Trends And Targets

#Nasdaq #France The big question; was Boris creeping around Saudi oilfields last weekend with a box of matches? A Monday without a Boris/Brexit panic was almost enjoyable as the heat was taken off the UK’s much admired leader for a couple of hours. It didn’t last, and oddly neither has the Saudi panic. Without doubt, BJ has provided more entertainment in a few weeks than Theresa May did during her entire tenure.

The Crude Oil price explosion hasn’t really happened. There was an absurd spike up to the 70’s when the Futures markets opened last Sunday night but as sanity prevailed in the light of day, nothing has happened (so far) to either justify nor sustain the upward surge. In fact, quite the opposite may prove true. At present, it’s trading around the 64 dollar mark and need only drip below 62.6 to give concern. A move such as this looks capable of triggering weakness to 60.39 initially. Worse, if our secondary calculates at 57.6 dollars and returns the price to the level it’s being languishing through July & August. This will also challenge the uptrend for 2019!

For any near term bounce of Brent to become interesting, allegedly above 64.50 should bring an initial 66.10 dollars. In itself, a pretty tame and useless movement but one we’d use to measure strength of sentiment. In the event 66.1 is exceeded, we’d expect a surge to 69 dollars next which will suggest some strength. Realistically, it needs above the previous high of 70.6 dollars before we’d dare feel we’re witnessed anything other than the panic reaction by a jittery market.

FTSE for FRIDAY The last 4 days managed to lack any real excitement. In fact, this week opened at 7367 points and closed Thursday at 7356 points, an 11 point difference. It’s not even worth pointing to what occurred in between as the 80 point range has been wholly artificial, created when the FTSE was marked down at the open on 2 days. The immediate situation tends mirror reality as movement now above 7373 should bring a surge to an utterly amazing 7384 points. If bettered, secondary is at 7411 points.  The tightest stop in such a scenario is at 7336 points.

It can be assumed we’re not terribly impressed with the immediate potentials. To get real, the UK index needs above 7444 points as a further 100 point ride is expected.

In the event of weakness below 7336, we’re look at reversal to an initial 7325 points. If broken, secondary calculates as a more useful 7292 points. Should the UK manage below such a level, it could easily fall sharply to 7228 before any form of real bounce is expected.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:12:07PM	BRENT	64.02									‘cess
10:13:54PM	GOLD	1499.49									‘cess
10:19:56PM	FTSE	7322.25									‘cess
10:22:26PM	FRANCE	5647.7	5641	5631.175	5610.7	5654	5667	5675	5685	5636	Success
10:24:45PM	GERMANY	12425.68									‘cess
10:31:51PM	US500	3005.17									‘cess
10:34:58PM	DOW	27079									‘cess
10:38:28PM	NASDAQ	7896.37	7828	7808.5	7761	7917	7934	7959	8016	7856	‘cess
10:46:47PM	JAPAN	22094									Success

 

19/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7356 points. Change of 0.57%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,621,323,285 a change of 3.9%

#DAX #JAPAN We’ve managed almost a year, since last covering Tesco. In December, we’d suggested it critical for the price to exceed 200p as it was teetering on the edge of an abyss. Somehow or other, the share started 2019 above this crucial level, doing okay in the period since. Just okay, not particularly brilliant.

At present it’s trading around the 235p level and once again, we’ll start with the dangers. Below 210p and reversal to an initial 193p looks probable. This will break the uptrend since 2016 and open the doors for a dangerous secondary at 182p. It’s dangerous, because it will represent a “lower low” below the trend with 150p presenting itself as a possible bottom for some time in the future.

For now, absolutely nothing justifies this gloomy outlook!

Instead, we’re able to calculate a trigger level at 244p. Closure above this point shall make upward travel to an initial 257p quite difficult to avoid. Better still, if exceeded our secondary calculates at 301p and a potential challenge against the long term downtrend which started 12 years ago!

Similar to many shares, Tesco is effectively marching on the spot at present, the market doubtless awaiting to see if Brexit comes with fangs or opportunities. In-house, our inclination is to watch for warning signs. As a result, we’ve circled a dip below RED at the end of December last year. This innocent little movement ‘proved’ the uptrend was not sacred and could be broken. Normally, this alone would make us suspect any excuse for negative market conditions will ensure a future break will suffer very sharp, very fast, reversals.

Unlike the experience of shopping in their stores, at present Tesco almost looks promising.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:55:48PM	BRENT	63.12
9:57:42PM	GOLD	1493.71									Success
9:59:54PM	FTSE	7317.2
10:01:56PM	FRANCE	5633.8									‘cess
10:03:44PM	GERMANY	12418.11	12352	12326	12289	12419	12437	12443.5	12491	12352
10:05:33PM	US500	3006.77									Success
10:09:25PM	DOW	27158									‘cess
10:13:03PM	NASDAQ	7899.12									Success
10:14:59PM	JAPAN	22077	21909	21866.5	21792	22030	22090	22105.5	22171	21941

18/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7314 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,410,113,434 a change of -11.15%

#FTSE #SP500 Our previous report on Sirius lacked enthusiasm. Sometimes, share price moves leave a bad taste and Sirius was starting to remind of a poisonous AIM share called Vialogy. That nasty little company started to exhibit all the symptoms of a board who were happy to treat investors as their own little piggy bank. By issuing additional shares for in-house options, the number of shares became diluted and of course, staff members at Vialogy would simply dump their awarded options and pocket the proceeds. The share no longer trades.

Obviously, Sirius as a respected member of the FTSE250 will surely be monitored more closely than Vialogy, so perhaps our cynical attitude is completely unfair. Unfortunately, as a respected member of the “250”, we fear they shall opt for the next page of the playbook. This will involve a share split, potentially at 10:1 ratio and allow the price to once again look respectable as it multiplies by 10. Alas, folk who purchased in 2018 at 40p while they absorbed all the positive sentiment in chatrooms will be doomed to await Sirius growing to 4 quid in the future, just to get their money back.

Offhand, we cannot think of a single instance where this has actually happened…

Alas, Sirius price movements, despite some very strong sentiment amongst internet discussion forums, has been “feeling” similar to Vialogy, hence our lukewarm approach to its future. Yesterday, 17th September, the market enacted a painful “gotcha”, one which doubtless ensures many loyal investors (who’ve been living for the next positive press release) now are trapped with their funds going on a prolonged holiday in the absence of miracles.

Our “ultimate bottom”, the point at which we can no longer calculate below is at 1.18p.

To arrest the rate of decline, the share price presently requires better Blue on the chart, 12p at time of writing. Unfortunately, it seems more likely we shall see weakness below 3.67 drive the price to 3.33p next, a point where some sort of bounce can be hoped. Secondary, if broken, is at 1.18p. The share price requires exceed 5.74p before there’s an initial glimmer of hope a bounce is serious as 6.5p becomes the initial target. Above this point and we’d need stir the tea leaves again as there’s a chance any bounce is liable to be fairly useful.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:26:30PM	BRENT	63.58									‘cess
9:28:38PM	GOLD	1501.49									Shambles
9:31:26PM	FTSE	7316.25	7290	7262	7217	7350	7352	7364	7388	7301	‘cess
9:46:19PM	FRANCE	5617									Shambles
9:53:08PM	GERMANY	12382									‘cess
9:59:16PM	US500	3005.67	2990	2985	2978	3001	3006	3009.5	3016	2994	‘cess
10:14:46PM	DOW	27115
10:16:41PM	NASDAQ	7894.37									‘cess
10:19:53PM	JAPAN	22037									‘cess

17/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7320 points. Change of -0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,089,337,683 a change of 3.99%

#Gold #Nasdaq While we were panicked about the price of Brent, due to some hysterical price moves during the early hours of Monday, we should perhaps have focused on Gold & Bitcoin. Despite Brent Futures indulging in frantic spasms, neither Bitcoin nor Gold were doing anything particularly interesting. This, alone, should have warned the Saudi crisis was probably another case of media hype overtaking reality.

As Monday developed, a clearer idea of the impact on oil production emerged and still, neither of the alternate havens did anything useful. Gradually, we started suspect whatever had happened in the Gulf not actually causing real panic in the marketplace. Both Gold and Bitcoin actually started reversals, making us question the future for Bitcoin. The phoney currency has been looking useful just a month ago yet has failed trigger upward movements.

The immediate situation with Bitcoin appears straightforward. The price need only slip below 9850 to enter a reversal cycle to an initial 9218 dollars. Despite some sort of bounce being probable at such a level, if broken, our secondary calculates at 7220 dollars. Visually, this matches the lows of May this year and will be expected to provoke a real rebound.

Presently trading around 10,140, Bitcoin needs above 10510 to give hope an upward surge is coming. In theory, this should trigger movement up to an initial 10756 with secondary, if bettered, a longer term 11,662 dollars.

For now, if we fall back to our “if it ain’t goin’ up” philosophy, we suspect it intends reversal.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:45:44PM	BRENT	67.22
9:47:32PM	GOLD	1498.81	1495	1491	1484	1507	1507	1511.5	1517	1496	Success
9:49:00PM	FTSE	7334.15								7316
9:50:31PM	FRANCE	5607.3								5609	Success
9:53:31PM	GERMANY	12409.26								12362	‘cess
9:55:36PM	US500	3000.92								2991	Success
9:57:55PM	DOW	27101.9								27053	Success
10:00:29PM	NASDAQ	7861.75	7803	7789.5	7727	7870	7870	7882	7918	7830	Success
10:02:42PM	JAPAN	21934		21681	21542	21980	21980	22029.5	22108	21879	‘cess

 

16/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7321 points. Change of -0.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,855,486,633 a change of 3.71%

#Dax With Fireworks Night coming early for Saudi, there’s a fair chance our recent gloomy outlook for #Brent is about to be turned on its head. With the Kingdom losing 1/2 its production capacity, early news it hopes to regain 33% on what’s left still leaves a huge hole in production and it’ll be reasonable to expect oil prices to react.

At present, Brent is trading around the 60 dollar mark, needing above the immediate downtrend at 63.45 to indicate something new is happening. In such an event, we anticipate some moves to an initial 65.80 dollars. Perhaps of more interest, if such a level bettered, we’re calculating 69.15 as “secondary” though, to be honest, the price of the stuff could accelerate to 73.92 and challenge the highs of April this year.

Above 73.92 and we’ll need take a further hard look at the tea leaves!

The reason for this is slightly strange but here goes. If a price exceeds the high achieved, once an up-trend has been broken, there’s a more than reasonable chance the trend break has failed, therefore giving the price an expectation of further recovery. Or in plain English, our doom and gloom expectation risks turning into a load of bollocks. In the case of Brent, if it now were to exceed 77 dollars for any reason, a cycle toward 111 dollars is a reasonable longer term expectation.

For now, to justify concern in another direction, the price of Brent requires drip below 56.50 dollars. (if we are to trust the revised Grey uptrend since 2016)

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
12:01:16PM	BRENT	59.7	58.53	57.11	55.02	60.1	60.36	60.96	61.77	59.11
12:04:40PM	GOLD	1489									Shambles
2:05:12PM	FTSE	7335									‘cess
2:11:45PM	FRANCE	5646.5
2:14:14PM	GERMANY	12457	12400	12386	12349	12463	12497	12514	12542	12445
2:16:34PM	US500	3006.12
2:18:18PM	DOW	27214
2:20:16PM	NASDAQ	7884.39
2:48:11PM	JAPAN	22054									Success

 

13/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7367 points. Change of 0.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,645,792,852 a change of -3.82%

#DAX #DOW #Nasdaq The markets appear to be ignoring UK Boris. Since the Falklands, one of the favourite toys in beleaguered UK PM’s playbook has been to go to war with someone. Our current PM, in conflict with Scotland, all the MP’s, and now, The Queen, has changed the game. He hasn’t actually declared a conflict yet, perhaps this being the reason for FTSE stability.

Firstly, CannTrust, a cannabis focussed share which is getting a fair bit of coverage in forums as a “cheap” share. Presently trading around 1.61 dollars, the price requires above 2 dollars to convince it has a reasonable future. Instead, more likely is weakness below 1.57 risking further reversal to an initial 1.04 dollars. Worse, if broken, bottom is at 0.23 dollars, this being a point we cannot calculate below. Despite the popularity of cannabis shares, we’d prefer advocating caution with this one as it’s liable to leave investors “walking funny” with the wrong sort of cannabis experience!

Our ever popular FTSE for FRIDAY worries us a little, because our bias is toward some upward travel. Given UK media coverage of the British PM, we appear to have a ‘Trump like’ character, only one without brain or charisma.  Of course, USA markets flourished under the tutelage of the US president, so perhaps we shall suffer similar fate in the UK. This being the case, now above just 7370 points calculates with an initial near term ambition of 7398 points. If exceeded, secondary is at 7424 points. However, beware any triggering movement which happens with an opening second spike upward on the FTSE. If triggered, the tightest stop is wide at 7285 points. We’ve a theory we’re working on which suggests tighter could be safe at 7328 points. We’re cautious with this one.

Allegedly, in the event the market makes it below 7328, we should anticipate reversal to an initial 7297 points. If broken, our secondary comes along at 7237 points. If triggered, stop can be 7364 points.

Have a good weekend, even though there isn’t a Grand Prix.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:22:12PM	BRENT	59.99	58.53	57.99		60.25	61.06	62.025		59.87	Success
10:35:35PM	GOLD	1499.82	1496	1489.5		1509	1507	1523.25		1494	Success
10:42:01PM	FTSE	7352	7301	7277		7361	7365	7381.5		7314	‘cess
10:44:25PM	FRANCE	5641.5	5590	5578		5641	5668	5688		5576	Success
10:47:23PM	GERMANY	12410.38	12338	12274		12426	12475	12525.25		12341	Success
10:48:59PM	US500	3008.92	2999	2992.5		3013	3021	3026		3006
10:50:56PM	DOW	27170	27105	27037		27240	27322	27388.5		27128	‘cess
10:52:54PM	NASDAQ	7916.89	7882	7860		7958	7966	7993.75		7901	Success
10:56:41PM	JAPAN	21827	21691	21629.5		21792	21883	21966.25		21697	‘cess

 

12/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7344 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,870,235,819 a change of -19.47%

#DOW #SP500 Given events in the ‘Scottish Law v English Law, Boris v Parliament and UK v Europe’ shambles, it is probably safer to look outside the UK for signs of sanity. We’d glanced at the Euro / US Dollar pairing in March, projecting traffic down to 1.10 with this level successfully achieved. The drop exceeded our initial target on the first downward surge, generally bad news.

What does this mean?

The chart above shows movement for this pairing during the day on August 30th. The point at which our target 1.10 was achieved saw the pairing fall to 1.096, thus breaking the target and implying further weakness is possible. In the period since, the pair has bounced rather unconvincingly above and below our 1.10, thus tending to confirm it was indeed a valid target, along with signalling trouble ahead. The situation now appears fairly straightforward.

Below 1.092 should trigger further reversal to an initial 1.0635. If broken on the initial surge, our secondary is at 1.0494 and we now expect the pair to enact a bounce at such a level, if only to confirm the long term RED uptrend (from 2002!) has been broken. Effectively, this gives the hope of a bounce from 1.0494 up to 1.09 or so.

At present, to escape this quagmire, the relationship needs strengthen above 1.1240 but visually, there’s nothing significant which gives hope.

In summary, we’re all doomed…As usual.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:53:01PM	BRENT	60.7									‘cess
9:56:53PM	GOLD	1496.79
9:59:01PM	FTSE	7358									‘cess
10:02:52PM	FRANCE	5621									Success
10:06:07PM	GERMANY	12392									Success
10:07:50PM	US500	3002.07	2971	2959	2944	2990	3004	3035.25	3067	2971	Success
10:11:51PM	DOW	27159	26836	26737	26596	26989	27158	27308.5	27605	26870	Success
10:18:31PM	NASDAQ	7890.19									Success
10:32:03PM	JAPAN	21677									Success

 

11/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7338 points. Change of 0.98%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,289,107,172 a change of -4.98%