Sometimes it feels the #FTSE cannot pass a cliff without throwing itself off. Whereas the #DAX appears to see a cliff and try to climb. Is it a Covid-19 thing or is it a looming UK internal problem? Repeated polls in Scotland now show a majority favouring “freedom!”, certain to provoke nerves in Britain. Who knows,
A fairly simple illustration comes if we view each index’ rate of acceleration since the March 16th Covid-19 drop. For the FTSE to equal the DAX’s pace, it would already be showing a recovery high around 6,800 points. Instead, the best we’ve seen has been a slovenly 6,500 points and worse, the UK index appears to have faltered recovery and now, to be blunt, is getting scary. Again! The DAX on the other hand achieved 12,900 points whereas had it moved at similar pace to the FTSE, the best we’d expect would be 12,000 points. The implication gives a 7.5% better pace for Germany.
Germany on the other hand, presently trading around 12,500 points, seems no more frightening than a Donald Trump drunken late night tweet. The immediate situation against the DAX suggests weakness below 12,450 risks losing a few hundred points as the index collapses to a trend testing 12,209 points. We’d certainly be concerned if the market opts to spoil the party by gapping (manipulating) the index below the immediate Red uptrend (12,200 points) anytime soon as this risks some fairly nippy treatment. Such a scenario will imply coming weakness to 11,650 with secondary, once any fake bounce completes, at a bottom (hopefully) of 10,870 points. We’ve used the word “hopefully” deliberately, thanks to weakness below this Red uptrend taking the index into a region where 9,200 calculates as an eventual drop level; but only with a bunch of other criteria satisfied.
That’s about the end of the misery department as the DAX only need better 12,850 to enter a zone which threatens further recovery to 13,300 with secondary at a fairly useful 14,000 points.
As for the FTSE for Friday, as mentioned the UK market did its usual Lemming thing on Thursday, creating the situation where weakness next below 6,040 should bring the index down to an initial 5,990 or so. Hopefully it rebounds from such a level as travel below calculates with 5,920 as the next point at which we’d hope for a rebound.
At present, we’ll not be inclined to regard a miracle recovery on the FTSE (as always, we are discussing the live market, NOT after hours futures) unless the index betters 6,090 as this looks capable of recovery to an initial 6,127 points. If exceeded, secondary calculates at a useful 6,185 points and will imply Thursdays drop should be treated as “fake” with the promise of further recovery.
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