Trends And Targets

#Gold #Nasdaq Sometimes, the stock market loves its little “gotcha” moments and we suspect Berkeley share price is about to illustrate this nasty trend. After announcing a slump in annual profits, a bunch of traders doubtless expected the share price to follow the trajectory of a brick dropped from a height. Instead, the share closed the session down just 0.2%!

Does this mean Berkeley’s share price is concealing inherent strength, especially as it reached a high of 3777 during the session, closing at 3552 eventually?

We really doubt it, instead suspecting the market has simply delayed the drop until sufficient number of investors reassure themselves Berkeley is “safe”, a concept reserved for the ridiculously naive when discussing share prices. Instead, the suspect is shall prove worth watching for movement below 3441 anytime soon as this should drive the price down to an initial 3352p. Secondary, if (when) broken, should be 3221p and hopefully a bounce. Unfortunately, there are some fairly severe longer term implications should 3221 break as it will take the price into “lower low” territory, as a consequence forcing us to accept a calculation of 2680p as the eventual bottom ambition.  This would also match the uptrend since the start of price recovery from 2009’s fun and games.

It’s pretty amazing we still must regard an event 10 years ago as the benchmark for current share price movements.

For BKG to signal it’s climbing out of trouble, the price currently needs exceed BLUE on the chart, 3890p at present.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:56:38PM	BRENT	61.75									‘cess
10:04:45PM	GOLD	1361	1341	1334.5	1325	1353	1363	1364.5	1375	1347	‘cess
10:07:00PM	FTSE	7411.77
10:20:11PM	FRANCE	5525									‘cess
10:27:43PM	GERMANY	12317									Shambles
10:39:20PM	US500	2926.77									‘cess
10:41:16PM	DOW	26506									‘cess
10:43:28PM	NASDAQ	7668.49	7600	7564	7523	7659	7687	7693	7724	7605
10:45:17PM	JAPAN	21327									‘cess

 

19/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of -0.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,591,737,284 a change of -3.5%

#Nasdaq #CAC40 Our report last Sept on the Scottish soft drink manufacturer (link here), proved rather successful, despite them gaining notoriety due to reduced sugar content of their staple product. In fact, the share price has proved capable of ridiculing the doomsayers. Even today, the tweet below appeared from some amiable fanatic who’d stockpiled a supply!

When we last reviewed A G Barr, we’d postulated 867p as a viable long term target and this ambition was achieved – and significantly bettered – during last month. The situation now is mildly interesting with movement now above 980 suggesting some continued growth toward 1027p next. If bettered, secondary is a longer term 1092p. Of course, we’ve got a “however”.

Our prior prediction of 867p has been exceeded but from a Big Picture viewpoint, it was a pretty major target level and one we’d expect some volatility around. Rather curiously, only now does it appear some collywobbles are appearing as below 906p is expected to enter slight reversal down to 860p next. We would expect a rebound at 860p, if only due to the market viewing the share price as “back-testing” (a nonsense term) the prior target level. Should 860p break, then we can calculate our secondary at 810p and visually, this is a point where it really must fizz a bit.

For now, we suspect some reversals are coming today the 860p, prior to another stab upward. Quite oddly, this is still showing a longer term aspiration up at 1377, an ambition which has remained valid since the price was in the 5 pound range!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:34:39PM	BRENT	61.74									‘cess
10:36:57PM	GOLD	1347.25									Success
10:39:27PM	FTSE	7449.98									Success
10:42:59PM	FRANCE	5507.2	5437	5407	5363	5493	5510	5525.5	5579	5438	Success
10:44:14PM	GERMANY	12344.24									Success
10:46:27PM	US500	2921.07									Success
10:49:25PM	DOW	26493.7									Success
10:51:34PM	NASDAQ	7643.37	7508	7499.5	7436	7617	7691	7736	7782	7563	Success
10:54:57PM	JAPAN	21244									Success

18/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7443 points. Change of 1.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,830,875,186 a change of 34.03%

#Gold #SP500 At time of writing, 1.2540. It has been a few months since we reviewed this. The pairing attempted to strengthen and then failed. Now, it’s hovering with some intent toward weakness. We’re amazed to report, despite Brexit nonsense, Tory Leadership nonsense, or a US President visiting, nothing important has actually happened so far but… there are risks.

The big problem immediately is at 1.2525.   Travel below such a level now calculates with the potential of a visit to 1.240 next. Secondary, if broken, comes in at 1.2222 along with a fairly confident looking rebound potential. However, the big picture takes issues, should 1.222 break for any reason as the uptrend in RED since 1984 risks being ignored in favour of continual reversal down to 1.1677.

To be blunt, if it were a share, we’d already assume the intention will be 1.1677 as some sort of “bottom”, due to three quite distinct scenario pointing at this potential target. Thankfully, the pairing does not require a great deal of work to rubbish such a prospect, needing only better 1.310 (BLUE) to spoil all three trading calculations. In plain English, for those with horribly deep pockets, 1.310 is your stop loss level.

Surprisingly, there’s a tighter indicator which will suggest some relativistic strength is present. The pair need recover above 1.280 where we calculate movement toward 1.30 is possible. This creates the situation where even above 1.30 should give early warning it is “probably” not about to drop off a cliff.

For now, we suspect it’s heading to 1.1677, hopefully as bottom. Unfortunately, we do have numbers further down the line.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:50:35PM	BRENT	60.42
9:52:24PM	GOLD	1339.84	1332	1327	1316	1344	1344	1347	1352	1336	‘cess
9:54:09PM	FTSE	7374								7332
9:55:38PM	FRANCE	5393.7								5367	Success
9:58:01PM	GERMANY	12094.66								12072
9:59:55PM	US500	2892.42	2882	2879	2872	2897	2900	2911.5	2927	2886
10:11:09PM	DOW	26142
10:12:37PM	NASDAQ	7538
10:14:53PM	JAPAN	21139

 

17/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7357 points. Change of 0.16%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,096,653,983 a change of -8.18%

#Brent #DAX The price of GOLD appears on the verge of becoming properly interesting again. Of course, this has only occurred since we started to speculate whether  Bitcoin was becoming the new ‘contrary’ indicator for the markets, overall. But now, something quite useful seems to be awakening Gold from its recent slumbers.

Perhaps we’re being churlish, describing the metal stuck in a 300 dollar range since 2014 as a “slumber” but a glance at the chart below illustrates, despite it going up and down a bit, we’d need be generous to attribute any link to Gold behaviour with, for instance, Dow Jones behaviour. However, all this appears to be on the point of changing but with an important caveat. If the metal actually CLOSES a day above 1350 dollars – or trades beyond 1357 dollars – there is a very reasonable excuse to speculate on some coming reasonable growth.

Visually there’s a historical issue at the 1350 level, thanks to a glass ceiling being in place since June 2014. If we forget arithmetic and simply use common sense, once the shiny stuff is seen solidly exceeding this Glass Ceiling (or Flat Trend), a majority of traders will assume, correctly we suspect, Gold is heading skyward. Thus far, we’ve only one reservation regarding its prospects and we’ve circled it on the chart.

The price broke the BLUE downtrend at 1288 dollars. Since the point of trend break, the metal has closed a couple of sessions below the point of trend break. This sort of thing tends dampen enthusiasm for the future, along with fouling our calculations.

For now, we can calculate trades above 1357 should bring an initial 1385 within range. If such a level is bettered, our secondary calculates at 1401 dollars though, to be honest, it could easily continue acceleration toward 1537, a level where some hesitation seems essential.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
11:56:11AM	BRENT	61.56	60.3	59.475	58.56	61.67	61.95	62.19	62.82	60.95
11:58:15AM	GOLD	1342.32									Success
12:00:47PM	FTSE	7373									Shambles
12:02:55PM	FRANCE	5372.5
12:04:48PM	GERMANY	12126	12046	12014	11951	12111	12136	12148	12182	12076
12:07:48PM	US500	2890.92
12:13:04PM	DOW	26118.2
12:17:07PM	NASDAQ	7479.75
12:19:18PM	JAPAN	21040

14/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7345 points. Change of -0.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,550,869,325 a change of 12.74%

#Brent #France Despite enjoying a horrific F1 season, Ferrari share price appears to be resilient. We’d assumed, following last weekends attempt to “cheat” their way to victory, the price would take a hammering but instead, it remains on track with hope of giving further growth to new highs.

The furore over a Ferrari driver who, when pressured for the lead, drove off track, cutting a corner. Once the car was completely off track, the following Mercedes was thus in the lead until the Ferrari bloke rejoined the track and tried force him into the wall. For a few days, plenty of ex-F1 drivers were moaning Ferrari should not have suffered a penalty, that chorus of complaint abruptly stopping when technical data was published showing exactly what the Ferrari guy had done. There’s nothing quite like a bit of controversy to make a race interesting but we’d question why the Ferrari just didn’t cede the place they’d gained unfairly?

Perhaps the more interesting thing about this nonsense is final proof Ferrari performance on track has nothing to do with their share price!

The immediate situation allows for moves above 155.75 to provoke continued growth to 160 and a new all time high. Of greater interest is the secondary, should 155.75 be exceeded. We calculate Ferrari has sufficient impetus for a longer term boost to 185. For it all to go wrong, the share requires closing a session below 132 dollars. While perhaps below the immediate uptrend at 140 will serve to cancel the future, we’d really prefer the 132 level as the “safe” point for stop loss.

FTSE for FRIDAY Less controversial the Ferrari but no less exciting (okay, that’s rubbish), the UK index broke the immediate uptrend for 2019, only to recover above it a few weeks later. In fact, from a bigger picture perspective, it’s difficult not to admit we suspect the next major point of interest is around the 7,600 level. Our usual logic implies this means short positions are liable to underperform.

Near term, reversal below 7350 suggests coming travel down to 7300, a point we’d expect a rebound. In fact, we’d have considerable alarm if 7300 breaks as reversal to 7230 and below becomes very possible.

More likely, it appears moves below 7381 should power recovery to a truly useless 7392 points. What surprises, if 7392 is exceeded, is our secondary at 7471 points, along with a challenge of the downtrend since last year. Recent, often grudging, movements of the FTSE tend suggest hoping for a 100 point day should join other ambitions, such as wishing the media would focus less Brexit and political leadership campaigns. Surely there’s a cat up a tree somewhere, deserving an in-depth report.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:47:40PM	BRENT	60.98	59.41	58.665	57.48	61.03	62.22	62.4375	62.9	60.37	‘cess
9:49:13PM	GOLD	1342.08									‘cess
9:54:08PM	FTSE	7376.82
9:56:01PM	FRANCE	5371.5	5352	5335	5303	5393	5395	5412	5432	5357
9:58:10PM	GERMANY	12180									‘cess
10:00:15PM	US500	2894.42
10:02:11PM	DOW	26121.6									Shambles
10:15:23PM	NASDAQ	7508.37
10:20:14PM	JAPAN	21062									Success

13/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7368 points. Change of 0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,923,428,175 a change of -21.53%

#NK225 #NasdaqIt’s worrying, how often we find ourselves examining shares with a view to decide “is it cheap yet?” The latest candidate, Pendragon, thankfully does not require the Wheeler Dealers treatment to make our mind up. In fact, a glance at the chart since 2009 should give sufficient warning.

It’s a bit surprising seeing one of the stars of the motor trade appear on the naughty step. Given low interest rates, along with massive improvements in fuel economy, we’d assumed cars were virtually driving themselves out of the showrooms. Similarly, the plethora of new vehicles cluttering up traffic jams appears to confirm someone, somewhere, is selling a lot of cars and, presumably, making a profit from it. However, there’s nothing quite like a Profit Warning to utterly foul a share price.

As the chart illustrates pretty clearly, the uptrend since 2009 has now been broken with the price forced below. It’s pretty unlikely it has seen bottom on the first surge, instead appearing  to suggest weakness now below 16.5p will prove capable of reversal to 13.5p and hopefully, a rebound. There are some quite extreme implications should the 13.5p level break as there’s the risk of freefall down to a longer term 4.70p. Visually, along with experience, tends suggest some sort of rebound by the 13.5p level but whether it lasts will greatly depend on if 13.5p breaks.

To give the impression this has all been a dreadful mistake, the share price needs reclaim RED which indicates 22.5p presently. If we accept the market has just indicated a new trend is commencing, we’re not holding our breath for such a signal anytime soon.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:56:25PM	BRENT	59.5									Success
9:58:10PM	GOLD	1333.58									Success
10:01:25PM	FTSE	7363.98									Success
10:03:26PM	FRANCE	5367
10:05:35PM	GERMANY	12114.41									‘cess
10:07:32PM	US500	2880.52
10:09:35PM	DOW	26014.8
10:11:33PM	NASDAQ	7471.35	7456	7431.5	7377	7502	7521	7535.5	7562	7471
10:13:36PM	JAPAN	21050	21021	20934	20801	21197	21200	21276.75	21314	21030	Success

 

12/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7367 points. Change of -0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,274,158,811 a change of 15.18%

#DOW #NASDAQ Last time we reviewed Ted Baker was in December last year (link here) and the results since have proven quite spectacular. Successfully predicting a rise, while expecting a share price to fall is something fraught with danger. Somehow, Ted Baker managed fulfil all criteria, going up, meeting targets and then heading down anyway. Slightly mad!

For now, the issues are fairly straightforward. We’d projected 980 as a fairly major point of interest – in a drop cycle which was yet to happen last December – and now, the share has broken below such a point, closing at 955p on 11th June 2019. As a result, we’re pretty far from convinced Ted Baker is “cheap” and worthy of any attention. Instead, it now appears ongoing weakness below 939 looks capable of continued reversal toward 789p next. It’s absolutely crucial 789p is not breached on an initial surge downward of “real” bottom, the point at which we’d hope for a bounce with some integrity, calculates at 582p.

We cannot reliably calculate any drop target below 582p which is not prefaced with a minus sign…

Now we are reassured as to which trend TED is adhering (clue: RED) the share apparently needs better 1545 simply to regain the trend. We’ve considerable doubts this shall prove possible anytime soon as it appears the market is intend on starting a brand new trend for the share. In fact, at present it requires exceed 1122p just to give a slight hint the drop has been overcooked (which does happen). But for now, there’s a strong argument suggesting Ted Baker is hanging on “a shoogly peg”, to employ an apt Scottish term.

Should it reach 582p, we shall become very interested in what comes next.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:25:05PM	BRENT	61.76
10:26:35PM	GOLD	1327.76									‘cess
10:30:30PM	FTSE	7393.37									‘cess
10:33:23PM	FRANCE	5401									‘cess
10:35:53PM	GERMANY	12150.42									‘cess
10:41:35PM	US500	2887.07
10:43:58PM	DOW	26058.7	25990	25932	25836	26189	26258	26278	26444	26050	‘cess
10:45:38PM	NASDAQ	7514.92	7486	7448.5	7399	7544	7597	7618	7662	7526	‘cess
10:47:53PM	JAPAN	21184									‘cess

11/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7398 points. Change of 0.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,447,131,649 a change of 38.68%

10/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7375 points. Change of 0.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,927,877,834 a change of -29.61%