Author: T&T Staff

#CAC40 #SP500 Sometimes, passengers in an aircraft experience an awful moment on the ground, waiting to disembark. An announcement says there will be a delay “of just a few minutes” and seasoned travellers know what that really means. Today, Tuesday, passengers in TCG’s share price disaster (prior successful report link) must have felt a similar emotion, the price looking like it was about to recover, then a “gotcha suckers” drop!

Over the years, we’ve warned repeatedly about the dangers of opening second spikes in a share. These price movements can run in either direction but our rule of thumb is of a spike down signalling a coming upward movement. Obviously, the converse is true for a spike up. TCG was spiked to 15p, curiously NOT in the opening second but rather, twelve minutes after the market opened. While perhaps this indicates a change in market strategy (as we’ve seen this a few times in the last month) but regardless, the effect was pretty dire and allows Thomas Cook to experience a trading range of 65.08%  for Tuesday. It was virtually impossible to allocate a sensible stop loss, regardless of which direction you thought it was going and perhaps this was the markets idea.

We’ve a bit of in-house mumbo jumbo now warning of danger, if Thomas Cook somehow makes it below 7.65p. Apparently, this will be a bad thing and calculates with the potential of travel down to an initial 5.3p. If broken, secondary is at 2p and hopefully bottom. Ultimate bottom is MINUS 18p (not possible).

However, for now I suspect holders of TCG are simply stuck on board, awaiting something positive happening. Price movements on the 6th August did suggest a holding pattern was being employed. If this is indeed the case, anything now exceeding 13.6p is liable to prove useful, bettering the BLUE downtrend and calculating with the potential of 19p next. If bettered, our secondary is at 23.3p and an almost certain hesitation in the recovery cycle.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:57:00PM	BRENT	58.49									‘cess
10:10:16PM	GOLD	1475.06
10:12:41PM	FTSE	7206.66
10:14:53PM	FRANCE	5267.7	5228	5208.5	5179	5287	5298	5319.5	5364	5243	Success
10:28:35PM	GERMANY	11629
10:31:09PM	US500	2877.27	2830	2808	2782	2861	2889	2901	2925	2830	‘cess
10:33:35PM	DOW	25966									Success
10:35:44PM	NASDAQ	7514.12									‘cess
10:37:35PM	JAPAN	20635									Success

 

6/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7171 points. Change of -0.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,677,276,467 a change of 2.51%

#Gold #Nasdaq Forex can be a blooming nuisance. When GBPEUR managed to hit our 1.085, normally we’d hope for a rebound of some substance. Unfortunately, the relationship faltered slightly below target, forcing us to actually work at projecting the next phase. Assuming the politicians involved achieve their usual standard of competence, the future looks pretty vile. But really cheap for tourists coming from Europe!

We’re no longer entirely confident this pairing shall bounce convincingly, thanks to our target level breaking. Instead, weakness now below 1.083 looks like entering a fresh cycle down to an initial 1.0700. If broken, secondary calculates at 1.0337. Allegedly, the relation almost must experience some recovery at such a level, if only to generate sufficient weight for longer term drops! Make no mistake, by any standards GBPEUR is officially horrible as the longer term calculation claims a gravitational attraction is being exerted from a distant looking 0.84.

To get out of this mess, Sterling needs recover above BLUE on the chart, presently at 1.145. A miracle such as this calculates with 1.588 as an initial ambition with secondary, if bettered, up at 1.200.

In summary, it starts to appear UK Goods shall be extremely attractive as exports to Europe in the event of Brexit. Of course, whether anyone will be able to export from the start of November is the big question, if a trade arrangement  remains absent. Perhaps we shall witness the situation with small boats crossing the channel from Europe, loaded with illegal migrants then returning to France loaded with illegal Scotch & Gin!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:07:23PM	BRENT	60.09									Success
10:11:02PM	GOLD	1464.7	1450	1444.5	1436	1462	1470	1479	1492	1454	Success
10:15:48PM	FTSE	7161.82									Success
10:24:28PM	FRANCE	5221.2									Success
10:28:05PM	GERMANY	11552.45									Success
10:36:24PM	US500	2826.02									Success
10:45:14PM	DOW	25566									Success
10:48:00PM	NASDAQ	7367.12	7351	7245	7131	7453	7477	7517	7553	7409	Success
10:50:05PM	JAPAN	20200									Success

5/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7223 points. Change of -2.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,514,005,349 a change of -7.03%

A major target met. At time of writing, this pairing is at 1.0852. Here’s a link to our  June report.

#DAX #BRENT Our previous report on RBS (link here) strongly suspected the price would reverse to 202p. It did, closing Friday at 202.9p! That’s 20p in old money (pre share split) for those who harbor a grudge. The share price is now pretty much at the level of 2009, when the stock market bottomed. Unfortunately for RBS, the share price has been playing chicken with the 2 quid level for a few years but has become dangerous.

There is a slight phenomena which gives some near term hope. The BLUE downtrend on the chart dates back to September 2008. Today, this line is at 200.047p and represents the level RBS share price needs actually close below to justify hysterics. Such a triggering event will make weakness down to an initial 180p calculate as an initial point at which we’d hope for a rebound. If (when) broken, the price should eventually bottom at 150p.

Unfortunately, in the perpetual limbo dance which is RBS, we can calculate lower than 150p… To be realistic, should it ever visit the 130’s, it would become a very tempting Long position to take, just to see what will happen.

For now though, some slight hope for a near term bounce is slightly possible, due to the respect paid to the long term BLUE downtrend from 2008. If we look for immediate clues as to whether any bounce has integrity, above 207.4p calculates with an initial ambition at 211.25p. If exceeded, secondary is a bit more useful and works out at 219p. This should rebound the price to a useful level, just above the RED uptrend and hint “bottom is in”, thus giving the potential of an unusual 3rd target level at 231p, along with some almost certain hesitation.

We suspect it intends 150p eventually, once sufficient excuses for reversal accumulate.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
2:28:10PM	BRENT	61.21	61.14	60.815	60.12	62.2	62.91	63.335	64.45	61.51
2:33:38PM	GOLD	1441.19
2:36:19PM	FTSE	7402
2:45:43PM	FRANCE	5371
2:50:04PM	GERMANY	11919	11830	11751	11725	11935	11956	11993	12046	11856
2:55:47PM	US500	2934.92
2:59:21PM	DOW	26493
3:06:53PM	NASDAQ	7698.62
3:12:47PM	JAPAN	20926

 

 

2/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7407 points. Change of -2.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,006,818,506 a change of 7.38%

#DAX #SP500 We’re now in that horrible time of year, when some idiot says “how many shopping days left until ….” whereas for traders, it’s “how many market sessions until I stop pulling my hair out!”. While the markets are always mad, this year exhibits a new type of insane, one neatly shown on Thursday 1st August.

Our beef came from market movements once the FTSE closed for the day. We’d given trigger levels for the US markets, all of which managed to be exceeded in the period before 6.30pm. Quite literally, triggers were exceeded briefly by a couple of points, then it felt like someone hit the pause button. News from the USA which proved perfectly capable of trashing the Futures left an unpleasant taste as it almost felt like the markets deliberately exceeded logical trigger levels, thus capturing a bunch of orders prior to a plunge. It begs the question, isn’t this called “entrapment” in legal terms?

It can be assumed we were not amused; writing “shambles” so many times in our Prior Results column was not enjoyable.

This particular article is supposed to be about “The FTSE for Friday” but we’re a little perplexed at what the future holds. At time of writing, FTSE FUTURES are trading around 7490 points whereas the FTSE closed the session at 7581 points.

Will the FTSE, therefore, open nearly a 100 points down?

If there any point in writing “Movement now below 7535 (the opening second spike down on the 1st) looks capable of an initial 7486 points.” After all, FTSE Futures have already reached such a level whereas the FTSE itself has not. The real problem for the FTSE starts, if 7486 breaks as further reversal down to 7323 points looks valid. However, there is a pretty fair chance the market shall experience a short lived bounce around 7425, due to the presence of the prior downtrend.

We suspect the market will probably make its way down to the 7486 level and perhaps bounce a little. If this is the case, movement to an initial 7540 shall make some sense. If exceeded, secondary is at 7558 points. Should this level be bettered (remembering, we are speculating on a FTSE bounce from a level the market has not even dropped to yet!) there is a more than fair chance the drop has been an over-reaction to whatever Mr Trump did.

Curiously, any reach down to 7323 will tend suggest a coming donk against the RED uptrend, one which should generate a reasonable rebound.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:43:34PM	BRENT	61.05									Success
9:46:16PM	GOLD	1444.71									‘cess
9:50:33PM	FTSE	7503.69									Shambles
9:53:27PM	FRANCE	5474.2									‘cess
9:57:51PM	GERMANY	12073.45	12031	11992	11856	12120	12120	12141.5	12178	12058	Shambles
10:01:51PM	US500	2948.62	2944	2938	2908	2985	2977	2993.75	3001	2949	Shambles
10:04:47PM	DOW	26546									Success
10:07:10PM	NASDAQ	7780.62									‘cess
10:14:50PM	JAPAN	21028									‘cess

1/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7584 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,525,168,165 a change of -9.28%

#Nasdaq #Gold Back in June, Sirius finally hit our 13p drop target, something (link here) we’d been moaning about since February! Crucially, it did not really break target (it hit 12.98) and exhibited a half decent bounce. But price moves are proving reminiscent of AIM shares whose price sees controlled by chatroom gossip.

It starts to appear the 17p level shall prove crucial anytime soon for Sirius. In the event the share price manages trade above such a level, recovery to an initial 19.70p calculates as comfortably possible. Our secondary, if such a level bettered, computes at 25.7p and we suspect a rise will falter around such a level. Surprisingly, future recovery beyond this point looks like growth in 10p increments, something which we simply do not understand.

Otherwise, the problem level of 13p remains an issue until such time Sirius manages close a session above 18p. We’d be inclined to take this as a pretty solid movement into safety, even though the price has not exceeded BLUE on the chart.

Below 13p and it still looks like Sirius shall eventually bottom at 4p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:32:18PM	BRENT	64.29
10:34:23PM	GOLD	1414.67	1410.5	1405	1395.34	1428	1434	1441.29	1451	1414	Success
10:36:15PM	FTSE	7571.34									Success
10:38:30PM	FRANCE	5506.5									‘cess
10:41:50PM	GERMANY	12128									‘cess
10:47:25PM	US500	2973.42									Success
10:51:32PM	DOW	26826									Shambles
10:53:54PM	NASDAQ	7828.99	7769	7734	7634	7908	7908	7959.5	8023	7821	Success
10:57:26PM	JAPAN	21338									Success

31/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7586 points. Change of -0.78%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,192,499,053 a change of 21.96%

#SP500 #Japan When we last covered this potential disaster (and dodgy chart pattern) in May (link here), nerves were expressed regarding the share price future. A hopeful bottom of 82p had been designated as important, essentially as further drop potentials were really quite messy. In fact, 28p and less were mentioned as further drop targets!

Without a doubt, things have now gotten messy with the loss of their Chief Executive, a large pre-tax loss, and reportedly large numbers of customers unplugging from the company. Thankfully, their CEO was awarded a 44% pay rise in the last year, an award which will doubtless work wonders for staff moral within a company frantically attempting to put a positive spin on a pretty rotten day on the markets.

The situation now is dangerous but we are able to offer a slight glimmer of hope. The immediate situation suggests ongoing weakness below 73p should find its way to 63p next and hopefully, exhibit a bounce. Once again, we advocate extreme caution of 63p breaks as any bounce is liable to be short lived. Instead, there is the potentials for freefall down to a bottom (hopefully) at 28p.

In our opening paragraph, we mentioned a “Dodgy Chart Pattern”, something easily missed as it covers the period since 2003. The chart below shows the price has experienced a painfully clear Double Top from 2003 to 2015. Some people swear by this sort of thing, most people swear at this sort of thing but there is always the risk of Pattern Believers creating a self fulfilling prophecy. In the case of Centrica, it calculates with “Ultimate Bottom” down at 12p. We suspect most folk will be happy to fill up with Centrica shares if it ever actually achieved such a ridiculous number but, in the grand scheme of things, our own potential of 28p is pretty blooming close.

To get out of this mess, Centrica needs exceed 108p at present.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:48:50PM	BRENT	64.93									Success
9:50:57PM	GOLD	1431.01									‘cess
9:52:55PM	FTSE	7650.76
9:56:15PM	FRANCE	5499.7									Success
10:04:17PM	GERMANY	12130									Success
10:05:46PM	US500	3014.07	3000	2996.5	2986	3014	3017	3022.5	3030	3006	Success
10:12:17PM	DOW	27229.8									Success
10:19:02PM	NASDAQ	7976									Success
10:20:49PM	JAPAN	21509	21476	21457.5	21350	21535	21609	21643	21702	21542	‘cess

30/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7646 points. Change of -0.52%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,897,611,362 a change of 3.5%