#GoldFutures #SP500_futures Usually we like to present our trading scenario with trigger levels and targets. Unfortunately, Brent Crude is making a nuisance of itself, thanks to price behaviour during the last month. Despite the majority of traders not actually trading Brent in the commodities markets, it’s a pretty key indicator insofar the price of Brent will always effect the price of Major Oilers. And of course, if major oilers go up, so shall the FTSE.
In preparation for expensive times ahead, we’ve already taken action, buying 50 litres of diesel for our little red tractor, 1,200 litres of heating oil, and 10 litres of petrol for the chainsaw. To be honest, the diesel purchase was nothing to do with market forces, it’s just that time of year when grass will soon start to grow. And the heating oil purchase was a coincidence as the alternative was freezing while our miserable Scottish climate pretends to be heating up. Finally, petrol for the chainsaw is probably best filed under “fun”. Last years remnants of fuel were drained months ago, thanks to modern petrol actually having a shelf life, then it goes off! But invariably, any job involving the chainsaw tends be provide light relief, often concealing the hard work.
Now armed with 6+ months of fuel, the next chore is to actually service the garden machinery and this year, a solid effort shall be made during March to fix the brakes on the tractor. Invariably friends visiting want a go on it and with lockdown potentially ending, hopefully some chums invade. It’s perhaps asking a bit much to expect someone driving the tractor to engage reverse while moving forward. The brakes simply do not work!
February witnessed Brent climb from 55 dollars through to our previous “market high” target of 65 dollars. The climb was pretty remorseless, taking the product above and below our target level from December last year (Link). As per our usual custom, we’d not given a 3rd target level but there’s little doubt, despite the potential of some near term reversals, Brent crude should continue its climb.
The product needs reverse below $48 to cancel our current optimistic scenario.
Our next target level for Brent looks like $68.5 with secondary, when exceeded, at $74.5. We fully expect the secondary target of $74.5 to experience some stutters, if only due to a prior high in 2019. Unusually, we can give a third target level at 95 dollars, visually a massive jump and one we suspect unlikely on the current cycle.
If searching for near term indications of weakness, below $63 looks pretty certain to drip down to $61.70. If broken, continual reversal to a bottom, hopefully, of $57 is expected.
FUTURES
| Time Issued | Market | Price At Issue | Short Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Long Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Prior |
| 9:59:03PM | BRENT | 63.28 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 10:05:50PM | GOLD | 1725 | 1717 | 1678 | 1646 | 1743 | 1747 | 1761 | 1767 | 1732 | Success |
| 10:09:12PM | FTSE | 6610 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 10:12:18PM | FRANCE | 5807 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 10:26:26PM | GERMANY | 14037 | Success | ||||||||
| 10:28:56PM | US500 | 3905 | 3836 | 3810.5 | 3776 | 3870 | 3915 | 3958 | 4012 | 3868 | ‘cess |
| 10:31:08PM | DOW | 31579 | Success | ||||||||
| 10:38:14PM | NASDAQ | 13315 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 10:40:28PM | JAPAN | 29901 | ‘cess |