Trends and Targets for 5/12/2018

Ted Baker #CAC40 #SP500 This lot have a bit of a problem. With the share price recently carrying out experiments with gravity (gravity won!)  it finds itself in the unenviable position of closing below the uptrend since 2009. We’re not yet convinced it has kicked open the gates of hell though.

First, there’s the problem at 1370p. To convince it was entering a fairly serious drop cycle, the price needed actually close a session below 1370p. As it completed the session on the 4th at 1420, despite an intraday low of 1312, it fails to tick this particular box. Instead, there’s instead the “threat” any trend break shall prove short lived with a miracle recovery ensuing.

However, there is a very real risk of traffic now below 1312 allowing for travel down to an initial 980p. If broken, secondary calculates at 582p.

The interesting thing about the secondary is it’s the lowest we can calculate. Quite literally, we cannot compute anything sane below this level – quite a high number in the grand scheme of things and one which probably reflects the esteem the market holds the company in.

Should we take the stance of the trend break proving a mistake, the price need only better 1470 to enter a near term cycle to a useless 1509p. The key element about such a target will be, if bettered, there’s a good chance it has bottomed for now, thus allowing for 1682p.

At the 1682p level, things become really strange with a taste of “gotcha, suckers”. Essentially anything beyond such a level looks like entering a longer term cycle to 24 quid.

For now, as the chart inset shows, it’s in dangerous territory but despite opportunity, has not yet confirmed a readiness to fall.

FUTURES

4/12/2018 FTSE Closed at 7022 points. Change of -0.57%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,901,119,671 a change of 9.83%