#Gold #SP500 We’ve been receiving emails about Deal Or No Deal, better known as the Brexit negotiations. Apparently, depending on the outcome of the talking shop, GBPEUR is expected to move sharply but we wonder, quite seriously, just what the market will believe to be a good outcome. Since April, the pairing has been pretty rangebound, spending most of its time hovering between 1.10 and 1.15, doubtless in response to whatever spin the media place of the latest gossip.
We’re inclined to assign some importance to a rate of 1.090. Movement below such a level now looks very liable to trigger weakness in the direction of an initial 1.061. If broken, our secondary calculates at 1.030 and hopefully a bounce.
There’s a pretty serious problem, if this relationship discovers sufficient excuse to weaken below 1.030 as longer term, reversal toward an eventual bottom of 0.838 is liable to commence. Obviously there’s a mantra, almost graven in rock, of parity between the Euro and Sterling being “bottom” for this pairing but unfortunately, when we review the big picture there’s absolutely no reason to expect 1:1 shall provide a realistic rebound. Quite the converse in fact!
Some slight hope is being taken from the Glass Ceiling which formed since June of this year. For reasons known only to the Forex market, considerable effort has been employed to stop the relationship strengthening with a CLOSING PRICE above 1.1274. If we chose to play safe and declare intraday trades above 1.13 will suggest a coming change in the fortunes of Sterling, above 1.13 looks very capable of triggering recovery to an initial 1.173 with secondary, if exceeded, calculating at a more useful 1.225.
For the present, we don’t think the market has a clue what to do and this will doubtless make movement (on the release of factual news) very sharp and very fast.
FUTURES
| Time Issued | Market | Price At Issue | Short Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Long Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Prior |
| 10:10:38PM | BRENT | 48.67 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 10:13:40PM | GOLD | 1862 | 1821 | 1808.5 | 1789 | 1843 | 1869 | 1882.5 | 1922 | 1828 | ‘cess |
| 10:15:43PM | FTSE | 6524 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 10:17:42PM | FRANCE | 5564 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 10:20:45PM | GERMANY | 13250 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 10:28:16PM | US500 | 3683 | 3672 | 3667.5 | 3655 | 3689 | 3697 | 3703.5 | 3714 | 3681 | |
| 10:32:04PM | DOW | 30015 | |||||||||
| 10:34:46PM | NASDAQ | 12574 | Success | ||||||||
| 10:37:18PM | JAPAN | 26338 |