Trends And Targets

#Brent #Dax Currently, Bitcoin is cheerfully ignoring conventional trends, instead paying scrupulous attention to a “horizontal trend”. As mentioned previously, the phenomena of ‘The Glass Ceiling’ has been scrupulously adhered to since September last year. This confirmation of a trend is usually a pretty safe signal for future movement and in the case of Bitcoin, it’s at 10,580 dollars.

Visually, movements above 10,580 look capable of providing gains against Bitcoin to an initial 11,744 with secondary, if beaten, calculating at 12,720. Importantly, if Bitcoin opts to adhere is its usual movement ‘rules’, some hesitation can be anticipated at each target level, should the scenario trigger!

Of course, there’s absolutely no certainty we should anticipate future growth. Instead, the converse looks pretty possible.

Weakness continuing below 9,610 suggests downward travel to an initial 8,916 dollars. If broken, secondary works out at 7,665 and we’d hope for a rebound at such a level. The implications, with any breach of 7,665, are grim. The existence of a 3rd level drop target of 6,079 takes the price into the land of ‘lower lows’ with a logical long term bottom at 3,145 dollars.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:43:20PM	BRENT	57.29	56.12	55.68	55.09	56.83	57.35	57.5275	57.83	56.7	‘cess
9:44:45PM	GOLD	1584.23									‘cess
9:46:40PM	FTSE	7416.6									‘cess
9:48:39PM	FRANCE	6073.2
9:50:19PM	GERMANY	13764	13706	13691.5	13659	13758	13789	13821.5	13860	13727
9:51:51PM	US500	3382.22									‘cess
9:53:54PM	DOW	29416.5
9:55:18PM	NASDAQ	9626.67
9:57:59PM	JAPAN	23537									‘cess

 

14/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7409 points. Change of -0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,485,879,910 a change of -17.68%

13/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7452 points. Change of -1.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,664,066,181 a change of 30.17%

12/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7534 points. Change of 0.47%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,119,461,685 a change of -10.2%

11/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7499 points. Change of 0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,701,269,309 a change of 0.17%

10/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7446 points. Change of -0.27%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,691,847,581 a change of -12.91%

7/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7466 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,535,596,145 a change of 5.4%

6/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7504 points. Change of 0.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,200,545,970 a change of -22.21%

#FTSE #DOW Centrica must be tempting a bunch of folk hoping to jump in, viewing the price as a “bargain”. We have doubts, hoping it shall bounce around the 60p mark but worried, ‘cos if broken, the big picture suggests “bottom” may reside around 40p. Needs a miracle above the 90p level to foul up these prospects!

As for the FTSE for Friday, we’re more than a little concerned about the drop experienced on Thursday. When we issued our 10am report to clients, we’d speculated on the market achieving a bottom at 7407 points. Somehow or other, the FTSE contrived to reach 7406.9 around 11:30am, showing half hearted bounces in the period since. Despite a bunch of day traders doubtless viewing the chart, gleefully assuming “double bottom” and expecting Friday to show gains, we’re not entirely convinced. There’s something a bit funny going on with international futures – mainland Europe and the US behaving as if Friday should experience recovery, the FTSE rather less so.

Weakness now below 7406 points calculates with an initial drop target at 7368 points. If (when) broken, our secondary comes along at  7310 points and we’d hope for a real bounce at such a level. If triggered, tightest stop is at 7442 points.

In the event the market (the FTSE during trading hours) manages above 7442, our initial ambition is for movement to 7470 points. If bettered, secondary calculates up at 7503 points.

This week has been difficult and we suspect health fears have knocked the FTSE off its track to head to 7690 points

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:11:28PM	BRENT	56.48	55	54.505		55.81	56.8	57.1875		55.8	‘cess
10:13:24PM	GOLD	1576.78	1564	1559.5		1573	1579	1580.5		1571	Success
10:15:26PM	FTSE	7453.67	7402	7393.5		7452	7473	7483		7415	Success
10:17:25PM	FRANCE	6084.7	6025	5999		6063	6099	6116		6049	‘cess
10:19:27PM	GERMANY	13743.16	13667	13649		13732	13762	13789.5		13708	‘cess
10:21:48PM	US500	3380.07	3354	3344.5		3373	3381	3385.355		3363	‘cess
10:24:03PM	DOW	29465	29308	29234		29400	29528	29589.5		29411	Success
10:26:15PM	NASDAQ	9617.27	9514	9478.5		9590	9637	9665		9585	‘cess
10:28:24PM	JAPAN	23727	23564	23507.5		23679	23782	23823		23687	Success

 

13/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7452 points. Change of -1.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,664,066,181 a change of 30.17%

12/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7534 points. Change of 0.47%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,119,461,685 a change of -10.2%

11/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7499 points. Change of 0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,701,269,309 a change of 0.17%

10/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7446 points. Change of -0.27%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,691,847,581 a change of -12.91%

7/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7466 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,535,596,145 a change of 5.4%

6/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7504 points. Change of 0.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,200,545,970 a change of -22.21%

5/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7482 points. Change of 0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,970,542,064 a change of 19.14%

 

#France #Germany Our first analysis this year (link) covered #Gold, proposing movement to 1,602 dollars. At the time of writing, the metal was trading at 1,552, thus the proposal fairly significant. Literally within the week, the metal successfully oozed upward, hitting and slightly exceeding our target level. Crucially, the price did not actually close a session anywhere near our 1,602, therefore opening the doors of suspicion for the immediate future.

One good thing which came out of the movement to 1,602 was fairly basic and simple. It proved we’ve been watching the correct trend, suggesting mapping the price against the Blue trend line (dates back to 2011) has been the correct approach. But in light of a barrage of reports from China, we’re more than a little surprised the price of the metal has not shot upward, thanks to Gold (once) being regarded as a natural safe haven.

Hopefully it’s the case the current media game of CoronaVirus Bingo, trying to produce headlines with how many people “could” die, is being ignored by a world, already punch drunk from ongoing headlines produced by journalists who read something some bloke wrote on Twitter! Today, the Metro in London managed 45 million as their contribution to a climate of fear.

The immediate scenario with Gold is somewhat surprising. Weakness now below 1,555 (Red) threatens reversal to an initial 1,530 dollars. If broken, our secondary calculation is at 1,500, along with a fair chance of a bounce. The surprise against these numbers? It will return the price of the metal below the long term downtrend!

Alternately, if the metal now finds itself trading above just 1,600, strength to 1,645 now looks possible with secondary, if bettered, coming in at 1,685 dollars.

We’re pretty hesitant, suspecting the price shall go up, surprised it has not already done so. Our in-house mantra remains, “if it ain’t goin’ up, it’s goin’ down,” with the result the near term Red uptrend is probably worth keeping an eye on.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:14:24PM	BRENT	56.31									Success
10:16:56PM	GOLD	1566.49
10:18:44PM	FTSE	7545.03									‘cess
10:27:40PM	FRANCE	6114	6059	6042.5	6018	6085	6117	6123.5	6175	6067	Success
10:30:27PM	GERMANY	13784	13639	13585	13518	13728	13786	13802	13866	13693	Success
10:32:03PM	US500	3380.52									‘cess
10:34:22PM	DOW	29541.1									‘cess
10:42:01PM	NASDAQ	9611.12
10:43:37PM	JAPAN	23969									Shambles

 

 

12/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7534 points. Change of 0.47%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,119,461,685 a change of -10.2%

11/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7499 points. Change of 0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,701,269,309 a change of 0.17%

10/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7446 points. Change of -0.27%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,691,847,581 a change of -12.91%

7/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7466 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,535,596,145 a change of 5.4%

6/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7504 points. Change of 0.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,200,545,970 a change of -22.21%

5/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7482 points. Change of 0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,970,542,064 a change of 19.14%

4/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7439 points. Change of 1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,690,102,462 a change of 18.21%

#FTSE #NASDAQ Our 31st October review of Eurasia (link) proved accurate. It also confirmed our grasp of time is tenuous at best, the share taking until the start of February to trigger a rise. And now, having achieved our 7.25p target, the share has been suspended from trading, leaving us wondering about our level of prescience.

It truly is a puzzle, the market only choosing to display the share price as CLOSING above 7.25p on the very day it was suspended, for some reason choosing 7.3p as the “closing price” on a day when the ordinary mortal couldn’t actually trade. Needless to say, a bunch of orders were shown as executed, the final “trade” of the day showing as 7.25p anyway! Quite why these trades took place is a bit of a raised eyebrow, 1/2 million at 8:05am through to one million showing at 4:07pm. According to our reports, all trades show a “buy” indicator.

We’re a little confused at this.

We find ourselves in a strange situation, releasing commentary against a share which isn’t trading. It’s a share which successfully hit and exceeded our secondary target during the last four sessions and now, it’s a share showing as closing at 7.3p, above our secondary.

Therefore it must be regarded as primed for future rises? (by just 0.05p, not particularly convincing)

Presumably it’s hoped the suspension shall be short lived, creating a situation where movement now above 7.9p (the prior highest intraday trading price) looks perfectly capable of a lift to 9p next. If exceeded, we can now calculate secondary at a more encouraging 11.75p eventually. In line with our grasp of timeframes, the secondary target could be longer term or perhaps the day after suspension is lifted. The Big Picture gives 19.75p as a major target for the future, one which requires the price to shrink below 4p to utterly cancel.

This brings us to the glaringly obvious. The stock market, always a kind and generous place, will doubtless be perfectly capable of throwing some reversals at the price following trade recommencing. So long as any market games do not drag the price below Blue (the long term downtrend), we shall be fairly relaxed but obviously, should it be taken below the critical line, we’ll need revisit the numbers in a panic.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:43:57PM	BRENT	54.34
10:45:35PM	GOLD	1568.68									‘cess
10:54:20PM	FTSE	7505.53	7484	7468	7448	7522	7528	7543	7592	7480	Success
10:55:42PM	FRANCE	6051.5									‘cess
10:57:33PM	GERMANY	13636									Success
10:58:59PM	US500	3360.62									‘cess
11:00:58PM	DOW	29309									Success
11:02:22PM	NASDAQ	9529.49	9490	9457	9409	9550	9601	9627	9672	9531	‘cess
11:05:17PM	JAPAN	23913									Success

11/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7499 points. Change of 0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,701,269,309 a change of 0.17%

10/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7446 points. Change of -0.27%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,691,847,581 a change of -12.91%

7/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7466 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,535,596,145 a change of 5.4%

6/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7504 points. Change of 0.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,200,545,970 a change of -22.21%

5/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7482 points. Change of 0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,970,542,064 a change of 19.14%

4/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7439 points. Change of 1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,690,102,462 a change of 18.21%

3/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 0.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,659,461,897 a change of -7.45%

#Gold #DAX When we last reviewed Versarien in September, we gave some fairly straightforward criteria for the end of the world. Alas, three weeks following our report, the share triggered a reversal cycle and the rest, as they say, is history. Despite the share meeting our drop target of 54p, it also broke below and thus now has some risky potentials.

With a low of 46p, we have some hope for a bounce before it hits 39p. Whether any bounce proves sustainable is open to question. If the price breaks 39p on a further surge downward, our inclination will be to hope the price bottoms at 21p. Previously, we’d felt “ultimate” bottom would prove to be 21p but unfortunately, the speed of descent has widened the calculation, now giving 13p as “ultimate”, a point which we cannot calculate below.

There’s a bit of a fly in the ointment with all this misery!

Perhaps the low of 46p shall be deemed sufficiently close to 39p to provoke a rebound. If this is indeed the case, the implication is of strength above 55p apparently being capable of an initial 62p. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at 72p, hopefully placing the share in position for some miracles in the longer term.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:58:02PM	BRENT	53.47									Success
9:59:53PM	GOLD	1572.43	1567	1564.5	1560	1575	1578	1580	1591	1570	‘cess
10:01:33PM	FTSE	7469.37									‘cess
10:06:18PM	FRANCE	6031.5
10:17:06PM	GERMANY	13538	13426	13392	13340	13503	13550	13603	13663	13463
10:19:20PM	US500	3353.77									Shambles
10:22:16PM	DOW	29289.5									Shambles
10:24:04PM	NASDAQ	9519.62
10:26:25PM	JAPAN	23697									‘cess

 

10/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7446 points. Change of -0.27%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,691,847,581 a change of -12.91%

7/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7466 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,535,596,145 a change of 5.4%

6/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7504 points. Change of 0.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,200,545,970 a change of -22.21%

5/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7482 points. Change of 0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,970,542,064 a change of 19.14%

4/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7439 points. Change of 1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,690,102,462 a change of 18.21%

3/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 0.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,659,461,897 a change of -7.45%

31/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7286 points. Change of -1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,115,076,170 a change of 9.99%

#Brent #CAC40 Judging by some emails, internet chatroom gossips are suggesting an expectation of “something” happening here. We need to stress, we’ve only been asked to review the numbers against this, not to check any fundamentals or whatever. Fridays drop was certainly scary, giving considerable food for thought.

Firstly, we calculated a logical bottom against this at 696p. It closed Friday at 700p, so no immediate reason for panic, aside from the important detail the share price actually moved below 696p during the session. It did so with a spike downward at 4pm, almost like the market was snatching a “sell order” prior to movement in the other direction! There is now some fairly serious danger, should the share now trade below 678p as it enters a zone where the Big Picture calculates with an initial target of 522, followed by a logical bottom of 6.5p. Visually, this is quite absurd, made possible by the massive drop last December.

However, the share DID NOT close below 696p, so we’re hopeful some sort of bounce is coming.

Near term, any excuse to better 806p calculates with an initial ambition of 871p, a fairly sedate ambition but worthy of attention is the price manages above such a level. Our secondary calculates at 1162p but realistically, if positive news is involved, it could accelerate pretty swiftly to 1527p. This is a heck of a jump, made possible by the severity of the shares reversals.

Our suspicion is some sort of rebound is expected anytime now. Here’s hoping!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
3:28:22PM	BRENT	54.52	54.46	54.215	53.42	55.25	55.48	55.74	56.23	54.6
3:31:18PM	GOLD	1570.8									‘cess
4:09:22PM	FTSE	7446.24									‘cess
4:11:04PM	FRANCE	6008.5	5997	5984.5	5963	6031	6044	6049	6067	6011
4:13:53PM	GERMANY	13466.55									Success
4:15:54PM	US500	3324.67									‘cess
4:19:44PM	DOW	29083.2									Success
4:21:40PM	NASDAQ	9392
4:23:59PM	JAPAN	23674

 

7/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7466 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,535,596,145 a change of 5.4%

6/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7504 points. Change of 0.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,200,545,970 a change of -22.21%

5/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7482 points. Change of 0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,970,542,064 a change of 19.14%

4/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7439 points. Change of 1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,690,102,462 a change of 18.21%

3/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 0.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,659,461,897 a change of -7.45%

31/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7286 points. Change of -1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,115,076,170 a change of 9.99%

30/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7381 points. Change of -1.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,559,853,454 a change of 15.61%

#FTSE #Gold #DOW ‘The Week The World Didn’t End’ would best describe February’s first few days. Brexit day came, flags were shuffled, nothing happened, and the band played on. The FTSE appears to have noticed this, now it’s poised for some gains in the days ahead. At least, we think so.

Our favored refrain, ‘if it were a share’ is especially valid at present, recent movements presenting a pretty strong argument in favour of a cycle commencing up to almost 7,900 points.

Of course, there’s a problem thanks to movement of the last week suggesting a stutter around the 7,700 level. Visually, this presents a slight problem, matching the high of mid January, thus perfectly able to cause some hesitation. However, achieving the 7,700 plateau would also break the downtrend since May 2018, creating a situation where positive market sentiment will find growth hard to restrain.

Hopefully all politicians keep quiet, the Coronavirus drama fades out, and newspaper headline writers start to behave responsibly, especially the pair of muppets who appear on Sky’s Newspaper review program!

Near term, FTSE strength exceeding 7534 points looks capable of a rise to an initial 7588 points. If bettered, secondary calculates at 7605 points. If triggered, the tightest stop looks like 7485 points.

The other side of the coin will be movement below 7470 points, risking reversal to 7435 points initially. If broken, secondary is a bottom (hopefully) at 7407 points. If triggered, tightest stop is at 7521 points.

Our inclination is toward optimism, the prospect of a lazy weekend perhaps fuelling gullibility levels…

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:13:05PM	BRENT	55.21	54.64	54.215		55.47	56.6	57.415		55.53	‘cess
10:15:15PM	GOLD	1567	1554	1548.5		1563	1569	1571		1556	‘cess
10:19:24PM	FTSE	7519.91	7467	7453.5		7520	7536	7585.25		7481
10:22:10PM	FRANCE	6040	6005	5995.5		6043	6049	6065		6012	‘cess
10:24:48PM	GERMANY	13586	13527	13498.5		13576	13602	13630		13532	‘cess
10:27:30PM	US500	3350.04	3333	3321.5		3351	3357	3361		3333	Success
10:30:27PM	DOW	29399.6	29298	29234		29450	29450	29556		29300	‘cess
10:31:54PM	NASDAQ	9455.24	9353	9318		9428	9456	9486.5		9380
10:34:31PM	JAPAN	23987	23664	23548.5		23780	23997	24028		23848	Success

 

6/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7504 points. Change of 0.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,200,545,970 a change of -22.21%

5/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7482 points. Change of 0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,970,542,064 a change of 19.14%

4/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7439 points. Change of 1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,690,102,462 a change of 18.21%

3/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 0.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,659,461,897 a change of -7.45%

31/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7286 points. Change of -1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,115,076,170 a change of 9.99%

30/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7381 points. Change of -1.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,559,853,454 a change of 15.61%

29/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7483 points. Change of 0.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,809,159,339 a change of -5.83%