#DAX #SP500 We’re now in that horrible time of year, when some idiot says “how many shopping days left until ….” whereas for traders, it’s “how many market sessions until I stop pulling my hair out!”. While the markets are always mad, this year exhibits a new type of insane, one neatly shown on Thursday 1st August.
Our beef came from market movements once the FTSE closed for the day. We’d given trigger levels for the US markets, all of which managed to be exceeded in the period before 6.30pm. Quite literally, triggers were exceeded briefly by a couple of points, then it felt like someone hit the pause button. News from the USA which proved perfectly capable of trashing the Futures left an unpleasant taste as it almost felt like the markets deliberately exceeded logical trigger levels, thus capturing a bunch of orders prior to a plunge. It begs the question, isn’t this called “entrapment” in legal terms?
It can be assumed we were not amused; writing “shambles” so many times in our Prior Results column was not enjoyable.
This particular article is supposed to be about “The FTSE for Friday” but we’re a little perplexed at what the future holds. At time of writing, FTSE FUTURES are trading around 7490 points whereas the FTSE closed the session at 7581 points.
Will the FTSE, therefore, open nearly a 100 points down?
If there any point in writing “Movement now below 7535 (the opening second spike down on the 1st) looks capable of an initial 7486 points.” After all, FTSE Futures have already reached such a level whereas the FTSE itself has not. The real problem for the FTSE starts, if 7486 breaks as further reversal down to 7323 points looks valid. However, there is a pretty fair chance the market shall experience a short lived bounce around 7425, due to the presence of the prior downtrend.
We suspect the market will probably make its way down to the 7486 level and perhaps bounce a little. If this is the case, movement to an initial 7540 shall make some sense. If exceeded, secondary is at 7558 points. Should this level be bettered (remembering, we are speculating on a FTSE bounce from a level the market has not even dropped to yet!) there is a more than fair chance the drop has been an over-reaction to whatever Mr Trump did.
Curiously, any reach down to 7323 will tend suggest a coming donk against the RED uptrend, one which should generate a reasonable rebound.
|
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
|
9:43:34PM |
BRENT |
61.05 |
Success | ||||||||
|
9:46:16PM |
GOLD |
1444.71 |
‘cess | ||||||||
|
9:50:33PM |
FTSE |
7503.69 |
Shambles | ||||||||
|
9:53:27PM |
FRANCE |
5474.2 |
‘cess | ||||||||
|
9:57:51PM |
GERMANY |
12073.45 |
12031 |
11992 |
11856 |
12120 |
12120 |
12141.5 |
12178 |
12058 |
Shambles |
|
10:01:51PM |
US500 |
2948.62 |
2944 |
2938 |
2908 |
2985 |
2977 |
2993.75 |
3001 |
2949 |
Shambles |
|
10:04:47PM |
DOW |
26546 |
Success | ||||||||
|
10:07:10PM |
NASDAQ |
7780.62 |
‘cess | ||||||||
|
10:14:50PM |
JAPAN |
21028 |
‘cess |