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Published 15/03/17

BHP BILLITON (LSE:BHP) Surely many folk read this share' name and immediately long for South Africa and decent Biltong. Which, despite that countries mining history, is daft as they're a bunch of Ausies. And their share price seems to be digging a hole for itself.

The chart below is pretty self explanatory,

There has been an uptrend since June 2016 and the share price has just been manipulated below it. As the inset highlights, it appears the market is not planning any recovery anytime soon as the price exhibits behaviour redolent of a bunch of folk erroneously thinking "this is cheap" in the face of a pretty obvious market movement. [tip: unless there's a miracle, if a price is manipulated below a trend, it generally gives a cast iron guarantee the share faces a bit of a stuffing. The market has enacted the first step of a cunning plan!]

Unless BHP somehow manages to actually close a session above RED, we rather strongly suspect the immediate price cycle faces some travel to around 1150p before any bounce of substance can be hoped. Our secondary layer of misery, should the price close a session below 1149p, is at 815p, a point at which it almost "must" bounce.

What we find utterly horrific about this scenario comes from the detail we just suggested the price once again faces a visit to the area reminiscent not only of 2015 but worse, 2009 when everything went to hell in a handbasket. About the only saving grace for BHP is the dashing RED line along the bottom of the screen, the uptrend since 1998 and currently at 600p.

So, what does this major miner need do to get out of this mess?

Where should we look for early signs of hidden strength and vegemite?

Given the share is currently trading around 1290, it actually does not need achieve much to give an early signal of an Easter miracle. In the event of it somehow starting to trade above 1315p we'll be forced to raise an eyebrow as this gives the first potential bottom may actually be "in" and further growth toward 1362p can be hoped for. This would again return the share price above RED, cover the recent manipulation gap, and imply the drop out of the trend was fake, one of these features of the marketplace designed to fuel the blood-pressure industry.

Better still, once above 1362 we'd be forced to mention 1487p and the chance of the price actually bettering the ruling downtrend. In this instance, we need brew a fresh tin of tea and look at the leaves.

If we'd to guess, it's not going to happen. A solid movement such as this below an uptrend tends only to have one consequence. Guess they're not called diggers for nothing!

FUTURES

Published 14/03/17

THE FRENCH CONNECTION (LSE:FCCN)  When the markets are a bit flat, we welcome emails regarding shares in the news though, following Laura Ashley, were surprised at a further clothing company appearing in our mailbox. French Connection is a bit surprising as, in theory, the share price is sitting with a bottom potential at 3p.

However (engage: teacher mode) movements this year have been a bit interesting. To be honest, drawing lines on charts can frequently be a waste of time but when we scrawl a BLUE line since the highs of 2004 to current, something interesting is going on.

The spike on February 1st 2017 was fairly significant. As the inset shows, it propelled the share price above the downtrend since 2004 with a pretty flamboyant 25% day. Better still, in the period since the share price has illustrated rather careful consideration against this 13 year old downtrend and this often hints the market has other ideas for the price future. Unfortunately, the level of control exhibited tends suggest this intends head to a bottom and hopefully a bounce at 30p on the immediate price cycle.

About the only argument legislating against this drop will be moves above 38p triggering growth toward 42p initially with secondary an important 49.5p and a bonk against the downtrend since 2011. Only with closure above this trend can we date mention a longer term 70p.

On the flip side, it would need shrink below 21p to commence a path to 3p, a number we cannot calculate anything below.

Finally, amazing to realise the original film was released in 1971 !

FUTURES

Published 13/03/17

ABERDEEN ASSET MNGMT & LAURA ASHLEY (LSE:ADN & LSE:ALY)   We listed this pair as potential ISA candidates back in February. Aberdeen Asst (ADN) is currently trading around 280p, priced at our original mutter (link here) being 265p.

ADN has recently started some movement which is of interest, worthy of comment.  Essentially, should the share now trade above 309p, we'd be looking for fairly near term growth toward 334p initially with secondary, if bettered, at a longer term 376p. As the chart highlights, the BLUE downtrend since 2015 appears extremely relevent and a break now above is liable to move pretty firmly.

Once again, we'd hope "the Scottish thing" fails to impact on the company share price potentials. Below RED - currently 245p - would tend foul our optimism pretty thoroughly.

LAURA ASHLEY (LSE:ALY)  Rather amusingly, we've this lot included in 'Our ISA' table but cannot find a report compiled against the share which provided future potentials. Perhaps this is just as well given we're showing it was viewed at 18p and the share price is now trading around 16p.

Worse, the price was recently forced below the long term uptrend (circled), entering a phase where weakness now below 14.5p points at 11.5p next with secondary if (when) broken at an ultimate bottom of 9p. We're calling this an 'ultimate' 'cos we cannot calculate a number below such a point without prefacing it with a minus sign.

With Laura Ashley. there's a major "thing" which fascinates us and it's shown in BLUE since 1996. For the last couple of years the share price has been reacting to a trend since 1996 and there's little doubt any movement now above BLUE is liable to promote fireworks as a 21 year old trend being bettered is liable to provide a celebration!

The implication now is the price needs trade above 19p to indicate something happening as movement toward 21p initially looks sane with secondary a very probable 27p. Then we need review the tea leaves...

 FUTURES

Published 12/03/17

FTSE FOR THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX)  Sometimes, a considerable amount of time is spent compiling our Sunday evening article for the coming week. And sometimes, when it's re-read prior to publication, a wonderful essay on the markets & slave labour, society, and the future gets binned. We're not economists nor even civilised at T&T. All we do are numbers and shouldn't speculate why the FTSE may reach 10,195 points. But our software says we should mention it.

Rather often, we find ourselves writing "okay, this is probably silly but..." with it transpiring our calculation wasn't silly, emphasising we should just discuss the numbers and ignore the potential for ridicule.

Apparently, if the FTSE now CLOSES a session above 7393 points OR trades intraday above 7408 points, it enters a path toward 8186 points with secondary a longer term 10,195. Stop, if triggered, can now be at a tightest 7220 points if feeling gullible.

The implication behind this statement, about which we have no opinion, is one of underlying strength, so we need look for anything capable of triggering this set of circumstances. Near term, if the FTSE trades above 7373 points, we are looking for growth toward an initial 7398 points with secondary, if bettered, at 7443 points.

And this takes the UK market into the future growth zone, essentially above Marty McFly's car trigger zone. Better still, our other Big Picture argument favouring some stutters around 7520 comes enters the top of our screens.

How do we spot it all going wrong?

Visually last week 'felt' as if an effort were being made to stop the markets going up but currently, the FTSE needs fall below 7270 to justify concern as this permits catastrophic failure to a gullible looking 7235. The reason we'd experience collywobbles at such a number is the implied near term bonk against the RED uptrend, along with an implied threat of 7160 points. Or even 7085 if it all starts going wrong swiftly.

At such a level, we'd need revisit the numbers again due to the threat of a further 300 point droop.

For now though, the markets look rather strong.

FUTURES

Published 09/03/17

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX)  Before launching into a tirade as to Fridays immediate potentials, we always start with a glance at the Big Picture and noticed something quite interesting for the FTSE. Essentially, if it now were to close a session above 7393, it enters a cycle toward 8186 initially with secondary 10195 points.  Stop can be just 7201 points.

If the FTSE were a share, we'd already be thinking it intends hit 8186 in the fullness of time but this, probably, isn't one to print out and stick on the wall. (just yet)

But we shall cover this scenario in our next report for the coming week. It's impossible to ignore the market tends grow in the face of negative media commentary by (increasingly less respected) analysts, so we're taking a look upward.

However, our analysis for the FTSE on Friday provides the immediate report - as always, please remember we are discussing the FTSE and NOT after hours FTSE futures.

The FTSE closed Thursdays session at 7316 points with movements during the day providing a surprising degree of encouragement for Friday. The immediate situation suggests anything near term above 7322 points should provoke a fairly boring 7334 points but the secondary, if bettered, is at 7358 points. If triggered, stop can be at a fairly wide 7265 points. Or if insane, 7295 points as this is the tightest possible game plan. And of course, if the day goes nuts for any reason, 7440 is shown at the top of the chrat!

On the flip side of the coin, what happens if 7265 breaks?

We'd expect initial weakness toward 7246 points with secondary, if broken, at 7186 points. The tightest stop is at 7312 points.

FUTURES

Published 08/03/17

ARGOS RESOURCES (LSE:ARG)  For a budget day, the market proved remarkably placid with the FTSE closing unchanged. While the usual "wait 24 hours" rule will doubtless apply until folk digest what was actually said, we'd submit that should the FTSE trade above 7361 on Thursday that things are liable to become upwardly interesting. But what happened with BRENT CRUDE is liable to derail things, along with some of the minor share prices.

ARGOS RESOURCES is one we've never run the numbers against but a quick scan revealed an immediate problem. Absolute bottom on this share calculates at 6.02p, a number it broke at the start of 2015 and reaching a low of 3.5 in the period since. But crucially, it's still trading, albeit firmly below the 6p level with price movements almost looking completely automated.

From our perspective, we'd be inclined to pay attention quite closely if any miracle returns this share price above 6p as growth to an initial 7.5p should follow, perhaps even 11.25 if the movement is boosted with positive news.

The funny thing is, back in August 2016 the share price sleepwalked through the ruling downtrend and has done nothing since. Often this is simply a straightforward sign of a company awaiting positive news but at least the price is now in a zone where things could move very fast. Unfortunately, by trading below 6p, it remains in a region where negative news could utterly trash the share as we cannot calculate a target without prefacing it with a minus sign.

For now, even a mid-price above 5.5p would provide sufficient reason to raise an eyebrow, indicating something positive about to happen!

FUTURES

Published 07/03/17

JUBILEE PLAT. (LSE:JLP) Here's the link - again - to our potential 1/4 million pound trade article exclusively for Interactive Investor. Basically, a trade at £100 per point would have yielded a blooming good result with a negligible stop loss. And to confirm, it was THE ONLY article for 2016 where we said "Print it and stick on the wall! " As can be guessed, we've received a lot of emails regarding the analysis and our gobs remain smacked.

Equally, our recent article on AFC Energy' potentials appears to have been well received but we doubt our immediate thoughts on Jubilee's immediate prospects will make folk terribly happy. Essentially, should JLP mid-price now trade below 5.575p, we'd anticipate coming weakness toward 4.75p.  While this is not scary, the influence of the RED uptrend hopefully will provoke a bounce as movement below RED enters the danger zone as we're showing 3.1p as possible.

However, we'd prefer exhibit some optimism here as the big picture doesn't suck.

The recent spike to 7.5p was fairly significant, showing a "higher high" and now suggesting closure above 6.5p should herald growth toward 8.25 initially with secondary a very probable 10.75p. It makes us suspect any near term shenanigans toward 4.75p can probably be regarded with favour as a potential entry point.

Good luck.

FUTURES

Published 06/03/17

AFC Energy (LSE:AFC) We last covered this share back in 2015 and expressed some reservations about its potentials, being particularly paranoid of what risked happening if the share price closed a session below 35.25p. Unusually, we're NOT giving a link to the prior article, not because it was wrong but rather, in amazement of Interactive Investor letting us get away with something so rude.

Thankfully, our sense of ridiculous has evolved (slightly) but we're still not entirely convinced AFC has stopped "extracting the **** ". Which gives a clue to the content of the prior article.

To slip into teacher mode, the share price is displaying some quite rare behaviour. Currently trading around the 13p mark, the 'dashed blue' line on the chart is giving us problems. It displays share closing prices since December 13th last year and this suggests we cannot take any price growth seriously until such time the share CLOSES a session above 16.089p currently. As the 'dashed blue' line is descending at roughly 0.089p per day, by 28 days time the share price will be forced to do something.

This is where the problem arises as it seems anything now below 12.75 risks triggering weakness toward 10p with secondary, if broken, at 7.75p and hopefully a bounce. But something worth considering is the RED uptrend since 2009. Currently, this trend is just about at the 10p level and we'd strongly suspect a bunch of folk, if seeing the share price at 10p, will assume it a buy opportunity and jump in, thus creating an early bounce! We can hope.

As always with our little bundle of misery, we've a "however" and in this case it's quite interesting.

While CLOSURE above 16p is needed to signal the share has really slipped its shackles, if we disregard such a signal and rely on our software, apparently trades now above 15p should prove capable of generating 17p and a bonk against the downtrend since 2015 (when we were last being quite rude). Our secondary, if such a target is bettered, comes in at 21.75p along with the need to re-run the numbers - some of the future potentials will be worth mentioning.

FUTURES

Published 05/03/17

FTSE FOR THE WEEK (FTSE:UKX)  Friday was irritating. It's one thing to speculate "all the action will happen at the open", quite another to glance at the FTSE at 8:01am and discover all the days action had already happened. Our drip target of 7350 was, crucially, NOT broken with the day low proving to be 7353 points and thus, some strength remains.

So, we start March in a strong position with nothing major politically on the horizon. Aside, of course, from a UK Budget this week, the Scots expected to announce IR#2, and the UK triggering Brexit negotiations later in the month. Nothing major then...

But by 3 points, our drop target was not broken and therefore our outpouring of optimism is justified for the UK marketplace.

It's a wee bit crackers, not to say frustrating, the continuous small false starts keep altering our projections but the current situation holds out some room for hope. The immediate situation is fairly simple insofar as anything above 7400 points at coming growth to 7450 initially with secondary, if bettered, at 7570 points. We're still not dreadfully comfortable with that secondary due to The Big Picture demanding 7520 as a major point of interest. To cancel this apparent cycle to 7570, the index needs below 7240 points.

So, what happens if 7240 breaks?

Maybe nothing! Last year, with the Brexit Vote, the market broke trends downward immediately and a similar doom was dealt with the Trump vote. But neither instance proved "honest, reliable, or truthful" as the market exhibited strong growth in the days afterward. It begs the obvious, dare we trust any drop following this weeks Budget, the following weeks SNP conference, or the coming Article 50 declaration?

Our inclination will be to hold fire on any hysterics until seeing the FTSE below 7080 points. This would prove to be a bad thing, allowing coming weakness toward 6970 initially with secondary a very possible 6840 points.

For now, in the absence of anything actually proven to be dangerous, the market looks blooming strong.

Finally, we've knocked together something about the DOW JONES rise recently. It's at this link.

FUTURES

Published 02/03/17 

THE DOW, THE FTSE, THE AIM, FROGS AND THE FUTURE... It's not often we get to link Frogs with the stock market but we've noticed over the years that when the UK has some decent weather, the stock markets tend to prove quite buoyant and interesting. Probably 'cos people feel better and optimistic on sunny days... A forestry track locally has some deep ruts which invariably fill with water. Very early in February, these ruts were also full of frog spawn, a month earlier than usual. It suggests frogs are expecting the ruts to dry out by end of April, therefore hinting at good weather ahead. It's amazing how often this country bumpkin stuff works out!

Thus, this might not be a "sell in May and go away" year.

AIM MARKET (FTSE:AXX) Our last 'Big Picture' diatribe about the UK's AIM market was December last year (link here) where we'd proposed coming growth toward 900 points, maybe even 996 points if everything turned out okay. The AIM is now trading around 910 points and so, our prediction of a 13% rise has come to fruition. Better still, our initial target level was bettered, and so despite some near term stutters, our longer term 996 has become a valid obsession. To slow the immediate upward cycle down, the market needs below 800. And to crush our hope for the future, it needs below 704 points.

Absolutely critical in this recovery of the AIM market will be the day it closes above 970 points as this will point at a future 1245 points, matching the highs of 2007 and doubtless pretty useful for many AIM market constituents. Hopefully the frogs know a thing or two...

THE DOW JONES (DOWi;DJI) Last October we produced twin predictions exclusively on Interactive Investor about the DOW and the FTSE (link here) and suggested they be printed out and kept. And in the best traditions of Trends and Targets, we promptly forgot about 'em until a few emails arrived. Long story short, we'd proposed 20525 as a major target for the DOW and 7218 as a major point of interest for the FTSE. At the time, the markets were 18150 for the DOW and 6996 for the FTSE.

This is one of these situations where we were proven correct but from our stance, it's more interesting reviewing what actually happened when our target was achieved. In the case of the DOW it was quite telling. The index hit our target level and stuttered for a week, then on Feb 21st the market was gapped higher in a clear indication there was a belief a future high note could be hit.

So, where is that high note?

If the DOW now betters 21125 we calculate further climbs to 21277 are possible. Then the market must obviously collapse - except it probably will not. The USA has 'form' in simply jumping obstacles by gapping the index up and thus, above 21277 now provokes 21617 points.

The DOW JONES is already trading at levels 'respected' analysts believed impossible but we're going to stick our neck out and suggest if this index every actually achieves 21617 points, then rushing out to open a short with a fairly tight stop might not be the silliest notion. Our reasoning is simple.

The calculation which gives 21617 is based on the low of March 2009 when the DOW JONES hit 6470. While our formula for extrapolating the future proves extraordinarily reliable (most of the time) it simply cannot currently give any number above 21617 with any confidence. Essentially the index requires some volatility to generate oomph for a future beyond such a level. The alternative may also prove true - our program skills may be missing something - an obligatory caveat.

With shares, usually an "ultimate top" number will provoke a period of stutters and false starts, then a droop to (hopefully) bounce against the immediate uptrend. In the case of the DOW, this uptrend is currently at 20300 points.

Time will tell. Entirely up to the reader whether this is printed out and kept. It's just - currently - above 21617 will leave us uncomfortably clueless until we figure out where the heck the new trend is!

and finally...

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) Our twice weekly FTSE mutters are proving popular articles this year, something we feel both intimidated and irritated about. Intimidated, 'cos we're not infallible, irritated 'cos the same level of work is applied to shares covered in the headline section. For instance, our recent 11 shares covered for this years ISA bundle are collectively up 4.5% in just a few weeks. Unusually, we remembered to create a specific table for just these shares and shall revisit them a few times as the year progress'.

The FTSE closed Thursday at 7385, managing to achieve an exceedingly boring day. We'd alarm bells ringing due to the opening spike toward 7394 as it felt this would enable weakness toward 7350 - nothing terribly alarming for a Thursday. Instead the day proved becalmed but anything now below 7374 is expected to visit 7350 initially. If triggered, stop needs be above 7387 at its tightest. In fact, this is almost too much of a gift horse as the secondary, if 7350 breaks, is at 7338 points.

The market rarely gifts a 36 point drop which only requires a 13 point stop. Maybe all the action will occur at 8am when the FTSE opens?

It's perhaps worth recalling the underlying market pressure remains upward on the FTSE as we started the week proposing 7425 as a pretty important point of interest. Near term, we're forced to change our tune a bit as above 7395 looks capable of 7448 points initially with secondary now coming in at 7566. We're not terribly impressed with the secondary as 7520 presents itself as a major stutter level in any rise.

None of the above is particularly earthshaking and the RED line on the chart is currently at 7093.87 points, this being the accurate level of the trend since the Brexit vote thing.

FUTURES

Published 01/03/17 

ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND (LSE:RBS) Using the last 3 days of the month for an update against the retail banks fell apart with the discovery that February only has 28 days... This is not heralding a new tradition of starting months with a look at the banks. Unusually, a decision was made to watch Pres. Trumps speech to the US parliament as it's been clear this week the markets were awaiting "something".

Guess what, "something" seems to have happened as the markets appear to be breaking free of their recent slumber. It's quite odd, while Pres. Trump seemed to come across as rather more measured than during his adversarial debates, the content of his speech has been broadly forgotten while his delivery approach seemed similar to sending a Tweet. He'd strongly present something, then hesitate to check it hadn't exceeded some sort of mental 140 character limit. It reminded of Mrs Thatcher's 8 second rule when she was making a point. It's fair to ask what this has to do with RBS?

We watched closely movements against RBS on the DOW during the evening session in the hope of it exaggerating its movements on the FTSE during the Wednesday but unfortunately, once London went to the pub at 4:30pm, the evil US clone did absolutely nothing interesting.

However, we've some hope from its session in the UK as there's an interesting small potential showing, hopefully capable of 'proving' the price has bottomed. Near term, above just 245.8 is supposed to provoke growth toward 249.4p. And if 249.4 is bettered, the first box of a "bottom being in" can be ticked as movement toward 264p can be anticipated.

At this point, a glance at the chart is required as we've painted a glass ceiling at 260p. RBS now needs CLOSURE above 260p to make some growth about as inevitable as possible on the market as we'd hope for movement toward 277p initially with secondary, if bettered, at 321p and a bonk against the long term downtrend since 2008.

Of course, when discussing RBS, we always imagine a bank with a corporate logo wearing a clown costume!

The share price recently described a GapUp GapDown dance and this introduced the potential of weakness near term toward 222p - if the usual GaGa rules continue to be applied. Unfortunately, the share price needs better 249.4p to utterly cancel the GaGa calculation. Should RBS attain 222p. we'd expect another bounce anyway.

FUTURES

Published 28/02/17

BARCLAYS (LSE:BARC) Barclays join that disgraced group of shares who exceeded their immediate downtrend, then retreated below it again. Is it a sign the Trumpeteers, Brexiteers, Corbyneers or iScoteers might have a point. Driven by media hysteria, our last BARCLAYS report (link here) focussed on misery potentials.

Now, about the only thing we feel comfortable mentioning is the level of hysteria by media which doesn't seem to report news anymore, just the tantrum of a spoilt child not getting its own way. Since 2012 our office has been unsullied by daily newspapers, a choice due to realisation the only news tends be on the letters page whereas opinions are found on the front page. And that's not how it's supposed to be. Plus, of course, Google News gives of page of 'actual headlines', insulating from the need to actually read the source. Aside - of course - from the (sometimes awesome) MATT cartoon on the Telegraph website...

We suspect trend analysis has never been more important. After all, had anyone believed the pre-Brexit-vote media, the FTSE should be somewhere around 4,000 points and Barclays share price down at 78p. Despite media rhetoric, neither has happened and we're just about bored silly from searching for viable signs of doom. It seems, despite Scotland, Corbyn, Brexit, or Trump, life continues to happen.

So, how about BARCLAYS?

Last time we wrote about them, we'd suspected above 235 would lead to 242 would lead to 254p. Thus far, the share achieved a high of 244.4p and normally we'd be cheerfully awaiting the next surge above this level provoking 254p. But as BLUE on the chart shows, the share managed to break trend for just a few sessions and has now been driven below again and this is always blooming confusing - the suggestion being 'this trend isn't being treated as a trend'.

We're not terribly alarmed at this, due to BARCLAYS previously bettering the downtrend since 2007 and we 'know' this trend was valid. When Barclays surged to the 242p level, it was reacting to forces since 2007 and the visual evidence tends suggest this approach was indeed correct.

For now, it appears a 'glass ceiling' has formed around the 240p level, creating the scenario where CLOSURE above 239p is required to inspire growth to 254p next and we'd expect some stutters when such a level is attained. Secondary, with closure above, comes in at a longer term 305p.

What's the requirement to now consider running shoes, the Adidas question?

Retreat below the 2007 downtrend would scare us silly, suggesting coming weakness to 178p, maybe even 119p if broken. And the nice thing with this scenario is it covers ALL the circled manipulation gaps since the share price was forced down after the Brexit vote. And better still, presents a 'double bottom' game potential.

But for now, absolutely nothing is suggesting such a drop! In fact, if the share were to even better a near term 237p, we'd raise a lazy eyebrow with interest. Sometimes 'trends which are not trends turn out to be trends...'

We never suggested this nonsense is simple!

FUTURES

Published 27/02/17 

LLOYDS BANKING GROUP (LSE:LLOY) It's taken nearly 5 years but finally we've settled into a rhythm for analysis reports. Our FTSE day trade for every Friday is popular, our weekly outlook for the UK market seems to be well quoted and now, ending every month with a glance at the retail banks makes a lot of sense.

We'd gushed excitement last month, predicting moves for Lloyds above 66.59 anticipated an initial 68.5 with secondary, if bettered, at 75p. Lloyds has certainly obliged with the first part of the bargain but realistically, we would have expected our 75p to wander into sight by now. Of course, this number is noticeable by its absence (so far) but the share price has been doing a lot of the right things, just very slowly. And another problem has reared its ugly head.

The BLUE downtrend since 2015 is - today - at 71.823p. For the nerds out there, it's declining at a rate of 0.024p per day - aka slowly. We'd made the mistake of assuming the circled gap upward last week was a decision to move the price above the trend and this turns out to be a symptom of wishful thinking rather than actually paying closer attention to the numbers. We shall not be surprised if the share now exhibits some reversal as anything near term below 68.27p looks like it shall provoke reversal to 66.5p, covering the circled manipulation gap and hopefully capable of spreading some trampoline juice on the price.

If Lloyds now ideally CLOSES above 71.823p, we remain projecting 75p as a potential stutter level but realistically, a longer term 100p looks possible.

For now though, it remains below the downtrend since 2015, it has NOT covered the Brexit manipulation gap from 72.2p, and anything now below 66p (the dashed RED line) could easily stuff this back into the slow lane, forcing reversal to 62.5p initially with secondary, if broken, at 54p...

Finally, sorry we're not using Interactive Investors new charts today - we experienced difficulty getting the new chart to load. Not really a surprise as all major improvements tend experience short term glitches.

 FUTURES

Published 26/02/17 

FTSE THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX)  Something a bit scary ended last week. The FTSE trashed the uptrend since the start of December due to whatever was announced at 10am on Friday and the downward break proved very deliberate. While the drop even broke (briefly) below our postulated 7207 target, the market described an amazing recovery which leaves us breathless for what is coming!

As usual though, we've a problem as the bounce from "bottom" (which it broke briefly) needed better roughly 7267.16 to signal future upward oomph can be expected. However, the FTSE closed the week at 7243.7 - below the uptrend and in quite dangerous territory, especially as the market has already illustrated weakness below 7207 is present.

But the market did bounce, fairly convincingly, and after hours futures witnessed the FTSE reach 7272 before the futures market closed for the weekend and everyone went to the pub. Perhaps some optimism is allowed as should the market managed above 7267 this week, wed be looking for growth toward an initial 7324 points with secondary, if bettered, at 7425 points. Given recent pitiful market movements, we're perhaps being too gullible dangling such strong incentives but the index would need move below last weeks low of 7192 to burst our bubble.

At this point, we'll take the attitude of treating the market as if it were a share and if it were, we'd strongly suspect it's stuffed.

The FTSE did CLOSE below the immediate uptrend and the drop to 7192 was 15 points below our expectation. And once again, we've a week starting with a Monday and Mondays often stink.

The scenario now is of movement below 7192 leading to 7173 points initially. Secondary, if broken, is at 7104 points and the risk of taking the FTSE out of the Big Picture mapping which allows of 7520 as a "top" on this cycle. Additionally, if RED on the chart breaks, chart pattern enthusiasts will start shrieking about "Double Tops" and then we will mention 6975 points, maybe even 6850 if we lose our sense of humour.

FUTURES

Published 23/02/17 

FTSE for FRIDAY (LSE:UKX) This week has been pretty boring on the FTSE but the movement in the closing 20 minutes bothers us quite a lot. While Thursdays are supposed to stink, due to Ex-Div adjustments, by the end of the day all manipulation has been enacted but at 4:10pm, the market moved below the February uptrend (such as it was).

When we review January, the market broke the months uptrend around the 18th and slumped rather nastily for the rest of the month. It obviously begs the question, are we about to witness February coming to an end with a whimper?

The immediate situation (based on extrapolating just 20 minutes movement) suggests weakness below a near term 7262 will lead to a not very scary 7251 points. Secondary, if such a point breaks, calculates at 7207 points. We're not sure the secondary will prove viable, given the dashed RED line on the chart - an uptrend since the start of December last year.

As always, we've a "however". We don't trust end of day movements, especially when they do something this obvious. There's going to be a bunch of folk with coloured crayons doing exactly what we've done below and equally, rushing to the conclusion the market is probably about to be stuffed for a while. Balancing all the negativity is the recent BLUE downtrend with considerable control being applied to the High of Day on the market since February 20th. It tells us the market need now better 7310, making the slump at the close on the 23rd a 'fake' as growth toward a near term 7325 initially with secondary 7346 points. In fact, if it all goes nuts, we're still extrapolating 7362 further up the food chain. With 7520 a distant possibility. To cancel THESE prospects, the FTSE (ie; the market itself, NOT FTSE after hours futures) needs now break below 7100.

FUTURES

Published 22/02/17 

A G BARR (LSE:BAG) We're winding up our ISA candidates with A G BARR, makers of Irn Bru and probably some other products too. There's something fairly interesting going on with this lot from a trend perspective and we've drawn a circle around the evidence.

The share appears to have a viable downtrend sine 2011 when the price was 14 quid. This trend appears to be confirmed this year, if we judge price moves since the start of January. What we look for is an initial surge upward, essentially a challenge of the HIGH before trend break.

Then we ideally want the price to retreat and bounce a bit from the historical trend.

And finally, we get to the place the share is now illustrating, a Higher High since trend break and some hope for the future.

To disengage "teacher mode", what does this all mean?

Trades now above 526p are fairly interesting, suggesting the potential of the price fizzing up to 556p is coming. Secondary (with CLOSURE above BLUE) calculates at 605p but critically, this is where the trend from 2011 comes into play as the secondary might also be a longer term 774p. Or in other words, this becomes a viable ISA candidate.

Finally, as the RED line shows, the price needs close around 450p to justify panic - an emotion similar to tasting Barr's American Cream Soda... For now, it feels quite encouraging toward our 556 suggestion.

FUTURES

Published 21/02/17 

ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT (LSE:ADN) This continues our ISA candidate analysis (link to our prior ADN analysis) but there's something perhaps remembering with Scottish focussed companies. While south of the border, the media (sometimes) pretends to be sane, if north of the border the media treats any future Scotland with similar fervour to that employed when discussing Corbyn, Trump, Brexit, etc. The reason for this hysteria, we suspect, is to lay the political groundwork against any future Scottish Indie referendum.

A writer for a Scottish publication was giving a talk in a local hotel. The venue was modest, the time chosen stupid. Going to listen to a writer at 7pm on a wet, cold, windy, miserable Friday evening was going to take fortitude. And there was a problem.

Standing room only. The venue was quite literally mobbed, abuzz with cheery conversation while everyone waited for the journalist.

The writer - his name's Paul Kavanagh - has a column where he humorously and cheerfully debunks false headlines about Scotland from the mainstream media. The venue was mobbed, we didn't stay - no writer is worth leaning against a wall for a couple of hours - except perhaps our stuff... Nah.

There's once again liable to be hysterical backlash against Scotland focussed things if the 'usual' negative campaigns get underway. It's probably worth factoring this in, if considering the like of ADN or tomorrows victim, A G BARR, as an ISA candidate for the next year. Though, if the nastiness kicks off, we'll be trying to identify share price "bottoms".

Surprisingly, ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT didn't exactly get a hammering prior to the last IndieRef as the share price essentially flattened during the 2014. However, despite our reticence about price movements being "too obvious", the share indeed reversed toward our proposed 205p, finally being bounced from 212p which was close enough for us. Unfortunately, while the bounce has achieved 355p, it actually needed above 376p to permit a declaration of safety. Instead, the price is now floundering a bit with anything near term below 244p suggesting coming weakness toward 205 (again) with secondary, if broken, at a hopefully bouncy bottom of 154p.

As the BLUE line suggests, the price needs above 325p just to hint it intends some proper growth but for now, it sucks. Not shown on the chart - due to scaling - is the uptrend from 2002. This (currently invisible) RED line hits the 150's later this year, making our silly sounding bottom potential at 154p painfully viable.

Finally, ultimate bottom against this - the "we've issued bad news number" - is at 70p. We cannot calculate below such a level.

FUTURES

Published 20/02/17

RENTOKIL (LSE:RTO) Our ISA candidate commentary continues and we're looking at Rentokil. Needless to say, the inspiration (yet again for RTO) came from a mouse. A habit of leaving the office outside door ajar to stop the dogs playing the "can we get out, so we can bark to get in, so we can bark to get out" game came to an abrupt end a couple of days ago. The mouse which scuttled into the office challenged any last vestige of manliness and provoked a (successful - by Georgina who does admin) hunt.

Mice like peanut butter, it transpires. Mousetraps, less so.

We last viewed Rentokil back in 2013 when it was around a quid. We'd proposed a rising cycle toward 179p, an ambition finally achieved last year with the price tending to "prove" the formula by flatlining at the target level for 4 months. We should really have issued an update when the share reached target but, in fairness, we cannot watch everything all the time.

The share price remains interesting with the current scenario suggesting trades anytime soon above 242p can now indulge some growth toward 265p. But there's a massive "however" lurking in the wings as the Big Picture signals the price should expect some pretty solid stutters around the 248p. It's unusual for our near term and longer term formula to effectively overlap like this, so our inclination is to propose CLOSURE above 248p suggests 265p initially but the longer term secondary of 316p can also be taken seriously.

To spoil the party, the share price would require retreating below RED, currently 198p. And if our theory of some stutters around the 248p level proves correct, it may be worth watching for reversal capable of covering the manipulation gap at 211p as an ideal world would expect a bonk against the immediate uptrend (RED) in such a scenario, then a bounce.

For the longer term, this one looks quite encouraging and if considering it for an ISA, it appears to be close to the point some acrobatics can be expected with a potential lower entry point...

FUTURES

Published 19/02/17

THE FTSE UPDATE (FTSE:UKX) and BRENT too. There's been times recently when we've been quite puzzled at just what the heck is going on with the markets. Behaviour with the FTSE, S&P, and DOW will often leave us quite perplexed, even feeling slightly clueless. And then the penny dropped.

We've never been here before!

The index' are literally boldly going where they've never been and trying to apply logic which has worked since 2009 ceased being a good idea when the markets started mapping new highs. It's not that we're getting things wrong - the behaviour of the FTSE when it reached 7358 proved conclusively our calculations remain correct - but instead, we'd grown used to things happening within rough timeframes and now, this prior mental framework is now longer viable.

A case in point - while not being FTSE - is BRENT CRUDE. We'd given two target levels against this, firstly an expectation of 57 USD with secondary, if bettered, at 61 USD. Back at the start of January, BRENT achieved 57.11 and has resolutely refused to close a session above this point in the period since. In fact, the product has illustrated remarkable stability, feeling similar to the period through 2014 until the collapse which was to lead to 28 USD. Currently, BRENT would require dripping below 48 USD before we'd dare suggest our 61 USD thing is impossible but we must concede, the basic argument of "if it ain't goin' up, it's goin' down" risks applying.

So, having laid our excuses out beforehand, what do we expect for the FTSE this week? It's worth remembering the key number for more big picture oomph will be closure above 7338 points, so we must look for reasons capable of triggering this honeypot. Near term, if feels like anything now above 7308 points should start a cycle toward 7362 points. If triggered, it needs below 7225 to cancel the growth prospect. Our secondary above 7362 is at 7520 though we'd advocate a large degree of scepticism against this, if thinking it could happen within the week.

The market is just not moving very fast.

Of course, what happens if 7225 fails? We'll be looking for weakness toward 7170 initially with secondary a rather concerning 7060 points. As the chart shows, this takes us into the realm of low lows with the risk of some real misery for the future.

FUTURES

Published 16/02017

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX)  The market has experienced an almost amusing week, averaging 18 points a day of range. Or in plain English, utterly rubbish. For us to have justified concerns about any reversal near term, the index needs slip below 7226 points to signal a path to an initial 7175 points. And if the breaks, secondary calculates at 7080 points.

However, we were interested in a movement on the FTSE just 40 minutes before the day closed as the momentary sojourn at 7293 was higher than expected given the lacklustre day - though Thursdays are usually a bit rubbish, due to Ex-Div things. If we're right in what we saw, there's a chance Friday may prove interesting.

Near term, above 7293 allows growth toward a useless 7301 points with secondary, if bettered, at a more interesting 7331 points.

This is where it all gets a bit crazy. On Wednesday 15th's evening, FTSE Futures managed 7335 points whereas the best the FTSE itself achieved during the session was 7313 points. Generally when this sort of thing happens after hours, the market is opened at the Futures level the next morning but instead, the FTSE was plunged to 7278 on Thursday morning at the open and spent the rest of the session comprehensively doing nothing.

We've a sneaking suspicion the market "really" wants a stab at 7331 so perhaps worth watching for near term. If triggered above 7293, the index would need below 7270 to trash the immediate upward prospects, thus a fairly useful stop loss position.

As usual, here's hopping. . . and as always, remember we are talking about trading during FTSE opening hours, not after hours futures.

(Oh, thanks for the emails. That bloke is STILL looking for his falcon. A joke about radio controlled airplanes didn't go well)

FUTURES

Published 15 Feb 2017

Published 14 Feb 2017

GULF KEYSTONE (LSE:GKP)  This presents an excellent valentines day opportunity - but only for those 'into' S&M... We've had a few emails asking for our viewpoint against this lots potentials as an ISA candidate. For the immeasurably brave.

We'd be pretending if we suggested we're comfortable about any trend the price is following. We've circled something which happened last year and while visually it perhaps shows an attempt to define a trend, we're lacking confidence. The bunched moves calculate with a trend at 125p currently but if this is the case, the price has sleepwalked through the dotted line without any positive or negative reaction. It's likely our line is just an exercise in art.

About all we dare is suggest some target levels based on immediate criteria and point out what's crucial about the targets isn't whether they are achieved but instead, if they are bettered. Common sense will signal if any upper targets are bettered, there's a good chance the price has bottomed with future growth becoming a sane ambition.

If the share price would just manage above 142p, it's supposed to head to 160p initially with secondary, if bettered, at 190p. In themselves, these are useless ambitions as the price needs better BLUE at 571p currently before we'd dare let off a party popper. However, the September / October nonsense last year has created the potential for a glass ceiling around the 230p level, so we'd regard the price becoming interesting if it would find an excuse to better 230p.

We're finding it difficult to express optimism about this lots prospects, especially as anything now below 123p starts a path toward 110p initially but probably 96p if worsened. For a "normal" share we'd hope for a bounce at 96p but GKP's track record makes it impossible to avoid mentioning all big picture targets are prefaced with minus signs. Unless it somehow discovers sufficient oomph to better BLUE (571 currently), we've no choice but to advise caution.

FUTURES

Published 13 Feb 2017

CARD FACTORY PLC (LSE:CARD)  As we wake up to one on the traditional days of wasting money on Greeting Cards (Valentines Cards...), a look at Card Factory PLC's share price potentials seemed justified, especially as it's ISA capable. The funny thing is, the word greeting has an entirely different meaning in Scotland and makes us wonder if there's a lack of interest in this industry north of the border.

This isn't a joke. In Scotland, greeting means crying and thus, why would anyone be interested in giving a "crying card". Language can be a funny thing.

However, the industry which finds ways to celebrate nothing appears to have a company on the verge of becoming slightly interesting. To get the bad news out of the way first, closure now below 227 would be a bad thing, generating the excuse for price reversal toward 150p. We cannot calculate anything accurately below such a point.

As the chart shows, the price is very obviously reacting to the BLUE downtrend in a way which suggests the recent drop to 232p was perhaps sufficiently close to 227p and signals some inherent strength. We shall not be aghast if the price makes another lunge downward again toward 227p before a surprise recovery above blue!

This brings the argument - for the weeks ahead - of any price growth bettering BLUE - currently 256p - as leading to an initial 267p. Secondary, if 267p bettered, comes in at 290p, maybe even 342p if we're witnessing an attempt to cover the circled manipulation gaps.

With the share currently trading around 245p, the best we're proposing if everything comes right is a rise of 100p. Which should be sufficient to cover the quid wasted on a valentines card at the petrol station! Some years, I even suspect our dogs don't appreciate them.

FUTURES

Published 12 Feb 2017

The FTSE this week (FTSE:UKX)  We're intending to continue our ISA contender views as the week progress'. Sometimes though, looking for the right share is like helping someone find their lost pet. As folks with dogs know, it's invariably a black Labrador which has gone missing and equally invariably, the dog and people are found reunited by the time you finish your walk. Saturday's pet search was different and reminded of the trouble finding a decent share.

"What've you lost?" was the obvious question.

"A Falcon," came the unexpected answer.

The bloke was wandering around carrying what looked like an old fashioned TV antenna - apparently the bird wears an ankle bracelet - meaning the rest of my walk was spent gazing skyward, fruitless & falcon-less. Hopefully we experience better success finding ISA candidates though sometimes, the similarity of the search method worries us. The chap was again wandering around on the hill the next day, this time accompanied by someone swinging dead meat on a string... to the intense interest of our dogs!

Anyway, it's Monday and therefore The FTSE for the week.  Our outlook at the start of last week (link here) mentioned 7275 as secondary target and it was achieved, finally, by 8.30am on Friday morning, the High of Week being 7274.8 points.

The next thing we're interested in will come if the market somehow now starts trading above 7283 points. Such a result enters a growth phase toward 7313 points - pretty useless. Secondary is a more encouraging all time high of 7365 points.

Regular readers will perhaps remember we'd expected issues in the 7300's. The first bonk against 7350 occurred in January and our new target of 7365 can again be expected to provoke some sort of stumble for a probable few days. But, assuming our 7365 thing comes to fruition, we are now viewing the market as heading toward 7520 as a major point of interest. To foul the upswing, the market needs slop below 7155 currently.

If the worst happens and 7155 breaks, we're calculating coming weakness toward 7056 points, perhaps even 6980 and a donk against the non BREXIT vote uptrend. (we've two trends and suspect the real one ignores the Brexit vote market manipulation)

FUTURES

Published 08 Feb 2017

AO WORLD (LSE:AO.) & FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) This lot flagged up as potentially being interesting for an ISA. It transpired we'd written about them two months ago for another reason (Here's the link) but unsurprisingly, the share is still valid as a bit of a risky punt. The thing is, the opportunity is there, just not triggered yet. Perhaps some research into fundamental information may not be wasted time.

To get the misery out of the way first, from a Big Picture perspective, it's stuffed. Until such time the share price betters BLUE, it's trading in a region with 93p as the potential "we issued bad news" bottom. Secondary calculates at a "must bounce" 10p

However, there can be little doubt BLUE is seen as pretty important to the nice folk who decide price' direction and currently this price level is at 176.509p or so. Apparently, if the trend continues, in 81 days the share faces a "show and tell" movement, a point where it either must break trend and give hope for the future or face a further decline toward 130p and a challenge against the RED uptrend since 2015. To be honest, we shall not be surprised should this happen, hopefully prior to a miracle upward surge as the price would visually challenge the prior lows of 2016. Coupling this event with a long term uptrend gives plenty of reason to hope for a recoil.

To slip on the teacher hat, there's a pretty visible glass ceiling apparent at 200p or so and we've little doubt should this price manage to better the innocent pink line, some reasonable rises can be hoped for. In this event, our growth tier of 202 / 230 / 270p remains utterly unchanged.

In summary, like everything associated with the market, it's risky but perhaps worth a glance for the brave. Next week, we'll look at some so called blue chips. (no such thing!)

FTSE FOR FRIDAY. Our effort last week certainly merited a prized "smug gits" award and hopefully we can replicate the success on the 10th February. The immediate situation now suggests movement on the market above 7230 should provoke an initial 7259 points which is believable. The secondary calculates at 7313 points though hoping for an 83 point day against a backdrop of February only showing a range of just over 200 points (so far) may be naive.

If the movement triggers, stop needs be  pretty wide as 7165 or below breaks the immediate uptrend for February. In fact, even below the 7200 level would bother us as it would signal a retreat below the BLUE downtrend for 2017 - not a good thing.

On a broader note, we've been fairly heartened at some shares breaking their triggers for substantial upward travel though remain concerned at the banking sectors lethargy. Essentially, it appears the banks remain capable of spoiling any optimism for the year, a familiar sentiment.

FUTURES

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Published 08 Feb 2017

SIRIUS MINERALS (LSE:SXX)  This share must surely come into the "dodgy" category for ISA contenders, simply due to the inability of rises to actually stick. From 2011 until 2016, it was actually appearing as if the market simply was not going to let it better 30p. Ever!

All changed in 2016 - or at least we thought so for a couple of months. Regular readers will know the price accelerated to our proposed target level of 49p from July 2016 (link here), even bettering it slightly on the day before opting to behave like a ramped AIM penny share. What makes us nervous has been the intensity of reversal. In an ideal world, the drop should have bounced from 18.5p but instead the price has managed to hover above and below this level like a politicians integrity while examining an expense receipt he found exploring a neighbours wheelie bin... To be clear, if Sirius now broadcast bad news, it could easily slink down to 8p in a blink. Worse, we cannot calculate below such a number currently without prefacing targets with minus signs. Perhaps the long term RED uptrend will be used to provoke a bounce around the 15p level. If there's any hidden strength, we'd hope this the case.

Having given the reasons for our "dodgy" classification, where's the silver lining?

Our Trend Tool advises the price must currently better 28.351p before we dare take any rise seriously. There's nothing particularly clever about this calculation, it simply examines the numbers behind the BLUE line on the chart and extrapolates the trend to a specific date. In the case of SXX, this share apparently has until the END of April before it must show its hand, assuming the soporific price movements since last November continue. This results in the situation where the share risks being tucked up nicely in an ISA during the latest point where it must move.

Of course, sometimes (rarely) we're talking rubbish with these trend lines. If we've been watching the wrong trend, a price can simply sleepwalk through BLUE... Usually, if the market intends a serious rise, the price will move through a trend a few weeks before our target date.

For now, we shall be slightly interested if anything manages move the share above 20p as growth to an initial 22p looks sane. Our secondary is more interesting, suggesting 26.5p and the potential of a challenge against BLUE in the weeks ahead. Only with closure above BLUE could we dare mention 40p and 60p in the same breath.

In summary, this one's a challenge, especially given the two circles on the chart where the price was manipulated downward last year. If a movement from 20 to 22p triggers, we'll be watching fairly closely as anything bettering the initial 22p will be an indication of potential hidden oomph.

FUTURES

Published 07 Feb 2017

ESURE INSURANCE (LSE:ESUR) We're looking at ISA compatible shares currently, including some "dodgy" punts, along with some which pretend sanity. Please remember we 'only' comment from a trend perspective and you may feel it wise to check some fundamentals against stocks covered.

ESUR, at first glance, looks dangerous. The share price is currently trading in a region, lower than ever before and we've a pretty strict set of rules when dealing with limbo dancers. Similar to politicians and some Scottish delicacy's, best avoided. But as always, we've a 'however' and in this instance it's at 184p.

Whatever provoked the circled gap on the chart had a calculated drop potential of 184p. The lowest actually achieved was 183.1 with the price failing to close below 190p and therefore, despite a couple of intraday twitches below 184, it appears some strength might actually be evident. Certainly, the share price has not bounced with any passion thus far and we suspect the current boring movements could last until April, if only due to the BLUE dashed line which seems to be a trend created pre-gap. (okay, we know it was the GoCompare spin off)

The encouraging thing is that our 184p target was only broken briefly and it could simply be a calibration issue. While the price has not bounced, it now appears anything below 200p (RED) could once again signal an attempt at the 184p level. Visually, not terribly alarming and if it happens, maybe next time it will provoke a bounce.

The problem comes if the price closes below 184p. This would be bad as it threatens 139p as a bounce point.

For now, it's a boring share and one we'd not be inclined to take seriously unless the price betters 222p. This would be fairly significant, coming with an expectation of 250p and above sometime in the future.
From an irritation perspective, this lot have an enviable track record. The "Relax dear" adverts plus their then subsidiary using that gawdawful opera singer certainly attracted plenty of attention and therefore revenue. Perhaps the companies advertising people have another rock to look under for ideas?

So, risky but visually, it looks like time may heal some wounds.

Finally, please remember this week we're looking at some "Fire & Forget" shares for ISA's rather than near term trade possibilities.

FUTURES

And finally, the view from the office on a cold Tuesday evening. Sometimes Scotland doesn't suck.

Published 06 Feb 2017

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY (NYSE:BRK.A) & PROTON POWER (LSE:PPS) This is an unlikely combination to be covered, partially inspired by a recent incident when a Duracell Bunny event scared two dogs and nearly provoked a very real crash! We're mentioning this, due to the effect on Samsungs share price following their exploration of corporate terrorism. And also 'cos PPS might make a useful ISA contender...

Firstly, the Duracell incident. Our hero, Warren (the trend's your friend) Buffett is a head honcho for Berkshire - Duracell's parent -  and we were curious if a recent event with a Duracell 9v battery will become a media "thing". The immediate situation with BRK.A suggests should the share price better 248,450 USD, it will head toward 269,051 USD. In other words, currently trading at 245,646 USD it's blooming expensive and has falling potential.

Inspiration for articles comes from unlikely places and this time, it was a smoke alarm 'chirping' to alert the battery was getting flat. Perched on a dining room chair, the offending battery was slipped into a pocket while a new one was fitted. As the smoke alarm cover clicked into place, the pocketed Duracell 9v battery decided to explode. In the confines of trousers, it felt quite energetic but once the leaping around in panic phase was complete, there was no damage to material, skin, or whatever. Even the battery looked suspiciously innocent.

Eventually, it was decided the Duracell 9v battery had shorted out against the single penny which had been in the offended pocket.

Imagine our surprise when the now forgotten battery, lying on a coffee table, again detonated, throwing shrapnel over a wide area. Daily Mail headline aside, the red plastic base shattered and bits were found a couple of cm away!

It was now time for Google. And new underpants.

Other folk have experienced this phenomena, a suspicion being it's due to hydrogen created as the battery decays. We need to stress, there was NO FIRE, NO DAMAGE, just loud bangs - then the battery was dropped in a bucket of water. Oh, one of our firework averse 35 kilo Golden Retrievers decided Mrs T&T's shoulder was the only safe place in the room.

A note was dropped to Duracell, giving appropriate product code details. They replied immediately with a 5 quid thanks. To repeat, aside from the bangs, NO FIRE, NO DAMAGE, NO HARM. The battery was also past its Use By date - does anyone know batteries have dates?

But of course, should newspapers opt to introduce a "Single Immigrant Mother on State Benefits Nearly Killed when her Duracell powered Rabbit Explodes" headline campaign, there's the risk of BRK's share price doing a Samsung and that's why we're looking at this.

To indicate any reversal is serious, Berkshire Hathaway would need slip below 210,000 USD (yes, that's two hundred and ten thousand US Dollars) as this risks a cycle to 177,000, maybe even 123,000 if any scare stories prove sufficient to stop an airplane flying or a politician talking.

Aside from this explosive revelation, it looks like it will top out at 269,000 USD.

PROTON POWER (LSE:PPS) We've been asked to look at this lot as a future ISA contender. The share was last examined (link here) back in August 2016 and in the period since, the price has continued to underwhelm us. As the chart highlights, the share has refused to CLOSE above BLUE     and is now trading in a region where weakness below 2.5p suggests travel toward 1.8p and the vague hope of a bounce. But realistically, it's pretty dire and risks hitting ultimate bottom of 0.16p.

Our opinion, for what it's worth, is this needs a miracle. The current force downward must also be viewed with the backdrop of the circled area last July. Despite some intraday gymnastics, the market has refused to let the price CLOSE above BLUE, so maybe they know something.

For now, we would not trust it unless it can better 4.5p, allowing for an initial 5.1 with secondary 9p. And potentially beyond.

As ISA fodder, we're suggesting a degree of caution.

FUTURES

Published 05 Feb 2017

This Week on the FTSE. (FTSE:UKX) On Friday, the FTSE High of the Day was 7202.37 points. On our Thursday evening pre-market report for Interactive (link here) we'd written "'[FTSE] better 7164 points, we're looking for growth toward 7176 initially with secondary, if bettered, at 7203 points". We're mentioning this, not 'cos we're 'smug self congratulatory gits' (we are) but for two other important reasons.

Firstly, there's the subject of "FUNDAMENTALS". Regular readers will know we ridicule "Technical's" as a viable market tool. We don't entirely eschew Fundies but always prefer to keep them at arms length. There's no doubt FUNDAMENTALS are important but we are always concerned 'lest they influence our interpretation of calculations. A recent example of how stupid an attitude this can be was our report against SKY's share price. We'd a sneaking suspicion it was about to plummet but even a glance at Interactive's discussion forum would have revealed the company is in takeover talks, thus skewing everything. We generally keep discussion forums at arms length to avoid our thinking being corrupted... Oops.

There's a massive however though. Friday was US "Non Farm Payrolls" Day, an event which USED to foul the UK market a lot but nowadays, not so much. It does still matter and thus, is worth keeping a weather eye on.

We forgot. Totally. All planning at our end was going into a 21st birthday party for one of the girls...

Instead, we wrote our outlook for Friday minus our usual cautionary drivel about "Payrolls Day", basing everything entirely on numbers. Our target was missed by 0.0058% to use the most generous calculation. Had we remembered it was Payrolls Day, we would have added a strong cautionary note but probably balanced it by suggesting US States had only two full days to generate their numbers, a load of them will have thus used estimates, invariably optimistic ones.

Our popular FTSE for FRIDAY column was published, biased entirely from a numbers perspective and turned out to be pretty right on. And didn't include a hysterical warning.

Secondly, and more importantly perhaps, there's the confirmation thing. We only know we've been watching the right trend and using the correct data set when we see "Target Met" appearing. For this reason, rather more importantly than the "Smug Git Award", we regard target levels as critical. They literally are the only confirmation we've been watching the correct trend. Fans of our daily futures freebies will already have noted the reality of "target met" clusters. Generally (but not always) when we receive strong confirmation of a trend - as happened on Friday - it means we're running the right set of numbers and therefore can expect quite a few further results against whatever instrument we're viewing.

Often, this sort of thing gives a few days worth of "Success" Target Met results, then it dwindles to the "cess" Target met, where only our initial target is achieved. Obviously, this is taken as a sign a trend is weakening or changing. Or we're talking rubbish!

School-teacher mode disengaged, what does this week hold?

If the FTSE now betters 7203, there's a pretty good chance it should target 7248 next, maybe even 7275 as a secondary. While neither ambition implies bucket loads of points, the secondary comes with a bigger picture implication as it moves the market into a region where we can mention 7327 points with secondary 7405.

But to again employ our favourite word "however", we're facing a week which starts with a Monday and Mondays can often suck. In fact, around 80% of the time they do when a weekends worth of news & political 'facts' hit the marketplace.

The immediate RED uptrend, probably associated with US politics, is currently at 7106 points. We'd need see the FTSE below such a level to raise an eyebrow. In theory, this risks generating weakness toward  7084 points initially with secondary, if broken, at 6989 points. Perhaps this will signal a coming bonk against the BREXIT uptrend but for now, despite how grotty the latter half of January was, we're inclined toward some optimism.

We've had a few emails asking us to cover some ISA possible shares in the weeks ahead. We shall endeavour to give a few, ranging from "are you daft?" ones through to "boring but probably safe" ones.

FUTURES

Published 02 Feb 2017

FREE FERRARI & FTSI for FRIDAY (NYSE:RACE & FTSE:UKX)  What do you call a short Ferrari? Absolutely no idea but visually it appears RACE is about ready for a short position. We last looked at Ferrari at the start of January (link here), confirming our ambition of 66 and with a day high of 65.2, the price has just about reached that level.

Normal rules, when applied to the movements being experienced, suggest a short position anytime now and wait to see what happens. Stop position needs be just above 67.65 as should the share better such a level, we're showing clear air up toward 75.

Of course, a degree of caution is advised - as always - due to Ferrari now trading in New York at "All Time Highs" but we'd calculated the 66 level as a pretty major point of interest. Experience teaches, these major points of interest will often provoke some stutters in a share price. To be honest, the STOP level could even be wound back to 66.04 if choosing to believe our software.

As for where to bail a short position, the immediate uptrend is currently around 61.5 and given we're not the only folk with a Red crayon, bailing at such a point makes sense. If feeling gullible, holding out for 58 is possible, just not visually safe.

FTSE for FRIDAY

The market has spent most of its time recently doing very little. However, there's been a pretty obvious trend downhill since the middle of January and thankfully, the first two days of February appear to be making an attempt for the market to recover some ground.

As the chart shows, we're perhaps reaching a bit but the last week has been a bit daft, across all the European markets. We've seen constant push downs, followed by the market attempting to climb higher and given the FTSE actually managed to CLOSE the Thursday session above the immediate downtrend, we're crossing fingers and taking an optimistic viewpoint for Friday.

So, here's the rules...

Should the FTSE (we're talking about movements during the working day) now better 7164 points, we're looking for growth toward 7176 initially with secondary, if bettered, at 7203 points. In fact, if the day goes mad, it could even continue toward 7248 points. We're just a tad sceptical about this as the market has failed to produce any exuberant days this year, in fact the last "happy" day on the FTSE was December 7th last year.

If this upward surge triggers - as appears possible - the market would need slither below 7102 points to spoil the party. This could perhaps tighten to 7117 points but we'd acknowledge it's a wide stop. Here's hoping as should 7102 break, we're looking at 7071 initially. With secondary 7048 points. And the BREXIT uptrend is currently 6952 points.

FUTURES

Published 01 Feb 2017

SOUND ENERGY (LSE:SOU)  This lot are living proof, sometimes a turkey can fly. When we last viewed it back in 2015, we'd been able to calculate 37p as a potential high, if it ever actually started to go up.  With almost absurd precision, it bettered its downtrend at the start of July 2016 then soared.

The situation now is fascinating from our perspective. The "Really Big Picture" gives a maximum calculation of 127p and normally we'd rubbish such a result, treating as false. However, by soaring above 100p on the first surge following trend break, it appears we cannot ignore anything about SOUND!

The immediate situation suggests anything near term above 80p should continue toward 94.5p next. Secondary, if bettered, is at a confident looking 106p which takes the price within sniffing distance of the Big Picture 127p. What surprises about this share has been movements since the initial surge to the 100p level. Or normal logic against movements since allows for weakness toward 66p and a bounce, if further strength is planned. But if the price closed below 66p, best guess was a bottom of 53p.

The lowest the share actually closed a session at before bouncing was 67p, implying strength. Coupling this with the complete outperformance since it broke downtrend last July, we're optimistic. Certainly, anything now below 66p (RED) would justify panic, suggesting we've read the tea leaves wrongly.

For now, we like the feel of recent movements and suspect 94.5p will make an appearance next.

FUTURES

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