Trends And Targets

#Gold #DOW Once we get past a company choosing to name themselves after a Star Wars character, it’s probably worth considering the future for a company invested in airlines, hotels, cruise ships, travel, and retail stores. In fact, if you cherry-picked a list of industries liable to be affected, due to Covid-19, TUI undoubtedly picked the winning hand. When it came to travel, they’re the equivalent of a smug child owning the best properties in a game of Monopoly.

As every family knows, there’s always the risk of the Monopoly board being knocked over ‘accidentally’ and without doubt, the Coronavirus looks pretty capable of providing a pretty firm nudge against TUI’s once confident future.

TUI, the largest travel and tourism company in the world, are a massive employer internationally (Their real name is Touristik Union International) and already warn 10% of their workforce face the chop as the organisation attempts to fight what they describe, with remarkable German understatement, “the greatest crisis the industry has ever faced”.

 

Obviously, we needed to update our thoughts on their share price.

 

On March 16th, the point at which the markets experienced the first solid Covid-19 drop, TUI managed to reach a low of 218 and hasn’t really recovered since. This was a share when the end of February brought hints of danger hitting the fan, the share price was trading over 8 quid. It has already suffered a disproportionate drop, one which it looks difficult to recover properly from. The situation now suggests weakness below 218p risks reversal to 167p and hopefully a proper rebound.

We’d warn, quite firmly, of caution should 167 break on the day of any further drop. A break below 167 risks future reversal to an “Ultimate Bottom” of 15p which visually looks ridiculous. We cannot calculate below 15p.

 

Despite the visuals suggesting TUI needs above 800p to escape this mess, even a nod above the prior post-drop high of 430 shall give considerable hope for a future. We cannot calculate below 15p and are not inclined to discount it. After all, some of the retail banks hit some pretty impressive (at the time) bottoms in 2009.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:51:45PM	BRENT	29.81
9:54:33PM	GOLD	1715.43	1698	1694	1686	1710	1718	1721	1730	1706	‘cess
9:57:06PM	FTSE	5867.57									‘cess
9:59:41PM	FRANCE	4329.7									Success
10:09:03PM	GERMANY	10534									Success
10:12:51PM	US500	2824.27									Success
10:16:19PM	DOW	23309	23055	22997	22477	23346	23433	23486	23696	23388	Success
10:21:08PM	NASDAQ	9021									Success
10:23:49PM	JAPAN	20140									Success

 

 

13/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5904 points. Change of -1.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,799,712,485 a change of 7.88%

12/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5994 points. Change of 0.93%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,375,886,438 a change of -7.35%

11/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5939 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,802,382,632 a change of 2.67%

7/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5935 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,651,341,668 a change of -8.8%

6/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5853 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,887,003 a change of 18.35%

5/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5849 points. Change of 1.67%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,236,126,168 a change of -8.24%

4/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5753 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,706,354,809 a change of 0%

 

 

#France #Nasdaq Purple Bricks share joins a large club of shares, where we produced analysis (link) expressing unhappiness about their share price. What we don’t “get” is all this misery dated from 2019, well before the pandemic. It was almost as if the markets were awaiting an accident to happen, any accident! Very strange indeed. Regardless the sector, we’d noticed many shares feeling like they needed an excuse to jump off a cliff. We’re pretty sure no-one expected Covid-19 with the level of reversals sometimes breaking below our worst case scenarios.

 

Purple Bricks had calculated with a Big Picture bottom potential of 31p, a price level briefly exceeded on March 18th of this year. We could not comfortably calculate a point below 31p and the single day which reached 22p before a rebound wasn’t noticed, thanks to the riotous panic pervading wider markets. Our usual argument, if a price exceeds a drop target then any bounce risks being short lived is perhaps not valid against Purple but we shall review the miserable side of life, despite the break below 31p proving (thus far) to be a fleeting event. We can now calculate below 31p, thanks to movements since March 18th.

Price movement now below 29p looks capable of a downward drift to 20p next with secondary, if broken, at a bottom of 12.5p. Once again, we can pronounce an “Ultimate Bottom” for Purple and it’s at 12.5p. We cannot calculate below this level.

 

However, care has been taken to respect the 31p level, despite the little hiccup in march. The situation now appears to suggest any recovery exceeding 47p should hear to an initial 63p. Visually, this makes some sense. If exceeded, the longer term secondary works out at 108p and theoretically returns the price to the level at the start of the current disaster. With an additional 50,000 deaths in the UK, could this be a dreadful reflection of a surprise influx of property about to appear on the market?

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:02:43PM	BRENT	29.83
10:04:47PM	GOLD	1703.16									Success
10:06:39PM	FTSE	5888									Sorry
10:19:25PM	FRANCE	4412.2	4412	4400.5	4345	4490	4463	4476.5	4498	4444	‘cess
10:22:05PM	GERMANY	10589.34									Success
10:24:11PM	US500	2843.67									Success
10:27:39PM	DOW	23577									Shambles
10:40:59PM	NASDAQ	9067	9046	9012.5	8900	9106	9107	9116.5	9140	9057	Shambles
10:43:33PM	JAPAN	20052									Success

12/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5994 points. Change of 0.93%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,375,886,438 a change of -7.35%

11/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5939 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,802,382,632 a change of 2.67%

7/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5935 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,651,341,668 a change of -8.8%

6/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5853 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,887,003 a change of 18.35%

5/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5849 points. Change of 1.67%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,236,126,168 a change of -8.24%

4/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5753 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,706,354,809 a change of 60.68%

1/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,551,403,027 a change of 0%

 

 

 

 

#Gold #DOW Last year #Halfords share was at 241p when we gave rational (link) which pointed at a bottom of 31p. It hit 49p and bounced, thankfully. We’ve always liked this share as it’s one generally worth a pre-summer glance. This year, we’re not being quite as gloomy as last, quite the opposite in fact. There’s a reasonable chance Halfords share price faces some upward exertion fairly soon.

Of course, part of the reason for this stems from our last report and the comment about “post-apocalyptic worlds”. In reality, we are talking about post-pandemic waistlines with lockdown doubtless producing an ever-growing number of households finding out their clothes no longer fit properly. The somewhat confused “back to work” announcement by the UK PM should really have given folk a few days in which to purchase new workwear as the nation hits a period akin to children returning to school following the summer break.

Perhaps Asda has missed a trick here and should produce a parody of their “Back to School” adverts, one which boasts the benefit of their stretchy 36-inch waistline ranges…

 

Wardrobe malfunctions aside, how’re things looking for Halfords?

 

We’re fairly optimistic about their future as the price has now closed above the Glass Ceiling which formed at 187p. In a normal world, we’d regard this as a reliable trigger level, one which should prove capable of movements now above 189p starts an uphill cycle to an initial 225p. If such a lofty ambition is exceeded, our longer term secondary calculates at a higher 283p. To be fair, we’re not quite as comfortable with the secondary 283p ambition, thanks to yet another Glass Ceiling, one lying in wait around the 265p level.

The share price requires to break Red, presently at 100p, to justify panic as an attempt at our 31p “ultimate bottom” shall look certain. For now, we’re impressed with the price, just not impressed with several pairs of jeans!

GOOGLEFINANCE("GOOG","price",TODAY()-30,TODAY())

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:08:17PM	BRENT	30.41									‘cess
10:10:29PM	GOLD	1698.22	1691	1688.5	1677	1700	1700	1702	1706	1696	‘cess
10:13:03PM	FTSE	5957.88									‘cess
10:15:19PM	FRANCE	4509.2									Success
10:17:53PM	GERMANY	10868									Shambles
10:20:32PM	US500	2926.07
10:22:24PM	DOW	24202.4	24061	23963.5	23768	24297	24364	24449.5	24579	24239	Success
10:24:48PM	NASDAQ	9290.24									Success
10:26:33PM	JAPAN	20482									Success

11/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5939 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,802,382,632 a change of 2.67%

7/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5935 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,651,341,668 a change of -8.8%

6/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5853 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,887,003 a change of 18.35%

5/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5849 points. Change of 1.67%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,236,126,168 a change of -8.24%

4/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5753 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,706,354,809 a change of 60.68%

1/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of -2.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,551,403,027 a change of -92.77%

30/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5901 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 49,092,686,584 a change of 0%

 

 

 

GOOGLEFINANCE(“GOOG”,”price”,TODAY()-30,TODAY())

GOOGLEFINANCE("GOOG","price",TODAY()-30,TODAY())

#Brent #SP500 #ASOS It feels odd, writing a report for a Holiday Monday which isn’t a holiday! The decision to move the May Monday holiday to a Friday for jingoistic reasons has proven both dangerous and confusing, creating an “any excuse for a street party” and demolished social distancing in some parts of the country.

It was written, at the start of the pandemic, infection levels were to depend on 2 things.

1. How dense the population was.
2. How dense the population was.

Pictures from several areas tended to confirm suspicions about both item 1 and item 2 above.

 

We’re now at the stage where a few high street stores are suggesting they shall NOT re-open all their branches, once the all-clear is sounded. Equally, the hospitality sector is warning many pubs, restaurants, and hotels will not open their doors again as their financial options and resources run dry. The additional factor, many people opting to remain cautious for a prolonged period will also hit business.

It was almost amusing, watching the UK PM give a speech which didn’t actually relate to the UK, only England in the main. Even worse, given against a backdrop of Her Majesty deciding to vanish from public view for the next two or three months regardless of anything her Prime Minister said. One suspects the Queen has access to better information than given by the UK Government.

 

Of course, all this strongly points at a future for online shopping, so we decided to glance at Fashion and Cosmetic retailer ASOS Plc, especially after spotting my wife using (aka playing with) their Augmented Reality facility.

At present, the future for ASOS looks pretty strong.

 

Currently trading around 2825p, the price now needs to exceed 2840 to enter a cycle to an initial 3278p. If exceeded, our secondary target level calculates at 3733p. Our secondary target level deserves some particular interest for the longer term.

Visually it implies an attempt at a Glass Ceiling level which has developed over the last year. Crucially, for the longer term, closure above 3733p looks like it shall assume a great deal of importance, allowing the price to potentially recover to 6128p without too much in the way of trauma.

ASOS share price needs to close below Red, presently 20 quid, to cause a large degree of panic and throw a spanner at our calculations.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
2:02:14PM	BRENT	31.16	29.26	28.16	26.85	30.55	31.25	31.555	32.14	30.43
2:13:38PM	GOLD										‘cess
3:26:17PM	FTSE										‘cess
3:48:45PM	FRANCE										Shambles
4:52:44PM	GERMANY										Success
4:55:04PM	US500	2937	2903	2891	2875	2925	2939	2953	2967	2907	Success
4:57:47PM	DOW										‘cess
4:59:05PM	NASDAQ										Success
5:01:15PM	JAPAN										Success

 

7/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5935 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,651,341,668 a change of -8.8%

6/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5853 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,887,003 a change of 18.35%

5/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5849 points. Change of 1.67%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,236,126,168 a change of -8.24%

4/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5753 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,706,354,809 a change of 60.68%

1/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of -2.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,551,403,027 a change of -92.77%

30/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5901 points. Change of -3.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 49,092,686,584 a change of 648.68%

29/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 6115 points. Change of 2.64%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,557,213,009 a change of 3.88%

 

 

#Brent #DOW The decision to move the first May Monday holiday to a Friday, made before Covid-19 became a thing, has produced a trading week for the markets which felt strange. Essentially, in addition to utterly insane conditions, the #FTSE has suffered a week deserving of the term; ‘Demob Happy’. Thankfully, we managed to notice the looming Bank Holiday, shuffling our popular FTSE for FRIDAY report forward a day.

It’s probably worth noting this week has seen the UK index fall below the uptrend established, since the initial Covid-19 drop. We wonder if a further sharp reversal will occur, should the Financial Times updated mortality report gain attention. Discovering our country issued nearly 43,000 more death certificates than ‘normal’ during March and April provided a platform for a truly horrific set of numbers. It ensured the UK took the leaderboard rather convincingly for Europe, when the same counting method was applied. Surprisingly, Israel who didn’t hesitate to employ mobile phone tracing to track and trace the infected somehow managed to experience a drop in deaths! Norway and South Africa also experienced similar.

With a final nod to the FT’s addiction to death, across the 21 countries for which they collated mortality data, there were 182,000 more deaths than expected during the period surveyed. This number is 64% higher than the total being reported as “Covid-19” in the period!

 

We’re probably giving the impression you could dangle a bundle of numbers in front of us and we’d chase them like a puppy going after a leaf in the wind. Perhaps there’s some truth there.

 

As for the FTSE and its numbers, it looks like some reversal should be expected on Thursday. Weakness next below 5,839 looks capable of attempting a pretty tame sounding 5,821 points. If broken, secondary is at 5,796 points. Neither ambition points to extreme volatility on this, our last day of the week. We’d be remiss if we didn’t find something to be really gloomy about and it’s the calculation, should 5,796 break. Apparently 5,690 becomes viable, taking the FTSE into territory where there’s a risk of Covid-19 levels of panic volatility.

 

Visually, the FTSE needs only nudge above 5,910 to re-enter the land of sweetness and light, allowing movement to a near term 6,036 with secondary, if bettered, working out at 6,075 points.

 

Finally, remember 3 things. We are discussing the FTSE and not out of hours futures. You don’t need to have fun to drink. And enjoy the weekend.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:57:40PM	BRENT	30.03	28.85	28.385	27.13	30.84	32.15	32.38	36.79	29
9:59:21PM	GOLD	1686.61									‘cess
10:01:18PM	FTSE	5814.31									‘cess
10:04:04PM	FRANCE	4404.9
10:25:40PM	GERMANY	10538									Sorry
10:27:54PM	US500	2843.87									Shambles
10:29:56PM	DOW	23634	23601	23529.5	23316	23771	24103	24271.5	24495	23926
10:32:39PM	NASDAQ	8966.05									‘cess
10:34:49PM	JAPAN	19370

6/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5853 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,887,003 a change of 18.35%

5/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5849 points. Change of 1.67%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,236,126,168 a change of -8.24%

4/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5753 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,706,354,809 a change of 60.68%

1/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of -2.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,551,403,027 a change of -92.77%

30/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5901 points. Change of -3.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 49,092,686,584 a change of 648.68%

29/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 6115 points. Change of 2.64%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,557,213,009 a change of 3.88%

28/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5958 points. Change of 1.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,312,043,698 a change of 37.73%

 

#CAC40 #NasdaqThe subject of a few emails, Hemogenyx share price has certainly been to the races. We’ve some concern regarding recent reversals, pointing to recent share price rises for this specialist in Blood Cancers turning into a rather painful ‘Pump and Dump’ experience. In this Covid-19 era, some of the victims shall not be those who contract the virus.

At present, the share needs trade below 5.6p to provoke real panic as this risks triggering reversal to an initial 4.5p with secondary, if broken, down at a risking 0.75p, this being the point we cannot calculate below.

Presently trading around 7.4p, the share price needs exceed 10p to give early indications of hope, this apparently allowing recovery again to an initial 11.25p with secondary, if bettered, working out at a longer-term (or later that day!) return to the 15p level. Only if this ambition is bettered dare we mention the potential of 17p and beyond, further down the road.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
11:14:25PM	BRENT	32.18									Success
11:16:29PM	GOLD	1706.16
11:26:43PM	FTSE	5831.47									‘cess
11:29:02PM	FRANCE	4433	4412	4392	4359	4482	4472	4496.5	4543	4427	Success
11:30:50PM	GERMANY	10658									Success
11:32:54PM	US500	2872.57									Success
11:36:01PM	DOW	23915.5									Success
11:38:21PM	NASDAQ	8960	8832	8774	8688	8936	8989	9054.5	9217	8908	Success
11:40:56PM	JAPAN	19573									Success

5/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5849 points. Change of 1.67%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,236,126,168 a change of -8.24%

4/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5753 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,706,354,809 a change of 60.68%

1/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of -2.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,551,403,027 a change of -92.77%

30/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5901 points. Change of -3.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 49,092,686,584 a change of 648.68%

29/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 6115 points. Change of 2.64%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,557,213,009 a change of 3.88%

28/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5958 points. Change of 1.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,312,043,698 a change of 37.73%

27/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5846 points. Change of 1.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,582,926,197 a change of -2.06%

 

#Gold #CAC40 Last reviewed at the start of the year, (link) this pairing has pretty much conformed to our reversal scenario, aside from the little dramatic detail of Covid-19 inspired reversal to 1.15, a drop which lasted longer than a political ‘Firm Commitment’. Oddly, our report last August admitted something quite dramatic for the pairing. We wrote;

“The immediate problem Sterling now faces is an expectation of a “bottom” on the current cycle at 1.1677. ”

It’s easy to wonder if we’re about to inhale an era of aggressive currency movements, countries trying to make themselves and their products “cheaper” to other nations in an effort to restart full trade (and tourism). In conversation today with someone who’d planned inflict the hell of Disney in Florida on their children, apparently traveling abroad is now off the agenda for at least the next year and she intends enjoy the ‘quiet roads and empty beaches’ (her words, not mine) of Cornwall, if allowed to travel during the school holidays.

 

Presently trading around 1.244, GBPUSD needs slip below Red, presently 1.20, to again cause trouble as we’re now looking at the prospect of coming reversal to an initial 1.152 with secondary, if (when) broken at 1.088. Normally in such a scenario, we’d expect a proper bounce at the 1.08 level, if achieved. Instead, we advise caution as a break below this level will tend to indicate a bottom, hopefully, at 1.059.

 

The other side of the coin examines the potentials, if Sterling somehow manages to strengthen against the US Dollar. In the event the pair moves above 1.277, we’re looking at recovery to an initial 1.297 with secondary, if bettered, up at 1.337. While there are plenty of visual suggestions hinting at a Glass Ceiling at the 1.337 level, by moving above the longer-term Blue downtrend, Sterling will find itself in a place where travel to 1.479 is allegedly possible.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:04:54PM	GOLD	1702.86									‘cess
10:07:33PM	BRENT	28.08	25.72	24.98	23.89	26.73	28.25	29.24	31.12	26.24
10:12:12PM	FTSE	5796
10:15:42PM	FRANCE	4419.5	4357	4322	4260	4416	4428	4436.5	4463	4371	‘cess
10:18:20PM	GERMANY	10569
10:28:58PM	US500	2836.92
10:33:20PM	DOW	23708
10:36:30PM	NASDAQ	8823.24									Success
10:39:23PM	JAPAN	19405									‘cess

4/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5753 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,706,354,809 a change of 60.68%

1/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of -2.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,551,403,027 a change of -92.77%

30/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5901 points. Change of -3.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 49,092,686,584 a change of 648.68%

29/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 6115 points. Change of 2.64%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,557,213,009 a change of 3.88%

28/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5958 points. Change of 1.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,312,043,698 a change of 37.73%

27/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5846 points. Change of 1.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,582,926,197 a change of -2.06%

24/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5752 points. Change of -1.27%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,679,159,654 a change of -17.56%