Glencore for 3/07/2019

#Nasdaq #CAC40 Our last public review of Glencore was back in February this year, when we provided criteria for a 10% share price rise. Despite relative chaos in the world of heavy metal, this ambition was successfully achieved and exceeded. What has happened since is melting our collective brain cell!

At present, the share is trading around the 279 level and unfortunately, despite beating our prior secondary target with a lunge to 340p, the price has broken the uptrend since the start of 2016 and in doing so, is painting a series of “lower lows”. From our perspective, the news is quite grim as trades below 248p (which we suspect shall happen) look capable of driving reversal down to an initial 228p.

Worse, if such a level breaks, our secondary is a theoretical “bottom” of 193p. We’re forced to use the term “bottom” quite loosely, thanks to the visuals tending suggest 132p should be “bottom” for a real bounce. To achieve such a low, we’d suspect either negative news flow or, more probably, negative market conditions, shall conspire to provoke 132p making an appearance.

At present, the share price needs exceed 300p just to regain the prior trend. In such an event, we calculate an initial price target of 312p with secondary, if bettered, a pretty comfortable looking 346p.

For now, we fear the worst, suspecting 132p shall prove irresistible.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:50:23PM

BRENT

62.69

               

Success

10:52:12PM

GOLD

1419.19

               

Success

10:55:04PM

FTSE

7573.98

               

Success

10:57:14PM

FRANCE

5580

5554

5535.5

5510

5590

5590

5599

5614

5561

10:58:53PM

GERMANY

12559

               

11:01:28PM

US500

2974.87

               

‘cess

11:03:39PM

DOW

26801

               

11:06:34PM

NASDAQ

7814

7735

7703

7665

7798

7820

7834.5

7871

7762

Shambles

11:08:29PM

JAPAN

21693

               

2/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7559 points. Change of 0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,102,081,659 a change of 7.26%

Ferrari for 2/07/2019

#GOLD #US500 Last time we reviewed Ferrari (link here), we speculated on the price reaching 160, along with an argument in favour of the marque proving supreme in Formula One this year. From our perspective, we got the important question right but their World Championship chances look dodgy.

Ferrari share price in New York has achieved an all time high, exceeding our 160 and now trading at record levels. The next phase of a “safe” price climb shall come, if it trades beyond 165 dollars. Recent days brought highs of 163.7, close to our 165 trigger level but still not exceeding it. Perhaps if Ferrari get a thrashing at their next outing to the British Grand Prix, we shall see the share soar higher again.

The important thing, if 165 bettered, is we’re showing the potential of 188 making an appearance, a point at which we’d normally anticipate some turbulence. If 188 exceeded, the price could easily accelerate to 193p (okay, both targets are essentially the same) but we really will expect some reversals – perhaps short term – to take hold at these levels.

Given the share prices form this year, the worst thing which could happen will be Ferrari starting to win races, just in case the converse of price growth appears! In such an instance, the share requires CLOSE a session below RED, presently at 148 dollars. A disaster like this is liable to promote a visit to 140 with little chance of a successful complaint to the stewards. A larger, more painful, issue arises if 140 breaks as “bottom” should prove to be 121 dollars.

Unusually, we’ve painted the RED uptrend against Ferrari’s daily share price closing level. Most of the time, we regard this as foolish but there’s little doubt the real uptrend is being defined by the the point at which the share closes each day and NOT the low of the day. This is quite important but makes us question price moves at the beginning of May. Often, this sort of trend break serves as early warning, almost like ‘proof’ the trend is not sacrosanct and can be broken.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:55:07PM

BRENT

65.16

               

‘cess

9:57:57PM

GOLD

1384.05

1381

1377.5

1357

1398

1396

1399

1405

1386

Success

10:01:22PM

FTSE

7508

               

Success

10:05:48PM

FRANCE

5575

               

Success

10:08:04PM

GERMANY

12541.62

               

Success

10:10:28PM

US500

2964.62

2951

2946.5

2936

2967

2971

2976.5

3012

2950

Success

10:13:34PM

DOW

26704

               

Success

10:21:01PM

NASDAQ

7766

               

Success

10:23:14PM

JAPAN

21699

               

Success

 

 

1/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7497 points. Change of 0.97%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,688,983,351 a change of -13.08%

Bitcoin etc for 1/07/2019

Barclays, Lloyds, Kingfisher and the Movie: Yesterday thoughts. We’re opting to start the week with an update on items reviewed last week and anything else which takes our fancy. Being “dragged” to watch “Yesterday” proved a pleasant surprise, a good film and tempted to go AGAIN! As for the important things, Bitcoin comes first.

To deal with Bitcoin, what happened proved quite fascinating from our nerdy perspective. At 5:30pm on Wed 26th, it achieved our 13,286 dollars. Better still, the phony currency exceeded target on the first surge, hitting 13,292 before sharply falling back to target level. This (thankfully) confirmed we’d been monitoring the correct trend but such was the pace of Bitcoin acceleration that next time it exceeded our target level, the price powered on upward to 13,880. And then, it dropped like a stone, almost feeling like the market “knew” it had gone to high and needed stuffed back under its rock.

The immediate problem is fairly straightforward. At present, it’s trading around the 11k level, needing below 10,200 to enter a cycle down to 9,300 and ideally a proper rebound.

It now requires – according to our criteria anyway – to trade above 12,925 as this calculates as entering a cycle to an initial 13,980 dollars. If bettered, secondary is at 14,550 and a new high since it broke an important downtrend. This sort of thing takes the price firmly into a region where a “long term – or later that day” target of 16,560 looks pretty certain to provoke some hesitation in any further upward surge.

Kingfisher appear to be doing something worthwhile. Our report (link here) mentioned the importance of the price bettering 222p anytime soon as it takes the share into a region with an initial 235p and beyond. From the point at which it closed last week, it should prove worth watching in the days ahead.

Barclays theoretically does not need discussed, the share price continuing to wobble around in a Zombie state. While our report (link here) demands in better 162p to be taken seriously, it will probably be worth watching for trades exceeding 152p in the week ahead, due to an initial 157 looking possible with secondary 160p. While neither is sufficient to remove the share from Big Picture trouble, it will illustrate rather neatly the reality of prices rarely going straight UP or DOWN.

Lloyds assiduously avoided breaking below our 56p trigger level (Report link here) but to be honest, we’ve little confidence in the price. However, Friday’s session commenced with a peculiar price movement, one which apparently calculates with near term movement above the days high of 57.43 being capable of some growth to a pretty tame looking 59.12p. If exceeded, secondary is at 60.3p. As explained with Barclays above, neither target proves sufficient to extract the share price from danger.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

12:01:42PM

BRENT

64.43

64.02

63.88

63.54

65.55

66.08

66.64

67.51

65.14

‘cess

12:03:32PM

GOLD

1409.9

               

‘cess

12:05:32PM

FTSE

7450.77

               

‘cess

12:07:17PM

FRANCE

5531

               

‘cess

12:09:27PM

GERMANY

12449.37

12314

12267

12206

12409

12450

12470.5

12514

12370

Success

12:11:10PM

US500

2950.17

               

Success

12:12:40PM

DOW

26654.4

               

3:11:46PM

NASDAQ

7696.99

               

3:14:19PM

JAPAN

21375

               

‘cess

28/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7425 points. Change of 0.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,545,369,204 a change of 24.51%

27/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7402 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,256,939,146 a change of -12.83%

FTSE & Bitcoin for 28/06/2019

#Nasdaq #DAX We started this week, proposing a scenario where Bitcoin could soar to 13,286 dollars. The scenario triggered, the phony currency actually achieving 13,800 before hitting a bit of turbulence. Perhaps turbulence is a bit of understatement, given the -20% thrashing it received. In fact, it may fall further.

Continued Bitcoin weakness below 10,330 calculates with the potential of a further 1,000 dollar drop. It “should” bounce by 9,330, especially due to it exceeding our earlier upward target. The implication given is of further strength in the future now calculating with 16,000 dollars and beyond.

Current behaviour highlights one of our great dislikes with Bitcoin. Traditionally, we give primary and secondary targets, our thinking being of turbulence at each target level. In the case of Bitcoin, it often vaguely follows “the rules” but with price swings more reminiscent of AIM shares 10 years ago. When ramping groups would seek to substantially enhance investors expectations, creating a buying frenzy for dodgy AIM companies, invariably this would leave a majority of investors “walking funny”. Thankfully, this is one area where market authorities tend exert some control and Pump & Dumps, while still present, are less frequent. Of course, there’s now Bitcoin available to damage traders wealth as its price swings can defy logic.

As for The FTSE for Friday (It closed Thursday at 7,402), we’ve a ruling expectation of the index heading to 7,328 points and hopefully a bottom. The market needs better 7,437 to escape the immediate downtrend, giving a pretty easy visual level for a stop loss. Anything near term below 7,375 should promote the final downhill drag to target. There is a problem, if 7,328 breaks. We obviously can calculate a secondary and it’s at 7,302 points, a level where a real rebound can be hoped.

Importantly, if we opt to review the upward potentials for the index, the market presently needs better 7,432 points to trigger a near term rise toward 7,464 points. We have some doubts about this, given it would exceed the market downtrend since May 2018! In the unlikely basis this proves correct, our secondary calculates at 7,464 and, rather amazingly, takes the UK market into a longer term region with 7,630 as a major ambition.

Have a good weekend. It’s the Austrian GP, generally quite a good one following the utter boredom supplied by France, yet again. Perhaps F1 management could do race fans a favour, ditching both Monaco and France from the annual event calendar as neither tend deliver an actual race.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:55:17PM

BRENT

65.55

               

9:57:38PM

GOLD

1409.64

               

9:59:42PM

FTSE

7407.6

               

Shambles

10:02:28PM

FRANCE

5489.7

               

‘cess

10:05:17PM

GERMANY

12301

12216

12173

12119

12289

12335

12354

12403

12258

‘cess

10:06:46PM

US500

2929.22

               

10:09:11PM

DOW

26555

               

10:11:18PM

NASDAQ

7659.25

7620

7598

7534

7690

7690

7719.5

7753

7626

10:13:29PM

JAPAN

21222

               

‘cess

27/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7402 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,256,939,146 a change of -12.83%

Barclays for 27/06/2019

#SP500 #CAC40 Sometimes we rabbit on about “horizontal trends” and nowhere is the feature quite as demonstrated as Barclays share price since 2011. We’ve shown it with a Purple line on the chart, though perhaps it may be Magenta. Surprisingly, there was even military conflict regarding this, The Battle of Magenta between the French and the Austrians in 1859!

Spoiling the story, the colour conflict had nothing to do with the battle, especially as the dye was discovered in 1859 and named in honour of the event. It is interesting to note the leader of French forces was actually of Irish descent, his family driven out of Ireland due to English property confiscations, opting to settle in France. Patrice de MacMahon (Paddy to his mates) eventually became President of France!

Aside from a whimsical wander through history, along with an ongoing in-house debate regarding Purple or Magenta, we should really discuss what’s happening (or rather NOT happening) with Barclays share price.

Last time we reviewed it, we waxed lyrical about the dangers of 148.823p, if the share had the temerity to close below this level. Such a disaster has happened 3 times in the last week, salt being rubbed on the wound by the price also trading below 147p (apparently the final drop trigger) for a few hours. Yet, the price has not plunged into the abyss of doom, instead appearing to find some sort of excuse for a bounce.

Alas, this is where the Purple (or Magenta) line comes into play, a horizontal trend dating back 8 years and one we’d ignored, due to Barclays share price habit of dipping below this 147p line, only to recovery sharply thereafter. Only in 2016 – following the Brexit vote (circled) – did the price conclusively dip below this line but once again, sharply recovered. It’s important to accept therefore this trend can be broken. The situation now, from a Big Picture perspective, is of weakness below 146p now entering a cycle down to an initial 134p. Secondary, when broken, is a bottom, hopefully, of 114p.

To a degree, it feels we are clutching at straws, perplexed Barclays has avoided the opportunity to drive off a cliff. The answer to our confusion doubtless lies with politics and political uncertainty as we await white smoke coming from 10 Downing St chimney to tell us which bus driver has been anointed to actually steer the nation.

Currently, Barclays share price requires above 162p to suggest it has actually bottomed, in doing so entering a region where a cycle to 175p should commence. If bettered, a longer term 192p is now possible.

If we adhere to our “normal” rules, we must accept 114p looks like the eventual drop target.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:13:33PM

BRENT

65.52

               

Success

10:15:00PM

GOLD

1409.66

               

‘cess

10:16:56PM

FTSE

7399.76

               

Shambles

10:19:28PM

FRANCE

5495.5

5492

5464.5

5425

5533

5533

5544

5561

5500

Shambles

10:21:51PM

GERMANY

12239.42

               

10:23:47PM

US500

2910

2909

2902.5

2882

2927

2934

2942

2953

2914

‘cess

10:26:14PM

DOW

26522

               

10:33:12PM

NASDAQ

7614.37

               

‘cess

10:38:42PM

JAPAN

21094

               

Sorry

 
 
 
 
26/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7416 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,030,549,903 a change of 13.52%

Lloyds for 26/06/2019

#SP500 #NK225 Our monthly visit to a favourite Banking Sector candidate, Lloyds, once again permitted self congratulation for a prior report. (Link Here) Alas, the next few sessions are liable to prove “interesting”, thanks to the potentials if the price manages to stumble below 56p. We moaned, previously, of banking shares dancing to Brexit tunes and this remains the case.

In fact, if we review the overall banking sector, FTSE:NMX8250, at time of writing it’s trading at 3781 and is flirting with some fairly nasty dangers. It only requires weakness below 3730 to trigger some misery down to an initial 3600 with secondary, when broken, at a bottom (hopefully) of 3212 points. Crucially, similar to Lloyds, it has not yet broken its final immolation trigger, so hope remains.

In the case of Lloyds, below 56p now calculates with travel down to 51.8 next. This ambition coincides with a long term uptrend which implies a bounce can be expected, should such a level make an appearance. Our secondary, if 51.8 breaks, is down at 46.8p, a point where there’s almost a requirement for a rebound. The “however” is quite dangerous, thanks to 46.8 taking the share into a region where the Big Picture computes with 41p as a pretty major expectation, along with an eventual journey down to 26p.

Our suspicion is we shall witness 51.8p eventually and this should co-incide with the overall sector at the 3600 level. And hopefully, everything should rebound.

At present, we require Lloyds to exceed 62.25p as this should calculate with a genuine bounce, propelling the share into a region where an initial 67p is supposed to be real. According to the tea leaves, our secondary of 71.25p risks being game changing for the longer term, allowing some fairly impressive (and unheard of for nearly 10 years) longer term target levels.

For now, while we can hope 51.8p shall be “it”, historical behaviour in the banking sector makes us fear the worst.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:28:35PM

BRENT

64.45

               

9:30:48PM

GOLD

1422.93

               

Success

9:41:09PM

FTSE

7396

               

Shambles

9:42:50PM

FRANCE

5494.7

               

9:44:58PM

GERMANY

12188.79

               

‘cess

9:47:02PM

US500

2918.29

2915

2913

2896

2937

2937

2942

2951

2920

Success

9:49:46PM

DOW

26558.5

               

‘cess

9:52:07PM

NASDAQ

7601.75

               

Success

9:54:34PM

JAPAN

21094

21058

20994

20787

21188

21223

21253

21318

21112

‘cess

25/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7422 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,312,471,944 a change of 3.25%