Taylor Wimpey, 13/11/2019

#DAX #CAC40 As we ‘enjoy’ the first snows of winter here in Argyll, thoughts turn to the building industry and a share which is supposed to be going up. Since 2015, Taylor Wimpey has stagnated, albeit sometimes with a useful trading range. Unlike my wifes conversation last night, price moves are about as interesting as a discussion about roof trusses.

Like most couples who’ve been married too long, we’ve absurd games to irritate the other. One is ‘The Word’, when hearing a word not commonly used and spending the rest of the day taking turns to fit it into conversation, regardless how mangled the original word gets. (Hey, we follow share prices, did you think we’ve an interesting life?)

Yesterdays unexpected word was ‘Karma’, prompting conversations about Chicken Karma, VW KarmaGhia, that Boy George song about a lizard, etc. Finally, a new low was achieved with mention of Frances spectacular La Camargue, neatly mispronounced as The Karmargue.

Once Asian markets had opened, it was bedtime. A sleepy voice said “Karma Sutra, I win.”

It’s worth taking a step back to visually ascertain “the problem” and in the case of Taylor Wimpey, there’s clearly an issue around the 2 quid level, 212p to be precise. Whether we call it a Glass Ceiling or a Horizontal Trend, the market appears to find something really offensive about the 212p level. Bizarrely, this chain of events started in December 2007 and creates a situation where “the Big Picture” suggests closure above 212p should trigger a longer term cycle which leads to an initial 308p. If bettered, our secondary calculation is at 410p.

Perhaps the strength of this potential is also why the market is refusing to let the share close in “safe” territory!

Near term, we shall be interested if TW manages above 178p as growth to an initial 188p looks possible. If bettered, secondary is at 198p. Importantly, above 198p will tend suggest another stab at the Glass Ceiling of 212p.

Unfortunately, that’s the end of the good news. More likely, we should fear weakness below 143p as this is liable to trigger reversal to an initial 134p. This, unfortunately, breaks the uptrend since 2011 and as a result, if 134p breaks, “bottom” is liable to make itself known by 93p hopefully.

We also need to mention 18p as “ultimate bottom” if politicians get their way and trash the countries economy.

Taylor Wimpey share price movements.
The Snowman Returns.
FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:50:27PM

BRENT

61.72

               

9:51:42PM

GOLD

1457.04

               

9:53:48PM

FTSE

7357.56

               

‘cess

10:15:40PM

FRANCE

5915.5

5897

5888.5

5874

5924

5933

5942

5969

5905

Success

10:18:34PM

GERMANY

13272

13185

13163

13115

13254

13288

13316

13384

13211

Success

10:20:39PM

US500

3091.57

               

Success

10:22:29PM

DOW

27694

               

‘cess

10:24:29PM

NASDAQ

8265.27

               

Success

10:27:06PM

JAPAN

23478

               

Success

 

12/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7365 points. Change of 0.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,738,598,465 a change of -2.15%

11/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7328 points. Change of -0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,864,681,253 a change of 22.23%

8/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7359 points. Change of -0.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,798,106,379 a change of -22.57%

7/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7406 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,615,818 a change of 30.74%

6/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,739,678,595 a change of -23.11%

5/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7388 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,164,114,046 a change of 25.79%

4/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7369 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,900,286,853 a change of -8.27%

 

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