Trends And Targets

#GOLD #FRANCE News Ryanair intended order 75 new Boeing 737 Max raised an eyebrow. Had the company taken advantage of the plane makers troubles, intending to pick up a bunch of cheap jets in a aviation car boot sale? Or more likely, was this a PR exercise, designed to raise confidence in the jet which has been grounded internationally for 22 months! Perhaps there’s a more important facet to these manoeuvres, one which may make SOME airline shares strong recovery targets.

Recently, Ryanair started trading above 2020’s pre-Covid price level, an amazing accomplishment given passenger numbers remain down by more than 80%. The company, quite forcefully, take the attitude things shall return to normal next year with the assumption Coronavirus shall be vanquished, people will again be happy crammed into a Petri dish of germs, Brexit will work out. And fairly important, the new 737 Max fuel efficient aircraft shall prove safe, reliable and a hit with the public. Doubtless the company will produce some bargain basement ticket prices just to get things moving.

 

The chart below encompasses some interesting potentials for the long term. Ryanair, presently trading around 15.8 Euro, has very successfully and quite exactly performed according to our report in October, the share rising from 13 Euro to a target 15.8 Euro. We demanded the price actually close above 15.8 to suggest some strong Big Picture potentials, a feat it has achieved several times in the last few weeks. Our inclination is to play safe and sane for the longer term.

For this reason, we’ve established a trigger level at 17.8. In the event Ryanair share prices trade above this level, we anticipate a price lift to a modest 19.2, matching the prior all time high of 2017. Our secondary, if such a level is now exceeded, calculates at a longer term 25 Euro.

If anything about the world presently was “normal”, we’d already be anticipating a trip to 19.2 with some confidence. It occurs Ryanair bullish behaviour may also be due to the number of smaller operators which will not return to flight operations, thanks to financial pressures. Doubtless the company intend to ‘pick up the slack’ from the vanquished.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:52:25PM	BRENT	50.36
9:54:36PM	GOLD	1828.27	1821	1816.5	1797	1831	1839	1842	1850	1824
9:57:12PM	FTSE	6518.99									‘cess
9:59:11PM	FRANCE	5508.6	5507	5496.5	5470	5532	5535	5560.5	5593	5510	Success
10:01:17PM	GERMANY	13209									‘cess
10:18:20PM	US500	3649
10:20:46PM	DOW	29922									‘cess
10:22:47PM	NASDAQ	12466									Success
10:27:14PM	JAPAN	26670									‘cess

14/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6531 points. Change of -0.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,681,528,209 a change of 9.32%

11/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6546 points. Change of -0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,112,009,870 a change of -15.57%

10/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6599 points. Change of 0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,239,162,237 a change of 27.24%

9/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6564 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,689,395,466 a change of 1.75%

8/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6558 points. Change of 0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,591,373,092 a change of -5.03%

7/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6555 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,887,798,366 a change of -14.07%

4/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6550 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,852,193,326 a change of -2.58%

#BrentCrude #DAX Despite festive lights decorating our garden, the reality indoors (thankfully) has been a lack of a Xmas tree, along with the usual paraphernalia which somehow means everything in the house interior needs moved around. We opted to follow the herd locally, illuminating the house exterior at the start of December, joining a collective effort to pretend cheer and normality. Of course, the interior will only be dealt with a few days before Xmas as the usual mad panic ensues when planning for grandchildren arriving for a week of anarchy.

For a few days at the start of December, it felt like Natwest were copying our example, the share price achieving our previous 165p target level, even exceeding it slightly during a few sessions. But of course, the price decoration was suspected to be for exterior views only as it has fallen back fairly considerably. The immediate reversal cycle looks capable of weakness below 148 provoking reversal to an initial 144 with secondary, if broken, at 134p where it shall hopefully rebound.

The secondary level presents a pretty major issue, thanks to weakness below such a point taking the share into a zone where 113p is the best hope but unfortunately, if something truly nasty drives reversals, the price could dive swiftly to a bottom of 75p.

 

Of course, it’s be churlish to ignore the movement to our 165p target level did exceed target, so we’re supposed to broadcast festive cheer. There is certainly a favourable scenario suggesting ongoing strength next bettering 173p should head uphill to an initial 186p with secondary, if bettered, now at 191p.

Here’s hoping.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
1:29:31PM	BRENT	49.99	49.7	49.485	48.98	50.31	50.7	51.035	51.48	49.85
1:33:39PM	GOLD	1840.22
1:36:15PM	FTSE	6569.22									Success
1:41:36PM	FRANCE	5521.9									‘cess
1:44:33PM	GERMANY	13145	13063	13001.5	12850	13160	13188	13239	13318	13116	Success
2:20:23PM	US500	3661									‘cess
2:22:25PM	DOW	30060									Success
2:24:43PM	NASDAQ	12376
2:28:10PM	JAPAN	26606									Success

 

11/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6546 points. Change of -0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,112,009,870 a change of -15.57%

10/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6599 points. Change of 0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,239,162,237 a change of 27.24%

9/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6564 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,689,395,466 a change of 1.75%

8/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6558 points. Change of 0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,591,373,092 a change of -5.03%

7/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6555 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,887,798,366 a change of -14.07%

4/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6550 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,852,193,326 a change of -2.58%

3/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6490 points. Change of 0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,033,541,138 a change of 11.37%

FTSE for FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) Last Friday again provided a clue why our glance at the UK100 market is so popular, literally worldwide. We’d given criteria for a modest 55 point rise on the FTSE, calculating a secondary target at 6,560 points (link). On Friday, the FTSE topped out at 6,559.18 points, almost exactly our ambition and once again proving there’s a little bit more than guesswork going on!

Unusually, we also mentioned a 3rd target for the FTSE at 6,611 points, this being successfully achieved on Wednesday when the index achieved a day high of 6,623. It certainly feels, at least until such time our Govt foul up Brexit negotiations or Covid-19 immunisations, a Santa Rally is taking place. This being the case, some considerable hope is available for further market movements upward, though we’ve understandable hesitation with Big Picture ambitions. Surely UK politicians shall discover some method of derailing the potential of a 600 point rise cycle?

Near term, we calculate movement above 6,641 points as being capable of an initial 6,697 points. This target level is quite interesting as we’ve currently 3 distinctly different scenario establishing this as a viable target level. Usually we’re more than happy when 2 scenario agree, thus confidence appears possible. If exceeded, our secondary works out at 6,747 points.

From a bigger picture viewpoint, the FTSE has finally above the 6,500 level, a painfully obvious glass ceiling. Longer term, we can now mention 7,081 with secondary 7,310 as quite strong recovery prospects. It’s definitely “fingers crossed time” as London would need reverse below 6,074 to justify hysterics. In the absence of strong political will attempting to damage the markets, confidence appears possible.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:24:06PM	BRENT	50.36	48.81	48.41		49.7	50.99	51.13		49.5	‘cess
10:26:24PM	GOLD	1837	1828	1817.5		1850	1853	1863.5		1833
10:45:32PM	FTSE	6602	6557	6549.5		6602	6617	6641.5		6583	‘cess
10:48:13PM	FRANCE	5540	5507	5491.5		5550	5571	5588		5531
10:51:35PM	GERMANY	13299	13259	13194		13325	13370	13394		13280	‘cess
10:53:53PM	US500	3669	3655	3638.5		3678	3684	3699.5		3657	‘cess
10:56:42PM	DOW	30040	29936	29868		30066	30130	30162		30019	‘cess
10:59:00PM	NASDAQ	12402	12220	12147		12380	12448	12460.5		12348	‘cess
11:01:14PM	JAPAN	26688	26606	26537		26753	26831	26893.5		26670	‘cess

10/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6599 points. Change of 0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,239,162,237 a change of 27.24%

9/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6564 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,689,395,466 a change of 1.75%

8/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6558 points. Change of 0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,591,373,092 a change of -5.03%

7/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6555 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,887,798,366 a change of -14.07%

4/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6550 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,852,193,326 a change of -2.58%

3/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6490 points. Change of 0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,033,541,138 a change of 11.37%

2/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6463 points. Change of 1.24%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,315,459,569 a change of 10.4%

#DAX #NASDAQ We’d planned to focus on Brent alone but an email, rather plaintively, asked us to take a quick look at #SThree PLC, essentially a recruitment agency with a bunch of well known brands in its stable. The exercise turned into a prime example of “easily distracted”, thanks to not coming across the share before with the result we decided to feature both shares in this, our Trends and Targets headline section.

 

SThree , presently trading around 302p, is quite surprising. At first glance, it’s easy to dismiss the share as floundering around but given it’s doing so within an impressive trading range (2 quid to 4 quid) and has been in this hiatus since 2015, it provides a fairly safe haven. Except, of course, for the folk who bought at 4 quid and those who opened a short at £2. The immediate cycle is fairly interesting, allowing us to present a couple of scenario.

In the event the share manages above 333p, it looks capable of triggering further recovery toward an initial 360p, a point at which the share price intercepts the 13 year old Blue downtrend. We’d obviously suspect some hesitation at this level but critically, if the company manages to actually close a day above 360p, there’s a pretty strong argument favouring an upward break in the direction of 453p. This sort of thing is liable to prove game changing for the longer term, thanks to the allure of 649p as a Big Picture ambition.

Alternately, and doubtless less likely if the Covid-19 thing resolves itself, will be the danger implied if the price manages to weaken below 235p for any reason. A movement such is this is liable to prove traumatic, allowing reversal to 177p (again, breaking the rangebound situation) with secondary, if broken, at 100p.

Brent Crude Brent is proving frustrating, thanks to a problem with the numbers. For some considerable time, we’ve been calculating the $50 level as a ‘problem area’ for the price of UK Crude and the barrel price has avoided tampering with this price, movements in December remaining carefully below the $50 mark. When this sort of thing happens, it’s generally quite easy to assume a trigger level exists, one which the market is carefully avoiding.

We suspect this shall prove the case.

Movement next above $50 (or if playing utterly safe, $51.5 thanks to some ambiguous price shuffles) looks very capable of commencing price recovery to an initial $55.88 with secondary, if exceeded, calculating at a more impressive $65.26. The surprising feature with both target levels comes from the proximity of the long term downtrend and uptrend. Achieving $55.88 would certainly challenge the Blue line on the chart. Achieving $65.26 would imply a coming attempt for the barrel price to regain its historical uptrend, a truly amazing feat.

For things to go horribly wrong for Brent Crude, the price needs drip below the $42 level as reversal to the $29 mark looks very possible.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:47:59PM	BRENT	49.02									‘cess
9:50:00PM	GOLD	1839.47
9:55:12PM	FTSE	6577									Success
9:57:29PM	FRANCE	5554.4									‘cess
10:00:03PM	GERMANY	13345	13279	13242	13171	13353	13455	13483.25	13530	13363	Success
10:02:35PM	US500	3671.27									‘cess
10:04:45PM	DOW	30064									Shambles
10:08:07PM	NASDAQ	12356	12307	12235	12208	12457	12510	12553	12636	12413	Success
10:09:44PM	JAPAN	26681									Success

9/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6564 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,689,395,466 a change of 1.75%

8/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6558 points. Change of 0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,591,373,092 a change of -5.03%

7/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6555 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,887,798,366 a change of -14.07%

4/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6550 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,852,193,326 a change of -2.58%

3/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6490 points. Change of 0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,033,541,138 a change of 11.37%

2/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6463 points. Change of 1.24%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,315,459,569 a change of 10.4%

1/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6384 points. Change of 1.88%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,720,343,712 a change of -42.77%

#CAC40 #WallSt  Sometimes the temptation to do a little research on a company can drag you down a rabbit hole. A desire to discover the words behind the letters, BHP Group Plc (Broken Hill Proprietary) revealed a company, formed in 1885, with a fascinating history. It was funny, an assumption the mob were originally South African, came from their previous name, BHP Billiton and stupid logic the naming convention was related to the best thing to come out of South Africa, Biltong.

Obviously, this shocking discovery demanded more research, in the process discovering the Billiton part of the name came from another, older, company working on Belitung, an island off the coast of Sumatra.

Long (very long) story short, by 2017 BHP could claim to be the largest mining company in the world, based on their market capitalisation alone. And they’ve never had anything to do with a dried beef treat from South Africa!

 

Similar to every other share, BHP received a similar hammering in March, thanks to Covid-19. In the period since, the share has more than doubled in value and now, is trading higher than before the Covid-19 drop. From our perspective, this is a good sight and promises more for the future. The immediate picture is fairly interesting, suggesting movement beyond 1942p should make an attempt at an initial 2064p, challenging the historical highs from last year (2019). This is liable to prove significant as closure above 2064p calculates as game changing for the longer term with 2503p making a lot of sense as a future ambition.

Above such a level, we’d need revisit the tea leaves but for now, BHP appear to be inspiring some confidence. The share price would need break Red on the chart, currently 1570p, to justify buying running shoes. Even any return below Blue at 1800p would suggest raising an eyebrow in concern.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:56:05PM	BRENT	48.83									‘cess
9:57:29PM	GOLD	1870.89
9:59:10PM	FTSE	6573
10:00:32PM	FRANCE	5575.7	5519	5504.5	5480	5562	5579	5595.5	5621	5539	‘cess
10:07:26PM	GERMANY	13315									‘cess
10:09:21PM	US500	3703.47									‘cess
10:31:35PM	DOW	30185	29862	29785	29632	30061	30244	30328.5	30484	30102	‘cess
10:33:33PM	NASDAQ	12648									‘cess
10:35:29PM	JAPAN	26516

8/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6558 points. Change of 0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,591,373,092 a change of -5.03%

7/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6555 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,887,798,366 a change of -14.07%

4/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6550 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,852,193,326 a change of -2.58%

3/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6490 points. Change of 0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,033,541,138 a change of 11.37%

2/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6463 points. Change of 1.24%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,315,459,569 a change of 10.4%

1/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6384 points. Change of 1.88%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,720,343,712 a change of -42.77%

30/11/2020 FTSE Closed at 6266 points. Change of -1.59%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,995,620,767 a change of -0.31%

#Gold #SP500 We’ve been receiving emails about Deal Or No Deal, better known as the Brexit negotiations. Apparently, depending on the outcome of the talking shop, GBPEUR is expected to move sharply but we wonder, quite seriously, just what the market will believe to be a good outcome. Since April, the pairing has been pretty rangebound, spending most of its time hovering between 1.10 and 1.15, doubtless in response to whatever spin the media place of the latest gossip.

We’re inclined to assign some importance to a rate of 1.090. Movement below such a level now looks very liable to trigger weakness in the direction of an initial 1.061. If broken, our secondary calculates at 1.030 and hopefully a bounce.

There’s a pretty serious problem, if this relationship discovers sufficient excuse to weaken below 1.030 as longer term, reversal toward an eventual bottom of 0.838 is liable to commence. Obviously there’s a mantra, almost graven in rock, of parity between the Euro and Sterling being “bottom” for this pairing but unfortunately, when we review the big picture there’s absolutely no reason to expect 1:1 shall provide a realistic rebound. Quite the converse in fact!

 

Some slight hope is being taken from the Glass Ceiling which formed since June of this year. For reasons known only to the Forex market, considerable effort has been employed to stop the relationship strengthening with a CLOSING PRICE above 1.1274. If we chose to play safe and declare intraday trades above 1.13 will suggest a coming change in the fortunes of Sterling, above 1.13 looks very capable of triggering recovery to an initial 1.173 with secondary, if exceeded, calculating at a more useful 1.225.

For the present, we don’t think the market has a clue what to do and this will doubtless make movement (on the release of factual news) very sharp and very fast.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:10:38PM	BRENT	48.67									‘cess
10:13:40PM	GOLD	1862	1821	1808.5	1789	1843	1869	1882.5	1922	1828	‘cess
10:15:43PM	FTSE	6524									‘cess
10:17:42PM	FRANCE	5564									‘cess
10:20:45PM	GERMANY	13250									‘cess
10:28:16PM	US500	3683	3672	3667.5	3655	3689	3697	3703.5	3714	3681
10:32:04PM	DOW	30015
10:34:46PM	NASDAQ	12574									Success
10:37:18PM	JAPAN	26338

 

7/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6555 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,887,798,366 a change of -14.07%

4/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6550 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,852,193,326 a change of -2.58%

3/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6490 points. Change of 0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,033,541,138 a change of 11.37%

2/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6463 points. Change of 1.24%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,315,459,569 a change of 10.4%

1/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6384 points. Change of 1.88%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,720,343,712 a change of -42.77%

30/11/2020 FTSE Closed at 6266 points. Change of -1.59%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,995,620,767 a change of -0.31%

27/11/2020 FTSE Closed at 6367 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,026,664,770 a change of 117.2%

#Brent #SP500 Here in our part of Scotland, sometimes we wake up to amazing views. Friday was one such occasion, snow covered hills, a promise of blue sky, the local shipwreck almost concealed by a high tide. Better still, instead of raining, the sun came out, justifying taking the dogs into the hills to play in the snow (A Golden Retriever thing, almost a law!).

As for Lloyds, for a few minutes early on Friday, the share also looked capable of enjoying a good day with some truly surprising price movements during the first 2 hours. Then, as with so many things on the UK market, enthusiasm waned with the price spending the rest of the day simply going through the motions. Surprisingly, from our perspective, this wasted effort gave some important clues as to where we should calculate the next trigger level and it’s at 39.6p.

We should point out we’re already fairly enthusiastic for Lloyds potentials, thanks to the share price successfully closing above 38p. The marks a “higher high” for the period since the Covid-19 drop in March and from our perspective, this means we should now anticipate the share price over-performing. In plain English, this calculates price gains above 39.6p should bring a fairly boring movement to an initial 40.6p. In this scenario, should Lloyds manage to trade above 40.6p anytime soon, our thoughts lean toward the concept of flamboyant movement and in this case, we should not be surprised if 43p makes an appearance thereafter.

It’s worth pointing out the obvious, expecting a retail bank share to provide a 10% rise in a single day is unlikely unless some important news comes along. However, Lloyds share price is already primed and ready for some useful recovery.

From a Big Picture perspective, we can step back and mention we’re looking for 50p eventually with secondary, with closure above such a level, at a visually sensible 61.5p. For it all to go wrong against Lloyds, the share needs crumble below 31.7p, a pretty reasonable Stop Loss level for those brave enough to take a Long position on a retail bank.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:45:02PM	BRENT	49.1	48.78	48.56	48.12	49.48	49.86	50.14	50.62	48.8	Success
6:16:52PM	GOLD	1839.21									‘cess
6:22:38PM	FTSE	6552.14									Success
6:25:38PM	FRANCE	5614.9									‘cess
6:29:32PM	GERMANY	13276
6:35:51PM	US500	3690	3668	3656.5	3642	3683	3695	3706.75	3716	3684	‘cess
6:39:16PM	DOW	30155									‘cess
6:42:50PM	NASDAQ	12509
6:45:23PM	JAPAN	26813									Shambles

 

 

4/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6550 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,852,193,326 a change of -2.58%

3/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6490 points. Change of 0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,033,541,138 a change of 11.37%

2/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6463 points. Change of 1.24%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,315,459,569 a change of 10.4%

1/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6384 points. Change of 1.88%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,720,343,712 a change of -42.77%

30/11/2020 FTSE Closed at 6266 points. Change of -1.59%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,995,620,767 a change of -0.31%

27/11/2020 FTSE Closed at 6367 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,026,664,770 a change of 117.2%

26/11/2020 FTSE Closed at 6362 points. Change of -0.45%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,616,288,955 a change of -37.01%