Trends And Targets

#DOW #NK225 Once again, it’s that time of year when TV shows video of 2 towers falling and (for some growing up even by the 1970’s), reminds of the day terrorism stole the mystery and magic of flying. A temptation to cover Boeing today was abandoned (heading up to $411). Instead, we favour VW, famed for the Bentley Continental GT…

Okay, VW make a few other things but enjoying being a passenger in a Bentley GT for an hour or so revived a memory of actually liking cars. Nowadays, it’s tempting to treat them as functional boxes (or if you own a Ford C-Max, non-functional boxes).

Our current transport for the two Golden Retrievers is a Toyota RAV4, a machine which doesn’t seem to break down, is fast, quiet, amazingly economical, handles, and pulls an occasional boat trailer. There’s absolutely nothing “special” about it whereas for ‘just a few pounds‘ more, the dogs could enjoy the rear seats of a Bentley coupe. The more thought given, it’s possible dogs are being abused by NOT being driven around in a Bentley!

The wheels came off this particular dream, when discussing the cost of servicing. Or even tyres and door mirrors, both frequent casualties of the road network here in Argyll. And to get real, a Bentley is not cheap to buy anyway.

VW’s share price has been languishing since their “Diesel Scandal” but there are some signs recovery may be coming. In the event the share manages to trade above 163 Euro, we calculate an initial ambition up at 177. In the event the price exceeds this level, our secondary comes in at 198 Euro and visually this will prove game changing for the longer term. On the chart below, VW’s downtrend in Blue defines daily closing prices, rather than daily highs as this appears how the share is being mapped. This being the case, we can even allow for optimism should the price of VW actually close a session above 159.75 Euro anytime soon. This will hopefully provide reliable early warning for a period of uphill acceleration.

Of course, there’s a fly in the ointment with this scenario as the price need only slump below 143 to give concern as this shall place the share at risk of 117 and below.

For now, thanks to an hour in a Bentley, we’re feeling kindly toward VW.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:28:29PM	BRENT	62.25									‘cess
9:30:00PM	GOLD	1487.02									‘cess
9:40:05PM	FTSE	7284.6									‘cess
9:43:28PM	FRANCE	5590									‘cess
9:46:45PM	GERMANY	12297									Success
9:48:38PM	US500	2978.17									‘cess
9:52:04PM	DOW	26892	26711	26651.5	26565	26860	26911	26938.5	26971	26770	‘cess
9:55:04PM	NASDAQ	7814.24									Success
9:56:24PM	JAPAN	21460	21289	21227	21145	21377	21473	21500.5	21571	21309	‘cess

10/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7267 points. Change of 0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,671,153,383 a change of 53.94%

#Gold #SP500 As we cower in our homes in the UK, a country where anarchy is expected, thanks to Parliament being suspended, the rule of law ignored, our thoughts turn to precious metals and the need to put something aside for a rainy day. Historically, we’ve regarded Silver with distrust but it appears something may finally be happening.

If we’re reading the numbers correctly, should Silver now exceed just 19.80 dollars, we should anticipate growth to an initial 20.5 dollars. Whilst we quickly concede this isn’t particularly interesting, in the event of the metal managing to actually close a session above 20.5, continued travel to a secondary of 23 calculates as very probable. Above this point, it gets a little irrational as there’s very little to hinder rapid acceleration to 29 dollars.

Worth pointing out is an unpleasant facet of Silver.

Historically, price movements against the metal were capable of making Bitcoin look like a paragon of ethical behaviour. Visually, we’re fairly happy to project 23 dollars as it makes sense. As for the potential of acceleration to 29 dollars, the visuals hint this is possible but we’d warn, if such a journey happens quickly, it’s liable to be reversed even faster. Our distrust for Silver movements obviously adds to our bias but if collecting for a rainy day, it can be easy to get wet and catch a cold! The price of this metal needs above 35 US dollars before we’d abandon scepticism and hope for the future.

Finally, if it now melts below 17 dollars, hope for the immediate future vanishes. However, cheaper silver will doubtless fuel the supply of silver bullets, ensuring werewolves and vampires remain a rarity – at least outside UK politics.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:04:58PM	BRENT	62.34									‘cess
10:07:28PM	GOLD	1499.62	1497	1489	1476	1512	1515	1519.5	1527	1502
10:16:18PM	FTSE	7241.25									Success
10:18:22PM	FRANCE	5588.7
10:20:00PM	GERMANY	12226
10:21:51PM	US500	2978.87	2968	2961	2952	2980	2984	2989	2996	2975	Shambles
10:24:20PM	DOW	26842.7									Shambles
10:26:36PM	NASDAQ	7830.25									‘cess
10:31:05PM	JAPAN	21343									Success

9/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7236 points. Change of -0.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,983,141,484 a change of -2.48%

#Dax #Brent With thousands of BA pilots getting bolshy over salaries, one can only speculate how many will manage find themselves “stranded” in exotic destinations as they suffer a couple of days aggressive strike action. At least we shall no longer be bothered by impoverished pilots, passing their cap down the cabin of short haul jets in the hope of getting a tip…

Or was that Burundi Airways?

The big question is, shall the company share price suffer?

We’re not entirely sure. For some time, the share has calculated with 390 as a drop target but the lowest achieved has been 410p, making us wonder if some real strength is evident. After all, if a drop fails make computed target, the implication is of something other than weakness. Near term, the share price need only exceed 441p as this apparently should provoke some price recovery to an initial (useless) 454p.  Importantly, should 454p be exceeded, the first box to suggest “bottom” get ticked, allowing some firmer climbs to 486p. Unusually, above 486p already permits us to calculate a third level target of 516p, along with the visual suggestion the price has regained the uptrend since 2012.

We’re not entirely convinced.

It feels more likely we should expect weakness below 410p to provoke a bounce from 390p. There is a great danger, if such a level breaks, as secondary calculates down at 317p and a point where it almost “must” rebound. Only with closure below 317p will this share become an extremely dangerous idea, thanks to “ultimate” bottom, the point we cannot fathom below, being at 99p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
3:18:59AM	BRENT	61.47	59.14	58.305	57.18	60.9	61.68	61.825	62.72	60	‘cess
3:20:53AM	GOLD	1507.2									Shambles
3:22:21AM	FTSE	7302
3:24:35AM	FRANCE	5592.2
3:28:07AM	GERMANY	12194	12109	12065	12018	12162	12206	12250	12284	12128	‘cess
2:52:46PM	US500	2982.67									‘cess
2:57:20PM	DOW	26833
3:00:46PM	NASDAQ	7860.87
3:04:42PM	JAPAN	21223

 

 

6/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7282 points. Change of 0.15%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,109,856,493 a change of -8.78%

#DAX #Nasdaq When reading a FT journalist comment about UK Politics never being so chaotic ‘since time began’, a brief memory of the 1970’s/80’s surfaced. Lots of General Elections, power cuts, food panics, fuel ration books, inflation, a mindset eventually leading to the widely known (rarely reported) ‘secret’ UK soldiers deployed, dressed as civilian policemen to “fight” striking miners in the earlier 1980’s. Somehow, our current shambles just isn’t the same!

The 70’s and early 80’s were “interesting times” with some real brinksmanship, unlike today, where we appear to be led by folk without gravitas or statesman like quality. But we do have a media, determined to pretend things have never been so bad as they are now. The purveyors of panic in the media must be experiencing a frisson of delight, if only due to the FTSE being DOWN 0.6% on a day the DOW was UP 1.6%.

In the last few days, the UK market has been challenging. But on Wednesday evening, we threw the toys from the pram and lied to ourselves with what was perhaps the most stupid logic available. The problem was, Thursday calculated as being an UP day on the FTSE. Everything pointed to this being possible. As a result, we adopted the stance of expecting a DOWN day! Our thinking was fairly basic, if UK market seems to be holding itself in place, neither accelerating upward nor downward. The logic by which upward travel was supposed to happen presented a scenario with continued growth possible to the 7700’s. Surely, a market which was awaiting guidance, would avoid this scenario and instead head downward.

It did.

Closing Thursday at 7265, there is now a problem if the FTSE makes its way below 7240. We can calculate travel down to an initial 7213 points with secondary, if broken, at 7174 points. Visually this appears not terribly traumatic and thus, there’s a reasonable chance of it happening.

However, if the market opts to remain marching on the spot, above 7289 is supposed to bring an initial 7313 points with secondary, if bettered, at 7338 points. As the chart below highlights, neither target level challenges the hiatus which has been the first few days of September. As a result, we suspect this shall be the route taken.

Above 7338 should prove interesting, breaking from trend and expecting 7390 points. We doubt it.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:11:06PM	BRENT	60.57									Success
10:12:57PM	GOLD	1519.7									Success
10:16:11PM	FTSE	7248.68									Shambles
10:19:13PM	FRANCE	5584									Success
10:22:17PM	GERMANY	12110	12066	12040	11999	12135	12140	12177.25	12284	12076	Success
10:24:38PM	US500	2969.72									Success
10:29:09PM	DOW	26686									Success
10:40:03PM	NASDAQ	7847	7730	7652.5	7576	7833	7882	7904	7915	7760	Success
10:43:31PM	JAPAN	21131									Success

5/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7271 points. Change of -0.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,601,988,154 a change of -7.64%

#CAC40 #Nasdaq As our ‘great nation’ crawls pitifully toward elections or referendum, it’s easy to remember we used to elect people who did stuff. A clear winner from the UK’s political incompetence has been polling companies, so we’re reviewing YouGov as their share price is reaching new highs.

At present, YouGov is showing itself as a little problematical!

The Big Picture had given a “maximum” target level of 622p and the share price has come within such an ambition level, certainly in the range of a “margin for error” so beloved by their statistical people. Near term, there’s little doubt continued traffic above 611p should attain the 622p level anyway but our puzzlement is due to a certain lack of market intervention at present. Essentially, if the market wished YouGov to exceed 622p we would expect the share price to be manipulated upward at the open.

Instead, the best witnessed during August were a couple of little nods upward, one by 3p and another by 4p. Neither movement is particularly substantial and makes us suspect, if 622p makes an appearance, we should expect some volatility around such a level, if only to generate future impetus for another rise. Above 622p and we can calculate a secondary, a very suspect 640p. With the best will in the world, we cannot calculate higher.

Of course, just because we run out of numbers does not mean a price cannot go higher. Our arrogance has its limits but generally, the market would already be stretching a price’ potentials by gapping it up at the open.

To indicate trouble ahead, YouGov needs trade below 539p, this risking reversal to an initial 506p. If broken, secondary is at 471p. For now, we suspect it shall prove to be a short opportunity for a while, if 622p appears. Visually, it will make sense if the price bounces between 545 and just above 600 for a while, at least until our wonderful leadership decide how firmly they wish to delay making another decision.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:49:29PM	BRENT	60.35									Success
9:51:09PM	GOLD	1552.99									‘cess
9:53:17PM	FTSE	7308.77
9:55:03PM	FRANCE	5537.2	5496	5489	5473	5526	5538	5548.5	5564	5505	Success
9:57:05PM	GERMANY	12043.49									Success
9:58:31PM	US500	2938.67									Success
10:01:49PM	DOW	26368
10:03:14PM	NASDAQ	7719.67	7641	7626.5	7593	7692	7727	7750.5	7808	7660	‘cess
10:05:14PM	JAPAN	20816									‘cess

 

4/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7311 points. Change of 0.59%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,065,530,501 a change of 23.23%

#FTSE #DOW There is a 100% certainty an asteroid shall impact the Earth. As for when, that’s the big question as no-one can put a timeframe on it. Similarly with Fevertree, we’re pretty comfortable the price is going to head down. But again, the issue of timeframes arises! Thankfully, we can ameliorate the proposal by examining the logic behind the drop potentials.

Firstly, there’s the RED uptrend. The share has broken below RED and failed to close above the trend in the period since trend break. This is not encouraging and suggests the presence of weakness.

Secondly, perhaps more importantly, two quite separate Big Picture arguments calculate with a drop potential of 1212p. This is quite a scary proposition, not only allowing the price to nearly half from current but worse, it will reside in a zone where negative news allows an ultimate bottom at 159p!

Third, there’s the horizontal trend, something we increasingly trust. It’s painted on the chart as a Purple Dashed Line. (It might be Magenta, we’re still arguing)

The horizontal trend is at 2073p. In the event Fevertree closes below this line, we are inclined to view this as the final straw, expecting it to trigger reversal to an initial 1632p with secondary, when broken, down at 1212p. We would expect some sort of bounce at the 1632p level but if it breaks, any rebound risks being short lived.

To get out of trouble, Fevertree requires a miracle recovery above the historical RED uptrend. At present, this is around 2517p. Such a movement allows growth to an initial 2966p with secondary, if bettered, a happier looking 3372p.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:15:34PM	BRENT	58.08									‘cess
10:17:51PM	GOLD	1547.55									Success
10:20:44PM	FTSE	7272.94	7206	7194	7153	7240	7317	7353	7403	7235
10:22:13PM	FRANCE	5472									Success
10:24:08PM	GERMANY	11926
10:26:13PM	US500	2904.82
10:33:57PM	DOW	26090	26058	25986.5	25797	26245	26286	26383.5	26521	26113	‘cess
10:35:49PM	NASDAQ	7615.14
10:37:48PM	JAPAN	20593

 

3/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7268 points. Change of -0.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,922,266,781 a change of 24.21%

Versarien PLC (LSE:VRS) Sometimes, the glaringly obvious takes a while. In a return to “chart basics”, Versarien price movements remind when trend lines might actually prove important. As the chart below highlights, at first glance it appears we’ve lost our minds.

Against most shares, a trend line is defined fairly easily. A downtrend maps the Highs of each session. An uptrend maps the Lows of each session. And generally, these are the only two trend lines which matter, when trying to make sense of price movements.

On the other hand, there’s Versarien.

When we review price movements since 2017, this share appears to be mapped by closing price with neither the High of the Day or the Low of the Day getting a look in. Hopefully the lower chart which simply shows Closing Prices serves to illustrate why this should prove interesting for the future. The implication is fairly straightforward. If Versarien closes above BLUE or below RED, it shall give a pretty solid clue the trend has actually changed with plans being made accordingly.

At present, closure below 100p would prove a poor show, taking the share into a region where reversal to an initial 94p makes sense. If broken, secondary is at 80p, along with the hope of a real bounce. But the problem for the longer term will come, if it ever closes below 80p. Such a calamity will open the door for reversal toward 54p initially with secondary an “ultimate” bottom of 21p. At present, nothing suggests this is possible.

The other side of the coin comes with closure above 125p as this should propel the price to an initial 133p. Secondary, if bettered, calculates at 153p.

For now, it’s messing around and simply avoiding showing direction.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:37:26PM	BRENT	58.55									‘cess
9:39:18PM	GOLD	1529.42	1519	1516	1510	1527	1532	1533.865	1538	1523
9:41:24PM	FTSE	7277.66									‘cess
10:15:53PM	FRANCE	5480.2
10:17:50PM	GERMANY	11947
10:19:51PM	US500	2899	2888	2881.5	2860	2919	2926	2942	2965	2904	Success
10:23:24PM	DOW	26177.6									Success
10:26:59PM	NASDAQ	7610.34									‘cess
10:29:16PM	JAPAN	20539									‘cess

2/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7281 points. Change of 1.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,962,859,546 a change of -28.76%