Trends And Targets

#SP500 #NK225 Our monthly visit to a favourite Banking Sector candidate, Lloyds, once again permitted self congratulation for a prior report. (Link Here) Alas, the next few sessions are liable to prove “interesting”, thanks to the potentials if the price manages to stumble below 56p. We moaned, previously, of banking shares dancing to Brexit tunes and this remains the case.

In fact, if we review the overall banking sector, FTSE:NMX8250, at time of writing it’s trading at 3781 and is flirting with some fairly nasty dangers. It only requires weakness below 3730 to trigger some misery down to an initial 3600 with secondary, when broken, at a bottom (hopefully) of 3212 points. Crucially, similar to Lloyds, it has not yet broken its final immolation trigger, so hope remains.

In the case of Lloyds, below 56p now calculates with travel down to 51.8 next. This ambition coincides with a long term uptrend which implies a bounce can be expected, should such a level make an appearance. Our secondary, if 51.8 breaks, is down at 46.8p, a point where there’s almost a requirement for a rebound. The “however” is quite dangerous, thanks to 46.8 taking the share into a region where the Big Picture computes with 41p as a pretty major expectation, along with an eventual journey down to 26p.

Our suspicion is we shall witness 51.8p eventually and this should co-incide with the overall sector at the 3600 level. And hopefully, everything should rebound.

At present, we require Lloyds to exceed 62.25p as this should calculate with a genuine bounce, propelling the share into a region where an initial 67p is supposed to be real. According to the tea leaves, our secondary of 71.25p risks being game changing for the longer term, allowing some fairly impressive (and unheard of for nearly 10 years) longer term target levels.

For now, while we can hope 51.8p shall be “it”, historical behaviour in the banking sector makes us fear the worst.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:28:35PM	BRENT	64.45
9:30:48PM	GOLD	1422.93									Success
9:41:09PM	FTSE	7396									Shambles
9:42:50PM	FRANCE	5494.7
9:44:58PM	GERMANY	12188.79									‘cess
9:47:02PM	US500	2918.29	2915	2913	2896	2937	2937	2942	2951	2920	Success
9:49:46PM	DOW	26558.5									‘cess
9:52:07PM	NASDAQ	7601.75									Success
9:54:34PM	JAPAN	21094	21058	20994	20787	21188	21223	21253	21318	21112	‘cess

25/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7422 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,312,471,944 a change of 3.25%

#Gold #SP500 A bloke at B&Q (owned by Kingfisher) provided part of the reason many folk in the UK voted for Brexit. Buying a replacement WC turned into a headache with the discovery EU Regulations apparently intrude in the toilet. Modern loos, such as sold in B&Q and every other bathroom showroom I was dragged around, don’t flush properly. Everyone knows but no-one has addressed the issue.

The problem, apparently, came from Brussels and a demand we embrace “water saving”, enforced with a 4 litre or 6 litre flush. It would be difficult to find a plumber who approves of these modern designs and a need to flush the things 2 or 3 times. Thanks to Google, it was quickly established our existing loo had a 13 litre flush and we’d be daft replacing it. The bloke at B&Q was convinced dodgy toilets formed a convincing reason for people voting to leave!  It can be safely assumed I did not go into last weekend with the expectation of learning about toilet flushes. It is even the case regulations only apparently effect new installations, whereas the bulk of sales will be for folk upgrading existing installations of bathroom furniture.

Surely, the Daily Mail must embrace a headline about “Brussels and A Busted Flush!”

We’re not entirely convinced B&Q’s choice of stocking EU Approved WC’s is entirely the reason for their falling share price, despite the company not stocking a single WC which matches UK slightly less restrictive regulations. For now, it appears our downstairs loo is fated to remain with its peculiar square seat design, thanks to a company called Shires with a sense of design humour.

It appears weakness now below 201p on Kingfisher shares should flush the price down to 184p next, a point at which we’d expect some sort of rebound. But take extreme care, should 184p break as it could easily drain down to 166p next. Worse, from a Big Picture perspective, the share price is already trading in a region where negative news could drip the value down to a bottom, hopefully, at 142p in a blink.

For any near term bounce to prove viable, the share price requires exceed 222p to enter a cycle toward an initial 235p. If exceeded, we’ll be suitably convinced bottom is “in” (for now) and hope, if 235p bettered, our calculation of secondary at 249p shall prove valid.

Finally, apparently there is a vibrant market for 2nd hand toilets with “proper” flush capability, though it does not come close to matching cross border illicit trade between USA (regulated toilets) and Canada (unregulated toilets)…

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:46:44PM	BRENT	64.23									‘cess
9:50:20PM	GOLD	1418.61	1400	1395	1386	1412	1422	1430	1438	1411	‘cess
10:03:45PM	FTSE	7406									‘cess
10:07:11PM	FRANCE	5509.5
10:09:06PM	GERMANY	12257
10:10:59PM	US500	2947.02	2943	2935.5	2926	2956	2956	2959.5	2965	2945
10:13:06PM	DOW	26747.5
10:16:33PM	NASDAQ	7729.62
10:18:36PM	JAPAN	21201

 

24/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7416 points. Change of 0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,145,390,114 a change of -65.74%

Bitcoin and Last Week Reviewed. The stunt we pulled with Gold last Monday was pleasing to say the least. If it now betters 1398, then an initial 1401 still looks possible but realistically, it could power on to 1416. Tuesdays GBPUSD has proven boring with nothing major triggering YET. As for Wednesdays Barr Group, thoughts of 860p and a bounce remain valid.

Berkeley Group Holdings, reviewed on Thursday, thus far failed do anything of interest but keeping a weather eye for the longer term, along with 2680 making an appearance, should not be time wasted.

Friday and our analysis of the FTSE successfully produced an initial 26 point drop, breaking our initial target on the first surge and therefore making our secondary at 7365 hopefully capable of provoking some sort of bounce. It was rather annoying waiting from 2pm until 4:25pm before the initial drop completed. Suddenly, as if shocked out of its boredom, the FTSE indeed provided a short lived bounce back to the 7399 level, then dropped further for the final two minutes of trade. It results in a suspicion Monday shall commence the session slightly down, hopefully bouncing from our 7365 level. But should 7365 break, we do not expect the FTSE to achieve an UP day. Quite the converse.

As for Bitcon, it’s now showing surprising potentials as movement above 11,216 calculates with 12,070 as an initial target. If bettered, secondary computes at 13,286 longer term. (Or sometime later that day!) For it all to go completely wrong, Bitcoin requires weaken below 8,800 as this will tend nullify all longer term ambitions on the immediate cycle. Instead, it opens a trapdoor to 6,916 initially with secondary a return to 4,058.

For now, we suspect 12,070 shall prove capable of providing some hesitation.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
5:58:04PM	BRENT	64.75	63.75	63.55	63.01	64.96	65.21	65.64	65.75	63.4	‘cess
6:08:02PM	GOLD	1399.83									‘cess
6:09:55PM	FTSE	7364.02									‘cess
6:11:35PM	FRANCE	5505									Shambles
6:19:20PM	GERMANY	12250	12244	12202	12123	12328	12423	12436.5	12501	12302	Success
6:21:05PM	US500	2944.67
6:23:18PM	DOW	26670									Shambles
6:30:17PM	NASDAQ	7720
6:32:20PM	JAPAN	21177									‘cess

21/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7407 points. Change of -0.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 15,020,555,718 a change of 133.04%

20/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7424 points. Change of 0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,445,371,842 a change of -2.22%

#DOW #CAC40 Rocketman, A Snake, and a Fast Birthday also feature. Plus, of course, some updated thoughts on Gold. But to deal with Rocketman first, the movie threw into sharp relief just how superior the recent Freddy Mercury film was. Unfortunately for Elton John, his brilliant soundtrack didn’t stop us getting bored and leaving early. Perhaps it will be better on telly.

Another of this weeks highlights was ‘The Snake in The Grass’ (nothing to do with the Conservative Leadership) Charging around the lawn on a little red tractor, panic ensued at the sight of a silvery white snake about 2 feet long winding its way across my path. Even from the illusory safety of a tractor seat, absolute terror ensued as snakes are uncommon in Scotland to say the least. Faced with the choice of mincing the beast or running away, selecting reverse and spinning the big rear wheels was the only consideration. Later, from the comfort of a computer, it became plain the snake was actually a slow-worm which is not actually a worm. Instead, it’s a legless lizard. Now, I need explain the trenches in the lawn, dug in panic reverse mode.

To remain whimsical, marriage is often built on a sense of humour and this weekend, a joke which smouldered for 10 years has become available. It is Mrs T&T’s birthday, her very last chance to have a party which lasts under a minute. Obviously, it is her 50 second birthday, giving her 50 seconds to answer treasure hunt questions, then another 50 seconds to find a batch of joke gifts. She’ll hate it.

It has been “that” sort of week and who wants to read about the markets all the time anyway!

As for Gold, we started the week warning of the dangers if the metal bettered 1,357 dollars. It did, rapidly achieving our initial target of 1,385. In fact, using our argument which favours watching the initial surge, at 2am the price shot above 1,385 for a few moments, hitting 1,394 before rapidly falling back to the 1,385 level. This proved we were watching the correct trend, signalling movement next above 1,394 remains with the ambition of 1,401 next. If bettered, our secondary calculation is now at 1,416 dollars.

The FTSE has experienced another oddball week, going into Friday roughly 75 points higher than it started the week. Compare this with the 4x larger DOW and its 600 point volatility. Or the 1.6x larger DAX and its near 300 point range. The FTSE is failing to impress with any real strength, constantly underperforming compared with other markets. Perhaps it’s a symptom of the UK’s fragility, effectively leaderless and about to step into a new trading environment. Talking to folk who trade the markets, there is a broad expectation of severe trouble coming to the FTSE. If this is indeed the case, it shall prove worth watching for an illogical upward surge taking place first as the market rarely gives free gifts. We’d be very suspicious if any FTSE movement above 7,650 was capable of sticking. Quite the converse as a drop should follow.

Near term, below 7425 looks capable of an initial 7399 points. If broken, our secondary calculates at 7365 pints and hopefully some sort of bounce. There are longer term implications of any break of 7365 as the market would be viewed as entering a cycle down to 7247 points. The tightest stop looks like 7461 points.

Above 7461 should prove capable of an initial 7493 points. If bettered, secondary is at 7527 points. Stop can be 7425.

#Gold #Nasdaq Sometimes, the stock market loves its little “gotcha” moments and we suspect Berkeley share price is about to illustrate this nasty trend. After announcing a slump in annual profits, a bunch of traders doubtless expected the share price to follow the trajectory of a brick dropped from a height. Instead, the share closed the session down just 0.2%!

Does this mean Berkeley’s share price is concealing inherent strength, especially as it reached a high of 3777 during the session, closing at 3552 eventually?

We really doubt it, instead suspecting the market has simply delayed the drop until sufficient number of investors reassure themselves Berkeley is “safe”, a concept reserved for the ridiculously naive when discussing share prices. Instead, the suspect is shall prove worth watching for movement below 3441 anytime soon as this should drive the price down to an initial 3352p. Secondary, if (when) broken, should be 3221p and hopefully a bounce. Unfortunately, there are some fairly severe longer term implications should 3221 break as it will take the price into “lower low” territory, as a consequence forcing us to accept a calculation of 2680p as the eventual bottom ambition.  This would also match the uptrend since the start of price recovery from 2009’s fun and games.

It’s pretty amazing we still must regard an event 10 years ago as the benchmark for current share price movements.

For BKG to signal it’s climbing out of trouble, the price currently needs exceed BLUE on the chart, 3890p at present.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:56:38PM	BRENT	61.75									‘cess
10:04:45PM	GOLD	1361	1341	1334.5	1325	1353	1363	1364.5	1375	1347	‘cess
10:07:00PM	FTSE	7411.77
10:20:11PM	FRANCE	5525									‘cess
10:27:43PM	GERMANY	12317									Shambles
10:39:20PM	US500	2926.77									‘cess
10:41:16PM	DOW	26506									‘cess
10:43:28PM	NASDAQ	7668.49	7600	7564	7523	7659	7687	7693	7724	7605
10:45:17PM	JAPAN	21327									‘cess

 

19/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of -0.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,591,737,284 a change of -3.5%

#Nasdaq #CAC40 Our report last Sept on the Scottish soft drink manufacturer (link here), proved rather successful, despite them gaining notoriety due to reduced sugar content of their staple product. In fact, the share price has proved capable of ridiculing the doomsayers. Even today, the tweet below appeared from some amiable fanatic who’d stockpiled a supply!

When we last reviewed A G Barr, we’d postulated 867p as a viable long term target and this ambition was achieved – and significantly bettered – during last month. The situation now is mildly interesting with movement now above 980 suggesting some continued growth toward 1027p next. If bettered, secondary is a longer term 1092p. Of course, we’ve got a “however”.

Our prior prediction of 867p has been exceeded but from a Big Picture viewpoint, it was a pretty major target level and one we’d expect some volatility around. Rather curiously, only now does it appear some collywobbles are appearing as below 906p is expected to enter slight reversal down to 860p next. We would expect a rebound at 860p, if only due to the market viewing the share price as “back-testing” (a nonsense term) the prior target level. Should 860p break, then we can calculate our secondary at 810p and visually, this is a point where it really must fizz a bit.

For now, we suspect some reversals are coming today the 860p, prior to another stab upward. Quite oddly, this is still showing a longer term aspiration up at 1377, an ambition which has remained valid since the price was in the 5 pound range!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:34:39PM	BRENT	61.74									‘cess
10:36:57PM	GOLD	1347.25									Success
10:39:27PM	FTSE	7449.98									Success
10:42:59PM	FRANCE	5507.2	5437	5407	5363	5493	5510	5525.5	5579	5438	Success
10:44:14PM	GERMANY	12344.24									Success
10:46:27PM	US500	2921.07									Success
10:49:25PM	DOW	26493.7									Success
10:51:34PM	NASDAQ	7643.37	7508	7499.5	7436	7617	7691	7736	7782	7563	Success
10:54:57PM	JAPAN	21244									Success

18/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7443 points. Change of 1.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,830,875,186 a change of 34.03%

#Gold #SP500 At time of writing, 1.2540. It has been a few months since we reviewed this. The pairing attempted to strengthen and then failed. Now, it’s hovering with some intent toward weakness. We’re amazed to report, despite Brexit nonsense, Tory Leadership nonsense, or a US President visiting, nothing important has actually happened so far but… there are risks.

The big problem immediately is at 1.2525.   Travel below such a level now calculates with the potential of a visit to 1.240 next. Secondary, if broken, comes in at 1.2222 along with a fairly confident looking rebound potential. However, the big picture takes issues, should 1.222 break for any reason as the uptrend in RED since 1984 risks being ignored in favour of continual reversal down to 1.1677.

To be blunt, if it were a share, we’d already assume the intention will be 1.1677 as some sort of “bottom”, due to three quite distinct scenario pointing at this potential target. Thankfully, the pairing does not require a great deal of work to rubbish such a prospect, needing only better 1.310 (BLUE) to spoil all three trading calculations. In plain English, for those with horribly deep pockets, 1.310 is your stop loss level.

Surprisingly, there’s a tighter indicator which will suggest some relativistic strength is present. The pair need recover above 1.280 where we calculate movement toward 1.30 is possible. This creates the situation where even above 1.30 should give early warning it is “probably” not about to drop off a cliff.

For now, we suspect it’s heading to 1.1677, hopefully as bottom. Unfortunately, we do have numbers further down the line.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:50:35PM	BRENT	60.42
9:52:24PM	GOLD	1339.84	1332	1327	1316	1344	1344	1347	1352	1336	‘cess
9:54:09PM	FTSE	7374								7332
9:55:38PM	FRANCE	5393.7								5367	Success
9:58:01PM	GERMANY	12094.66								12072
9:59:55PM	US500	2892.42	2882	2879	2872	2897	2900	2911.5	2927	2886
10:11:09PM	DOW	26142
10:12:37PM	NASDAQ	7538
10:14:53PM	JAPAN	21139

 

17/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7357 points. Change of 0.16%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,096,653,983 a change of -8.18%