FTSE, #SP500 #GOLD We had a stunning result against the S&P, one so impressive we didn’t notice until someone emailed. Our report in March (link) detailed an upper target of 2954 for the S&P. It hit 2954.13 on the first of May, carefully going no higher since. How could we be so accurate, 49 days before the event?
It was interesting, on the initial surge to 2884, the market actually bettered our target, reaching 2885.25 before a slight fall back. Our rule of thumb is always, if an initial target is bettered, we expect the secondary to be achieved. Recently, we modified this thinking, adding “on the first surge” as an important part of the scenario. From our perspective, beating 2884 (on the first surge) made 2954 inevitable. The situation remains, quite forcibly, of short positions being in jeopardy if 2954 bettered. The S&P shall find it difficult to restrain itself from growth.
It’s important to remember we are discussing the S&P 500 index and NOT SP500 Futures. The Futures market will generally be a few points adrift from the actual index.
The situation now suggests growth above 2954 should attempt an initial 3003 points. Secondary, if bettered, calculates at 3044 points. In fact, we shall regard the long term influence as coming from a distant looking 3278 points.
Any attempt at a slowdown requires the index to fall below 2816 points, though to be honest, we’d prefer the 2800 level be broken to convince us of trouble. In such a scenario, our initial drop target is at 2720 points with secondary, if broken, at 2645. We would expect a reasonable bounce from the 2645 level if it makes an appearance.
FTSE for FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) Maintaining the theme of success, our private report to clients at lunchtime Thursday proposed 7352 as an initial target. The day high (and closing point) was 7353.51, so we are supposed to believe the FTSE is due some further recovery.
Some slight doubts appear as generally a price will mess around for a while at an initial target, almost as it it wants to confirm this was a correct trend level. We call this “stutters” and will not be surprised if the UK market stutters a bit on Friday. However, the scenario now exists of movement beyond 7354 suggesting coming travel up to 7377 points next. Secondary, if bettered, calculates at 7409 points.
We can calculate the tightest “sane” stop at 7257 points. But realistically, below 7318 points would cause raised eyebrows, if such a movement occurred following an upward trigger.
If we review converse arguments, the index requires weaken below 7257 before we dare take any reversal seriously. Such a triggering motion allows travel down to an initial 7224 points with secondary, if broken on an initial drop, at 7181 points. If triggered, the tightest stop is at 7308 points.
|
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
|
10:30:30PM |
BRENT |
72.29 |
71.24 |
70.6 |
72.87 |
73.115 |
‘cess | ||||
|
10:33:31PM |
GOLD |
1287.3 |
1285 |
1282 |
1289 |
1291 |
Success | ||||
|
10:35:41PM |
FTSE |
7352.75 |
7294 |
7273.5 |
7362 |
7373 |
‘cess | ||||
|
10:37:36PM |
FRANCE |
5438.5 |
5357 |
5341.5 |
5454 |
5468.5 |
‘cess | ||||
|
10:40:56PM |
GERMANY |
12289 |
12152 |
12094 |
12319 |
12345.75 |
Success | ||||
|
10:44:08PM |
US500 |
2877.97 |
2837 |
2813.5 |
2893 |
2904 |
‘cess | ||||
|
10:46:56PM |
DOW |
25874.8 |
25655 |
25598 |
25961 |
26057 |
Success | ||||
|
10:50:47PM |
NASDAQ |
7591.82 |
7465 |
7433.225 |
7629 |
7681.75 |
Success | ||||
|
10:53:20PM |
JAPAN |
21242 |
20937 |
20836 |
21336 |
21412.75 |