Trends And Targets

Barclays, #Brent, #DAX Our previous review of Barclays (link here) had a pretty miserable expectation, should the share price break below our drop target. Unfortunately, this has now happened and there’s the slimmest of margins inhibiting it opening the gates of gloom. The problem number is currently 148.82p.

Absolutely nothing to do with Barclays. Google News algorithms can be odd!

In the event Barclays closes a session below 148.823p, we’re looking for traffic down to an initial 136p. To be blunt, if it even trades below 147p, it shall be viewed as entering this reversal cycle. Our secondary, if 136p breaks, calculates at 114p. It’s rather worrying to note, we’ve two quite distinct arguments suggesting Barclays share price intends take a visit down to the 114p level eventually. About the only encouraging signal left is fairly simple. The share has NOT yet closed below the RED uptrend since 2009, hence our fascination with 148.823p. However, the share price has broken below this trend during the last two sessions, so we’d be far from confident the trend line shall hold.

There’s obviously the risk of the somewhat confused series of political results from the EU election entering the fray, if any of the mainstream politicians actually can decide what they stand for. At present, Barclays requires exceed 165p to convince us it has exited the drop zone to 136p eventually. Visually, there’s quite a strong suggestion the price will head to 136p, execute some sort of short lived bounce, then eventually wander downward to 114p.

It needs exceed 166p to signal our misery is misplaced, allowing recovery to an initial 174p. If bettered, secondary is at 191p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:10:58PM	BRENT	68.85	67.27	66.57	65.76	68.7	69.05	69.335	70.38	67.4
10:12:57PM	GOLD	1285.53
10:29:38PM	FTSE	7287.92
10:31:37PM	FRANCE	5338
10:38:08PM	GERMANY	12067.52	12014	11974.5	11925	12088	12123	12162.5	12242	12024
10:40:32PM	US500	2830.47
10:46:12PM	DOW	25648
10:51:32PM	NASDAQ	7311.49
10:53:37PM	JAPAN	21212

24/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7277 points. Change of 0.64%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,443,076,043 a change of -8.12%

#Gold #SP500 As we live through the final days of a failed political career, it’s easy to imagine the abrupt downward surge on the FTSE was a direct result of the UK’s “Strong and Stable (aka, Weak and Shoogly)” governance. We’re fairly confident drops experienced on Thursday had nothing to do with the Prime Minister.

It all goes back to a market movement, worldwide, on Wednesday. Sharp eyed readers viewing our evening UK Futures noted we used the word “Shambles” to describe the previous days results. Our preference, obviously, is to use “Success” or ” ‘cess”, denoting whether one or two targets were achieved. We only employ “Shambles” when market behaviour makes absolutely no sense. Only once the day was over and tempers calmed did we start to suspect what had happened.

At 13:26 on Wednesday, a whole bunch of indices both in Europe and the USA dropped, for a couple of seconds, below levels we’d designed as key trigger levels to open SHORT positions. Once these short positions triggered, the indices immediately reversed direction, spending the following 90 minutes climbing above logical Stop Loss levels for each and every one of the SHORT positions.

Thus, the trades would be cancelled and traders left out of pocket. A co-ordinated effort, internationally, reminded us sharply why we avoid comment on Forex unless from a Big Picture perspective. This sort of market behaviour, in our opinion, is rather lacking in ethics. The following private note was included on Wednesday evening for our clients;

“With shares, I tend regard this as a clear warning signal for a coming drop with the market opting to trigger a bunch of trades with attractive stop loss levels. This essentially clears out the folk who were poised to take advantage of coming reversals.”

Markets dropped sharply on Thursday, as feared. But behaviour on Wednesday was clearly designed to wipe out SHORT positions, prior to the drop!

Our tantrum over, what’s next?

The FTSE actually dropped further than we’d like. It closed Thursday at 7230 points and now lurks with the threat of weakness below 7210 bringing travel down to 7160 points next. Our secondary, should 7156 break, calculates at 7091 points.

If triggered, the tightest stop level looks like 7270 points. But given market behaviour as listed previously, we’d prefer wider still at 7301 points.

We’ve an obvious disparity between a drop target 7160 and trigger level of 7156. This is fairly simple, due to the FTSE being manipulated (gapped) downward by 14 points at the open on Thursday morning. Essentially, this nonsense confuses our software.

What happens if the FTSE exceeds 7270 points? Initially we’re looking for 7300 points. Our secondary, if such a point exceeded, calculates at 7375 points. If triggered, the tightest stop is at 7210 points.

Perhaps it is also worth mentioning the index (somehow) remains above the 2019 Red uptrend on the chart below. We’re far from comfortable this state of affairs shall continue.

On a brighter note, it’s the Monaco GP this weekend, possibly the most boring race on the F1 calendar yet one which makes compulsive viewing in the hope something happens. Have a good weekend.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:25:51PM	BRENT	67.02									Success
10:28:00PM	GOLD	1284	1272.82	1270.5	1265	1279	1287.25	1291	1298	1279	Success
10:31:18PM	FTSE	7233.72									Success
10:33:56PM	FRANCE	5284.7									Success
10:37:14PM	GERMANY	11948									‘cess
10:39:15PM	US500	2821.12	2810	2800.5	2770	2835	2845	2850.5	2866	2822	Success
10:43:26PM	DOW	25485.8									Success
10:45:47PM	NASDAQ	7308.12									Success
10:48:17PM	JAPAN	20874									Success

23/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7231 points. Change of -1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,924,231,411 a change of -15.02%

RBS #SP500 #NK225 In our monthly visit to “The Bank that likes to say ‘Doh!’ “, the star of the clown sector of the FTSE has performed pretty much as expected. Our prior report (link here) was notable in lacking any confidence for an immediate share price recovery and now, we require to examine what the break of our initial target risks?

With the share price breaking below 219.5p, it enhances the probability of any near term bounce being short lived. When we review the immediate downtrend, the demand is for anything above 228 apparently suggesting the speed of descent has eased, allowing recovery to an initial 235p. This, while fairly useful, unfortunately ensures the share price remains in the drop zone with 202p offering the chance of a probable “real” bottom.

Only above 238 shall we start taking any recovery seriously as this will trash the immediate drop prospects and take the share into a region where 248 presents a target.

For now, below 216 still suggests 202p as providing a “bottom” but secondary, if broken, comes along at 177p eventually.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:23:28PM	BRENT	70.09									Success
9:25:30PM	GOLD	1273.82
9:47:24PM	FTSE	7321.61									Shambles
9:49:02PM	FRANCE	5368.7
9:55:30PM	GERMANY	12149.72									Shambles
9:58:55PM	US500	2855.82	2845	2836	2824	2865	2867	2872.5	2881	2850
10:00:59PM	DOW	25776
10:09:44PM	NASDAQ	7416.22									Shambles
10:11:40PM	JAPAN	21226	21190	21156.5	21075	21313	21359	21412	21486	21242

22/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7334 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,971,356,122 a change of 24.95%

Lloyds Bank #Cac40 #Nasdaq UK Bank share prices continue to adhere to the Elephant sex joke. If you’re successful, it takes 18 months for anything to happen. If unsuccessful, get trampled to death. When we last reviewed Lloyds, we speculated it was probably about to get stuck in a trading range between 57.5 and 63p. Guess what?

In the period since our last analysis, the share broke our 63p trigger level, hit our initial 60p target (crucially breaking it on the first downward surge) and despite a low of 59.2p, Lloyds remains with the threat of a bottom around the 57.5p level. But it’s proving painfully slow but is probably presenting a safe trading target, regardless of whether opting for a Long or Short position. Regardless of choice, entering around the midway level in the 60p area, then waiting a while to take some profit, looks a viable strategy. For a Long position, a stop can be emplaced around 56p, for a Short position, a stop looks like 64p. As the chart shows, the difficult part of any trade looks like patience.

We’re actually (a bit) surprised it hasn’t hit the 57.5p level yet but for some reason, banking shares appear attuned to whatever Brexit music is playing politically. If this is indeed the case, the big picture presently suggests 41p is exerting a long term attraction eventually, doubtless requiring the correct level of political incompetence to sufficiently damage the share price. Indeed, if the political will exists to really trash Lloyds share price, “ultimate bottom” now calculates down at 26p.

If we opt to assume the worst for the near term, apparently weakness on Lloyds now below 59.2p should drive the share back to 57.5p initially. We’d hope for a rebound at such a level but we must admit, we can now calculate a secondary at 56p.

Should we attempt a positive stance, the price requires better 65.3p to confirm a rise is possible, this triggering potential movement to 68p initially with secondary, if bettered, at a game changing 77p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:50:16PM	BRENT	71.42
9:52:59PM	GOLD	1274.91
9:55:06PM	FTSE	7355.8									‘cess
9:57:33PM	FRANCE	5387	5345	5330	5306	5380	5403	5427	5459	5348
10:01:01PM	GERMANY	12160.94									Success
10:03:16PM	US500	2865.17
10:06:02PM	DOW	25881									‘cess
10:08:29PM	NASDAQ	7456.54	7387	7362.5	7325	7456	7475	7509.5	7563	7412
10:11:21PM	JAPAN	21365									‘cess

21/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7328 points. Change of 0.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,579,496,230 a change of 2.76%

Ford #Gold #SP500 It’s not often we have to warn a report may contain ‘spite’ but Ford, announcing 7,000 job cuts, reminded of another reason we utterly despise the company and their products. The problem was a car purchased for the dogs as our usually wet and muddy Golden Retrievers tend trash a vehicle interior. We bought a Ford C-Max as a worthy pooch transport.

Cumulatively, the thing managed remain roadworthy for just 2 out of 8 months, a series of electronic problems tending ensure it never could be trusted to complete a journey. Even dealerships admitted bewilderment, when C-Max electronics decide to play games. We gave up and sold the thing with Ford finally winning the accolade for a real dog of a car. It will be the only Ford ever purchased, such was the level of trouble. We wonder, in this day and age, how could a car maker fail to implement reliable electronics, given Japan have been doing it since the 1980’s? (However, it was nice seeing it report 72mpg at motorway speeds!)

Thus, our approach to the company share price is tinged with distaste but to be fair, there’s quite a lot to dislike. Despite strong recovery since the trauma of 2009, the share price faltered and is now presenting a distinctly dodgy picture. The big problem is the Red line on the chart, currently around 8.1 dollars. Weakness below this level looks capable of driving the price down to 6.29 next. While a bounce from 6.29 is possible, in the absence of a miracle we’d suspect it short lived as secondary, should 6.29 break, is down at 1 dollar. Visually this will represent a return to match the lows of the market crash!

To get out of trouble as we already suspect 6.29 shall appear, the price requires better 11.75 as this should trigger some recovery to an initial 13.25. The chart tends suggest, should such a level be attained, some hesitation can be expected as it appears a glass ceiling awaits. Only with closure above 13.25 dare we accept a secondary longer term calculation of  16.80.

For now, similar to our gladly unmissed Ford C-Max, we distrust the company share price but shall take an interest should it achieve the 6.29 level. And who knows, if the 1 dollar mark ever appears, considering buying Ford would not be out of the question!

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:49:34PM	BRENT	71.54
10:52:15PM	GOLD	1278.38	1273	1268	1263.5	1279	1279	1283	1291	1274	‘cess
10:54:52PM	FTSE	7313									‘cess
10:57:31PM	FRANCE	5358.5									Success
11:00:26PM	GERMANY	12057.18									Success
11:03:05PM	US500	2848.38	2838	2830.5	2810	2855	2872	2880	2887	2853	‘cess
11:06:17PM	DOW	25744									‘cess
11:09:13PM	NASDAQ	7400									Success
11:12:07PM	JAPAN	21176									‘cess

20/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7310 points. Change of -0.52%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,429,558,447 a change of -17.82%

Thomas Cook #Brent #DAX Headlines such as below, “what are your rights if…” are rarely encouraging when viewing the future for a company share price. Oddly, despite recent trauma, we’re not entirely convinced Thomas Cook have finished their crash landing!

The big problem we have is circled on the chart. When the share price was gapped below the uptrend since 2012, this moved the price into a region where the big picture calculated provided an “ultimate” target bottom of -18p, an obviously impossible number. We’re forced to review movements since the price was manipulated below the RED uptrend in the hope of finding a level which may prove to be bottom, a point where it will be reasonable to hope for a bounce. At present, the signals suggest continued traffic below 10p points at an initial 7p. If broken, secondary is a hopeful bottom by 4p.

It’s worth remembering that circled area on the chart.

This was a clear indication the stock market wanted TCG down in price with the suggestion the good times were now over. The price will need something approaching a miracle to return it above RED on the chart. Working on the basis a rebound can be hoped, if only due to the volume of folk thinking “TCG is cheap”, any bounce from the 4p to 7p zone proving capable of exceeding 13p should have sufficient strength to reach 17p. If bettered, secondary is at 22p and we’d need stir the tea leaves again to gauge possibilities above such a level.

For the present, Thomas Cook are showing some pretty dire potentials and the Big Picture scenario with -18p is a pretty major concern.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
6:54:27PM	BRENT	71.59	71.24	70.59	69.82	72.42	72.64	73.045	74.5	71.64
6:57:01PM	GOLD	1278.06									Success
7:07:14PM	FTSE	7340.44
7:09:07PM	FRANCE	5419.8
7:11:39PM	GERMANY	12202.6	12147	12095.5	12021	12242	12272	12292.5	12453	12180	Sorry
7:13:36PM	US500	2860.22
7:15:25PM	DOW	25776.9
7:35:48PM	NASDAQ	7499.75
7:37:19PM	JAPAN	21207									Shambles

 

17/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7348 points. Change of -0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,607,288,345 a change of 21.38%

FTSE, #SP500 #GOLD We had a stunning result against the S&P, one so impressive we didn’t notice until someone emailed. Our report in March (link) detailed an upper target of 2954 for the S&P. It hit 2954.13 on the first of May, carefully going no higher since. How could we be so accurate, 49 days before the event?

It was interesting, on the initial surge to 2884, the market actually bettered our target, reaching 2885.25 before a slight fall back. Our rule of thumb is always, if an initial target is bettered, we expect the secondary to be achieved. Recently, we modified this thinking, adding “on the first surge” as an important part of the scenario. From our perspective, beating 2884 (on the first surge) made 2954 inevitable. The situation remains, quite forcibly, of short positions being in jeopardy if 2954 bettered. The S&P shall find it difficult to restrain itself from growth.

It’s important to remember we are discussing the S&P 500 index and NOT SP500 Futures. The Futures market will generally be a few points adrift from the actual index.

The situation now suggests growth above 2954 should attempt an initial 3003 points. Secondary, if bettered, calculates at 3044 points. In fact, we shall regard the long term influence as coming from a distant looking 3278 points.

Any attempt at a slowdown requires the index to fall below 2816 points, though to be honest, we’d prefer the 2800 level be broken to convince us of trouble. In such a scenario, our initial drop target is at 2720 points with secondary, if broken, at 2645. We would expect a reasonable bounce from the 2645 level if it makes an appearance.

FTSE for FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) Maintaining the theme of success, our private report to clients at lunchtime Thursday proposed 7352 as an initial target. The day high (and closing point) was 7353.51, so we are supposed to believe the FTSE is due some further recovery.

Some slight doubts appear as generally a price will mess around for a while at an initial target, almost as it it wants to confirm this was a correct trend level. We call this “stutters” and will not be surprised if the UK market stutters a bit on Friday. However, the scenario now exists of movement beyond 7354 suggesting coming travel up to 7377 points next. Secondary, if bettered, calculates at 7409 points.

We can calculate the tightest “sane” stop at 7257 points. But realistically, below 7318 points would cause raised eyebrows, if such a movement occurred following an upward trigger.

If we review converse arguments, the index requires weaken below 7257 before we dare take any reversal seriously. Such a triggering motion allows travel down to an initial 7224 points with secondary, if broken on an initial drop, at 7181 points. If triggered, the tightest stop is at 7308 points.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:30:30PM	BRENT	72.29	71.24	70.6			72.87	73.115			‘cess
10:33:31PM	GOLD	1287.3	1285	1282			1289	1291			Success
10:35:41PM	FTSE	7352.75	7294	7273.5			7362	7373			‘cess
10:37:36PM	FRANCE	5438.5	5357	5341.5			5454	5468.5			‘cess
10:40:56PM	GERMANY	12289	12152	12094			12319	12345.75			Success
10:44:08PM	US500	2877.97	2837	2813.5			2893	2904			‘cess
10:46:56PM	DOW	25874.8	25655	25598			25961	26057			Success
10:50:47PM	NASDAQ	7591.82	7465	7433.225			7629	7681.75			Success
10:53:20PM	JAPAN	21242	20937	20836			21336	21412.75

16/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7353 points. Change of 0.78%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,443,678,084 a change of -13.14%