Trends And Targets

#FTSE #DOW Usually, we’d be doing mental handstands, the period between Xmas and the Easter market break usually dragging on for years. This time, we were taken completely unawares by Easter, utterly surprised at the market closing on Friday and Monday. Where did that come from? Hopefully, we’re not the only folk aghast at the sudden appearance of a ‘holiday’. For us, the penny finally dropped once the US closed on Thursday.

Of course, we can’t actually do anything for the ‘holiday’. The demon grand-daughters cannot visit but equally, we can’t pack the dogs into the car and grab a ferry to an island with a decent beach and BBQ potentials. Absolutely nothing shall differentiate this weekend from every other recently except, perhaps, the weather.

 

On the other hand, the FTSE managed to close for the long weekend in a region which apparently permits some optimism. You’re going to need sit down for the next bit.

 

Our software claims movement now above 5,845 allows market travel to an initial 6,266 points. If exceeded, the secondary calculation is now at 6,499 points and beyond. Sharp-eyed readers will notice we’ve credited this potential entirely to ‘our software’, thanks to a decision to employ social distancing from the computer.

It will be worth remembering, come the market re-opening on Tuesday, all the bean counters who count death shall return to work. There’s the risk the media will joyfully find some truly dreadful numbers to gloat over, somehow managing to consign the fact it’s 4 days of misery into the small print.

 

For now, have a safe weekend. And enjoy the chocolate.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:16:01PM	BRENT	32.77	32.1	30.325		34.5	36.88	37.4375		33.4	Success
10:22:26PM	GOLD	1685.88	1670	1664.5		1685	1690	1698.5		1673	Success
10:25:50PM	FTSE	5882	5784	5756.5		5866	5893	5940		5797	Success
10:37:47PM	FRANCE	4533.7	4403	4360		4474	4561	4581		4463	‘cess
10:39:52PM	GERMANY	10707	10489	10442		10588	10712	10778		10532	‘cess
10:41:34PM	US500	2793	2705	2652.5		2777	2806	2823.5		2758	Success
11:04:04PM	DOW	23776	23620	23496		23832	24015	24216		23678	Success
11:10:27PM	NASDAQ	8247	8112	8073		8217	8300	8326		8205	‘cess
11:12:09PM	JAPAN	19467	19126	18997		19380	19615	19669.5		19336	Success

9/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5842 points. Change of 2.91%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,054,916,655 a change of 16.86%

8/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5677 points. Change of -0.47%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,036,851,647 a change of -23.98%

7/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5704 points. Change of 2.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,941,411,250 a change of 28.33%

6/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5582 points. Change of 3.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,188,185,847 a change of 7.79%

3/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5415 points. Change of -1.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,740,716,351 a change of -13.64%

2/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5480 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,647,447,638 a change of -4.67%

1/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5454 points. Change of -3.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,973,403,008 a change of -12.8%

 

#Germany #SP500 First they stole the sky, then they stole society! Those who remember the eerie pause in air travel, following 911, will recall how spooky it was. Skies rarely absent an aircraft, were now devoid of traffic. Now, so are the roads and the sky. Our ‘bit’ in Argyll, Scotland, looks across a 3-mile wide sea loch to a main road, darkness usually punctuated by fast-moving motorcycles, trucks with rows of amber lights, thumping Harley’s and their mid-life crisis riders, the odd supercar whine, occasional police cars trying to calm things down. And of course, the blue lights of an ambulance attending a mess somewhere.

This evening, neither the distant road nor the sky above has anything moving. The new silence asked the question, where have all the people gone?

 

It’s unlikely G4S have locked them up, if we judge by the share price…

 

The recent plunge to 70p was distinctly worrying, this taking the price below a very critical level for the longer term. Normally we would have hoped 96p would provide a floor level but this theoretical trigger level was broken on the initial plunge. Therefore, despite a bit of a bounce, we’re concerned for the future and can present some “what if it all goes wrong” numbers.

Now below 70p suggests the potential of further travel down to 43p next, a point where a real bounce can be hoped for. But should 43p break, ultimate bottom works out at 6p.

 

If a turnaround in the share price is hoped for, we initially need to see it trade above 102p. Such an event allows a trigger to an initial 125p. If exceeded, our secondary calculation works out at 150p.

Who knows, perhaps the reports of police issuing “on the spot” fines to people caught with a bottle of wine among their grocery shopping, the crime apparently being of non-essential shopping. To be honest, we suspect this story comes from the Facebook School of news. Can you imagine politicians being told not to drink?

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:56:11PM	BRENT	34.21
10:00:37PM	GOLD	1646.04
10:02:42PM	FTSE	5710.8
10:04:36PM	FRANCE	4449
10:06:41PM	GERMANY	10405.38	10140	10038.5	9850	10340	10420	10481.5	10868	10207
10:08:49PM	US500	2748.42	2635	2611.5	2562	2688	2751	2761	2779	2661
10:10:52PM	DOW	23423
10:12:50PM	NASDAQ	8212.15
10:15:49PM	JAPAN	19145

8/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5677 points. Change of -0.47%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,036,851,647 a change of -23.98%

7/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5704 points. Change of 2.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,941,411,250 a change of 28.33%

6/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5582 points. Change of 3.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,188,185,847 a change of 7.79%

3/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5415 points. Change of -1.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,740,716,351 a change of -13.64%

2/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5480 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,647,447,638 a change of -4.67%

1/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5454 points. Change of -3.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,973,403,008 a change of -12.8%

31/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5671 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,996,950,957 a change of 37.36%

 

#France #WallSt Two recent stories standout as frightening in the days of Covid-19. Firstly, news the Scottish Govt intended to ban the sale of alcohol during the crisis (a joke thankfully). Secondly, local council health fascists attempting to define Chocolate Eggs as ‘non-essential’ proved not to be a joke. Thankfully supermarkets quickly opted not to restrict the sale of Easter eggs, doubtless hoping for a buying frenzy. Either story risked igniting public unrest!

Of course, the price of chocolate eggs always verges on theft, especially if you spoil the moment by comparing the actual weight of an Easter egg with a normal bar of chocolate. Very quickly, you start to appreciate there is a bigger area of corporate theft than the price of Epson printer inks! None of this has anything to do with Qinetiq’s share price, other than a reminder the Coronavirus event casts its shadow everywhere. We even had ‘Queenie’ channeling her inner Vera Lynn with her wartime speech, reminding us ‘We’ll Meet Again’. The mention of war did remind us to review Qinetiq, given the companies focus.

 

At present, the price is trading at 321p and needs below 232p to suggest someone’s noticed you can’t shoot Superflu germs down with a missile. Such a triggering movement risks reversal to an initial 201p, along with a doubtless fake rebound. But should 201p break, the price could easily nosedive down to 136p as a bottom, hopefully. There is a threat below 136p and it’s visually quite absurd.

Apparently, should 136p, our ultimate bottom calculation works out at just 9p! Aside from some exquisite calculations, nothing visually justifies such a result. Hopefully, the low of 2010 shall provide (if any of this scenario triggers) ample excuse for a rebound, somewhere around the 95p level.

 

This analysis remains part of our “what if it all goes wrong” series. It’s perhaps worth pointing out Qinetiq only need trade above 352p to give some hope for the immediate future. Such a triggering level allows recovery to an initial 393p. If bettered, secondary calculates at a far less likely (in todays environment) of 441p, a new all-time high. Maybe they SHALL design a missile which can shoot down a virus…

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:26:20PM	BRENT	33.17									Shambles
10:28:03PM	GOLD	1650.29
10:33:26PM	FTSE	5614.64									Success
10:36:09PM	FRANCE	4367	4363	4299	4222	4423	4528	4581	4639	4425	Success
10:39:28PM	GERMANY	10186									Success
10:59:23PM	US500	2648									Success
11:05:18PM	DOW	22605	22402	21929	21363	22816	23627	23798	23926	23200	Success
11:08:55PM	NASDAQ	8025									Success
11:11:13PM	JAPAN	18981									Success

 

7/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5704 points. Change of 2.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,941,411,250 a change of 28.33%

6/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5582 points. Change of 3.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,188,185,847 a change of 7.79%

3/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5415 points. Change of -1.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,740,716,351 a change of -13.64%

2/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5480 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,647,447,638 a change of -4.67%

1/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5454 points. Change of -3.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,973,403,008 a change of -12.8%

31/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5671 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,996,950,957 a change of 37.36%

30/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of 4.59%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,821,744,739 a change of -29.22%

 

#Gold #SP500 In our glance at “what if it all goes wrong” share prices, the style of Covid-19 Mortality presentation reminds of the awful football results program on Saturday afternoons in the 1970s. In a house awaiting Dr Who on a Saturday evening, the dirge of dreary football results was detested. How could the BBC even think people were interested in football! For those who ignore history, in the 1970s there were mostly 3 TV channels showing garbage, mostly. Aside from the number of channels, the output remains the same, mostly.

 

It was something of a surprise to discover Manchester United are listed on the New York Stock Exchange, their share price behaving with greater probity than witnessed a few years ago when we covered Glasgow Ranger’s listing, an offering which ended in tears and tantrums. The debate continues, are the current Rangers Football Club an entirely new business or one justified in displaying trophy’s won by the original team?

An article on players’ salaries informed us, alongside an obvious risk of Sky TV wanting their money back for games unplayed, some trouble is queuing up to give football clubs a bit of a kicking.

 

For Manchester United, we’ve allocated a trigger level at 11.4 dollars, the scenario suggesting weakness below such a level allows a shot in the direction of 9.2 dollars. If broken, our secondary calculation (and the point at which we’d REALLY hope for a bounce) works out at 5.2 dollars.

There’s a very big problem if any initial surge breaks below 5.2 as we cannot comfortably calculate an ultimate bottom. Perhaps 0.4 will suffice, perhaps not. Regardless, it looks absolutely absurd. Equally difficult for the naked eye to digest (?) is the downtrend since 2018 as it suggests Manchester’s share price needs exceed 19.1 dollars presently to suggest it’s climbing out of trouble. At present, the price is showing an unhealthy fascination for the uptrend (Red) since 2012, the price oscillating above and below this historical remnant. This sort of holding pattern, following a previous break of a trend, never fills us with confidence.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:14:14PM	BRENT	33.78
10:16:16PM	GOLD	1662.52	1630	1618.5	1602	1644	1669	1683.75	1717	1630	Success
10:19:19PM	FTSE	5634.84									Success
10:28:57PM	FRANCE	4396.5									‘cess
10:31:20PM	GERMANY	10218									Success
10:34:29PM	US500	2657	2572	2552.5	2511	2600	2661	2674.5	2754	2596	Success
10:37:01PM	DOW	22633									Success
10:38:57PM	NASDAQ	8051.75									Success
10:40:53PM	JAPAN	18872									Success

 

6/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5582 points. Change of 3.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,188,185,847 a change of 7.79%

3/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5415 points. Change of -1.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,740,716,351 a change of -13.64%

2/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5480 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,647,447,638 a change of -4.67%

1/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5454 points. Change of -3.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,973,403,008 a change of -12.8%

31/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5671 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,996,950,957 a change of 37.36%

30/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of 4.59%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,821,744,739 a change of -29.22%

27/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5510 points. Change of -5.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,225,273,197 a change of 4.62%

 

#Brent #DAX This week, we’re going to focus on a few “what if it all goes wrong” shares. A plea, tweeted by a BBC guy, begged people to purchase a newspaper, due to their sales and advertising revenue crashing. Certainly, a feeling of guilt pervaded when judging going out to buy our weekly local newspaper did not constitute an essential journey. But as for buying national newspapers, that habit died years ago.

Reach PLC own rather a few local newspapers, along with a few national titles which, personally, had never been on a shopping list – aside as possible replacements should any toilet paper shortage continue! And worse, their share price is on the edge of some quite troubling movement.

 

Near term, weakness below 90p looks very capable of a journey down to an initial 84p. Despite there being slight hope for a rebound should such a level appear, some caution is warranted should 84p break. Such a scenario gives a secondary calculation down at 49p.

The 49p level almost has to create an excuse for a proper bounce except for an important detail.

An ambition such as this takes the share price below the low of 2019 and theoretically is the lowest we should calculate. Most of our sums give any ultimate bottom below 49p prefaced with impossible minus signs. Just one calculation fails to agree and it presents an “ultimate bottom” of 19p, neatly matching the share price lows of 2009 and 2012.

 

Certainly, if 19p were ever to appear, it presents a very strong “fingers crossed” entry point.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
2:57:13PM	BRENT	35.07	32.23	31.405	30.15	34.45	35.17	36.05	36.28	32.64	‘cess
2:59:26PM	GOLD	1621.14
4:29:18PM	FTSE	5389.11
4:31:00PM	FRANCE	4139.2									‘cess
4:33:01PM	GERMANY	9540.54	9438	9398.5	9323	9563	9625	9674	9754	9465
4:35:42PM	US500	2491.27
7:13:36PM	DOW	21074
7:15:56PM	NASDAQ	7541
7:19:03PM	JAPAN	17680									Success

 

3/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5415 points. Change of -1.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,740,716,351 a change of -13.64%

2/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5480 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,647,447,638 a change of -4.67%

1/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5454 points. Change of -3.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,973,403,008 a change of -12.8%

31/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5671 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,996,950,957 a change of 37.36%

30/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of 4.59%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,821,744,739 a change of -29.22%

27/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5510 points. Change of -5.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,225,273,197 a change of 4.62%

26/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5815 points. Change of 2.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,862,267,552 a change of -16.24%

#FTSE #DAX #GOLD Sorry we skipped a day. Database issues… News of US Jobless claims once again doubling to yet another all time record was greeted by Wall St reeling in shock, achieving a 2.2% gain. We’d warned about this “risk” and were amused, seeing the US close the session at 21,393 points. Our target; 21,395 points! This time round, we doubt if the employment gain shall follow through, thanks to the US’s Monthly Payroll figures being released tomorrow, the first Friday of April.

Despite the market making a considerable effort to close the session in safe territory, any travel below 21,116 points is liable to prove traumatic, giving the potential of a fall to 21,600 with secondary 20,320 points!

As for the FTSE for FRIDAY, the UK market is showing some quite strange potentials. Now above 5,553 points and further recovery toward an initial 5,604 points calculates as possible. If exceeded, our secondary works out at 5,625 points. Unfortunately, the index closed the session at 5,480 and doesn’t require much in the way of trouble to provoke some reversals.

Now below 5,450 risks proving an issue, computing at an initial 5,391 with secondary, if broken, down at 5,325 points.

 

Have a good weekend, stay well, and remember the foregoing applies to the markets, not after hours futures.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:50:12PM	BRENT	29.92	26.8	24.175		27.95	31.05	34.515		29.16	Success
10:53:22PM	GOLD	1615	1582	1567		1598	1620	1634		1584	Success
10:55:09PM	FTSE	5496	5397	5346.5		5473	5561	5587.5		5447	Success
11:03:03PM	FRANCE	4230.5	4150	4122		4213	4265	4288.5		4193
11:05:11PM	GERMANY	9602	9336	9116		9501	9657	9732		9500	‘cess
11:09:47PM	US500	2525	2436	2420		2510	2540	2553		2468	‘cess
11:12:37PM	DOW	21421	21000	20692.5		21290	21495	21672.5		21130	‘cess
11:15:58PM	NASDAQ	7650.99	7424	7366.5		7535	7673	7691.5		7577	‘cess
11:18:29PM	JAPAN	18063	17750	17696		17936	18119	18159.5		17833	Shambles

2/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5480 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,647,447,638 a change of -4.67%

1/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5454 points. Change of -3.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,973,403,008 a change of -12.8%

31/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5671 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,996,950,957 a change of 37.36%

30/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of 4.59%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,821,744,739 a change of -29.22%

27/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5510 points. Change of -5.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,225,273,197 a change of 4.62%

26/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5815 points. Change of 2.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,862,267,552 a change of -16.24%

25/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5688 points. Change of 4.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,386,988,784 a change of 9.28%

 

#CAC40 #Gold #DOW Traditionally, we would consider producing some sort of absurd analysis for 1st April in homage to April Fools Day. However, about the best we hope for is a grinning Prime Minister saying “gotcha” on the pavement outside Downing St. Somehow, this appears as unlikely as our immediate positive outlook against the Dow Jones.

Following a truly confused day, the index managed to close at 21,927 points. It “only” needs above 22,480 to be viewed as entering a cycle to an initial 23,126 points with secondary, if exceeded, calculating up at 24,725 points. These numbers are supposed to be “Big Picture” scenario but thanks to the width of many recent daily movements, it would not take much for a day to go utterly crazy.

However, we have some doubts. As the chart inset highlights, the US market opted to pay homage to the Blue downtrend, ensuring the index failed to break upward. This being the case, it appears some reversal shall be on the cards.

Weakness now below 21,850 computes with an initial drop target at 21,606 points. If broken, secondary is at 21,406 points but importantly, the index shall find itself in a zone where a sharp reversal to 20,640 becomes painfully possible.

Always remember we are looking at The Dow only and NOT after-hours futures.

 

Finally, a lot has been said about Virus Tourists, these folk turning up at remote locations with Mobile Homes and Caravans, or in the case of Prince Charles, by private jet. Here in Argyll, Scotland, a new type of tourist has appeared. A few reasonably sized boats have dropped anchor in the bay, presumably fully stocked with toilet roll and booze as the occupants have not ventured ashore. To be fair, envy is the only emotion and hopefully, the weather remains calm for the occupiers.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:22:14PM	BRENT	26.03									‘cess
10:24:13PM	GOLD	1578.88	1573	1567.5	1542	1603	1618	1633	1653	1592	Success
10:26:19PM	FTSE	5594.23									‘cess
10:28:35PM	FRANCE	4345.2	4315	4289.5	4230	4346	4433	4454	4507	4356	Success
10:50:44PM	GERMANY	9794.86									‘cess
10:53:19PM	US500	2578.47									Shambles
10:56:23PM	DOW	21868									‘cess
10:58:02PM	NASDAQ	7800.62									Success
10:59:54PM	JAPAN	18672									Sorry

31/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5671 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,996,950,957 a change of 37.36%

30/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of 4.59%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,821,744,739 a change of -29.22%

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