Trends And Targets

#GOLD #DOW The UK market has spent November limping ever higher, but trailing behind other European and US index’. The slow pace, doubtless, is due to nerves over the Election, Brexit, and what ‘vote greedy’ politicians may say next to enhance their exposure. There are slight signs of an imminent slowdown on the FTSE and we suspect Friday may show some reversal.

At present, the key number on the FTSE is at 7285 points. This is the level the market needs fall below to force us to take reversal seriously. Unless this number is broken, anything soon is liable to be simply part of a trading range. The other key number is at 7440 points.

Above this level, the market betters the highs of July, and enters a cycle where growth to 7494 becomes a near certainty. Secondary calculates at a longer term 7654 points and visually shall challenge the downtrend since the peak achieved in May 2018.

Near term, it looks probable Friday should relax (we’ve a caveat!) and for safety sake, allocating 7384 as a trigger level makes sense. The caveat is quite silly – on far too many occasions recently, when the FTSE illustrates a drop dead argument of direction, the market has toddled off in the opposite direction. To play safe, we’ve opted for a fairly wide trigger level. Below 7384 suggests weakness to an initial 7373 points. If broken, secondary is at 7330 points.

The UK market needs better 7422 before we take any rise seriously as it should permit near term movement up to an initial useless 7429 points. If bettered, secondary calculates at 7439 points – marginally below the Big Picture trigger level of 7440 points.

Have a good weekend.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:18:36PM	BRENT	62.09
10:22:31PM	GOLD	1469.09	1460	1456	1442.22	1476	1492	1502	1516	1479	Success
10:24:10PM	FTSE	7406.91
10:28:40PM	FRANCE	5877.9									Success
10:31:56PM	GERMANY	13284
10:34:51PM	US500	3086.77									‘cess
10:38:21PM	DOW	27715	27580	27474	27354	27758	27780	27899	28343	27406	‘cess
10:41:27PM	NASDAQ	8223.5									Success
10:44:12PM	JAPAN	23555									Success

 

 

7/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7406 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,615,818 a change of 30.74%

6/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,739,678,595 a change of -23.11%

5/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7388 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,164,114,046 a change of 25.79%

4/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7369 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,900,286,853 a change of -8.27%

1/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.75%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,127,869 a change of -12.99%

31/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7248 points. Change of -1.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,139,753,782 a change of 11.95%

30/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7330 points. Change of 0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,484,235,986 a change of 6.15%

#DAX #SP500 Sometimes, we review an article and wonder just why did we bother? Our last glance at Boohoo, full of logical doom, finished with just 22 words dealing with the upside. Needless to say, the prior 300 word report could be ignored as it successfully triggered and completed an upward cycle.

This time around, we’re again a little pessimistic about Boohoo but, from a big picture perspective, also fairly confident. It begs the question; is a buy opportunity about to present itself? The immediate situation suggests weakness below 257 should lead to an initial 237p. If broken, secondary calculates at 222p and at this point (roughly) life becomes dangerous. There’s a very real risk, if the price shuffles below 222p, of travel down to 150p commencing. While it’s a heck of a drop, historically there’s ample reason to hope for a bounce if such a level makes an appearance.

Our hope is travel to 237p shall be “it” with a rebound to follow from such a level.

The reason for optimism is fairly simple. We’d previously given an upper target of 251p, something the share price has managed to better. As a result, despite expecting the price to reverse to 237p, it’s already viewed as being on a track which leads to an initial 294p with secondary 344p. All we’re attempting to do is plot the potential path!

One thing we need warn about. Any movement by the market which gaps the share price down to 237p shall make the concept of growth difficult to promote. This will create one of our terrifying GaGa Gap Up/Down routines, a movement by the market which normally will suggest proper reversal.

For this reason, we’ve highlighted our bottom number at 150p, this being the calculation if a GaGa does take place.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:53:44PM	BRENT	61.63									‘cess
9:55:38PM	GOLD	1490.41									‘cess
9:59:06PM	FTSE	7403.55									Shambles
10:05:00PM	FRANCE	5862.2									‘cess
10:16:33PM	GERMANY	13183	13100	13057	13006	13175	13209	13293	13374	13100	Success
10:18:37PM	US500	3078.42	3072	3062.5	3054	3087	3087	3093.5	3103	3071	‘cess
10:33:04PM	DOW	27480.1
10:36:24PM	NASDAQ	8205									‘cess
10:37:51PM	JAPAN	23317

 

 

6/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,739,678,595 a change of -23.11%

5/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7388 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,164,114,046 a change of 25.79%

4/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7369 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,900,286,853 a change of -8.27%

1/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.75%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,127,869 a change of -12.99%

31/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7248 points. Change of -1.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,139,753,782 a change of 11.95%

30/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7330 points. Change of 0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,484,235,986 a change of 6.15%

29/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7306 points. Change of -0.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,166,736,018 a change of 9.98%

#BRENT #NASDAQ When we last reviewed Faron, we promoted a scenario for a 25% rise (link). The move successfully happened in May and in the period since, it has more than doubled! Thankfully someone emailed to remind us this was urgently due a Big Picture update.

This one is extremely difficult to map thanks to a bunch of quite separate calculations. When we now refresh our numbers, the share price has quite several distinct formula, all pointing at a high of 276p. The other day, it bettered this level, achieving 277.5p. It has created the situation where we should anticipate price movement now exceeding 258p to provoke yet another surge, this time in the direction of 319p.

Above 319p and things get a bit vague but we can calculate a high of 392p and no further. Unless, of course, if goes higher and in which case, we shall need review the tea leaves again!

The price certainly received an absolute hammering, once it hit the 277 level. Reversing to 150p within the same session really was not fair and now, has created the situation where weakness below 180p threatens reversal to 130p initially. If broken, secondary calculates at 81p. We’re not convinced it is on the edge of doom, instead suspecting whatever drove the amazing rise has seen some sanity enter the conversation.

Regardless, by any standards, we’re fairly optimistic for this lots longer term future and dreading, once again, how to handle things if it indeed approaches the 4 quid level.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:46:29PM	BRENT	62.77	61.86	61.47	60.95	62.78	62.97	63.13	63.59	62.47	‘cess
9:49:39PM	GOLD	1484.27									Success
9:51:27PM	FTSE	7380.55
9:54:06PM	FRANCE	5847.9									Success
9:55:40PM	GERMANY	13149
10:02:42PM	US500	3074.42
10:16:58PM	DOW	27491.5
10:19:23PM	NASDAQ	8206.94	8186	8167	8141	8237	8228	8239.5	8351	8188	‘cess
10:22:36PM	JAPAN	23335									Success

 

5/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7388 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,164,114,046 a change of 25.79%

4/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7369 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,900,286,853 a change of -8.27%

1/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.75%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,127,869 a change of -12.99%

31/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7248 points. Change of -1.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,139,753,782 a change of 11.95%

30/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7330 points. Change of 0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,484,235,986 a change of 6.15%

29/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7306 points. Change of -0.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,166,736,018 a change of 9.98%

28/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7331 points. Change of 0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,697,887,789 a change of 4.65%

Apparently, if the FTSE now makes it above 7399, it should go to 7420. And if 7420 bettered, good chance the strength will continue!

Now, where’s that box of matches?

#GOLD #SP500 When asked to review #Sylvania, it occurred we very rarely pay attention to this, one of the Earths rarest metals. Spanish miners once regarded it as an unwanted impurity in the silver they were mining, a mistake unlikely to be made today. There’s something happening with the price of platinum and we’ll deal with that first.

Presently trading around the 950 dollar mark, Platinum looks very capable of heading to 1,030 next. If exceeded, we expect some stutters around our secondary calculation of 1,060 dollars. The price needs reverse below 930 dollars to provoke hysterics against these calculations.

If Sylvania Platinum share price intends reflect the change in fortunes for the metal itself, price growth now above 39.5p suggests coming recovery to an initial 43.8p. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at a longer term (or later that day!) 49p.

Achieving 49p is liable to be almost game changing for the longer term. If the share price manages to close a session above 45.5p, it enters the hallowed lands of “the higher high”. To us, this means we require extrapolate price movement from 2013 to calculate the force driving it for the future. While this sounds like complex mumbo jumbo, it’s fairly simple logic which implies, essentially, positive market conditions allow a long term attempt at 61p before we run out of numbers.

At present, the share needs below 32p before we’d feel our optimism is about to be trashed.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:07:03PM	BRENT	61.96									Success
10:08:51PM	GOLD	1510.43	1504	1499.5	1494	1512	1514	1516	1520	1504
10:11:18PM	FTSE	7373									Success
10:13:32PM	FRANCE	5826.5									Success
10:27:39PM	GERMANY	13132									Success
10:30:52PM	US500	3079.02	3073	3069.5	3064	3082	3086	3099.75	3135	3039	Success
10:34:04PM	DOW	27458									‘cess
10:36:15PM	NASDAQ	8216.37									Success
10:39:29PM	JAPAN	23137									Success

4/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7369 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,900,286,853 a change of -8.27%

1/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.75%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,127,869 a change of -12.99%

31/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7248 points. Change of -1.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,139,753,782 a change of 11.95%

30/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7330 points. Change of 0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,484,235,986 a change of 6.15%

29/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7306 points. Change of -0.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,166,736,018 a change of 9.98%

28/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7331 points. Change of 0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,697,887,789 a change of 4.65%

25/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7324 points. Change of -0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,489,255,680 a change of -20.08%

#BRENT #DAX Similar to UK politics, this is on the edge of becoming interesting. We last reviewed Metro in September (link) and we’d some pretty foul expectations for its future. Something seems to have changed and now, we’ve calculated a trigger level which appears capable of provoking a “sure thing” trade!

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” and to be blunt, the best we’d describe the potential is one of movement with an enhanced expectations. Perhaps, a bit like saying some MP’s will be elected on December 12th, just we’re not sure whom nor where…

To cut to the chase, the situation appears to be fairly straightforward. If this lot now manage trades above 248p, we’re calculating an initial 301p as an initial target ambition. Visually, this makes a lot of sense, matching the plateau of prices until September 23rd. In fact, if 301p makes an appearance, the share can be expected to experience some hesitation thanks to folk trapped at the 3 quid level dumping their shares in exchange for cash, doubtless to be wasted on Xmas presents, frivolity, or any number of undeserving causes which appear at this time of year. (Guess who made the mistake of going Xmas shopping at the weekend!)

Longer term, closure above 301p is liable to prove interesting, calculating with a surge to a vague looking 432p. In fact, we’re supposed to believe 641p is exerting an influence, a price level we’re less than confident about. In this instance, the only movement which appears to have some confidence is from 248 up to 301p.

If it’s all going to go wrong, the price needs fail below 198p at present to give serious alarm as this appears capable of bringing 175p initially. If broken, secondary computes at 125p and hopefully a bottom capable of providing a rebound.

For now, it appears worth keeping an eye on for our trigger level making an appearance.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
11:57:07AM	BRENT	61.65	59.16	58.49	57.4	60.85	60.88	62.08	62.58	60.4	Success
12:00:51PM	GOLD	1514.79
12:16:09PM	FTSE	7312.77									Success
12:17:25PM	FRANCE	5770.7									‘cess
12:19:19PM	GERMANY	12979	12895	12867.5	12826	12960	12992	13026	13104	12946	Success
12:27:50PM	US500	3065.92									‘cess
12:30:06PM	DOW	27334.9									‘cess
12:33:47PM	NASDAQ	8159.87									‘cess
12:35:35PM	JAPAN	22946									Success

 

1/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.75%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,127,869 a change of -12.99%

31/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7248 points. Change of -1.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,139,753,782 a change of 11.95%

30/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7330 points. Change of 0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,484,235,986 a change of 6.15%

29/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7306 points. Change of -0.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,166,736,018 a change of 9.98%

28/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7331 points. Change of 0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,697,887,789 a change of 4.65%

25/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7324 points. Change of -0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,489,255,680 a change of -20.08%

24/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7328 points. Change of 0.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,617,068,603 a change of -3.47%