Trends And Targets

#FTSE for FRIDAY, our most popular regular article is now read from Australia to Russia, Reunion Island, Argentina, China and of course the UK and USA. We currently number 41 countries visiting on a Friday. As is said, “No pressure then!”, while writing a cheery near term outlook with a chart more colourful that a childs Xmas card.

Firstly, we need find the all important FTSE Big Number, the point which the market needs break to trash the uptrend (RED) since the crash of 2009. At present, it’s at 6,609 points.

Next, we need review the uptrend (Yellow) since the start of 2016 and it’s at 6875 points.

Finally, we’ve got the uptrend (Green) since the Brexit vote, presently lurking at 6816 points.

Armed with the above 3 numbers, we can decide if the UK stock market is on the verge of collapse. As it’s presently at 7,137, the answer is clearly NO despite suffering a pretty grotty week. The usual suspects can be blamed, the three ‘B’s. Boris, Brexit, and Mr Trump.

Fans of chart patterns (thankfully now following the dinosaurs) will have noted the Head & Shoulders formation on the FTSE during this year. Conventional arithmetic attributed to this pattern suggests the market should relax to 6,607 points. This risks breaking all three major trends, causing a rush for clean underwear. Presently, there is very little making such a drop inevitable. Below 7,000 points would certainly justify some panic though.

However, we do have concerns, thanks to recent movements.

At present, weakness now below 7,130 points risks reversal to an initial 7,098 points. If broken, secondary calculates at 7,026 points. Even visually, there are several reasons to anticipate a rebound, should 7,026 appear. With an election approaching and a fear of “the wrong result”, travel down to such a level makes a lot of sense prior to The Vote. In the event this 7,026 drop target appears and opting for a blind “Long” position, stop needs be pretty wide at 6,950 points.

There’s an issue, should 6,950 break. This would imply a further trip down to 6,844 and probable rebound against the Brexit Vote uptrend in Green.

Additionally, we need consider another factor. Writing about market movements, tossing in loads of numbers, risks utter confusion to the reader as it certainly provokes “number blindness” in the writer. Therefore, with this excellent excuse to pause for a cup of tea, shall return in a moment…

Now armed with a fresh cup of tea, obviously rarely do things move in an utterly straight line, resulting in the scenario of anything near term above 7,181 allegedly being capable of triggering recovery to an initial 7,212 points. If exceeded, secondary calculates at a more interesting 7,261 points. If triggered, the tightest stop is horribly wide at 7,131 points.

Have a good weekend.

FREE FIRST MOVE FRIDAY!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:11:45PM	BRENT	63.27	62.37	61.98			63.86	64.29			‘cess
9:19:07PM	GOLD	1476.33	1472	1466			1480	1482			Shambles
9:24:53PM	FTSE	7142.32	7127	7099.5			7203	7222.5
9:27:15PM	FRANCE	5808.9	5785	5767.5			5850	5866			Success
9:35:58PM	GERMANY	13080	13049	12997			13148	13207.5			Shambles
9:37:46PM	US500	3117.92	3102	3097.5			3120	3126
9:42:24PM	DOW	27683	27552	27487.5			27772	27830			Shambles
9:44:25PM	NASDAQ	8307.37	8268	8255.5			8336	8359.5			Shambles
9:46:38PM	JAPAN	23311	23244	23167.5			23405	23466.5			‘cess

 

5/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7137 points. Change of -0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,778,792,615 a change of 2.21%

4/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7188 points. Change of 0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,653,961,334 a change of -20.69%

3/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7158 points. Change of -1.74%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,128,755,265 a change of 21.45%

2/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7285 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,869,768,076 a change of 26.83%

29/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7346 points. Change of -0.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,628,092,745 a change of 28.25%

28/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7416 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,608,679,537 a change of -31.8%

27/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7429 points. Change of 0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,291,535,835 a change of -43.03%

 

#Nasdaq #Dax As the latest company to discover “accounting errors”, Saatchi share price has plummeted and prompted a few emails. One puzzle has been finally answered, the reason why large corporate accountants seem to change their names? After all, being associated with a major ‘oops’ certainly justifies a swift adjustment of identification. The current acronyms investigating Saatchi, PwC, were brought in once the previous acronym KPMG were dismissed.

Perhaps someone at KPMG shall now suggest the company use their full name in future, to dissociate themselves from the Saachi debacle. After all, Price Waterhouse Coopers successfully left a few scandals behind with their rebranding… All joking aside, there are currently just 4 true international auditors, 3 of which are UK based with KPMG being Netherlands. Corporate bodies are not spoiled for choice, when choosing their auditors.

The writer should perhaps admit to grinding an axe, once paying a large tax sum which could have been substantially reduced, blissfully unaware corporate accountants (mentioned previously) were treating his personal tax liability as “small fry”. Twenty years later, it still irritates.

Saatchi share price movements, while dire, appear to be provoking discussion about a possible takeover attempts anytime now. From our viewpoint, the share has not yet reached bottom as it appears on track for 40p. Certainly, we would expect a bounce around such a level, if only due to it being impossible to calculate below such a point. To get out of trouble, any miracle rebound needs exceed 161p currently, visually an impossible task without the presence of game changing news.

We suspect, quite strongly, this shall prove worth keeping a close eye on in the days/weeks ahead. While the low on the 4th of 69p was certainly “close” to our 40p calculation, from an immediate perspective below 69p should initially target 63p as “last chance saloon”. If 63p breaks, a journey down to the 40p level looks inevitable.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:43:01PM	BRENT	62.89									Success
11:02:16PM	GOLD	1475.41
11:04:07PM	FTSE	7196.15
11:06:35PM	FRANCE	5808.8									Success
11:09:21PM	GERMANY	13155.74	13022	12964.5	12895	13088	13174	13208.25	13249	13098	‘cess
11:11:09PM	US500	3111.42									‘cess
11:14:08PM	DOW	27653.6									Success
11:16:24PM	NASDAQ	8298.07									‘cess
11:18:48PM	JAPAN	23355	23172	23119.5	23033	23313	23379	23416	23591	23236

 

4/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7188 points. Change of 0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,653,961,334 a change of -20.69%

3/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7158 points. Change of -1.74%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,128,755,265 a change of 21.45%

2/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7285 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,869,768,076 a change of 26.83%

29/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7346 points. Change of -0.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,628,092,745 a change of 28.25%

28/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7416 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,608,679,537 a change of -31.8%

27/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7429 points. Change of 0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,291,535,835 a change of -43.03%

26/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,287,781,943 a change of 67.52%

#CAC40 #SP500 Our attempt at being funny with a Xmas Calendar has ‘kinda’ fallen apart with the markets experiencing a truly grotty start to December. Even Greggs, purveyors of future waistline problems, are looking slightly dodgy, despite rumours suggesting they are doing the catering for the Nato lunch at Buck House!

It appears anything near term below 2004 on Greggs should find a bottom, ideally prior to 1885p. Should 1885 break for any reason, the share price “almost” must bounce at 1839p as the implications below such a level look about as unpleasant as that pie vendor beside the main entrance to Waterloo. Or to be plain, 1432 becomes the best hope for surprise recovery, though the Big Picture tells us bottom should end up at 1020p. Hopefully this scenario is unlikely. Painting a picture where a share price halves always feels like a venture into panic mongering.

More hopeful appears any rebound capable of exceeding 2150p should bring the share price up faster than an undiagnosed Coeliac (the gluten thing) looking for a loo, after eating a Greggs sandwich. Initially, we’re calculating growth to 2274p but visually, our secondary calculation of 2458 looks very realistic.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:38:17PM	BRENT	60.93									‘cess
9:40:50PM	GOLD	1477.85									Success
10:05:47PM	FTSE	7185.67									Success
10:18:12PM	FRANCE	5758.9	5695	5681.5	5586	5772	5772	5776	5803	5710	Success
10:20:41PM	GERMANY	13055.56									Shambles
10:23:42PM	US500	3092.12	3069	3059	3045	3107	3104	3109	3126	3079	Success
10:26:54PM	DOW	27495									Success
10:30:15PM	NASDAQ	8254.07									Success
10:32:29PM	JAPAN	23122									Success

 

3/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7158 points. Change of -1.74%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,128,755,265 a change of 21.45%

2/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7285 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,869,768,076 a change of 26.83%

29/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7346 points. Change of -0.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,628,092,745 a change of 28.25%

28/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7416 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,608,679,537 a change of -31.8%

27/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7429 points. Change of 0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,291,535,835 a change of -43.03%

26/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,287,781,943 a change of 67.52%

25/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,544,320,565 a change of 6.78%

#GOLD #DOW Sirius HAD been getting painful, achieving and even breaking our prior (link) drop target at 3.3p. However… it is possible the share is now preening itself in the hope of providing a little Christmas miracle. Aside from the unpleasant detail it’s now calculating with an “ultimate” bottom of minus 17p!

However, if we leave the dreadful reality of real life aside and instead, review movements since May of this year, SXX has managed exceed the immediate downtrend (presently at 3.41255p) and thankfully has spent the last few sessions hovering just above the trend, rather than retreat below. Without a doubt, it is “fingers crossed” time as movement now above 3.9p is supposed to generate a lift to 4.3p next. As the inset highlights, it appears clear the market is reacting to the trend, so hopefully the price can find an excuse to do something positive.

If movement exceeds 4.3p on any initial upward surge, our secondary calculates at 5p.

Visually, such an ambition makes sense as it takes the share price into the region from September, when the price was manipulated downward to 4.7p. It’s the sort of price level where the market would opt to form a glass ceiling until such time Sirius’ hopes for the future improve.

Then again, there is that Minus 17p calculation. Numbers can be funny as presently, SXX actually needs above 17p to essentially cancel this Big Picture drop potential. In fact, even above 13p would regain the historical uptrend, giving considerable hope for the longer term. We’d certainly have strong concerns, if the price manages retreat below the Blue downtrend at 3.41 (as in, actually close below the trend) thanks to reversals becoming very probable. In such a scenario, last chance salon is at 1.4p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:26:15PM	BRENT	60.81
10:28:27PM	GOLD	1462.79	1452	1447.5	1441	1462	1467	1469.5	1476	1456
10:31:25PM	FTSE	7296.29									Success
10:36:49PM	FRANCE	5796.7									Success
10:40:35PM	GERMANY	12991.3									Suc/Sham
10:52:14PM	US500	3113.77									Success
10:55:07PM	DOW	27783.4	27768	27670	27645	27848	27910	27970	28035	27800	Success
10:58:41PM	NASDAQ	8308									Success
11:01:21PM	JAPAN	23177									Success

2/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7285 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,869,768,076 a change of 26.83%

29/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7346 points. Change of -0.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,628,092,745 a change of 28.25%

28/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7416 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,608,679,537 a change of -31.8%

27/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7429 points. Change of 0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,291,535,835 a change of -43.03%

26/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,287,781,943 a change of 67.52%

25/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,544,320,565 a change of 6.78%

22/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 1.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,192,412,665 a change of -5.45%

#Brent #Dax As it’s December and sometimes, share prices can do silly things, we’re choosing a different oddball every day to hopefully illustrate a near term trade possibility. When we open the Advent Calendar, Rockfire Res. are behind the 2nd door and thankfully, it indeed has some potentials showing.

Rockfire closed last week at 1.35 and visually, now needs above just 1.6p to make further growth likely. Such a scenario calculates with an initial target at 2.12p, an ambition which makes sense from a charty perspective. As can be seen quite clearly, the share has experienced a Glass Ceiling just above the 2p level since August 2016.

This time, if the usual nonsense of “the 3rd break is the keeper” proves correct, above 2.12p computes with 2.9p but to be honest, if positive news is involved (or indeed positive sentiment in internet chatrooms) the share price could easily accelerate to a silly sounding 3.88p, several magnitudes above the current share price. Unfortunately, there is plenty of room for the market to play games, thanks to the price requiring drill below 0.5p to utterly stuff the growth potentials.

If we were to identify a price level which should give early warning of looming trouble, it appears below 0.89 should justify some real concerns.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
11:32:53PM	BRENT	60.77	60.33	60.015	58.81	61.67	62.28	62.73	63.61	60.98	Success
11:34:49PM	GOLD	1464.3									Success
6:45:50PM	FTSE	7342									Success
6:48:13PM	FRANCE	5897									Shambles
6:49:57PM	GERMANY	13232	13163	13130	13068	13250	13294	13323.5	13377	13214	Success
6:52:29PM	NASDAQ	8419.12
6:55:15PM	US500	3144.52
6:58:41PM	DOW	28074.5
7:09:12PM	JAPAN	23320									‘cess

29/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7346 points. Change of -0.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,628,092,745 a change of 28.25%

28/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7416 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,608,679,537 a change of -31.8%

27/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7429 points. Change of 0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,291,535,835 a change of -43.03%

26/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,287,781,943 a change of 67.52%

25/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,544,320,565 a change of 6.78%

22/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 1.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,192,412,665 a change of -5.45%

21/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7238 points. Change of -0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,491,994,018 a change of -12.81%

#FTSE #GOLD As the US rendered homage to turkeys while the UK PM paid homage to a chicken, markets experienced a pretty muted day. However, the Dow Jones remains optimistic and closed before Thanksgiving in useful territory for the near future. Hopefully the rally potentials continue.

For the DOW, now above 28,175 calculates with the potential of an initial 28,315 points. If exceeded, our secondary calculation comes out with 28,430 points. But realistically, this need not be the end of the story thanks to 29,125 points now lazing around in the clouds and claiming it’s a longer term attraction.

All kidding aside, in the event 29,125 ever makes an appearance, there’s a pretty good argument favouring a short position as we’d not be shocked to witness a 1,000 point tumble, once sufficient excuse had been invented to panic the markets. While we’re being cynical, somehow or other this sort of thing actually does happen.

As for the FTSE for FRIDAY, despite the index experiencing a lacklustre Thursday (we suspect, due to the US being closed), the FTSE certainly looks capable of some continued growth. We’ve a couple of small alarm bells ringing thanks to the market showing considerable hesitation exceeding 7,450 points but at present, the near term numbers come out as; Movement above 7,420 calculates with an initial useless ambition of 7,436 points. If exceeded, our secondary is at 7,466.

This scenario shall better the 7,450 level and create a new high (since August) on a Friday, generally not the most suitable day for exuberant behaviour.

If trouble is planned, reversal below 7,385 looks capable of an initial 7,350 points. If broken on any initial surge downward, our longer term secondary is at 7,323 points and hopefully a rebound.

Have a good weekend. It’s the final F1 of the season, probably a boring race as everything is already decided!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:49:32PM	BRENT	63.32	62.52	62.35			63.37	63.55
10:51:33PM	GOLD	1456.3	1452	1444.5			1459	1461
10:57:17PM	FTSE	7412.31	7383	7371			7420	7432			Success
10:59:08PM	FRANCE	5915.7	5898	5887			5919	5925			Success
11:00:54PM	GERMANY	13255.36	13213	13201			13268	13282.5
11:02:37PM	US500	3151.32	3141	3137			3152	3154.5
11:04:33PM	DOW	28118.7	28067	28020			28142	28174
11:13:18PM	NASDAQ	8442.87	8409	8397			8444	8455.5
11:14:54PM	JAPAN	23468	23375	23317.5			23485	23525

 

28/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7416 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,608,679,537 a change of -31.8%

27/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7429 points. Change of 0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,291,535,835 a change of -43.03%

26/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,287,781,943 a change of 67.52%

25/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,544,320,565 a change of 6.78%

22/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 1.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,192,412,665 a change of -5.45%

21/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7238 points. Change of -0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,491,994,018 a change of -12.81%

20/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7262 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,298,819,044 a change of 17.12%

#DAX #FTSE We’re starting to wonder whether the slight, very slight, optimism present against the retail banks may be due to expectations against next months election result in the UK. If this is indeed the case, Royal Bank of Scotland PLC are carefully sticking their tartan bonnet above the parapet at present.

The immediate situation is pretty straightforward as moves above 232p look capable of achieving a near term 240p. In itself, a pretty useless movement but greater interest is aroused, if the price somehow betters 240p. A movement like this will be a solid nod in the right direction, calculating with a secondary target of 250p.

In a ‘back to school’ moment, achieving 250p shall prove important taking the price above the last point the downtrend (Blue from 2009) was defined and thus, officially creating a Higher High. Stumbling into such territory risks truly stirring the pot, from a Big Picture perspective. In fact, we’d strongly suggest shelving celebrations until the share actually closes around the 250p point. A miracle like this will tend promise 282p and beyond for the longer term.

Of course, there’s a reasonable chance this optimism could be dashed, if politicians (or voters) do something exquisitely stupid. In the case of RBS, anything capable of driving the price below 210p is liable to have dire consequences, transporting the price back into a region where 174p is yet again calculating as a probable drop location. Secondary, if broken, remains at 150p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:44:46PM	BRENT	63.1									‘cess
9:47:02PM	GOLD	1454.64
9:50:07PM	FTSE	7430.8	7407	7401	7386	7444	7448	7456	7472	7417	‘cess
9:51:49PM	FRANCE	5928.7									Shambles
9:54:59PM	GERMANY	13307.72	13217	13202	13120	13267	13316	13324	13368	13262	Success
9:57:51PM	US500	3155.52									Success
9:59:41PM	DOW	28179.5
10:03:46PM	NASDAQ	8453.24									Success
10:06:28PM	JAPAN	23584

 

27/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7429 points. Change of 0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,291,535,835 a change of -43.03%

26/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,287,781,943 a change of 67.52%

25/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,544,320,565 a change of 6.78%

22/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 1.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,192,412,665 a change of -5.45%

21/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7238 points. Change of -0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,491,994,018 a change of -12.81%

20/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7262 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,298,819,044 a change of 17.12%

19/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7323 points. Change of 0.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,378,033,826 a change of -0.49%