Trends And Targets

It appears Friday wants to be another down day on the #FTSE. If this happens, it will make the 3rd depressing Friday in a row, almost like the market is bored of leadership nonsense, Brexit nonsense and Trump nonsense too. #DOW #GOLD Of course, it’s probably the annual pre-August slump along with the “holiday” monsoon season in Scotland.

The market has certainly broken though the immediate uptrend, flirting provocatively with the RED uptrend but carefully avoiding regaining the trend. This alone should suggest some sort of slump is ahead. It has resulted in the situation where weakness now below 7482 should expect some reversal in the near term down to an initial 7455 points. If broken, our secondary calculates at 7395 points.

The visuals suggest, quite strongly, if 7395 does make an appearance, some sort of rebound should be expected as the market appeared to find this level fascinating for much of June. It’s pretty hard to express any timeframe for 7395 appearing, thanks to market movements recently tending to be in baby steps. The funny thing tho’, if 7395 were to break for any reason, a further fall to 7175 looks like it should be quite fast, so perhaps Boris is polishing an acceptance speech which proposes England subjugates Calais to streamline customs movements!

If the drop cycle gets underway, the FTSE will need exceed  7535 to cancel immediate drop potentials, giving a relatively tight stop loss against a potential 300+ point droop!

What if 7535 is exceeded?

Apparently we are to expect recovery to an initial 7551 points. If bettered, secondary is a longer term 7602 points.

Have a good weekend.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:48:02PM	BRENT	62.34	61.04	60.73		62.35	62.68	62.975		61.37	Success
10:50:04PM	GOLD	1446.65	1419	1413.5		1429	1448	1456.75		1425	Success
10:52:27PM	FTSE	7507	7478	7433		7521	7521	7536.5		7480	‘cess
10:54:32PM	FRANCE	5556.5	5552	5543.5		5575	5585	5596.5		5555	‘cess
10:56:42PM	GERMANY	12269	12231	12214		12278	12302	12339.5		12215	‘cess
10:58:47PM	US500	3001.11	2980	2974		2998	3002	3012		2979	‘cess
11:02:32PM	DOW	27296	27169	27152		27232	27309	27322		27170	Success
11:04:49PM	NASDAQ	7934	7847	7818.5		7900	7947	7981.5		7880	‘cess
11:07:40PM	JAPAN	21193	21052	20989		21310	21200	21278.5		21050	‘cess

18/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7493 points. Change of -0.56%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,583,341,954 a change of 1.09%

#Nasdaq #SP500 If we’re sometimes sceptical regarding Bitcoin, our thoughts on Ethereum were magnitudes worse. The good news was the recent Ethereum drop. Last week brought an email from someone going to buy at 260 and we’d strongly advised against. We suspected $200 coming. Todays email; “Ok, you’re a genius ..  200 has been hit!”

It was easy to decide this gave justification for a proper analysis. A Fake Coin following “the rules” tends be a rare event. If this is indeed the case, Ethereum now has a serious problem as it managed trade below the 200 level during the session, hitting 190 twice. When a drop target is broken, despite near term recovery, we get nervous as it will often signal more reversals are coming.

For Ethereum, 211 at time of writing, now below 190 looks capable of 163 initially, doubtless with a short lived bounce. Critically, if 163 breaks, our secondary calculates at a bottom of 95. Visually, this rather neatly matches the lows at the start of 2019 and will doubtless serve as an excellent trampoline level at some point in the future. We now cannot calculate anything below 95 and this further reinforces bounce potentials, IF 95 makes an appearance.

As always, perhaps we’re being hysterical but we often feel an exchange, based on the Daily Pollen Count measured from the roof of the London Stock Exchange, would prove to have greater integrity than trading in Crypto’s. Despite repeated small signals of market attitudes changing, for as long as daily swings in crypto prices tending occur regardless of trade volume levels, we prefer caution.

However, as an olive branch, there is a chance 200 was indeed bottom and the currency will bounce. That being the case, we need the price to exceed 227 (allegedly the immediate target) as this should trigger recovery to an initial 255. If exceeded, secondary is at 280 and a visual challenge against the BLUE downtrend. Only with closure above 280 shall be suspect a true miracle is in progress, thanks to 352 being our first breakout target upward.

In summary, we suspect this intends wind its way to 95. The caveat, and initial integrity test for any rise, comes if 227 bettered.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:57:17PM	BRENT	63.25									‘cess
10:03:44PM	GOLD	1427.15									Success
10:05:49PM	FTSE	7516.32
10:08:10PM	FRANCE	5561.5									Shambles
10:10:12PM	GERMANY	12283									Success
10:12:29PM	US500	2978.15	2976	2974	2959	2998	3009	3014.5	3020	2989	Success
10:14:28PM	DOW	27195.9									Success
10:16:18PM	NASDAQ	7850.87	7846	7816	7762	7928	7942	7969	8010	7886	Success
10:21:43PM	JAPAN	21295									Success

 

17/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7535 points. Change of -0.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,522,999,205 a change of 2.25%

#SP500 #CAC40 We last reviewed A G Barrs a month ago (link), spending the last week feeling smug at the share prices dance on our 860 drop target. It did break our 860 briefly, hitting an alarming 859p in the process. Was this payback for their lack of sugar in Irn Bru?

There are suspicions the “Profit Warning” was due to Scots panic buying proper Irn Bru, prior to the recipe change to something which, frankly, left a bitter aftertaste. It makes one wonder, if no-one thought to review the Coke Cola experience, when Coke changed the recipe? An insipid 2019 compared with a strong 2018 (doubtless due to fanatical Scots stockpiling) should probably have been expected, if indeed the Profit Warning can truly be attributed to a drop in sales of their primary product.

The situation against Barr’s share price now looks rather risky. Utterly key for the following scenario shall be their share price CLOSING a session below 616p. In fact, intraday traffic below 600p is liable to be a reasonable early warning signal. Such a disaster allows ongoing weakness to 498p initially. If broken, secondary is a probable bottom of 347p which rather neatly matches the lows of 2012.

Of course, there’s doubtless a bean counter at Barr’s who’s about to suggest “Classic Irn Bru” might sell, perhaps at a premium price. Invariably, this will probably be the same person who suggested changing the recipe to avoid the UK Govt sugar tax…

A G Barr needs better RED, presently 775p, to suggest this dip has been a dreadful mistake.

For now, we suspect a trip to 498p is on the cards where it shall hopefully rebound.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:26:57PM	BRENT	64.09									Success
10:29:21PM	GOLD	1406.84									‘cess
10:31:54PM	FTSE	7559.02									Success
10:37:32PM	FRANCE	5603.2	5571	5552	5527	5615	5616	5628	5653	5577	‘cess
10:42:07PM	GERMANY	12417.98									‘cess
10:44:43PM	US500	3002.77	3000	2993.5	2985	3014	3017	3022.5	3030	3006	‘cess
10:49:02PM	DOW	27333
10:51:36PM	NASDAQ	7918.37									Shambles
10:53:52PM	JAPAN	21478									Success

16/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7577 points. Change of 0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,401,478,176 a change of 12.98%

#GOLD #CAC40 Explorer and producer, Cairn PLC @CairnEnergy, have suffered since 2014 from a rather boring share price. As the chart shows, the share price has been fluttering above and below the 2 quid level for 5 years, essentially giving all the hallmarks of “safety”. Even near term, the potentials being highlighted are sane!

Movements now above 180p should embark the price on a climb to an initial 187p. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at 202p. To be blunt, neither ambition is particularly impressive but the important thing shall come if 202p is exceeded for any reason. This would tend imply, quite firmly, a new recovery cycle is hopefully about to commence with movement toward 259 looking very possible.

There is a fly in the ointment, worth mentioning if the company find an excuse to issue negative news. Below 138p would now prove a bad thing, risking reversal to an initial 91p with secondary, if broken, down at 60p,

From our usual perspective, we’d already be resigned to this visiting 91p eventually as two, quite distinct, Big Picture criteria calculate the price already being on a path to 91p. To utterly cancel the prospect, the share requires trade above BLUE on the chart, presently 230p. This is why our paragraph on price recovery above is so important. The share price is already showing some early potential of movements to break its current malaise. All it need do is go up a bit.

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:27:00PM	GOLD	1416.95
9:29:32PM	BRENT	65.87	65.77	65.505	64.85	66.7	67.13	67.4	67.94	66.15	‘cess
9:31:57PM	FTSE	7534									Shambles
9:33:52PM	FRANCE	5581.2	5548	5534.5	5510	5582	5598	5612.5	5634	5563	‘cess
9:39:08PM	GERMANY	12412									‘cess
9:41:13PM	US500	3014.4									‘cess
9:43:23PM	DOW	27353									‘cess
9:45:52PM	NASDAQ	7964									‘cess
9:48:18PM	JAPAN	21610									Shambles

15/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7531 points. Change of 0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,780,919,626 a change of 2.65%

#BRENT #DAX If only the UK stock market could prove as strong as UK sporting events. Even cricket games, (we’re told) were watchable though personally, a firm line was drawn at tennis. Proper sports really do not involve artificial balls. Formula 1 on the other hand provided a 200 mile race which reminded many folk why they are enthusiasts, despite the Ferrari guy once again trying to push a rival off track!

TERN. When we review last weeks headline shares, Tern (link here) is a complete standout for its boring behaviour. Price movements remained lacklustre with the share price still requiring exceed 13.25p to signal something genuine may be happening. It certainly game close on Friday as the day high of 13.25 was achieved during trading, rather than as an opening second spike. As a result, it should prove worth watching in the days ahead.

Gulf Keystone. GKP, similar to Tern, turned into a tease, following our report on Monday (link here) . All we required was the price to close a session above 234p and it spitefully closed Friday at 233p, the highest point of the week. However, we’re not too dismayed and submit it should prove worth attention fairly soon. We’d suspect some hesitation around the 241p level in any immediate rise.

UK OIL & GAS. UKOG has gotten dangerous and we suspect it intends relax to 0.75p soon. Hopefully sufficient reason is found to create a reasonable rebound at such a level but it needs above 1.125 to give some hope any recovery might be genuine. Until then, it’s trading in a region where realistically we cannot calculate a bottom ambition.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
8:18:08PM	BRENT	66.74	66.26	65.955	65.56	66.91	67.28	67.605	68.06	66.26
8:25:52PM	GOLD	1416.5
8:27:30PM	FTSE	7495.98									‘cess
10:11:49PM	FRANCE	5574.2
10:19:14PM	GERMANY	12322	12301	12274.5	12237	12387	12398	12430	12473	12303
10:21:01PM	US500	3011.27									‘cess
10:23:37PM	DOW	27322									Success
10:25:16PM	NASDAQ	7936.37
10:31:38PM	JAPAN	21587

12/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7505 points. Change of -0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,657,511,439 a change of -13.4%

#DAX #Gold The ‘damage’ enacted by Trumps presidency continues to wreak havoc on US markets with the S&P now stronger than ever before. So are the DOW and Nasdaq! It makes a painful contrast with the UK’s “strong & stable” rhetoric while the FTSE struggles to reach any realistic growth levels. Maybe we need build yet another wall to keep Scots out, because some ideas work in unexpected ways…

The S&P now needs better 3003 to enter a cycle toward 3027 points next, perhaps even 3046 points thanks to all the opening movement gaps. Longer term, the index now looks capable of 3163 as the next major point of interest. The market needs fall below 2875 to indicate the rising phase is starting to fail.

As for the FTSE and Friday, as mentioned earlier, the index continues to behave poorly and weakness now below 7500 looks capable of a near term 7473 points. If broken, secondary is at 7424 points and we’d hope for a rebound at such a level. If triggered, the tightest visual stop is at 7532 points but realistically, we’d prefer 7560 as this one appears too much like a free gift.

The converse situation, what happens if the index betters 7532 is pretty straightforward. Initially we’d look for some recovery to 7558 points. Secondary, if bettered, calculates at 7598 points.

We’re not oozing optimism, given the UK market managed to close below its immediate uptrend. Equally, if we applied similar acceleration force to those experienced in the USA, the UK should be trading around 7750 at present.

Hopefully this weekends British Grand Prix gives the UK markets a boost for next week. (clue: no chance)

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:38:37PM	BRENT	66.7	66.28	66.13			67.51	68.755			‘cess
10:41:03PM	GOLD	1404.49	1400	1391			1427	1431.5			‘cess
10:43:05PM	FTSE	7532.72	7500	7489.5			7560	7582			‘cess
10:46:42PM	FRANCE	5556	5548	5531			5594	5606.5			Shambles
10:48:52PM	GERMANY	12345	12304	12232			12436	12458			‘cess
10:51:29PM	US500	3000.22	2988	2982.5			3004	3009.5
10:53:29PM	DOW	27082.3	26883	26814.5			27098	27149			Success
10:56:45PM	NASDAQ	7896.12	7871	7848			7939	7956
10:58:13PM	JAPAN	21620	21522	21499			21643	21716.5

11/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7509 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,378,122,833 a change of 10.52%

#DAX #NK225 A core ingredient in time travel stories generally revolves around the hero’s inability to arrive at the correct date and time. Back To The Future provided a great series of films and Dr Who, a continual TV series. Albeit one with currently a rubbish Doctor! We never conceal an inability to be concise with timeframes. After all, if Dr Who or Marty McFly can’t do it, who can? TERN manages to illustrate this quite neatly.

When reviewing Tern last December, (link here) we warned of the dangers below 12p as a visit to 7.5p was possible. The price broke 12p in February yet it was to take until April before it achieved our drop target, thankfully eventually bouncing by double. Since then, it has done very little other than assure the market it’s still trading by going up and down a bit. We’re not going to suspect further price recovery is upon it unless the share manages close a session above 12.65p or, trades intraday above 13.25p.

Either criteria should prove fairly significant, allegedly launching the price into a region where growth toward an initial 15.75p makes sense. Longer term (or the next day), secondary calculates at 20.5p. There is something slightly interesting about the secondary, given the prices history since October last year. A glass ceiling appears to be lying in wait and we’d be surprised if it failed to promote some hesitation in any rising cycle.

We’d be remiss if we failed to inject some misery into our thinking. Below RED, presently around 8p, would be alarming as it permits reversal to a new bottom of 4p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:48:37PM	BRENT	66.47									Success
9:50:26PM	GOLD	1418.19									Success
9:52:20PM	FTSE	7545.24
9:59:24PM	FRANCE	5575.5									‘cess
10:01:19PM	GERMANY	12383	12353	12327	12286	12434	12459	12498.5	12547	12386	‘cess
10:03:41PM	US500	2992.77									Success
10:06:27PM	DOW	26861.5									Success
10:09:07PM	NASDAQ	7902.24									Success
10:10:36PM	JAPAN	21542	21481	21430	21362	21579	21636	21665	21733	21500	Success

10/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7530 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,865,997,010 a change of 0.89%