Trends And Targets

RBS #SP500 #NK225 In our monthly visit to “The Bank that likes to say ‘Doh!’ “, the star of the clown sector of the FTSE has performed pretty much as expected. Our prior report (link here) was notable in lacking any confidence for an immediate share price recovery and now, we require to examine what the break of our initial target risks?

With the share price breaking below 219.5p, it enhances the probability of any near term bounce being short lived. When we review the immediate downtrend, the demand is for anything above 228 apparently suggesting the speed of descent has eased, allowing recovery to an initial 235p. This, while fairly useful, unfortunately ensures the share price remains in the drop zone with 202p offering the chance of a probable “real” bottom.

Only above 238 shall we start taking any recovery seriously as this will trash the immediate drop prospects and take the share into a region where 248 presents a target.

For now, below 216 still suggests 202p as providing a “bottom” but secondary, if broken, comes along at 177p eventually.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:23:28PM	BRENT	70.09									Success
9:25:30PM	GOLD	1273.82
9:47:24PM	FTSE	7321.61									Shambles
9:49:02PM	FRANCE	5368.7
9:55:30PM	GERMANY	12149.72									Shambles
9:58:55PM	US500	2855.82	2845	2836	2824	2865	2867	2872.5	2881	2850
10:00:59PM	DOW	25776
10:09:44PM	NASDAQ	7416.22									Shambles
10:11:40PM	JAPAN	21226	21190	21156.5	21075	21313	21359	21412	21486	21242

22/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7334 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,971,356,122 a change of 24.95%

Lloyds Bank #Cac40 #Nasdaq UK Bank share prices continue to adhere to the Elephant sex joke. If you’re successful, it takes 18 months for anything to happen. If unsuccessful, get trampled to death. When we last reviewed Lloyds, we speculated it was probably about to get stuck in a trading range between 57.5 and 63p. Guess what?

In the period since our last analysis, the share broke our 63p trigger level, hit our initial 60p target (crucially breaking it on the first downward surge) and despite a low of 59.2p, Lloyds remains with the threat of a bottom around the 57.5p level. But it’s proving painfully slow but is probably presenting a safe trading target, regardless of whether opting for a Long or Short position. Regardless of choice, entering around the midway level in the 60p area, then waiting a while to take some profit, looks a viable strategy. For a Long position, a stop can be emplaced around 56p, for a Short position, a stop looks like 64p. As the chart shows, the difficult part of any trade looks like patience.

We’re actually (a bit) surprised it hasn’t hit the 57.5p level yet but for some reason, banking shares appear attuned to whatever Brexit music is playing politically. If this is indeed the case, the big picture presently suggests 41p is exerting a long term attraction eventually, doubtless requiring the correct level of political incompetence to sufficiently damage the share price. Indeed, if the political will exists to really trash Lloyds share price, “ultimate bottom” now calculates down at 26p.

If we opt to assume the worst for the near term, apparently weakness on Lloyds now below 59.2p should drive the share back to 57.5p initially. We’d hope for a rebound at such a level but we must admit, we can now calculate a secondary at 56p.

Should we attempt a positive stance, the price requires better 65.3p to confirm a rise is possible, this triggering potential movement to 68p initially with secondary, if bettered, at a game changing 77p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:50:16PM	BRENT	71.42
9:52:59PM	GOLD	1274.91
9:55:06PM	FTSE	7355.8									‘cess
9:57:33PM	FRANCE	5387	5345	5330	5306	5380	5403	5427	5459	5348
10:01:01PM	GERMANY	12160.94									Success
10:03:16PM	US500	2865.17
10:06:02PM	DOW	25881									‘cess
10:08:29PM	NASDAQ	7456.54	7387	7362.5	7325	7456	7475	7509.5	7563	7412
10:11:21PM	JAPAN	21365									‘cess

21/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7328 points. Change of 0.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,579,496,230 a change of 2.76%

Ford #Gold #SP500 It’s not often we have to warn a report may contain ‘spite’ but Ford, announcing 7,000 job cuts, reminded of another reason we utterly despise the company and their products. The problem was a car purchased for the dogs as our usually wet and muddy Golden Retrievers tend trash a vehicle interior. We bought a Ford C-Max as a worthy pooch transport.

Cumulatively, the thing managed remain roadworthy for just 2 out of 8 months, a series of electronic problems tending ensure it never could be trusted to complete a journey. Even dealerships admitted bewilderment, when C-Max electronics decide to play games. We gave up and sold the thing with Ford finally winning the accolade for a real dog of a car. It will be the only Ford ever purchased, such was the level of trouble. We wonder, in this day and age, how could a car maker fail to implement reliable electronics, given Japan have been doing it since the 1980’s? (However, it was nice seeing it report 72mpg at motorway speeds!)

Thus, our approach to the company share price is tinged with distaste but to be fair, there’s quite a lot to dislike. Despite strong recovery since the trauma of 2009, the share price faltered and is now presenting a distinctly dodgy picture. The big problem is the Red line on the chart, currently around 8.1 dollars. Weakness below this level looks capable of driving the price down to 6.29 next. While a bounce from 6.29 is possible, in the absence of a miracle we’d suspect it short lived as secondary, should 6.29 break, is down at 1 dollar. Visually this will represent a return to match the lows of the market crash!

To get out of trouble as we already suspect 6.29 shall appear, the price requires better 11.75 as this should trigger some recovery to an initial 13.25. The chart tends suggest, should such a level be attained, some hesitation can be expected as it appears a glass ceiling awaits. Only with closure above 13.25 dare we accept a secondary longer term calculation of  16.80.

For now, similar to our gladly unmissed Ford C-Max, we distrust the company share price but shall take an interest should it achieve the 6.29 level. And who knows, if the 1 dollar mark ever appears, considering buying Ford would not be out of the question!

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:49:34PM	BRENT	71.54
10:52:15PM	GOLD	1278.38	1273	1268	1263.5	1279	1279	1283	1291	1274	‘cess
10:54:52PM	FTSE	7313									‘cess
10:57:31PM	FRANCE	5358.5									Success
11:00:26PM	GERMANY	12057.18									Success
11:03:05PM	US500	2848.38	2838	2830.5	2810	2855	2872	2880	2887	2853	‘cess
11:06:17PM	DOW	25744									‘cess
11:09:13PM	NASDAQ	7400									Success
11:12:07PM	JAPAN	21176									‘cess

20/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7310 points. Change of -0.52%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,429,558,447 a change of -17.82%

Thomas Cook #Brent #DAX Headlines such as below, “what are your rights if…” are rarely encouraging when viewing the future for a company share price. Oddly, despite recent trauma, we’re not entirely convinced Thomas Cook have finished their crash landing!

The big problem we have is circled on the chart. When the share price was gapped below the uptrend since 2012, this moved the price into a region where the big picture calculated provided an “ultimate” target bottom of -18p, an obviously impossible number. We’re forced to review movements since the price was manipulated below the RED uptrend in the hope of finding a level which may prove to be bottom, a point where it will be reasonable to hope for a bounce. At present, the signals suggest continued traffic below 10p points at an initial 7p. If broken, secondary is a hopeful bottom by 4p.

It’s worth remembering that circled area on the chart.

This was a clear indication the stock market wanted TCG down in price with the suggestion the good times were now over. The price will need something approaching a miracle to return it above RED on the chart. Working on the basis a rebound can be hoped, if only due to the volume of folk thinking “TCG is cheap”, any bounce from the 4p to 7p zone proving capable of exceeding 13p should have sufficient strength to reach 17p. If bettered, secondary is at 22p and we’d need stir the tea leaves again to gauge possibilities above such a level.

For the present, Thomas Cook are showing some pretty dire potentials and the Big Picture scenario with -18p is a pretty major concern.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
6:54:27PM	BRENT	71.59	71.24	70.59	69.82	72.42	72.64	73.045	74.5	71.64
6:57:01PM	GOLD	1278.06									Success
7:07:14PM	FTSE	7340.44
7:09:07PM	FRANCE	5419.8
7:11:39PM	GERMANY	12202.6	12147	12095.5	12021	12242	12272	12292.5	12453	12180	Sorry
7:13:36PM	US500	2860.22
7:15:25PM	DOW	25776.9
7:35:48PM	NASDAQ	7499.75
7:37:19PM	JAPAN	21207									Shambles

 

17/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7348 points. Change of -0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,607,288,345 a change of 21.38%

FTSE, #SP500 #GOLD We had a stunning result against the S&P, one so impressive we didn’t notice until someone emailed. Our report in March (link) detailed an upper target of 2954 for the S&P. It hit 2954.13 on the first of May, carefully going no higher since. How could we be so accurate, 49 days before the event?

It was interesting, on the initial surge to 2884, the market actually bettered our target, reaching 2885.25 before a slight fall back. Our rule of thumb is always, if an initial target is bettered, we expect the secondary to be achieved. Recently, we modified this thinking, adding “on the first surge” as an important part of the scenario. From our perspective, beating 2884 (on the first surge) made 2954 inevitable. The situation remains, quite forcibly, of short positions being in jeopardy if 2954 bettered. The S&P shall find it difficult to restrain itself from growth.

It’s important to remember we are discussing the S&P 500 index and NOT SP500 Futures. The Futures market will generally be a few points adrift from the actual index.

The situation now suggests growth above 2954 should attempt an initial 3003 points. Secondary, if bettered, calculates at 3044 points. In fact, we shall regard the long term influence as coming from a distant looking 3278 points.

Any attempt at a slowdown requires the index to fall below 2816 points, though to be honest, we’d prefer the 2800 level be broken to convince us of trouble. In such a scenario, our initial drop target is at 2720 points with secondary, if broken, at 2645. We would expect a reasonable bounce from the 2645 level if it makes an appearance.

FTSE for FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) Maintaining the theme of success, our private report to clients at lunchtime Thursday proposed 7352 as an initial target. The day high (and closing point) was 7353.51, so we are supposed to believe the FTSE is due some further recovery.

Some slight doubts appear as generally a price will mess around for a while at an initial target, almost as it it wants to confirm this was a correct trend level. We call this “stutters” and will not be surprised if the UK market stutters a bit on Friday. However, the scenario now exists of movement beyond 7354 suggesting coming travel up to 7377 points next. Secondary, if bettered, calculates at 7409 points.

We can calculate the tightest “sane” stop at 7257 points. But realistically, below 7318 points would cause raised eyebrows, if such a movement occurred following an upward trigger.

If we review converse arguments, the index requires weaken below 7257 before we dare take any reversal seriously. Such a triggering motion allows travel down to an initial 7224 points with secondary, if broken on an initial drop, at 7181 points. If triggered, the tightest stop is at 7308 points.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:30:30PM	BRENT	72.29	71.24	70.6			72.87	73.115			‘cess
10:33:31PM	GOLD	1287.3	1285	1282			1289	1291			Success
10:35:41PM	FTSE	7352.75	7294	7273.5			7362	7373			‘cess
10:37:36PM	FRANCE	5438.5	5357	5341.5			5454	5468.5			‘cess
10:40:56PM	GERMANY	12289	12152	12094			12319	12345.75			Success
10:44:08PM	US500	2877.97	2837	2813.5			2893	2904			‘cess
10:46:56PM	DOW	25874.8	25655	25598			25961	26057			Success
10:50:47PM	NASDAQ	7591.82	7465	7433.225			7629	7681.75			Success
10:53:20PM	JAPAN	21242	20937	20836			21336	21412.75

16/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7353 points. Change of 0.78%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,443,678,084 a change of -13.14%

Stagecoach #Brent #Nasdaq An unpleasant incident forced consideration of buses. Living in the sticks in Scotland, personal transport is a must as public transport tends be sporadic. In fact, until today, I literally had never been on a bus. This state of affairs changed, following chiropody of all things!

It all started with two toenails which, for years, required treatment due to their habit of ingrowing. A doctors throwaway comment, “why not get them removed, I’ll make an appointment” was the catalyst, the deed carried out today. A completely painless operation. And something not recommended! Before the operation, the two injections on each toe proved the most painful ever experienced. And yes, this does include a lumbar puncture! But the bigger issue was one of stupidity.

“It will be 24 hours before you can legally drive again…” she said. After explaining I had driven and had no-one available to drive me home, she suggested I get a bus. While in the car park, considering ignoring the legalities of driving, I could see a distant bus threading along the main road, immediately deciding to catch it. Due to the road network, if the vehicle was heading North, it would pass my house.

Once the shock of the ticket cost passed (I’d foolishly assumed a bus was something which would never cost more than a quid for a journey) I resolved to review bus company shares as surely this level of theft must be reflected in their share prices!

Stagecoach are actually looking fairly interesting.

The most important facet of their price is at 94p. There are quite a few arguments which anticipated the price hitting such a level but instead, we suspect it is bouncing from a low of 113p. Perhaps the implication is of some real strength.

This situation now is fairly useful as movement above 141p looks capable of an initial 156p. Our secondary, if such a point is bettered, calculates at a trend testing 164p. When we view recent recovery to move the share price above the long term RED uptrend, there is a hint the market wants it up.

The alternate situation is of weakness below 113p. This allows for reversal to 94p with secondary, if broken, at a ridiculous looking 20p. Only with price closure above BLUE (166p presently) does this threat recede.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:58:16PM	BRENT	71.83	70	69.405	68.59	71.2	71.85	72.14	73.09	69.97
10:00:12PM	GOLD	1296.65
10:18:47PM	FTSE	7284.95									Success
10:21:18PM	FRANCE	5372.7									‘cess
10:23:37PM	GERMANY	12101.94									‘cess
10:26:32PM	US500	2853.22									Shambles
10:29:23PM	DOW	25667.7
10:31:47PM	NASDAQ	7515.52	7463	7448	7422	7501	7526	7534	7618	7450	Success
10:33:54PM	JAPAN	21182

 

 

15/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7296 points. Change of 0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,267,316,415 a change of 5.63%

Vodafone #CAC40 #DOW Last time we reviewed this in November last year, we’d given an upper target of 174p. The price achieved 172p before fallback, definitely ‘close enough’, but perhaps also an early sign of coming weakness. We ALWAYS demand target levels are bettered. Unfortunately for Vodafone, we also gave a flip side to the story.

By warning the price dare not fall below 144p, fate was duly tempted and toward the end of January this year the trigger level was broken. This effectively started a timer for a visit down to an initial 123p, perhaps even 109p if broken. By reaching 125p today (Tues 24 May), it has come sufficiently close to our initial drop level to force an update on the big picture potentials.

So, what awaits below 123p?

In the event 123p breaks, further weakness down to an initial 114p makes sense. If (when) broken, bottom calculates at 109p. In almost any circumstances, we’d expect a proper rebound from the 109p level. The caveat; if further reductions are driven by a ready supply of negative news, there’s a massive risk should 109p break as “ultimate bottom” computes at a visually unlikely 50p! We prefer to think of this as absurd, given it matches a price level last seen in 1996. Amazingly, this price level also marks the start of the ruling RED uptrend, a trend now broken with the share achieving lower lows.

We suspect it shall bounce just before 109p, if any real strength is to make itself known.

For the RED uptrend to confirm its validity, Vodafone requires to close a session above the trend. At present, this demands the price exceed 148p. In doing so, we’d regard the share as heading to an initial 165p. Our secondary, if the initial target level exceeded, calculates at 175p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:32:12PM	BRENT	70.48
10:34:07PM	GOLD	1297.6									‘cess
10:36:19PM	FTSE	7252.75									‘cess
10:38:19PM	FRANCE	5340	5299	5286	5262	5330	5358	5372.5	5415	5288	‘cess
10:40:10PM	GERMANY	11995.93
10:45:45PM	US500	2838.97
10:54:29PM	DOW	25590	25344	25211.5	25051	25536	25693	25763.5	25841	25490	Success
10:55:54PM	NASDAQ	7412.72									‘cess
10:57:41PM	JAPAN	21147

 

14/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7241 points. Change of 1.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,933,067,685 a change of 17.45%