#Gold #SP500 With an interesting level of discretion, the FTSE has spent the last week scaring us silly! The problem was fairly simple. The market had broken the RED line on the chart below, moving the index into the land of pestilence, famine, dinosaurs, and rabid politicians. And then it changed…
Our thinking last week suggested a drop coming to 7106 points, something the market actually achieved on the Monday. Worse, it even broke below this level, eventually opting to rebound from 7079 points. The entire charade of reversals was played out in just 46 minutes, after the market opened for trading. In the week since, continued small daily gains now make us wonder if the FTSE just did a “gotcha” on those folk taking short positions, once they’ve assessed the competence of our countries leadership. The point at which the FTSE closed the day on Friday has tended, if we apply our usual logic, spoil any immediate drop potential.
Here’s the thing – to quote Simon Cowell. (when he struggles to find new ways to avoid saying “deluded”)
The RED line on the chart, the uptrend since the start of January, is presently at 7250 points.
Alternately, the trend from the market lows of December 2018 is presently at 7258 points.
The FTSE closed Thursday at 7259 points.
If the market were a share, we’d be inclined to regard the drop to 7079 points on Monday as “fake” and instead, opt to take a more optimistic view for immediate future.
Near term, FTSE movements above 7285 should attempt recovery to an initial 7313 points. Our secondary, if bettered, calculates at 7392 points and given the pace of market movement recently, it’s unlikely to come along at a rush. The tightest stop loss level appears to be pretty wide at 7228 points.
There are some interesting potentials if 7228 breaks at travel down to 7197 appears likely. If broken, secondary is at 7151 points.
Finally, there is a further important facet of the recent drop to 7107. The market proved the ruling uptrend can be broken, meaning any future break below 7107 is liable to promote a swift, almost 300 point, drop to the 6800’s.
Have a good weekend; it’s the Montreal F1 Weekend and almost time for Ferrari to ritually humiliate themselves again.
|
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
|
10:00:21PM |
BRENT |
62.03 |
59.95 |
59.24 |
62.18 |
62.445 | |||||
|
10:01:59PM |
GOLD |
1335.99 |
1326 |
1320.5 |
1340 |
1344 | |||||
|
10:10:36PM |
FTSE |
7266 |
7210 |
7200 |
7285 |
7312 | |||||
|
10:17:04PM |
FRANCE |
5281 |
5258 |
5237.5 |
5335 |
5342.5 |
Success | ||||
|
10:19:44PM |
GERMANY |
11971.02 |
11893 |
11850 |
12012 |
12081 |
Shambles | ||||
|
10:28:22PM |
US500 |
2840.62 |
2819 |
2807 |
2845 |
2851.25 |
‘cess | ||||
|
10:33:04PM |
DOW |
25700 |
25498 |
25374.5 |
25805 |
25853 |
Success | ||||
|
10:35:12PM |
NASDAQ |
7264.74 |
7199 |
7159 |
7294 |
7318 |
‘cess | ||||
|
10:37:03PM |
JAPAN |
20843 |
20734 |
20664 |
20907 |
20946 |