Trends And Targets

#Brent #Dow The motor trade, enjoying a vile 2020, must surely be high in the “bounce back” stakes if normality returns to the UK. Of course, if the doom-sayers about Brexit prove correct, #Pendragon may suffer supply issues due to lengthy delays expected at docks. Our report in 2019 on the company was prophetic, especially about the price low of 4p! Pendragon is about more than selling cars, developing & supplying software to the motor trade globally and also providing vehicle leasing facilities.

Once we’ve got the 1st of January under our belts, the reality of backlogs, changed tariffs, and of course any necessary adjustment in the price on windscreens, promises to utterly skew predictions of what “normality” may actually look like. Who knows, it may be the case cars built in the UK shall experience price advantages over those built in the free world… At times, it feels likely the UK will jump from a Covid-19 frying pan into a Brexit frying pan, ensuring 2021 (for the UK anyway) promises to be another year of mixed up trading and financial results.

 

We’ve two distinct ways of looking at Pendragon and their prospects for share price recovery. The fall in March to the Covid-19 low of 4p was, from our perspective, arithmetically correct. In the period since, the share has hardly flown to the moon, every upward twitch almost feeling quite grudging. The immediate position of Blue on the chart suggests some hope in the event the share stumbles above 17p at present, this giving early warning some price recovery is coming.

Unfortunately, our software presents 18.2p as a viable trigger level, insisting the share trade above this level to ensure some real upward movement is coming, giving an initial target level of 21.8p with secondary, if exceeded, at 25p. At the 25p level, it becomes important for the price to close above this point. Such a scenario (yes, we know, the price needs to DOUBLE from current) launches a strong argument favouring a long term attraction at 43p.

 

Alas, the immediate picture isn’t terribly assuring as there’s the threat of weakness below 11.5p driving the price back to 8.5p. We suspect this shall become a reality and think 8.5p may provide an ideal level for entry, if speculating on Pendragon making a price recovery.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:00:46PM	BRENT	51.13	50.33	50.07	49.7	51.01	51.2	51.54	52.33	50.33	‘cess
10:03:53PM	GOLD	1864.95									‘cess
10:07:02PM	FTSE	6573.14									‘cess
10:09:19PM	FRANCE	5553.8									‘cess
10:19:28PM	GERMANY	13579									Success
10:24:02PM	US500	3700.47									Success
10:31:11PM	DOW	30165	30136	30060.5	29977	30236	30311	30366	30541	30174	‘cess
10:33:08PM	NASDAQ	12672									Success
10:34:57PM	JAPAN	26806

16/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6570 points. Change of 0.88%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,834,302,099 a change of 42.32%

15/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6513 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,504,806,685 a change of -17.61%

14/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6531 points. Change of -0.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,681,528,209 a change of 9.32%

11/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6546 points. Change of -0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,112,009,870 a change of -15.57%

10/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6599 points. Change of 0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,239,162,237 a change of 27.24%

9/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6564 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,689,395,466 a change of 1.75%

8/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6558 points. Change of 0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,591,373,092 a change of -5.03%

#FTSE #Nasdaq Lockdown brought many conversations, not least being the subject of misheard lyrics. A classic, from Queens Bohemian Rhapsody was uncovered, “Spare him his life from these Pork Sausagees” completely overshadowed “The Nashville Express”, always assumed to be a tune praising the country music capital of the world. In each case, the reality of actual song lyrics became quite bland, when compared with the true wording. (Monstrosity = Pork Sausagees and National Express = Nashville Express)

 

We’ve been digging around, searching for shares which should produce some irrational strengths, in the hope the world returns to a semblance of normality with coronavirus perhaps becoming a distant memory in the year ahead. Alternately, there’s always the risk the new vaccines shall cause a zombie apocalypse, anointing 2021 with the potential of being an even more interesting year than 2020 has been. With a relative being an early recipient of the vaccine, it’s certainly going to be difficult identifying any change, if she turns into a zombie…

 

Bus operator, National Express, recently in the news with an announcement of improved financing for 2021 and beyond, certainly have potential for quite strong recovery in the future. To this end, we’ve identified 254p as a key trigger level for the longer term.

In the event of the share price closing above 254p, we’re calculating the potential of a recovery cycle commencing toward an initial 307p with secondary, if bettered, a longer term 372p. In fact, it’s not difficult to produce 453p as a substantial long term aim, this particular target level showing a possibility of an approach to Blue on the chart, the long term downtrend since 2007. For things to go wrong with the price, it needs reverse below 175p to justify panic, this risking the price suffering extreme danger with a potential collision down at 80p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:58:14PM	BRENT	50.75
9:59:55PM	GOLD	1853.52									Success
10:01:35PM	FTSE	6544.5	6480	6455	6420	6532	6560	6582.5	6616	6514	Shambles
10:03:57PM	FRANCE	5560.8									‘cess
10:11:36PM	GERMANY	13421									Success
10:13:44PM	US500	3694.37									‘cess
10:16:09PM	DOW	30214.5
10:18:07PM	NASDAQ	12602	12416	12348	12263	12544	12603	12629.75	12689	12467	‘cess
10:20:30PM	JAPAN	26796									‘cess

15/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6513 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,504,806,685 a change of -17.61%

14/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6531 points. Change of -0.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,681,528,209 a change of 9.32%

11/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6546 points. Change of -0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,112,009,870 a change of -15.57%

10/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6599 points. Change of 0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,239,162,237 a change of 27.24%

9/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6564 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,689,395,466 a change of 1.75%

8/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6558 points. Change of 0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,591,373,092 a change of -5.03%

7/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6555 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,887,798,366 a change of -14.07%

 

#GOLD #FRANCE News Ryanair intended order 75 new Boeing 737 Max raised an eyebrow. Had the company taken advantage of the plane makers troubles, intending to pick up a bunch of cheap jets in a aviation car boot sale? Or more likely, was this a PR exercise, designed to raise confidence in the jet which has been grounded internationally for 22 months! Perhaps there’s a more important facet to these manoeuvres, one which may make SOME airline shares strong recovery targets.

Recently, Ryanair started trading above 2020’s pre-Covid price level, an amazing accomplishment given passenger numbers remain down by more than 80%. The company, quite forcefully, take the attitude things shall return to normal next year with the assumption Coronavirus shall be vanquished, people will again be happy crammed into a Petri dish of germs, Brexit will work out. And fairly important, the new 737 Max fuel efficient aircraft shall prove safe, reliable and a hit with the public. Doubtless the company will produce some bargain basement ticket prices just to get things moving.

 

The chart below encompasses some interesting potentials for the long term. Ryanair, presently trading around 15.8 Euro, has very successfully and quite exactly performed according to our report in October, the share rising from 13 Euro to a target 15.8 Euro. We demanded the price actually close above 15.8 to suggest some strong Big Picture potentials, a feat it has achieved several times in the last few weeks. Our inclination is to play safe and sane for the longer term.

For this reason, we’ve established a trigger level at 17.8. In the event Ryanair share prices trade above this level, we anticipate a price lift to a modest 19.2, matching the prior all time high of 2017. Our secondary, if such a level is now exceeded, calculates at a longer term 25 Euro.

If anything about the world presently was “normal”, we’d already be anticipating a trip to 19.2 with some confidence. It occurs Ryanair bullish behaviour may also be due to the number of smaller operators which will not return to flight operations, thanks to financial pressures. Doubtless the company intend to ‘pick up the slack’ from the vanquished.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:52:25PM	BRENT	50.36
9:54:36PM	GOLD	1828.27	1821	1816.5	1797	1831	1839	1842	1850	1824
9:57:12PM	FTSE	6518.99									‘cess
9:59:11PM	FRANCE	5508.6	5507	5496.5	5470	5532	5535	5560.5	5593	5510	Success
10:01:17PM	GERMANY	13209									‘cess
10:18:20PM	US500	3649
10:20:46PM	DOW	29922									‘cess
10:22:47PM	NASDAQ	12466									Success
10:27:14PM	JAPAN	26670									‘cess

14/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6531 points. Change of -0.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,681,528,209 a change of 9.32%

11/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6546 points. Change of -0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,112,009,870 a change of -15.57%

10/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6599 points. Change of 0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,239,162,237 a change of 27.24%

9/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6564 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,689,395,466 a change of 1.75%

8/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6558 points. Change of 0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,591,373,092 a change of -5.03%

7/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6555 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,887,798,366 a change of -14.07%

4/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6550 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,852,193,326 a change of -2.58%

#BrentCrude #DAX Despite festive lights decorating our garden, the reality indoors (thankfully) has been a lack of a Xmas tree, along with the usual paraphernalia which somehow means everything in the house interior needs moved around. We opted to follow the herd locally, illuminating the house exterior at the start of December, joining a collective effort to pretend cheer and normality. Of course, the interior will only be dealt with a few days before Xmas as the usual mad panic ensues when planning for grandchildren arriving for a week of anarchy.

For a few days at the start of December, it felt like Natwest were copying our example, the share price achieving our previous 165p target level, even exceeding it slightly during a few sessions. But of course, the price decoration was suspected to be for exterior views only as it has fallen back fairly considerably. The immediate reversal cycle looks capable of weakness below 148 provoking reversal to an initial 144 with secondary, if broken, at 134p where it shall hopefully rebound.

The secondary level presents a pretty major issue, thanks to weakness below such a point taking the share into a zone where 113p is the best hope but unfortunately, if something truly nasty drives reversals, the price could dive swiftly to a bottom of 75p.

 

Of course, it’s be churlish to ignore the movement to our 165p target level did exceed target, so we’re supposed to broadcast festive cheer. There is certainly a favourable scenario suggesting ongoing strength next bettering 173p should head uphill to an initial 186p with secondary, if bettered, now at 191p.

Here’s hoping.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
1:29:31PM	BRENT	49.99	49.7	49.485	48.98	50.31	50.7	51.035	51.48	49.85
1:33:39PM	GOLD	1840.22
1:36:15PM	FTSE	6569.22									Success
1:41:36PM	FRANCE	5521.9									‘cess
1:44:33PM	GERMANY	13145	13063	13001.5	12850	13160	13188	13239	13318	13116	Success
2:20:23PM	US500	3661									‘cess
2:22:25PM	DOW	30060									Success
2:24:43PM	NASDAQ	12376
2:28:10PM	JAPAN	26606									Success

 

11/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6546 points. Change of -0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,112,009,870 a change of -15.57%

10/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6599 points. Change of 0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,239,162,237 a change of 27.24%

9/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6564 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,689,395,466 a change of 1.75%

8/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6558 points. Change of 0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,591,373,092 a change of -5.03%

7/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6555 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,887,798,366 a change of -14.07%

4/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6550 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,852,193,326 a change of -2.58%

3/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6490 points. Change of 0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,033,541,138 a change of 11.37%

FTSE for FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) Last Friday again provided a clue why our glance at the UK100 market is so popular, literally worldwide. We’d given criteria for a modest 55 point rise on the FTSE, calculating a secondary target at 6,560 points (link). On Friday, the FTSE topped out at 6,559.18 points, almost exactly our ambition and once again proving there’s a little bit more than guesswork going on!

Unusually, we also mentioned a 3rd target for the FTSE at 6,611 points, this being successfully achieved on Wednesday when the index achieved a day high of 6,623. It certainly feels, at least until such time our Govt foul up Brexit negotiations or Covid-19 immunisations, a Santa Rally is taking place. This being the case, some considerable hope is available for further market movements upward, though we’ve understandable hesitation with Big Picture ambitions. Surely UK politicians shall discover some method of derailing the potential of a 600 point rise cycle?

Near term, we calculate movement above 6,641 points as being capable of an initial 6,697 points. This target level is quite interesting as we’ve currently 3 distinctly different scenario establishing this as a viable target level. Usually we’re more than happy when 2 scenario agree, thus confidence appears possible. If exceeded, our secondary works out at 6,747 points.

From a bigger picture viewpoint, the FTSE has finally above the 6,500 level, a painfully obvious glass ceiling. Longer term, we can now mention 7,081 with secondary 7,310 as quite strong recovery prospects. It’s definitely “fingers crossed time” as London would need reverse below 6,074 to justify hysterics. In the absence of strong political will attempting to damage the markets, confidence appears possible.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:24:06PM	BRENT	50.36	48.81	48.41		49.7	50.99	51.13		49.5	‘cess
10:26:24PM	GOLD	1837	1828	1817.5		1850	1853	1863.5		1833
10:45:32PM	FTSE	6602	6557	6549.5		6602	6617	6641.5		6583	‘cess
10:48:13PM	FRANCE	5540	5507	5491.5		5550	5571	5588		5531
10:51:35PM	GERMANY	13299	13259	13194		13325	13370	13394		13280	‘cess
10:53:53PM	US500	3669	3655	3638.5		3678	3684	3699.5		3657	‘cess
10:56:42PM	DOW	30040	29936	29868		30066	30130	30162		30019	‘cess
10:59:00PM	NASDAQ	12402	12220	12147		12380	12448	12460.5		12348	‘cess
11:01:14PM	JAPAN	26688	26606	26537		26753	26831	26893.5		26670	‘cess

10/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6599 points. Change of 0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,239,162,237 a change of 27.24%

9/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6564 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,689,395,466 a change of 1.75%

8/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6558 points. Change of 0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,591,373,092 a change of -5.03%

7/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6555 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,887,798,366 a change of -14.07%

4/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6550 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,852,193,326 a change of -2.58%

3/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6490 points. Change of 0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,033,541,138 a change of 11.37%

2/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6463 points. Change of 1.24%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,315,459,569 a change of 10.4%

#DAX #NASDAQ We’d planned to focus on Brent alone but an email, rather plaintively, asked us to take a quick look at #SThree PLC, essentially a recruitment agency with a bunch of well known brands in its stable. The exercise turned into a prime example of “easily distracted”, thanks to not coming across the share before with the result we decided to feature both shares in this, our Trends and Targets headline section.

 

SThree , presently trading around 302p, is quite surprising. At first glance, it’s easy to dismiss the share as floundering around but given it’s doing so within an impressive trading range (2 quid to 4 quid) and has been in this hiatus since 2015, it provides a fairly safe haven. Except, of course, for the folk who bought at 4 quid and those who opened a short at £2. The immediate cycle is fairly interesting, allowing us to present a couple of scenario.

In the event the share manages above 333p, it looks capable of triggering further recovery toward an initial 360p, a point at which the share price intercepts the 13 year old Blue downtrend. We’d obviously suspect some hesitation at this level but critically, if the company manages to actually close a day above 360p, there’s a pretty strong argument favouring an upward break in the direction of 453p. This sort of thing is liable to prove game changing for the longer term, thanks to the allure of 649p as a Big Picture ambition.

Alternately, and doubtless less likely if the Covid-19 thing resolves itself, will be the danger implied if the price manages to weaken below 235p for any reason. A movement such is this is liable to prove traumatic, allowing reversal to 177p (again, breaking the rangebound situation) with secondary, if broken, at 100p.

Brent Crude Brent is proving frustrating, thanks to a problem with the numbers. For some considerable time, we’ve been calculating the $50 level as a ‘problem area’ for the price of UK Crude and the barrel price has avoided tampering with this price, movements in December remaining carefully below the $50 mark. When this sort of thing happens, it’s generally quite easy to assume a trigger level exists, one which the market is carefully avoiding.

We suspect this shall prove the case.

Movement next above $50 (or if playing utterly safe, $51.5 thanks to some ambiguous price shuffles) looks very capable of commencing price recovery to an initial $55.88 with secondary, if exceeded, calculating at a more impressive $65.26. The surprising feature with both target levels comes from the proximity of the long term downtrend and uptrend. Achieving $55.88 would certainly challenge the Blue line on the chart. Achieving $65.26 would imply a coming attempt for the barrel price to regain its historical uptrend, a truly amazing feat.

For things to go horribly wrong for Brent Crude, the price needs drip below the $42 level as reversal to the $29 mark looks very possible.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:47:59PM	BRENT	49.02									‘cess
9:50:00PM	GOLD	1839.47
9:55:12PM	FTSE	6577									Success
9:57:29PM	FRANCE	5554.4									‘cess
10:00:03PM	GERMANY	13345	13279	13242	13171	13353	13455	13483.25	13530	13363	Success
10:02:35PM	US500	3671.27									‘cess
10:04:45PM	DOW	30064									Shambles
10:08:07PM	NASDAQ	12356	12307	12235	12208	12457	12510	12553	12636	12413	Success
10:09:44PM	JAPAN	26681									Success

9/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6564 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,689,395,466 a change of 1.75%

8/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6558 points. Change of 0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,591,373,092 a change of -5.03%

7/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6555 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,887,798,366 a change of -14.07%

4/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6550 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,852,193,326 a change of -2.58%

3/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6490 points. Change of 0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,033,541,138 a change of 11.37%

2/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6463 points. Change of 1.24%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,315,459,569 a change of 10.4%

1/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6384 points. Change of 1.88%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,720,343,712 a change of -42.77%

#CAC40 #WallSt  Sometimes the temptation to do a little research on a company can drag you down a rabbit hole. A desire to discover the words behind the letters, BHP Group Plc (Broken Hill Proprietary) revealed a company, formed in 1885, with a fascinating history. It was funny, an assumption the mob were originally South African, came from their previous name, BHP Billiton and stupid logic the naming convention was related to the best thing to come out of South Africa, Biltong.

Obviously, this shocking discovery demanded more research, in the process discovering the Billiton part of the name came from another, older, company working on Belitung, an island off the coast of Sumatra.

Long (very long) story short, by 2017 BHP could claim to be the largest mining company in the world, based on their market capitalisation alone. And they’ve never had anything to do with a dried beef treat from South Africa!

 

Similar to every other share, BHP received a similar hammering in March, thanks to Covid-19. In the period since, the share has more than doubled in value and now, is trading higher than before the Covid-19 drop. From our perspective, this is a good sight and promises more for the future. The immediate picture is fairly interesting, suggesting movement beyond 1942p should make an attempt at an initial 2064p, challenging the historical highs from last year (2019). This is liable to prove significant as closure above 2064p calculates as game changing for the longer term with 2503p making a lot of sense as a future ambition.

Above such a level, we’d need revisit the tea leaves but for now, BHP appear to be inspiring some confidence. The share price would need break Red on the chart, currently 1570p, to justify buying running shoes. Even any return below Blue at 1800p would suggest raising an eyebrow in concern.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:56:05PM	BRENT	48.83									‘cess
9:57:29PM	GOLD	1870.89
9:59:10PM	FTSE	6573
10:00:32PM	FRANCE	5575.7	5519	5504.5	5480	5562	5579	5595.5	5621	5539	‘cess
10:07:26PM	GERMANY	13315									‘cess
10:09:21PM	US500	3703.47									‘cess
10:31:35PM	DOW	30185	29862	29785	29632	30061	30244	30328.5	30484	30102	‘cess
10:33:33PM	NASDAQ	12648									‘cess
10:35:29PM	JAPAN	26516

8/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6558 points. Change of 0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,591,373,092 a change of -5.03%

7/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6555 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,887,798,366 a change of -14.07%

4/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6550 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,852,193,326 a change of -2.58%

3/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6490 points. Change of 0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,033,541,138 a change of 11.37%

2/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6463 points. Change of 1.24%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,315,459,569 a change of 10.4%

1/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6384 points. Change of 1.88%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,720,343,712 a change of -42.77%

30/11/2020 FTSE Closed at 6266 points. Change of -1.59%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,995,620,767 a change of -0.31%