Trends And Targets

#Brent #DAX The price of GOLD appears on the verge of becoming properly interesting again. Of course, this has only occurred since we started to speculate whether  Bitcoin was becoming the new ‘contrary’ indicator for the markets, overall. But now, something quite useful seems to be awakening Gold from its recent slumbers.

Perhaps we’re being churlish, describing the metal stuck in a 300 dollar range since 2014 as a “slumber” but a glance at the chart below illustrates, despite it going up and down a bit, we’d need be generous to attribute any link to Gold behaviour with, for instance, Dow Jones behaviour. However, all this appears to be on the point of changing but with an important caveat. If the metal actually CLOSES a day above 1350 dollars – or trades beyond 1357 dollars – there is a very reasonable excuse to speculate on some coming reasonable growth.

Visually there’s a historical issue at the 1350 level, thanks to a glass ceiling being in place since June 2014. If we forget arithmetic and simply use common sense, once the shiny stuff is seen solidly exceeding this Glass Ceiling (or Flat Trend), a majority of traders will assume, correctly we suspect, Gold is heading skyward. Thus far, we’ve only one reservation regarding its prospects and we’ve circled it on the chart.

The price broke the BLUE downtrend at 1288 dollars. Since the point of trend break, the metal has closed a couple of sessions below the point of trend break. This sort of thing tends dampen enthusiasm for the future, along with fouling our calculations.

For now, we can calculate trades above 1357 should bring an initial 1385 within range. If such a level is bettered, our secondary calculates at 1401 dollars though, to be honest, it could easily continue acceleration toward 1537, a level where some hesitation seems essential.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
11:56:11AM	BRENT	61.56	60.3	59.475	58.56	61.67	61.95	62.19	62.82	60.95
11:58:15AM	GOLD	1342.32									Success
12:00:47PM	FTSE	7373									Shambles
12:02:55PM	FRANCE	5372.5
12:04:48PM	GERMANY	12126	12046	12014	11951	12111	12136	12148	12182	12076
12:07:48PM	US500	2890.92
12:13:04PM	DOW	26118.2
12:17:07PM	NASDAQ	7479.75
12:19:18PM	JAPAN	21040

14/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7345 points. Change of -0.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,550,869,325 a change of 12.74%

#Brent #France Despite enjoying a horrific F1 season, Ferrari share price appears to be resilient. We’d assumed, following last weekends attempt to “cheat” their way to victory, the price would take a hammering but instead, it remains on track with hope of giving further growth to new highs.

The furore over a Ferrari driver who, when pressured for the lead, drove off track, cutting a corner. Once the car was completely off track, the following Mercedes was thus in the lead until the Ferrari bloke rejoined the track and tried force him into the wall. For a few days, plenty of ex-F1 drivers were moaning Ferrari should not have suffered a penalty, that chorus of complaint abruptly stopping when technical data was published showing exactly what the Ferrari guy had done. There’s nothing quite like a bit of controversy to make a race interesting but we’d question why the Ferrari just didn’t cede the place they’d gained unfairly?

Perhaps the more interesting thing about this nonsense is final proof Ferrari performance on track has nothing to do with their share price!

The immediate situation allows for moves above 155.75 to provoke continued growth to 160 and a new all time high. Of greater interest is the secondary, should 155.75 be exceeded. We calculate Ferrari has sufficient impetus for a longer term boost to 185. For it all to go wrong, the share requires closing a session below 132 dollars. While perhaps below the immediate uptrend at 140 will serve to cancel the future, we’d really prefer the 132 level as the “safe” point for stop loss.

FTSE for FRIDAY Less controversial the Ferrari but no less exciting (okay, that’s rubbish), the UK index broke the immediate uptrend for 2019, only to recover above it a few weeks later. In fact, from a bigger picture perspective, it’s difficult not to admit we suspect the next major point of interest is around the 7,600 level. Our usual logic implies this means short positions are liable to underperform.

Near term, reversal below 7350 suggests coming travel down to 7300, a point we’d expect a rebound. In fact, we’d have considerable alarm if 7300 breaks as reversal to 7230 and below becomes very possible.

More likely, it appears moves below 7381 should power recovery to a truly useless 7392 points. What surprises, if 7392 is exceeded, is our secondary at 7471 points, along with a challenge of the downtrend since last year. Recent, often grudging, movements of the FTSE tend suggest hoping for a 100 point day should join other ambitions, such as wishing the media would focus less Brexit and political leadership campaigns. Surely there’s a cat up a tree somewhere, deserving an in-depth report.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:47:40PM	BRENT	60.98	59.41	58.665	57.48	61.03	62.22	62.4375	62.9	60.37	‘cess
9:49:13PM	GOLD	1342.08									‘cess
9:54:08PM	FTSE	7376.82
9:56:01PM	FRANCE	5371.5	5352	5335	5303	5393	5395	5412	5432	5357
9:58:10PM	GERMANY	12180									‘cess
10:00:15PM	US500	2894.42
10:02:11PM	DOW	26121.6									Shambles
10:15:23PM	NASDAQ	7508.37
10:20:14PM	JAPAN	21062									Success

13/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7368 points. Change of 0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,923,428,175 a change of -21.53%

#NK225 #NasdaqIt’s worrying, how often we find ourselves examining shares with a view to decide “is it cheap yet?” The latest candidate, Pendragon, thankfully does not require the Wheeler Dealers treatment to make our mind up. In fact, a glance at the chart since 2009 should give sufficient warning.

It’s a bit surprising seeing one of the stars of the motor trade appear on the naughty step. Given low interest rates, along with massive improvements in fuel economy, we’d assumed cars were virtually driving themselves out of the showrooms. Similarly, the plethora of new vehicles cluttering up traffic jams appears to confirm someone, somewhere, is selling a lot of cars and, presumably, making a profit from it. However, there’s nothing quite like a Profit Warning to utterly foul a share price.

As the chart illustrates pretty clearly, the uptrend since 2009 has now been broken with the price forced below. It’s pretty unlikely it has seen bottom on the first surge, instead appearing  to suggest weakness now below 16.5p will prove capable of reversal to 13.5p and hopefully, a rebound. There are some quite extreme implications should the 13.5p level break as there’s the risk of freefall down to a longer term 4.70p. Visually, along with experience, tends suggest some sort of rebound by the 13.5p level but whether it lasts will greatly depend on if 13.5p breaks.

To give the impression this has all been a dreadful mistake, the share price needs reclaim RED which indicates 22.5p presently. If we accept the market has just indicated a new trend is commencing, we’re not holding our breath for such a signal anytime soon.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:56:25PM	BRENT	59.5									Success
9:58:10PM	GOLD	1333.58									Success
10:01:25PM	FTSE	7363.98									Success
10:03:26PM	FRANCE	5367
10:05:35PM	GERMANY	12114.41									‘cess
10:07:32PM	US500	2880.52
10:09:35PM	DOW	26014.8
10:11:33PM	NASDAQ	7471.35	7456	7431.5	7377	7502	7521	7535.5	7562	7471
10:13:36PM	JAPAN	21050	21021	20934	20801	21197	21200	21276.75	21314	21030	Success

 

12/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7367 points. Change of -0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,274,158,811 a change of 15.18%

#DOW #NASDAQ Last time we reviewed Ted Baker was in December last year (link here) and the results since have proven quite spectacular. Successfully predicting a rise, while expecting a share price to fall is something fraught with danger. Somehow, Ted Baker managed fulfil all criteria, going up, meeting targets and then heading down anyway. Slightly mad!

For now, the issues are fairly straightforward. We’d projected 980 as a fairly major point of interest – in a drop cycle which was yet to happen last December – and now, the share has broken below such a point, closing at 955p on 11th June 2019. As a result, we’re pretty far from convinced Ted Baker is “cheap” and worthy of any attention. Instead, it now appears ongoing weakness below 939 looks capable of continued reversal toward 789p next. It’s absolutely crucial 789p is not breached on an initial surge downward of “real” bottom, the point at which we’d hope for a bounce with some integrity, calculates at 582p.

We cannot reliably calculate any drop target below 582p which is not prefaced with a minus sign…

Now we are reassured as to which trend TED is adhering (clue: RED) the share apparently needs better 1545 simply to regain the trend. We’ve considerable doubts this shall prove possible anytime soon as it appears the market is intend on starting a brand new trend for the share. In fact, at present it requires exceed 1122p just to give a slight hint the drop has been overcooked (which does happen). But for now, there’s a strong argument suggesting Ted Baker is hanging on “a shoogly peg”, to employ an apt Scottish term.

Should it reach 582p, we shall become very interested in what comes next.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:25:05PM	BRENT	61.76
10:26:35PM	GOLD	1327.76									‘cess
10:30:30PM	FTSE	7393.37									‘cess
10:33:23PM	FRANCE	5401									‘cess
10:35:53PM	GERMANY	12150.42									‘cess
10:41:35PM	US500	2887.07
10:43:58PM	DOW	26058.7	25990	25932	25836	26189	26258	26278	26444	26050	‘cess
10:45:38PM	NASDAQ	7514.92	7486	7448.5	7399	7544	7597	7618	7662	7526	‘cess
10:47:53PM	JAPAN	21184									‘cess

11/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7398 points. Change of 0.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,447,131,649 a change of 38.68%

10/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7375 points. Change of 0.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,927,877,834 a change of -29.61%

#Gold #SP500 In a welcome respite from Brexit nonsense, we’ve noticed Google News Business section has been dominated with a new subject. Hedge Fund guru, Neil Woodford, has a vehicle traded on the FTSE250 with the price recently getting a little bit of a hammering. It has provoked emails!

To be honest, we’d never heard of the bloke until he became famous for all the wrong reasons but, despite receiving emails regarding WPCT, we’d probably be covering it anyway. The share price is doing something almost interesting. From our perspective, the issue is fairly simple; where’s bottom going to be?

The answer, thankfully, is equally simple but what really interests us are two distinctly different calculations. Whether we employ Big Picture arguments or near term, we’re calculating a bottom price anytime soon. (Bottom, obviously not ever guaranteed, is the level at which we’d hope for a substantial rebound)

In the case of Woodford, it appears continued weakness below 58p faces reversal to an initial 55p with secondary, if broken, at 52.6p. The proximity of each number tends give hope the price to stop falling. We cannot calculate below these levels with any degree of accuracy – or hope. Working on the hope the market intends designate bottom in the 50’s, how high could it be expected to bounce? At this point, we’ve got to abandon our software to a certain extent and simply review the visuals. Any initial bounce would make sense to attempt an initial 75p, essentially making a challenge of the manipulation gap in the company share price. Our secondary, if such a level is bettered, comes along at a doubtful 86p, challenging the downtrend since 2017.

Finally, to inject common sense into the discussion, please remember we cannot calculate a target below 52.6p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:12:54PM	BRENT	62.03									‘cess
10:15:29PM	GOLD	1328.62	1324.6	1321.5	1313	1333	1331	1333	1336	1324
10:38:07PM	FTSE	7371.28									‘cess
10:39:19PM	FRANCE	5373.4
10:41:50PM	GERMANY	12102
10:44:10PM	US500	2889.27	2869	2864	2850	2893	2906	2924	2952	2868	‘cess
10:46:55PM	DOW	26085									‘cess
10:50:21PM	NASDAQ	7515.55									Success
10:52:22PM	JAPAN	21118									‘cess

10/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7375 points. Change of 0.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,927,877,834 a change of -29.61%

#Brent #DAX Sometimes this pair defies any sort of logic but, as projected last month (link here), the relationship indeed met criteria and founders from the 1.17 level down to the 1.12 level. We suspect, given the calibre of politicians involved, this was almost like predicting rain in Scotland – inevitable.

At present, the pairing needs above 1.13 just to exceed the immediate pace of descent but we shall be more interested only if it somehow exceeds 1.14 and rises to 1.1503. While fairly insignificant, things get a little more interesting if 1.153 is bettered. This will tend imply some strength is present, indicating the potential of growth toward 1.169 next. Calculating above 1.169 is a bit dodgy but the key trigger level for “proper” movement of 1.20 still appears viable.

However…

We’re occasionally mentioning “on the first surge” to highlight something useful about our target levels. For instance, the graphic above highlights that on May 31, GBPEUR achieved our 1.1285, even closing the session at exactly this level. But importantly, during the session, it broken below to 1.1268. In plain English, this created a scenario where regardless of what followed, our secondary drop target became viable.

The situation now is fairly plain as anything now below 1.12 looks very capable of travel down to an initial 1.1092 next. Secondary, if (when) broken on the first surge is at a bottom, hopefully, of 1.085. In conventional circumstances, we’d already feel comfortable assuming GBPEUR is already heading down to the 1.085 level. Below such a point will require another hard stir of the tea leaves.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
4:17:54PM	BRENT	63.03	61.47	61.045	60.3	62.85	63.28	63.54	64.23	61.96	‘cess
4:21:54PM	GOLD	1340.96									‘cess
4:26:40PM	FTSE	7349.73									‘cess
4:29:10PM	FRANCE	5362.7									Success
4:30:59PM	GERMANY	12068.31	11962	11922.5	11864	12061	12098	12160.25	12238	11962	‘cess
5:12:01PM	US500	2875									Success
5:21:37PM	DOW	26014									Success
5:49:44PM	NASDAQ	7420									Success
5:51:29PM	JAPAN	21048									Success

7/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7331 points. Change of 0.99%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,580,216,359 a change of 12.51%

#Gold  #SP500 With an interesting level of discretion, the FTSE has spent the last week scaring us silly! The problem was fairly simple. The market had broken the RED line on the chart below, moving the index into the land of pestilence, famine, dinosaurs, and rabid politicians. And then it changed…

Our thinking last week suggested a drop coming to 7106 points, something the market actually achieved on the Monday. Worse, it even broke below this level, eventually opting to rebound from 7079 points. The entire charade of reversals was played out in just 46 minutes, after the market opened for trading. In the week since, continued small daily gains now make us wonder if the FTSE just did a “gotcha” on those folk taking short positions, once they’ve assessed the competence of our countries leadership. The point at which the FTSE closed the day on Friday has tended, if we apply our usual logic, spoil any immediate drop potential.

Here’s the thing – to quote Simon Cowell. (when he struggles to find new ways to avoid saying “deluded”)

The RED line on the chart, the uptrend since the start of January, is presently at 7250 points.

Alternately, the trend from the market lows of December 2018 is presently at 7258 points.

The FTSE closed Thursday at 7259 points.

If the market were a share, we’d be inclined to regard the drop to 7079 points on Monday as “fake” and instead, opt to take a more optimistic view for immediate future.

Near term, FTSE movements above 7285 should attempt recovery to an initial 7313 points. Our secondary, if bettered, calculates at 7392 points and given the pace of market movement recently, it’s unlikely to come along at a rush. The tightest stop loss level appears to be pretty wide at 7228 points.

There are some interesting potentials if 7228 breaks at travel down to 7197 appears likely. If broken, secondary is at 7151 points.

 Finally, there is a further important facet of the recent drop to 7107. The market proved the ruling uptrend can be broken, meaning any future break below 7107 is liable to promote a swift, almost 300 point, drop to the 6800’s.

Have a good weekend; it’s the  Montreal F1 Weekend and almost time for Ferrari to ritually humiliate themselves again.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:00:21PM	BRENT	62.03	59.95	59.24			62.18	62.445
10:01:59PM	GOLD	1335.99	1326	1320.5			1340	1344
10:10:36PM	FTSE	7266	7210	7200			7285	7312
10:17:04PM	FRANCE	5281	5258	5237.5			5335	5342.5			Success
10:19:44PM	GERMANY	11971.02	11893	11850			12012	12081			Shambles
10:28:22PM	US500	2840.62	2819	2807			2845	2851.25			‘cess
10:33:04PM	DOW	25700	25498	25374.5			25805	25853			Success
10:35:12PM	NASDAQ	7264.74	7199	7159			7294	7318			‘cess
10:37:03PM	JAPAN	20843	20734	20664			20907	20946

 

6/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7259 points. Change of 0.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,959,645,738 a change of -22.72%

5/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7220 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,417,553,392 a change of 4.62%