Trends And Targets

#Brent #DAX Why, in the UK, do many of us spoil holiday weekends with “stuff”. A visit to Ikea, trudging round B&Q, a garden centre trip, and of course, grand-daughters, complete with gold glitter which spilled everywhere. Add temperatures in double figures (it is Scotland after all) and we’re now approaching a look at Lloyds share price with wafer thin humour.

Last time Lloyds was reviewed, we calculated an initial drop target of 51p, something it ‘successfully’ hit with the market opting to gap the share downward quite aggressively. Our secondary, at 46.8p has remained untroubled, the lowest achieved thus far being 48p. In the period since 48p, the rebound has been as enthusiastic as the UK media following up on Epsteins entire British guest list. Blink and you’ll miss it. It’s almost like the media’s forgotten their lesson, after protecting Saville, Smith, Rochdale etc!

The situation remains of weakness below 48p pointing at 46.8p with some real rebound potential. If broken, secondary now looks like 41.5p. Things are liable to become serious, if the share price actually closes a session below 47.5p as there’s a further risk making itself apparent. The Big Picture shall start suggesting 30p is trying to exert a long term influence.

Ultimate bottom, if it all goes completely wrong, calculates at a very visually improbable 5p!

At time of writing, Lloyds is trading around the 50p mark, needing above 51.75p before we dare take any rise seriously as this calculates with the potential of an initial 54p and recovery above the historic uptrend. If exceeded, secondary looks like 59.4p, along with some hesitation.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:29:16PM	BRENT	58.36	58	57.015	55.67	59.62	59.97	60.37	61.25	58.36	Success
10:31:51PM	GOLD	1527.93									Success
10:35:07PM	FTSE	7103.9									Success
10:37:36PM	FRANCE	5361.2									Success
10:40:25PM	GERMANY	11693	11589	11429	11287	11687	11718	11768	11827	11605	Success
10:42:15PM	US500	2882.67									Success
10:45:50PM	DOW	25937									Success
10:57:50PM	NASDAQ	7586.12									Shambles
10:59:49PM	JAPAN	20543									Success

23/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7094 points. Change of -0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,557,094,463 a change of -9.85%

FTSE for FRIDAY Approaching the final week of a grotty month, the #FTSE currently behaves like a driver in slow traffic with a police car behind. Exquisite caution is being exercised and we feel it’s justified. Too many things are piling up, suggesting some reversal is almost upon us. This, obviously, would be silly for the driver of the car in traffic!

Thursday proved a bit of a puzzle, literally world wide. Many markets (aside from the DOW) experienced upward triggers yet failed to move. Equally, a few hit downward triggers yet failed to move. The DOW, desperate to please, hit an upward trigger, achieving initial target. It later hit a downward trigger, also achieving target. In plain English, it left us painfully aware the market isn’t giving away any immediate direction hints.

For Friday, the FTSE is interesting. Weakness now below 7103 points suggests coming reversal to an initial 7084 points. If broken, secondary calculates at 7010 points and hopefully some sort of near term bounce. If triggered, the tightest stop  looks like 7149 points.

What happens if 7149 is exceeded?

Initially, surprise recovery to an initial 7168 makes some sense. If exceeded, our longer term secondary is at 7189 points.

In both scenario, we’d remind the market is proving cautious and we shall not be aghast if the FTSE mimics everywhere else by only chasing initial targets.

Have a good, dry, weekend.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:13:39PM	BRENT	69.69	59.14	58.925			60.58	60.96
10:15:43PM	GOLD	1498.56	1492	1489			1505	1508.5
10:18:04PM	FTSE	7127.78	7101	7084			7204	7225.5
10:22:57PM	FRANCE	5394.2	5387	5373			5431	5450
10:24:41PM	GERMANY	11749	11707	11674.5			11856	11902			Shambles
10:27:00PM	US500	2920.77	2903	2891			2939	2950
10:40:21PM	DOW	26230	26087	26011.5			26379	26424.5			‘cess
10:44:08PM	NASDAQ	7702.37	7643	7630			7737	7761.5			Shambles
10:45:38PM	JAPAN	20598	20535	20486.5			20696	20753

22/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7128 points. Change of -1.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,055,126,990 a change of 4.34%

#DOW #CAC40 Every time Scotland gets restless, demanding independence from Westminster control, the price of Brent starts to drop. With the (almost) certainty of another referendum next year (The Scots voted nearly 2/3 AGAINST Brexit), we ask how the price of crude is looking. Unsurprisingly, the answer suggests pretty poorly for the longer term.

The immediate issue is at 54.5 as we’d regard this as a trigger for some fairly firm reversals. Below such a level allows weakness down to an initial 45 dollars with secondary, if broken, at a bottom (hopefully) at 39 dollars. If triggered, the stuff requires above Blue, presently 63.5, to cancel the drop potentials anytime soon but realistically, we calculate the product needs above 67.51 dollars to utterly foul the reversal potentials.

We’re being a little satirical with causes for the drop – the plunge to 28 dollars didn’t take place until 15 months after the last Scottish referendum. Unsurprisingly, the writing had been on the wall for a major drop at the very start of 2014, around the time the last independence referendum was announced.

On this occasion, we’re calculating an ultimate bottom potential at 26 dollars, if everything goes horribly wrong for Brent.

In the event a miracle occurs, above 67.5 looks like it should trigger moves to an initial 70.5 dollars. If bettered, secondary is at 75 and a probable hesitation. For now though, we rather suspect we shall see 39 dollars drip into view.

Recent opinion polls are suggesting a majority in favour of an independent Scotland. Amusingly, it also appears both Labour and Conservatives in Scotland are seeking to break away from their masters in London. It’s unclear quite how that will fly when they campaign against independence.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:16:06PM	BRENT	60.1									Success
10:17:50PM	GOLD	1502.6
10:22:08PM	FTSE	7201.57
10:30:52PM	FRANCE	5427.5	5380	5371	5347	5435	5443	5450	5483	5380	Success
10:33:51PM	GERMANY	11809.63									Success
10:36:03PM	US500	2932.02									Success
10:44:08PM	DOW	26262.7	26112	26093	26033	26248	26273	26346	26502	26070	Success
10:45:40PM	NASDAQ	7749.12									Success
10:46:55PM	JAPAN	20711									Success

 

21/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7203 points. Change of 1.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,844,792,764 a change of -0.8%

#Nasdaq #NK200 Batman sprung to mind when working on this one. Actually, not Batman but instead, the depths TV companies go to milk a franchise. We had “Batman”, we had “Gotham” (the Bats early years) and now, digging really deep, they came up with “Pennyworth”, Batmans butler’ early life. Expecting drenched in drivel, it turned out to be a pretty good, violent, non superhero, subversive, alternate England in the ’60’s onwards. Paloma Faith stars, bringing an unrelenting presence, reminding of the infamous Myra Hindley photograph. (okay, someone here binged on 5 hours of telly during last weekend) It is emphatically not for children!

It appears sometimes when you dig deep, you can find a gem!

I’m not so sure about the Mining Sectors prospects but it appears ready to dig deeper than TV producers go. This presents a fairly big issue as we’re already showing The Banking Sector as dangerous, Oil & Gas as dangerous, and now the Mining sector is dangerous. It’s almost as if alarm bells are ringing, warning of imminent stock market reversals as we’re concerned at the plethora of dangers queuing up.

For The Mining Sector, it is presently trading around 17,385 points, below the uptrend since 2016. This results in the expectation of traffic below 17,350 looking capable of reversal down to 17,060 and the probability of a short lived bounce. Our secondary, if such a level breaks on an initial dip, is at 15,618 along with a real bounce, hopefully. Serious danger awaits should the market actually close below this point as severe reversal down to the 12,100 level calculates as very probable. The implication behind this is fairly straightforward. If stalking a Major Miner due to their attractive share price, it shall prove wise to glance at the ruling sector (NMW1770) and check its position. Something which looks like a bargain could easily bury investors fairly quickly.

To consign this scenario to the tailings pile of analysis, the Mining Index needs better 18,220 points as this should make Major Miners attractive again, due to the potentials of a sharp lift to 19,322 and relative safety for the sector.

For now, confidence is lacking.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:34:04PM	BRENT	59.82
10:56:35PM	GOLD	1507.98
10:58:36PM	FTSE	7100.16									‘cess
11:00:35PM	FRANCE	5332									Shambles
11:02:37PM	GERMANY	11608									Shambles
11:05:49PM	US500	2894.77
11:08:53PM	DOW	25911									‘cess
11:18:12PM	NASDAQ	7659	7642	7630.5	7593	7693	7702	7718.5	7744	7659
11:19:52PM	JAPAN	20501	20468	20430	20338	20593	20593	20631	20685	20485

 

20/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7125 points. Change of -0.89%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,883,785,499 a change of -8.29%

#GOLD #SP500 We constantly remind readers we’re not gifted with time travel. When “the computer” makes a price projection, the stupid box is completely unable to pull a Dr Who stunt and give a timeframe. It’s a bit like predicting a Brexit date – not possible other than knowing it will happen. Probably! As a result, the safest thing we can suggest is not getting excited about a share being “cheap” if a ruling sector trend suggests downward travel.

The Oil Sector is presently in a slightly scary place with some truly foul potentials. As a result, Oil Shares doubtless face a bumpy ride if the sector wanders below 8,214 points. We’d regard this as the trigger for reversal to a harmless looking 7,985 and hopefully some sort of bounce. Alas, we’d suspect any bounce shall prove short lived – especially if the initial surge down breaks our 7,985 target level.

The implication of a break will signal the risk of continued weakness down to 6,230 points, perhaps even a bottom at 4,749 as the “ultimate” point at which a proper rebound can be hoped. This, unfortunately, even makes some visual sense.

We’re not optimistic about the sectors chances but near term, there is potentially the opportunity to map sector strength. Above 8485 points calculates with an initial potential of 8624 with secondary, if exceeded, coming along at 8801 points. This will at least challenge the most recent uptrend and allow a longer term 9,154 points along with confirmation the entire sector is “rangebound” for the present.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:01:01PM	BRENT	59.47									‘cess
10:02:49PM	GOLD	1496.67									‘cess
10:04:25PM	FTSE	7180.29									Success
10:06:31PM	FRANCE	5358.2									Success
10:09:10PM	GERMANY	11700.33									‘cess
10:11:59PM	US500	2921.72	2899	2886	2867	2927	2932	2936	2949	2909	Success
10:14:34PM	DOW	26124									Success
10:16:46PM	NASDAQ	7712.62									Success
10:18:42PM	JAPAN	20645

 

19/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7189 points. Change of 1.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,325,102,797 a change of 11.02%

#Brent #DAX It’s been nearly a year since we last irritated ourselves (link) with a look at the clown farm, The Banking Sector. Unsurprisingly, it did NOT escape from trouble, it achieved our initial drop target, and now is closing (finally) on our secondary target, the point at which we hope for a rebound.

Or will it?

The immediate situation is of weakness below 3360 still indicating the potential of 3236 and hopefully a bounce but we’re pretty concerned. A break below 3236 shall move the index below the long term RED uptrend and suggest the potential of 3078 making a guest appearance. This would tend be a jolly poor show as while there will be hope for a bounce as the index meets the lows of 2016 and the Brexit vote, the impact of breaking the uptrend since the banking crash of 2009 will easily allow a third target level to make an appearance, a completely absurd looking 2460.

To be honest, it’s not as absurd as a major attraction below RED calculating at just 320 points. Obviously, an utterly silly number as we can surely trust the banking system…

In the interests of fairness, there’s quite a lot arguing for a recoil if 3236 makes an appearance and it’s certainly getting close to this target level. If any strength is indeed evident, it could bounce anytime soon. This being the case, movement now above 3467 should prove capable of a market lift to 3529 points. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 3840 and a coming challenge of the downtrend since 2008. We’re not inclined to any optimism over this scenario, just yet.

About the only conclusion we draw suggests some misery remains within the retail banking sector but there appears a chance of some recovery soon. We can hope!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
12:07:19PM	BRENT	58.43	57.9	56.61	55.04	58.75	58.8	59.25	59.84	58
12:41:38PM	GOLD	1512.97									Success
1:26:37PM	FTSE	7131.75
1:34:09PM	FRANCE	5301
1:36:01PM	GERMANY	11578.86	11418	11367.5	11295	11505	11585	11657	11788	11490	‘cess
1:39:52PM	US500	2891.29									Success
1:41:58PM	DOW	25918.3									‘cess
1:46:53PM	NASDAQ	7602.87									Success
1:55:55PM	JAPAN	20605									‘cess

16/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7117 points. Change of 0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,796,388,479 a change of -14.47%

#DJI #FTSE As we ponder an end of civilisation, due to global market reversals, it occurs the UK’s Brexit shambles is “off the hook” for damaging the stock market. Or is the UK still secretly a driving force in world affairs, despite woeful political leadership? Last time we had so many shares needing an update in a single day was immediately following the Brexit vote!

There is still some hope the UK will bottom around Thursdays low of 7020 points. We shall be alarmed in the event 7007 now breaks, thanks to our immediate drop target calculating at 6984 points. If broken, secondary computes at 6906. Hopefully, if this scenario triggers, it doesn’t all happen in a single day.

There is a chance Thursdays low of 7020 shall be deemed “bottom” with the result a rebound could occur on Friday. It closed Thursday at 7059 points, needing only above 7098 points to tick the first “bottom is in” box. Above 7098 allows recovery to an initial comfortable looking 7156 points. If exceeded, secondary comes along at 7246 points. The initial ambition would imply a coming bonk against the immediate downtrend. But if bettered, nearly another 100 points will make a lot of visual sense.

We remain a little suspicious over this reversal. A drop at the end of July / start August is fairly normal, as is a surprise recovery which lasts through to September and the end of the holiday season. On this occasion, the market has certainly retreated further than we’d like but unless 7007 breaks, some hope exists for recovery soon.

Have a good weekend.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:46:42PM	BRENT	58.12	57.43	56.63		58.77	59.2	59.44		58.36	‘cess
9:49:59PM	GOLD	1524.74	1512	1510		1521	1527	1531		1516
10:01:43PM	FTSE	7082.04	7001	6949.5		7143	7145	7190.5		7061	‘cess
10:03:55PM	FRANCE	5237	5169	5129		5263	5283	5316		5202	‘cess
10:28:39PM	GERMANY	11432	11340	11254.5		11480	11505	11582.5		11346	‘cess
10:30:16PM	US500	2851	2816	2801		2855	2870	2876.5		2833	‘cess
10:32:43PM	DOW	25603	25227	25110		25600	25716	25863		25409	‘cess
10:36:41PM	NASDAQ	7500	7419	7369		7507	7540	7584.25		7443	‘cess
10:39:16PM	JAPAN	20358	20160	20069.5		20303	20513	20555		20310	‘cess

 

15/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7067 points. Change of -1.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,608,085,951 a change of -5.76%