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30th November 2016

PROVEXIS (LSE:PXS) We often wonder if this share has exhausted the damage inflicted by the historical orchestrated "enhanced expectation" campaign by a group of 3 conmen. Make no mistake, it's a share we're almost afraid of expressing optimism against due to the campaign which saw the share price reach 22p during a hysterical session back in August 2009.

As the chart below highlights, the share price has bettered a downtrend since 2011 and it's one we suspect will prove valid. Essentially, this trend marks the start of the rot which saw the share price gapped (manipulated) downward from 3p and provoked the current state of affairs. Thankfully, the share price has somehow managed better this trend during the last four sessions and is now trading in a region where movement above 1.25 looks capable of 1.69 next with secondary, if beaten, at a longer term 2.7p.

There's a couple of visual details worthy of comment. Firstly, we've painted a pink line at 1.5p. For some reason, this level has provoked hysterics and we'd suspect any future visit to the 1.5p level will be punctuated by selling pressure, due to the volumes of folk Bailing At Break Even, (Babes)

Secondly, there's that BLUE downtrend. Few things scare us more than seeing a share price better a historical trend, then be reversed below. Usually, such a game ends in tears but realistically we'd need see PXS wither below 0.69 before suggesting running shoes. We'd doubt any reverse like this would survive contact with the RED line!

For now, the price is trading in a zone where (gasp) optimism is possible. That traditional market strategy of crossing fingers would probably be a good idea though...

FUTURES

29th November 2016

CHESNARA (LSE:CSN) This made an appearance in the Top 10 discussion topics and it's not hard to see why. Currently, the share price is in the situation where closure above just 351p is liable to prove interesting. As the chart shows, there's a BLUE line at this point, currently the only hindrance toward 364p. Which is a bit lame!

However, the secondary of 416p is rather more interesting. What makes this share worthy of comment is actually illustrated by the dashed Pink line. For some reason, since 2014 the market has seen fit to stifle rises around the 350p level, an aspect of behaviour made extremely plain for the last 12 months. We think a glass ceiling exists at the 350p level and closure above this will coincide with a movement above the immediate downtrend, providing one of the better excuses for a share price to paint some new highs.

With closure above 350p, we should also mention the long term attract is viewed as being 450p.

In terms of danger, there's a RED line currently at 255p but realistically we'd be alarmed with any excuse for movement below 298p, the uptrend since Brexit day. Any nonsense like this would tick the first box of a prophecy which foretells 278p with secondary 260p... And threatening RED!

FUTURES

And finally, a whimsical look at the US DOLLAR / RUBLE relationship

28th November 2016

AMUR MINERALS (LSE:AMC)  The price of this share was recently gapped UP above a trend we didn't believe existed. As the chart shows, it implies the price is now reacting to movements against a downtrend from 45p and this, while vanishingly rare, is generally regarded as a good thing. It brings the implication the price of AMC can be expected to outperform.

Of course, we've a "however".

The share was gapped UP from 7.5p to start its new trend and while recent movements give a visual implication the market intends cover the manipulation gap, the harsh reality is of weakness now below 7.7p signalling coming reversal to an initial 7p with secondary 5.9p. We'd warn that the market is rarely kind hearted, so anyone hoping for a bounce at 7.5p is liable to find themselves walking funny for a while.

Thankfully, such is the reality of this new trend that anything now above 10p is very liable to generate an initial 14.75p with secondary, if bettered, at a longer term 20p. The funny thing is, our software is forced to suggest a long term attraction exists at 42.75p but we rather suspect positive news, positive market conditions, and a Santa rally will be required.

Visually, should the intention prove to be reversal to 6p before a real bounce, hopefully the market takes a couple of weeks to avoid the share being propelled once again below BLUE. Generally a movement such as this would stink and effectively trap the share price. Unless, of course, "they" opt to do it with a spike downward at the open which would be a good thing.

FUTURES

27th November 2016

FTSE for this week & BMR too. (FTSE:UKX & LSE:BMR)  Just because you can doesn't mean you should! In the case of BMR, we'd postulated criteria for reversal to 4.35 and for some reason, the market felt obliged to indulge in a murder. The situation now is of anything below 4.6 pointing at 4.35 next with secondary calculating at 3.85p

Insanity prevails here, 'cos as the RED line shows, BMR needs trade below 3.25 currently to utterly trash its chances of future growth. Unfortunately, this gives the share a movement parameter between 3.25 and 6.9p - essentially a playground for the market - before we dare be certain which longer term direction is planned. We'd guess, due to it constantly outperforming initial upper targets, optimism is possible but one heck of a lot of patience and a supply of underwear may be required! We can hope even movement above BLUE, currently 6.35p, will serve notice of a coming upward surge.

FTSE this week. The market has done everything possible to signal some upward movement. Except, of course, actually move up. In the last two weeks, we've witnessed every upward surge throttled, a state of affairs only mitigated by every downward movement also tending to fizzle.

The situation now is of movement below RED, currently 6774.985 or so, leading to an initial 6731 with secondary, if broken, at 6680. The secondary really bothers us as it takes the market into the realms of "lower lows" with breakage signally a further 200 point droop.

The alternate thankfully comes from the point at which the market closed last week and anything near term above 6852 signals coming growth toward 6888 with secondary now coming in at 6985 points apparently. However, the law of higher highs would start apply fairly quickly in such a scenario as we're looking for force to 7148 as "top" on such a cycle. Of course, it's worth exercising caution at 6903 just because that number keeps causing a problem. Currently, it coincides with BLUE on the chart.

It's Monday. What could go wrong?

FUTURES

24th November 2016

FTSE for FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) The magic number is 6758.978 for the FTSE. As we'd suspected, the uptrend since Brexit day is not actually defined by the drop on the 24th but instead, from the lows of the 16th and 27th June. With surprising clarity, this uptrend continues to be defined by movements against RED on the chart. (circled)

Our reasonable suspicion is this is the Trump effect and the markets are still not decided on what the heck to do.

We've drawn a BLUE line, just because we can but we're not sure it means anything. In theory, if the FTSE were to better 6928 currently, the market would better BLUE and in doing so, tick a pretty major box pointing at 7148 points. As always, there's a "however" as we must examine what can be expected if 6758 breaks. Famine, pestilence, politicians, plague, all threaten, as does a drop to 6542 initially with secondary, if broken, now calculating at a bottom of 6391 points.

It can be assumed we're not taking the drop potentials too seriously and it's due to the exquisite care employed respecting RED. The subliminal message is the market really does not want to drop and, we must admit, the three retail banks really want to go up in price. Market movements this week, while pitiful, suggest the FTSE is approaching a "show & tell" position. Near term trades above 6832 - the high of the 24th, should generate growth to an initial 6862 with secondary at our old friend, 6903 points.

As shown, a visit to 6903 is currently insufficient to break the market above BLUE but does confirm the markets fascination with this price level is simply insane. Or maybe it's just us!

FUTURES

23rd November 2016

VODAFONE (LSE:VOD) has been getting a bit of a hammering recently and we're loath to call it "cheap" despite the share closing the session at 200.875p mid. The share suffers from a RED line and currently it's at 202.504p with the price now closing a session below this uptrend since 2009.

The scenario now exists of weakness below 199p triggering further painful reversals as 194p looks probable but realistically we're looking hard at 180p as a potential bounce point. The problem with this tableau of misery is it takes the price into a region where negative news could easily drop the price to 142p which challenges an uptrend since 1996! Or in plain English, it doesn't look impossible but if VOD were to visit 142p, we'd be looking very hard at its bounce potentials.

If the current drop against VOD is to enact a panic recovery, trades above 208p should prove capable of 212p which, if bettered, will provide the first hint the price has already bottomed. In such an instance, secondary is at 217p and hopefully capable of bettering the immediate downtrend. This would at least allow us to tentatively speculate of 233 and beyond though, in fairness, we'd need to rerun the numbers.

For now, we rather suspect Vodafone wants to connect with 180p or so.

FUTURES

22 November 2016

BMR GROUP (LSE:BMR) We last viewed this a month ago (link here) and an update seems justified. Our rather "teachy" article had illustrated a historical glass ceiling at 7p and speculated on what would happen, should the share price successfully better 7p. Thankfully we were proven correct but it's behaving a bit stupidly since.

The funny thing is, despite relaxation to 6.2p we remain fairly comfortable with its future prospects. The price bettered our initial 7.625 target quite forcefully, eventually making its way up to 8.6p before ingesting lemming juice. As a few of the BMR regulars are aware, we'd answered their emails pointing out weakness toward 6.15p had become possible. The recent bounces from 6.2p are perhaps sufficiently close to our bottom target and therefore, we need look for reasons which will justify another surge uphill.

One small word of warning first. If this manages to close a session below 6.1p, it would scare the pants off us as it ticks the first box for weakness to 4.35p.

However, near term, should the price better an initial 6.9p, we calculate growth (again) to 7.6p with secondary 8.2p.  Neither target is particularly attractive but beating 8.2p would be a big deal and make our longer term 9.1p not only very possible but would also force us to speculate on whether 11p will appear as a "top" on the current price cycle.

FUTURES

21 November 2016

SIRIUS MINERALS (LSE:SXX) We last viewed this a couple of months ago (link here) and speculated a scenario where weakness toward 19.5p was possible. At time of production, the share was trading at 39p and thus, it appeared a silly prospect. Needless to say, the AIM market has obliged!

Currently trading at 21p, it's sufficiently close to our 19.5p and in a region where we'd hope for a bounce if some strength remains. Unfortunately, share prices sometimes almost inset on bonking against trend lines and currently, RED on the chart is a nuisance 19.5p!

This is where things risk getting seriously nasty as, should this share price actually manage to CLOSE below RED, it opens the first chapter in a magical tale called "Fantastic Bottoms and Where to Find Them". Or in plain English, it starts a cycle toward an initial 12.7p with secondary a hopefully trampoline level of 8p. However... at this point in the game, it's probably worth keeping an eye open if any spike downward at the start of trading breaches 19.5p. We'd tend look favourably on such a ploy.

Near term, in the event of the share bettering 22.25p, we're able to calculate an initial expectation of 25p. While in the great scheme of things such a small movement is useless, if 25p is beaten, it sends the first signal of the price actually having experienced a bottom. In such an instance, we're able to calculate a longer term secondary at 31.75p and a need for us to update our projections.

For now, we hope it bounces. Soon.

FUTURES

20 November 2016

FTSE for the week ahead (FTSE:UKX) Judging by the number of emails received, quite a few folk wait for our FTSE for FRIDAY article. Due to circumstances beyond our control, our outlook for Friday was provided only for paying clients. And even then, it was a struggle while experiencing unpleasant reality of "dial up" internet from the 1990's! But normality has resumed, even if the FTSE is looking a bit dodgy.

The chart below has, many would assume, a glaring error. We've chosen to ignore the post-Brexit vote market plunge to 5780 and instead focussed on the "real" market trend since June 16th. Our thinking is fairly simple. If we pretend the post-Brexit vote drop was due entirely to market manipulation by humans and assume the real trend commenced on the 16th - and it would certainly appear movements in the last 10 sessions also believe the "real" uptrend is shown in RED, the immediate situation suggests anything below roughly 6737.636 will suggest the ruling uptrend has failed.

As a result, we can calculate coming weakness toward 6645 points with secondary, if broken, at 6460 points. If triggered, a stop needs to be painfully wide at 6840 points.

However, this sort of period of stutters while the market seduces a trend can often prove interesting, generating a fake drop below RED at the open one day, then with the market experiencing a miracle rise. As we continuously warn, when something is obvious, the market is rarely generous with was come next. Just because the uptrend is threatening to break does not necessarily mean any break will prove real. Obviously - or perhaps not - the danger time is when the FTSE opens in the morning and also, when the DOW opens in the afternoon.

In the event a miracle occurs and somehow the FTSE betters BLUE - currently 6940 - we're looking for growth to an initial 7003 points with secondary, if bettered, at a more meaningful 7140 points.

It looks like we face an interesting week.

RANDOM FUTURES

16 November 2016

Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE:RBS), GOLD, and EURO v USD.  RBS share price continues to emulate the countries football team, promising nothing and delivering less. However, it is showing early signs of covering the gap created by Brexit day price manipulation, as are Lloyds and Barclays. In the case of RBS, we're therefore looking for excuses capable of driving the share above 250p.

Thankfully, price movements are creating a plethora of trends, allowing us to draw lots of coloured lines on the chart in the hope of presenting a possible stutter point in any rising cycle, when a target level conflicts with a trend. The immediate situation for RBS suggests continued growth above 214p should cycle toward 238p next with secondary, if bettered, now at a less likely 265p.

Our reasoning for doubt about the 265p ambition is simple. As is visually clear, the share price WILL experience some stutters around the 250p in any immediate rise. The reason for this is fairly simple. A bunch of folk had 4 opportunities to buy into RBS earlier this year when the share started to rise. They are going to Bail At Break Even (Babe) if RBS again approaches the 250p level, causing some stutters. Experience tends teach that, if RBS does successfully close above the Glass Ceiling level, it will tend experience stronger recovery as the longer term attraction calculates as 363p and - rather amazingly - the prospect of yet another Glass Ceiling.

The small inset shows RBS recent performance in relation to the BLUE downtrend with slight hesitation since movement above. Generally this implies proper movement will take place when the stock market experiences positive days. We'd lean toward panic if the price were now to be opened below 202p as this would return the share back into its historical downtrend and suggest coming weakness to 170p. And if 170p were to break, we get to mention 96p again. Or, 9.6p in honest 2009 currency.

For now, as the inset shows, hope is possible as there's little doubt this is auditioning for a Santa Rally. At least nothing is happening in the world or with politics which could derail a retail bank movement...

RANDOM FUTURES

15 November 2016

BARCLAYS (LSE:BARC) The inset on the chart showing Barclays hesitant movements for the last couple of days is worthy of consideration. This innocent looking BLUE line appears to be deserving of attention when plotting Barclays future price movements.

Currently, the share is supposed to be heading to 220, maybe even 250p but for the last couple of sessions, the price has faltered, often behaving differently from the other two comedians in the retail banking sector. We'd been showing an unlikely trend since 2007 and it's drawn in BLUE on the chart. Currently, BARCLAYS needs actually CLOSE a session above 212.868p to better this downtrend, signalling in the process movement toward our 220 / 250 ambition is probable in the near future.

As usual, we'd advocate caution should the market opt to gap the share price above BLUE anytime now as, if this were to be followed by a gap down below BLUE a few days later, the price would return to a zone with ultimate bottom of 76p. Fairly obviously, in the even of BARC finding an excuse to trade below 122p, it attains a lower low and makes the ridiculous looking 76p very viable.

We suspect this BLUE downtrend will prove critical for Barclays future as, once the share closes above it, we're able to calculate a Long Term influence from 347p.

FUTURES

14 November 2016

LLOYDS PLC (LSE:LLOY)  We've tried pretend the banking sector doesn't interest us this month but, thankfully, Lloyds appears on the verge of becoming interesting. If the share would simply manage to close a session above 61p, near term movement toward 64.5p looks very likely, along with a challenge of the downtrend since 2015.

At this point, quite a strong argument favours anything above 64.5p heading toward 75p and the potential of a glass ceiling (shown in pink) at roughly 73.62p. As the pink line illustrates, there's a fair congregation of highs around this level and our aggregate calculation at 73.62p suggests closure above this point will favour Lloyds with some proper long term potentials. Initially 86p makes sense but realistically 100p is being shown as the ruling long term attraction.

So, only two hurdles ahead for Lloyds. Firstly, it needs above the BLUE downtrend, then it needs close above the PINK glass ceiling. How hard can it be?

If trouble is planned, Lloyds now has a shark in the water below 48.5p. Anything capable of provoking reversal below such a point would be extremely bad as it could easily lose 1/3rd of its value. We're forced to mention this due to the presence of a near term RED uptrend. This currently suggests any weakness below 54.5p risks a visit to 52p initially with secondary, if broken, at 49p, frighteningly close to an uptrend since 2012 (shown with invisible ink).

We're mentioning this, 'cos we obviously must look at both sides of the coin. However, Lloyds has recently been making some positive movement and hopefully we're about to witness an attempt to cover the Brexit manipulation gap at 72p.

RANDOM FUTURES

13 November 2016

FTSE for the coming week. (FTSE: UKX) there are two numbers to worry about this week. Firstly, below 6722 or above 6984. For Friday, we'd proposed a bouncy bottom at 6726 and by 10:20am, the market obliged and hit this level. Unfortunately, it broke 6726 for a few moments by three points which placed a question mark over any bounce.

As the day progressed, our "bottom" of 6726 was challenged and broken twice more with the result we'd not be terribly confident with any further breach. Essentially, the situation now exists of weakness below 6722 opening the door for a sleigh ride down to 6420 eventually. If worst comes to worst, perhaps a bounce around the 6600 level can be hoped as it's clear this has the potential for creating a glass floor in the days ahead.

But as with the Brexit thing, while trading patterns have IN NO WAY been similar, folk with long memories will recall we mentioned the potential for happy days if the DOW JONES stumbled above 18309 (link here - 31st Oct). It closed Friday at 18847, meaning our initial 400 point rise has been bettered and we're to believe a longer term 20525 is now a viable prospect. Surely if the DOW is indeed about to ingest a happy pill, some of this magic will rub off on the UK? There was no doubt the BREXIT vote saw a positive echo from the DOW !

Near term, if the FTSE were just to better 6775 points, we can argue in favour of growth to an initial useless 6806 points. While such an ambition is still miles away from the safe zone above 6984, it will at least imply the UK market has ceased its immediate lemming behaviour. In fairness, we'll only be comfortable that any rise isn't fake when the FTSE betters 6863, our secondary target above 6806 points.

To summarise, we face another interesting week. The US election have left the markets feeling like turbulent water in the wake of a ship and things have not yet settled down for a nice safe Santa Rally... Ho ho ho, hum.

FUTURES

10 November 2016

FTSE for FRIDAY and a FREE Ferrari too. (FTSE:UKX & NYSE:RACE) We've long given up on finding a relationship between Ferrari's share price movements and the teams race performance. In fact, if race performance were an issue, the share would be in GKP territory - stuffed.

However, the approaching Brazilian GP gives us an excuse for another update and visually it appears probable anything now above 55 should signal the next gear change toward 60 as a major point of interest. This would represent the share matching the highs when it was listed in New York just over a year ago and yes, we still expect a bunch of folk will bail at break even causing a stutter in performance. However, our secondary above 60 remains at a very possible 66 and a new all time high, just in time probably for the team to come a dismal 3rd in the Grand Prix constructors championship.

However, we've something more interesting to say about this as the price has tended move in accordance with "share" logic rather than emotive logic. The chart below shows the prior trend as a dashing light blue line. At the end of Sept., the market gapped the price above this trend, signalling they want it higher.

Also shown is a small blue dashing line, illustrating the market gapping the price up in July. Despite a confusion of movements prior, it was clear they wanted it higher.

Finally, we broke with tradition and show a green dashed line. Again, the market gapped it above the obvious trend, wanting it higher.

Movements like this are generally NOT reliable unless being applied to a share in the early stages of finding its feet. Generally, the market will have a pretty good idea of where they expect the price to go and will enforce their will (repeated RED circles).  By the time a share is around 18 months old, this sort of behaviour becomes rather less reliable - in fact, will often be a trap. We're wondering if the recent big gap above the fat blue line is intended to be the last one? Time will tell.

FTSE FOR FRIDAY As always, we are referring to the FTSE itself during trading hours. The weird reversal in fortunes experienced on Thursday has created the situation where weakness below 6799 points at a bottom (hopefully) of 6726 points. If there's going to be any miracles, the index needs better 6949 for any rise to be taken seriously as it permits 7009 points initially with secondary at a less likely 7125 points.

Sharp eyed readers will notice we've not seasoned our outlook with logical justifications. It's 'cos we're relatively clueless during the current muddy post election chaos. If the FTSE betters 7009, there becomes a fairly high probability the market is about to "suffer" a similar post-Brexit surge.

FUTURES

09 November 2016

ROCKHOPPER (LSE:RKH) and some Index comment too. DOW JONES futures were bounced from 17470, comfortably above our 17391 argument but still representing a near 1,000 point drop. FTSE futures on the other hand bounced at 6514, again solidly above our 6475 and oddly, the market itself opened at 6696. What does it all mean?

Firstly, by applying the logic we used for Brexit Vote, it didn't work out too well. Unseen by the public was our report on the S&P as we'd proposed a bottom at 2035 if 2071 broke. It bounced at 2032 which, considering it was a 120 point drop, was pretty close. The funny thing was, we hadn't mapped the S&P in accordance with our Brexit model but instead used "normal" market logic. About the best thing we can guess is the market doesn't entirely hate the idea of President Trump and therefore, some good times are ahead.

Rather infuriatingly, we'd given a movement potential amongst our futures for KAZ. On Tuesday 8th, the potential was triggered yet, on Wednesday 9th, the share price was moved quite deliberately just below our stop loss point at the open. This ensured any clients taking the trade - and our proposed stop loss level - lost money. And of course, immediately afterward the share price moved to our target levels. When we give STOP loss levels, we try and tighten them but as KAZ proved, this approach is fraught with danger, especially when the market has an excuse to play games. It's frustrating as once above 298, KAZ almost had no choice but to head to 310.5p but we'd guess the nice people who manage prices figured this out too, hence the absurd spike to 282 right at the market open. We're going to continue slipping in near term SHARE price potentials in the FUTURES section but shall widen the stop loss levels.

As for ROCKHOPPER, perhaps the penguin with President Trumps hairstyle will finally flourish. It certainly needs a bit of a miracle due to the big picture. (Click here for previous article in March) In theory, absolute bottom on this calculated at 23.5p, an aspiration achieved this week and worse, broken. In the period since, bounces have been half hearted and leave us in no doubt the share price needs actually CLOSE above 39p before we dare regard any growth as genuine. As a result, we need look for scenario capable of propelling the share above such a point.

It's currently trading around 24p and needs better 28p to trigger growth to 32. As this point, it all gets a bit squirmy but we're able to calculate 41.75p as a secondary ambition. Should such a level be achieved, it's all about the closing price as we're demanding above 39p to take movements seriously. The dotted pink line tends suggest the market is also aware of this glass ceiling level and therefore, closure above opens the first door in a long term path toward 89p as a major point of interest.

However, for now, it's stuffed! Every time the price closes below 23.5p, it enters a region where the Big Picture gives targets prefaced with minus signs. We're therefore inclined to take hope from BLUE on the chart as it appears the market regards this downtrend as important. Hence, our hope that 28p makes an appearance anytime now.

FUTURES

08 November 2016

FTSE and DOW  Like many people, we're confused how the US Election campaign managed to reach its conclusion without "Nellie the Elephant" making an appearance in the music charts. Surely the chorus alone would make it a great campaign theme for Trump? Despite the absence of a tune, the US & UK markets concluded the 8th in a position of considerable optimism.

In fact, we're struck by the pre-Brexit-vote similarity as the UK did something very similar on June 23rd, closing the session in a position which suggested growth to 6707 was almost pre-ordained. This illusion was (temporarily) spoiled the next morning, when the nice folk who decide market movements opted to force the FTSE down to 5780...

To deal with the DOW JONES first, it closed the pre-election result day in a position signalling coming growth is expected to an initial 18565 points with secondary, if bettered, now at 18902 points. If we apply the BREXIT model to the US, if the market deems "the wrong person" has won, it could easily opt to open the session down at 17603 points and we'd therefore hope for a bounce. If "they" opt to get below 17603, the next bounce point calculates at 17391.7 points. (or so...) Given this would represent reversal of around 1,000 points, it even makes a weird sort of sense.

Similarly to the DOW, the FTSE closed the day in comfortable territory, suggesting coming growth to 6936 points with secondary, if bettered, at 7136 points. As the chart shows, the secondary matches the highs of September and if achieved, some stutters can be expected.

However, if the market decides they don't like whoever is elected and again applies the BREXIT model, reversal at the open down to 6475 makes a heck of a lot of sense. We'd expect a bounce should such a point make an appearance. And of course, if the market opts to treat the US winner with the same adulation we give "The Organist Entertains, the Jazz show, or Jon Ross" on Radio 2, the FTSE could be slammed down to a bouncy bottom (hopefully) at 6190 points. (Sorry, the two worst Radio 2 programs have been playing while writing this. When was Jamie Cullens Jazz classed as music?)

FUTURES

07 November 2016

SKY PLC (LSE:SKY) We last reviewed SKY back in April (link here) and speculated on the potentials of the price falling to 790p, a point at which a bounce was hoped. Unfortunately (or perhaps not) the share reached our target level and bounced with only half hearted enthusiasm.

The situation now is of the price needing better 955p to be taken seriously as this should generate an initial 1017p with secondary, if bettered, at 1174p. To be blunt, any movement from 955p to 1017p is very liable to be sharp and probably require no stop loss beyond the tightest. As always, we've a massive "however" and it's due to SKY breaking our 790p target, albeit with a drop spike due to BREXIT vote manipulation on the 24th.

A couple of shares which, in the period since the BREXIT morning, have achieved the improbable and gotten below their initial drop targets are suffering some pretty foul price movements. In the case of SKY, our calculation now is of weakness below 790p leading to 692p, maybe even 655p as the next point for which a bounce can be hoped. Unfortunately, due to the inherent weakness present, there's an added complication of negative news able to drive the price down to 510p in a blink.

Unpleasantly, this nonsense is only possible due to whoever made the decision to tumble SKY below 790p on 24th June. While no-one was probably able to actually buy the share with the drop, the movement (actually to 760p) "proved" arithmetically SKY could break an uptrend since 2012 and thus, introduced weakness to trading formula.

FUTURES

06 November 2016

FTSE for the week ahead (FTSE:UKX) & BRENT CRUDE too. The market appeared cursed by the sentence in our outlook for the week. It's actually amazing, the number of times we struggle to produce a readable but concise analysis of what's happening, then glue on a caveat at the end. Invariably, to find the caveat was fulfilled in its entirety.

Our final sentence last Sunday read, " Anything now breaking 6927 allows an initial 6908 with secondary 6851 points. And this is a major problem as the market will be in a region where 6730 presents itself as a major attraction. "

The scenario triggered at 3:36pm on Tuesday 1st and completed at 08:24am on Friday 4th. Nearly 200 points and a stop loss requirement of just 7 points! And it was all on the basis of a throwaway comment against a situation we didn't expect to happen. This is actually quite interesting in an interesting way...

We assiduously insulate ourselves against "fundamentals" lest our thinking becoming influenced. But we're not immune from looking hard at the numbers on screen and forming an opinion of what's coming, then crafting an article to justify the opinion. We don't do this just against the FTSE but literally everything we calculate. And we always give a converse view, generally in the final sentence. This isn't to "cover ourselves", just a realistic approach but the number of occasions where our final scenario - the one we didn't expect - turns out to be the result is quite absurd.

A sneaking realisation of the markets NEVER doing the expected has started to settle in place. Perhaps we should bin the articles and instead adopt the approach taken with futures where we give DOWN & UP scenario against each instrument. It certainly would save time typing but, in fairness, such a method would ensure our recent discovery - a flat line can be a valid trend - would remain undiscovered. It's often only when we write stuff out does the glaringly obvious become obvious!

For now, the FTSE has fallen off a cliff, trading in a zone where 6645 might provide a bounce but realistically, bottom calculates at 6480. Last straw looks like intraday traffic below 6654 points.

The flipside is fairly simple. The pace of descent in the last week has been pretty obvious and results in the situation where the market needs better 6832 currently to signal growth toward 6895 initially with secondary, if bettered, at 6968 points.

Finally, we've noticed there has been some talk of an election in the USA this coming week. If the markets opt to play games similar to the BREXIT vote, in the event the FTSE is forced down to around 6191 points, we would expect a bounce. Similarly, if the DOW JONES is forced down to 17410, a bounce can be hoped.

RANDOM FUTURES

03 November 2016

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) We recently made a pretty useful discovery about trends, something which made our criteria for Higher Highs and Lower Lows make a lot of sense. Interactive Investor will hopefully be publishing the report soon and we're not going to bore you with our Nobel Prize class of logic. (joke)

Let's just say, should the FTSE get below 6765 points, there's a pretty good chance the market will continue to be a bit stuffed!

We started this week with the suggestion 6730 risks being a logical bottom but there's a larger danger making itself known. The problem we have is, should 6765 actually break, the market loses its attraction to the 6903 level and instead, develops an infatuation with 6480 points. This creates the situation of, while achieving 6730 will probably provoke some sort of bounce, it's liable to be short lived as the market shall be trading in Lower Low territory.

Worse, having re-read the last paragraph, we can't keep these numbers straight!

Time to try looking at a chart to try and make sense of this shambles.

First, we have the BLUE downtrend. The FTSE needs better 6875 points to get out of this immediate mess.

Second, we have 6765 and a break below indicates 6730 points (RED) initially with secondary 6645 points.

Third, we have the fly in the Chardonnay and it's maybe a load of tosh. Sometimes market movements seem NOT to form part of a trend. In the case of the FTSE, the movement to 5780 did not have justification from a market perspective and therefore it's possible the trend it formed will be ignored. As a result, there's an uptrend which, at time of writing, is 6590 points and we suspect this (Dashed Red) trend line will provoke a bounce rather than let the market crumble to 6480 points. This trend line, while perhaps stupid, is odd due to it exerting a very real effect on the market since the pre-Brexit low of June 16th.

So there we have it. If Friday gets below 6765, the FTSE apparently risks a miserable trip downward and will perhaps indulge a real bounce at 6590 points or so.

On the basis we're not the only folk with colored crayons, are there any numbers which will suggest - from an immediate perspective - that any rise is genuine? When we break things down to minute by minute analysis, above 6840 is supposed to generate an initial 6857 points. While utterly useless, in the event the initial target is bettered, we're looking for a secondary at 6873 points and a challenge of the ruling downtrend. If this trend is bettered, the signal given is of the market having stopped going down and entering a region where growth to 6903 is again possible.

And if this happens, the distant sound of screaming is just us tearing our hair out.

 FUTURES

02 November 2016

JOHNSTON PRESS (LSE:JPR)  Sometimes, when watching a share, it can be similar to watching the Scottish Football team in action. Our last Big Picture article on JPR (link here : July 2015) was issued with the price trading in the 130's and warned of relaxation coming to 16p. Below such a level and we would be struggling, due to a plethora of minus signs prefacing targets! And as with the Scottish national football team, there proved no point in watching what happened. The price collapsed as we'd forecast...

Similar to the Scots National team, the situation now stinks.

It hit our 16p on July 4th 2016 and the next day the market gapped (manipulated) the price lower. It was clear the smart money didn't value JPR at 16p as it eventually was to half again to 7.8p.

Since such a point, the bounce has been pretty lacklustre. Currently, the situation with the share is it needs better 26.5p before we can risk taking any rise seriously. It's trading at 14p or so and from a near term perspective, anything now below 7.8p suggests 6.5p initially with secondary, if broken, at 1p. Please remember, we're calculating this only on market data since May 2014 as everything before such a point (the bit where the price utterly collapsed) computes with a minus sign. This is obviously a far from comfortable situation.

The ruling Big Picture downtrend is currently around 185.577p, declining by 1.346p per day. Timeframe logic (our favourite joke) suggests that should the share price continue to flutter around below 20p, it will be ready to challenge the downtrend in 127 days. Which, like the share price, is a pretty rubbish logic.

Instead, should the share somehow manage to better 26.5p, growth to an initial 35p would make sense. In the event such a point is bettered, we can present 52p as a reasonable secondary. The surprising thing about the secondary is it implies a challenge of the downtrend since the market trashed the share price in 2014 as the market has just 30 days to enact such a challenge as any delay beyond the start of December will suggest the price moving to a region where optimism is permitted.

In summary, despite it being a newspaper share and capable of inventing a miracle out of thin air, we're nervous and the suggestion for the near future is to panic below 11.5p.

RANDOM FUTURES

01 November 2016

Fastjet (LSE:FJET) We were probably asking for trouble when we covered FLYB as a bunch of folk asked for an update against FastJet. We last viewed this is 2015 (link here) and movements since give concern. As we said, if the 'B' in FlyB stands for Brick, goodness knows what the 'F' in FJET stands for...

To explain the headline, we're showing a  Big Picture drop target at -19p, obviously utterly impossible, but from our perspective it highlights this as being somewhat dangerous. Instead of applying Big Picture logic, we're forced to zoom in and apply near term calculations in the hope of finding whatever cunning plan the market has in mind.

There's a "however" thankfully. When historical prices are adjusted to account for the 100:1 split in 2015, there's a pretty obvious downtrend the share price has been respecting and we've shown it in BLUE on the chart below. This trend line suggests the share price need only better 23p to nonsense the logic which is full of minus signs. When we run the numbers since the price was forced down (circled) in March of this year, it appears anything now below 19p can expect to visit an initial 13.5p with secondary calculating as a hard landing at 4p.

The alternate is to examine what we can hope for if the price manages to actually CLOSE (important word there) above the ruling BLUE downtrend. If it were to make it above BLUE, the first thing of importance would be the subliminal message the price has stopped going down. This alone could hopefully power an initial miracle surge toward 28.75p, perhaps even 35p if any rise were powered by positive news. The important thing for the longer term is once above BLUE, we can calculate the potential of 58p exerting an influence, should any seriously positive motive for growth appear.

For now though, it's stuffed and the best we dare hope is a bounce at 13.5p. But of course, it's Guy Fawkes week, so maybe fireworks will happen...

FUTURES

31st October 2016

FLYBE Group (LSE:FLYB) We often suspect, with some justification, the 'B' in FLYB stands for Brick. We last commented against this 18 months ago. (link here) By following a route similar to a politician chasing an expense receipt in a breeze, it finally found its way to our 39p bottom, courtesy of the day the Brexit vote was announced. Worse, the 39p thing was slightly broken, thereby opening the door for more misery.

Movements since Brexit day have tended suggest, perhaps unfairly, there is this fabled nonsense called "support" at 34.5p. We rather suspect anything near term below 36p will find its way to 30p, thus dashing the concept of support. Hopefully 30p proves capable of generating a bounce 'cos if it doesn't, the new "ultimate bottom" is at 16.5p.

Unfortunately, this isn't the end of the story. If you've read our original article, we referred to 39p as "ultimate bottom" as, from a Big Picture perspective, any targets we generate below such a point all are prefaced with minus signs. As a result, we've little choice but to regard this as extremely dangerous as we're only working with data since the market forced a new downtrend (circled) at the start of October this year.

As always, there's a 'however' and in the case of FLYB, it's the downtrend (BLUE) since 2011 which is currently around 49.783p and decreasing by 0.138p per day. If the share can somehow soar above this trend, everything changes from our perspective as it escapes a trading zone littered with minus signs and instead, enters an area where some movement toward an initial 55p looks viable with secondary 68p and perhaps beyond.

In summary, we suspect it will end up bouncing from 30p. Fingers crossed time.

FUTURES

Finally, we are now accepting adverts at www.trendsandtargets.com and will not moan if anyone explores them. We get paid by click! So far, we have not seen anything objectionable and it appears Google actually do have a clue when directing traffic.

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