Trends And Targets

#GoldFutures #SP500_futures Usually we like to present our trading scenario with trigger levels and targets. Unfortunately, Brent Crude is making a nuisance of itself, thanks to price behaviour during the last month. Despite the majority of traders not actually trading Brent in the commodities markets, it’s a pretty key indicator insofar the price of Brent will always effect the price of Major Oilers. And of course, if major oilers go up, so shall the FTSE.

 

In preparation for expensive times ahead, we’ve already taken action, buying 50 litres of diesel for our little red tractor, 1,200 litres of heating oil, and 10 litres of petrol for the chainsaw. To be honest, the diesel purchase was nothing to do with market forces, it’s just that time of year when grass will soon start to grow. And the heating oil purchase was a coincidence as the alternative was freezing while our miserable Scottish climate pretends to be heating up. Finally, petrol for the chainsaw is probably best filed under “fun”. Last years remnants of fuel were drained months ago, thanks to modern petrol actually having a shelf life, then it goes off! But invariably, any job involving the chainsaw tends be provide light relief, often concealing the hard work.

Now armed with 6+ months of fuel, the next chore is to actually service the garden machinery and this year, a solid effort shall be made during March to fix the brakes on the tractor. Invariably friends visiting want a go on it and with lockdown potentially ending, hopefully some chums invade. It’s perhaps asking a bit much to expect someone driving the tractor to engage reverse while moving forward. The brakes simply do not work!

 

February witnessed Brent climb from 55 dollars through to our previous “market high” target of 65 dollars. The climb was pretty remorseless, taking the product above and below our target level from December last year (Link). As per our usual custom, we’d not given a 3rd target level but there’s little doubt, despite the potential of some near term reversals, Brent crude should continue its climb.

The product needs reverse below $48 to cancel our current optimistic scenario.

Our next target level for Brent looks like $68.5 with secondary, when exceeded, at $74.5. We fully expect the secondary target of $74.5 to experience some stutters, if only due to a prior high in 2019. Unusually, we can give a third target level at 95 dollars, visually a massive jump and one we suspect unlikely on the current cycle.

 

If searching for near term indications of weakness, below $63 looks pretty certain to drip down to $61.70. If broken, continual reversal to a bottom, hopefully, of $57 is expected.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:59:03PM	BRENT	63.28									‘cess
10:05:50PM	GOLD	1725	1717	1678	1646	1743	1747	1761	1767	1732	Success
10:09:12PM	FTSE	6610									‘cess
10:12:18PM	FRANCE	5807									‘cess
10:26:26PM	GERMANY	14037									Success
10:28:56PM	US500	3905	3836	3810.5	3776	3870	3915	3958	4012	3868	‘cess
10:31:08PM	DOW	31579									Success
10:38:14PM	NASDAQ	13315									‘cess
10:40:28PM	JAPAN	29901									‘cess

1/03/2021 FTSE Closed at 6588 points. Change of 1.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,185,435,500 a change of -34.59%

26/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6483 points. Change of -2.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,456,681,275 a change of 48.72%

25/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6651 points. Change of -0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,358,793,501 a change of -9.6%

24/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6658 points. Change of 0.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,033,846,680 a change of -16.27%

23/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6625 points. Change of 0.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,400,811,010 a change of 24.64%

22/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6612 points. Change of -0.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,739,937,565 a change of 0.76%

19/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6624 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,689,261,003 a change of 15.24%

#Dax #BrentCrude Today, it’s March and we’re already seeing some early signs of spring. One odd feature was late this year, the traditional “Running of The Frogs” event here in Argyll, Scotland. This (completely unknown) series of evenings has countless thousand frogs hopping across the shore road from the waters edge, presumably where they hibernate over winter. Within the following week, puddles in the forests are full of frog spawn. Traditionally, the earlier the migration, the better the summer!

Frog Thinking goes like this; “Better wake up and get to a puddle or pond now as everything will dry up pretty soon.”

Therefore, the start of February will sometimes see the road lined with flattened frogs, motorists completely unaware they’ve just driven over a (usually) reliable weather forecaster. Unfortunately, this great migration has been late this year and it tends suggest spring shall be wet, making us forget our usual hope for May & June providing the best months of a Scottish summer. Tonight, the frogs are massing, looking like leafs on a dark road surface. Early March frog mayhem on the road outside shall not give great ambition for a dry year ahead.

 

Another sign of things changing – a bit – has been Barclays. Announcing resumption of their dividend (only 1p/share) it was a fairly lacklustre sign of things returned to ‘normal’ but despite their mention of losses in the last full year, the company share price has risen a solid 10% since their results announcement. We’ve a couple of reasons to believe this rise shall prove important for the longer term.

Three weeks ago, when we reviewed Barclays (link), we’d given criteria for a price rise to 160.5p. This was achieved, even exceeded, and the share managed to close above the target level twice last week. For us, this ticks a box to justify longer term optimism.

Secondly, the chart has a Blue downtrend which dates back to 2007. Despite some dramatics this year, the share price has now cleared this downtrend, again giving some excuse for optimism. Next above 166p allows us to calculate the potential of continued growth to 181p with secondary, if exceeded, working out at a pretty solid looking 190p. The secondary effectively matches the high of the share price before the price caught the Covid-19 bug almost exactly a year ago. Common sense alone suggests the risk of hesitation at such a level.

For it all to go horribly wrong, Barclays share price needs now actually close a session below 140p. To be fair, closure even below 155p would now give early warning of some alarm.

Hopefully our optimism isn’t as misplaced as a frog hopping across the main road outside, a night, with no lights or even a dayglo frog jacket.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:25:21PM	BRENT	64.51	64.15	63.87	62.89	65.5	65.73	66.255	66.94	64.25	‘cess
2:12:12PM	GOLD	1735									Success
2:01:13PM	FTSE	6500									Success
2:05:31PM	FRANCE	5709
2:10:11PM	GERMANY	13796	13714	13620	13569	13858	13877	13899.5	13987	13753	‘cess
2:12:58PM	US500	3810.77									‘cess
2:17:10PM	DOW	30954									‘cess
2:19:54PM	NASDAQ	12913
2:22:45PM	JAPAN	29237									Success

 

 

26/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6483 points. Change of -2.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,456,681,275 a change of 48.72%

25/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6651 points. Change of -0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,358,793,501 a change of -9.6%

24/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6658 points. Change of 0.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,033,846,680 a change of -16.27%

23/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6625 points. Change of 0.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,400,811,010 a change of 24.64%

22/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6612 points. Change of -0.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,739,937,565 a change of 0.76%

19/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6624 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,689,261,003 a change of 15.24%

18/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6617 points. Change of -1.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,804,629,617 a change of -22.73%

The last six sessions of the #FTSE have been epically boring for us at Trends and Targets, giving a maximum range of 46 points. With all the “stuff” going on in the world, surely the UK market does not need try too hard to find an excuse to actually do something but despite the failure of the FTSE to become interesting, we’re curious about a couple of details which are otherwise unremarked.

Three sectors arouse our immediate interest, the Banking Sector, Major Miners, and Travel & Leisure. All three of these sectors are starting to take a real interest in life, using the time when the FTSE is otherwise asleep to display early signs of considerable hope for the months ahead. For instance, with the banking sector, we already see early suggestions of a justifiable 20% increase across share prices in the weeks ahead. And with the Miners, it’s pretty easy to extrapolate a 12% average rise across sector share prices. With Travel & Leisure we’re slightly less confident, the markets perhaps exercising caution with Covid-19 vaccines but in the event the sector index closes above 9,000 points, we anticipate an initial 15% surge in prices, perhaps over 30% if confidence floods back.

It’s obviously early days, especially as confidence has not yet leaked with sufficient force to nudge the FTSE but perhaps things shall reach a critical mass, moving with enhanced speed once the vaccine program rolls out in early March with under 50’s receiving ‘The Call’ to attend a clinic.

 

As for our popular FTSE for Friday, we’re inclined to some near term alarm, thanks to whatever scared the pants off America on Thursday. With the S&P down 2.5%, the Nasdaq down 3.6% and the Dow Jones experiencing a 1.8% drop, we suspect a bout of nerves shall leach across the Atlantic for Friday, provoking some reversals. At least, until the USA opens for business!

When the USA closed on Thursday, FTSE Futures were at 6588, substantially below the UK markets closing price of 6651 points. As a result, it’s probable the UK shall open solidly down on Friday morning and this presents some major problems.

In the event the FTSE opens below 6607 points, we suspect continued reversals to an initial 6577 points with secondary, if broken, at 6508 and hopefully a bounce.

 

The opposite scenario is quite strange as should the FTSE open above 6607, there’s a chance of some insane and unexpected recovery toward 6650 with secondary 6701 points. It can be safely assumed we don’t expect this as it nudges the UK into a region where we can again discuss the possibility of future movements to 7133 points and above.

 

Have a good weekend, for amusement keep an eye on Scottish Politics (They now have renamed ‘The Crown Office’ to ‘The Clown Office’) and importantly, Formula1 recommences in just 30 days.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:54:48PM	BRENT	66.1	65.59	64.825		66.45	66.57	67.025		65.64	‘cess
11:04:56PM	GOLD	1770.51	1768	1763		1783	1801	1809.5		1785	‘cess
11:07:02PM	FTSE	6601.5	6567	6550		6641	6653	6665.5		6599
11:11:33PM	FRANCE	5727	5714	5674		5767	5770	5793.5		5730	Success
11:14:44PM	GERMANY	13781	13731	13668.5		13851	13860	13913.5		13765	Success
11:17:35PM	US500	3830	3824	3813		3870	3874	3898.5		3834	Shambles
11:23:10PM	DOW	31420	31286	31088.5		31538	31699	31865		31480	Success
11:25:27PM	NASDAQ	12803	12765	12746.5		12915	13055	13151		12880	‘cess
11:27:54PM	JAPAN	29615	29538	29471		29680	29913	30032.5		29712	Shambles

25/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6651 points. Change of -0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,358,793,501 a change of -9.6%

24/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6658 points. Change of 0.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,033,846,680 a change of -16.27%

23/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6625 points. Change of 0.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,400,811,010 a change of 24.64%

22/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6612 points. Change of -0.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,739,937,565 a change of 0.76%

19/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6624 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,689,261,003 a change of 15.24%

18/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6617 points. Change of -1.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,804,629,617 a change of -22.73%

17/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6710 points. Change of -0.56%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,511,824,336 a change of 35.06%

#SP500 #BrentCrude Interviewer Michael Parkinson is to blame for many things, one of them for making impossible to read ‘Barnsley’ without hearing his voice saying it in your head, his Yorkshire accent prolonging the “a”, longer than a soprano holding a low note. Braveheart, despite their pseudo Scottish name and company registration, are based in Yorkshire – probably to escape Scottish weather and hilarious politics. We’ve received more than our fair share of emails, asking an opinion regarding recent share price movements.

 

Presently trading around 100p, the recent lunge in the direction of 139p proved especially interesting, given the share exceeded any near term logical calculations. We’d an argument favouring 133p as a potential ceiling, a level at which any rise could be expected to hesitate. Despite the price failing to actually close a session above our 133p target, instead topping out at 128.5p, we’re curious as to its future. Since the price achieved 139p, reversals adhered pretty firmly to our conventional “stutters” logic and create a situation where we can relatively easily pencil in a trigger level which should be capable of provoking further gains.

Above 123.5p looks like the starting gate, ideally capable of promoting a gain toward 147p next. Despite this sounding pretty significant and exciting, there’s a more important detail with its roots back in 2007 when the listing launched. Above 147p and it becomes easy to speculate on continued growth to 172p, virtually matching the launch price before it all went wrong and the financial crisis gave the share an absolute kicking. In the future, closure above 172p will be defined as game changing with 227p becoming the next viable target level.

 

The share would require a retreat below 80p to suggest against painting your face blue and shouting “Freedom” in a Mel Gibson voice, thanks to the threat of reversal toward 34p…

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:48:31PM	BRENT	66.48	64	63.885	63.02	65	66.48	66.59	67.59	65.53	Success
10:50:46PM	GOLD	1805.36									‘cess
10:53:15PM	FTSE	6659									‘cess
10:58:45PM	FRANCE	5805									‘cess
11:01:20PM	GERMANY	14011									‘cess
11:06:46PM	US500	3925	3858	3850	3823	3901	3931	3945	3991	3898	Success
11:09:42PM	DOW	31974									Success
11:13:02PM	NASDAQ	13300									‘cess
11:15:10PM	JAPAN	30045									Shambles

24/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6658 points. Change of 0.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,033,846,680 a change of -16.27%

23/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6625 points. Change of 0.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,400,811,010 a change of 24.64%

22/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6612 points. Change of -0.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,739,937,565 a change of 0.76%

19/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6624 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,689,261,003 a change of 15.24%

18/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6617 points. Change of -1.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,804,629,617 a change of -22.73%

17/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6710 points. Change of -0.56%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,511,824,336 a change of 35.06%

16/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6748 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,561,960,634 a change of -0.72%

COIN:BTCUSD, ETHUSD, XRPGBP #CAC40 #Nikkei Despite UK regulator action on crypto currency trading, there appears plenty who still trade the products, using slightly offshore platforms. On Tues 23th Feb, with considerable horror, traders watched Bitcoin losing $13,000, Ethereum dumping $600 and XRP tossing 11p in the bin! Perhaps percentage terms shall prove more relatable, Bitcoin lost 22%, Ethereum lost 29% and Ripple lost 26%.

It is probably safe to say it was not the finest session for many traders. For legendary Bitcoin miners, it was a nasty cave in and we’re not certain the tragedy is over yet.

But then again, it might be!

With Bitcoin, the immediate cycle which led to $57,000US had been presenting the threat of reversal to $43,250 but when the price imploded, the value “only” shrunk to $44,888. Perhaps this is an implication of strength as our bottom number was not troubled. Using the same logic, Ethereum has presented the potential of $1300 but on the day, it bounced from $1367. Again, an implication of strength. Finally, XRP hit a low of 0.2950 rather than bother our calculation of 0.27250.

We’ve a (sometimes dodgy) logic which tells us to be cynical, if price drops fail to breach target on the day of the initial correction. Even though our target level may be broken in future days, we’re cautious advocating flat panic in the event prices bounce just above targets. In the case of each of the three crypto cons, we are loathe to suggest they present an immediate short opportunity.

 

Needless to say, we can give some potentials for the insanely brave.

With Bitcoin, below $43,000 now permits reversal to around £37k with secondary, if broken, at a bottom of $31k. The visuals even make sense. Alternately, we can present a scenario with a trigger level at $51k which calculates with the potential of $54.5 with secondary, if exceeded, $60k and yet another high.

For Ethereum, below $1300 carries the potential of a visit to $1150 and hopefully a bounce. If broken, our secondary is pretty vile at a bottom around $570. The other side of the coin, if we take a positive viewpoint, allows for strength above $1780 to now bring recovery to £1930 with secondary, if exceeded, at $2271, an all time high.

Finally, Ripple XRP. Weakness next below the 0.27 level shall prove troublesome, allowing an initial 0.22 with secondary, if broken, down at 0.14. We cannot calculate below such a level. On a happier note, it need only exceed 0.47 to suggest an initial ambition of 0.60 with secondary, if bettered, a significant 0.74.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:50:40PM	BRENT	64.25									Success
10:53:09PM	GOLD	1806.21
10:54:51PM	FTSE	6627.34									‘cess
10:57:09PM	FRANCE	5783	5718	5691.5	5657	5761	5788	5793.5	5816	5766	‘cess
10:59:11PM	GERMANY	13881.91									Success
11:05:05PM	US500	3879									Success
11:07:53PM	DOW	31539
11:10:57PM	NASDAQ	13181									Success
11:13:31PM	JAPAN	29997	29920	29788.5	29565	30100	30100	30155.5	30325	29918	Success

23/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6625 points. Change of 0.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,400,811,010 a change of 24.64%

22/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6612 points. Change of -0.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,739,937,565 a change of 0.76%

19/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6624 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,689,261,003 a change of 15.24%

18/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6617 points. Change of -1.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,804,629,617 a change of -22.73%

17/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6710 points. Change of -0.56%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,511,824,336 a change of 35.06%

16/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6748 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,561,960,634 a change of -0.72%

15/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6756 points. Change of 2.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,276,757 a change of 0.88%

#Gold #SP500 Following a year when we’ve all enjoyed & endured the experience of online shopping, Sainsbury came top in a Which Report for online service whereas Aldi topped the list in the ‘value for money’ category. Needless to say, Aldi also flopped around a bit with customers tending ridicule their shop layout. But their prices were good, if you could find the products! Sainsbury, a presence since 1869 appear to have embraced this new fangled online experience rather more successfully than rivals and we’d hope to see this success mirrored in their share price.

 

So far, unfortunately, this seems not to be the case. Trading around 226p at time of writing, there’s a pretty firm suspicion near term weakness below just 224p shall promote reversals to an initial 211p. We’d hope for a bounce should 211p make itself known but warn, should such a price level break, we’d then hope for a rebound before our secondary of 188p.

However, perhaps the accolade suggesting Sainsbury, after 152 years, actually know what they’re doing will provide an effect on price movements but realistically at present, we need the share price above 250p to suggest the possibility of movement to an initial 267p with secondary, if exceeded, calculating at a visibly sane 300p eventually. We use the term “visibly sane” due to the high prior to the 2019 drop showing itself as an excellent level to produce a glass ceiling eventually.

Jubilee Metals (LSE:JLP) Following the stock market crash of 2009, there was little doubt Jubilee Metals share price was enthusiastically talked up (ramped) by certain folk in internet chat rooms and as always with this sort of nonsense, the gains eventually vanished, the share price finding a floor at the 1p level. For the last 5 years, the price has enacted spasmodic twitches but now, it feels like something genuine may be happening. This year, the price has outperformed all near term logic and there’s a strong suggestion gains next above 17p should continue growth toward an amazing 24p.

If exceeded, our longer term secondary calculates at 32p and as with our thoughts on Sainsbury above, this presents the sort of level where some hesitation can be expected. Obviously, there’s going to be a bunch of folk trapped since the 32p level appeared ten years ago and a lot of them will Bail At Break Even, bringing selling pressure. Additionally, another bunch of folk will glance at the chart and see the prior highs, assuming a problem exists at such a price level.

We’re aware we’re speculating on the price doubling from current, so perhaps worth doing some research. It needs fall below 10p to give early warning of panic.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:33:56PM	BRENT	65.02									Success
10:36:08PM	GOLD	1810	1788	1782	1771	1803	1812	1819	1829	1792	‘cess
10:37:55PM	FTSE	6595.36									‘cess
10:40:40PM	FRANCE	5748									‘cess
10:43:06PM	GERMANY	13924									‘cess
10:52:24PM	US500	3879.32	3863	3858	3824	3883	3902	3906.5	3921	3891	Success
10:54:11PM	DOW	31561									Success
10:56:51PM	NASDAQ	13228									Success
10:59:06PM	JAPAN	29986									‘cess

22/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6612 points. Change of -0.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,739,937,565 a change of 0.76%

19/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6624 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,689,261,003 a change of 15.24%

18/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6617 points. Change of -1.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,804,629,617 a change of -22.73%

17/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6710 points. Change of -0.56%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,511,824,336 a change of 35.06%

16/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6748 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,561,960,634 a change of -0.72%

15/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6756 points. Change of 2.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,276,757 a change of 0.88%

12/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6589 points. Change of 0.93%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,553,303,054 a change of 2.03%

#BrentCrude #DAX TV’s Jeremy Clarkson keeps stealing my Sunday evenings! Our preference is analysing the markets but the exception to the rule used to be sacrosanct, watching Clarkson & “Top Gear” on Sunday evening, delaying prep-work for the following weeks trading. This year, the guy has been doing it again, presenting “Millionaire” and making it watchable again. Like most folk, arrogance ensures the cheap questions are ignored in favour of making a cuppa but tonight, the very first question stopped me in my tracks. It literally never occurred knowing the layers of a cake could be important, especially as someone who has never eaten one. A peculiar allergy ensures I cannot even be in the same room when baking is going on.

With spiteful joy she’s waited years for, the ‘other half’ watched my struggle with choices and logic, failing to give a correct answer before the contestant. As a result, I was mentally sent home without even £100…

 

It’s funny how the glaringly obvious can sometimes trip us all up. We mentioned in our last report, should Lloyds reach 26p, in our opinion it would provide an excellent point at which to catch a bounce. We also complained at the speed of movements and wondered if there was any chance of the price ever getting there. This now appears extremely unlikely, so for those holding their breath, we’d suggest (almost) forgetting the potential.

Lloyds share price has finally exceeded the Blue downtrend, still not bursting with optimism, but a severe drop looks rather less likely.

Instead, the share has once again tangled with our 38p trigger level, again forcing us to wonder is happier times are ahead.

The arguments are starting to pile up; fewer Covid mortalities, reduced infection rates, lots of speculation regarding easing Lockdowns, school return dates mentioned. Thus far, the added benefit of vaccines give a lot of hope for a return to something approaching normality. We wonder if ‘Vaccine Passports’ shall become the norm in the hospitality industry in the year ahead, despite the Government rejecting the idea?

 

For Lloyds, if we regard all this as “glaringly obvious”, an improvement in their share price (almost) must happen and visually above 40p now looks key. In such an event, price recovery toward an initial 45p is now expected with secondary, if exceeded, at 50p. We can calculate the potential of 55p as a third level target, suspecting this may prove an issue. Prior to everything hitting the Covid fan in February 2020, there was some sort of issue going on between 55 & 60p, making us strongly suspect a Big Picture glass ceiling awaits, should such a level make itself known.

If everything intends go cake shaped for Lloyds, the share price now needs close below 36p to justify panic.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:56:05PM	BRENT	62.17	61.55	61.16	60.44	62.98	63.32	63.725	64.45	62	‘cess
9:57:52PM	GOLD	1784.94
10:10:59PM	FTSE	6601
10:13:14PM	FRANCE	5764									‘cess
10:15:09PM	GERMANY	13945
10:16:51PM	US500	3901.27	3893	3881.5	3876	3922	3934	3949	3971	3904
10:19:28PM	DOW	31485									Shambles
10:21:58PM	NASDAQ	13578
10:24:42PM	JAPAN	30161

19/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6624 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,689,261,003 a change of 15.24%

18/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6617 points. Change of -1.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,804,629,617 a change of -22.73%

17/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6710 points. Change of -0.56%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,511,824,336 a change of 35.06%

16/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6748 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,561,960,634 a change of -0.72%

15/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6756 points. Change of 2.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,276,757 a change of 0.88%

12/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6589 points. Change of 0.93%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,553,303,054 a change of 2.03%

11/02/2021 FTSE Closed at 6528 points. Change of 0.06%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,442,915,422 a change of -20.73%