Trends And Targets

#DOW #DAX While used to diverse visitors worldwide to our #FTSE Friday missive, last week saw a strange surge of visitors from Argentina, sufficient to nudge Reunion Island to the bottom of the international Top 20 sources. The surprise; Argentina has never featured previously but suddenly we’d 15 unique readers in Buenos Aires. Suspect we’d featured in a chatroom!

Optimism for the future of the FTSE is gradually subsiding as the market threatens a dodgy moment, one which gives us an excuse to explain some basic rules we apply to price movements. The chart below is used to highlight something we attach importance to, what happens when a downtrend is exceeded?

Against this particular share, the price bettered 57.34 and immediately surged upward. We’ve circled the movement, one which even shows a little jiggle at the point of trend break, showing the market appeared attach some importance to it. This sort of thing is generally a “safe” signal something useful is about to happen. In this particular instance, it had an initial target of 59.5p, achieved and slightly bettered.

In theory, this gives hope for the future but we’ve circled the trend break of 57.34 to highlight something else. If a share (or index) manages below the point of trend break, following an initial surge, the implication for any immediate growth is really not great. Instead, there’s a strong probability a price is about to mess around, usually between the high achieved following the trend break and the low achieved before the trend break. We’ve absolutely no idea why this should happen but in the case of this particular share, it suggests anything now below 57.34 will doubtless witness the share price oscillate between 55.5 and 59.5 for a while. Obviously, a useful trading range and only when this range is either exceeded or broken dare we believe a new trend is forming.

With the looming general election, we suspect quite a few shares shall be placed in a parking zone until it becomes clear the UK knows what isn’t going to happen next…

The reason we explained the foregoing is twofold. Firstly, ‘cos we’ve nothing interesting to write about the FTSE and secondly, ‘cos the FTSE is in danger of doing exactly the thing we’re warning about. If the market closes below 7280 points, it shall exhibit a very real risk of becoming rangebound for a while until the UK political shambles is resolved. This will mean the market being trapped in the 7140 to 7400 zone for a while.

Near term, the suggestion is of weakness now below 7288 bringing reversal down to an initial 7266 points. If broken, our secondary calculation comes in at a less likely (near term) 7216 points.

There is a surprising, alternate potential for Friday. In the event the index makes it above 7331 points, some recovery to an initial 7359 is possible. If bettered, secondary calculates at 7383 points.

We suspect reversal but on the bright side, despite Brazil not appearing on our list of countries visiting our website, Sao Paulo hosts this weekends Formula 1 race.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:47:04PM	BRENT	61.95	61.71	61.46			62.78	63.32			‘cess
9:48:41PM	GOLD	1471.37	1463	1458.5			1475	1477			‘cess
9:51:23PM	FTSE	7312.39	7282	7255			7343	7354
9:53:57PM	FRANCE	5910.7	5889	5882			5917	5925			Shambles
9:57:04PM	GERMANY	13211.07	13157	13109			13273	13292
10:13:57PM	US500	3098.52	3082	3076			3099	3103
10:29:04PM	DOW	27788	27669	27625.5			27840	27874
10:31:00PM	NASDAQ	8263.5	8226	8206			8266	8279.5			Shambles
10:32:45PM	JAPAN	23152	23004	22940			23199	23248.5			‘cess

 

14/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7292 points. Change of -0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,690,954 a change of -2.01%

13/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7351 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,219,099 a change of -6.91%

12/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7365 points. Change of 0.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,738,598,465 a change of -2.15%

11/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7328 points. Change of -0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,864,681,253 a change of 22.23%

8/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7359 points. Change of -0.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,798,106,379 a change of -22.57%

7/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7406 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,615,818 a change of 30.74%

6/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,739,678,595 a change of -23.11%

 

#brent #Nasdaq When we last covered #Tesco, we’d a requirement the share price actually close above 244p to fulfill the first criteria for upward fireworks. In an almost spiteful movement, the price closed at 245 in October and since then, nothing but pain in the bread aisle…

Presently trading around the 232p mark, Tesco’ share price looks set on reversal to an initial 223p. In itself, not a particularly threatening concept but if broken, secondary calculates at 207p and should be capable of bonking against the uptrend since 2016. Ideally, this should provoke some sort of rebound. However, it’s worth looking hard at the chart as there are significant dangers should the 207p level break.

Obviously, it breaks a major uptrend but worse, the price achieves a “lower low”, propelling itself into a region where continued reversal to 193 looks very possible. At such a level, we’d need revisit the numbers, thanks to the Big Picture painting some truly dramatic reversal potentials.

Allegedly, the price NOW need only close above 243p to better the immediate downtrend but thanks to moves in October, we’re inclined to widen our parameters, suggesting only above 248p should now make growth to an initial 257 make sense. If exceeded, secondary is a promising (for the long term) 273p.

For now, we suggest it worth keeping an eye on if 207p makes an appearance. At such a level, we’d suspect it shall not prove a turkey!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:00:35PM	BRENT	62.2	61	60.585	59.95	62.09	62.32	62.705	63.32	61.23	Success
10:03:31PM	GOLD	1464.14									‘cess
10:06:27PM	FTSE	7347.08									‘cess
10:08:37PM	FRANCE	5909.7									Success
10:11:20PM	GERMANY	13260.82									‘cess
10:19:03PM	US500	3096.97									‘cess
10:26:17PM	DOW	27808.3									‘cess
10:37:03PM	NASDAQ	8262.97	8215	8182.5	8145	8269	8275	8296	8324	8215	Shambles
10:40:10PM	JAPAN	23320									‘cess

13/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7351 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,219,099 a change of -6.91%

12/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7365 points. Change of 0.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,738,598,465 a change of -2.15%

11/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7328 points. Change of -0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,864,681,253 a change of 22.23%

8/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7359 points. Change of -0.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,798,106,379 a change of -22.57%

7/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7406 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,615,818 a change of 30.74%

6/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,739,678,595 a change of -23.11%

5/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7388 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,164,114,046 a change of 25.79%

#DAX #CAC40 As we ‘enjoy’ the first snows of winter here in Argyll, thoughts turn to the building industry and a share which is supposed to be going up. Since 2015, Taylor Wimpey has stagnated, albeit sometimes with a useful trading range. Unlike my wifes conversation last night, price moves are about as interesting as a discussion about roof trusses.

Like most couples who’ve been married too long, we’ve absurd games to irritate the other. One is ‘The Word’, when hearing a word not commonly used and spending the rest of the day taking turns to fit it into conversation, regardless how mangled the original word gets. (Hey, we follow share prices, did you think we’ve an interesting life?)

Yesterdays unexpected word was ‘Karma’, prompting conversations about Chicken Karma, VW KarmaGhia, that Boy George song about a lizard, etc. Finally, a new low was achieved with mention of Frances spectacular La Camargue, neatly mispronounced as The Karmargue.

Once Asian markets had opened, it was bedtime. A sleepy voice said “Karma Sutra, I win.”

It’s worth taking a step back to visually ascertain “the problem” and in the case of Taylor Wimpey, there’s clearly an issue around the 2 quid level, 212p to be precise. Whether we call it a Glass Ceiling or a Horizontal Trend, the market appears to find something really offensive about the 212p level. Bizarrely, this chain of events started in December 2007 and creates a situation where “the Big Picture” suggests closure above 212p should trigger a longer term cycle which leads to an initial 308p. If bettered, our secondary calculation is at 410p.

Perhaps the strength of this potential is also why the market is refusing to let the share close in “safe” territory!

Near term, we shall be interested if TW manages above 178p as growth to an initial 188p looks possible. If bettered, secondary is at 198p. Importantly, above 198p will tend suggest another stab at the Glass Ceiling of 212p.

Unfortunately, that’s the end of the good news. More likely, we should fear weakness below 143p as this is liable to trigger reversal to an initial 134p. This, unfortunately, breaks the uptrend since 2011 and as a result, if 134p breaks, “bottom” is liable to make itself known by 93p hopefully.

We also need to mention 18p as “ultimate bottom” if politicians get their way and trash the countries economy.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:50:27PM	BRENT	61.72
9:51:42PM	GOLD	1457.04
9:53:48PM	FTSE	7357.56									‘cess
10:15:40PM	FRANCE	5915.5	5897	5888.5	5874	5924	5933	5942	5969	5905	Success
10:18:34PM	GERMANY	13272	13185	13163	13115	13254	13288	13316	13384	13211	Success
10:20:39PM	US500	3091.57									Success
10:22:29PM	DOW	27694									‘cess
10:24:29PM	NASDAQ	8265.27									Success
10:27:06PM	JAPAN	23478									Success

 

12/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7365 points. Change of 0.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,738,598,465 a change of -2.15%

11/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7328 points. Change of -0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,864,681,253 a change of 22.23%

8/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7359 points. Change of -0.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,798,106,379 a change of -22.57%

7/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7406 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,615,818 a change of 30.74%

6/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,739,678,595 a change of -23.11%

5/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7388 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,164,114,046 a change of 25.79%

4/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7369 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,900,286,853 a change of -8.27%

 

#Gold #DOW Sometimes, we feel guilty moaning about Politics & Brexit when supposed to be writing about shares. But Wetherspoon managed to take things to a new level, the company warned by shareholders to stop talking about Brexit. Our colours are firmly nailed to the mast, due to three characters from Wizard of Oz apparently competing for our votes.

Presently trading around the 15 quid mark, Wetherspoon share price need only close a session above 1615p and we suspect it shall enter a brave new world with interesting potentials. We can calculate a path commencing to 1804p but, to be completely fair, the share price shall find itself in a region where “top” cannot be calculated. As it’s one of the few organisations thriving, going against the trend in a market sector which is pretty foul presently, price movements will be fascinating to watch IF the trigger criteria is achieved.

For now, we’re not terribly confident as the share has broken through this years uptrend. Despite recent gains, we’d be worried should it break below 1445p as reversal down to an initial 1293p makes sense. If broken, secondary calculates at 1178p, essentially meeting the uptrend since 2016 and the Brexit vote. Rather fitting, given JDW’s Beermats & Brexit drama.

There’s a fairly serious issue, should 1178p break as “bottom” becomes 935p!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:51:21PM	BRENT	61.93									Shambles
9:53:30PM	GOLD	1456	1447	1442	1428	1468	1468	1475.5	1485	1448	‘cess
9:58:02PM	FTSE	7345									Success
9:59:40PM	FRANCE	5901.9
10:01:46PM	GERMANY	13230.59									‘cess
10:03:17PM	US500	3089.52
10:06:47PM	DOW	27705	27504	27450.5	27363	27610	27713	27773.5	27838	27570	‘cess
10:12:30PM	NASDAQ	8248.12
10:14:06PM	JAPAN	23362

 

 

11/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7328 points. Change of -0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,864,681,253 a change of 22.23%

8/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7359 points. Change of -0.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,798,106,379 a change of -22.57%

7/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7406 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,615,818 a change of 30.74%

6/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,739,678,595 a change of -23.11%

5/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7388 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,164,114,046 a change of 25.79%

4/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7369 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,900,286,853 a change of -8.27%

1/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.75%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,127,869 a change of -12.99%

 

#Brent #DAX Easily overlooked when thinking about shares, Legal & General actually have an interesting history. We’ve an anecdote from 2009 when commenting it was a worthwhile buy above 80p. A friend, pretending not to listen, immediately rushed away and bought 80 shares! Thankfully it worked out for her and she’s still got them, wishing she’d instead bought 8,000. Or even 800…

She paid 75p per share, making our lives a misery during 2010, each time “her investment” dipped slightly.

For the last few years, the price has alternated between boring and death defying, thanks to that dip the day after the Brexit vote. Quite a curious situation now exists where there appears a chance the price shall attempt a new trading range. Key will be movement above 295p.

(Elaine, if you are reading this, IT IS NOT 295 shares but a trigger above the 295p mark.)

Above 295p should prove capable of growth to an initial 331p. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at a longer term 393p.

Of course, there’s a however, one which feels unlikely.

Now below 230p risks trouble, thanks to the price movement in August 2019 which proved the share price could break the Red uptrend since the market crash. Any further weakness below this “danger sign” level risks reversal to an initial 153p. If broken, secondary calculates at a bottom (ideally) of 118p along with a reasonable bounce.

If anyone is curious, there’s 2 different uptrends shown. One paints the days closing prices (Red), the other measures the Day Lows (Grey). In August, the market dip broke both trend lines, hence our concern.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
1:00:07PM	BRENT	62.42	61.13	60.22	59.25	62.17	61.98	62.765	63.55	61.18	Success
1:17:00PM	GOLD	1459.3									‘cess
1:26:37PM	FTSE	7380.83									Success
1:34:51PM	FRANCE	5901									Sorry
1:36:36PM	GERMANY	13255	13195	13178.5	13137	13267	13279	13302.5	13338	13235
1:38:15PM	US500	3092.17
1:40:00PM	DOW	27675
1:41:38PM	NASDAQ	8251.87
1:43:38PM	JAPAN	23480

8/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7359 points. Change of -0.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,798,106,379 a change of -22.57%

7/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7406 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,615,818 a change of 30.74%

6/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,739,678,595 a change of -23.11%

5/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7388 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,164,114,046 a change of 25.79%

4/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7369 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,900,286,853 a change of -8.27%

1/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.75%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,127,869 a change of -12.99%

31/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7248 points. Change of -1.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,139,753,782 a change of 11.95%

#GOLD #DOW The UK market has spent November limping ever higher, but trailing behind other European and US index’. The slow pace, doubtless, is due to nerves over the Election, Brexit, and what ‘vote greedy’ politicians may say next to enhance their exposure. There are slight signs of an imminent slowdown on the FTSE and we suspect Friday may show some reversal.

At present, the key number on the FTSE is at 7285 points. This is the level the market needs fall below to force us to take reversal seriously. Unless this number is broken, anything soon is liable to be simply part of a trading range. The other key number is at 7440 points.

Above this level, the market betters the highs of July, and enters a cycle where growth to 7494 becomes a near certainty. Secondary calculates at a longer term 7654 points and visually shall challenge the downtrend since the peak achieved in May 2018.

Near term, it looks probable Friday should relax (we’ve a caveat!) and for safety sake, allocating 7384 as a trigger level makes sense. The caveat is quite silly – on far too many occasions recently, when the FTSE illustrates a drop dead argument of direction, the market has toddled off in the opposite direction. To play safe, we’ve opted for a fairly wide trigger level. Below 7384 suggests weakness to an initial 7373 points. If broken, secondary is at 7330 points.

The UK market needs better 7422 before we take any rise seriously as it should permit near term movement up to an initial useless 7429 points. If bettered, secondary calculates at 7439 points – marginally below the Big Picture trigger level of 7440 points.

Have a good weekend.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:18:36PM	BRENT	62.09
10:22:31PM	GOLD	1469.09	1460	1456	1442.22	1476	1492	1502	1516	1479	Success
10:24:10PM	FTSE	7406.91
10:28:40PM	FRANCE	5877.9									Success
10:31:56PM	GERMANY	13284
10:34:51PM	US500	3086.77									‘cess
10:38:21PM	DOW	27715	27580	27474	27354	27758	27780	27899	28343	27406	‘cess
10:41:27PM	NASDAQ	8223.5									Success
10:44:12PM	JAPAN	23555									Success

 

 

7/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7406 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,615,818 a change of 30.74%

6/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,739,678,595 a change of -23.11%

5/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7388 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,164,114,046 a change of 25.79%

4/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7369 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,900,286,853 a change of -8.27%

1/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.75%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,127,869 a change of -12.99%

31/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7248 points. Change of -1.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,139,753,782 a change of 11.95%

30/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7330 points. Change of 0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,484,235,986 a change of 6.15%