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Published 14/09/2017

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) The FTSE is showing every sign of immediate chaos, closing the 14th Sep below the critical 7300 level and therefore firmly emplaced in a region where weakness toward 7025 makes perfect sense, perhaps with a bounce around 7170 points. As this implies the FTSE toddling off in a different direction from everyone else, we're a bit concerned. Or maybe it's leading the pack!

Recent months have been just a little boring and while the downward trend break is obvious, almost painted in neon, we've seen some indications which in normal circumstance would tell us to ignore the drop. One particular indicator has been "minute by minute" movements. We measure underlying strength in a market when normal logic is exceeded; ie, when a LONG outperforms or a SHORT outperforms. In the case of the FTSE, LONGS have tended meet and exceed initial targets whereas SHORTS tend not quite reach initial targets.

This sort of behaviour generally advises accurately which direction a trend break is liable to take. And in the current situation, with a currency whose strength is measured in chocolate frogs and an economy about to be murdered by Brexit (if we believe the media), our underlying mantra expecting an upward break has been feeling increasingly fragile.

We'll be stubborn first and try to measure the argument for near term upward travel. And hope all the movements DO NOT happen in the opening second on the 15th!

Rather uselessly, anything near term above 7318 is supposed to reach an initial 7330 points. If triggered, stop can be at yesterdays low of 7286 points. Crucially, if 7330 is bettered, we shall take this as the first sign the market actually bottomed, stir the tea leaves again, and now promote 7364 as a more interesting secondary destination.

Of course, the market actually needs better 7380 to escape the ruling force down to 7025 points but the important thing to take away from the foregoing, aside from a potential 46 point rise, is we use this as a measurement of real market direction.

The other side to the misery is what happens if 7286 is broken?

First, any short position tightest stop is at 7380 currently, unpleasantly wide. But if 7286, a magnificent drop toward a near term 7270 makes some sense. But if 7270 breaks, a cycle toward 7185 makes sense and tends justify the silly stop loss level. A small caveat of expecting a stumble downward around 7255 makes sense.

Published 13/09/2017

Royal Dutch Shell (LSE:RDSB) By bettering 55 USD (marginally), there's a theory Brent Crude has enabled a game changing movement and is supposed to be on a cycle to 60 USD next with secondary, if bettered, at 71 USD. Of course, how much of this is due to hysteria over recent storms or the usual winter fakery remains to be seen! Perhaps we're placing undue credit on a day high of 55.20, especially as Brent Futures only reached 55.065...

Sometimes, when the Futures market is outstripped by the real market, it can be wise not to fire off party poppers. However, it certainly gives an excuse for an updated look at one of the oil majors, so we've selected Royal Dutch Shell as the test case.

Currently trading around 2192p, the immediate situation suggests any growth bettering just 2207 commences a cycle toward an initial 2339p. Visually, this even makes some sense, suggesting a challenge against BLUE on the chart, the downtrend for the last three years. While secondary, if bettered, calculates around the 2600p level, there's a fly in the ointment at the very deliberate refusal to permit the price above 2400p. In keeping with the law of Higher Highs, it makes a massive degree of sense to wait the share price actually closing above 2400p before making too many plans for a rosy future where we get to mention 3000p.

As Red on the chart signals, there's been quite an impressive degree of respect paid to the uptrend and it currently demands the share price break 2120 before rushing off to change underwear as this would tick the first box for reversal toward the 2000p level, perhaps even 1745p if negative news is involved.

For now, we tend regard it as heading to 2339p.

Published 12/09/2017

FERRARI (NYSE:RACE) Some folk suspect trends can reliably predict the future. If this is so, apparently the Ferrari Formula 1 team probably face a pretty lacklustre weekend in Singapore as early trend signals are not great. Of course, the folks who know about "stuff" predict Singapore is a weekend where Ferrari should actually do rather well, whereas Mercedes are not highly rated. (Our interest in F1 Fundamentals is showing!)

Ferrari shares are currently trading around 109.94 and need only skid below 108.9 to confirm our suspicions as weakness to 102.6 looks viable. A movement such as this will prove dangerous as it's capable of triggering a further crash in the direction of 93.17.

To rubbish the suggestion, the share price requires better 115.88, so there's the stop loss level for those who believe the RED team are about to watch their world championship potentials race off into the sunset. Or, in the case of Singapore, the streetlight. (for those who correctly ignore F1, Singapore is a night-time event)

However, there is always a "however".

If we draw a trend line from the last major manipulation against Ferrari back at the start of May (there's a theory these big gaps signify a new trend starting) any coming reversal down to the 93 level is liable to bounce from the trend line as visually, there's a good chance the share price is simply gathering momentum for a future surge above its all time high at 118p.

Therefore, in theory above 115.88 should start a trend to 129 next initially but realistically we could dream of 142 in the future, assuming the team manage not to screw up the world championship. If triggered, the stop could be 112 but we'd prefer inject the fuel of sanity. Chasing a trade like this only becomes sane, should Ferrari actually better 118 again and thus, an entry point above the prior high will present the safest option.

Published 11/09/2017

CASPIAN SUNRISE (LSE:CASP) and a bit of SAN LEON too (LSE:SLE) It's always nice to find a share with a cheery name on this day when we're reminded when the b****rds stole the magic of flying. Even after all these years, the special feeling of looking up at an airplane remains a fond memory. Instead, we just look down and wonder where the bottom is.

This brings us rather neatly to CASPIAN as the share price calculates with a bottom of 5.65p, something achieved twice in recent years. This, thankfully, indicates a share price which has tended play by our rules and creates the scenario where below 5.65p is very likely to provoke a slip now to 4.15p. Rather conveniently this matches the ruling uptrend since 2013, hinting rather strongly at a coming bounce is achieved.

Visually, this sort of flamboyant flourish is the sort of nonsense we've come to expect to complete such a vile long term downtrend this share exhibits. Typically, any bounce should be expected to challenge the ruling downtrend, currently at 10.5p though it'll be worth redrawing the line should 4.15p make an appearance.

Recently, we've become fond of tossing around calculations for numbers which, if bettered, will tend suggest a share has bottomed and now showing some upward strength. In the case of CASP,  in the event of the price trading above just 6.875p mid, it ticks the very first box to suggest it has already bottomed, giving the first sign of hope "something" is about to happen. Of course, our favourite caveat remains - if it betters 6.875 as an opening second spike, forget it.

SAN LEON ENERGY (LSE:SLE)  Some months ago, we'd speculated of a bottom on SLE at 18p (see inset on chart). Usually when this sort of thing happens, we tend hope for a coming bounce to at least challenge the trend but this particular share had a nasty movement the day prior to its last trading suspension. In fact, we're surprised the 'powers that be' were not asked to find justification for what happened.

Our inclination is to ignore the movement and instead, regard the best hope as being a challenge of the real downtrend - currently at 29p. The next few days should allow a story to develop, so we may revisit the share.

Published 10/09/2017

FTSE FOR THE WEEK (FTSE:UKX) A sneaking suspicion the FTSE has been reacting to the US Hurricane business makes us wonder whether any one the US fruitcake element will prove successful is blowing, shooting, praying, or looting the storm away. Watching CNN news, the excitement was palpable when a wheelie bin blew over in Miami 10 hours before the storm made landfall. FTSE behaviour reminds of the old adage, when the US catches cold, the UK develops pneumonia.

If this indeed is the case, the coming week is liable to be trashed by a UK market rushing to the emergency department but to be realistic, we'd refrain from panic unless the FTSE finds sufficient excuse to slither below 7300 points. In fact, if looking for early warning of coming troubles, even below 7350 permits a raised eyebrow. We've some doubts as to whether any storm effects actually shall stick, mainly thanks to so called 'social media' and its ability to illustrate reality despite an entire world media becoming excited due to a Miami wheelie bin falling over in the early hours of Sunday morning, long before the hurricane actually arrived.

So, if the market is in trouble, below 7350 gives early warning whereas if it's all probable fakery but above 7388 gives an early clue of media hysterics being ignored. The interesting aspect is the proximity of both numbers, essentially suggesting the market doesn't have a clue what to do.

Our own thinking is to resort to looking at recent lows as they suggest should the future break below 7300, a drop toward 7250 now makes sense with secondary 7183. And this, unfortunately, takes the index into the realms of lower lows with 7020 proving to be the ruling attraction.

Equally, if we look for "higher highs", while above 7388 gives some hope for an upward break, we'd prefer waiting see the FTSE better 7440 as 7525 looks about right with secondary 7600 points. And as mentioned on Friday, above 7600 represents a game changer for the FTSE with 7,900 possible with secondary, if bettered, at a long term 8,700.

And if you think this means you can go long at 7,388 with a target of 8,700 and a stop just below 7,350... you're on your own. Sometimes we don't take numbers too seriously. And sometimes we regret this flippant attitude.

Published 07/09/2017

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) As with hurricanes, sometimes an occasional satellite photo of the markets isn't a bad idea and in the case of the FTSE, it also provides one of our rare 

 "print it out and stick it on the wall" comments. In addition, the second chart below is especially curious when viewed against its 21 year old parent.

Firstly, there's something important about The Big Picture. It tells us, once again, should the FTSE now trade above the 7,600 point mark, it enters a cycle to 7,900 next. Secondary comes in at a very probable 8,700 points. Additionally, amazingly and even astoundingly, our software advises if the movement triggers then no stop is required!

This particular proposal is given as a result of just two criteria. Either the stop should be as tight as heck OR the width of a required stop is too stupid to suggest. When this sort of nonsense crops up, here's a reasonable rule of thumb; if the movement triggers, stick in a stop loss just below the prior days lowest level. Or accept your trading software' default and crucially, go do something else for a while and stop paying attention to the markets.

For now though, it's quite curious how market conditions in the last few weeks tend mimic the FTSE big picture. It's certainly something we don't recall seeing previously and if this microcosm of the Big Picture behaves the same way, allegedly the FTSE is about to experience a near term boost. If this is the case, here's the key numbers.

Near term, should the FTSE better 7414, it enters a position where we're looking for some growth to 7465 points initially. Our secondary, if such a level is bettered, comes in at 7550 points. About the sanest stop appears to be 7350 though, if we resort to drawing lines, there's a suggestion a stop could be placed at 7399 points.

Have a good weekend.

Published 06/09/2017

PETROFAC LTD (LSE:PFC) Why is X-Factor not shown once every four years? Everyone acknowledges 'Reality' shows are basically garbage, designed to fill these empty spaces between TV advertising. Thus, it was with considerable horror we discovered our own favourite show, "Gold Rush", is classed as Reality TV! We thought it documentary - but our reality is better than everyone else' anyway...

Seriously though, if X Factor followed the World Cup model, it would prove more interesting with a wider timeframe allowing some proper talent to emerge. Similarly, if Big Brother followed the example set by the Scottish village of Brigadoon, it would appear only once every 100 years, along with "I'm' a Nonentity, get me out".

What's this got to do with shares? The clue is the word "timeframe" (along with irritation at a granddaughters fascination with X Factor)

We never deny timeframes are our Achilles heel though, we do feel they are generally impossible to predict accurately. A recent example was RBS where we'd postulated a target of 265p. It met this target, even exceeded it and is now rummaging around in the gutter along with politicians searching for integrity. We "knew" RBS was going to hit 265p and anyone who'd followed our commentary probably cussed when the price actually bettered target. From our perspective, it didn't really matter as we also "knew" 265 would doubtless provoke some stutters anyway, so despite cursing us when it hit 270p, perhaps a round of drinks are in order with the share price slithering around 244p now. They key element was it almost had to happen but we'd no idea how long it would take.

And this is the problem with Petrofac. It has experienced a couple of good sessions recently and we feel guilty, 'cos it had ticked virtually every box to suggest the price really wants to bottom (ideally before) at 180p. At time of writing, it's trading at 444p and needs above 740p (RED) to force us to shut up about the 180p bottom potential.

But when a 4 quid share starts experiencing 8+% days, we must surely pay attention?

From a near term perspective, it seems some optimism remains possible as above just 448p calculates as entering a cycle toward 490p next. While perhaps not the most scintillating of notions, the key ingredient comes if 490p bettered as our secondary comes in at 568p. Visually, given an ambition of 490p matches the highs of earlier this year, common sense demands some stutters around such a level, so if chasing a quick trade this presents a sane target.

The 568p thing is a bit more tenuous - remembering ultimate bottom of 180p remains exerting its own brand of gravity. But with closure above 490p, it becomes a difficult thing to ignore as the price could easily accelerate beyond such a point and cover the gap from 615p.

In summary, there are some very real dangers associated with this share price and a poor news report is liable to stuff it downward sharply. For now though, the visuals imply an attempt at 490p is not out of the question and hopefully, with closure above, beyond.

Published 05/09/2017

LLOYDS BANK (LSE:LLOY) It has been a month since we viewed this lot and it's failed to do anything special. Perhaps the 4.44p width of movement has deep meaning to some folk but from our perspective it simply illustrated what a waste of time August was. Unfortunately, we'd postulated 63.5 as a droop target and not only has the share obliged, it has managed to slither below. Obviously, this means something and our software is now proclaiming a bounce point for the price.

Actually, it's the same bounce point we'd mentioned last month; somewhere around 57.5168p mid-price apparently. Of course, we always give some derrière covering numbers and in the case of Lloyds, the very last straw for the next leg down should be trades below 61.52p - though in fairness it's just about in the drop zone from a visual perspective, closing the 5th Sept against the RED uptrend, though to be pedantic, it did end the session a few 1/100th of a penny below.

Worse, there's another issue if 57.5 actually does make an appearance. We shall commence viewing Lloyds as a share achieving lower lows and probably feel the need to mention 50.5 as possible for a real "trampoline" bounce.

To escape this mess, the share price requires bettering 66.85p currently, the BLUE line on the chart.

So, now all the good news is out of the way, what does the immediate future hold?

We'll pretend the share closed the session above RED and assume some sort of bounce is viable. This being the case, the immediate situation suggests anything capable of bettering 64.2p should attempt 65.25p which, if bettered, ticks the first box for bottom being "in". Then things get a little curious, thanks to all the opening second manipulation gaps the price has suffered. Apparently, above 65.25 means we should express optimism in the direction of 66p but the price could easily find sufficient oomph to accelerate to 68.5p and beyond.

For now though, we suspect 57.5p shall probably give some sort of bounce in the fullness of time.

Published 04/09/17 

CARD FACTORY (LSE:CARD) Recent news of Yellow Pages final demise reminded of the thump when an unopened copy hit the bottom of an empty wheelie bin. A secret hope similar fate awaits the greeting card industry appears a wasted dream. Despite the internet and common sense, people still insist on sending greeting cards to celebrate mediocrity. Which brings us to the Card Factory and their share price.

When we view their downtrend since 2015, it appears pretty nicely designed, hinting any movement fairly soon above 343p (BLUE) should bring an initial greeting to 361p with secondary, if exceeded, at a longer term major occasion of 404p. We've designed to designate 404p as a major occasion due to this matching (okay, slightly bettering) the share price' all time high back in September 2015.

It would be utter madness not to expect some dramatics at such a level, if only due to those whose funds were trapped at the prior high liquidating and causing a deluge of sell orders. The unpleasant reality for those so effected comes, if the share price actually manages to CLOSE above the 400p level. Our inclination will be to regard this as a bit of a game changer for the price, requiring another stir of the tea leaves as while we're calculating 448p above this point, the reality could prove quite a bit higher.

In house, we were speculating on a new line of greetings cards to mark the coming "Guy Fawkes" celebration. Imagine a card which exploded when opened? Though this has perhaps been already invented by folk sharing Guy Fawkes sentiments, it'd be hard to envision something quite as unpleasant as a card which issued a shower of Disneyesque glitter sparkles unexpectedly and therefore, a probable best seller. Until the first murder.

We do suspect CARD shall prove worth keeping an eye on during the coming weeks, ideally for closure above 343p as upward travel should prove difficult to restrain. Any attempt to slow the share down requires the price falling below RED at 295p currently and below the Dashed Red at 236p would scare the heck out of us as a decline to 220 / 150 eventually would appear inevitable.

Published 01/09/17 

FTSE FOR THE COMING WEEK (FTSE:UKX) The current 'Korea Thing' reminds of the John Wyndham's (the Day of the Triffids bloke) book, the Kraken Wakes. It's a usual 'The Worlds Ending' short story and in it, the two hero's discuss which shares they've bought due to sea shipping lanes closing. Both had gone for airline stocks and now, we wonder if the building sector will face a surge! Even though the world is ending apparently.

The FTSE certainly completed August with some reasonable potentials for the future as movements now above 7460 signal continued traffic toward an initial 7528 points with secondary coming in at a thermonuclear 7,600 points. The BLUE line on the chart coincides with 7528 later this week...

We've a bit of an issue with the 7,600 ambition as once the FTSE starts bettering this point, a further 200+ point surge becomes very available. However, it certainly appears any bonk against the 7,600 level is liable to provoke a stutter, if only due to the challenge facing a market attempting to beat the June high. And this, despite us facing financial ruin due to avaricious Europeans and physical ruin due to North Korea.

This is why we tend ignore the news. According to UK headlines, we should all be digging holes and puling it in over ourselves!

There's a slight issue with current growth potentials, due to the immediate growth curve. It's essentially too steep and presents the situation where the FTSE needs slip below RED - currently 7296, before becoming worried about upward travel. As this presents an unpleasantly near 150 point stop loss width, it's not entirely useful.

But what happens if 7296 now breaks?

Initially, we calculate weakness now toward 7175 but should such a level break with any substance, it seems 7025 comes in as a bottom where a bounce can be hoped. But "normal" rules say the market is going to 7,600 as top on the current cycle.

Published 31/08/17 

FTSE FOR FRIDAY and BMR GROUP (FTSE:UKX & LSE:BMR) Sometimes, we see a share behaving strangely and feel the need to say something, if it's one we know but don't cover on a daily basis for clients. On Thursday 31st Aug, BMR did something stupid, so we looked at moves from 8am until 11.30 then Tweeted about the potentials of 6p appearing, perhaps even 7.25p. Once suspension was lifted, it shot up to 6.5p before being murdered!

The unpleasant inset on the chart below illustrates our dismay. Despite a stonking surge to 6.5p, considerable care was taken to ensure the share price actually CLOSED the session below the uptrend since the start of 2016. This particular uptrend does appear important, given the circled movement at the end of June when the share was forced below the trend. It's almost like someone doesn't actually want the price to go up just yet as it closed the session at 3.75, indicating anything continuing below 3.75 should find 3.25p hopefully coated with trampoline juice.

Any bounce now continuing above 6.15p looks capable of 7.15p next with secondary coming in at 9.375p. Fingers crossed time, as usual!

FTSE FOR FRIDAY  Our comments about a 'surprise' recovery at the start of September looks close to fruition. Perhaps we saw this on Thursday (usually a negative day on the FTSE) with the market appearing quite uppity. This situation now expects anything near term above 7444 to continue to an initial 7472 points with secondary, if bettered, at 7545 points. Recent behaviour has tended legislate against 100 point days on the FTSE but who knows, a new month, new optimism, and all of the USA are fully employed building an Ark apparently.

If triggered, the FTSE needs below 7416 to cancel any immediate optimism, a dangerously tight stop loss when viewed against a 100 point potential. If we attribute our lower low laws, the stop should really be 7364 points!

So what happens if 7364 is broken?

Initial weakness to 7314 looks about right. Secondary comes in at 7255 points. If triggered, stop can be at 7381 points, again surprisingly tight!

Have a good weekend.

Published 30/08/17 

HURRICANE & PAN AFRICAN (LSE:HUR & LSE:PAF) The plethora of damp misery from the USA almost demands we visit HURRICANE ENERGY just to remain on-topic. Whereas a client rather spoiled our aloof behaviour by advising PAN AFRICAN are liable to benefit should our recent GOLD thoughts come to fruition. In fairness, it's probably a better reason rather than our in-house addiction to Gold Rush on telly!

It must be admitted Hurricane Energy sounds better than Hurricane Harvey but both share a similarity in dampening the outlook for those involved. In the case of LSE:HUR, we rather suspect it's close to a logical "bottom", a point where some sort of bounce should be expected. We're a little vague on this subject due to the plethora of manipulation movements at the open recently but there's now a heck of an argument favouring a bounce from 25p.

We're not entirely sure whether we should actually believe this due to everyone and their dog painting a circle at the gap from 24.5p and convincing themselves the price shall cover the gap before any bounce. This, rather effectively, risks creating a self fulfilling prophecy. Our secondary target, if 25p broken, now calculates at 22p where it almost must bounce. The implication, if it doesn't, is an ultimate bottom of 10p which is visually ridiculous.

Any bounce exceeding 29.5p will better the immediate downtrend, launching the price toward 33p initially hopefully with secondary a very possible 36.75p. Beyond such a point, we will require running the numbers again as some sharp upward travel becomes very possible.

PAN AFRICAN (LSE:PAF) This has exhibited quite a respectable downtrend with traders obviously gearing every decision since July 2016 to ensure the share price failed ever better the BLUE line. Joking aside, this level of manual control can often provide some hysterics as a break above signals control has eased and some swift travel generally follows. The immediate trend suggests anything above 15.5p should target an initial 17.75p. Secondary, if such bettered, comes in at either 21.25 or 23.75p - we're forced to be vague thanks to some manipulation in November 2016 and suspect the reality shall prove to be a glass ceiling at 22p - a series of highs which also match the downtrend.

Rather conveniently, it's also roughly half way between our secondary targets and there's nothing wrong with a reasonable compromise!

Published 29/08/17 

GOLD (COMEX:QO) It's easy to forget about Gold - we've two Golden Retrievers and neither ever bring any back! But the price of GOLD has recently started exhibit signs of waking up with the result short positions are liable to melt away. As the chart shows, the price has now bettered the downtrend since the highs of 2011 and thus, some growth can be anticipated.

There's a little caveat, one liable to be important. The price of Brent Crude also bettered a major downtrend and has since tended flutter around rather than actually showing real growth. As a result, we're a little nervous about the break upwards GOLD is showing and - similar to BRENT and it's trigger level around 56 - we'll not take GOLD too seriously unless the price actually betters 1342. In such an event, our inclination shall be to cough politely and mention 1384 as the next major point of interest, perhaps even 1470 longer term.

Near term, our outlook against GOLD suggests anything now above 1327 should challenge an initial 1336 with secondary, if bettered, at 1342. And only if 1342 is bettered does the Big Picture suggest it has bottomed (for now) and future growth will make sense.

If trouble with the price of GOLD is planned, it requires to drop below BLUE on the chart - currently 1264. But for now, we shall be watching for 1342 making an appearance as, if this level is bettered, it will tend indicate some happy daze ahead for Gold Miners.

Published 28/08/17 

FTSE FOR THE WEEK (FTSE:UKX)  As we crawl toward the end of August and the realisation some git is about to start counting down the days until Christmas anytime soon, the market generally experiences a bit of flat behaviour. Worse, all the proper journalists are on holiday with newsrooms stuffed with an unsupervised 'z-squad' eager to prove their worth by pumping out ridiculous panic stories in an effort to be noticed.

Often, the effect of this last gasp by the z-squad is to provoke a final dip on the markets prior to the grown ups returning from their August break with the result any final dip around the end of August is often corrected by some surprise strength during September. As a result, the coming week is liable to prove interesting with the additional caveat - remembering the foregoing - any drop is not likely to last.

Unless, of course, it does!

The immediate situation is fairly interesting as the FTSE appears on a track toward 8,000 points as the next major point of interest. If needs dribble below 6750 to utterly trash such a positive notion though, in fairness, below 7300 would panic us a little. On the immediate movement cycle, it appears anything now above 7550 should prove capable of challenging an initial 7715 points with secondary 8,020 points.

But as we're approaching end-August, below 7300 would present an issue and prove capable of weakness toward 7150 initially, perhaps even around 7,000 points. We'd suspect the 7150 thing to be viable but the secondary, becoming possible longer term if such a level is broken, is a real "lower low" nuisance as the FTSE would enter a region with 6,600 as bottom.

As the chart below highlights, hitting 6,600 would stink as it breaks RED, the uptrend which permits 8,000 currently.

Published 24/08/17 

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) There's little doubt this week has been grotty with the markets moving slower than a politician trying to issue an apology. From our perspective, the last couple of sessions were signalling some decent upward movements but the reality has been somewhat slow. It's still August though with the inevitable feeling of sluggishness.

The immediate situation with the FTSE (not futures) suggests anything now above 7442 should prove interesting, capable of generating some moves toward 7490 points which is fairly useful. Quite surprisingly, the stop required is around 7405 points, relatively sane. We've a secondary above 7490 points and it's at 7590.

Common sense cautions against expecting the FTSE to produce a day capable of outperforming the previous week in an upward direction, especially during the holiday period. But who knows, perhaps some good news is scheduled...

However, there is a tiny little visual problem which we really should mention.

Across the top of the chart is a blue line, currently at 7537 points. Untrammelled optimism is only permitted should the market better this level. Until such a point, there's a very real risk of anything below 7383 allowing for 7344 points with secondary, if broken, at 7286 points. Crucially, this takes the index into a region where "if it hits the fan" a further sharp reversal toward 7185 is possible!

Published 23/08/17 

WPP PLC & PROVIDENT FINANCIAL (LSE:WPP & LSE:PFG) This pair of shares, in discovering gravity, provoked a large quantity of emails from folk. Invariably, when a share price is forced down by more than 10% at the open, expecting a reasonable bounce will often prove wasted exercise. Sometimes a price is genuinely forced down to a new trading level, most times not as the market will tend flatten movements before trapping yet another bunch of private investors.

In the case of WPP, we're justifiably curious as the drop actually did come pretty close to an initial target of 1361p, the day low being 1382p. We've "issues" if this lot were to trade below 1361p as we'd be forced to cough politely and mention 1032p! However, the initial drop did come pretty blooming close to our target for a share of this price and therefore, we'll be curious if the price manages above 1450p anytime soon as it should prove capable of generating a useless 1472p. The important this is, should 1472 be bettered, it implies bottom is actually "in" and further movement toward 1563 can be hoped for. This would imply a challenge coming against BLUE on the chart below and, with closure above 1563p we'll be inclined to assume the drop was over-cooked and anticipate some future growth.

PROVIDENT FINANCIAL unfortunately presents a rather less impressive case for the future. We'd been calculating a 'worst case' drop target of 646p, an ambition the price managed crash below on both the 22d and 23rd. Despite the price closing the 23rd marginally above at 661p. we're extremely cautious at the idea of calling "bottom" due to the longer term secondary below 646 languishing at 289p. While this represents a price level unseen since 1994, it's worth remembering the share is already trading below the worst levels of the financial crash of 2009.

It's officially dangerous.

To toss a carrot in the direction of hope, apparently anything above 685 should bring 784p. And apparently, if 784 is bettered, there's a chance it actually has bottomed and some progress toward the immediate downtrend  at 1390 currently should commence. Let's just say the jury is out against such a prospect.

Published 22/08/17 

NATIONAL EXPRESS & the other SIRIUS (LSE:NEX & LSE:SRSP) In a couple of "firsts", we're looking at a share which inspired one of the funniest song lyrics ever (arse... the size of a small countree!) along with another share which isn't even trading, due to a period of suspension. But it is potentially interesting!

To deal with Sirius Petroleum first, it had been showing - from our perspective - early signals of something important happening. Then suddenly, trade in their shares ceased pending some sort of announcement. It results in the situation where we can now speculate on what is required to make the share useful as a longer term punt or even as a near term trade.

When "they" pressed the Pause Button on Sirius, it was trading around 1.12p and in the event of it resuming trade priced above 1.37, we're showing coming growth toward 2p as a viable ambition. But if "they" opt to relist it above 2p, the game changes as movement toward 2.6 is hoped, perhaps even 3.5p. And should some miracle take the share above 3.5p, we'd require to give the tea leaves a damned good shake and run the numbers again.

Of course, "they" could opt do the nasty on traders by relisting, then immediately diluting the number of shares in circulation. Only if this drove the price below RED (currently 0.92) would we be seriously alarmed. The only reason for bringing this up has been behaviour from a few other companies over the years who sometimes appear less concerned at their share price than we'd prefer.

National Express and their place in our brain, due to featuring in a Divine Comedy tune, has a pretty amazing uptrend since 2009 with the share price now requiring to break below 295p to reliably indicate a bump on the road. Perhaps more important is the downtrend since 2007 and this indicates the price needs above 385 to signal something important is happening. Given it is currently trading around 360p, it certainly does not require much movement to hit the 385 trigger - above shows an initial ambition of 397p with secondary, if bettered, at 410p where we'd anticipate some stutters.

Importantly for the longer term, closure above BLUE does shuffle the share into position for longer term growth toward 477p.

Published 21/08/17 

The Pound, The Euro and a Toilet Flush... (FX:GBPEUR) One of the more encouraging signals, when viewing a trend, is spotting when a price is under manual control. We come to this conclusion, generally when the level of market manipulation eases above ridiculous and such is the fable currently being fed by Pound / Euro movements. The chart below shows the last 10 years.

What we're especially fascinated by is the period from April this year to current. In April, the pairing broke trend and surged toward the 1.2 level before once again being driven back. And since April, in behaviour more choreographed than a TV reality show, the pair has very carefully slithered down the historic light blue trend. In fact, such has been the control exerted it seems we should expect the current drop target - 1.068 - sometime around the start of October this year. This additionally, is why we dislike Forex in day to day analysis as we regard the market as crooked.

As always, the question is "Will it bounce?"

And the other question should be, what does the pairing need do to trash the drop potentials?

Firstly. the pairing need better 1.1438 to remove itself from this immediate decline cycle, so there's the stop loss level. But secondly, there's still a fairly large "last ditch" trigger level to be achieved and it's at 1.088. If (when) the pairing moves below this point, our 1.068 becomes almost inevitable but so, unfortunately, does our real secondary target at 1.028. Normal rules indicate some sort of fake bounce will happen around the 1.068 point but a real bounce can be hoped at 1.028.

Finally, there's a peculiar facet of the RED uptrend since 2008. For a brief period in October 2016, the pairing broke the trend, one of these fake spike down things presumably aimed to capture a bunch of folks stop loss levels. Our inclination has been to ignore this trend break but it creates the situation where this currency pairing has already broken the long term uptrend - as of the start of last week - and now, it's already floundering around in a zone where 1.027 can be expected to show its face.

Great for tourism to the UK and exports to Europe. (gulp)

Published 20/08/17 

FTSE FOR THE WEEK (FTSE:UKX) Our Friday outlook was to prove devastatingly accurate, the FTSE bottoming at 7302.47 while our target was 7301.78. Pretty close by any standards and, aside from blowing our trumpet, we're taking some assurance from our drop target not actually being worsened. Even though it was pretty damned close and again, goes some way to explaining why our two FTSE columns are consistently our "best read" despite never mentioning Bruce Forsyth...

The FTSE closed the week at 7325 points, needing better 7407 currently to exceed the immediate market downtrend and enter a zone where growth to 7500 points becomes a viable ambition, perhaps even 7596 points if viagra is involved. If triggered, stop can be around the 7370 point at its very tightest, though recent swings almost demand it be placed just below the 7300 level.

Of course, there's always the risk the market will use the recent death of someone who was old to generate some near term hysterics though, if we shelf our cynical nature, the visuals suggest as the market has once again explored the "holiday floor" of 7300, it should really bounce. The fly in the ointment is fairly important as "the computer" has a big picture warning flag at 7305, this being a level which really should not have broken. But it was broken, briefly, on Friday!

Near term movements below 7300 therefore suggest 7185 is possible with secondary, if broken, at 7020 points. Unfortunately, as with the upward potentials, a 100 point stop is probably the sanest possible.

Published 17/08/17 

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) Following a week of artificial movements, generated by artificial outrage against artificial politicians, the FTSE closed on Thursday somewhat ambigiously. Strangely, at lunchtime we'd given a client drop parameter from 7398 points to 7382.05 points and the market bounced at 7382.16, so perhaps some strength exists as our target was not broken.

The implication now is, should 7382 break, we should anticipate coming weakness to 7347 initially. Secondary calculates at a less confident looking 7301.78 points. If triggered, the tightest stop appears to be 7420 points.

However - and as always, do remember we are talking FTSE and not FTSE futures - we're inclined to take some hope of Friday being able to provoke some sort of upward day and the manufactured outrage against whatever the media took offence at seems to be waning considerably. It results in the situation where the FTSE need only better 7435 to give hope for a change in the index' fortunes as near term oomph to an initial 7452 points appears uselessly possible. Secondary, if bettered, comes in at 7502 points. If triggered, the tightest stop level calculates at 7370 points.

The funny thing is, the underlying longer term influence remains at 7544 points and despite a week of media hysterics, this appears to remain the case. In fact, if we adopt Rose Tinted Glasses, there's now a heck of an argument favouring a distant 7731 as the secret ruling attraction. The index needs slither below 7305 to nonsense such a cunning plan! In addition, it's probably worth noting the FTSE has effectively done nothing significant since June. As the picture below illustrates, the market is essentially flatlining in a 250 point range.

Published 16/08/17 

SKY PLC (LSE:SKY)  There's a saying about "Chicken Little" running around shouting The Sky is Falling and we suspect such a description rather neatly fits ourselves, despite being blissfully clueless about just who Chicken Little was. It's funny, generally when you attempt to cancel a service, you're call is handled by a UK Call Centre who attempts to change your mind. When cancelling SKY, there was a strong suspicion the conversation was being held with a distant country.

If this was indeed the case, perhaps it echoes the suspicion quite a few folk are moving away and this ticked another box which expects the share price to drop. Except it has not really budged, remaining trapped between 950 and 10 quid.

Recent news of the new owners of Formula One announcing a requirement to keep the sport free to view as they attempt to bolster dropping viewer numbers should, again, point at a revenue issue for Sky as people (ourselves included) object paying to watch 2 hours of advertising moving at over 200mph. But so far, yet again, it hasn't dropped.

If we continue banging our drum, the share price remains in a zone where continued weakness below 950 should provoke an initial 919 with the potential of some sort of bounce. But realistically we suspect 872p should be the point where a real future bounce occurs, especially due to the uptrend since the end of 2016. Worse, if the company were to issue negative news, it could sharply drop to 497p. There's a very obvious downtrend since 2015 and it indicates the share price requires better 980p currently to kybosh all the drop arguments.

So, what happens if SKY somehow manages to soar above 980p? An initial movement to 1092 makes a lot of sense with secondary, if bettered, at a more impressive 1267p

Published 15/08/17

Mears Group (LSE:MER) Recently this company attained a degree of notice and now, with a recent notification regarding profits, it seems the market have a cunning plan. On Monday, the share price closed at 485p and when we woke this morning, it presented itself at 452p. By most standards, a fairly substantial forced movement downward of 6.8%, before any trading actually took place. It seems the market wants to bring this down.

As the session progressed, the price closed at 445p, establishing itself pretty firmly on a track toward 356p which is a pretty big problem. When we scrawl a crayon mark on a chart, the calculated immediate drop target on this cycle is below the uptrend since 2011. While there's a pretty good chance the red line will provoke some sort of bounce, when our software says 356p following this sort of forced downward motion, it tends prove itself correct.

Additionally, when we view the lows of 2016, there's a good chance some sort of bounce can be anticipated should 356p make a guest appearance.

The real problem is a little more complex. If our calculations prove correct, it's absolutely critical 356p should not be broken as the price risks a seriously sharp period of reversal toward 205p eventually. This sort of calamity brings the share price into a dangerous region below the uptrend since the year 2000 and basically gives hope for a serious bounce when punters spot it has matched the lows of 2011.

To get out of this mess, the company needs their price to better BLUE on the chart, currently 495p. About the only hope we can dangle near term will be a rough calculation which advises if above 475p, there's a good chance the drop was overcooked. For now though, our suspicion is of 356 appearing.

Published 14/08/17

TWITTER (NYSE:TWTR)  A surprise weekend away to steal the sunshine provided a humorous return to reality in Scotland. Driving from the somewhat ambitiously named "Oban Airport ('no jets') " back to our international headquarters (aka; the house), a good idea was to leave us stranded. As it's summer, the weather up here in Argyll was vile, each raindrop trying to prove it was fatter than its predecessor.

A castle, somewhat worn down to ruins our due to the plethora of photo opportunities, on Loch Awe was followed by a potential Right Turn to Inveraray. It's an absurdly pretty village in Argyll where it never rains, you can always get parked, and more importantly, the road we'd chosen would avoid tourist motor homes and caravans. It winds up one side of a near mountain, then gives a fast giant slalom down to the pretty village. Just a couple of fast bends away from the archway into the town, hazard lights illuminated our future. Once ten minutes had elapsed, a decision was made to walk downhill to investigate the cause.

It transpired Twitter and YouTube had invoked a traffic jam.

The road was flooded with a stream having burst its banks. But the real issue was the bank of smart phones being trained on vehicles attempting to float their way through the muddy water, presumably along with a Dash Cam inside the Ford Focus creating an impressive bow wave as it punched its way onward. There was a cheer once it exited the maelstrom and somehow, no-one noticed it spluttering to a halt a few hundred yards along the road.

Next came the inevitable MPV, a Daihatsu, and this one seemed at least competent as it came slowly with a high revving engine. As he drove past the camera audience, the drivers door opened to allow some water out. Shortly thereafter, he was blocked by the immobilised Ford Focus - now discovering the highlands of Scotland are not the best place to get a phone signal when broken down.

A massive cheer announced a back-packers mini-bus was attempting the flood, the terrified looking driver almost making it before the vehicle came to a halt just a few feet away from safety.

The road was now thoroughly blocked in both directions, partially by a flood but realistically due to Twitter and YouTube pressures as the need for a good movie clip to punctuate a holiday had seemed over-ride common sense. After around an hour, whatever had jammed up the drains cleared and within 5 minutes the flood was a memory, only spoiled by broken down vehicles on both sides of the memory jamming the road and trapping around a dozen cars including ourselves. It was to prove a recipe of endless amusement for traffic police vehicles which eventually arrived to sort this incompetence. The return journey to our International Headquarters (aka; still a house) was to take 6 rather than 2 hours.

How we laughed. However, a bemused family of Germans allowed me to renew my language skills in an attempt to describe cold fury to fellow trapped travellers.

It also begs the question as to why Twitters share price looks like it intends a hopeful bottom around 12.33. If this level breaks, the absolute bottom calculates at 7.62. To utterly cancel this prospect, the share price needs above 20.

We think the bounce point shall prove to be 12.33 and a tuppenceworth glance at timeframe logic suggests sometime around the end of August. If 12.33 breaks, we'd be somewhat nervous about 7.62 as it could be much worse.

If there are to be any suggestions of gloomy outlook could prove incorrect, anything near term bettering 17.9 is supposed to bring 18.7. Only if 18.7 bettered shall we feel inclined to indulge a panic review of our 12.33 bottom thinking.

Finally, it's August. Who wants to read about share prices only? Or write about 'em!

Published 12/08/17 

FTSE FOR THE WEEK (FTSE:UKX)  Social Media seems the new driving force in the world, generally capable of doing absolutely nothing except give broadcast media and newspapers something to talk about. It's easy to lose count of the "Massive Outrage over 'xyz'" nonsense reports, where if you dig deeper, the entire basis of the story was essentially, "some idiot on Twitter wrote 'xyz is bad'." Equally, how often can the childrens writer, J.K Rowling deliver "massive slamdowns" when all she does is tweet.

It's difficult to take the level of hype over the US President's tweets when, if pausing for thought, who hasn't written something vaguely outrageous when fuelled by a glass of wine and a keyboard? Okay, perhaps the bloke does have some power at his elbow but we're rather sceptical at the very contrived series of market reversals, all generated due to some idiot on Twitter writing something rather than discreetly NOT thinking out loud. It's probably when Trump stops Tweeting we should be worried. And goodness help us all if he ever calls for a Strong and Stable coalition.

It appears we should thank the level of media hysteria - due entirely to "some idiot on Twitter says" calibre of journalism - for trashing the FTSE as now, below 7296 looks perfectly capable of driving the FTSE down to 7181 next, perhaps even 7020 if we judge the closing point of the FTSE on the 11th as valid. To cancel these drop potentials on the immediate cycle, the index requires to grow above 7400 points. So, for the brave, there's your stop level.

Above 7400 now looks capable of generating an initial 7484 points, perhaps even 7622 if anyone decides international conflicts are probably not best judged by "some idiot on Twitter says" style of reporting. If triggered, STOP looks like 7375, a remarkably generous number and probably wrong!

It's the holiday season and recently, we've opted to fill our articles with inconsequential rubbish just to take up column inches. But the story about the garden swing did actually need told.

For now though, if we judge the index where it closed on Friday, it shall make sense to expect a bounce around 7181 points in the week ahead.

Published 10/08/17 

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX)  Life used to be simple. A request for a rope swing to amuse grandchildren ensured, rather than watching the FTSE, a massive engineering project was undertaken. Didn't we once throw a bit of rope over a branch and tie a handy stick to the bottom? If the rope broke, the stick broke, or the branch broke, it was all part of the fun. Wish I'd stayed indoors watching the FTSE fake everyone out!

Actually producing a swinging bench seat for 5 and 3 year old girls was to prove fascinating. There seems an imperative that neither child throttle themselves, along with the risk of their mother and grandmother wanting a go on the swing. In fact, there's a real risk all four of them will insist on a photo opportunity, therefore a single plank for a seat was out of the question. Instead, imagine a park bench without legs, suspended from 4 ropes which required the most ridiculous level of engineering to ensure the finished contraption remained horizontal. Worse, the "park bench" needed a roof to ensure the ropes remained clear of the occupants.

We've now got the ability to swing above the pool at the bottom of the waterfall and better still, it actually receives a decent wireless signal. Unfortunately, this is Scotland and summer happened a few months ago!

Sorry, really nothing to do with the FTSE but it was a truly surreal day, punctuated by "oh shit" when the FTSE finally broke below 7430. This risks being an official "bad thing" as it wasn't supposed to happen. From where the index closed Wednesday, we'd fully expected a visit to 7430 but with the bounce lasting until 10am, it seemed wisest to find something else to do for a while.

By lunchtime, we felt able to alert clients the next bottom potential was at 7381 points with this achieved just after 3pm. Unfortunately, despite the market bouncing a bit, our 7381 was broken and it left a sick feeling for the future. Worse, GOLD has broken above 1282, a long term downtrend. Traditionally, if GOLD blossoms, the markets risk a bit of a pounding.

According to our tea leaves, if the FTSE now wanders below 7375 points, we should anticipate near term weakness toward 7315 points. Secondary, if broken, is a pretty dire 7210 points. Surprisingly, the tightest stop level looks like 7400 points, rather generously tight for a 165 point trade.

Experience tends suggest the market is rarely this generous as a 25 point stop for 165 points tends not come along too often. In fact, generally if this sort of thing occurs, we smell a rat as it's often an indication the market has over-reacted.

What happens if the FTSE betters 7400?

Firstly, it ticks an important box and hints bottom is "in".

Secondly, we'd hope to witness near term growth toward 7435 initially. If this level is bettered, we're calculating a return to 7481 points. Which is just weird. If triggered, we can again show a tight 25 point stop but realistically we'd prefer 7360 as the stop level, simply due to a prior FTSE FUTURES low.

It's funny, our two FTSE articles continue being our most popular output. When we view our website statistics, in addition to UK readers, we've visitors from Singapore, NY, South Africa, UAE, and most European countries. And one bloke in Moscow, so 'hi Mr Putin'. The reason for highlighting this phenomena is it suggests that despite a UK media constantly downplaying our country, the reality is of worldwide interest and rather flatteringly, our stuff seems to matter.

Have a good weekend.

Published 09/08/17 

AMUR MINERALS (LSE:AMC) Back in the day, we used to hate Mondays but Wednesday was a day for optimism, a great time to start something new as it could be completed for the weekend. Wednesday has also become 'SPAM' day, literally the worst period for being innundated as a bunch of clowns finally release the rubbish they've spent a few days preparing.

Oddly, while historically the FTSE used to be fairly reliable for positive Wednesday behaviour, nowadays we can be less certain but this is probably due to a shift in the patterns of international economic announcements.

It's funny, we try as hard as possible to publicise ourselves but discover, despite some stonking results, our most popular Tweet in the last month was; "You've obviously never been bitten on the willy by a Scottish midge!" when answering someone questioning why some Scots hate their own country.

As always, this analogy merges seamlessly into a report against AMC - Amur - but only if discussing itches which cannot be decently scratched.

The magic number for AMC is currently 8.8325p roughly. This represents the BLUE line on the chart and, with closure above, we can be fairly confident the share price expects some recovery. Until such a point, we're left with the fear the price is simply exhibiting internet chatroom inspired exuberance. Don't get us wrong, we're as happy as anyone when a share price experiences 20%+ sessions but invariably, unless a makes it above a trend, there are always going to be a bunch of folk who bought at the highest price due to slavish adherence to gossip.

However... there's already a strong argument favouring AMC heading toward 11.75p on the immediate movement cycle. Generally we're ultra cautious with this sort of thing until a share price actually closes in recovery territory but there's little doubt AMUR are making most of the correct moves. Should the price continue to perform with some integrity, we can even argue for a secondary above 11.75 at 13p.

At this point, an issue becomes apparent given the prices high back in February. Or in plain English, we'd expect some stutters at the 13p level at least until all those suckered into buying at the 17p high of February 10th cash in their shares at break even or less!

For now, this appears worth watching closely as the price requires to slither below RED (5.65 currently) for concern. And anyway, once the share actually CLOSES above BLUE, we'll regard the Long Term influence as coming from 20.5p and beyond.

Published 08/08/17 

BARCLAYS (LSE:BARC) Opting to swap an office chair for a large red exercise ball provided an entirely new perspective when looking for bounce points on shares! It also made Jo Whileys evening Radio2 show fraught with danger, due to her choice of multiple Blur tracks. Let's just say, when you can bounce, you bounce. Exercise without effort.

And this brings Barclays neatly into the frame.

It's not bouncing but then again, it's not dropping either. Instead, it's behaving as if the price were sitting on a bouncy ball while listening to Radio4...

We've drawn a plethora of lines on the chart in an attempt to confuse the issue. The Dashed Red & Blue lines represent the real Up Trend and Down Trends, the solid Red & Blue lines represent what has happened since each trend break occurred. Additionally, we've painted a couple of circles at the points of trend break.

It cannot be stressed sufficiently this isn't 'Technical Gibberish' but instead an attempt to inject some common sense into market movements since April. The two circled areas tell us Barclays share price broke its ruling uptrend at 220p, then exceeded its ruling downtrend at 207p. Given the net effect was 13p, we regard the share price as effectively flatlining and not worthy of any immediate attention.

Instead, we need use the pretty picture to define the point we'd be comfortable deciding Barclays price is actually about to show direction with integrity. By drawing a couple of solid RED & BLUE lines, we discover the share price currently needs below RED - 200p - to suggest panic or above BLUE - 213p - to suggest undiluted optimism. Our preference when a share is proving stodgy such as Barclays is to insist we see the price actually CLOSE above (or below) a trend. In other words, if BARCLAYS manages to close above 213p or trades intraday above 214p, the last high, we'd be confident it is about to head to 228p initially with secondary a rather more useful 238p.

On the down side, a break below 200p would prove alarming, stuffing the share into a region where 170p becomes very possible as a bounce point. If 170 should break, we'd almost insist the share exhibit some bounce potential by 165 as the consequences below such a point are quite dreadful - potentially. If trading this, either CLOSURE below 200p would justify alarm or alternately, intraday traffic below 194p.

For now, like the other retail banks, we find it difficult to express any confidence as to market direction and our usual rule, "if it ain't goin' up, it's goin' down" cannot safely be applied due to its behaviour against both "real" historical trends.

Published 07/08/17 

LLOYDS BANK (LSE:LLOY) We've stopped thinking of the 3 UK retail banks as 'clown' shares. Instead, perhaps referring to them as similar to rabbit droppings makes more sense, little balls of stuff which stick together and refuse to roll anywhere. RBS proved amusing last week, creating a 'no-brainer' scenario for a near term trade but alas, has moved back into position beside the other two balls of stuff.

The funny thing, possibly due to RBS' influence (never thought we'd write that) Lloyds actually managed to outperform slightly and now exists in a situation where trades above just 67.15p are supposed to generate near term growth toward 68.89p initially. While such an ambition isn't exactly exciting, if the share were somehow to trade above 68.89p, it ticks the first box in a series of argument favouring continued moves toward 73.5p in the foreseeable future.

In fact, if we're honest, it could even prove to be 76.5p.

During 2016, we often waxed lyrical about GaGa movements - GapDown, GapUp, and Lloyds certainly experienced these manipulation movements earlier this year. We've tended ignore this signal, 'cos during 2017 this particular manoeuvre has NOT proven to be a reliable indicator of anything.

For now, if a slow down is on the cards - relatively unlikely given the state of the FTSE - the share requires slither below RED at 65.2 to suggest coming weakness toward 63.5, perhaps even 57 if the market expresses a sense of humour.

Published 06/08/17 

FTSE FOR THE WEEK (FTSE:UKX) As usual, the Scottish summer highlights a need for a product which remains uninvented. A recent incident meant T&T's lawn was uncut for three weeks and, in the process, grew almost 20cm. While summer in July / August usually means incessant rain, it also carries a suspicion the rain is seeded with steroids to make the grass grow. The mystery product: Green Growth Inhibitor.

Who knows, it may also work for a certain political party too which always receives more prominence than their vote share seems to suggest.

As for the FTSE, we'd tended expect the usual holiday period lassitude inhibit growth on the FTSE but we're starting to sing from a different songbook due to market behaviour in the last week. The immediate situation is we'd require seeing the FTSE slip below 7368 to cancel the prospect of continued growth ahead to an initial 7580 points with secondary, if bettered, at a confident sounding 7675 points.

To indulge in a little bit of common sense, when we scribble these ambitions on a chart, it appears 7580 is a region which makes sense whereas (obviously) 7675 represents a brave new world for the FTSE and if we opt to apply normal market behaviour to these target levels, sufficient excuse exists around 7580 to expect some stutters. But if the FTSE manages close above this level, 7675 shall prove difficult to avoid.

Every year, we are impressed at how well the markets behave due to politicians all being in their favourite campsites or caravan parks, furiously mingling with normal people to learn the publics concerns prior to return of parliament... Oink!

Even below 7405 would suffice to generate concern, this taking the FTSE into a region where weakness toward 7355 becomes possible with secondary, when broken, at 7250.

If we choose to revert to our favourite "if it were a share" stance, it appears we should embrace 7675 as believable.

Published 03/08/17 

FTSE FOR FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX)  There's a few instances where we'd really love to write something like, "you're on your own, we're clueless!" In fairness, we never hesitate to use such language for our private clients as it'd be stupid to pretend something, when real money is involved. And if the Gov'nr of the Bank of England is reading, why not pay attention to this principle?

Seriously, issuing a negative statement rather than admit a completely new set of circumstances makes the future impossible to predict ranks as crass foolishness. In our book, anyway. Though we did experience a warm glow when the GBPEUR relationship foundered to 1.1052 as we'd predicted it on June 20th, 2017. (link here) Our actual drop target was 1.1061

To return to the concept of admitting the presence of a vacant clue, Friday is looking quite difficult. The preceding week has been strange with drop triggers failing to reach targets across most index' whereas upward triggers tend reach their initial target, even better it a bit. And then lose interest in proceedings for the rest of the session. France, Germany, the UK, and USA all have made us victims in this crime. Perhaps we should remember it's August and The Holidays, a time when the market will sometimes exhibit upward creep but rarely with any great strength.

And so, we're not terribly happy but shall concede anything on the FTSE above 7485 near term is supposed to provoke 7510 points next. Visually it's not an impossible scenario as this would place the FTSE against the prior high in July. But if 7510 is bettered, we're not exactly salivating about the secondary at 7540. There are a couple of other indicators which may assist in providing a boost.

Firstly, the retail banks are all attempting some sort of upward movement. RBS in particular should prove interesting should the share price manage to actually CLOSE a session above 260p as it's not difficult to imagine a future scenario toward 300p.

Secondly, BRENT CRUDE has broken above a long term downtrend since 2014 and while the price requires better 55 to make us confident of real growth, the threat is now present.

If the FTSE intends trouble, below 7393 should be interesting as it permits near term weakness to 7376 initially with secondary, if broken, at 7340 points.

Published 02/08/17 

JOHNSTON PRESS (LSE:JPR) & The DOW JONES (DOWi:DJI)  A bouncing bomb was recently retrieved from local waters here in Argyll and offloaded at the pier outside, to take its place in a museum. It transpires the iconic scene from The Dambusters where the bomb was first filmed working came from military footage, literally just along the coast. And of course, bouncing bombs are effectively our theme for this week which is where Johnston Press comes into view.

Over the last few years, JPR has experienced some pretty tough times - at least where the share price is concerned - and currently resides in a zone where the share needs bounce above 18.98p currently (BLUE) to convince some recovery is happening. Therefore, BLUE gives us a reasonable price target should it actually conform to our rules and bounce from bottom.

Where is bottom?

A bit of a nuisance factor rears its head. From a Big Picture perspective, we're to accept 9p as 'ultimate bottom' but due to a plethora of manipulation gaps, this might actually be 7.5p. We cannot calculate any sane drop target below 7.5p which isn't prefaced with minus signs. Therefore, the proposal (aka hope) is for a bounce from somewhere between 7.5 and 9 which could reach the BLUE line.

At time of writing, the share is already trading at 10.5p, so if any latent strength is present, anytime now for a bounce would be good.

Perhaps, like the movie, it's worth watching. But should it close below 7.5p, we're stuffed for numbers!

The DOW JONES (DOWi:DJI) there comes a point in every young mans life where he visits the privacy of the bathroom, accompanied by a measuring tape. And often, no matter how often he measures, he will find despite the onset of puberty his height remains stubbornly at 91 inches. Classmates are now towering above him and in a personal instance, he becomes the dwarf of a family of 6 footers.

Sometimes, things can only get so high and no higher.

Forty years later, during a routine medical, a nurse casually writes 92 inches in the record, mentioning it's unusual for someone to grow upward in their 50's. But it can happen. She had to wait while I frantically text messaged family some good news.

We're starting to suspect the DOW JONES shall prove the index equivalent of 91 inches and with 22,000 points proving a barrier, it will become completely obvious the market can grow no higher. Aside from the fact, it CAN go higher. It's just that from our mathematical models, we're currently tending run out of targets above the 22,000 level.

When this sort of thing happens with shares, we start looking for early warning the market desires a stock to grow above calculated levels. When we see a share price being manipulated at the open of trade, the "Gap Up" method, it gives a clear signal of human intervention to over-rule software intention. In the case of the DOW JONES, during JULY the index experienced FIVE instances of manipulation at the open - on the 11-12th, the 24-25th, the 25-26th, the 30-31st, and the 31-1st Aug.  Collectively this bunch of gaps add a theoretical 363 points to the mathematical high of 22,033.

The conclusion is painful. Many of the internet discussion forum crowd have come to regard 22,000 on the DOW as a sacred barrier, something the market shall prove incapable of bettering. Our worry comes when we add the manipulation values as it generates a maximum computed high of 22,396 on the immediate movement cycle. In fact, were we to trawl the value of each and every manipulation gap for 2017, this number risks being substantially higher as February, April, and May all show signs of tampering.

We've mentioned a few times recently our tendency to ignore gaps. But when "the computer starts to run out of numbers" we've also learned these missing building blocks invariably prove important, if only to confirm a price can go higher.

Another thing to remember, the worldwide betting markets. Once punters become utterly convinced the DOW JONES cannot better the 22,000 level (it's actually 22,033 points), a raft of bets will be placed, speculating on the guaranteed and certain reversal of the index.

Even spread betting companies will be rubbing their hands in glee as they look forward to paying out a shedload of money. Perhaps to spread bet companies - or rather the companies who insure them - will endeavour to resist a tsunami of reversals, at least until such time there's sufficient cause for a market reversal.

We're not inclined to look  at any reversal as being potentially serious unless the index slips below 21,650 points - the level of the immediate uptrend.

While producing this report, the DOW actually bettered our 22033 briefly and again, was gapped upward at the open of trading,