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Published 29/06/17 

FTSE for FRIDAY & SKY too (FTSE:UKX & LSE:SKY) Rather than a line in the sand, the chart below has a line in the SKY. Whatever games being played with SKY share price look quite amazing and there can be little doubt anything above BLUE - currently 1000p - should bring good times.   However...

While above 1000p remains pointing at 1174p, despite a good day, SKY remains firmly ensconced below BLUE and few things worry us more than something which should be going up (to 1174) but isn't as there's always a risk of gravity becoming involved. Our inclination is to treat the rise on the 29th as a probable fake and continue anticipate weakness below 950 driving the price down to 919 initially, perhaps even 872p. And worse, once something like this happens, our big picture longer term 668p is liable to make its presence felt.

But for now, it's perhaps worth keeping an eye on that BLUE line - if only because of their brilliant "Despicable Me3" self promotion advert!

FTSE FOR FRIDAY  We've two howling arguments which demand the FTSE fall to 7310 near term and visually there's little doubt anything below 7341 should indeed find its way to target. If triggered, the tightest stop looks like 7401 which is a bit rubbish. Real problems arise should 7310 fail as the next potential comes in at 7235 points.

Our inclination is to distrust any rise - despite the behaviour of FTSE FUTURES on Thursday evening - unless the FTSE manages to better 7390 as oomph toward 7420 is expected initially. Secondary, should 7420 be bettered, calculates at 7457 points. If triggered, stop can be placed at 7345 points at tightest.

FUTURES

Published 28/06/17 

Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE:RBS)  Quite a lot of stuff is on the brink of doing stuff. RBS managed close the 28th May hinting at a coming rise, GOLD need only better 1259 to suggest some near term action, and BRENT above 48 will tend make short positions dodgy. Of the three, it's almost absurd with RBS showing as attractive - remember, it's a UK Retail Bank and always poised to let people down.

Of course, perhaps RBS are being kept busy conjuring up billions for Northern Ireland from a magic money tree only banks can harvest?

To dispense with the good news first, always wise with a bank, it appears near term movement on RBS above 254p should lead to 260 initially but realistically it seems 270p is computing as a viable secondary. If triggered, the tightest stop appears to be 244p. Though if we draw RED lines, it seems 242p would make more sense.

Frustratingly, the Big Picture tells a better story as apparently we should be regarding RBS as now heading to 370p, needing below 222p (the dashed RED line) to cancel the prospect. Unfortunately the immediate price cycle proposes 270p, once again challenging the highs earlier this year but not bettering them. This results in the situation where we'll not be surprised if the 270p level presents another hindrance to growth.

Regular readers will be aware we regard the retail banks with considerable distain, expecting the worst and rarely disappointed.

What, therefore, are our expectations should RBS share price slime below 244p? Our initial droop expectation comes in at 239p with secondary calculating at 228p. Circled on the chart, a recent manipulation gap at 240p and while our initial drop expectation covers the gap, it also breaks the trend making 228p painfully viable. It also will create the visual impression of a share trapped between 228 and 270p.

FUTURES

Published 27/06/17 

LLOYDS BANKS (LSE:LLOY) We're starting to suspect the only lasting legacy from the (current) UK Prime Minister will prove to be groupings of red circles on charts! A variety of shares had exuberantly broken their near term downtrends, finally heading upwards. We've circled Lloyds positive movement. Now, it's not heading up and the market seems a bit cheesed off.

To get the good news out of the way first, Lloyds has ticked all the boxes for 77p on the current cycle, probably even 97p as a proper level at which some volatility makes sense. Utterly cancelling this prospect will require the price to trade below RED, currently around 60.457p. So, there's the stop loss for the insanely brave or gullible.

What happens if the share price value slithers below 60.4p?

We're now projecting 56p initially, perhaps even 51p if broken. Visually, this effectively "double bottoms" the share price against the lows of 2016 and would give some hope for a bounce but by breaking below 60.4, all our calculations for the future on the current price cycle become tosh.

That's about it. The circled area silently highlights the damage inflicted on the market by our "STRONG AND STABLE" leaders' effort to place politics before the good of markets and the economy. And more importantly, this nonsense risks undoing rather a lot of work at our end... Which, just perhaps, explains the angry tone of this report.

FUTURES - wish they were all like this!

Published 26/06/17 

HORNBY (LSE:HRN) The weekend just gone offered several delights - F1, Glastonbury, GP powerboat race locally, Mrs T&T's 50th. Which was why sanity required questioned on Sunday morning as a friend insisted on unveiling his latest model railway purchases, a horde discovered at a car boot sale several hours earlier. It can be difficult to enthuse about Thomas the Tank Engine & Hornby miniatures at 10am on a Sunday hangover.

However, it provided inspiration for an update against Hornby share price as it appears there's a demand for this stuff outwith the junk at car boot sales. The surprising element of their price movements is we'd expected the share to reach an absolute bottom of 5.75p following their stuffing (circled) in 2016 but the market seems disagree as the lowest achieved has been 19p. Perhaps it signals some inherent strength?

Currently trading around the 33p level, the visuals suggest the price needs better 65p to utterly cancel the prospect of 5.75p. On the chart below, the RED line dates back to 2008 and is liable to prove a fairly solid impediment to any rise. When we view what's happened since the price was forced down in Feb 2016, the share has essentially flatlined with little burps above and below 32p. We'd be fascinated should it ever find an excuse to better 40p as it appears an attempt near the BLUE downtrend - currently 65p - will prove viable. Only with closure above BLUE dare we countenance the prospect of 96p in the future.

If trouble is planned, early warning looks like traffic below 28p allowing for 17p initially with secondary 5.75p

FUTURES

Published 25/06/17 

FTSE THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX) As we rush headlong toward the mental fog which usually signifies July & August, the FTSE appeared take a deep breath in preparation for its summer hiatus. Or in other words, it feels like the market is about to experience some relaxation unless somehow it manages to better 7551 points.

On Friday, we'd given what proved a rather clever prediction if the market moved below 7417 points. Our initial proposal of weakness to 7396 was met pretty accurately with the day bottoming at 7396.75 points. The crucial suggestion from this piece of self aggrandising is that we're watching the correct trend - always something of a relief.

Now, the situation if the FTSE shuffles below 7396 is a calculation of 7346 perhaps being capable of generating some sort of bounce but realistically, when we take a hard look at where the day closed, realistically we should expect 7262 points to make an appearance. The FTSE closed Friday 23rd May at 7431 points, so we're now calculating a drop of 170 points being probable fairly soon.

To utterly nonsense this, above 7551 is required.

If wanting to be brave, we've an emerging theory which demands the FTSE need only better 7494 points to "prove" our 7396 was bottom as this allegedly will provoke near term growth to 7536 points. If such a miracle we to occur later in the week, the market would beat the immediate BLUE downtrend and enter a zone with 7680 looking filled with self importance.

Our preference is to judge a market by the point at which it closes a session. This being the case, Friday 23rd May created a scenario where weakness to 7262 is expected.

FUTURES

Published 22/06/17 

FTSE FOR FRIDAY & GOLD too (FTSE:UKX & COMEX:GC) During June, quite a few shares across various sectors broke upward through their long term downtrend. Prices in the period since have behaved like the UK Prime Minister faced with a member of the public, doing the unthinkable, slithering below the trend and out of sight. When we view GOLD , BRENT, even FOREX prices, this phenomena against major trends is repeated.

What does this mean?

Generally, when a major downtrend is bettered by a share, then the price forced below again, it bodes really badly for the future. If you stop and think about it, something quashed optimism, yet again placing a price in a nervous region where anything negative will stuff a price royally. And generally very fast. It's fairly clear the markets are pretty nervous and it becomes painfully probable anything stupid by the Govt is liable to provoke real trouble. As one political comedian on telly said, if the UK Govt can't negotiate with some Northern Ireland politicians, what hope do we have when they challenge 27 European countries. This trend reversal, seen against GOLD, BRENT, FOREX, and many shares underlines an obvious concern as to the negotiators competence.

Our suspicion is this shall prove a pity, we're tending regard Brexit as the economic equivalent of giving everything a good shake up to get the future moving.

As promised, we've looked at GOLD and even drawn a small polite circle around the trend break which was reversed. It has created the scenario where weakness below 1242 risks a trip to 1200, maybe even 1135 if someone has said something really silly. If triggered, the stop is quite wide at 1285 as we'd require the stuff to recover above the prior trend to nonsense the meltdown potentials.

FTSE FOR FRIDAY  It 'feels' like the market bettering 7450 shall prove fairly important as it permits movement to an initial 7467 points with secondary, if bettered, at 7525 points. We're a touch nervous about the secondary due to the plethora of misery currently infecting the marketplace, along with the unpleasant nature of Fridays recently - it used to be a confident up day. If the movement triggers, it appears a stop can be fairly tight at 7417 but realistically we'd prefer placing it below the low of this week - 7398 points.

What happens if 7417 breaks?

Famine, pestilence, politicians... Or more probable, weakness to 7396 initially with secondary, if broken, down at 7380 points. If triggered, apparently a stop can be really quite tight at 7434 points.

Good luck and have a good weekend.

FUTURES

Published 21/06/17 

BARCLAYS (LSE:BARC) Following our grumble last month about Barclays ridiculous share price shuffle, it appears our maxim, "if it ain't goin' up, it's goin' down" has again proven correct. This piece of silliness, applied when a share has ticked all boxes for rise ( but doesn't ), increasingly seems one of the more valuable lessons about trend theory. It isn't the trend which is important but how a price reacts to it.

The immediate situation with Barclays is fairly simple. Movement in 2017 tells us we dare not trust any rise until such time the share price betters 253.5p. In such a scenario, we'd be justified in feeling comfortable some real movement is coming. Until then, we're left with little choice but try and identify where a bottom shall appear on the current price cycle. When we review dance steps during June, the suggestion now is of weakness below 199 provoking 196, maybe even 193p. While all these numbers are in the same zone, there's a fairly massive problem should the price devalue below 193p as the tea leaves spell out 170p as the next point with bounce potential.

In some ways, this is a fairly useful logic given it permits a long position in the 190's with a stop emplaced just below 193 if attempting cherry pick a bounce. Absurdly tho', our worry about 193p actually proving to be a bottom is shown with the RED circle. The price suffered a manipulation gap at 193p.

The next time the market reverses a share to bounce precisely at the point of manipulation will be - probably - the first time. While a bunch of folk will doubtless "jump in" thinking the gap is covered and Barclays will limbo no lower, we're showing 23p worth of clear air between 193 and 170p.

Tending favor the 170p level as being endowed with trampoline juice was the cluster of moves during Aug / Sep 2016. It's amazing how often these 'sticky points' in a price' movement table tend prove fascinating for share prices.

It'd prove daft to ignore this shambles of proposals taking Barclays share price pretty firmly below the immediate uptrend. Additionally, we suspect it'd prove an error to focus on the "star" manipulation gap at 152p as we've a really major problem should 170p break. The "absolutely must bounce" point south of such calculates at 118p. This number is obviously a load of tosh - aside from the obvious low of 2016 already being present on this naughty step.

Of course, the foregoing is an exercise if trying to find logic for this share to actually bounce but it feels we're providing negative Lasagne. Layer upon layer of bad stuff.

An attempt to escape the immediate downtrend looks fairly easy to spot.

Barclays need only better BLUE, currently 210p, to greatly reduce our justification for grief as it feels like any bounce bettering this level should continue to 220p initially. Secondary comes in at 240p if the prior price is bettered. Visually this isn't great as it 'just' promises a stutter when a rise matches the prior highs on the chart. This is why our 253.5 criteria is so utterly crucial for the longer term future. Only if above dare we believe Barclays is getting high.

FUTURES

Published 20/06/17 

SKY PLC (LSE:SKY)  We decided give it six months before binning our SKY subscription but the phone call has now been made, due to the change in viewing habits provoked by the Amazon Firestick. As it's currently legal to watch "content" via Kodi (apparently only illegal if you don't install the add-on yourself or actually record programs!) we cannot help wonder how many folk are leaving Sky.

Their share price isn't enjoying the happiest trajectory and recent movements tend hint at the market expecting something bad around the corner - perhaps they are about to take over the "Big Brother" or "I'm a Nonentity" franchises... For now, we're not terribly comfortable with price movements as it needs actually CLOSE above 1008p to escape the current threat of weakness to 919p initially with secondary, if broken, at 872p. The long term uptrend is currently at 788p and shown in RED. Anything capable of actually breaking such a point brings 668p to the table.

Of course, there's a "however" despite our concerns over recent price moves. During 2017 the share price has effectively flatlined and it's not too much to ask for moves above 1008 and relative sanity. Such a scenario allows 1095 initially with secondary, if bettered, at a longer term 1175p.

Unfortunately, for now we've little choice but to regard it as heading to 872p. Once again, Jeremy Clarkson has a lot to answer for!

FUTURES

Published 19/06/17 

LAURA ASHLEY & THE EURO (LSE:ALY & GBPEUR) Our last review of Ashley (link here) suggested 9p as an "ultimate bottom", one of these things where often a share shall experience a proper bounce as we cannot calculate below. Of course, sometimes this attitude can go horribly wrong with a "flushing toilet" sound effect.

We're not going to dwell on the prospects below 9p as prefacing drop targets with minus signs tends be a little silly.

Instead, the prospects if the price now betters 12.5p, then we'll look for coming growth toward 13.5p - lets face it, useless - but secondary, if 13.5p bettered calculates at a longer term 17p. This is where it starts to become slightly interesting as it tends suggest a challenge against BLUE, the ruling downtrend since 2015. In the (unfortunately unlikely currently) event of the share actually closing above this BLUE line, we'll need revisit and brew another set of tea leaves.

GBPEUR We recently started covering a Forex pair (the UK Pound v The US Dollar) and already we're starting experience reservations as we tend regard Forex as rigged against private traders unless they're blessed with pockets bigger than Mrs May's ability to misjudge stuff. We were far from impressed with the GBPUSD pairing making a fake movement upward prior to a drop, this being the nonsense we constantly warn against. With GBPEUR, the current situation feels like the pairing is about to relax toward 1.10 next, perhaps even 1.07 if the wrong politician says the wrong thing in the wrong place. To shatter this scenario, the relationship needs strengthen above 1.18.

In plain English, if intending hedge against an expensive holiday in Europe, it'd probably make some sense to exchange some chocolate UK coins for the European variety now just in case it all goes wrong suddenly.

Of course, the bigger problem remains of parity looking viable unless some miracle gets this group above 1.18 and of course, there's always the RED line from 2008 currently at 1.094 which will doubtless be used to enable a fake near term bounce if attacked.

There's a funny fly in the ointment, one which frankly puzzles and it's shown in BLUE. Basically, this downtrend appears to be valid, something we'd really not expected given the pairings prior behaviour. Visually, there appears little doubt the market thinks it important and this often can prove useful. If this BLUE line breaks, currently 1.124, then a drop to 1.1 is liable to be rather sharp and frankly we'd not be aghast if any drop immediately challenged RED.

FUTURES

Published 18/06/17 

FTSE FOR THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX) At time of writing on Sunday evening, FTSE futures are tending suggest some optimism is possible near term.  We're a little concerned as the levels of optimism are frankly not terribly convincing. While the DOW JONES has a heck of an argument favouring 21630 as the next major stuttery level, the FTSE feels like it shall be challenged to better 7575 points.

From where the market closed, the argument is of movement now above 7480 leading to 7528 points initially with secondary, if bettered, at 7575 points. The immediate market downtrend is currently loitering with intent at 7530 points, so we'll not be surprised to see this used as an excuse for some reversal. Unfortunately, the plot thickens.

As FUTURES - at time of writing - are flirting with the 7500 level, there's a quite strong potential of the FTSE itself being opened up to match futures. Unfortunately this sort of nonsense, especially on a Monday, will tend suggest any opening surge is followed by some reversals, potentially to around the 7420 point. This, effectively, will tend ensure the market spends a few days marching on the spot. Our usual rule of thumb, if an opening spike is NOT bettered within 90 minutes then expect reversal, remains valid though it'd be churlish to ignore a couple of recent occasions when this has been ignored.

But if it all intends go wrong, below 7400 looks capable of some misery, potentially down to 7300 as the week continues. Our suspicion is, in the absence of our glorious government doing something stupid (again) we shall experience a fairly flat week with the market flapping around between the 7575 level and down the just above 7400 points.

FUTURES

Published 15/06/17

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) It's ridiculous, this habit of getting up during the night for a loo run and finding oneself turning on a TV to check if more bad news has broken. In honesty, the TV ON thing wasn't new but it was to glance at the Asian stock markets. Quite odd, 4am and Mrs T&T wakes up, asks absently how Australia's doing and I've not checked. What does this have to do with markets? For a change, absolutely nothing, just a casual observation of a phenomena almost forgotten since the après 9/11. Dread.

The childhood fascination with airplanes in the sky, gazing up at each jet was replaced - when they started flying again - with a worried glance. The current combination of terrorism and un-natural disaster is not nice.

We've cried havoc and unleashed the dogs of FOREX by allowing (perhaps temporarily) GBPUSD back into our Futures basket. Generally, we avoid Forex like the plague simply because this area too often appears rigged against the private trader. It's been over a year so we'll give it another try in case integrity has entered the frame. A fairly easy was to tell shall be if the market bounces at 1.253, the current drop target on the immediate cycle. If it does, perhaps to 1.27, we'll grudgingly agree GBPUSD is making sense. And if 1.253 breaks, we'll talk about 1.200 further down the road. At present, the pairing needs better 1.29 to escape this doom.

As for the FTSE FOR FRIDAY, it never ceased to surprise our twice weekly FTSE homily always creates a considerable spike in readership numbers. While we're aware our track record doesn't stink, as always please remember it's the FTSE itself we're talking about and NOT before and after hours futures. Our Thursday (clients only) lunchtime trading scenario was quite unusual. The market was at 7413 points, around 11.30am and we proposed a LONG position if it declined to 7375, giving a tight stop at 7360.

It was quite odd - the prospect of a drop from 7413 to 7375 looked sane but we had not proposed a SHORT. Instead, it was one of these 'perfect moment' trades where if the 7375 thing happened, it almost had to bounce. Thus far, FTSE Futures have reached 7430, worrying below our bounce target of 7460 and looking now like a hateful "overnight hold" trade. Of course, sometimes these "perfect moments" fall apart on us. This week, Hurricane LSE:HUR was supposed to bounce by 40p.  It didn't.

Near term, if the FTSE makes it above 7425, movement to an initial 7432 makes a sort of useless sense. Secondary, if bettered, comes in at 7450 points - wprryingly short of Thursdays argument which favoured 7460 as a sensible bounce target. If triggered, the movement would need slip below 7390 - the immediate uptrend - to suggest the calculation is tosh.

However, before we'd dare suspect any drop movement to exhibit serious misery, now below 7355 would bother us as the index enters a phase toward 7300 points, maybe even 7180 if some dreadful news breaks. Unfortunately the closest stop level has to be visually guessed at 7425 points.

FUTURES

Published 14/06/17 

SERCO GROUP (LSE:SRP) With both grand-daughters "enjoying" their obligatory bout of childhood Chicken Pox, it was easy to find inspiration for Serco due to our habit of circling manipulation drops with red circles. Perhaps that's why Serco Group have been referred to as "that poxy company" and nothing to do with their apparent reputation...

Their share price has been pretty uninspiring for a while but apparently anything now bettering 136p should enter a growth cycle to an initial 160p with secondary, if bettered, at a longer term 191p. What's surprising about each these target levels is neither completely covers its matching historical gap but instead falters about half-way up. As a result, our inclination is to distrust this upward potential, at least until we see the share price actually close above 150p - the level of prior highs.

For now, the price appears playing a game of chicken with the RED uptrend since 2016 and below 113p would justify quite a bit of concern as this seems able to trigger weakness toward an initial 107p. Secondary, if such a point breaks, comes in at around 97p and should prove capable of generating some sort of bounce. We'd advocate extreme caution if 97p breaks as it becomes possible the price shall challenge the prior lows around the 80p mark. What's worse, from our perspective, is if anything were to allow the share to close below the 80's we become unable to comfortably calculate any future bottom without prefacing it with a minus sign.

FUTURES

Published 13/06/17 

A good giggle is often aligned with "don't tell anyone!". Watching my wife stride up to a Porsche Cayenne and jump in the empty passenger seat certainly ticked all the right laughter boxes. We'd parked in a disabled bay while she collected Chinese takeaways - something I hate doing. Seeing a new space appear literally outside the restaurant, I moved the car. Then watched as she walked straight to the Porsche now in our old parking place. In her defence, our bronze Mitsibushi SUV is the same colour as the Cayenne; she could explain her error away to the bemused driver. Until she remembered we'd taken "the dogs car", a blue scruffy old Clio. Perhaps Mrs T May felt just as silly as my wife.

This "giggle" came to mind when preparing this report against various indices. Our freeze-frame comment regarding FTSE performance when compared against the DAX needed some expansion*** with the UK AIM market producing a totally wild set of results. Essentially, for 2017 (so far) the AIM market has been the place to be, certainly when compared against the usual markets we comment against. Virtually every set of results suggests the UK AIM as being the one with most integrity - something of a surprise as it's usually a bit crap, if we're polite. We've never missed the opportunity to deride the AIM but there can be no doubt it has outperformed itself despite quite a few shares leaving investors "walking funny".

The chart below displays the current (closing prices as per the 13th June) performance of a basket of markets since they opened for trade in January. The AIM is up 14.9%, the FTSE just 4.6%. Of the rest of the majors, the DAX is the best performer at 9.7% up since the open of 2017. We're tending to suspect the DAX will face some fairly big stutters should it ever achieve 13013 points.

The view below is of % Gains & Losses since 2017 started. Once again, the UK AIM is the absolute champion, literally experiencing NO LOSS in performance since the market opened in January. Conversely, the Japan NK225 has, despite being currently 3.1% up since the open, experienced greater volatility downward than upward. We've a sneaking suspicion this will prove a touch dangerous as reversal to a bottom (and a bounce) at 18880 points is on the edge of making sense. This particular index is currently around 19890 points, so we're effectively ruminating about a 1,000 point drop potential. Perhaps they intend hire Mrs May as an advisor, once she completes her ritual UK 'exit'...

This thing about Gains & Losses is something we tend find valuable when mapping share price movements as it often gives a glimpse of underlying pressures. Unfortunately, in the case of the AIM, were it not for some historical numbers, we'd be rather nervous about its "Strong and Stable" performance in 2017. Too often, a characteristic of things which "go straight up" is their tendency to "go straight down" afterward. Thankfully, in the case of the AIM, when we expand beyond 2017 we find it's had more volatility than a politicians integrity, resulting in the situation of any correction probably not being too painful.

Finally, we've got "Volatility 2017". This is essentially the difference between the years Highs & Lows, intended to highlight those markets where we can expect share prices to exhibit some decent swings. The Australian ASX looks like it comes out poorly in this chart whereas the AIM once again towers above everything else. There's something a bit odd about Australia (no surprise then) as last time we looked at it, we'd proposed a target high - one of these points at which volatility is expected of 6002 points. In May 2017, this index achieved 5957 and it appears this proved sufficiently close to our upper target, provoking some stutters. Currently trading at around 5772 points, if it wanders below 5649 it enters a cycle to 5535 points, maybe even 5500 where our rule book demands it must bounce.

***Small Print: Last week we ridiculed the FTSE's 5.5% gain against the DAX's stellar 25% performance. Our numbers, as usual, were bang on. Unfortunately our grasp of timeframes was stupid as we've mapped the FTSE since start of 2017 and the DAX since the start of 2016.

Sorry about that.

Had we engaged a brain cell, the correct difference was FTSE +20%, DAX +25%.

FUTURES

Published 12/06/17 

GULF KEYSTONE (LSE:GKP) Firstly, thanks to the (many) folk who picked up us describing a FTSE movement of 105 points as a useless trade. We like to slip this sort of thing in to check people are paying attention. In reality, we should have written 7540 rather than 7450 as the trigger point. Oops. At least we didn't call a General Election when we really meant to call for a takeaway!

As for GKP, the misery continues with an added frisson of another kicking too.

The share price needs trade above BLUE, currently around 119.403p, to signal the immediate downtrend has eased and the price entering a phase toward an initial 125p with secondary, if bettered, at a more useful longer term 135p. The problem we have at the 135p level is the pretend glass ceiling formed just above the 130p point this year.  It tends suggest closure above 130p shall prove crucial in any future climb to 158p, rather annoyingly challenging the prior high.

That's about the end of any positive spin as trades now below 108p virtually scream of coming reversal toward 100p initially and hopefully some sort of bounce. While there are a couple of residual arguments telling the price MUST bounce in the upper 90's, our ruling logic now points out the danger of closure below 100p provoking an ultimate bottom at 72p.

To summarise, we suspect this shall bounce at 100p, hopefully just above, as the threat of 72p comes with the unpleasant detail we cannot calculate anything below.

FUTURES

Published 11/06/17

FTSE FOR THE WEEK (FTSE:UKX) Understandably, the UK market is proving a little volatile currently. On Friday, the index had signalled pretty firmly it intended to droop, this notion lasting until it became clear we're to be governed by an amalgamation of clowns. Unsurprisingly, the jokers at the FTSE took this as good tidings, presumably because another general election being called immediately would be a bad thing. Stuck in the middle, between the Clowns and Jokers are of course; the punters...

The immediate situation for the FTSE is of growth above 7540 bringing 7555 points, a fairly useless trade but the important detail comes if the index manages to trade above 7555 points as it gives the subliminal suggestion of bottom being "in" and future growth 7595 initially. If triggered, the index needs slop below 7492 to escape the immediate uptrend which calculates with 7686 as a pretty major point of interest. In fact, if we're fussy, below 7462 will tend trash the upward potentials completely rather than just delay them.

What happens if 7462 breaks?

Initially, we're looking at reversal toward an initial 7431 points. Secondary comes in at 7320 points. If triggered, stop can be at 7492 and this gives a fairly tight stop for such a large droop potential.

We're actually pretty far from happy with recent FTSE movements - they do not appear designed to confuse or conceal but instead indicate a market which is pretty fragile. The defensive movement upward on the FTSE in the minutes following the open on Friday would normally be regarded with the potential to fuel a serious drop. The "however" came with moves during the day session as news of a coalition broke, substantially lessening the threat of an immediate drop. But similar to the market, we're not entirely convinced, hence proposing a pretty absurd bandwidth between 7462 and 7555 before we dare believe moves to be genuine.

Unfortunately, from an immediate perspective, we're aware this is as useful as a chocolate fireguard.

FUTURES

Published 8/06/17 

THE DOW JONES (DOWi:DJI) and THE DAX (DBI:DAX) The DOW JONES is now proving relatively interesting as the immediate cycle now shows a Big Picture top at 21329. This is a point at which we'd normally anticipate some volatility but in the last month, there's been early warning the market "may" attempt even higher. It results in the situation where anything now above 21329 points at 21600 points.   If triggered, the ideal stop is slightly insane at 20700 points but realistically you could probably get away with 20975. Which is still slightly insane.

Unfortunately, if the DOW intends any near term dramatics, very little gives the prospect for the 21000 level breaking. Though, if the index manages below 21130 any time soon then raised eyebrows are justified as an important drop box gets ticked. At time of writing it's at 21167 points.

THE DAX Currently trading at 12,713, this index needs fall below 11676 to shatter our current belief it intends continued growth to 14,100 points. Similar to the FTSE, this index has achieved Higher Highs this year but unlike the FTSE, every reach higher has tended use some strength as opposed to the FTSE's generally wimpish hiccups upward.

If the DAX somehow betters 14,100 - a point at which some volatility seems essential - it shall be viewed as entering a longer term cycle to 16,000 points. This year, the DAX has achieved growth of 25% which we find quite impressive. On the other hand, the FTSE has achieved growth of 5.5% which is shocking in comparison. On the chart below, the FTSE is shown in Green. (Or in plain English, "strong and stable my a**e")

FUTURES

Published 7/06/17 

THE ELECTION & THE FTSE (FTSE:UKX) Having spent the afternoon fitting Snow Wheels to a lawnmower, it's with some surprise we note a plethora of emails expecting us to know what's coming next on the market. Kidding aside, the weight of expectation is quite overwhelming given our prior success with calculations during previous UK political shenanigans. (More on the snow wheels later)

As the FTSE closed on Wednesday, we panicked a little due to the market slithering below 7478 points. This was quite a big deal, opening the door to 7368 points next, maybe even 7270 if everything goes wrong. A couple of things worth bearing in mind if expecting us to replicate our success prior to the Brexit vote.

Firstly, the underlying uptrend currently is to around 8,000 points. We've not been making much noise about this but it's certainly worth remembering any reversal capable of hitting RED, the post Brexit Vote uptrend is liable to bounce quite convincingly. As a result, if the wrong (or right) dweller in troughs is elected and the market opts to celebrate with a sharp reversal at the open on Friday, opening below 7368 effectively allows a further 100 point leak downward before a bounce is hoped. Surprisingly, the exact level of RED currently is 7280.786 points, so perhaps our calculation of 7270 is liable to be out by a few points. Which would be unusual if a Big Picture reversal is enacted.

Secondly, the market is trading in a period of Higher Highs and this was NOT the case at the time of the Brexit vote.  The current situation on the FTSE had the market attempting to reach a near term 7686 but the index has so far refused to better 7600 points. We smell a bit of rodent with Wednesdays reversal and shall pay close attention should the index better 7530 on Thursday as there's a pretty good chance the drop to 7478 will prove to be fakery. Given it came with an implosion on the price of BRENT CRUDE, perhaps we're being far too cynical.

Long story short, if the FTSE shows anywhere around 7270 on Friday morning, there's a pretty good reason to go long and wait. Who knows, maybe the 8,000 level will prove accurate!

As for Snow Wheels on a Lawnmower, long term readers will remember our Benny Hill moment with a runaway self propelled beast. That particular nightmare is apparently now trying for Formula One success, rebadged as McLaren... But the replacement mower has been struggling with a gentle slope and if the grass damp, it sideslips. A memory of a Norwegian trick, placing studs in tyres, inspired an afternoon spent drilling the tyres and forcing screws through.

We've now got a lawnmower which wheelies! Good luck on Friday morning.

FUTURES

Published 6/06/17

SAN LEON (LSE:SLE)  Our last update against this mob (link here) was rather cautious as unlike politicians, we hate extrapolating the future with little data to back it up. However, rather bizarely, the share has achieved our initial upward target of 55.5p. And just to keep everyone laughing, it has also achieved our lower long term target at 31p. Before expecting folk to abase themselves in awe, we suspect the share price is actually unsure of direction.

We are, however, a little concerned at movements since May as despite the 31p target not being breached, the share price is a little threatening now as below 31p looks perfectly capable of provoking 25p initially with secondary, if broken, at 18p.

Our suspicion is of 25p giving some sort of bounce capability, given this takes the price below the level the share was relisted last year, comfortably covering the manipulation gap. It's amazing how often bounces happen, just 'cos they make visual sense if you pause for thought. In this instance, we're viewing the low of January 2016 at 25p as viable for a bounce whereas the secondary of 18p takes the share into new territory with the promise of added misery.

Currently, on the assumption 25p becomes a reality, the share price needs bounce above 40.5p before it exits the immediate rate of descent since the price was forced below the uptrend in February. Such a movement allows coming growth to an initial 49p with secondary, if bettered, at 56p.

For now, we suspect this shall be worth watching if it explores the depths of 25p.

FUTURES

Published 5/06/17

Aberdeen Asset Management (LSE:ADN) One of the great pleasures of long daylight in Scotland comes from two purple lights in a box. Evenings are punctuated with sharp "cracks" when midges immolate themselves. We fear rather a few investors face similar fate as they experience a dangerous fascination with low share prices in the OIL sector. We'd advocate some caution if hunting bottoms unless they tend coincide with Brent Crude around the $47 point.

Aberdeen Asset Management was one of our "ISA" basket back in February (link here). At the time we mentioned the share, the price was 265p and at time of writing, its now at 286 with a high in the intervening period at 310p. Crucially though, the share has failed to actually CLOSE above 300p and instead seems to have invented a private glass ceiling for itself just below 300p. Another aspect relating to its lack of useful performance is shown (badly due to scale) of the price' recent performance since it managed to ooze above the downtrend since 2015. The share price, in an astonishing dance of truly random proportions, has spent the last 21 sessions hugging the thin BLUE line while descending gently from 300p.

What does this mean?

Generally we take this behaviour to suggest a price is either awaiting positive news or being affected by overall market conditions, not being allowed to run free until conditions resolve themselves. In the case of ABERDEEN, it also means should the share now trade above 300p we'd tend expect some fairly rapid acceleration to an initial 334p with secondary a very probable 368p.

Importantly, be making a transit through BLUE, the price is supposed to be now insulted from the threat of a bonk against the 2002 uptrend - currently 168p. The share price would require drip below 227p to suggest running shoes.

FUTURES

Published 4/06/17 

FTSE FOR THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX)  Given the UK faces a General Election in the coming week, any form of accurate near term projection is liable to face repeated mincing with each Opinion Poll result published. Our suspicion remains, almost regardless of who actually wins on Friday morning, the market will experience some sort of slump. The "only" problem is calculating how bad it could be. And there's another major problem.

With the FTSE repeatedly achieving Higher Highs, there have been a few nudges to our Big Picture calculations and the (absurd looking) scenario now is of above 7600 facing some stutters at 7686 but realistically, we're being asked to accept 8,000 points is now making itself known. Before rushing out to open a Long, it's worth pointing out the index needs slip below 6500 to cancel these prospects - rather a wide stop loss position!

There's a further bit of oddness going on. Despite the FTSE Index itself showing untrammelled optimism for the future, when we run analysis against shares, quite a few are suggesting they want to relax in the near future. As this will obviously impact the FTSE, we're pretty far from comfortable now mentioning 8,000 points as a major level of turbulence.

Near term, it appears 7520 shall prove pretty key in the coming week and if the FTSE weakens below such a point, we suspect some weakness toward 7470 is coming. Secondary, if broken, comes in at 7270 points and a probable bump against the immediate uptrend for 2017.

The - somewhat confusing - conclusion is simple; despite the threat of the market going down, it's probably still going to go up longer term! However, if it makes below 7270, ideally with closure below such a point, the pace of acceleration weakens substantially as does the prospect of 8000 makes a guest (guessed) appearance...

FUTURES

Published 1/06/17 

FTSE FOR FRIDAY & THE AIM (FTSE:UKX & FTSE:AXX) We last glanced at the AIM market (link here), back in March, and it has finally reached target. Actually, despite showing a truly intimidating growth curve following the BREXIT vote, the index isn't quite at target yet and has used the last four sessions to dance teasingly just below our 996 ambition.

However, we're perhaps being killjoys; last time we wrote on the subject, we'd mentioned a logic which demanded this index actually close above 970 to permit some proper long term ambitions. It's interesting to note, the index didn't actually ignore our 970 ambition - quite the contrary. Instead, as shown, the market bettered our 970 before reversing with (it felt) like the intention of proving it wasn't a mistake by again bouncing up from 970 and this time, to our 996 calculation.

Except it hasn't quite achieved 996 yet and while 994 is probably sufficiently close for a "Target Met", experience teaches our targets absolutely must be bettered to provide optimism for the future. This is why our 970 thing proved quite a big deal with the market showing it was a real expectation.

Of course, perhaps we're making a drama out of the (usually) dramatic for now reason as just about every calculation now signals 1143 and above for the future.  For any slow down to be considered real, the market needs below 927 before we'd raise an eyebrow. Or below 712 to provoke rushing out and buying running shoes.

The funny thing is, the AIM market appears behaving exactly as it should, given the index bettered a 17 year old chart in 2016. Essentially, it's supposed to be going up and the Big Picture influence is coming from a currently ridiculous sounding 1555 points. Of course, what all this means for members of the AIM whose share price has been ruthlessly tossed around since 2009 is hope remains for the future. Unless, of course, you're holding a share which broke below its logical bottom as members of this fraternity appear to be the LibDems of the AIM - they exist but best ignored as they tend disappoint.

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX)   Thursdays are usually pretty grotty but the start of May managed to be a slightly interesting day. Not brilliant, just not as bad as usual. The session closed with the promise of movement now bettering 7551 points continuing to 7584, effectively matching the highest ever on the index. Certainly FTSE futures appear to have gotten into the mood by blossoming to 7577 in the evening session. Of course, the creates the situation where the FTSE risks being opened UP and spending the rest of Friday paying for such temerity UNLESS the opening minute high is actually bettered within the first 90 minutes. This is one of our rules of thumb - designed to permit a short at the opening high with a super tight stop as there's often a good chance of the market reversing to the previous days closing price. In the case of the FTSE, this implies a reversal toward 7543 would make sense before clenching buttocks and switching to a long.

In summary, the situation now exists of The FTSE trading above 7551 and reaching 7584 initially. Secondary, if such a point bettered, comes in at 7650 or so. Folk who read our diatribe at the start of the week may remember we were a bit vague about 7650 as it could easily be 7630 due to some stupid FTSE moves. If triggered, the tightest stop looks like it is 7510 points, fairly reasonable given we just mooted a 100 point rise potential.

Of course, what happens if 7510 breaks? If appears weakness toward an initial 7460 makes sense with secondary, if breached, at 7365. We'd suspect some really foul news will be needed to provoke such dramatics within a single day. If triggered, stops need be at 7560 points.

FUTURES

June

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