Trends And Targets

For some reason, Versarien always seems lend itself to a “what happened next” report, literally with each scenario we publish. Our last review on 2nd April (link here) illustrates a slightly worrying situation. Visually the rise came extremely close to our 145 target but importantly, it neither hit nor exceeded our ambition.

Common sense alone suggests some patience, after all the share has only made one attempt at the target level. Generally, a price will exhibit a fascination with such a target level for quite a few sessions, essentially flirting with the target price. Our worry comes from the fact 145p remained unsullied at the first surge upward, despite the share price being also manipulated (gapped) upward at the open. In addition, we had two quite distinct formula pointing to 145p as a pretty major point of interest. The fact the price (so far)  has avoiding this ambition perhaps implies weakness is present.

As a result, we’re inclined to look at reversal triggers before exploring future rise potentials.

The immediate threat is of weakness continuing below 130p bringing reversal down to an initial 122p.  In the grand scheme of things, this does not present a particularly nasty threat but our secondary, if such a level breaks, is down at 103p and risks reversal below the immediate downtrend. This tends to be a dangerous movement from a big picture perspective. In reality, we’d hope for a genuine bounce if 122p makes a guest appearance.

Due to our perception of the share as showing weakness, we now demand it better 149p before taking further rises seriously. A move such as this calculates with an initial potential of 165p. If exceeded, our secondary calculates as a less believable 198p – suspicious only because it exceeds the high of 2018, in doing so requiring an entirely new game plan for the longer term.

For now, we shall not be aghast to witness the price at 122p, prior to another chapter unfolding for Versarien.

FUTURES

18/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7459 points. Change of -0.16%.

Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,520,206,795 a change of -18.65%

As the market is closed on Friday, due to everyone eating chocolate, we’ve opted to end the trading week with our usual look at FTSE near term potentials. April has proven less than impressive, doubtless due to politicians unable to roll away the stone blocking a sane conclusion to the reality of Brexit.

The immediate situation for the FTSE appears quite straightforward. Moves now exceeding 7480 should bring continued recovery to an initial 7511 points.  If exceeded, our secondary calculation is at 7561, along with some stumbles. Tightest stop looks like 7444 points.

If trouble is coming – which actually looks possible for Thursday – reversal below 7444 points looks capable of travel down to an initial 7399 points. If broken, our secondary calculation is at 7352 points.

It’s fairly important to remember the uptrend for 2019 is presently lurking at 7328 points with weakness below such a level looking capable of a sharp 80 point fall to around 7245 points!

For light relief, or more probably because it’s important, we’ve given a couple of insets on the chart. These insets show what’s happened since it became clear Brexit was being delayed. The UK market has reacted very, very, carefully, with a lack of flamboyance seen on other markets in Europe and the USA. The respect being paid to the ruling BLUE downtrend is fairly important as it implies weakness now below BLUE is liable to provoke sharp reversals. Essentially, this is our doctrine of “If it ain’t goin’ up, it’s goin’ down” in action. Despite our speculative trading scenario above, the BLUE line advocates extreme caution if the index slides below – presently 7417 points.

Have a good Easter. We’re trying to figure out how to amuse grandchildren with a new tradition; setting fire to Easter eggs and rolling them down a hill. What could go wrong?

17/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7471 points. Change of 0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,556,612,805 a change of 1.69%

GERMANY DAX #CAC40 #Nasdaq Curiously, reports Germany is on the edge of recession appear to be ignored by the marketplace. In fact, the German index is within sneezing distance of a trigger level which we expect shall provoke a new all time high for the index. Perhaps Germany is suspected of surviving a post-Brexit world…

A ready joke springs to mind. If the renovation company do have insurance, will any unexplained claim be rejected as “An Act of God”? And wasn’t the organist quick off the mark, realising his piano was now a pile of soggy embers and scarpers to Germany, just to get a shot of someone else’ keyboard! Anyone who’s listened to BBC Radio2 “Organist Entertains” will understand a justified loathing for such an instrument.

However, the German market is becoming interesting, visually appearing relieved Brexit has been delayed. The situation now is of movement above 12,120 indicating coming recovery to an initial 12,293 points. If bettered, secondary is a longer term 12,486 points. At this point, we’ll probably commence drooling slightly  as the index becomes capable of a third target level.

It’s the third target of 12,677 which is noteworthy, taking the market within sight of an important trigger level. In the event the DAX closes a session above 12,775 points, from our perspective it triggers a longer term rising cycle to 14,153 points. This is perhaps something worthy of consideration for the future.

For the index to get into trouble, it needs below 11,574 points. Weakness such as this will suggest some travel down to an initial 10,929 points with secondary, if broken, at 10,506 points.

16/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7469 points. Change of 0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,464,264,933 a change of 18.98%

FRANCE CAC40 #Gold #DAX France’s bold effort to change the Paris skyline will probably dominate the news cycle, so it makes sense to examine the countries index. In common with Germany (and a lesser degree the UK) the market started April with considerable optimism, now to be buoyed with untold funds rebuilding the landmark.

As for the CAC, it’s certainly showing some signs of becoming quite interesting. We’ve designated 5555 as a trigger level if it intends provide convincing recovery. Movement above this point looks capable of achieving a fairly tame initial 5588 points, along with some hesitation. Our secondary calculation is a bit more encouraging, calculating at 5731 points.

This, visually, provokes a higher high, thus allowing us to calculate a third (and major) target level if the secondary is bettered, Essentially, it appears 5882 points shall provide a level where some serious hesitation can be anticipated.

If trouble is coming, the index requires below 5411 presently, this allowing reversal to an initial 5353 points. If broken, secondary is at 5233, a point where the visuals indicate a bounce can be expected.

As for the Notre-Dame, while sharing no religious empathy with a building, personal fond memories of hours wasted in the early 1980’s, lazing in the square with students and watching the world go by – obviously prior to it becoming the unsavoury haunt of recent years. The fire is akin to watching memories burn, almost evoking the empty loss of that day on Sept 11th.

15/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7436 points. Change of -0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,592,420,732 a change of -23.84%

The Dow Jones #Brent #SP500 Grandchildren visiting for the Easter holidays required a good practical joke was invented. We’re based in countryside, it seemed reasonable to let the city kids know they’d be joining local children of the same age, watching lambs and cleaning up lamb poo, keeping the fields tidy.

Both girls rebelled at the prospect until informed they’d be paid by the bucketful. Monday is going to prove interesting, thanks to a local farmer with a sense of humour.

This, rather neatly, brings us to the DOW JONES and the potential of selling readers a bucket of poo. There’s now a real “problem” with this index as the unlikely number of 30,706 popped up as a viable long term potential. Additionally, there’s an initial target with some hesitation expected at 28,461 points.

We’re somewhat sceptical as the calculations are giving a series of new all time highs for the USA index. The final trigger shall come when (or if) the index trades above 26,753 points. Early warning shall be closure above 26,430 points. The day high on Friday was at 26,436 points and it closed at 26,412 points.

The DOW requires trade BELOW 25,780 to trash these big picture upward potentials.

We’d some pause for thought when considering the USA. The Nasdaq is sitting in a region with the potential of a further 1,000 point growth whereas the S&P only presently looks capable of stumbling in just an additional 50 points at 2,957 points.

Aside from the FTSE, similar positive index movements appear to be taking place across Europe.

With ample excuse, the FTSE is proving shambolic but we suspect, the recent hesitation on Brexit, shall allow the UK marketplace to come close to challenging prior highs before a future excuse for reversals. This results in the potential of 7750 making itself known at some point. The UK needs drop below 7250 to spoil such a potential.

12/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7437 points. Change of 0.27%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,029,665,005 a change of 2.58%

At 3am and a quirky shot of the moon, the clouds, a couple of @Western_Ferries dozing on the Holy Loch, Argyll. Oh, and a “ghost” in the wheelhouse too? @Argyll_IslesApp

FTSE for FRIDAY #DAX #NASDAQ Sometimes a headline successfully says nothing and Reuters managed in beautifully on Thursday. Our own version would read; “we don’t have a clue, neither does the stock market, neither do politicians”. But we do have trigger levels!

The other day, we warned to pay attention to our initial targets but we’d a lack of confidence in our secondary upper target levels. It’s almost like the market itself was listening as now, the UK index requires better 7444 points before we dare take any rise seriously. A miracle such as this should signal coming growth to an unimpressive 7458 points. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 7470 points.

If triggered, the tightest stop appears to be at 7406 points.

The alternate comes with weakness now below 7383 as reversal on the FTSE down to 7358, followed by some sort of bounce makes sense. If broken, things are liable to get a little exciting  as our secondary calculates at 7260 points!

We’ve very little to go on, given movements this week, which give any confidence for coming market direction. If we’d to guess, the visuals tell us not to be surprised at an attempt to match prior highs, making a near term ambition of 7470 fairly sane.

Have a good weekend. It is a F1 one, hopefully as good as the previous two.

11/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7417 points. Change of -0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,877,766,221 a change of 2.92%