Trends And Targets

#SP500 #DAX Our last in-depth look at Sirius was back in February at 20p (link here) and it has been getting seriously close to our 13p target. Interestingly, since their Open Offer deal, a few pundits are suggesting the share price is now undervalued, even proposing some interesting rise potentials. So, is it at bottom?

To be honest, we’re not sure. The price is certainly hovering at the 15p level, giving an indication a “floor” has been found. With our distrust of the way in which the market treats investors, we’d be uncomfortable suggesting it’s at bottom, if only due to the price floundering around in “lower low” territory. There can be little doubt trades now below 14.95p should provoke reversal to 13p and visually a bounce.

Consider this. If the price were somehow to close below 13p, actual bottom should prove to be at around 4p!

The folk who believe in chart patterns should not be confused with those who follow horoscopes or technical indicators. Quite often, a complex sounding chart pattern is simply describing a logical mental process. The current one potentially effecting SXX is circled in RED on the chart. The first peak is the “Hey, I don’t think it will get higher, I’m taking profit” sentiment. The second peak echoes the initial one. And the third peak is fairly simple; “It’s had a good run, don’t trust it now, I’m out of here”.

At this point, another force takes over; “Ooops, it has broken the immediate uptrend again. Think I’ll just wait and see.”

And before you know it, you’ve got a classic Head & Shoulders formation, one which points at reversal to 4p eventually. Essentially, it’s entirely based on how a trader will view price movements, along with the emotional cycle. More often than not, it works out, even if you have to squint a bit to recognise the chart pattern.

Our own thinking is of reversal coming to 13p anytime soon, along with a bounce at such a point. The RED uptrend dates back to 2010 and should prove perfectly capable for traders to pile in, with the belief such a long term uptrend must provoke a rebound.

At present, any rebound exceeding 22p should bring a visit to an initial 25.5p. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 35p in the future. In fact, we can even compute a best case scenario at 46p, a point where we’d again stir the tea leaves.

For now, it feels like 13p shall prove worth watching for.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:33:06PM	BRENT	68.18									Success
10:34:48PM	GOLD	1280.47
10:38:02PM	FTSE	7187.2									Success
10:40:04PM	FRANCE	5234.5									Success
10:48:57PM	GERMANY	11856.68	11809	11774	11658	11930	11961	11988.5	12049	11846	Success
10:55:07PM	US500	2780.02	2765	2747	2732	2805	2806	2817.5	2835	2778	Success
11:01:20PM	DOW	25105									Success
11:03:48PM	NASDAQ	7208.92									Success
11:05:23PM	JAPAN	20897									Success

 

29/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7185 points. Change of -1.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,494,839,915 a change of -51.63%

28/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7268 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,358,899,271 a change of 108.69%

Galliford Try #Gold #SP500 The often confused “we want to buy you, then you want to buy us” events surrounding Galliford Try and Bovis appear to be concluded for now. We last reviewed Galliford in February last year, when the price was 800p. Our initial drop potential was 696p – achieved – with secondary (when broken) at 308p. Any changes?

We’ve a slight suspicion Bovis may have dodged a bullet here as the share price is trading below its last ditch uptrend since 2010. There are a couple of important thoughts pertaining to its current position. Weakness now below 499p looks capable of entering a cycle down to 431p initially. We’d hope for a bounce at such a level but if broken, secondary calculates at 265p.

Rather worse is the calculation of the share price now trading in a region where “ultimate” bottom (the level we cannot calculate below) is at 39p. Obviously, this is the sort of ridiculous drop which usually requires some really grotty news issued.

At present, the share requires better 850p, just to signal the immediate pace of descent has eased. Such a miracle allows recovery to an initial 1079p. If bettered, secondary is at a longer term 1385p.

For now, it appears dangerous but perhaps worth watching for 265p making an appearance at some point.  After all, folk will look at the lows of 2009 and 2010 and judge, for this reason alone, a bounce can be expected.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:48:18PM	BRENT	68.8									‘cess
10:50:23PM	GOLD	1279.5	1276	1273	1270	1281	1285	1288	1292	1278	‘cess
11:00:52PM	FTSE	7248.41
11:03:00PM	FRANCE	5285.2									‘cess
11:04:48PM	GERMANY	11982									‘cess
11:06:32PM	US500	2802.12	2799	2786	2768	2827	2840	2850	2867	2819	Success
11:08:43PM	DOW	25353									Shambles
11:10:24PM	NASDAQ	7282.65
11:12:13PM	JAPAN	20989									Shambles

28/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7268 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,358,899,271 a change of 108.69%

24/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7277 points. Change of 0.64%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,443,076,043 a change of -8.12%

Barclays, #Brent, #DAX Our previous review of Barclays (link here) had a pretty miserable expectation, should the share price break below our drop target. Unfortunately, this has now happened and there’s the slimmest of margins inhibiting it opening the gates of gloom. The problem number is currently 148.82p.

Absolutely nothing to do with Barclays. Google News algorithms can be odd!

In the event Barclays closes a session below 148.823p, we’re looking for traffic down to an initial 136p. To be blunt, if it even trades below 147p, it shall be viewed as entering this reversal cycle. Our secondary, if 136p breaks, calculates at 114p. It’s rather worrying to note, we’ve two quite distinct arguments suggesting Barclays share price intends take a visit down to the 114p level eventually. About the only encouraging signal left is fairly simple. The share has NOT yet closed below the RED uptrend since 2009, hence our fascination with 148.823p. However, the share price has broken below this trend during the last two sessions, so we’d be far from confident the trend line shall hold.

There’s obviously the risk of the somewhat confused series of political results from the EU election entering the fray, if any of the mainstream politicians actually can decide what they stand for. At present, Barclays requires exceed 165p to convince us it has exited the drop zone to 136p eventually. Visually, there’s quite a strong suggestion the price will head to 136p, execute some sort of short lived bounce, then eventually wander downward to 114p.

It needs exceed 166p to signal our misery is misplaced, allowing recovery to an initial 174p. If bettered, secondary is at 191p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:10:58PM	BRENT	68.85	67.27	66.57	65.76	68.7	69.05	69.335	70.38	67.4
10:12:57PM	GOLD	1285.53
10:29:38PM	FTSE	7287.92
10:31:37PM	FRANCE	5338
10:38:08PM	GERMANY	12067.52	12014	11974.5	11925	12088	12123	12162.5	12242	12024
10:40:32PM	US500	2830.47
10:46:12PM	DOW	25648
10:51:32PM	NASDAQ	7311.49
10:53:37PM	JAPAN	21212

24/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7277 points. Change of 0.64%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,443,076,043 a change of -8.12%

#Gold #SP500 As we live through the final days of a failed political career, it’s easy to imagine the abrupt downward surge on the FTSE was a direct result of the UK’s “Strong and Stable (aka, Weak and Shoogly)” governance. We’re fairly confident drops experienced on Thursday had nothing to do with the Prime Minister.

It all goes back to a market movement, worldwide, on Wednesday. Sharp eyed readers viewing our evening UK Futures noted we used the word “Shambles” to describe the previous days results. Our preference, obviously, is to use “Success” or ” ‘cess”, denoting whether one or two targets were achieved. We only employ “Shambles” when market behaviour makes absolutely no sense. Only once the day was over and tempers calmed did we start to suspect what had happened.

At 13:26 on Wednesday, a whole bunch of indices both in Europe and the USA dropped, for a couple of seconds, below levels we’d designed as key trigger levels to open SHORT positions. Once these short positions triggered, the indices immediately reversed direction, spending the following 90 minutes climbing above logical Stop Loss levels for each and every one of the SHORT positions.

Thus, the trades would be cancelled and traders left out of pocket. A co-ordinated effort, internationally, reminded us sharply why we avoid comment on Forex unless from a Big Picture perspective. This sort of market behaviour, in our opinion, is rather lacking in ethics. The following private note was included on Wednesday evening for our clients;

“With shares, I tend regard this as a clear warning signal for a coming drop with the market opting to trigger a bunch of trades with attractive stop loss levels. This essentially clears out the folk who were poised to take advantage of coming reversals.”

Markets dropped sharply on Thursday, as feared. But behaviour on Wednesday was clearly designed to wipe out SHORT positions, prior to the drop!

Our tantrum over, what’s next?

The FTSE actually dropped further than we’d like. It closed Thursday at 7230 points and now lurks with the threat of weakness below 7210 bringing travel down to 7160 points next. Our secondary, should 7156 break, calculates at 7091 points.

If triggered, the tightest stop level looks like 7270 points. But given market behaviour as listed previously, we’d prefer wider still at 7301 points.

We’ve an obvious disparity between a drop target 7160 and trigger level of 7156. This is fairly simple, due to the FTSE being manipulated (gapped) downward by 14 points at the open on Thursday morning. Essentially, this nonsense confuses our software.

What happens if the FTSE exceeds 7270 points? Initially we’re looking for 7300 points. Our secondary, if such a point exceeded, calculates at 7375 points. If triggered, the tightest stop is at 7210 points.

Perhaps it is also worth mentioning the index (somehow) remains above the 2019 Red uptrend on the chart below. We’re far from comfortable this state of affairs shall continue.

On a brighter note, it’s the Monaco GP this weekend, possibly the most boring race on the F1 calendar yet one which makes compulsive viewing in the hope something happens. Have a good weekend.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:25:51PM	BRENT	67.02									Success
10:28:00PM	GOLD	1284	1272.82	1270.5	1265	1279	1287.25	1291	1298	1279	Success
10:31:18PM	FTSE	7233.72									Success
10:33:56PM	FRANCE	5284.7									Success
10:37:14PM	GERMANY	11948									‘cess
10:39:15PM	US500	2821.12	2810	2800.5	2770	2835	2845	2850.5	2866	2822	Success
10:43:26PM	DOW	25485.8									Success
10:45:47PM	NASDAQ	7308.12									Success
10:48:17PM	JAPAN	20874									Success

23/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7231 points. Change of -1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,924,231,411 a change of -15.02%

RBS #SP500 #NK225 In our monthly visit to “The Bank that likes to say ‘Doh!’ “, the star of the clown sector of the FTSE has performed pretty much as expected. Our prior report (link here) was notable in lacking any confidence for an immediate share price recovery and now, we require to examine what the break of our initial target risks?

With the share price breaking below 219.5p, it enhances the probability of any near term bounce being short lived. When we review the immediate downtrend, the demand is for anything above 228 apparently suggesting the speed of descent has eased, allowing recovery to an initial 235p. This, while fairly useful, unfortunately ensures the share price remains in the drop zone with 202p offering the chance of a probable “real” bottom.

Only above 238 shall we start taking any recovery seriously as this will trash the immediate drop prospects and take the share into a region where 248 presents a target.

For now, below 216 still suggests 202p as providing a “bottom” but secondary, if broken, comes along at 177p eventually.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:23:28PM	BRENT	70.09									Success
9:25:30PM	GOLD	1273.82
9:47:24PM	FTSE	7321.61									Shambles
9:49:02PM	FRANCE	5368.7
9:55:30PM	GERMANY	12149.72									Shambles
9:58:55PM	US500	2855.82	2845	2836	2824	2865	2867	2872.5	2881	2850
10:00:59PM	DOW	25776
10:09:44PM	NASDAQ	7416.22									Shambles
10:11:40PM	JAPAN	21226	21190	21156.5	21075	21313	21359	21412	21486	21242

22/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7334 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,971,356,122 a change of 24.95%

Lloyds Bank #Cac40 #Nasdaq UK Bank share prices continue to adhere to the Elephant sex joke. If you’re successful, it takes 18 months for anything to happen. If unsuccessful, get trampled to death. When we last reviewed Lloyds, we speculated it was probably about to get stuck in a trading range between 57.5 and 63p. Guess what?

In the period since our last analysis, the share broke our 63p trigger level, hit our initial 60p target (crucially breaking it on the first downward surge) and despite a low of 59.2p, Lloyds remains with the threat of a bottom around the 57.5p level. But it’s proving painfully slow but is probably presenting a safe trading target, regardless of whether opting for a Long or Short position. Regardless of choice, entering around the midway level in the 60p area, then waiting a while to take some profit, looks a viable strategy. For a Long position, a stop can be emplaced around 56p, for a Short position, a stop looks like 64p. As the chart shows, the difficult part of any trade looks like patience.

We’re actually (a bit) surprised it hasn’t hit the 57.5p level yet but for some reason, banking shares appear attuned to whatever Brexit music is playing politically. If this is indeed the case, the big picture presently suggests 41p is exerting a long term attraction eventually, doubtless requiring the correct level of political incompetence to sufficiently damage the share price. Indeed, if the political will exists to really trash Lloyds share price, “ultimate bottom” now calculates down at 26p.

If we opt to assume the worst for the near term, apparently weakness on Lloyds now below 59.2p should drive the share back to 57.5p initially. We’d hope for a rebound at such a level but we must admit, we can now calculate a secondary at 56p.

Should we attempt a positive stance, the price requires better 65.3p to confirm a rise is possible, this triggering potential movement to 68p initially with secondary, if bettered, at a game changing 77p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:50:16PM	BRENT	71.42
9:52:59PM	GOLD	1274.91
9:55:06PM	FTSE	7355.8									‘cess
9:57:33PM	FRANCE	5387	5345	5330	5306	5380	5403	5427	5459	5348
10:01:01PM	GERMANY	12160.94									Success
10:03:16PM	US500	2865.17
10:06:02PM	DOW	25881									‘cess
10:08:29PM	NASDAQ	7456.54	7387	7362.5	7325	7456	7475	7509.5	7563	7412
10:11:21PM	JAPAN	21365									‘cess

21/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7328 points. Change of 0.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,579,496,230 a change of 2.76%

Ford #Gold #SP500 It’s not often we have to warn a report may contain ‘spite’ but Ford, announcing 7,000 job cuts, reminded of another reason we utterly despise the company and their products. The problem was a car purchased for the dogs as our usually wet and muddy Golden Retrievers tend trash a vehicle interior. We bought a Ford C-Max as a worthy pooch transport.

Cumulatively, the thing managed remain roadworthy for just 2 out of 8 months, a series of electronic problems tending ensure it never could be trusted to complete a journey. Even dealerships admitted bewilderment, when C-Max electronics decide to play games. We gave up and sold the thing with Ford finally winning the accolade for a real dog of a car. It will be the only Ford ever purchased, such was the level of trouble. We wonder, in this day and age, how could a car maker fail to implement reliable electronics, given Japan have been doing it since the 1980’s? (However, it was nice seeing it report 72mpg at motorway speeds!)

Thus, our approach to the company share price is tinged with distaste but to be fair, there’s quite a lot to dislike. Despite strong recovery since the trauma of 2009, the share price faltered and is now presenting a distinctly dodgy picture. The big problem is the Red line on the chart, currently around 8.1 dollars. Weakness below this level looks capable of driving the price down to 6.29 next. While a bounce from 6.29 is possible, in the absence of a miracle we’d suspect it short lived as secondary, should 6.29 break, is down at 1 dollar. Visually this will represent a return to match the lows of the market crash!

To get out of trouble as we already suspect 6.29 shall appear, the price requires better 11.75 as this should trigger some recovery to an initial 13.25. The chart tends suggest, should such a level be attained, some hesitation can be expected as it appears a glass ceiling awaits. Only with closure above 13.25 dare we accept a secondary longer term calculation of  16.80.

For now, similar to our gladly unmissed Ford C-Max, we distrust the company share price but shall take an interest should it achieve the 6.29 level. And who knows, if the 1 dollar mark ever appears, considering buying Ford would not be out of the question!

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:49:34PM	BRENT	71.54
10:52:15PM	GOLD	1278.38	1273	1268	1263.5	1279	1279	1283	1291	1274	‘cess
10:54:52PM	FTSE	7313									‘cess
10:57:31PM	FRANCE	5358.5									Success
11:00:26PM	GERMANY	12057.18									Success
11:03:05PM	US500	2848.38	2838	2830.5	2810	2855	2872	2880	2887	2853	‘cess
11:06:17PM	DOW	25744									‘cess
11:09:13PM	NASDAQ	7400									Success
11:12:07PM	JAPAN	21176									‘cess

20/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7310 points. Change of -0.52%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,429,558,447 a change of -17.82%