Trends And Targets

#Gold #DOW #GBPUSD Our previous report (link) proved accurate and now, we’re a little gloomy. Sterling is starting to exhibit similar life expectancy to Epstein’s prison guards. On the other hand, after Brexit, the USA are bound to find UK imports quite competitive. If only the UK still had a reasonable manufacturing industry!

The immediate problem Sterling now faces is an expectation of a “bottom” on the current cycle at 1.1677. Unfortunately, there’s a heck of an argument suggesting things could get worse, substantially worse, as the Big Picture indicates a real bottom should occur at 0.9922 eventually. In addition, there’s the issue of the RED uptrend which ridiculously dates back to 1985.

We’re perfectly aware some readers were not even born when this uptrend commenced 34 years ago but unfortunately the market appears not to care about the age of a faded RED line. The inset on the chart highlights what has happened in the last few days since the trend broke. Visually, there can be little doubt the market is perfectly aware of this line. At time of writing, it is at 1.20807 (roughly) with the currency pairing requiring to CLOSE a session above this to indicate it has all been a dreadful mistake.

Visually, this appears unlikely, thanks to the market acknowledging this historical trend. On the plus side, anyone opening a short and hoping for the best (or worst) can emplace a fairly tight stop at 1.2106, this being the highest achieved since the trend broke. In theory, moves above this level allow for 1.2327 initially with secondary, if bettered, calculating at 1.2475.

When a major trend such as this breaks, we recommend not holding your breath while awaiting recovery!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:47:56PM	BRENT	58.86									Success
9:49:50PM	GOLD	1516.64	1499	1495.5	1486	1518	1524	1528	1535	1506	Success
9:52:10PM	FTSE	7102.8									‘cess
9:54:05PM	FRANCE	5228.7									Success
9:57:05PM	GERMANY	11422									Success
10:02:55PM	US500	2835.07									Success
10:05:34PM	DOW	25422.3	25407	25319	25096	25690	25745	25846.5	25993	25600	Success
10:10:10PM	NASDAQ	7468.89									Success
10:12:23PM	JAPAN	20118									Success

 

14/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7147 points. Change of -1.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,950,937,323 a change of -4.59%

#CAC40 #Nasdaq Unlike Germany, the French index has not (yet) made a commitment for serious reversal. Don’t be lulled into a false sense of security as France rarely misses any opportunity for amateur dramatics. At present trading around 5363, it needs below 5250 to suggest trouble awaits anytime soon.

Below 5250 and we’re looking at the potential for reversal to 4990 with secondary if (when) broken at 4780 and ideally a rebound. The secondary should donk against the uptrend since 2011, this alone giving ample reason for a recoil. We do, however, have a problem with the secondary thanks to several opening second manipulation gaps. These gaps in logic mean “bottom” could actually be 4728 points and this gives a large problem, breaking the historical uptrend.

To cut a long story short, it moves the price into a region where the “real bottom” calculates down at 3855 points. Visually, this unfortunately makes sense given historical dips and thus solidifies 3855 as the point at which a real bounce should occur.

Importantly, this is presently a scenario which has not come close to triggering. As mentioned, the index requires break below 5250 to tick the first box in a path which holds quite a lot of misery. We shall be interested, if the index can somehow exceed 5406 points anytime soon. Allegedly, if the price breaks above such a level, we can calculate 5508 as our first ambition. If exceeded, secondary computes at 5630, along with almost certain hesitation.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:55:31PM	BRENT	60.8									Success
9:57:42PM	GOLD	1501.78									Success
9:59:43PM	FTSE	7290.93									‘cess
10:02:31PM	FRANCE	5378.5	5347	5331.5	5307	5385	5406	5445.5	5505	5347	Success
10:04:27PM	GERMANY	11811.45									‘cess
10:08:08PM	US500	2931.47									Shambles
10:14:56PM	DOW	26330.6									Shambles
10:41:50PM	NASDAQ	7741.12	7649	7637	7589	7744	7781	7799	7898	7590	Shambles
10:44:21PM	JAPAN	20761									‘cess

 

13/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7250 points. Change of 0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,237,208,615 a change of 31.47%

12/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7226 points. Change of -0.37%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,744,103,828 a change of -22.18%

#Gold #SP500 Every now and then, stories in the media rumble about Germany and her apparently failing economy. Sometimes the level of hysteria is so absurd, Poland must be carefully watching her borders… . Our April analysis successfully gave upward targets for the DAX. For now, there seems there is a viable threat to exports if the UK Brexit thing goes ahead without trade agreements in place and the chart for The Dax is certainly not terribly encouraging.

To cut to the good stuff, weakness now below 11,550 looks capable of reversal to an initial unspectacular 11,250 points. If (or rather when) broken, secondary calculates down at 10,775 points, along with a challenge of the market uptrend since 2011. Only a break of this uptrend would justify some real hysterics as the index would shuffle into a zone where 7,100 presents a fairly reasonable longer term bottom.

We’ll admit, currently, 7,100 does not appear visually likely. Instead, we suspect 10,775 shall provide some sort of bounce in the months ahead. To get out of this mess, the index needs better Blue on the chart, 12,650 at time of writing.

If we look for early warning signals which will suggest a miracle, Germany requires better 12,160 as this will suggest coming recovery to 12,400 points. Better still, movement above this level calculates with 12,950 along with the promise of further strong recovery.

For now, it’s regarded as heading to 10,775 eventually!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:14:40PM	BRENT	58.3
10:31:12PM	GOLD	1511.84	1499	1492	1483	1512	1515	1520.5	1532	1499	Success
10:33:04PM	FTSE	7213.27									‘cess
10:35:09PM	FRANCE	5294.7									‘cess
10:38:36PM	GERMANY	11638									Success
10:43:24PM	US500	2882.97	2872	2851.5	2821	2909	2909	2920	2936	2889	Success
10:46:39PM	DOW	25899									Success
10:52:05PM	NASDAQ	7565.02
10:54:30PM	JAPAN	20291									‘cess

12/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7226 points. Change of -0.37%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,744,103,828 a change of -22.18%

#DAX #BRENT As the worlds leading country for jail population, you’d think the USA would be good at prisons. Events this weekend tend suggest this isn’t the case and all their practice has counted for nothing. Losing the countries highest profile guest of their penal system must be a major oops. Is the DOW as safe?

We’ve a reason for questioning the DOW as when we last reviewed it at Easter, a good argument existed suggesting the index should climb above 28,000 points. Alas, the market managed the mid 27 thousands, then fell back. It was interesting to note the index trashed this years immediate uptrend before enacting some surprise recovery. Oddly, when this sort of thing happens with European markets, we always fear the worst as any future break below a trend is both expected and will doubtless be vile. But North America is different as, when a price breaks below a trend, then recovers above, the market will invariably climb to safety again.

Often, we feel this is the difference in national psyche – across the pond hoping for the best but on this side, we expect the worst.

If the USA continues “hoping for the best”, it appears movements now exceeding 26,415 calculate with the ambition of an initial 26,637 points. If exceeded, it will be sane to hope for continued recovery toward 27,272. The visuals quite strongly suggest some hesitation if such a level makes an appearance.

By taking the European standpoint, in the scenario of the DOW falling below Red – presently around 26,000 points, reversal risks being quite share down to 25,289 points initially. If broken, secondary is a longer term 24,592 points.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
4:53:40PM	BRENT	58.18	59.23	51.205	43.18	62.97	59.97	60.74	62.41	56.7	‘cess
4:55:17PM	GOLD	1497.6
5:14:31PM	FTSE	7300.45
5:17:44PM	FRANCE	5345.2
5:23:49PM	GERMANY	11762	11669	11646	11575	11755	11770	11797	11839	11711	‘cess
5:29:10PM	US500	2924.42
5:32:25PM	DOW	26323									Shambles
5:34:47PM	NASDAQ	7662
5:36:27PM	JAPAN	20535									‘cess

9/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7253 points. Change of -0.45%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,096,050,006 a change of -17.83%

8/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7286 points. Change of 1.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,419,094,252 a change of 8.46%

#DOW #DAX #GOLD Unusually, this is a report I’d prefer not write! Why? Because the market is making little sense presently. August is supposed to be a bit boring but predictable except thanks to a toxic combination of Mr Trump & Boris, it seems the world doesn’t know how to react.

There’s often a reversal in the markets at the end of July / start of August and we often feel it’s the case of the markets being “parked” during the holiday season. This allows a bit of volatility but strong movements are never expected until the grown-ups return in September. This year has been just a little different and the FTSE, for instance, has been abandoned in a region where The Big Picture promises reversal down to 6,600 or so.

If the market has indeed been “parked”, it’s the equivalent of dumping your kids in the central divider of the M25 and telling them to place on the grass while you go shopping. As the chart below highlights, the market is now trading below this years uptrend, only needing some negative force to drive a dangerous and sharp reversal.

Taking the attitude of the market indeed being parked, it appears anything near term on the FTSE above 7,286 points should prove capable of a lift to an initial 7,332 points. If exceeded (and we do not expect all this on a Friday!) our secondary calculation is at 7,408 points. As the chart illustrates, the primary target indicates a challenge return to the RED uptrend. If the secondary is achieved, it will appear the drop was indeed inspired by the holiday mood and we should hope for further recovery as the month continues.

Of course, we’d be remiss if we didn’t peer into the abyss…

It looks like the index now requires fail below 7,207 points to cause anguish as this calculates with an initial potential of 7,185 points. If broken, secondary is at 7,156 points. Visually, there is reason to hope for a bounce, should 7,156 make an appearance.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:04:57PM	BRENT	57.63	56.64	56.235		57.62	57.92	58.545		56.96
10:22:29PM	GOLD	1501.49	1489	1481.5		1510	1510	1516		1492
10:24:19PM	FTSE	7276.74	7214	7197.5		7304	7305	7328		7233	‘cess
10:26:12PM	FRANCE	5371	5331	5313		5376	5388	5404		5338	Success
10:28:02PM	GERMANY	11807.16	11716	11672		11813	11855	11890		11733
10:29:52PM	US500	2932.07	2880	2868.5		2907	2942	2950		2893	Success
10:32:59PM	DOW	26353.5	26102	26005		26209	26400	26434		26240	‘cess
10:35:41PM	NASDAQ	7710	7551	7493.5		7607	7741	7799.5		7574	Success
10:37:28PM	JAPAN	20790	20520	20456.5		20679	20815	20937		20520

 

8/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7286 points. Change of 1.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,419,094,252 a change of 8.46%

#SP500 #DOW We noticed Bitcoin has been doing “Bitcoin Stuff” this week, exhibiting wild and irrational movements. Like a moth to a flame, we’ve again attempted make some sense as our last report at the start of July (Link Here) proved quite prescient.

At time of writing, it’s trading around the 12,000 mark and the immediate situation suggests anything now exceeding 12,615 threatens some growth to an initial 13,198 dollars. A movement such as this hints at a challenge of the ruling BLUE downtrend, probably quite soon. Exceeding 13,198 is liable to prove interesting as we’re not the only folk equiped with a crayon to draw trend lines. Essentially, the market will doubtless assume Bitcoin is once again heading upward and our secondary of 14,540 looks quite attainable.

To be completely factual, should Bitcoin opt to do “Bitcoin Stuff” and completely outperform logic, it could easily accelerate toward the 16,000 level, perhaps even 16,600. Once in the 16,000’s, we have a flashing red light which anticipates volatility should such a level actually appear. Needless to say, it will also be true to suggest media pundits will start projecting Bitcoin heading to 20,000 dollars and above, depending on which number they pluck out of the ether.

We will grudgingly admit to some calculation issues, if this imaginary currency manages above 16,600 as the price should (logically) almost double.

Alternately, below RED and it faces a slowdown to 6,900 initially. Secondary is at the 4,000 level!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:13:28PM	BRENT	57.34									Success
10:15:32PM	GOLD	1501.79									Success
10:17:44PM	FTSE	7207.9
10:19:07PM	FRANCE	5302.7									Shambles
10:26:27PM	GERMANY	11712.83
10:28:48PM	US500	2881.32	2824	2819.5	2795	2885	2892	2900	2924	2846	Shambles
10:32:05PM	DOW	25956	25644	25590	25423	25807	26091	26121	26475	25800	Shambles
10:43:08PM	NASDAQ	7547
10:47:46PM	JAPAN	20613									‘cess

7/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7198 points. Change of 0.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,840,689,185 a change of 2.45%

#CAC40 #SP500 Sometimes, passengers in an aircraft experience an awful moment on the ground, waiting to disembark. An announcement says there will be a delay “of just a few minutes” and seasoned travellers know what that really means. Today, Tuesday, passengers in TCG’s share price disaster (prior successful report link) must have felt a similar emotion, the price looking like it was about to recover, then a “gotcha suckers” drop!

Over the years, we’ve warned repeatedly about the dangers of opening second spikes in a share. These price movements can run in either direction but our rule of thumb is of a spike down signalling a coming upward movement. Obviously, the converse is true for a spike up. TCG was spiked to 15p, curiously NOT in the opening second but rather, twelve minutes after the market opened. While perhaps this indicates a change in market strategy (as we’ve seen this a few times in the last month) but regardless, the effect was pretty dire and allows Thomas Cook to experience a trading range of 65.08%  for Tuesday. It was virtually impossible to allocate a sensible stop loss, regardless of which direction you thought it was going and perhaps this was the markets idea.

We’ve a bit of in-house mumbo jumbo now warning of danger, if Thomas Cook somehow makes it below 7.65p. Apparently, this will be a bad thing and calculates with the potential of travel down to an initial 5.3p. If broken, secondary is at 2p and hopefully bottom. Ultimate bottom is MINUS 18p (not possible).

However, for now I suspect holders of TCG are simply stuck on board, awaiting something positive happening. Price movements on the 6th August did suggest a holding pattern was being employed. If this is indeed the case, anything now exceeding 13.6p is liable to prove useful, bettering the BLUE downtrend and calculating with the potential of 19p next. If bettered, our secondary is at 23.3p and an almost certain hesitation in the recovery cycle.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:57:00PM	BRENT	58.49									‘cess
10:10:16PM	GOLD	1475.06
10:12:41PM	FTSE	7206.66
10:14:53PM	FRANCE	5267.7	5228	5208.5	5179	5287	5298	5319.5	5364	5243	Success
10:28:35PM	GERMANY	11629
10:31:09PM	US500	2877.27	2830	2808	2782	2861	2889	2901	2925	2830	‘cess
10:33:35PM	DOW	25966									Success
10:35:44PM	NASDAQ	7514.12									‘cess
10:37:35PM	JAPAN	20635									Success

 

6/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7171 points. Change of -0.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,677,276,467 a change of 2.51%