Trends And Targets

#GOLD #SP500 We constantly remind readers we’re not gifted with time travel. When “the computer” makes a price projection, the stupid box is completely unable to pull a Dr Who stunt and give a timeframe. It’s a bit like predicting a Brexit date – not possible other than knowing it will happen. Probably! As a result, the safest thing we can suggest is not getting excited about a share being “cheap” if a ruling sector trend suggests downward travel.

The Oil Sector is presently in a slightly scary place with some truly foul potentials. As a result, Oil Shares doubtless face a bumpy ride if the sector wanders below 8,214 points. We’d regard this as the trigger for reversal to a harmless looking 7,985 and hopefully some sort of bounce. Alas, we’d suspect any bounce shall prove short lived – especially if the initial surge down breaks our 7,985 target level.

The implication of a break will signal the risk of continued weakness down to 6,230 points, perhaps even a bottom at 4,749 as the “ultimate” point at which a proper rebound can be hoped. This, unfortunately, even makes some visual sense.

We’re not optimistic about the sectors chances but near term, there is potentially the opportunity to map sector strength. Above 8485 points calculates with an initial potential of 8624 with secondary, if exceeded, coming along at 8801 points. This will at least challenge the most recent uptrend and allow a longer term 9,154 points along with confirmation the entire sector is “rangebound” for the present.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:01:01PM	BRENT	59.47									‘cess
10:02:49PM	GOLD	1496.67									‘cess
10:04:25PM	FTSE	7180.29									Success
10:06:31PM	FRANCE	5358.2									Success
10:09:10PM	GERMANY	11700.33									‘cess
10:11:59PM	US500	2921.72	2899	2886	2867	2927	2932	2936	2949	2909	Success
10:14:34PM	DOW	26124									Success
10:16:46PM	NASDAQ	7712.62									Success
10:18:42PM	JAPAN	20645

 

19/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7189 points. Change of 1.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,325,102,797 a change of 11.02%

#Brent #DAX It’s been nearly a year since we last irritated ourselves (link) with a look at the clown farm, The Banking Sector. Unsurprisingly, it did NOT escape from trouble, it achieved our initial drop target, and now is closing (finally) on our secondary target, the point at which we hope for a rebound.

Or will it?

The immediate situation is of weakness below 3360 still indicating the potential of 3236 and hopefully a bounce but we’re pretty concerned. A break below 3236 shall move the index below the long term RED uptrend and suggest the potential of 3078 making a guest appearance. This would tend be a jolly poor show as while there will be hope for a bounce as the index meets the lows of 2016 and the Brexit vote, the impact of breaking the uptrend since the banking crash of 2009 will easily allow a third target level to make an appearance, a completely absurd looking 2460.

To be honest, it’s not as absurd as a major attraction below RED calculating at just 320 points. Obviously, an utterly silly number as we can surely trust the banking system…

In the interests of fairness, there’s quite a lot arguing for a recoil if 3236 makes an appearance and it’s certainly getting close to this target level. If any strength is indeed evident, it could bounce anytime soon. This being the case, movement now above 3467 should prove capable of a market lift to 3529 points. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 3840 and a coming challenge of the downtrend since 2008. We’re not inclined to any optimism over this scenario, just yet.

About the only conclusion we draw suggests some misery remains within the retail banking sector but there appears a chance of some recovery soon. We can hope!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
12:07:19PM	BRENT	58.43	57.9	56.61	55.04	58.75	58.8	59.25	59.84	58
12:41:38PM	GOLD	1512.97									Success
1:26:37PM	FTSE	7131.75
1:34:09PM	FRANCE	5301
1:36:01PM	GERMANY	11578.86	11418	11367.5	11295	11505	11585	11657	11788	11490	‘cess
1:39:52PM	US500	2891.29									Success
1:41:58PM	DOW	25918.3									‘cess
1:46:53PM	NASDAQ	7602.87									Success
1:55:55PM	JAPAN	20605									‘cess

16/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7117 points. Change of 0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,796,388,479 a change of -14.47%

#DJI #FTSE As we ponder an end of civilisation, due to global market reversals, it occurs the UK’s Brexit shambles is “off the hook” for damaging the stock market. Or is the UK still secretly a driving force in world affairs, despite woeful political leadership? Last time we had so many shares needing an update in a single day was immediately following the Brexit vote!

There is still some hope the UK will bottom around Thursdays low of 7020 points. We shall be alarmed in the event 7007 now breaks, thanks to our immediate drop target calculating at 6984 points. If broken, secondary computes at 6906. Hopefully, if this scenario triggers, it doesn’t all happen in a single day.

There is a chance Thursdays low of 7020 shall be deemed “bottom” with the result a rebound could occur on Friday. It closed Thursday at 7059 points, needing only above 7098 points to tick the first “bottom is in” box. Above 7098 allows recovery to an initial comfortable looking 7156 points. If exceeded, secondary comes along at 7246 points. The initial ambition would imply a coming bonk against the immediate downtrend. But if bettered, nearly another 100 points will make a lot of visual sense.

We remain a little suspicious over this reversal. A drop at the end of July / start August is fairly normal, as is a surprise recovery which lasts through to September and the end of the holiday season. On this occasion, the market has certainly retreated further than we’d like but unless 7007 breaks, some hope exists for recovery soon.

Have a good weekend.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:46:42PM	BRENT	58.12	57.43	56.63		58.77	59.2	59.44		58.36	‘cess
9:49:59PM	GOLD	1524.74	1512	1510		1521	1527	1531		1516
10:01:43PM	FTSE	7082.04	7001	6949.5		7143	7145	7190.5		7061	‘cess
10:03:55PM	FRANCE	5237	5169	5129		5263	5283	5316		5202	‘cess
10:28:39PM	GERMANY	11432	11340	11254.5		11480	11505	11582.5		11346	‘cess
10:30:16PM	US500	2851	2816	2801		2855	2870	2876.5		2833	‘cess
10:32:43PM	DOW	25603	25227	25110		25600	25716	25863		25409	‘cess
10:36:41PM	NASDAQ	7500	7419	7369		7507	7540	7584.25		7443	‘cess
10:39:16PM	JAPAN	20358	20160	20069.5		20303	20513	20555		20310	‘cess

 

15/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7067 points. Change of -1.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,608,085,951 a change of -5.76%

#Gold #DOW #GBPUSD Our previous report (link) proved accurate and now, we’re a little gloomy. Sterling is starting to exhibit similar life expectancy to Epstein’s prison guards. On the other hand, after Brexit, the USA are bound to find UK imports quite competitive. If only the UK still had a reasonable manufacturing industry!

The immediate problem Sterling now faces is an expectation of a “bottom” on the current cycle at 1.1677. Unfortunately, there’s a heck of an argument suggesting things could get worse, substantially worse, as the Big Picture indicates a real bottom should occur at 0.9922 eventually. In addition, there’s the issue of the RED uptrend which ridiculously dates back to 1985.

We’re perfectly aware some readers were not even born when this uptrend commenced 34 years ago but unfortunately the market appears not to care about the age of a faded RED line. The inset on the chart highlights what has happened in the last few days since the trend broke. Visually, there can be little doubt the market is perfectly aware of this line. At time of writing, it is at 1.20807 (roughly) with the currency pairing requiring to CLOSE a session above this to indicate it has all been a dreadful mistake.

Visually, this appears unlikely, thanks to the market acknowledging this historical trend. On the plus side, anyone opening a short and hoping for the best (or worst) can emplace a fairly tight stop at 1.2106, this being the highest achieved since the trend broke. In theory, moves above this level allow for 1.2327 initially with secondary, if bettered, calculating at 1.2475.

When a major trend such as this breaks, we recommend not holding your breath while awaiting recovery!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:47:56PM	BRENT	58.86									Success
9:49:50PM	GOLD	1516.64	1499	1495.5	1486	1518	1524	1528	1535	1506	Success
9:52:10PM	FTSE	7102.8									‘cess
9:54:05PM	FRANCE	5228.7									Success
9:57:05PM	GERMANY	11422									Success
10:02:55PM	US500	2835.07									Success
10:05:34PM	DOW	25422.3	25407	25319	25096	25690	25745	25846.5	25993	25600	Success
10:10:10PM	NASDAQ	7468.89									Success
10:12:23PM	JAPAN	20118									Success

 

14/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7147 points. Change of -1.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,950,937,323 a change of -4.59%

#CAC40 #Nasdaq Unlike Germany, the French index has not (yet) made a commitment for serious reversal. Don’t be lulled into a false sense of security as France rarely misses any opportunity for amateur dramatics. At present trading around 5363, it needs below 5250 to suggest trouble awaits anytime soon.

Below 5250 and we’re looking at the potential for reversal to 4990 with secondary if (when) broken at 4780 and ideally a rebound. The secondary should donk against the uptrend since 2011, this alone giving ample reason for a recoil. We do, however, have a problem with the secondary thanks to several opening second manipulation gaps. These gaps in logic mean “bottom” could actually be 4728 points and this gives a large problem, breaking the historical uptrend.

To cut a long story short, it moves the price into a region where the “real bottom” calculates down at 3855 points. Visually, this unfortunately makes sense given historical dips and thus solidifies 3855 as the point at which a real bounce should occur.

Importantly, this is presently a scenario which has not come close to triggering. As mentioned, the index requires break below 5250 to tick the first box in a path which holds quite a lot of misery. We shall be interested, if the index can somehow exceed 5406 points anytime soon. Allegedly, if the price breaks above such a level, we can calculate 5508 as our first ambition. If exceeded, secondary computes at 5630, along with almost certain hesitation.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:55:31PM	BRENT	60.8									Success
9:57:42PM	GOLD	1501.78									Success
9:59:43PM	FTSE	7290.93									‘cess
10:02:31PM	FRANCE	5378.5	5347	5331.5	5307	5385	5406	5445.5	5505	5347	Success
10:04:27PM	GERMANY	11811.45									‘cess
10:08:08PM	US500	2931.47									Shambles
10:14:56PM	DOW	26330.6									Shambles
10:41:50PM	NASDAQ	7741.12	7649	7637	7589	7744	7781	7799	7898	7590	Shambles
10:44:21PM	JAPAN	20761									‘cess

 

13/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7250 points. Change of 0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,237,208,615 a change of 31.47%

12/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7226 points. Change of -0.37%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,744,103,828 a change of -22.18%

#Gold #SP500 Every now and then, stories in the media rumble about Germany and her apparently failing economy. Sometimes the level of hysteria is so absurd, Poland must be carefully watching her borders… . Our April analysis successfully gave upward targets for the DAX. For now, there seems there is a viable threat to exports if the UK Brexit thing goes ahead without trade agreements in place and the chart for The Dax is certainly not terribly encouraging.

To cut to the good stuff, weakness now below 11,550 looks capable of reversal to an initial unspectacular 11,250 points. If (or rather when) broken, secondary calculates down at 10,775 points, along with a challenge of the market uptrend since 2011. Only a break of this uptrend would justify some real hysterics as the index would shuffle into a zone where 7,100 presents a fairly reasonable longer term bottom.

We’ll admit, currently, 7,100 does not appear visually likely. Instead, we suspect 10,775 shall provide some sort of bounce in the months ahead. To get out of this mess, the index needs better Blue on the chart, 12,650 at time of writing.

If we look for early warning signals which will suggest a miracle, Germany requires better 12,160 as this will suggest coming recovery to 12,400 points. Better still, movement above this level calculates with 12,950 along with the promise of further strong recovery.

For now, it’s regarded as heading to 10,775 eventually!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:14:40PM	BRENT	58.3
10:31:12PM	GOLD	1511.84	1499	1492	1483	1512	1515	1520.5	1532	1499	Success
10:33:04PM	FTSE	7213.27									‘cess
10:35:09PM	FRANCE	5294.7									‘cess
10:38:36PM	GERMANY	11638									Success
10:43:24PM	US500	2882.97	2872	2851.5	2821	2909	2909	2920	2936	2889	Success
10:46:39PM	DOW	25899									Success
10:52:05PM	NASDAQ	7565.02
10:54:30PM	JAPAN	20291									‘cess

12/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7226 points. Change of -0.37%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,744,103,828 a change of -22.18%

#DAX #BRENT As the worlds leading country for jail population, you’d think the USA would be good at prisons. Events this weekend tend suggest this isn’t the case and all their practice has counted for nothing. Losing the countries highest profile guest of their penal system must be a major oops. Is the DOW as safe?

We’ve a reason for questioning the DOW as when we last reviewed it at Easter, a good argument existed suggesting the index should climb above 28,000 points. Alas, the market managed the mid 27 thousands, then fell back. It was interesting to note the index trashed this years immediate uptrend before enacting some surprise recovery. Oddly, when this sort of thing happens with European markets, we always fear the worst as any future break below a trend is both expected and will doubtless be vile. But North America is different as, when a price breaks below a trend, then recovers above, the market will invariably climb to safety again.

Often, we feel this is the difference in national psyche – across the pond hoping for the best but on this side, we expect the worst.

If the USA continues “hoping for the best”, it appears movements now exceeding 26,415 calculate with the ambition of an initial 26,637 points. If exceeded, it will be sane to hope for continued recovery toward 27,272. The visuals quite strongly suggest some hesitation if such a level makes an appearance.

By taking the European standpoint, in the scenario of the DOW falling below Red – presently around 26,000 points, reversal risks being quite share down to 25,289 points initially. If broken, secondary is a longer term 24,592 points.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
4:53:40PM	BRENT	58.18	59.23	51.205	43.18	62.97	59.97	60.74	62.41	56.7	‘cess
4:55:17PM	GOLD	1497.6
5:14:31PM	FTSE	7300.45
5:17:44PM	FRANCE	5345.2
5:23:49PM	GERMANY	11762	11669	11646	11575	11755	11770	11797	11839	11711	‘cess
5:29:10PM	US500	2924.42
5:32:25PM	DOW	26323									Shambles
5:34:47PM	NASDAQ	7662
5:36:27PM	JAPAN	20535									‘cess

9/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7253 points. Change of -0.45%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,096,050,006 a change of -17.83%

8/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7286 points. Change of 1.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,419,094,252 a change of 8.46%