Trends And Targets

GBP:EUR and the strange case of moving goalposts

A common complaint when attempting to extract logic from a given situation, is of goalposts moving. Pausing and considering this, wouldn’t football become an interesting sport if the goalposts moved around randomly during a match!

How to justify spending 3 hours troubleshooting why discrete Google Adverts were not appearing on website?

Completely forgot Adblock was running on my browser and hadn’t whitelisted our own site. Ooooops.

Have a good weekend.

FTSE for FRIDAY #Nasdaq #Brent The UK market continues to power itself upward, lifted by what? We bang on about how important “Higher Highs” can be, a notion amply proved by market moves since March 17th. Once a market starts growing, it becomes difficult to slow things down, despite an entire political class’ best efforts.

The immediate situation for the FTSE is slightly confusing. Generally when a “Higher High” cycle commences, the market will only grow so far before some doubt establishes, provoking a reversal to the point it all started. In the case of the FTSE, this means we should not be aghast to witness travel to around 7250 in the days ahead. Prior to this, we’d hope anything near term above 7371 should bring some oomph for an initial 7386 points. If bettered, secondary is at 7402 points and an ideal level from which relaxation can be expected. This sort of ambition comes nowhere close to bothering the BLUE downtrend, thus giving the impression hope remains for the longer term.

Unfortunately, if taking our rhetoric as gospel, the index could continue to 7454 should 7402 be exceeded, so that’s a reasonable level to try a stop loss at. Our suspicion, should Brexit be delayed, is of reversal to 7250 prior to an attempt at BLUE on the chart.

All of this is, of course, completely insane!

We’re the first to admit it as there’s something going on which software alone cannot account for. When a market makes a Higher High, it’s almost unheard of for a price to accelerate to target without deflection. Instead, a price will generally make it around half way to a primary target and then, doubt establishes itself amongst traders. A sell off to collect profit thus will generally fuel a reversal down to whatever prior level it started from. Now, smart traders (in the absence of negative news) will again buy into a market, hoping for a bounce with the next surge upward hopefully exceeded the previous half way mark.

Simple? Or just human nature?

The FTSE complicates things as we’re showing a strange tier of target levels, a collection of 100 point leaps from 7402 through 7500 all the way to 7600. At present, the important detail comes if 7402 exceeded as continued traffic to 7509 is theoretically possible. We do expect that BLUE line to have a say in matters though.

At present, we’re not inclined to take any reversal as serious unless the FTSE stumbles below the 7300 level before attempting our immediate 7386 target. This risks being a poor show, possibly the harbinger of coming weakness to 7196 and below to a bottom of 7164 points.

Finally, have a good weekend and “Hello again” to our regular readers on Reunion Island, along with new visitors from Antigua and Barbuda (you’re all lucky people!)

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:03:08PM	FTSE	7354.2	‘cess
10:05:00PM	BRENT	67.59	67.65	67.205	66.76	68.28	68.54	69.045	70.03	67.4
10:06:56PM	GOLD	1309.36	‘cess
10:09:08PM	FRANCE	5401.2	‘cess
10:11:33PM	GERMANY	11587	‘cess
10:16:49PM	US500	2855.77	Success
10:18:40PM	DOW	25974	‘cess
10:22:36PM	NASDAQ	7502.12	7431	7397	7359	7504	7510	7577.5	7831	7312	Success
10:25:13PM	JAPAN	21608	‘cess

21/03/2019 FTSE Closed at 7355 points. Change of 0.88%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,645,172,640 a change of -16.41%

FTSE for FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) The UK market continues to power itself upward, lifted by what? We bang on about how important “Higher Highs” can be, a notion amply proved by market moves since March 17th. Once a market starts growing, it becomes difficult to slow things down, despite an entire political class’ best efforts.

The immediate situation for the FTSE is slightly confusing. Generally when a “Higher High” cycle commences, the market will only grow so far before some doubt establishes, provoking a reversal to the point it all started. In the case of the FTSE, this means we should not be aghast to witness travel to around 7250 in the days ahead. Prior to this, we’d hope anything near term above 7371 should bring some oomph for an initial 7386 points. If bettered, secondary is at 7402 points and an ideal level from which relaxation can be expected. This sort of ambition comes nowhere close to bothering the BLUE downtrend, thus giving the impression hope remains for the longer term.

Unfortunately, if taking our rhetoric as gospel, the index could continue to 7454 should 7402 be exceeded, so that’s a reasonable level to try a stop loss at. Our suspicion, should Brexit be delayed, is of reversal to 7250 prior to an attempt at BLUE on the chart.

All of this is, of course, completely insane!

We’re the first to admit it as there’s something going on which software alone cannot account for. When a market makes a Higher High, it’s almost unheard of for a price to accelerate to target without deflection. Instead, a price will generally make it around half way to a primary target and then, doubt establishes itself amongst traders. A sell off to collect profit thus will generally fuel a reversal down to whatever prior level it started from. Now, smart traders (in the absence of negative news) will again buy into a market, hoping for a bounce with the next surge upward hopefully exceeded the previous half way mark.

Simple? Or just human nature?

The FTSE complicates things as we’re showing a strange tier of target levels, a collection of 100 point leaps from 7402 through 7500 all the way to 7600. At present, the important detail comes if 7402 exceeded as continued traffic to 7509 is theoretically possible. We do expect that BLUE line to have a say in matters though.

At present, we’re not inclined to take any reversal as serious unless the FTSE stumbles below the 7300 level before attempting our immediate 7386 target. This risks being a poor show, possibly the harbinger of coming weakness to 7196 and below to a bottom of 7164 points.

Finally, have a good weekend and “Hello again” to our regular readers on Reunion Island, along with new visitors from Antigua and Barbuda (you’re all lucky people!)

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:03:08PM	FTSE	7354.2	‘cess
10:05:00PM	BRENT	67.59	67.65	67.205	66.76	68.28	68.54	69.045	70.03	67.4
10:06:56PM	GOLD	1309.36	‘cess
10:09:08PM	FRANCE	5401.2	‘cess
10:11:33PM	GERMANY	11587	‘cess
10:16:49PM	US500	2855.77	Success
10:18:40PM	DOW	25974	‘cess
10:22:36PM	NASDAQ	7502.12	7431	7397	7359	7504	7510	7577.5	7831	7312	Success
10:25:13PM	JAPAN	21608	‘cess

21/03/2019 FTSE Closed at 7355 points. Change of 0.88%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,645,172,640 a change of -16.41%

Lloyds Group #DOW #DAX In the UK at present, two things appear certain. Neither Lloyds share price, nor our competent parliament, can make a decision about the future. While our national leaders embrace of indecision is well documented, Lloyds Bank is less so.

Last time we reviewed this, we gave a suspiciously precise number which the share required actually close above to make recovery to 67.6p confident. At present, our ridiculous number is at roughly 65.332p and the share price is making efforts to avoid closing a session above this point. As the inset on the chart shows, some quite silly acrobatics are taking place to avoid closure above BLUE. If nothing else, it tends confirm we’ve been watching the correct trend and therefore, closure beyond such a level should prove capable of some reliable shuffles upward.

The ruling scenario suggests closure beyond 65.33 shall make growth to an initial 70.6p fairly confident. Secondary, if bettered, is a longer term (or next day) 77.7p. We quite like the visuals surrounding the 77p level, due to some prior history around this point.

For now, we have our doubts, suspecting Lloyds shall once again be shoved back in its box. On the chart, we’ve painted the present Brexit date (next week) and in Gold, the next proposed Brexit date at the end of June. This creates a scenario where Lloyds risks proving trapped for a while longer with the June Brexit share price date sitting at 63.8p as a maximum. If we’d to guess, it seems possible for Lloyds to oscillate between the 57 and 64 level until June, when doubtless everything shall again be in a state of flux.

Sorry if this sounds confusing but we’re confounded with overall market behaviour.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:18:11PM	BRENT	68.17	‘cess
10:20:41PM	GOLD	1313.9	‘cess
10:24:17PM	FTSE	7303.21
10:26:43PM	FRANCE	5387.5	‘cess
10:33:53PM	GERMANY	11594	11568	11526.5	11427	11669	11723	11743.75	11769	11596	‘cess
10:35:49PM	US500	2820.47
10:37:45PM	DOW	25703	25657	25635	25475	25812	25933	25997.5	26111	25750	Success
10:40:40PM	NASDAQ	7378
10:43:42PM	JAPAN	21435

20/03/2019 FTSE Closed at 7291 points. Change of -0.45%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,753,660,859 a change of 29.16%

Micron Tech. #Nasdaq #CAC40 We enjoy glancing at oddballs, if only to prove we pay attention to readers emails. To be honest though, what prompted interest was simultaneously seeing the company name on a memory chip which was laying around on my desk, awaiting its chance to breathe new life into a PC.

It will surprise readers we’re not early adopters of technology, quite the converse. An in-house mantra of “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” had ensured all our systems were 32bit, operating with 4gb ram***, but running Windows 10. The purchase of a new laptop exhibited how Windows 10 could run if on a 64bit system with 16gb of ram, along with a solid state hard drive. In the period since, our desktop PC’s operating systems have changed to 64bit, their memory substantially upgraded, and we’ve got super fast hard disks.

Unfortunately, a change to work practices was entailed. It used to be standard to turn on the PC, then go make coffee. By the time a perfect Latte was ready, the computer would generally be awake, ready for the day ahead. Now, each upgraded PC takes around 15 seconds to boot. A residual feeling of lazy guilt pervades, arriving at a machine which is now patiently waiting, the screensaver displaying pictures of cats, dogs, and the occasional snow covered mountain (better known as the view from the office!).

As for Micron Technology, their share price is showing some potentials. At time of writing, it’s trading around 40.37 and need only exceed 42.32 to better BLUE on the chart, the downtrend from May of last year. An event such as this calculates with the potential of continued growth to an initial 46.33 and better still, if exceeded it allows 52.23 to make a guest appearance as a potential high.

Visually, the secondary ambition is interesting, matching a high from last year. It looks very possible some sort of glass ceiling awaits, should our calculation of 52.23 be met. In addition, it would make a longer term 63.8 a viable target, meeting the shares all time high from last year!

For now, it appears worth watching in the days ahead. The price currently requires trade below 33.25 to cause a loss of interest in its longer term potentials.

*** 32bit operating systems can only access a maximum of 4gb memory, regardless of how much is fitted to the machine.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:11:25PM	BRENT	67.59	‘cess
10:13:23PM	GOLD	1306.31	‘cess
10:15:11PM	FTSE	7297.87	‘cess
10:17:20PM	FRANCE	5409.2	5401	5394.5	5378	5433	5444	5479	5612	5340	‘cess
10:20:07PM	GERMANY	11746	Success
10:22:32PM	US500	2830.57	‘cess
10:26:33PM	DOW	25866	‘cess
10:28:21PM	NASDAQ	7343.49	7321	7298.5	7267	7369	7393	7410	7477	7321
10:31:21PM	JAPAN	21560

19/03/2019 FTSE Closed at 7324 points. Change of 0.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,228,812,920 a change of 5.73%

Royal Bank of Scotland #Gold #DAX A truism about the climate here in Scotland is “if you don’t like the weather, wait a minute!” As our RBS report shows from just a month ago (link here), it appears something similar may be said about the banks share price… “If you don’t like it, just wait a while!” Continue reading “Trends and Targets for 19/03/2019”

Barclays #Brent #SP500 Before examining Barclays, the weekend brought a reminder of something particularly vile about @FIAFormulaE. Listening to it is like trying to enjoy the noise of a dentists drill! Certainly, good racing but the audio stinks. Perhaps more enjoyable was the weekends F1 race, smug commentators agreed it would be a race between just 3 drivers. Continue reading “Trends and Targets for 18/03/2019”