Forex GBPUSD with a 1.549 target!

#Gold #Japan An unexpected conversation with an 8 y/o grand-daughter inevitably led to me questioning the markets. Children appear able to attach value to things to such an extent, barter is possible, taking place without fuss or drama. Crucially, neither Bitcoin nor the US Dollar was involved in the girls transaction but her logic proved fascinating.

By way of background, the little monster was ‘hovering with intent’ outside the office door, clearly awaiting the moment when I published my “Live Market” futures, leaned back, stood up and stretched, before going through to the kitchen to make my second coffee of the day. It was clear my journey was going to be interrupted by an impatient child***.

 

“Alistair, can you make this fit onto my belt?” she asked. (As I don’t feel old enough to be a grandparent, I insist on first name terms) The item was a plastic scabbard, hopefully for a plastic sword and certainly not the normal thing I’d associate with either of the girls.

“Where did you get that from?”

“Swapped it at the beach on Monday…” Sudden visions of a lucky child suddenly becoming the owner of an iPad were dispelled, when the rest of the story came out. The girls had decided to open a beach cafe, something inspired by the film Madagascar. All the food and drinks were fake and they’d raided our garden for Pampas Grass fronds to decorate their pretend cafe. It looked quite convincing, at least to those younger than 10 years old.

She’d swapped 2 Pampas fronds for the plastic sword and scabbard. Her older sister managed to gain a soft toy at the cost of just a single frond. Apparently, as the day continued, the trade in Pampas fronds proved worthwhile, our dog unlikely to run out of toys for a while. We regard Pampas grass as a terrible weed, annual battles taking place to get rid of the fast growing things. Amusingly, the local village hall has them displayed outside, along with an honesty bucket, inviting passers by to purchase fronds at £2 each. Apparently some florists attempt to sell them (in the city) for around £20 each! In a clearing on the hill behind us, there are literally 1,000’s of Pampas grass plants growing, killing the prospects of anything else getting a start in the soil.

But suddenly, it appears there is a market for Pampas Grass Fronds, the children entering it seamlessly and without fuss, being able to sort out exchange rates to trade weeds for assorted junk. With hindsight, I suspect some tourist parents were probably encouraging the exchange, spotting the chance of a bargain while offloading some of their kids rubbish.

 

It begs the question, just how to the currency or crypto markets survive without the benefit of an 8 year old girl providing steerage. Why should Sterling be stronger than the US Dollar on a Monday, yet weaker on the Wednesday, suddenly attracting speculation as to the future. Our inclination is to step back and review the currency pairing from a Big Picture perspective. As shown, since 2007 GBP has enjoyed a pretty grim downhill ride and it was only at the end of 2020 when the relationship finally broke through the Blue downtrend. Our previous analysis gave an initial breakout ambition at 1.4061, a number which has been achieved and exceeded a couple of times this year.

We are inclined to believe, should the market next exceed 1.4061, a new cycle can be anticipated with future recovery to an initial 1.4760 with secondary, if bettered, a rather less certain (at present) 1.5490.

 

Our alternate scenario isn’t initially scary. After all, prices go up and down with greater volatility than the Pampas grass market. There’s an immediate non-threatening danger of weakness below 1.3730 leading to reversal to an initial 1.3417. This visually matches the price level at which the pairing exited the long term downtrend and exhibits a point at which we’d hope for a rebound. The danger comes, if 1.3417 breaks as this calculates with ongoing reversal toward 1.3131. While the price level may not sound so dreadful, by breaking below the historical level of trend break, the pairing is at risk of entering a period we’ll call stodgy . Across the wider marketplace, when shares or commodities start trading below such major levels of a trend break, price movements start to become pretty boring and the market feels very depressed, neither going up nor down with any real conviction. Perhaps this phenomena relates to the pandemic as we’re seeing the effect around the world and it’s never confined to any particular sector or product.

In a brief summary, we now regard GBPUSD as heading to 1.4760, the pair needing below 1.3417 to cancel the prospect. Who knows, for the brave this may present a superb long position opportunity with an incredibly tight stop loss possible.

Hey, chart goes here

***After ensuring the child could attach the scabbard to her belt, the inevitable happened later, while watching the USA open for business.

“Can you fix my sword?”

Patient voice: “What happened?”

“I was trying to cut (sisters name) head off and she threw a cushion. I chopped the cushion and the sword broke in half… It was her fault!”

They go home tomorrow for a few days.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued Market Price At Issue Short Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Long Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Prior
11:06:46PM BRENT 74.22 Shambles
11:09:03PM GOLD 1827.43 1809 1802 1793 1819 1830 1833 1845 1808 Success
11:11:57PM FTSE 7088.38 Success
11:13:49PM FRANCE 6549.8
11:15:53PM GERMANY 15774
11:18:01PM US500 4375.17
11:19:48PM DOW 34920
11:22:02PM NASDAQ 14910
11:24:40PM JAPAN 28537 28504 28434 28351 28609 28683 28715 28783 28590
14/07/2021 FTSE Closed at 7091 points. Change of -0.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,474,388,413 a change of 6.25%
13/07/2021 FTSE Closed at 7124 points. Change of -0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,211,106,808 a change of 2.19%
12/07/2021 FTSE Closed at 7125 points. Change of 0.06%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,120,988,724 a change of -9.74%
9/07/2021 FTSE Closed at 7121 points. Change of 1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,565,910,390 a change of -14.66%
8/07/2021 FTSE Closed at 7030 points. Change of -1.69%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,350,338,695 a change of -5.7%
7/07/2021 FTSE Closed at 7151 points. Change of 0.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,673,997,934 a change of 23.9%
6/07/2021 FTSE Closed at 7100 points. Change of -0.89%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,579,399,515 a change of 38.26%

SUCCESS above means both FAST & SLOW targets were met. ‘CESS means just the FAST target met and probably the next time it is exceeded, movement to the SLOW target shall commence.

Our commentary is in two sections. Immediately below are today’s updated comments. If our commentary remains valid, the share can be found in the bottom section which has a RED heading. Hopefully, this will mean you no longer need to flip back through previous reports. HYPERLINKS DISABLED IN THIS VERSION

Please remember, all prices are mid-price (halfway between the Buy and Sell). When we refer to a price CLOSING above a specific level, we are viewing the point where we can regard a trend as changing. Otherwise, we are simply speculating on near term trading targets. Our website is www.trendsandtargets.com.

UPDATE. We often give an initial and a secondary price. If the initial is exceeded, we still expect it to fall back but the next time the initial is bettered, the price should continue to the secondary. The converse it true with price drops.

We can be contacted at info@trendsandtargets.com. Spam filters set to maximum so only legit emails get through…

Section One – Outlook Updated Today. Click here for Section Two – Outlook Remains Valid shares

Click Epic to jump to share: LSE:AFC AFC Energy** **LSE:ASC Asos** **LSE:AV. Aviva** **LSE:BARC Barclays** **LSE:BLVN Bowleven** **LSE:BT.A British Telecom** **LSE:CAR Carclo** **LSE:CCL Carnival** **LSE:CEY Centamin** **LSE:CPI Capita** **LSE:EMG MAN** **LSE:EZJ EasyJet** **LSE:FOXT Foxtons** **LSE:IHG Intercontinental Hotels Group** **LSE:ITRK Intertek** **LSE:RR. Rolls Royce** **LSE:SPX Spirax** **LSE:VOG VICTORIA** **

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Updated charts published on : AFC Energy, Asos, Aviva, Barclays, Bowleven, British Telecom, Carclo, Carnival, Centamin, Capita, MAN, EasyJet, Foxtons, Intercontinental Hotels Group, Intertek, Rolls Royce, Spirax, VICTORIA,

LSE:AFC AFC Energy Close Mid-Price: 57.6 Percentage Change: -4.48% Day High: 60.3 Day Low: 57.2

For some reason, this has managed to clambour onto the naughty step as wea ……..

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LSE:ASC Asos. Close Mid-Price: 4707 Percentage Change: + 1.71% Day High: 4748 Day Low: 4568

Continued weakness against ASC taking the price below 4568 calculates as l ……..

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LSE:AV. Aviva. Close Mid-Price: 396.9 Percentage Change: + 0.05% Day High: 400 Day Low: 394.1

If Aviva experiences continued weakness below 394, it will invariably lead ……..

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LSE:BARC Barclays. Close Mid-Price: 170.7 Percentage Change: + 0.41% Day High: 173.62 Day Low: 169.02

Weakness on Barclays below 165 will invariably lead to 162 with secondary ……..

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LSE:BLVN Bowleven Close Mid-Price: 4.5 Percentage Change: -5.26% Day High: 4.75 Day Low: 4.25

I think it the case that even above 5p should now promote movement to an i ……..

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LSE:BT.A British Telecom Close Mid-Price: 186.3 Percentage Change: -0.43% Day High: 188.2 Day Low: 185.6

There is now little doubt below 183 is dodgy, allowing weakness down to an ……..

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LSE:CAR Carclo Close Mid-Price: 43.1 Percentage Change: -0.58% Day High: 45 Day Low: 42.4

Weakness on Carclo below 42 will invariably lead to 40p Secondary is at 24 ……..

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LSE:CCL Carnival Close Mid-Price: 1466.4 Percentage Change: -1.40% Day High: 1499.2 Day Low: 1461.8

It’s still sinking, when we near an era of buoyancy. But below 1461 sugges ……..

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LSE:CEY Centamin Close Mid-Price: 103 Percentage Change: -0.82% Day High: 103.75 Day Low: 102.45

It’s still the case weakness below 100 should take this down to 90p but im ……..

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LSE:CPI Capita Close Mid-Price: 34.76 Percentage Change: -1.56% Day High: 35.67 Day Low: 34

Weakness on Capita below 34 will invariably lead to 30p and possible bounc ……..

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LSE:EMG MAN Close Mid-Price: 192.45 Percentage Change: -1.08% Day High: 194.25 Day Low: 192.65

We regard this now as on a track to an initial 212 (and hesitation). Secon ……..

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LSE:EZJ EasyJet Close Mid-Price: 839.6 Percentage Change: -4.35% Day High: 871.4 Day Low: 838

Target Met. Ouch. Now below 838 allows a descent to 802 with secondary, if ……..

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LSE:FOXT Foxtons Close Mid-Price: 53.5 Percentage Change: -1.47% Day High: 55.5 Day Low: 50.9

Target met. If Foxtons experiences continued weakness below 50.9, it will ……..

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LSE:IHG Intercontinental Hotels Group Close Mid-Price: 4641 Percentage Change: -0.77% Day High: 4684 Day Low: 4612

Continued weakness against IHG taking the price below 4612 calculates as ……..

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LSE:ITRK Intertek Close Mid-Price: 5596 Percentage Change: -1.27% Day High: 5668 Day Low: 5552

Further movement against Intertek ABOVE 5668 should improve acceleration ……..

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LSE:RR. Rolls Royce Close Mid-Price: 92.76 Percentage Change: -0.91% Day High: 94.27 Day Low: 90.55

Target met. If Rolls Royce experiences continued weakness below 90.55, it ……..

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LSE:SPX Spirax Close Mid-Price: 14255 Percentage Change: -0.18% Day High: 14310 Day Low: 14130

Further movement against Spirax ABOVE 14310 should improve acceleration to ……..

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LSE:VOG VICTORIA Close Mid-Price: 4.15 Percentage Change: -2.35% Day High: 4.25 Day Low: 4.15

Continued weakness against VOG taking the price below 4.15 calculates as ……..

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