Trends And Targets

Lloyds Bank (LSE:LLOY) Trigger levels often prove important, none more so than the one we gave for Lloyds three weeks ago. All we demanded was the share price exceed 40.6p to “prove” bottom and provoke some reasonable acceleration. Despite FTSE flamboyance, the bank only achieved 40p as a high in the intervening period. Perhaps it’s on a stock market version of Santa’s naughty list!

How are things now looking?

 

Our movement trigger has changed in the intervening period, just not impressively. It now asks the share price exceed 41.49p before we dare be convinced some proper price recovery is commencing, this calculating with the potential of movement to an initial 46.5p with secondary, if exceeded, at 50.5p. Given the share is trading at 36.75 at time of writing, this does not suggest a truly impressive recovery tier, quite the opposite.

Some marginal hope is being taken from the position of our “if it all goes wrong” price level. We’d calculated the share needed break below 31.7p to promote the idea of running for the hills. Thankfully, the lowest achieved in the period was 32p, above our panic level and tending confirm we’ve been watching the correct trend. This danger level can now be adjusted down to 31.2p as weakness below such a point looks capable of triggering reversal, again, down to 27.25p and hopefully a rebound. The chart certainly gives such an impression.

For now, we remain optimistic, suspecting the price ‘only’ needs a slight change in market sentiment to move fast.

 

We’ve one more report on Wednesday (the FTSE obviously) until we return next Tuesday, 5th January. One of the (often rare) joys of living in Scotland is 1st & 2nd January are public holidays, embraced quite seriously with the result this coming Monday is a public holiday – aka taking down all the Xmas decoration and hosting a family day in the countryside.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:31:26PM	BRENT	51.48	50.8	50.325	49.75	51.6	51.68	51.89	52.25	50.92
9:33:02PM	GOLD	1878	1871	1865	1853	1883	1886	1892	1904	1876
9:57:10PM	FTSE	6591	6551	6516	6461	6606	6681	6702.5	6759	6595	Success
10:09:03PM	FRANCE	5587.5	5577	5560	5538	5602	5602	5613.75	5659	5577	‘cess
10:12:07PM	GERMANY	13723	13688	13632	13578	13782	13867	13990	14024	13768	‘cess
10:14:47PM	US500	3731.62	3725	3718.5	3706	3743	3756	3781.25	3807	3733	‘cess
10:17:10PM	DOW	30371	30321	30272.5	30163	30469	30602	30745	31187	30401	Shambles
10:21:28PM	JAPAN	27520	no idea				27702	27821	27974	27455	Success

 

29/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6602 points. Change of 1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,771,921,591 a change of 150.04%

28/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6502 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 1,908,434,539 a change of -53.69%

23/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6495 points. Change of 0.65%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,121,226,334 a change of -11.88%

22/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6453 points. Change of 19.66%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,676,737,915 a change of -29%

21/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 5393 points. Change of -17.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,586,656,478 a change of -30.25%

18/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6529 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,442,789,780 a change of 0%

17/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6551 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,439,357,090 a change of 0%

#Brent #CAC40  Obviously, for this Xmas, the driving subject was Cat Pee. Our dining room, usually only opened for dinner between 8pm and 9pm (or so), had been open thanks to innumerable grandchildren (just 2 of them) treating it as a rehearsal studio, dressing room, or adult free space. It’s one of these peculiar rooms which is prized and mostly unused except for an evening meal. Except one of our unwanted cats decided it can now be used as a toilet.

Christmas day started by shampooing the dining room carpet, the shampoo mixed with peppermint. The internet claims cats dislike peppermint, giving a vague hope of avoiding a repeat performance.  Amazingly, the cat stink revealed something hitherto unknown in the household. Four, out of FOUR, females could not smell the abhorrent stink. Perhaps they were exhibiting early signs of Covid-19, perhaps they were avoiding shampooing the carpet.

 

The above rant has quite a lot to do with the stock market. Amongst market analysts, there appears quite a bit of optimism for 2021, based on reliance for “The Vaccine”. This reliance is generating an assumption soon, everything shall return to the way it was before Covid-19 hit. Who knows, perhaps things shall be even better!

Goodness knows, of course we all want things to return to normal but, like the female nose and cat pee, market analysts seem to be missing something quite important. (I should point out, my own sense of smell is such that I cannot exist in the same room as strong perfume or potpourri)

During 2020, very many businesses failed to trade at normal levels. Instead, there has been chaotic disruption of income levels, giving an expectation many companies shall cough politely and announce reduced dividend payments in 2021. This sort of thing generally justifies some hysterics with share prices but there’s a greater issue, one being glossed over currently.

“Profit Warnings” tend produce quite nasty share price movements, on average a drop of 21% in the share price on the day the warning was issued. The majority of Profit Warnings are generated, due to shortfalls in sales and the worst share price drops come from companies who previously issued a warning.

The big thing about Profit Warnings is the time of year they are issued. Historically, the majority occur in Q1, the first trading quarter of the year. Q2 will generally host a slightly lesser bunch. And with the example of A G Barr below, bad news can emerge in Q3 too.

If we are to experience a bunch a Profit Warnings, bursting the bubble of optimism produced by the Covid-19 vaccine, when is it liable to occur and how bad could it be for the FTSE?

 

Our suspicion demands a critical mass of trouble, causing a loss of confidence as traders wonder which company shall be next to announce sales plunged during 2020. Perhaps by the end of March, perhaps during May and if we adhere to average drop philosophy, a market reversal above 21% is expected. If current levels of optimism are maintained, ‘maybe’ the FTSE shall experience a bottom around 5,200 points but our own software keeps suggesting an eventual bottom around 4,400 points.

Something worth remembering, if a Tsunami of bad news provokes market reversals, the rebound is liable to be strong, hopefully occurring in an environment where all the bad news is finally out of the way, people are getting immunized, business is indeed returning to normal, and of course, summer will be coming and folk cheer up. More importantly, there will be a strong possibility those market sectors currently floundering shall be ones experiencing stronger recovery. The banking sector immediately springs to mind but equally food and drink retail should not be ignored.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop
9:22:31PM	BRENT	50.99	50.6	49.975	49.28	51.78	51.64	52.095	53.05	50.6
9:26:08PM	GOLD	1873.73								1881
9:28:07PM	FTSE	6548								6502
9:29:57PM	FRANCE	5580	5546	5527.5	5503	5590	5600	5612.75	5658	5571
9:34:40PM	GERMANY	13786								13655
9:36:17PM	US500	3739								3722
9:38:29PM	DOW	30376								30337
9:40:04PM	NASDAQ	12846								12733
9:43:31PM	JAPAN	26943								26848

28/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6502 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 1,908,434,539 a change of -53.69%

23/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6495 points. Change of 0.65%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,121,226,334 a change of -11.88%

22/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6453 points. Change of 19.66%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,676,737,915 a change of -29%

21/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 5393 points. Change of -17.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,586,656,478 a change of -30.25%

18/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6529 points. Change of -0.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,442,789,780 a change of 73.6%

17/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6551 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,439,357,090 a change of 0%

16/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6570 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,834,302,099 a change of 0%

#Gold #Dow After surviving our pre-Xmas Faux Xmas day… we slide into Thursday secure in the knowledge it’s a half hearted day on the FTSE. Similar to an adult on Christmas Morning, there will be necessary activity in the first few minutes of the session, a period of extended lethargy, then flat panic movement in the last minutes of the morning as the market tries to pretend it was awake all along.

Maybe this year shall be different. We’re all trying to conceal coughs, we’re all pretending the freight backlog shall vanish, and who pays attention to the UK’s daily death rate anyway. The 60 countries banning travel from the UK must simply be courting publicity. It’s Christmas and we only need think happy thoughts and everything negative shall go away. Hopefully, at least until the market starts trading properly again around the middle of January!

 

This year, more than any in memory, we’ll be glad for the break and time to regroup mentally. Clients are aware we’ve a strong logical reason to expect a severe market correction in 2021, something we intend flesh out in our final article for the year next week.

 

As for Friday Thursday, for many folk, the final day of trading in 2020, the UK index is almost primed for some positive action, only needing exceed 6,510 points to make travel to an initial 6,542 appear very possible. If exceeded, our secondary calculation comes in at a more alluring 6,599 points. Visually, this will provide an excellent level to park for Xmas, matching the previous highs of December without appearing to do anything dramatic.

If triggered, it looks like 6,449 will prove the tightest “safe” stop loss level.

 

The alternate scenario must deal with the consequences, if 6,449 points breaks?

Travel below such a level suggests coming weakness to an initial 6,433 with secondary, if broken, a rather more interesting 6397 points. It’s interesting thanks to the calculation matching the bottom achieved on Monday, strongly hinting at a bounce if such a level appears.

 

For now, thanks for reading our often un-proof-read articles. Enjoy the festive season. Here in our bit of Scotland, the temperature has dropped below freezing, the grass and cars are white with frost, and there’s a glass of dark rum calling my name!

 

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	PriorFUTURES
10:26:17PM	BRENT	51.22	50.06	49.88	49.3	50.74	51.62	51.8575	52.23	50.6	‘cess
10:28:02PM	GOLD	1873.23	1855	1836.5	1813	1877	1878	1881.5	1890	1866
10:29:58PM	FTSE	6518.29	6425	6413.5	6377	6478	6524	6545.5	6624	6463	Success
10:31:49PM	FRANCE	5531	5483	5478	5456	5511	5544	5556.75	5594	5500	Success
10:34:01PM	GERMANY	13609	13467	13406.5	13334	13534	13624	13661.5	13750	13531	‘cess
10:35:53PM	US500	3693	3676	3668	3654	3699	3710	3725	3747	3683
10:37:54PM	DOW	30178	29937	29865.5	29723	30085	30293	30384.5	30705	30120
10:39:36PM	JAPAN	26698	26394	26342	26207	26544	26747	26845	27059	26570
10:44:07PM	NASDAQ	12667	12591	12560.5	12494	12740	12745	12782	12835	12651

 

23/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6495 points. Change of 0.65%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,121,226,334 a change of -11.88%

22/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6453 points. Change of 19.66%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,676,737,915 a change of -29%

21/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 5393 points. Change of -17.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,586,656,478 a change of -30.25%

18/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6529 points. Change of -0.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,442,789,780 a change of 73.6%

17/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6551 points. Change of -0.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,439,357,090 a change of -30.57%

16/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6570 points. Change of 0.88%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,834,302,099 a change of 42.32%

15/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6513 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,504,806,685 a change of -17.61%

#FTSE #DOW A lot has happened in the 4 months since we last reviewed Eurasia, not least today (Tuesday) being woken at 6am by grandchildren arguing. Thanks to forthcoming travel bans, a good idea of bringing Xmas day forward to allow family to visit, cause chaos, eat too much, stay a few days and drive home in time for the UK Govt establishing internal blockades here on ‘Plague Island’ (thanks, NY Times!) ensured we did a “Proper Xmas” 3 days early.

Somehow, the bit I hadn’t factored in was the need to work after dinner. Some other family, somewhere else in the UK, must have (sub 9y/o) girls who’s great idea to allow an escape from the dinner table was something they called a Maths Quiz. This act of arithmetical nastiness proved horrifying, especially after suitable wine consumption during the day. Thankfully, as I write this, the other 3 adults remain trapped at the dining table, doubtless enjoying the gleeful shrieks from the girls as yet another wrong answer is supplied.

There’s something wrong with kids today, if a “Maths Quiz” is regarded a good idea…

 

Platinum and gold producer, Eurasia, achieved our initial target level postulated in August and while it came close to our secondary of 45p, it’s a worry the mid-price only achieved 44p before tumbling back to the 30p level. Perhaps it was a calibration error but we doubt it. Unless the company make a faux pas, once it started trading beyond our initial target level, continued travel to 45p was pretty inevitable and we suspect it’s ‘just’ overall market conditions provoking hesitation.

The situation now is pretty useful, movement next above 43p suggesting ongoing travel to an initial 57p with secondary, if bettered, at a longer term 77p.

To finish on an easy note, the price needs fall below 26p to now cause utter panic.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:49:35PM	BRENT	49.95	49.55	49.275	48.66	50.63	50.71	51.155	51.68	50.02
9:52:06PM	GOLD	1860.08	1858	1848.5	1829	1873	1884	1892.5	1904	1866	‘cess
10:02:23PM	FTSE	6458.84	6363	6316.5	6209	6438	6466	6477.5	6515	6405
10:04:36PM	FRANCE	5468.7	5401	5394.5	5367	5453	5477	5506	5536	5432
10:06:47PM	GERMANY	13406	13337	13296.5	13248	13406	13446	13566.5	13741	13347
10:08:28PM	US500	3683.47	3672	3659	3644	3698	3704	3715	3753	3673
10:10:27PM	DOW	30016	29980	29816	29652	30160	30311	30384.5	30705	30070
10:33:21PM	NASDAQ	26531	26348	26295.5	26084	26531	26632	26705.5	26825	26483

 

 

22/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6453 points. Change of 19.66%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,676,737,915 a change of -29%

21/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 5393 points. Change of -17.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,586,656,478 a change of -30.25%

18/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6529 points. Change of -0.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,442,789,780 a change of 73.6%

17/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6551 points. Change of -0.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,439,357,090 a change of -30.57%

16/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6570 points. Change of 0.88%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,834,302,099 a change of 42.32%

15/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6513 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,504,806,685 a change of -17.61%

14/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6531 points. Change of -0.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,681,528,209 a change of 9.32%

#Gold #Dax Just over a year ago, we reviewed Dixons, finding it unlikely the share would reach our calculated drop target of 55p. Needless to say, in the March Covid event, Dixons managed to hit 53.5p, bouncing fairly convincingly in the period since and now trading at 115p with a high this year at a fairly uninspiring 130p. Their share price has enacted a strange movement, potentially the harbinger of trouble again ahead.

We’re mildly curious as to what to expect, when companies such as this with a mix of High St retail, along with an online presence, and also, their Dixons Travel arm will report, when the full effects of Lockdowns leak through to the full year earnings report and audited results. In the case of Dixons, their behaviour has been fairly ethical with management variously taking salary cuts and waiving bonuses. In addition, the company suspended the dividend. The recent interim results proved surprising, reporting increased performance on Electricals despite stores being shut for substantial periods and generally surprisingly confident.

We don’t “get” why the share price, boosted above the immediate downtrend thanks to their interim results, has now been driven back below the trend. Our fear of the notorious Gap Up/Gap Down ploy by the markets is somewhat diluted, thanks to the movement below the trend being the result of trading as opposed to the market manipulating the price before trading commences. It’s still not an encouraging situation, suggesting ongoing weakness below 103p risks continued reversal to an initial 90p with secondary, when broken, at a bottom (and a bounce?) of 60p.

 

Of course, the share price has obviously sent a mixed message signal of impending calamity, managing to mimic UK Govt ministers who increasingly appear clueless as to what’s actually happening. It’s surely only a matter of time before they start blaming a previous administration for the current mess, one entirely of their own making. Dropping the ball would only be apt, had the current administration even been aware WHAT a ball actually was. It’s difficult to escape the humour, when tradition cheerleaders for the current Govt (Mail, Telegraph, BBC) are also starting to ridicule, finally, our utterly ridiculous leadership.

 

While writing this, readers should be aware tomorrow (22nd December) is now Faux Christmas with family visiting, presents exchanged, and of course dinner along with adequate lubrication. Thanks to travel restrictions from 26th December, it was to be impossible to host grandchildren not seen since last year. Instead, the monsters are staying, returning home on Thursday. Mentally, I doubt anyone was in the correct gear for an emergency Xmas day! A grudge is now held against the Govt for their panic, last minute, behaviour.

 

For Dixons to present hope for the future, the share needs exceed 130p and this calculates as capable of an initial 142p with secondary, if exceeded, up at 163p and almost certain hesitation.

---

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:32:04PM	BRENT	50.95	49.8	49.245	48.17	50.72	51.13	51.32	52.02	50.34	Success
10:34:28PM	GOLD	1877.32	1870	1862.5	1848	1886	1893	1902	1918	1877	Success
10:45:22PM	FTSE	6431	6384	6312	6202	6474	6477	6526	6598	6361	Success
10:47:59PM	FRANCE	5437	5367	5347.5	5258	5415	5444	5479	5540	5398	Success
10:50:49PM	GERMANY	13362	13175	13008	12837	13387	13444	13575.5	13755	13370	Success
10:54:07PM	US500	3692	3630	3598	3554	3678	3706	3713.5	3751	3683	Success
10:57:51PM	DOW	30214	30060	29910	29778	30244	30308	30390.5	30714	30107	Success
11:00:34PM	NASDAQ	12709	12564	12446	12331	12654	12709	12754.5	12853	12625	Success
11:03:58PM	JAPAN	26540	26202	26161	25903	26408	26709	26821.5	27028	26500	Success

21/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 5393 points. Change of -17.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,586,656,478 a change of -30.25%

18/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6529 points. Change of -0.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,442,789,780 a change of 73.6%

17/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6551 points. Change of -0.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,439,357,090 a change of -30.57%

16/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6570 points. Change of 0.88%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,834,302,099 a change of 42.32%

15/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6513 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,504,806,685 a change of -17.61%

14/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6531 points. Change of -0.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,681,528,209 a change of 9.32%

11/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6546 points. Change of -0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,112,009,870 a change of -15.57%

 

#FTSE #SP500

“It’s beginning to feel a lot like Chaos” almost sounds like a song title. With Covid-19 causing the UK’s isolation from Europe, only within Britain could things become more stupidly enacted. News of the new version of the virus apparently not becoming dangerous until after Xmas, unless you live in Wales, provoked some ridiculous behaviour. Travel within the UK is still possible, politicians fearing negative feedback if internal borders are closed. Illogical nods in the direction of “being seen to do something” came with recommendations on the size of family gatherings.

Here in our bit of Scotland, the usual invasion by grandchildren for the holiday break has been adjusted, thanks to travel within Scotland not being allowed after Xmas day. As we were not keen on the idea of hosting the monsters for at least 21 days, Christmas was brought forward to Tuesday 21st with the girls returning home on the 24th December. It makes sense, or at least it would, had reliable Covid tests been available prior to their invasion this weekend.

Of course, thrown into this mix has been the failure of the UK and Europe to complete their Brexit talks, the latest health emergency ensuring the political self imposed deadline was missed on Sunday.

 

None of this has anything to do with Barclays share price. Or does it?

 

Our previous review against Barclays three weeks ago gave criteria for the share to boost to 154p, a number which has been completely absent from recent movements. Instead, the price achieved 150p before flopping back to 135p. This version of reality has imposed itself across many members of the FTSE 100, the index clearly feeling the indecision broadcast by a UK Govt seemingly more concerned with headlines rather than substance.

We shall be quite concerned, if Barclays (presently trading around 145p) finds an excuse to fall below 137p on the chart (Red) as this feels capable of providing reversal to an initial 125p with secondary, if broken, at a bottom hopefully of 116p. There’s a very real danger if the share price finds an excuse to close a session below 116p, sharp reversal to 68p becomes viable.

There is some hope available, the share price needing to trade above 150p to impart the potential of Christmas cheer. Above this level, recovery to 161p calculates as possible with secondary, if bettered, a rather more useful 190p.

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	PriorFUTURES
8:22:33PM	BRENT	52.35	51.17	50.78	50.22	51.87	52.46	55.15	55.49	42.42	Success
8:24:36PM	GOLD	1882.13	1877	1873.5	1868	1888	1896	1901	1909	1878
8:27:31PM	FTSE	6538	6505	6476	6433	6551	6568	6585.5	6612	6518	Shambles
8:39:30PM	FRANCE	5511.7	5498	5476	5438	5537	5551	5558	5578	5522	‘cess
8:52:06PM	GERMANY	13675	13597	13532.5	13452	13680	13733	13795.75	13909	13600	‘cess
8:54:18PM	US500	3725	3685	3670	3650	3720	3728	3732	3767	3706	Shambles
8:57:46PM	DOW	30377	30178	30077.5	29976	30282	30382	30471	30618	30262	Success
9:01:50PM	NASDAQ	12750	12654	12593.5	12529	12730	12763	12791.5	12853	12658	Shambles
9:13:01PM	JAPAN	26876	26683	26582.5	26469	26793	26925	26959	27051	26750

18/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6529 points. Change of -0.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,442,789,780 a change of 73.6%

17/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6551 points. Change of -0.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,439,357,090 a change of -30.57%

16/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6570 points. Change of 0.88%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,834,302,099 a change of 42.32%

15/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6513 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,504,806,685 a change of -17.61%

14/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6531 points. Change of -0.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,681,528,209 a change of 9.32%

11/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6546 points. Change of -0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,112,009,870 a change of -15.57%

10/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6599 points. Change of 0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,239,162,237 a change of 27.24%

#FTSE #GOLD When we last glanced at the AIM nearly a month ago, we’d speculated on the coming potential of a rise cycle of around 20%. It’s rather pleasing to report things have kicked off, the junior UK market now comfortably trading at its highest level of the year, cheerfully leaving pre-Covid drop levels behind, along with the highs of last year too! Optimism is the name of the game it seems, certainly for the AIM market. (Code: FTSE:AXX)

It’s a real pity retailer GAME has delisted as news they are releasing a Super Mario themed perfume (Eau De Plumber) would normally justify an optimistic analysis. Or maybe not…

The FTSE is difficult, the index proving incredibly lethargic in recent weeks, gloriously failing in any attempt to follow the path taken by many other markets worldwide, thanks to introduction of virus medication. To be quite clear, if the FTSE were following examples set by the US or Europe, we’d currently be singing the praises of 8,070 as a logical target for London. Instead, about the best we dare hope for, even if a “Santa Rally” runs amok, is for a market gain toward 7,000 points. There’s a distinct feeling of dismay attached to FTSE behaviour, the index feeling like it’s primed for the release of bad news, simply going through the motions in the meantime.

Obviously, it’s easy to assume this is Brexit related uncertainty, especially as no-one seems confident predicting what’s going to happen. Someone once said something along the lines of “Civilisation is only ever 3 square meals away from utter collapse!” and with supermarkets apparently stockpiling food and the Financial Times reporting the UK’s Covid death toll is around 70,000, some nerves are understandable.

Near term, the FTSE needs exceed 6,602 points to ideally provoke growth to an initial 6,633 points. If bettered, secondary calculates at a longer term 6,681 points with a 3rd target level of 6,712 almost certain to provide a point of real hesitation. The tightest stop looks like a rather generous 6,550 points.

In the even 6,550 breaks, there’s a risk of reversal commencing to 6,516 with secondary, if broken, down at 6,482.

Hopefully this, the last Friday trading before Xmas, proves kind to traders.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:39:36PM	BRENT	51.61	51.07	50.915		51.6	51.86	52.045		51.23	‘cess
10:41:42PM	GOLD	1885.89	1870	1863		1889	1896	1903.75		1871	Success
10:46:29PM	FTSE	6556	6542	6532.5		6580	6601	6614		6556
10:48:07PM	FRANCE	5541.2	5535	5514		5561	5593	5627		5536
10:50:25PM	GERMANY	13682	13556	13519		13653	13733	13755.5		13646	Success
10:53:04PM	US500	3722	3704	3700		3722	3725	3752		3708	‘cess
10:55:52PM	DOW	30307.6	30220	30197.5		30316	30332	30448		30220
10:58:17PM	NASDAQ	12751	12663	12636.5		12736	12768	12797.75		12675	‘cess
11:00:10PM	JAPAN	26776	26717	26692		26812	26851	26879.5		26761	‘cess

 

17/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6551 points. Change of -0.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,439,357,090 a change of -30.57%

16/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6570 points. Change of 0.88%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,834,302,099 a change of 42.32%

15/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6513 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,504,806,685 a change of -17.61%

14/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6531 points. Change of -0.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,681,528,209 a change of 9.32%

11/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6546 points. Change of -0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,112,009,870 a change of -15.57%

10/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6599 points. Change of 0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,239,162,237 a change of 27.24%

9/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6564 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,689,395,466 a change of 1.75%