RBS for 29/04/2019

RBS #DAX #BRENT In the month since our last report, RBS share price has opted to disappoint everyone. It achieved our drop target (link here) and opted to break below 239p on the initial surge downward. For reasons given below, from our perspective this is a really bad thing, breaking every optimistic bone in our computer.

As regular readers know, over the years we’ve habitually given Primary and Secondary targets, our thinking being if a Primary is achieved, after the market has opted to mess around for a while at such a target level, it will eventually move UP or DOWN to the Secondary target – depending on whether any triggered scenario was for a Long or Short position. Eventually a fairly important penny dropped regarding our Primary target positions. Essentially, if a price breaks the Primary on its initial surge, the Secondary becomes almost assured. Whereas, if a price opts to spend a few hours teasing a target level but not breaking it, our Secondary position is on thin ice.

Quite why it took so many years for this to become apparent escapes us. It certainly explains some of our self congratulatory “Target Met – or near enough” results, these being price movements which fail to achieve their secondary levels but come within a spreads width of target.

Therefore, despite closing Friday at 240p, just above our 239p drop target, the share price of RBS achieved a day low of 232.5 and thus, we should prepare for the worse. The immediate situation suggests ongoing weakness below 232 should bring some reversal toward an initial 219.5p, followed by some sort of bounce. It will be worth watching for 219.5 being broken as “bottom”, the level from where a real bounce can be hoped, calculates at 202.5p.

On the chart below, we’ve a notional trend line, something which dates back 11 years to 2008. We call it notional, ‘cos we’ve not been convinced it’s a trend the market is paying attention to but the opening share price movement on Friday 26th tended confirm the trend was painfully real. The nice folk who manipulate prices opted to gap RBS rather precisely down below this BLUE line, meaning RBS share price requires close above 243p to escape its doom with a bottom at 202.5p (hopefully).

Only with closure above 243p dare we take the attitude of RBS heading to an initial 268 with secondary, if bettered, a longer term 291p.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

4:34:46PM

BRENT

71.19

71

70.505

69.05

72.95

73.74

74.095

75.24

72.6

Success

4:36:47PM

GOLD

1286.25

               

‘cess

4:40:22PM

FTSE

7435

               

4:42:14PM

FRANCE

5568.7

               

4:48:04PM

GERMANY

12312

12234

12207

12168

12315

12325

12343

12379

12273

4:59:12PM

US500

2937.82

               

‘cess

5:01:09PM

DOW

26521.2

               

‘cess

5:03:03PM

NASDAQ

7823.02

               

‘cess

5:05:01PM

JAPAN

22325

               

‘cess

26/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7428 points. Change of -0.08%.

Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,300,902,502 a change of 16%

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