FTSE for 23/08/2019

FTSE for FRIDAY Approaching the final week of a grotty month, the #FTSE currently behaves like a driver in slow traffic with a police car behind. Exquisite caution is being exercised and we feel it’s justified. Too many things are piling up, suggesting some reversal is almost upon us. This, obviously, would be silly for the driver of the car in traffic!

Thursday proved a bit of a puzzle, literally world wide. Many markets (aside from the DOW) experienced upward triggers yet failed to move. Equally, a few hit downward triggers yet failed to move. The DOW, desperate to please, hit an upward trigger, achieving initial target. It later hit a downward trigger, also achieving target. In plain English, it left us painfully aware the market isn’t giving away any immediate direction hints.

For Friday, the FTSE is interesting. Weakness now below 7103 points suggests coming reversal to an initial 7084 points. If broken, secondary calculates at 7010 points and hopefully some sort of near term bounce. If triggered, the tightest stop  looks like 7149 points.

What happens if 7149 is exceeded?

Initially, surprise recovery to an initial 7168 makes some sense. If exceeded, our longer term secondary is at 7189 points.

In both scenario, we’d remind the market is proving cautious and we shall not be aghast if the FTSE mimics everywhere else by only chasing initial targets.

Have a good, dry, weekend.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:13:39PM

BRENT

69.69

59.14

58.925

   

60.58

60.96

   

10:15:43PM

GOLD

1498.56

1492

1489

   

1505

1508.5

   

10:18:04PM

FTSE

7127.78

7101

7084

   

7204

7225.5

   

10:22:57PM

FRANCE

5394.2

5387

5373

   

5431

5450

   

10:24:41PM

GERMANY

11749

11707

11674.5

   

11856

11902

   

Shambles

10:27:00PM

US500

2920.77

2903

2891

   

2939

2950

   

10:40:21PM

DOW

26230

26087

26011.5

   

26379

26424.5

   

‘cess

10:44:08PM

NASDAQ

7702.37

7643

7630

   

7737

7761.5

   

Shambles

10:45:38PM

JAPAN

20598

20535

20486.5

   

20696

20753

   

22/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7128 points. Change of -1.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,055,126,990 a change of 4.34%

Brent Crude for 22/08/2019

#DOW #CAC40 Every time Scotland gets restless, demanding independence from Westminster control, the price of Brent starts to drop. With the (almost) certainty of another referendum next year (The Scots voted nearly 2/3 AGAINST Brexit), we ask how the price of crude is looking. Unsurprisingly, the answer suggests pretty poorly for the longer term.

The immediate issue is at 54.5 as we’d regard this as a trigger for some fairly firm reversals. Below such a level allows weakness down to an initial 45 dollars with secondary, if broken, at a bottom (hopefully) at 39 dollars. If triggered, the stuff requires above Blue, presently 63.5, to cancel the drop potentials anytime soon but realistically, we calculate the product needs above 67.51 dollars to utterly foul the reversal potentials.

We’re being a little satirical with causes for the drop – the plunge to 28 dollars didn’t take place until 15 months after the last Scottish referendum. Unsurprisingly, the writing had been on the wall for a major drop at the very start of 2014, around the time the last independence referendum was announced.

On this occasion, we’re calculating an ultimate bottom potential at 26 dollars, if everything goes horribly wrong for Brent.

In the event a miracle occurs, above 67.5 looks like it should trigger moves to an initial 70.5 dollars. If bettered, secondary is at 75 and a probable hesitation. For now though, we rather suspect we shall see 39 dollars drip into view.

Recent opinion polls are suggesting a majority in favour of an independent Scotland. Amusingly, it also appears both Labour and Conservatives in Scotland are seeking to break away from their masters in London. It’s unclear quite how that will fly when they campaign against independence.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:16:06PM

BRENT

60.1

               

Success

10:17:50PM

GOLD

1502.6

               

10:22:08PM

FTSE

7201.57

               

10:30:52PM

FRANCE

5427.5

5380

5371

5347

5435

5443

5450

5483

5380

Success

10:33:51PM

GERMANY

11809.63

               

Success

10:36:03PM

US500

2932.02

               

Success

10:44:08PM

DOW

26262.7

26112

26093

26033

26248

26273

26346

26502

26070

Success

10:45:40PM

NASDAQ

7749.12

               

Success

10:46:55PM

JAPAN

20711

               

Success

 

21/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7203 points. Change of 1.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,844,792,764 a change of -0.8%

The Mining Sector for 21/08/2019

#Nasdaq #NK200 Batman sprung to mind when working on this one. Actually, not Batman but instead, the depths TV companies go to milk a franchise. We had “Batman”, we had “Gotham” (the Bats early years) and now, digging really deep, they came up with “Pennyworth”, Batmans butler’ early life. Expecting drenched in drivel, it turned out to be a pretty good, violent, non superhero, subversive, alternate England in the ’60’s onwards. Paloma Faith stars, bringing an unrelenting presence, reminding of the infamous Myra Hindley photograph. (okay, someone here binged on 5 hours of telly during last weekend) It is emphatically not for children!

It appears sometimes when you dig deep, you can find a gem!

I’m not so sure about the Mining Sectors prospects but it appears ready to dig deeper than TV producers go. This presents a fairly big issue as we’re already showing The Banking Sector as dangerous, Oil & Gas as dangerous, and now the Mining sector is dangerous. It’s almost as if alarm bells are ringing, warning of imminent stock market reversals as we’re concerned at the plethora of dangers queuing up.

For The Mining Sector, it is presently trading around 17,385 points, below the uptrend since 2016. This results in the expectation of traffic below 17,350 looking capable of reversal down to 17,060 and the probability of a short lived bounce. Our secondary, if such a level breaks on an initial dip, is at 15,618 along with a real bounce, hopefully. Serious danger awaits should the market actually close below this point as severe reversal down to the 12,100 level calculates as very probable. The implication behind this is fairly straightforward. If stalking a Major Miner due to their attractive share price, it shall prove wise to glance at the ruling sector (NMW1770) and check its position. Something which looks like a bargain could easily bury investors fairly quickly.

To consign this scenario to the tailings pile of analysis, the Mining Index needs better 18,220 points as this should make Major Miners attractive again, due to the potentials of a sharp lift to 19,322 and relative safety for the sector.

For now, confidence is lacking.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:34:04PM

BRENT

59.82

               

10:56:35PM

GOLD

1507.98

               

10:58:36PM

FTSE

7100.16

               

‘cess

11:00:35PM

FRANCE

5332

               

Shambles

11:02:37PM

GERMANY

11608

               

Shambles

11:05:49PM

US500

2894.77

               

11:08:53PM

DOW

25911

               

‘cess

11:18:12PM

NASDAQ

7659

7642

7630.5

7593

7693

7702

7718.5

7744

7659

11:19:52PM

JAPAN

20501

20468

20430

20338

20593

20593

20631

20685

20485

 

20/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7125 points. Change of -0.89%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,883,785,499 a change of -8.29%

The Oil Sector for 20/08/2019

#GOLD #SP500 We constantly remind readers we’re not gifted with time travel. When “the computer” makes a price projection, the stupid box is completely unable to pull a Dr Who stunt and give a timeframe. It’s a bit like predicting a Brexit date – not possible other than knowing it will happen. Probably! As a result, the safest thing we can suggest is not getting excited about a share being “cheap” if a ruling sector trend suggests downward travel.

The Oil Sector is presently in a slightly scary place with some truly foul potentials. As a result, Oil Shares doubtless face a bumpy ride if the sector wanders below 8,214 points. We’d regard this as the trigger for reversal to a harmless looking 7,985 and hopefully some sort of bounce. Alas, we’d suspect any bounce shall prove short lived – especially if the initial surge down breaks our 7,985 target level.

The implication of a break will signal the risk of continued weakness down to 6,230 points, perhaps even a bottom at 4,749 as the “ultimate” point at which a proper rebound can be hoped. This, unfortunately, even makes some visual sense.

We’re not optimistic about the sectors chances but near term, there is potentially the opportunity to map sector strength. Above 8485 points calculates with an initial potential of 8624 with secondary, if exceeded, coming along at 8801 points. This will at least challenge the most recent uptrend and allow a longer term 9,154 points along with confirmation the entire sector is “rangebound” for the present.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:01:01PM

BRENT

59.47

               

‘cess

10:02:49PM

GOLD

1496.67

               

‘cess

10:04:25PM

FTSE

7180.29

               

Success

10:06:31PM

FRANCE

5358.2

               

Success

10:09:10PM

GERMANY

11700.33

               

‘cess

10:11:59PM

US500

2921.72

2899

2886

2867

2927

2932

2936

2949

2909

Success

10:14:34PM

DOW

26124

               

Success

10:16:46PM

NASDAQ

7712.62

               

Success

10:18:42PM

JAPAN

20645

               

 

19/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7189 points. Change of 1.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,325,102,797 a change of 11.02%

Banking Sector for 19/08/2019

#Brent #DAX It’s been nearly a year since we last irritated ourselves (link) with a look at the clown farm, The Banking Sector. Unsurprisingly, it did NOT escape from trouble, it achieved our initial drop target, and now is closing (finally) on our secondary target, the point at which we hope for a rebound.

Or will it?

The immediate situation is of weakness below 3360 still indicating the potential of 3236 and hopefully a bounce but we’re pretty concerned. A break below 3236 shall move the index below the long term RED uptrend and suggest the potential of 3078 making a guest appearance. This would tend be a jolly poor show as while there will be hope for a bounce as the index meets the lows of 2016 and the Brexit vote, the impact of breaking the uptrend since the banking crash of 2009 will easily allow a third target level to make an appearance, a completely absurd looking 2460.

To be honest, it’s not as absurd as a major attraction below RED calculating at just 320 points. Obviously, an utterly silly number as we can surely trust the banking system…

In the interests of fairness, there’s quite a lot arguing for a recoil if 3236 makes an appearance and it’s certainly getting close to this target level. If any strength is indeed evident, it could bounce anytime soon. This being the case, movement now above 3467 should prove capable of a market lift to 3529 points. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 3840 and a coming challenge of the downtrend since 2008. We’re not inclined to any optimism over this scenario, just yet.

About the only conclusion we draw suggests some misery remains within the retail banking sector but there appears a chance of some recovery soon. We can hope!

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

12:07:19PM

BRENT

58.43

57.9

56.61

55.04

58.75

58.8

59.25

59.84

58

12:41:38PM

GOLD

1512.97

               

Success

1:26:37PM

FTSE

7131.75

               

1:34:09PM

FRANCE

5301

               

1:36:01PM

GERMANY

11578.86

11418

11367.5

11295

11505

11585

11657

11788

11490

‘cess

1:39:52PM

US500

2891.29

               

Success

1:41:58PM

DOW

25918.3

               

‘cess

1:46:53PM

NASDAQ

7602.87

               

Success

1:55:55PM

JAPAN

20605

               

‘cess

16/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7117 points. Change of 0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,796,388,479 a change of -14.47%

Friday FTSE for 16/08/2019

#DJI #FTSE As we ponder an end of civilisation, due to global market reversals, it occurs the UK’s Brexit shambles is “off the hook” for damaging the stock market. Or is the UK still secretly a driving force in world affairs, despite woeful political leadership? Last time we had so many shares needing an update in a single day was immediately following the Brexit vote!

There is still some hope the UK will bottom around Thursdays low of 7020 points. We shall be alarmed in the event 7007 now breaks, thanks to our immediate drop target calculating at 6984 points. If broken, secondary computes at 6906. Hopefully, if this scenario triggers, it doesn’t all happen in a single day.

There is a chance Thursdays low of 7020 shall be deemed “bottom” with the result a rebound could occur on Friday. It closed Thursday at 7059 points, needing only above 7098 points to tick the first “bottom is in” box. Above 7098 allows recovery to an initial comfortable looking 7156 points. If exceeded, secondary comes along at 7246 points. The initial ambition would imply a coming bonk against the immediate downtrend. But if bettered, nearly another 100 points will make a lot of visual sense.

We remain a little suspicious over this reversal. A drop at the end of July / start August is fairly normal, as is a surprise recovery which lasts through to September and the end of the holiday season. On this occasion, the market has certainly retreated further than we’d like but unless 7007 breaks, some hope exists for recovery soon.

Have a good weekend.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:46:42PM

BRENT

58.12

57.43

56.63

 

58.77

59.2

59.44

 

58.36

‘cess

9:49:59PM

GOLD

1524.74

1512

1510

 

1521

1527

1531

 

1516

10:01:43PM

FTSE

7082.04

7001

6949.5

 

7143

7145

7190.5

 

7061

‘cess

10:03:55PM

FRANCE

5237

5169

5129

 

5263

5283

5316

 

5202

‘cess

10:28:39PM

GERMANY

11432

11340

11254.5

 

11480

11505

11582.5

 

11346

‘cess

10:30:16PM

US500

2851

2816

2801

 

2855

2870

2876.5

 

2833

‘cess

10:32:43PM

DOW

25603

25227

25110

 

25600

25716

25863

 

25409

‘cess

10:36:41PM

NASDAQ

7500

7419

7369

 

7507

7540

7584.25

 

7443

‘cess

10:39:16PM

JAPAN

20358

20160

20069.5

 

20303

20513

20555

 

20310

‘cess

 

15/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7067 points. Change of -1.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,608,085,951 a change of -5.76%

GBP/USD, the Pound Dollar shambles. for 15/08/2019

#Gold #DOW #GBPUSD Our previous report (link) proved accurate and now, we’re a little gloomy. Sterling is starting to exhibit similar life expectancy to Epstein’s prison guards. On the other hand, after Brexit, the USA are bound to find UK imports quite competitive. If only the UK still had a reasonable manufacturing industry!

The immediate problem Sterling now faces is an expectation of a “bottom” on the current cycle at 1.1677. Unfortunately, there’s a heck of an argument suggesting things could get worse, substantially worse, as the Big Picture indicates a real bottom should occur at 0.9922 eventually. In addition, there’s the issue of the RED uptrend which ridiculously dates back to 1985.

We’re perfectly aware some readers were not even born when this uptrend commenced 34 years ago but unfortunately the market appears not to care about the age of a faded RED line. The inset on the chart highlights what has happened in the last few days since the trend broke. Visually, there can be little doubt the market is perfectly aware of this line. At time of writing, it is at 1.20807 (roughly) with the currency pairing requiring to CLOSE a session above this to indicate it has all been a dreadful mistake.

Visually, this appears unlikely, thanks to the market acknowledging this historical trend. On the plus side, anyone opening a short and hoping for the best (or worst) can emplace a fairly tight stop at 1.2106, this being the highest achieved since the trend broke. In theory, moves above this level allow for 1.2327 initially with secondary, if bettered, calculating at 1.2475.

When a major trend such as this breaks, we recommend not holding your breath while awaiting recovery!

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:47:56PM

BRENT

58.86

               

Success

9:49:50PM

GOLD

1516.64

1499

1495.5

1486

1518

1524

1528

1535

1506

Success

9:52:10PM

FTSE

7102.8

               

‘cess

9:54:05PM

FRANCE

5228.7

               

Success

9:57:05PM

GERMANY

11422

               

Success

10:02:55PM

US500

2835.07

               

Success

10:05:34PM

DOW

25422.3

25407

25319

25096

25690

25745

25846.5

25993

25600

Success

10:10:10PM

NASDAQ

7468.89

               

Success

10:12:23PM

JAPAN

20118

               

Success

 

14/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7147 points. Change of -1.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,950,937,323 a change of -4.59%