Trends And Targets

#Gold #SP500 The very existence of these complex ‘toast & cheese’ outlets remains a constant puzzle*. So it came as no surprise to see their share price experience a bit of a calamity this year, presumably due to European foodstuffs being off the Brexit menu? Who knows but despite recovery during the session, the 7th May witnessed the market driving the pizza price down.

Domino’s share price opened at 233p, down from a closing price of 260p before the bank holiday weekend. Despite a miracle recovery during the session, we were not entirely convinced as the market had NOT spiked the price down at the open, instead opting to gap (manipulate) the share down by 27p, virtually 10% of its value. Though Domino’s eventually closed the day at 254p, down just 1.46%, we’ve a strong suspicion the market wants Domino’s price to reverse.

The immediate situation suggests traffic below 229 should lead to an initial 213p and a probably short lived bounce. If this target level is broken on the initial surge, our secondary calculates at 182p, hopefully with the chance of a longer term real bounce. Unfortunately, reversal such as this will take the price into a region where negative news could easily drive the price down to 122p.

As the chart highlights, the price has proven rather resilient in its relationship to the longer term RED uptrend. This complex series of movements now means we require the share to exceed 288p to convince it’s breaking trend and heading upward. In such an event, our initial calculation is at 311p with secondary, if bettered, a more useful 341p.

Unfortunately, for now, we suspect it’s going to head to 182p as the next major point of interest.

* As someone who’s gluten intolerant, I cannot eat pizza!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:00:15PM	BRENT	69.6
10:09:36PM	GOLD	1284.5	1279	1277	1274	1284	1285	1287.5	1291	1278
10:12:39PM	FTSE	7251.03									Success
10:17:02PM	FRANCE	5380									‘cess
10:21:23PM	GERMANY	12081.58									Success
10:23:37PM	US500	2890.97	2861	2850	2839	2890	2895	2904.5	2919	2865	‘cess
10:27:28PM	DOW	26000.9
10:30:50PM	NASDAQ	7660.62									‘cess
10:34:16PM	JAPAN	21665									Success

 

7/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7260 points. Change of -1.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,525,956,733 a change of 41.46%

We last reviewed #GBPEUR back in February, (link here) successfully calculating a target level which has now been achieved. With such levels of political uncertainty, coupled with what often appears wilful political incompetence, we quite genuinely had doubts as to anything actually happening. #BRENT

Now, with the ball kicked down the beach for a while, the calculation allowing for 1.20 next remains valid but the pairing really needs move beyond 1.1810 to give a suspicion the next leg up is beginning. Unfortunately, rather than 1.20, we suspect a future rise shall stall first around 1.1925 before heading to the 1.20 level and an almost certain glass ceiling.

Only once the relationship actually closes above 1.20 shall we dare sing the virtues of 1.240 and beyond.

If trouble is coming, the pair requires weaken below 1.15 to indicate coming travel down to 1.1285. In itself, this is not a particularly scary movement but the real danger shall appear if they close a session below 1.128. Such a scenario runs the risk of triggering reversal to 1.08 initially. This takes the pairing into a zone where 1.03, perhaps even parity, becomes very possible.

For now though, there is considerable hope we shall see moves in the future beyond 1.181, once again strengthening the pound  (to the surprise of everyone!)

FUTURES

3/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7380 points. Change of 0.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,320,179,357 a change of -4.47%

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:34:42PM	BRENT	71.38	69.95	68.78	66.75	71.65	71.63	72.055	73.19	70	Success
9:45:54PM	GOLD	1280.49									Success
9:47:28PM	FTSE	7398.86
9:49:58PM	FRANCE	5503.7
9:53:25PM	GERMANY	12328.98	12217	12167.5	12070	12257	12340	12441.75	12486	12240	‘cess
9:56:46PM	US500	2932.37									‘cess
9:59:02PM	DOW	26449.7
10:00:58PM	NASDAQ	7777
10:03:13PM	JAPAN	22089

FTSE for FRIDAY #SP500 #NK225 For the first time ever, visitor numbers from the USA exceeded visitors from the UK. In fact, the surge in USA visitors exceeded the rest of the world combined! It was quite amazing witnessing what happens, when a couple of our reports were referenced in New York. But Reunion Island visitors still feature, giving a weekly “wish I was there” boost to travel ambitions.

As for the FTSE for Friday, a glance at the bigger picture reveals something fairly alarming. During April, the UK market exceeded the downtrend for the last 12 months, flounced around but failed achieve escape velocity, and now has retreated below the BLUE trend. In addition, the FTSE has broken the immediate RED uptrend for 2019.

In plain English, we’re not optimistic as the UK index requires exceed 7433 to regain confidence!

If taking a shot in the dark SHORT position, betting on our political leaders competence, this affords a “fairly reasonable” stop loss level, given the UK closed Thursday at 7351 points.

Near term, it appears alarm bells will be justified, if the FTSE trades below 7338 points as reversal to an initial 7311 makes sense. If broken, our secondary calculates at 7240, a point at which we’d hope for a bounce. We’d be remiss if we failed to point out the FTSE is once again trading in a region where 6750 makes sense for the longer term.

It’s always difficult to be confident about Long potentials, when a market has entered a reversal phase. Often, despite triggers being met, a share will only achieve our initial “safe” target with any rise withering before the secondary target level. At present, the FTSE requires above 7395 to indicate miracle recovery to 7433 points initially (insufficient to escape the drop cycle). If bettered, secondary is at 7502 and visually quite believable.

Have a good holiday weekend.

FUTURES

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:57:51PM	BRENT	70.35									Success
10:13:38PM	GOLD	1270.8									Success
10:15:19PM	FTSE	7345.41
10:19:19PM	FRANCE	5536									‘cess
10:20:55PM	GERMANY	12328.44									‘cess
10:23:13PM	US500	2917.97	2897	2888	2876	2925	2931	2939	2953	2904	‘cess
10:25:28PM	DOW	26302									‘cess
10:27:48PM	NASDAQ	7726.82									‘cess
10:29:27PM	JAPAN	22296	22147	22077	21945	22358	22388	22464	22562	22218

2/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7351 points. Change of -0.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,569,031,363 a change of 41%

Tableau Software (NYSE:DATA) #DAX #DJI This one’s a bit of an oddball and they’re to release their results after the business close on the 2nd. The reason for its “oddball” status comes from Google website adverts. For some reason, we are bombarded with promotional material for Tableau with Google often allocating all advertising space on a webpage toward this company.

Of course, it’s doubtless caused by our “cookie cache” which reflects website preferences.

To get the good news out of the way first, it shall prove interesting if the share next trades above 126. Such a movement has surprising potentials, opening the door for a visit to 137 next. If bettered, secondary calculates as a longer term 154. In fact, it appears even 168 may be dreamt of for the future, this being a level we’d expect some major hesitation.

The reason for such vivid rise potentials occurred during March with the share price achieving a series of “higher highs”. From our perspective, the 137 level was mathematically correct and now, a revisit to such a point which proves capable of exceeding 137 should bring some sharp growth thereafter.

As often the case, there’s a fly in the burgandy.

The two chart insets highlight a particular phenomena. Despite traders clearly showing some enthusiasm during the pre-results-day session, exquisite care was used to ensure the price did not close the session above the immediate downtrend. This sort of nonsense is always a worry, carrying the implication the market knows something.

We’d certainly have some serious concerns if the price is pushed below 115 for any reason as this threatens a visit to an initial 108. If broken, secondary comes along at 104, along with a challenge of the ruling uptrend since 2017.

We would expect a bounce, should 104 be achieved.

Quite a few emails are being received, asking for updates on USA shares. We suspect the reason is due to many European movements simply not making sense due to politics.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:43:17PM	BRENT	72.05
10:45:30PM	GOLD	1276.74									‘cess
10:48:17PM	FTSE	7327.25									Success
10:49:58PM	FRANCE	5595
10:51:29PM	GERMANY	12370.49	12276	12251	12209	12353	12377	12390	12432	12293
10:54:22PM	US500	2915.17									‘cess
10:59:31PM	DOW	26375	26347	26268	26122	26466	26465	26524	26585	26347	Sorry
11:02:58PM	NASDAQ	7724.9									‘cess
11:10:36PM	JAPAN	22163									‘cess

1/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7385 points. Change of -0.44%.

Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,949,801,557 a change of -35.7%

Barclays (LSE:BARC) #FTSE #SP500 We’re tempted to tear up our rule book against the retail banks. Despite bank shares pretending to be interesting, share prices have backed themselves into a corner, resulting in a situation where either sharp reversal shall be required or, more probably, logical trends broken but prices becoming rangebound.

This was also our conclusion the other day, when reviewing Lloyds Group and there’s nothing about Barclays suggesting it shall prove different.

At present, the downtrend since June 2007, shown as BLUE on each chart, is at 168.49p. Normal rules demand a price close above this level before enthusiastically hoping for better times ahead. Barclays currently exhibits some indication for a rise as theoretically, now above 165p is supposed to bring recovery to an initial 170.75p. Movement such as this would give every hope the price shall close above the long term downtrend but the fly in the ointment – similar to Lloyds – is the presence of a “glass ceiling in waiting” around the 170p level, shown on the lower chart.

Visually, this creates a suspicion that, even with a trend break, Barclays intends oscillate between the 170p level and the 155p level until something resolves Brexit issues. Only with closure above the 170.75p level will we dare succumb to hope, giving an initial 180p ambition with secondary, if bettered, of 192p. Or more probably beyond.

Until such time the share price manages a solid movement, while it languishes below BLUE there’s the threat of weakness below 159p driving the price down to 150.5p. Extreme danger is possible with trades below the 150p level, due to “bottom” calculating at 136p.

In the event anything interesting happens, we should revisit the retails banks and refresh our Big Picture perspective, sometime in June.

FUTURES

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:59:41PM	BRENT	71.68
10:16:38PM	GOLD	1284.18
10:19:13PM	FTSE	7450.82	7391	7374.5	7346	7435	7456	7466.25	7477	7420	‘cess
10:32:16PM	FRANCE	5595
10:34:12PM	GERMANY	12370
10:43:02PM	US500	2953.12	2923	2912	2898	2944	2955	2960	2965	2933	Shambles
10:45:31PM	DOW	26646.3									‘cess
10:48:05PM	NASDAQ	7832.77									Success
10:50:12PM	JAPAN	22409									‘cess

30/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7418 points. Change of -0.3%.

Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,143,157,298 a change of 41.83%

#GOLD #Nasdaq When we last reviewed Lloyds, we admitted considerable discomfort in projecting the shares future potentials (link here). Instead, we opted for the cowards route, suggesting it was probably going to be stuck in a state of flux until a Brexit solution appeared. Guess what, this appears to be the case!

As Lloyds share price “closing price” charts show, the share managed to briefly break trend with the market opting to stuff the share below BLUE. This tends confirm our suspicion the price will doubtless start some oscillation, ideally giving a trading range which will prove useful as we await politicians doing the job they are paid to do. It often feels the TV show, “The Apprentice” could do a better job of things, giving a bunch of publicity hungry hopefuls the task of managing a settlement with Europe.

If our suspicion is correct regarding Lloyds, weakness now below 63 should prove capable of reversal to an initial 60p. If broken, secondary is now calculating at 57.5p and remains a point at which we’d hope for a bounce. Theoretically – and visually – it will make sense for a bounce to head to 64p before again experiencing some reversals. This will give a reasonable trading range until Brexit nonsense is sorted, one way or another.

To adopt a tone which approaches optimism, Lloyds share price now requires trade above 67.8p, this apparently now permitting growth to an initial 70.75 with secondary, if bettered, a longer term 74p. Visually, there is an implication any rise foolish enough to hit the 74p level will find itself restricted by a glass ceiling which has existed since 2015. Only with closure above such a point will be genuinely adopt a stance of hope for the future.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:43:37PM	BRENT	71.6
9:45:32PM	GOLD	1279.84	1277	1275.2	1270.6	1284	1286	1288.3	1291.8	1279
9:48:00PM	FTSE	7453.92
9:50:18PM	FRANCE	5587.5									‘cess
10:02:18PM	GERMANY	12334.24
10:04:07PM	US500	2941.37									‘cess
10:05:55PM	DOW	26585									‘cess
10:08:49PM	NASDAQ	7792.15	7789	7772.5	7746	7829	7852	7865.5	7908	7770	Shambles
10:10:26PM	JAPAN	22405									‘cess

29/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7440 points. Change of 0.16%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,331,228,714 a change of -31.26%

RBS #DAX #BRENT In the month since our last report, RBS share price has opted to disappoint everyone. It achieved our drop target (link here) and opted to break below 239p on the initial surge downward. For reasons given below, from our perspective this is a really bad thing, breaking every optimistic bone in our computer.

As regular readers know, over the years we’ve habitually given Primary and Secondary targets, our thinking being if a Primary is achieved, after the market has opted to mess around for a while at such a target level, it will eventually move UP or DOWN to the Secondary target – depending on whether any triggered scenario was for a Long or Short position. Eventually a fairly important penny dropped regarding our Primary target positions. Essentially, if a price breaks the Primary on its initial surge, the Secondary becomes almost assured. Whereas, if a price opts to spend a few hours teasing a target level but not breaking it, our Secondary position is on thin ice.

Quite why it took so many years for this to become apparent escapes us. It certainly explains some of our self congratulatory “Target Met – or near enough” results, these being price movements which fail to achieve their secondary levels but come within a spreads width of target.

Therefore, despite closing Friday at 240p, just above our 239p drop target, the share price of RBS achieved a day low of 232.5 and thus, we should prepare for the worse. The immediate situation suggests ongoing weakness below 232 should bring some reversal toward an initial 219.5p, followed by some sort of bounce. It will be worth watching for 219.5 being broken as “bottom”, the level from where a real bounce can be hoped, calculates at 202.5p.

On the chart below, we’ve a notional trend line, something which dates back 11 years to 2008. We call it notional, ‘cos we’ve not been convinced it’s a trend the market is paying attention to but the opening share price movement on Friday 26th tended confirm the trend was painfully real. The nice folk who manipulate prices opted to gap RBS rather precisely down below this BLUE line, meaning RBS share price requires close above 243p to escape its doom with a bottom at 202.5p (hopefully).

Only with closure above 243p dare we take the attitude of RBS heading to an initial 268 with secondary, if bettered, a longer term 291p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
4:34:46PM	BRENT	71.19	71	70.505	69.05	72.95	73.74	74.095	75.24	72.6	Success
4:36:47PM	GOLD	1286.25									‘cess
4:40:22PM	FTSE	7435
4:42:14PM	FRANCE	5568.7
4:48:04PM	GERMANY	12312	12234	12207	12168	12315	12325	12343	12379	12273
4:59:12PM	US500	2937.82									‘cess
5:01:09PM	DOW	26521.2									‘cess
5:03:03PM	NASDAQ	7823.02									‘cess
5:05:01PM	JAPAN	22325									‘cess

26/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7428 points. Change of -0.08%.

Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,300,902,502 a change of 16%