Trends And Targets

#FTSE #NASDAQ It’s funny but after nearly 30 years of marriage, stumbling into stupid mistakes remains easy. A simple sentence, “the tree looks nice but do you know it’s leaning to the left” provoked a surprising degree of vitriol. It’s easy to forget, a Christmas tree diva does not take criticism well when hours of work are honestly assessed.

The lack of anything resembling a “chill pill” was highlighted, as usual bringing thoughts of cannabis to the fore. Not because of a need to smoke it, just a sad reminder of how virtually impossible it is to not buy genuine CBD oil in the UK. Personal experience, using the stuff to manage pain from an illness, taught of its amazing effects. Now, sadly, due to a tweak to UK Customs controls, real CBD is no longer on the market. Instead, we have products using the moniker but a glance at the ingredient list invariably reveals the weasel words, “made from hemp”, ensuring it has no real value medicinally.

However, we live in hope for change and keep an eye on cannabis share prices also, suspecting the UK shall follow where Canada and the US lead.

We must stress, this legendary product “CBD Oil” has absolutely no psychotropic effect. It just (for the writer anyway) removed the need for potentially addictive opioid based painkillers.

The inset on the chart highlights something fascinating with recent price movements for Aurora. At time of writing, the share price is at 2.52 dollars and the downtrend is at 2.40 dollars. For the last couple of sessions, the price has mirrored the Blue downtrend and, despite the visuals, has closed above the immediate trend. This gives slight hope “something” is due to happen.

We’d regard movement now above 2.64 as capable of provoking an initial 2.88 dollars. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 3.27.

The important detail about the secondary is it risks being fairly game changing. In the event the price manages above 3.27 on an initial surge, ongoing recovery to 4.64 and beyond is expected.

All this hope is based on the price visually managing to avoid our big picture bottom target of 1.98. The share bounced, just above this target level and implies some hope for the future. The detail of it actually trading above the immediate trend, again implies some hope.

Perhaps worth watching in the days ahead.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:40:25PM	BRENT	63.85
9:47:32PM	GOLD	1464.57
9:49:56PM	FTSE	7215.63	7157	7134	7104	7194	7225	7255.5	7296	7187	Success
10:13:39PM	FRANCE	5842.7									Success
10:15:58PM	GERMANY	13086.46									Success
10:20:34PM	US500	3137.27									Success
10:22:21PM	DOW	27919.6									Success
10:36:11PM	NASDAQ	8366.7	8293	8268	8216	8366	8396	8409	8447	8312	Success
10:38:22PM	JAPAN	23438									‘cess

 

10/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7213 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,356,569,029 a change of 11.8%

9/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7233 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,791,115,303 a change of -0.49%

6/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7239 points. Change of 1.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,814,897,408 a change of -16.68%

5/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7137 points. Change of -0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,778,792,615 a change of 2.21%

4/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7188 points. Change of 0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,653,961,334 a change of -20.69%

3/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7158 points. Change of -1.74%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,128,755,265 a change of 21.45%

2/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7285 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,869,768,076 a change of 26.83%

#Gold #US500 If our suspicion of major markets actually showing some strength proves correct, logically Gold should experience some contrary movement. For today, we’re taking a Big Picture update on Gold and the DAX. When viewed together, they present an interesting potential.

Our most recent review against the DAX presented an initial target of 13,240. Secondary, if bettered, was up at 13,652 points. This has changed.

The index indeed achieved our primary target level, exceeding it quite nicely for a few sessions and has spent the last couple of weeks oscillating above and below our 13,240. We’re now able to update this index’ potentials, should it opt to break free of the current hiatus. Apparently movement now above 13,340 should attempt further growth to an initial 13,489 points. If exceeded, secondary now calculates at 14,561, a new all time high and a point at which we’d expect some pretty serious turbulence.

For it all to go wrong against the DAX, the index now needs fall below 12,450 points. Visually there appears little danger of this, the most imminent tripwire being the potential of weakness below 12,900 triggering reversal to 12,554 points.

Gold was last reviewed 3 weeks ago and little has changed. Overall, we still suspect it intends 1602 dollars on the current cycle, once some immediate amateur dramatics complete. It continues to appear the price of Gold intends some near term weakness with the result travel now below 1440 calculates with 1416 as a point at which we’d hope for a rebound. If broken, the price almost must bounce at 1389 dollars.

What interests us from these drop potentials is a simple question. If Gold does indeed reverse, will the price achieving 1416 happen around the same time the DAX (for instance) reaches 13,489 points. Such a correlation of markets would prove fascinating with one suggesting a Short position (and crossed fingers) while the other will want a Long position (and a lucky rabbits foot).

It’s the festive season, we can dream!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:54:12PM	BRENT	63.71
10:58:14PM	GOLD	1462.4	1458	1455.5	1446	1466	1467	1470	1474	1459
11:00:22PM	FTSE	7225.9									Shambles
11:02:33PM	FRANCE	5823.2
11:04:42PM	GERMANY	13073.16
11:08:13PM	US500	3134.17	3129	3123.5	3115	3142	3149	3161.75	3175	3119	‘cess
11:10:31PM	DOW	27891.4
11:26:02PM	NASDAQ	8352									‘cess
11:27:50PM	JAPAN	23347

9/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7233 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,791,115,303 a change of -0.49%

6/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7239 points. Change of 1.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,814,897,408 a change of -16.68%

5/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7137 points. Change of -0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,778,792,615 a change of 2.21%

4/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7188 points. Change of 0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,653,961,334 a change of -20.69%

3/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7158 points. Change of -1.74%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,128,755,265 a change of 21.45%

2/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7285 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,869,768,076 a change of 26.83%

29/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7346 points. Change of -0.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,628,092,745 a change of 28.25%

#DAX #Brent A regular complaint relates to the quantity of media market “experts” queuing up for interviews with prophecies about the end of the world being nigh. In the media, where quantity has no relationship to quality, we thought it perhaps an idea to examine some world markets, trying to define areas where some hesitation appears probable.

Staying close to home, the Euro Stocks 50 (presently trading around 3,690 points, is presently flirting with something we call a “stutter level”, a point at which a glass ceiling will often form. In the case of the EU50, this problem level has been evident since 2017 at 3,685 points and is finally starting to show some sign of hopefully breaking free and move upward. If our thoughts on this scenario are correct, movement now above 3,732 points calculates with an initial ambition at 3,975 points. Only with closure above such a level dare we mention “top” should prove to be around the 4,300 level. Certainly, we’re should this point as an ideal number to try a short with a fairly tight stop at 4,325 if gullible or 4,400 if sane. If historical experience is anything to go by, reversal could see a journey to the 3,000 point level!

The Nasdaq – or US Tech 100 – is presenting an interesting scenario. We’ve a strong argument which favours something traumatic, should the market achieve 8,634 points. While we can calculate a secondary at 9,475 points, we suspect real life shall intrude, especially as the market is already pretty close to our 8,634 target already. Anything now beyond 8,450 looks capable of reaching this level.

The US Market is always quite prescient when approaching major target levels, thankfully often showing a willingness to bypass them by simply gapping the index upward at the open repeatedly. If a cunning plan is to be enacted, it shall be worth watching for these gaps appearing anytime now!

We’re intending spend this week running the numbers against various world indices.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:19:38PM	BRENT	64.12	62.58	62.045	61.18	63.74	64.28	64.59	64.88	63.2	‘cess
10:22:03PM	GOLD	1460.69
4:38:58PM	FTSE	7232									‘cess
4:40:56PM	FRANCE	5871									‘cess
4:43:11PM	GERMANY	13175.02	13052	13001	12941	13135	13181	13199	13220	13111
4:55:14PM	US500	3145.42									Success
4:57:58PM	DOW	28024.7									Success
5:06:46PM	NASDAQ	8401.37									Success
5:08:45PM	JAPAN	23516									‘cess

 

 

6/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7239 points. Change of 1.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,814,897,408 a change of -16.68%

5/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7137 points. Change of -0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,778,792,615 a change of 2.21%

4/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7188 points. Change of 0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,653,961,334 a change of -20.69%

3/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7158 points. Change of -1.74%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,128,755,265 a change of 21.45%

2/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7285 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,869,768,076 a change of 26.83%

29/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7346 points. Change of -0.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,628,092,745 a change of 28.25%

28/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7416 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,608,679,537 a change of -31.8%

#FTSE for FRIDAY, our most popular regular article is now read from Australia to Russia, Reunion Island, Argentina, China and of course the UK and USA. We currently number 41 countries visiting on a Friday. As is said, “No pressure then!”, while writing a cheery near term outlook with a chart more colourful that a childs Xmas card.

Firstly, we need find the all important FTSE Big Number, the point which the market needs break to trash the uptrend (RED) since the crash of 2009. At present, it’s at 6,609 points.

Next, we need review the uptrend (Yellow) since the start of 2016 and it’s at 6875 points.

Finally, we’ve got the uptrend (Green) since the Brexit vote, presently lurking at 6816 points.

Armed with the above 3 numbers, we can decide if the UK stock market is on the verge of collapse. As it’s presently at 7,137, the answer is clearly NO despite suffering a pretty grotty week. The usual suspects can be blamed, the three ‘B’s. Boris, Brexit, and Mr Trump.

Fans of chart patterns (thankfully now following the dinosaurs) will have noted the Head & Shoulders formation on the FTSE during this year. Conventional arithmetic attributed to this pattern suggests the market should relax to 6,607 points. This risks breaking all three major trends, causing a rush for clean underwear. Presently, there is very little making such a drop inevitable. Below 7,000 points would certainly justify some panic though.

However, we do have concerns, thanks to recent movements.

At present, weakness now below 7,130 points risks reversal to an initial 7,098 points. If broken, secondary calculates at 7,026 points. Even visually, there are several reasons to anticipate a rebound, should 7,026 appear. With an election approaching and a fear of “the wrong result”, travel down to such a level makes a lot of sense prior to The Vote. In the event this 7,026 drop target appears and opting for a blind “Long” position, stop needs be pretty wide at 6,950 points.

There’s an issue, should 6,950 break. This would imply a further trip down to 6,844 and probable rebound against the Brexit Vote uptrend in Green.

Additionally, we need consider another factor. Writing about market movements, tossing in loads of numbers, risks utter confusion to the reader as it certainly provokes “number blindness” in the writer. Therefore, with this excellent excuse to pause for a cup of tea, shall return in a moment…

Now armed with a fresh cup of tea, obviously rarely do things move in an utterly straight line, resulting in the scenario of anything near term above 7,181 allegedly being capable of triggering recovery to an initial 7,212 points. If exceeded, secondary calculates at a more interesting 7,261 points. If triggered, the tightest stop is horribly wide at 7,131 points.

Have a good weekend.

FREE FIRST MOVE FRIDAY!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:11:45PM	BRENT	63.27	62.37	61.98			63.86	64.29			‘cess
9:19:07PM	GOLD	1476.33	1472	1466			1480	1482			Shambles
9:24:53PM	FTSE	7142.32	7127	7099.5			7203	7222.5
9:27:15PM	FRANCE	5808.9	5785	5767.5			5850	5866			Success
9:35:58PM	GERMANY	13080	13049	12997			13148	13207.5			Shambles
9:37:46PM	US500	3117.92	3102	3097.5			3120	3126
9:42:24PM	DOW	27683	27552	27487.5			27772	27830			Shambles
9:44:25PM	NASDAQ	8307.37	8268	8255.5			8336	8359.5			Shambles
9:46:38PM	JAPAN	23311	23244	23167.5			23405	23466.5			‘cess

 

5/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7137 points. Change of -0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,778,792,615 a change of 2.21%

4/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7188 points. Change of 0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,653,961,334 a change of -20.69%

3/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7158 points. Change of -1.74%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,128,755,265 a change of 21.45%

2/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7285 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,869,768,076 a change of 26.83%

29/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7346 points. Change of -0.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,628,092,745 a change of 28.25%

28/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7416 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,608,679,537 a change of -31.8%

27/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7429 points. Change of 0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,291,535,835 a change of -43.03%

 

#Nasdaq #Dax As the latest company to discover “accounting errors”, Saatchi share price has plummeted and prompted a few emails. One puzzle has been finally answered, the reason why large corporate accountants seem to change their names? After all, being associated with a major ‘oops’ certainly justifies a swift adjustment of identification. The current acronyms investigating Saatchi, PwC, were brought in once the previous acronym KPMG were dismissed.

Perhaps someone at KPMG shall now suggest the company use their full name in future, to dissociate themselves from the Saachi debacle. After all, Price Waterhouse Coopers successfully left a few scandals behind with their rebranding… All joking aside, there are currently just 4 true international auditors, 3 of which are UK based with KPMG being Netherlands. Corporate bodies are not spoiled for choice, when choosing their auditors.

The writer should perhaps admit to grinding an axe, once paying a large tax sum which could have been substantially reduced, blissfully unaware corporate accountants (mentioned previously) were treating his personal tax liability as “small fry”. Twenty years later, it still irritates.

Saatchi share price movements, while dire, appear to be provoking discussion about a possible takeover attempts anytime now. From our viewpoint, the share has not yet reached bottom as it appears on track for 40p. Certainly, we would expect a bounce around such a level, if only due to it being impossible to calculate below such a point. To get out of trouble, any miracle rebound needs exceed 161p currently, visually an impossible task without the presence of game changing news.

We suspect, quite strongly, this shall prove worth keeping a close eye on in the days/weeks ahead. While the low on the 4th of 69p was certainly “close” to our 40p calculation, from an immediate perspective below 69p should initially target 63p as “last chance saloon”. If 63p breaks, a journey down to the 40p level looks inevitable.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:43:01PM	BRENT	62.89									Success
11:02:16PM	GOLD	1475.41
11:04:07PM	FTSE	7196.15
11:06:35PM	FRANCE	5808.8									Success
11:09:21PM	GERMANY	13155.74	13022	12964.5	12895	13088	13174	13208.25	13249	13098	‘cess
11:11:09PM	US500	3111.42									‘cess
11:14:08PM	DOW	27653.6									Success
11:16:24PM	NASDAQ	8298.07									‘cess
11:18:48PM	JAPAN	23355	23172	23119.5	23033	23313	23379	23416	23591	23236

 

4/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7188 points. Change of 0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,653,961,334 a change of -20.69%

3/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7158 points. Change of -1.74%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,128,755,265 a change of 21.45%

2/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7285 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,869,768,076 a change of 26.83%

29/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7346 points. Change of -0.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,628,092,745 a change of 28.25%

28/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7416 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,608,679,537 a change of -31.8%

27/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7429 points. Change of 0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,291,535,835 a change of -43.03%

26/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,287,781,943 a change of 67.52%

#CAC40 #SP500 Our attempt at being funny with a Xmas Calendar has ‘kinda’ fallen apart with the markets experiencing a truly grotty start to December. Even Greggs, purveyors of future waistline problems, are looking slightly dodgy, despite rumours suggesting they are doing the catering for the Nato lunch at Buck House!

It appears anything near term below 2004 on Greggs should find a bottom, ideally prior to 1885p. Should 1885 break for any reason, the share price “almost” must bounce at 1839p as the implications below such a level look about as unpleasant as that pie vendor beside the main entrance to Waterloo. Or to be plain, 1432 becomes the best hope for surprise recovery, though the Big Picture tells us bottom should end up at 1020p. Hopefully this scenario is unlikely. Painting a picture where a share price halves always feels like a venture into panic mongering.

More hopeful appears any rebound capable of exceeding 2150p should bring the share price up faster than an undiagnosed Coeliac (the gluten thing) looking for a loo, after eating a Greggs sandwich. Initially, we’re calculating growth to 2274p but visually, our secondary calculation of 2458 looks very realistic.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:38:17PM	BRENT	60.93									‘cess
9:40:50PM	GOLD	1477.85									Success
10:05:47PM	FTSE	7185.67									Success
10:18:12PM	FRANCE	5758.9	5695	5681.5	5586	5772	5772	5776	5803	5710	Success
10:20:41PM	GERMANY	13055.56									Shambles
10:23:42PM	US500	3092.12	3069	3059	3045	3107	3104	3109	3126	3079	Success
10:26:54PM	DOW	27495									Success
10:30:15PM	NASDAQ	8254.07									Success
10:32:29PM	JAPAN	23122									Success

 

3/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7158 points. Change of -1.74%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,128,755,265 a change of 21.45%

2/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7285 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,869,768,076 a change of 26.83%

29/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7346 points. Change of -0.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,628,092,745 a change of 28.25%

28/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7416 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,608,679,537 a change of -31.8%

27/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7429 points. Change of 0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,291,535,835 a change of -43.03%

26/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,287,781,943 a change of 67.52%

25/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,544,320,565 a change of 6.78%

#GOLD #DOW Sirius HAD been getting painful, achieving and even breaking our prior (link) drop target at 3.3p. However… it is possible the share is now preening itself in the hope of providing a little Christmas miracle. Aside from the unpleasant detail it’s now calculating with an “ultimate” bottom of minus 17p!

However, if we leave the dreadful reality of real life aside and instead, review movements since May of this year, SXX has managed exceed the immediate downtrend (presently at 3.41255p) and thankfully has spent the last few sessions hovering just above the trend, rather than retreat below. Without a doubt, it is “fingers crossed” time as movement now above 3.9p is supposed to generate a lift to 4.3p next. As the inset highlights, it appears clear the market is reacting to the trend, so hopefully the price can find an excuse to do something positive.

If movement exceeds 4.3p on any initial upward surge, our secondary calculates at 5p.

Visually, such an ambition makes sense as it takes the share price into the region from September, when the price was manipulated downward to 4.7p. It’s the sort of price level where the market would opt to form a glass ceiling until such time Sirius’ hopes for the future improve.

Then again, there is that Minus 17p calculation. Numbers can be funny as presently, SXX actually needs above 17p to essentially cancel this Big Picture drop potential. In fact, even above 13p would regain the historical uptrend, giving considerable hope for the longer term. We’d certainly have strong concerns, if the price manages retreat below the Blue downtrend at 3.41 (as in, actually close below the trend) thanks to reversals becoming very probable. In such a scenario, last chance salon is at 1.4p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:26:15PM	BRENT	60.81
10:28:27PM	GOLD	1462.79	1452	1447.5	1441	1462	1467	1469.5	1476	1456
10:31:25PM	FTSE	7296.29									Success
10:36:49PM	FRANCE	5796.7									Success
10:40:35PM	GERMANY	12991.3									Suc/Sham
10:52:14PM	US500	3113.77									Success
10:55:07PM	DOW	27783.4	27768	27670	27645	27848	27910	27970	28035	27800	Success
10:58:41PM	NASDAQ	8308									Success
11:01:21PM	JAPAN	23177									Success

2/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7285 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,869,768,076 a change of 26.83%

29/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7346 points. Change of -0.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,628,092,745 a change of 28.25%

28/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7416 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,608,679,537 a change of -31.8%

27/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7429 points. Change of 0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,291,535,835 a change of -43.03%

26/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,287,781,943 a change of 67.52%

25/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,544,320,565 a change of 6.78%

22/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 1.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,192,412,665 a change of -5.45%