Trends And Targets

#FTSE #DAX As Davos snowploughs to an end, shall we see the FTSE exhibit its ‘usual’ January bounce or are we about to experience a giant slalom, through a mogul field, populated by the visually impaired on snowboards? Please remember we are analysing the FTSE, not After Hours Futures.

Presently trading around the 7,500 level, the FTSE needs below 7356 to inspire serious alarm. Movement such as this risks taking the market into territory where weakness to an initial 7,000 points becomes possible. Secondary calculates at 6,593 points. Thankfully, the visuals associated with such a trigger event seem fairly unlikely (except for the glass floor at the 7000 level), this making us suspect market reversal is not on the immediate cards. Obviously, ‘stuff’ happens which cannot be factored in but for the present, there’s a lack of force pointing downward. This week, while fairly grotty, has not yet triggered anything scary.

Near term, below 7,503 looks capable of provoking reversal down to 7,469 points. If broken, secondary calculates at 7,412 points. Neither reversal point comes close to challenging the uptrend since 2018.

The other side of the coin, a rather more optimistic outlook, looks at what we should expect if (when) the index exceeds 7,690 points?

Initially, we’re looking for travel up to an initial 7,868 points with secondary, when bettered, up at 8,304 points.

Near term, above 7,530 points calculates with an initial ambition at 7,559 points. If exceeded, our secondary comes in at 7,589 points and gives quite a lot of hope for continued market recovery next week. Curiously, there’s a Glass Ceiling awaiting at 7,630, a point where some hesitation is possible. But as the index will be trading in a zone with a 3rd target level of 7,684 – virtually at the trigger level for Long Term movement, we’re presently inclined toward optimism.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:09:04PM	BRENT	61.55	60.68	60.25		62.1	61.7	62.36		61
10:12:19PM	GOLD	1563.56	1558	1556.75		1567	1569	1574		1556	‘cess
10:18:15PM	FTSE	7551.81	7500	7523.25		7546	7562	7592		7518	‘cess
10:20:26PM	FRANCE	6005.2	5959	5945		6009	6023	6042.5		5977	‘cess
10:23:35PM	GERMANY	13487	13378	13339		13476	13498	13540		13409	‘cess
10:26:07PM	US500	3327.22	3311	3301		3318	3328	3331		3312	‘cess
10:30:48PM	DOW	29168	28958	28894		29112	29193	29274.5		29112	Success
10:34:57PM	NASDAQ	9440.37	9173	9154.5		9204	9244	9267		9184	‘cess
10:37:23PM	JAPAN	23807	23640	23570		23793	23835	23926.5		23760	Success

 

23/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7507 points. Change of -0.85%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,371,375,210 a change of -4.17%

22/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7571 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,604,978,241 a change of 11.63%

21/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7610 points. Change of -0.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,020,947,785 a change of 18.76%

20/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7651 points. Change of -0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,227,858,188 a change of -33.49%

17/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7674 points. Change of 0.85%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,356,734,989 a change of 21.03%

16/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7609 points. Change of -0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,252,079,163 a change of -22.59%

15/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7642 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,784,341,362 a change of 13.94%

 

#France #DOWJONES It’s time for our monthly dip into the rancid waters of the UK’s Retail Banking Sector. So far this year, #RBS hasn’t need seek trouble as the price revels in a period of decline. We’re not even confident a downtrend exists to map movements against, the price tending move with the directional ability of a house fly!

At time of writing, it’s trading around 222p and we’ve a ‘concern’ level flagged at 211.25p. Essentially, if the price next manages trade below such a level, an initial (useless) drop target of 208p is expected. In fairness, we’d expect some sort of bounce at the 208p level, despite any initial break. Our secondary target, and hopefully a sensible bottom, calculates down at 189p. (or 18.9p in old money, prior to their 10:1 reconfiguration in an attempt to hide quite how dire price movements have been)

There’s a pretty major problem, should 189p break.

As the chart shows, 159 lurks below this level but as the price moves into the land of Lower Lows, bottom works out at 114p eventually.

There is (thankfully) a fairly major ‘however’. Circled on the chart was a forced movement to propel RBS above a trend line. At the time, we feared the share could suffer being gapped back below the trend, a market ploy which traditionally leaves investors walking funny. Thankfully, this has not happened (so far) either with RBS, Barclays or Lloyds. This gives us vague hope the market isn’t intending to utterly throttle Retail Bank share prices.

If this is to prove the case, we’d hope for a bounce anytime now. In theory, anything above 226p calculates with an initial potential of 230p, utterly useless in the great scheme of things. But if 230p is exceeded, we’re looking for secondary at 242p along with recovery above the trend. This should be significant, moving the share to relative safety with at least an attempt at the level of the most recent high, our target calculating at 261p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:33:47PM	BRENT	62.43									Success
9:35:30PM	GOLD	1558.91
9:41:41PM	FTSE	7567.33									Shambles
10:04:13PM	FRANCE	5999.2	5997	5978	5947	6034	6068	6081	6109	6025	Success
10:17:55PM	GERMANY	13465									Success
10:19:28PM	US500	3318.37									‘cess
10:21:59PM	DOW	29158	29132	29110.5	29033	29224	29323	29403.5	29494	29214	Success
10:24:50PM	NASDAQ	9176.87									Success
10:26:49PM	JAPAN	23817									Success

 

22/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7571 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,604,978,241 a change of 11.63%

21/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7610 points. Change of -0.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,020,947,785 a change of 18.76%

20/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7651 points. Change of -0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,227,858,188 a change of -33.49%

17/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7674 points. Change of 0.85%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,356,734,989 a change of 21.03%

16/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7609 points. Change of -0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,252,079,163 a change of -22.59%

15/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7642 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,784,341,362 a change of 13.94%

14/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,954,176,416 a change of 15.24%

#FTSE #JAPAN World famous for their Hectorite Clay, along with other famous products we’ve never heard of, we’ve received a few emails regarding #Elementis share price future potentials. A greasy, white, clay, used in cosmetics, it was named after the town/junction of Hector, California, where it was discovered in 1941.

Now we know more about Hectorite than we needed, how’s the share price doing?

At present, it’s hovering on the edge of trouble with closure below 133 indicating coming reversal to an initial 111p with secondary, if broken, at 103p. Visually there appears ample reason to hope for a rebound at such a level. Not least amongst the reasons will be folk reviewing the low of 2011, believing the price must bounce at such a point and executing a buy order, thus creating a self fulfilling scenario.

The other reasons to hope for a bounce, if the 111p / 103p levels appear, comes from our secondary calculation. Below 103p takes the share price into a region where ultimate bottom calculates at 39p, this being a level we cannot comfortably calculate below. Invariably, when there is such a massive gap between an immediate target and “bottom”, any immediate target tends provoke a reasonable level of recoil.

The immediate situation is fairly interesting. Regardless of whether we draw a Red line mapping the “low of day” or “closing price”, the share almost perfectly hit the uptrend since 2009 and has refused to break it. Perhaps this indicates a bounce is immediate due and if this is the case, above 144 allegedly should bring travel to an initial useless 148p. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at 165p and visually will suggest the recent circled drop was overdone. It is fairly unusual for the market to admit such an error unless some miracle news surfaces for a share.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:23:11PM	BRENT	63.92									Success
10:25:22PM	GOLD	1558.99									Success
10:27:45PM	FTSE	7593.87	7571	7543.5	7494	7625	7623	7651	7686	7560	Success
10:29:25PM	FRANCE	6027.2									Success
10:32:32PM	GERMANY	13531									Success
10:34:56PM	US500	3320.22									‘cess
10:41:01PM	DOW	29218									Success
10:43:20PM	NASDAQ	9167.37									Shambles
10:45:30PM	JAPAN	23782	23762	23736.5	23603	23889	23923	23952.5	24016	23815	Success

21/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7610 points. Change of -0.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,020,947,785 a change of 18.76%

20/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7651 points. Change of -0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,227,858,188 a change of -33.49%

17/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7674 points. Change of 0.85%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,356,734,989 a change of 21.03%

16/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7609 points. Change of -0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,252,079,163 a change of -22.59%

15/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7642 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,784,341,362 a change of 13.94%

14/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,954,176,416 a change of 15.24%

13/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7617 points. Change of 0.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,166,914,509 a change of -0.84%

#Gold #US500 Our report on #Fevertree last September (link) did not prove terribly popular with a few readers. Of course, who likes being told “your investment looks dodgy”, when the investor has taken the time to research the company to hell and back. But, rather more often than people like, ‘the computer says’ tends be correct. (link)

Whatever the contents of their trading update on 20th January, as for as ‘the computer’ goes, the writing had been on the bottle for 4 months.

The share price opened the day down, just above our initial drop target of 1632p. Amazingly, following an initial drop below target, after 30 minutes of trading the price recovered and briefly revisited our drop target, almost a gentle kiss to confirm our numbers were correct. Then it dropped like a stone!

The situation now is unbelievably messy as weakness below 1411p suggests ongoing travel down to 1215 with secondary, if (or rather when) broken, calculating at 983p and hopefully a proper rebound. To be honest, we’d prefer if the price bounced before the 983 level as it should imply some residual strength. Of course, there’s an important “however”.

Should the share find sufficient reason to break 983p, it looks like our Ultimate Bottom of 159p risks coming to fruition. This, neatly, would undo all the work of the last 5 years.

To get out of trouble, the share price needs exceed Blue on the chart, presently at 2092p. We’re not optimistic.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:08:26PM	BRENT	64.62								64.48	‘cess
10:10:28PM	GOLD	1560.89	1553.75	1552.5	1549	1561	1563.5	1569.5	1581	1553
10:12:47PM	FTSE	7655.7								7644
10:15:19PM	FRANCE	6081.2								6076
10:19:03PM	GERMANY	13579.25								13529	‘cess
10:23:46PM	US500	3325.37	3315	3311	3305	3326	3329	3336	3345	3315
10:25:40PM	DOW	29336.2								29291
10:29:53PM	NASDAQ	9164								9117
10:32:07PM	JAPAN	24058								24040

 

20/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7651 points. Change of -0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,227,858,188 a change of -33.49%

17/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7674 points. Change of 0.85%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,356,734,989 a change of 21.03%

16/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7609 points. Change of -0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,252,079,163 a change of -22.59%

15/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7642 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,784,341,362 a change of 13.94%

14/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,954,176,416 a change of 15.24%

13/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7617 points. Change of 0.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,166,914,509 a change of -0.84%

10/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,210,689,793 a change of -8.73%

#Brent #Germany We’ve received a few emails regarding Lekoils recent price movements. The AIM used to be notorious for the term “Pump & Dump”, something which mercifully does not happen too often nowadays. However, in the case of Lekoil, their start to the year with a boost to 11p is questionable.

Surprisingly though, the share price had exhibited a glass ceiling at 6.65p with the implication, movement above this level almost had to take the price to 11p. It’s possible the news regarding Quatar at the start of the year started the price moving in a logical uphill path, the target of which almost had to be met before anything else happened. Sometimes, software logic makes little sense – aside from the important detail the share indeed reached 11p, then experienced considerable hesitation.

Finally, the release of news the market perceived as negative has thoroughly stuffed the shares potentials, landing it in a region where our best hope is for a bounce at 0.3p eventually. Of course, there’s a vague chance this “Big Picture” bottom shall remain elusive.

The immediate situation suggests movement above 3.26p should bring recovery to an initial 3.48p. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 4.18p. In fact, unusually, if 4.18p is exceeded, we can give a 3rd target level up at 4.6p. Visually, none of these ambitions give any real hope for the future BUT, if the share were to trade beyond 4.67p, it becomes very possible the drop has been “overcooked” and some genuine recovery should take place.

For the present, we fear the price is now in the hands of “rumour vs reality” price movements but if it were ever to approach 0.3p, we’d hope for a real rebound. Importantly, we cannot calculate below such a level.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:48:46PM	BRENT	64.62	63.14	62.91	62.34	64.23	64.64	64.94	65.54	64
9:50:45PM	GOLD	1557.69
9:52:38PM	FTSE	7680.65									‘cess
9:55:02PM	FRANCE	6104.7									Success
9:57:30PM	GERMANY	13524.25	13465	13440.5	13402	13536	13540	13562.5	13630	13465	‘cess
9:59:26PM	US500	3323.62									‘cess
10:02:17PM	DOW	29312.6									‘cess
10:04:30PM	NASDAQ	9160.62									Success
10:19:45PM	JAPAN	24050

17/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7674 points. Change of 0.85%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,356,734,989 a change of 21.03%

16/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7609 points. Change of -0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,252,079,163 a change of -22.59%

15/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7642 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,784,341,362 a change of 13.94%

14/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,954,176,416 a change of 15.24%

13/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7617 points. Change of 0.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,166,914,509 a change of -0.84%

10/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,210,689,793 a change of -8.73%

9/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7598 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,708,798,775 a change of 5.62%

#France #Nasdaq Since Dec 27th, the FTSE has experienced a 100 point range. This feeling of a “trapped market” hopefully has a chance to ease on Friday 17 Jan with the 3rd Friday intra-day auction at 10:15am. This exercise is designed to correct the value of the FTSE 100 index, clearing up any drift. Sometimes, it can also clear the log jam of a stalled market place.

We can hope! The fly in the ointment comes volumes traded through London being pretty low, thanks to the usual holiday malaise and this lack of trading tends ensure the FTSE Index value doesn’t drift too far from reality with little correction required. When this is considered, in conjunction with the lack of any real direction on the London index, we’re slightly lacking in confidence giving numbers today.

The market should be going up but isn’t. Equally, when reversals are triggered, the market is failing to drop.

The immediate situation for the FTSE calculates as follows. Movement now exceeding 7,651 is supposed to generate a loft to an initial 7,678 points, far from impressive. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at 7,729 points.

Alternately, if the FTSE now finds an excuse to stumble below 7,587 points, it’s supposed to experience some reversal to an initial 7,567 points with secondary, if broken, down at 7,539 points. This sort of nonsense keeps the UK market safely constrained within the straightjacket of a trapped market.

It’s almost like the FTSE is awaiting something important happening before showing its hand. As mentioned earlier, the underlying forces are of an upward expectation, the market needing below 7,225 points to force us to question our optimism for the future. Unless something punctures the 7,225 level, there’s a growing series of calculations suggesting the UK could even aspire to a high of 8,300 points sometime this year.

Near term, we’re far from confident with our expectations, suspecting Friday shall bring some reversals. This will even tie in with the index refusing to better BLUE on the chart, the downtrend since 2018.

 Have a good weekend.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:20:59PM	BRENT	64.19
10:22:43PM	GOLD	1553.08
10:27:23PM	FTSE	7624.23
10:30:49PM	FRANCE	6050.5	6018	6007.5	5991	6044	6052	6059	6072	6024
10:34:42PM	GERMANY	13469									Shambles
10:38:41PM	US500	3317.32									Success
10:41:33PM	DOW	29297									‘cess
10:47:00PM	NASDAQ	9126.12	9045	9026.5	8993	9082	9127	9135	9147	9060	‘cess
10:49:27PM	JAPAN	24087									Success

16/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7609 points. Change of -0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,252,079,163 a change of -22.59%

15/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7642 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,784,341,362 a change of 13.94%

14/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,954,176,416 a change of 15.24%

13/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7617 points. Change of 0.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,166,914,509 a change of -0.84%

10/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,210,689,793 a change of -8.73%

9/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7598 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,708,798,775 a change of 5.62%

8/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7574 points. Change of 0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,992,564 a change of 14%

#SP500 #DOW Despite a company name like a quaint pub, beside a slow river on a summer day, Gallifords share price moves are proving less than alluring. Our previous report (link) was loaded with concern as the share price risked a traumatic drop. Starting this year with reversal from 8 quid to 103p justified our concern, along with raising further concerns for the future.

Shareholders are probably pretty aggravated about both the drop and the method employed. The share price was gapped (manipulated) upward above the downtrend since 2017, mid way through last December. Generally, this sort of price movement gives considerable optimism for the longer term, indicating the market wants the price to head upward. Of course, in this instance, it all went wrong with the official Share Exchange Ratio & Listing Details announcement at the start of this year.

By any standards, price movements have become messy and the share needs above 173p to give hope of recovery up to an initial 211p. Above 211p and we shall need revisit the numbers.

The “bottom” of 103p achieved at the start of this year was, according to our calculations, pretty concise. GFRD cannot afford movement below 103p at present as we cannot calculate further drop targets. With a share price being moved down, exactly to the 103p level, we’ve some hope the price shall simply mess around until news flow from the company provides genuine force to drive the share.

As a result, weakness anytime now below 150 risks reversal to an initial 138p. If broken, secondary is at 120p and hopefully a bounce.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:11:01PM	BRENT	63.81
10:12:57PM	GOLD	1556.9									Success
10:15:11PM	FTSE	7631.68
10:17:25PM	FRANCE	6021									Shambles
10:19:07PM	GERMANY	13419.91
10:20:51PM	US500	3293.77	3274	3265	3254	3294	3298	3302.5	3312	3280	‘cess
10:24:34PM	DOW	29079	28835	28736.5	28604	28988	29135	29194.5	29337	28958
10:26:12PM	NASDAQ	9048.12
10:28:09PM	JAPAN	23955

 

15/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7642 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,784,341,362 a change of 13.94%

14/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,954,176,416 a change of 15.24%

13/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7617 points. Change of 0.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,166,914,509 a change of -0.84%

10/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,210,689,793 a change of -8.73%

9/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7598 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,708,798,775 a change of 5.62%

8/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7574 points. Change of 0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,992,564 a change of 14%

7/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7573 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,303,337 a change of 0.44%