical the share price find an excuse to actually CLOSE above BLUE sometime soon as other wise, the share remains trading in a region where weakness to 193p, maybe even 182p is possible. We're inclined to take some hope from recent movements as we'd expected weakness below 220p to promote drops in 20p increments. This appears to be slightly wrong with reversals opting to bounce at the 205p level. Perhaps it's a sign of hidden strength in this bank?

Should this be the case, the immediate situation suggests trades above 220.2p will encourage near term growth toward 227p with secondary of 243p if such an ambition is bettered.  The secondary is quite a big deal, enabling us to suggest it can be ignored as this will transport the share price into Big Picture territory where 254p will make rather more sense as a stutter point in any rising cycle.

As always, there's a fly in the ointment and amazingly, it's at the 243p level anytime now and shown to coincide with the Dashed Light Blue downtrend since 2015. Our inclination is to suspect the market will opt to 'gap' the price over such a hurdle, something which is proving increasingly common as the UK marketplace attempts to bypass lack of trading pressure and instead, push a price into the action area.

In the case of Barclays, this will imply we should mention a point beyond 254p at a presumably distant 322p!

FUTURES

Published 23/04/17

FTSE for the week (FTSE:UKX)  Even by our usual standards of gullibility, it'll probably be silly to anticipate the market to make much sense in the next few months. A combination of National Elections, Local Elections, French Elections, and Britains Got Talent will doubtless foul things up.

However, with wide parameters, we still hope to get things right. This approach was valuable last week (link here) when we speculated exclusively for Interactive Investor (for the week ahead to be honest) of weakness below 7298 bringing 7115 points. Thanks to the UK PM, it happened the next day. Unfortunately, not every day spawns a 183 drop from trigger but it's worthwhile giving bigger picture viewpoint just in case someone else does something daft.

Oddly, despite Mrs Mays somewhat hysterical nod to democracy, the FTSE still isn't entirely stuffed but should it discover a reason to trade below 7037 points, we're looking at initial reversal toward 6920 points, maybe even 6750 if the initial level breaks. While this may seem stupid, given the markets recent flirtation above 7400 points, a scenario such as this comes close to being a "print this and pin it on the wall" statement.

Visually, the prospect of 6750 isn't entirely insane, given it matches a bunch of lows during 2016. Perhaps there's a glass floor in the waiting at such a point as movement below 6750 promises to be really very grotty. For light relief, we've drawn a line around the 6300 level!

However - this is important - the market still has not committed to Lemming territory with the result not much is needed to provoke optimism. The FTSE close the week at 7122 and 'only' needs better 7190 to escape the immediate downtrend which is making the foregoing possible (not yet probable). A miracle above 7190 looks capable of promoting an initial useless 7209 points. The secondary target, if such is bettered, calculates at 7280 and capable of bettering the light blue downtrend. This would effectively scupper all the drop potentials given early and catipult the index into a region where growth to 7430 is again believable.

Fingers crossed time, unfortunately.

FUTURES

Published 20/04/17

FTSE for FRIDAY & FRANCE (CAC40) It seems a few folk harbor a suspicion the French index will "Do A FTSE" if the electorate are sufficiently stupid to elect a candidate of whom the media do not approve. Will we be, once again, facing a "petulant child" barrage of headlines once France declares?

To make some sense of the future potentials, there's quite a few major differences between the CAC40 and the DOW / FTSE. Most critical from our perspective is that France has failed to better its 'pre-2009-crash high' and remains in recovery mode rather than a growth mode. Both the DOW & FTSE had bettered their prior highs pre-Brexit & pre-Trump which resulted in the situation of volatility promoting upward oomph.

France, alas, does not currently enjoy such a luxury so caution advised unless fairly strict criteria met. We shall take the attitude "if it were a share, what next" against the index as generally this proves safe if attempting to mark the transit from 'les miserables' to 'just miserable'. As a result of this stance, it appears FRANCE needs better 5143 to suggest any downward spike due to  the election result was indeed an over-reaction. Such a movement will suggest coming growth toward 5807 initially, maybe even 6073 as this represents a similar ambition to our phantom FTSE 7520 the market keeps avoiding. If triggered and the markets follow the FTSE & DOW example, stop can be set at sod all but we'd prefer seeing it around 5056 to pretend sanity.

Of course, there are some (often broke) adrenalin junkies who try and pick 'bottom' when negative news erupts like a teenagers pimple.

In the case of the CAC, below 5020 would now bother us as it permits 4845 with secondary 4548 points. Should the market chose to open just above either of these points in the case of 'the wrong' candidate being selected, opening a long position with a stop just below the target level might make some sense.

FTSE for FRIDAY Aside from the market moving to our bottom target with exquisite precision, this week has been pretty boring and we're genuinely not sold on any possible direction currently. The immediate scenario is of movement above 7134 promoting some growth to 7156 points. Our secondary, should such an ambition be exceeded, is at 7188 points. If triggered, stop level is around 7096 points which gives a fair risk / reward balance.

What happens should 7096 break?

We'd tend expect weakness to an initial 7065 points with secondary, if broken, at a rather nasty 6935 points. Of course, whether the secondary could be expected on the same day will be best judged by whatever news is polluting the airwaves.

FUTURES

Published 19/04/17

LLOYDS GROUP (LSE:LLOY) Self abuse takes many forms. It can be body piercings, tattoos, or perhaps the worst of all, trying to deal with a UK retail bank. In other words, it's that time of the month where we update our Lloyds Bank outlook. Why can't everything be like our YouGov report which moved to target the next day?

We've been waxing miserably about Lloyds and the potential of 57 making a guest appearance. As is normal, we'd given a caveat and it was at 64p. On the 19th, the share actually managed to better 64p for an hour or so, calling our entire drop logic into question. It creates a confusing picture, where the share price now needs weaken below 63.12p to suggest traffic in the direction of 62.45p. In itself, this isn't particularly alarming and tends hint at the price being "parked" for a while rather than threatening to break the immediate uptrend (currently 58.5p in RED)

However, if we take optimism from the share price managing above 64p, the immediate situation signals anything above 64.42 heading to an initial 65.25p. If triggered, it would need below 63.5p to cancel, so there's your stop loss position. Unfortunately, to indicate good times ahead, the share really needs better BLUE on the chart, currently at 68.84p to justify investing in fizzy water as this apparently should allow movement to recommence to 75p, maybe even 86p if the market is having a laugh.

For now, until the next election or Brexit or hell freezing over, it appears Lloyds is probably trapped between RED and BLUE.

FUTURES

Published 18/04/17

FTSE (again) & YouGov (LSE:YOU) Starting the week with a grump about our marketing abilities was to produce a comprehensive example of why we despise politicians and also, a pretty good example of our work. We'd spent time calculating potentials for a WEEK and Mrs May ensured the market did everything in a few hours. Did she open a short on her Interactive Investor platform before stumbling outside No 10 with Trumps hair? (joke)

Shown above, we tweeted a screen shot of Monday evenings work - does this count as "shouting from rooftops?"  link here

Anyway, thanks to our illustrious leader, we need revisit the market as it appears everything has been trashed. Aside, that is, from the salient detail that while FTSE FUTURES reached 7116 points, the FTSE itself 'only' slithered down to 7147 points. The situation now appears to be weakness below 7147 being capable of generating 7109 points and hopefully a bounce. In fact, it almost must bounce as below 7109 hints strongly at a future 6937.

The annoying thing is the Big Picture uptrend since early 2016. It appears the market now needs below 6500 to justify extreme underwear concerns, so there's one heck of a lot of spare bandwidth. To be blunt, should the market actually now CLOSE below 7109, it's going to be hard to avoid a donk against the long term uptrend.

Of course, this might all be a bad dream as the prior Brexit uptrend had proven resilient (until Mrs May discovered either her vocal chords and perhaps decent short potentials!) Unfortunately, the market now needs better 7285 to regain the prior trend, perhaps possible if No 10 issues notification of an early April Fool prank... A miracle such as this allows recovery to 7370 in a blink according to our software. Early warning of a coming miracle will hopefully be the FTSE trading above 7219 in the coming week.

YOUGOV (LSE:YOU)  Given the news on the 18th, it appears probable YouGov will once again be able to 'rake it in' during the months ahead. We last viewed this in June 2016 (link here) and it indeed reached our 233p, exceeding this quite comfortably once the obligatory stutter period completed.

The situation now is of movement above 274 almost promising 284p next as a near term prospect with secondary 321 and probably some stutters. Longer term, closure above 321p allows us to mention 381p. To even slow down the current pace of ascent, the share price needs vote itself below 214p

FUTURES

Published 17/04/17

FTSE FOR THE WEEK (FTSE:UKX)   Marketing is, perhaps, not a strong point for Trends & Targets. We're rubbish at blowing our own trumpet. Just last week, someone apparently commented that "if they were any good they'd shout it from the rooftops". Were we to point out it took Sirius just two days to reach our 26p target (link here) - heck, it gets boring.

As for the FTSE, we've been wavering about which uptrend is actually correct. Our inclination had been to ridicule any trend starting from the post-Brexit-vote manipulated drop and it increasingly appears the market agrees with us. There can be little doubt the RED uptrend on the chart is important and it results in the situation where the market now needs trade below roughly 7298.556 points currently to remove itself from a trend which promises 7520 on the immediate cycle.

The FTSE closes pre-Easter at 7327 and so, theoretically, we're presenting a stonker of a long position with a super tight stop!

Lurking in the ointment is a fly. While the FTSE chart does indeed offer a useful position, when we review FTSE futures quite a different number appears due to FTSE Futures currently demanding the market roll below 7240 before we eradicate 7520 as a realistic ambition.

This week, should the market stumble above 7410, it certainly appears growth to 7463 makes sense with secondary 7520 remaining realistic.

On the flip-side, below 7298 would bother us as it suggests 7266 initially with secondary, if broken, at a pretty shocking 7115 points.

FUTURES

Published 12/04/17

A FREE FERRARI & HAYS (NYSE:RACE & LSE:HAS) There's sometimes a strange phenomena with the markets, one we always hesitate to comment on as it's perhaps a bit stupid. But when we allocate shares for manual analysis once the markets End of Day data is imported, recently the bulk of the action takes place in the "A to M" part of the alphabet rather than the back "N-Z" half. The inevitable conclusion, if you're day trading, things tend happen faster at the start of the alphabet.

Told you it was silly. But last week, we witnessed a 67% bias favouring A to M whereas this week it has been fairly equal - so far. Of course, it's perhaps just a reflection on people reading just so far down a column and getting bored rather than a great conspiracy involving a lazy stock market. But for quick in-out trades, perhaps this is something worthy of consideration.

To save readers from mental gymnastics, HAYS PLC falls into the early part of the alphabet. And better still, it appears to be showing some fairly decent prospects given recent share price movements. The immediate prospect suggests growth above 170p will attain 183.5p next. Achieving such a point is liable to be a big deal, longer term, as it moves the company into "Higher High" territory with a secondary expectation at 214p. Or maybe even 309p if the company start delivering positive news though, it must be admitted we're using data from 2002 to give this number and thus, goodness knows what the timeframe would be.

Despoiling this fountain of optimism (we think 183.5p is attainable fairly soon) the share price requires drip below 154p to escape the immediate growth cycle, a movement like this suggesting weakness coming toward 142 initially with secondary, if broken, at 124p. The odd thing is, all this would show is a slowdown in its prospects and NOT cancellation as the price needs break 95p to totally foul its future.

And of course, there's another aspect and it's BLUE on the chart. This downtrend - which the price seems to respect - dates back to 15 years and surely is important!

FERRARI Last time we looked (link here), we'd mentioned 75 as a viable upper target and the share price appears to have achieved this with a recent high of 74.99. Critically though, it did not manage to either better nor close above 75 and as a result, we're now looking for drop targets as visually we'd expect another attempt at the 75 level.

Before digging into the pits, Ferrari does have a final target should 75 be bettered. It's at 79.32 or so. If the market intends the share price to go higher, they'll need start gapping it up at the open anytime now. For those tempted to a long position in this scenario, the stop can / should be fairly tight as it's a bit of a punt.

However, a short position looks more viable as below 71.3 points at 69.75 next, maybe even 67.75 if the market is having an off day. Stop is at 73.3 at its tightest.

Realistically, Ferrari now needs break RED - 54 currently - before we'd suspect a real breakdown is happening.

FUTURES

Published 11/04/17

UNITED AIRLINES (aka United Continental Holdgs) NYSE:UAL & SIRIUS (LSE:SXX)  A few folk have asked what the future holds for United Airlines as it's being regarded as a potential short opportunity. Firstly, it needs better 72p to cancel the arguments, so there's your stop loss level. But for now, below 68.36 points at 67 next with secondary 64p. Or maybe even 59p if the company boss keeps issuing press releases!

SIRIUS MINS is rather more interesting...

SIRIUS MINERALS (LSE:SXX) was last covered by us last month (link here) and the share price has finally clawed its way above the ruling downtrend, giving hope for the future. We've a basket of optimism available for its future as the price has finally achieved - and beaten - our initial targets of 21.25 & 22.75p. The situation now suggests movement above 23.75 should continue to an initial tame looking 26p with secondary, if bettered, at 31p.

This is where things get a bit vague and while we're aware certain brokerages are giving daft upper targets, we'd be inclined to demand SIRIUS close above 31p before taking the next bit seriously. In fact, we suspect a combination of positive news with positive market conditions will be needed to make any of this come to fruition.

The situation now is of CLOSURE (important word) above 31p landing the share in a region where we can mention 47p in the future, perhaps even 64p. The amazing thing is, we run out of numbers beyond 64p unless the market commences a campaign of "gapping" (aka manipulating) the share price upward at the open once our benchmark 31p ambition is bettered.

Of some interest - those who read our report on 88E on the 10th April will "get" this - is the circled area on the chart where the share was allowed to drift below the long term uptrend for a while. Once the price again regained the RED trend, it started to move properly, this being a phenomena we've often noticed. We'd now be inclined to panic should any reason be found to drop the price below RED again - currently at 18p.

If an attempt is made to slow the pace of ascent, the share now needs break the Dashing Red line - currently 21p

FUTURES

Published 10/04/17

88 ENERGY (LSE:88e) The key number for this mob today is 2.969p (BLUE) and the highest the share achieved was 2.95p. However, the share price does appear on the brink of some positive action and we'd rather strongly suspect any trades now above BLUE will head to 3.45p or so, if our super trend tool isn't lying.

As can be guessed, we don't actually spend the day drawing lines on charts, 'simply' using software to extrapolate trend levels and compare these levels with the current price. For shares where we've not bothered import all historical data, we created a silly little piece of software where by entering either high prices - or low prices - it calculates where the UP or DOWN trend is at the current point in time. Anyone who wants to download the program can get it from our website but be warned, it's ONLY for machines running Windows and what's more, we're not offering support. It was written for in-house use as it makes a handy reference aid when writing articles.

To return to 88E, it's certainly on the edge of some positive movement as above 3p should prove capable of generating 3.45 next with secondary, if bettered, at an interesting 3.85p.

The reason we're fairly interested in the 3.85p thing is it gives the share a chance to actually close above above the bonk against the downtrend in August last year, an event which allows us to speculate on a longer term 5.5p.

But for now, it's stuffed!

Or perhaps not. There's something else puzzling us and it's the break below RED during March, an event (circled) which has now been corrected. Generally when this sort of nonsense happens with the share miraculously recovering above RED - as happened at the start of April - we take it as a sign the drop was fake and tend anticipate some strength ahead. Of course, this is the UK stock market and it has a sense of humour but we'd need see the price below 2.3p before thinking we'd been conned (again... there are no fixed rules! )

FUTURES

Published 09/04/17

FTSE FOR THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX)  Recently we've been appalled at the number of shares basically treading water (the banks, anyone?) and a glance at the FTSE reveals a pretty similar story. The FTSE has been a 200 point thick flat line for 5 weeks BUT, similar to the retail banks and many other shares, should be going up.

This sort of nonsense is always a concern due to gravity. If things don't go up, they often go down - with the fault directly at the door of Isaac Newton, the bloke who invented gravity. Many things would be a lot easier, if not for the pull earthward...

When we look at the immediate downtrend on the FTSE, it appears 7350 is pretty important and movement above should bring growth toward 7445 points - rather painfully and precisely challenging the highs of March. But the hiatus since the start of March has brought something new to the table as while we'd been banging on about 7520 as a Big Picture ambition, the stock market is now liable to ignore our advice and power upward to a gravity defying 8022 points. To delay the potential (substantially) on the immediate movement cycle, the market needs now trade below 7250 points. And to utterly foul the potential, it needs below 6290 points - the dashed middle RED line on the chart.

One funny feature about the market is the BLUE line - a flat trend or glass ceiling depending on which bit of gibberish you prefer. When we decided Flat Trends were important last year, this ridiculous line at the 7100 level now advises we must see the market above 7920 before now getting excited about the future as we're showing some distant targets which, frankly, are hard to accept.

To return to the dangers of Isaac Newtons invention, what happens if the FTSE now manages below 7250 points? 7040

Initially weakness to 7190 but the secondary at 7040 looks horribly real. And worse, capable of bringing the FTSE below BLUE and into the realms of real danger, allowing us to mention 6750 in passing.

For now, it feels like the markets are poised for a politician to do something really stupid. And in the absence of real stupidity, things are basically marching on the spot.

FUTURES

Published 06/04/17

Griffin Mining, Unilever, & FTSE for FRIDAY Sometimes it's fascinating revisiting old predictions and with Griffin we've got a cracker. (link here) It was nearly two years ago when we covered Griffin and price behaviour since highlights the need for patience, along with something surprising about trends.

Firstly, the 55p level was a really big deal for us and somehow, despite our projection being from 2015, the price indeed experienced a severe stutter once this calculated level was reached. In fact, this impediment lasted for 4 months - rather a long time by any standards. The situation now is quite interesting but to cut to the chase, closure above 63p is required to point at near term growth to 70p but perhaps more usefully, the secondary at 86p will prove difficult to avoid in the longer term.

And that's the end of the good news.

On 6th April, the share price was moved to 64.5p at the open with movements as the day progressed almost seeming to punish the share for its temerity. Near term, we shall not be surprised to see any weakness below 57p head to 51.5p and hopefully a bounce. The implication should 51p break will be of an attempt toward 38p, perhaps challenging the immediate RED uptrend.

For now, we're fairly impressed with ourselves - as well as this lots price movements - and feel, in the absence of grotty news, the price should achieve 86p in the future. As always, we still lack the ability to travel in time but suspect the 70p level will provoke similar behaviour to that displayed by 55p and probably sooner rather than later, assuming weakness toward the 51p level provides a recoil.

UNILEVER (LSE:ULVR)  Something interesting is brewing here and movement in the near term above 3993 should provide an initial useless 4067p. Secondary calculates at a less certain 4440p as we'd prefer seeing the share price close above 4070 to make this real.

FTSE for FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX)  This week has been a bit grotty and as the 7th is the US Payrolls Day - increasingly less of an influence on the FTSE - it must be remembered whatever figures are announced will be real rather than optimistic estimates. As a result, any market movements are liable to prove pretty solid rather that just three minute flash in the pan.

Thursday provided quite a confusing session and we're still not comfortable we know what happened. As the index opened below 7286, we'd expected it to weaken toward 7230 and a bounce. However, the harsh reality was the market only dribbled half way down, bouncing from 7258 and as a result (failure at a half way mark is supposed to indicate strength) we're supposed to anticipate an UP day on the FTSE for Friday. Our inclination is not to take this too seriously unless the FTSE starts trading above 7327 as movement to an initial 7350 becomes possible. Secondary, if bettered, calculates at 7372 points.

However, since the start of March there's been something going on at 7250 with no less than 4 bonks against the glass floor. It results in the situation where weakness now below 7250 is liable to provoke sharp downward travel toward 7080 points - hopefully not in a single session!

FUTURES

Published 05/04/17

TESLA (NASDAQ:TSLA) & THE DOW JONES (DOWi:DJI) Our last update on TESLA (link here) was accompanied by something on Forex which, with hindsight, came into the class of "we know what we meant to say" rather than actually saying it! Sometimes a picture or chart does not tell the whole story... About the only thing making sense was our last sentence. The GBPEUR relationship still does not want to better 1.20

The DOW JONES has suffered some stonking growth and is probably deserving a big picture update 'lest we continue to assume it shall just grow and grow like a politicians nose. Our Big Picture number remains at 22013, this being the point the market cannot apparently exceed without some volatility. We suspect we're already witnessing this volatility occur as some recent reversals managed to exceed near term logic. And of course, the high of March at 21170 - while visually close to our 22000 Big Pic ambition - appears to be sufficient to provoke the feared market volatility.

The index closed the session on the 5th at 20648 points and now, we'd advocate caution should it trade below 20575 points as this risks travel in the direction of 20400 initially with secondary, if broken, at 20,000 points. If triggered, stop is stupidly wide at 20850 but realistically we'd suspect 20755 will be "good enough". Still wide obviously but as we're talking about a potential 575 fail, it's worth it. But only if one believes the situation exists for the DOW to weaken.

The funny thing about the market isn't shown on the chart. The DOW needs weaken below 16800 to scrub the chances of 22000 making an appearance!

TESLA - We're revisiting this not because it achieved our 250 target (link here) but simply 'cos the cartoon below about self driving cars reminded the share was due an update! According to reports, this company is now valued higher than Ford with the chart tending agree with the story.

The situation near term appears to be movement above 305 pointing at 321 next with secondary, if bettered, at 340. Allegedly, the highest this share can achieve on the current movement cycle is at 390. The share price needs weaken below a visually unlikely 184 to spoil the party.

FUTURES

Published 04/04/17

FLYBE (LSE:FLYB) We last looked at this last October - link here - and speculated a bottom of 30p which, if broken, allowed a hard landing at 16p or so. Thankfully, the 30p runway presence proved devastatingly accurate and the price has glided upward since.

Of course, in a historical context, this should read "glided with lead wings" as the share bounced to just above 50p and has been taxiing around uselessly since. Currently, the situation near term is it needs better 46 to once again signal strength to an initial 50p but the secondary at 63 makes quite a lot of sense.

One feature of trend lines is shown on the chart - the dashed blue one and the solid blue one. Both squiggles date back to 2011 and while the original trend was 'proven' with repeated bonks against the line, the current incarceration with just a single touch make seem a bit silly but we're inclined to take this sort of thing seriously. The issue is, trends change and while the prior dashed trend proved quite intransigent for 6 years, the current iteration make not and it results in a situation where CLOSURE ABOVE this solid BLUE trend line is liable to provide some sharp upward entertainment.

For this reason, we've pencilled something in the 70's as it could move pretty sharply in the face of positive news.

For now though, it's in a danger zone where movement now below 36 is liable to provide 30p again with secondary 16.5p.

FUTURES

Published 03/04/17

BMR GROUP (LSE:BMR)  This recently blotted its copybook but strangely, we're not yet ringing alarm bells. But we are perhaps justified in wringing our hands together in frustration as the share price has been crashed, once again, through its historical glass ceiling. Or perhaps, its flat trend line in pink but "glass ceiling" sounds more techie.

The issue arose following the 10:1 shuffle with BMR's share price as immediately afterward a glass ceiling at the 7.15p level appeared. The first time the price broke above this level in October last year, it was permitted a few days in the sun before being trashed for a while. The second time it bettered this level in February this year, it experienced nearly two months in the glow of misplaced optimism before the price was manipulated once again below 7p. Presumably the company managed extract some bad news to spoil the immediate potentials.

On the basis the 3rd time will be the charm, if BMR somehow manages close above 7p we'll be fairly comfortable it intends some proper movement as an initial 10.25 makes a lot of sense with secondary, if bettered, at a longer term 12.25p and the need to re-calculate its potentials as things start to get a bit silly in the growth potential stakes.

For now, we're basing our optimism on the RED uptrend line on the chart below.

The share price completed March with a plunge below RED, perhaps early warning this trend could be broken. But importantly, the downward spike happened right at the open courtesy of a manipulation gap and price down spike. We like down spikes at the open as they "generally but never always" presage some coming upward travel. When they are prefaced with a gap, the subliminal message is a bit Theresa May - "Now is NOT THE TIME..." (Prior article at this link)

As the closing price inset highlights, it appears the market was keen not to allow BMR to actually close below the uptrend as this would take it into the region of 4.35 initially with secondary a very probable bounce point at 3.85p. But hope can be taken as it seems we're not the only folk with a RED crayon.

FUTURES

Published 02/04/17

FTSE FOR THE WEEK (FTSE:UKX) On Friday, we coughed politely and mentioned 8022 points had crept into our calculations. Given the perilous state of world peace with a pending war against Spain, we're mildly curious if the market stumbles below 7294 to cancel this amazing perspective!

Interestingly, below 7294 takes the FTSE into a zone where reversal toward 7185 becomes possible with secondary 7083 points. But in this instance, we're not entirely confident with these drop potentials, the reason coming from the post-Brexit vote manipulation. Visually, the forced spike downward following the vote created a fake drop, one which we've never been entirely comfortable with as movements since the vote tended behave in accordance with the dashed RED line rather than the obvious fat RED line. This results in the situation where the FTSE actually needs break 7220 currently to utterly trash the 8022 calculation.

The flip side of the coin is the FTSE now need only better 7375 points to suggest coming oomph toward 7447 initially with secondary, if bettered, at 7490. Or perhaps even 7620 if everything goes nuts with the thrill of a coming war.

Finally, we referred to the 1st of April as "April Politicians Day" rather than the traditional "April Fools Day". The prize, obviously, must go to Lord Howard and his backing singers in the media...

FUTURES

Prior Months:

March 2017 Aberdeen Ass Laura Ashley ARGOS A G BARR French Connection BHP AFC Aberdeen Asset Jubilee LLOYDS RBS BARC Debenhams GreatPortland Just Eat Sirius

February 2017 Ferrari Sound Proton Power SIRIUS_SXX Esure A)O World CARD Factory Gulf Keystone BMR RENTokill BARCLAYS LLOYDS RBS

January 2017 SIRIUS Ferrari Next Premier Vet GBPEUR LLOYDS SKY Capita FastJet Talk Talk British Telecom SKY Barclays RBS

December16 DOW JONES AO WORLD Ebay SIRIUS BMR Sirius Ferrari Next GBPEUR LLOYDS DIAGEO

November16 Includes FlyBe FastJet Johnston Press SKY Ferrari Rockhopper Lloyds Barclays RBS Sirius BMR Vodafone AMUR Minerals Chesnara Provexis

October16 Includes FTSE GBPEUR RBS Barclays The Dow Jones Ferrari Lloyds GOLD Strategic Minerals BMR PLUS500 DOW AGAIN Gulf Keystone Hurricane Countrywide Vodafone Zoldav

Sept16: Includes Range Resources Highland Natural Resources Cloudtag Tern Kodal UK Oil & Gas Gulf Keystone Hurricane Sirius Barclays San Leon Solo Chariot Sepura 88 Energy Gulf Keystone BMR Forbidden Tech HNR Sound Deutsche Bank Ferrari Twitter

August16 - includes Firstgroup Cobham Drax Edinburgh JimmyChoo Barclays Lloyds WilliamHill OilSector ProtonPower RBS DirectLine BMR JustEat BancaMonteDeiPaschidiSiena SiriusMinerals DixonsCarphone FERRARI Google SanLeon  WMIH  GulfKeystone