#Dax #BrentCrude Today, it’s March and we’re already seeing some early signs of spring. One odd feature was late this year, the traditional “Running of The Frogs” event here in Argyll, Scotland. This (completely unknown) series of evenings has countless thousand frogs hopping across the shore road from the waters edge, presumably where they hibernate over winter. Within the following week, puddles in the forests are full of frog spawn. Traditionally, the earlier the migration, the better the summer!
Frog Thinking goes like this; “Better wake up and get to a puddle or pond now as everything will dry up pretty soon.”
Therefore, the start of February will sometimes see the road lined with flattened frogs, motorists completely unaware they’ve just driven over a (usually) reliable weather forecaster. Unfortunately, this great migration has been late this year and it tends suggest spring shall be wet, making us forget our usual hope for May & June providing the best months of a Scottish summer. Tonight, the frogs are massing, looking like leafs on a dark road surface. Early March frog mayhem on the road outside shall not give great ambition for a dry year ahead.
Another sign of things changing – a bit – has been Barclays. Announcing resumption of their dividend (only 1p/share) it was a fairly lacklustre sign of things returned to ‘normal’ but despite their mention of losses in the last full year, the company share price has risen a solid 10% since their results announcement. We’ve a couple of reasons to believe this rise shall prove important for the longer term.
Three weeks ago, when we reviewed Barclays (link), we’d given criteria for a price rise to 160.5p. This was achieved, even exceeded, and the share managed to close above the target level twice last week. For us, this ticks a box to justify longer term optimism.
Secondly, the chart has a Blue downtrend which dates back to 2007. Despite some dramatics this year, the share price has now cleared this downtrend, again giving some excuse for optimism. Next above 166p allows us to calculate the potential of continued growth to 181p with secondary, if exceeded, working out at a pretty solid looking 190p. The secondary effectively matches the high of the share price before the price caught the Covid-19 bug almost exactly a year ago. Common sense alone suggests the risk of hesitation at such a level.
For it all to go horribly wrong, Barclays share price needs now actually close a session below 140p. To be fair, closure even below 155p would now give early warning of some alarm.
Hopefully our optimism isn’t as misplaced as a frog hopping across the main road outside, a night, with no lights or even a dayglo frog jacket.
FUTURES
| Time Issued | Market | Price At Issue | Short Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Long Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Prior |
| 9:25:21PM | BRENT | 64.51 | 64.15 | 63.87 | 62.89 | 65.5 | 65.73 | 66.255 | 66.94 | 64.25 | ‘cess |
| 2:12:12PM | GOLD | 1735 | Success | ||||||||
| 2:01:13PM | FTSE | 6500 | Success | ||||||||
| 2:05:31PM | FRANCE | 5709 | |||||||||
| 2:10:11PM | GERMANY | 13796 | 13714 | 13620 | 13569 | 13858 | 13877 | 13899.5 | 13987 | 13753 | ‘cess |
| 2:12:58PM | US500 | 3810.77 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 2:17:10PM | DOW | 30954 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 2:19:54PM | NASDAQ | 12913 | |||||||||
| 2:22:45PM | JAPAN | 29237 | Success |