World Market Thoughts for 9/12/2019

#DAX #Brent A regular complaint relates to the quantity of media market “experts” queuing up for interviews with prophecies about the end of the world being nigh. In the media, where quantity has no relationship to quality, we thought it perhaps an idea to examine some world markets, trying to define areas where some hesitation appears probable.

Staying close to home, the Euro Stocks 50 (presently trading around 3,690 points, is presently flirting with something we call a “stutter level”, a point at which a glass ceiling will often form. In the case of the EU50, this problem level has been evident since 2017 at 3,685 points and is finally starting to show some sign of hopefully breaking free and move upward. If our thoughts on this scenario are correct, movement now above 3,732 points calculates with an initial ambition at 3,975 points. Only with closure above such a level dare we mention “top” should prove to be around the 4,300 level. Certainly, we’re should this point as an ideal number to try a short with a fairly tight stop at 4,325 if gullible or 4,400 if sane. If historical experience is anything to go by, reversal could see a journey to the 3,000 point level!

Hey, chart goes here

The Nasdaq – or US Tech 100 – is presenting an interesting scenario. We’ve a strong argument which favours something traumatic, should the market achieve 8,634 points. While we can calculate a secondary at 9,475 points, we suspect real life shall intrude, especially as the market is already pretty close to our 8,634 target already. Anything now beyond 8,450 looks capable of reaching this level.

The US Market is always quite prescient when approaching major target levels, thankfully often showing a willingness to bypass them by simply gapping the index upward at the open repeatedly. If a cunning plan is to be enacted, it shall be worth watching for these gaps appearing anytime now!

We’re intending spend this week running the numbers against various world indices.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:19:38PM

BRENT

64.12

62.58

62.045

61.18

63.74

64.28

64.59

64.88

63.2

‘cess

10:22:03PM

GOLD

1460.69

               

4:38:58PM

FTSE

7232

               

‘cess

4:40:56PM

FRANCE

5871

               

‘cess

4:43:11PM

GERMANY

13175.02

13052

13001

12941

13135

13181

13199

13220

13111

4:55:14PM

US500

3145.42

               

Success

4:57:58PM

DOW

28024.7

               

Success

5:06:46PM

NASDAQ

8401.37

               

Success

5:08:45PM

JAPAN

23516

               

‘cess

 

 

6/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7239 points. Change of 1.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,814,897,408 a change of -16.68%

5/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7137 points. Change of -0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,778,792,615 a change of 2.21%

4/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7188 points. Change of 0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,653,961,334 a change of -20.69%

3/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7158 points. Change of -1.74%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,128,755,265 a change of 21.45%

2/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7285 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,869,768,076 a change of 26.83%

29/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7346 points. Change of -0.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,628,092,745 a change of 28.25%

28/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7416 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,608,679,537 a change of -31.8%

FTSE for FRIDAY 6/12/2019

#FTSE for FRIDAY, our most popular regular article is now read from Australia to Russia, Reunion Island, Argentina, China and of course the UK and USA. We currently number 41 countries visiting on a Friday. As is said, “No pressure then!”, while writing a cheery near term outlook with a chart more colourful that a childs Xmas card.

Firstly, we need find the all important FTSE Big Number, the point which the market needs break to trash the uptrend (RED) since the crash of 2009. At present, it’s at 6,609 points.

Next, we need review the uptrend (Yellow) since the start of 2016 and it’s at 6875 points.

Finally, we’ve got the uptrend (Green) since the Brexit vote, presently lurking at 6816 points.

Armed with the above 3 numbers, we can decide if the UK stock market is on the verge of collapse. As it’s presently at 7,137, the answer is clearly NO despite suffering a pretty grotty week. The usual suspects can be blamed, the three ‘B’s. Boris, Brexit, and Mr Trump.

Fans of chart patterns (thankfully now following the dinosaurs) will have noted the Head & Shoulders formation on the FTSE during this year. Conventional arithmetic attributed to this pattern suggests the market should relax to 6,607 points. This risks breaking all three major trends, causing a rush for clean underwear. Presently, there is very little making such a drop inevitable. Below 7,000 points would certainly justify some panic though.

However, we do have concerns, thanks to recent movements.

At present, weakness now below 7,130 points risks reversal to an initial 7,098 points. If broken, secondary calculates at 7,026 points. Even visually, there are several reasons to anticipate a rebound, should 7,026 appear. With an election approaching and a fear of “the wrong result”, travel down to such a level makes a lot of sense prior to The Vote. In the event this 7,026 drop target appears and opting for a blind “Long” position, stop needs be pretty wide at 6,950 points.

There’s an issue, should 6,950 break. This would imply a further trip down to 6,844 and probable rebound against the Brexit Vote uptrend in Green.

Additionally, we need consider another factor. Writing about market movements, tossing in loads of numbers, risks utter confusion to the reader as it certainly provokes “number blindness” in the writer. Therefore, with this excellent excuse to pause for a cup of tea, shall return in a moment…

Now armed with a fresh cup of tea, obviously rarely do things move in an utterly straight line, resulting in the scenario of anything near term above 7,181 allegedly being capable of triggering recovery to an initial 7,212 points. If exceeded, secondary calculates at a more interesting 7,261 points. If triggered, the tightest stop is horribly wide at 7,131 points.

Have a good weekend.

Hey, chart goes here
Big Picture FTSE
FREE FIRST MOVE FRIDAY!

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:11:45PM

BRENT

63.27

62.37

61.98

   

63.86

64.29

   

‘cess

9:19:07PM

GOLD

1476.33

1472

1466

   

1480

1482

   

Shambles

9:24:53PM

FTSE

7142.32

7127

7099.5

   

7203

7222.5

   

9:27:15PM

FRANCE

5808.9

5785

5767.5

   

5850

5866

   

Success

9:35:58PM

GERMANY

13080

13049

12997

   

13148

13207.5

   

Shambles

9:37:46PM

US500

3117.92

3102

3097.5

   

3120

3126

   

9:42:24PM

DOW

27683

27552

27487.5

   

27772

27830

   

Shambles

9:44:25PM

NASDAQ

8307.37

8268

8255.5

   

8336

8359.5

   

Shambles

9:46:38PM

JAPAN

23311

23244

23167.5

   

23405

23466.5

   

‘cess

 

5/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7137 points. Change of -0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,778,792,615 a change of 2.21%

4/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7188 points. Change of 0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,653,961,334 a change of -20.69%

3/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7158 points. Change of -1.74%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,128,755,265 a change of 21.45%

2/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7285 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,869,768,076 a change of 26.83%

29/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7346 points. Change of -0.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,628,092,745 a change of 28.25%

28/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7416 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,608,679,537 a change of -31.8%

27/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7429 points. Change of 0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,291,535,835 a change of -43.03%

 

M&C Saatchi 5/12/2019

#Nasdaq #Dax As the latest company to discover “accounting errors”, Saatchi share price has plummeted and prompted a few emails. One puzzle has been finally answered, the reason why large corporate accountants seem to change their names? After all, being associated with a major ‘oops’ certainly justifies a swift adjustment of identification. The current acronyms investigating Saatchi, PwC, were brought in once the previous acronym KPMG were dismissed.

Perhaps someone at KPMG shall now suggest the company use their full name in future, to dissociate themselves from the Saachi debacle. After all, Price Waterhouse Coopers successfully left a few scandals behind with their rebranding… All joking aside, there are currently just 4 true international auditors, 3 of which are UK based with KPMG being Netherlands. Corporate bodies are not spoiled for choice, when choosing their auditors.

The writer should perhaps admit to grinding an axe, once paying a large tax sum which could have been substantially reduced, blissfully unaware corporate accountants (mentioned previously) were treating his personal tax liability as “small fry”. Twenty years later, it still irritates.

Hey, chart goes here

Saatchi share price movements, while dire, appear to be provoking discussion about a possible takeover attempts anytime now. From our viewpoint, the share has not yet reached bottom as it appears on track for 40p. Certainly, we would expect a bounce around such a level, if only due to it being impossible to calculate below such a point. To get out of trouble, any miracle rebound needs exceed 161p currently, visually an impossible task without the presence of game changing news.

We suspect, quite strongly, this shall prove worth keeping a close eye on in the days/weeks ahead. While the low on the 4th of 69p was certainly “close” to our 40p calculation, from an immediate perspective below 69p should initially target 63p as “last chance saloon”. If 63p breaks, a journey down to the 40p level looks inevitable.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:43:01PM

BRENT

62.89

               

Success

11:02:16PM

GOLD

1475.41

               

11:04:07PM

FTSE

7196.15

               

11:06:35PM

FRANCE

5808.8

               

Success

11:09:21PM

GERMANY

13155.74

13022

12964.5

12895

13088

13174

13208.25

13249

13098

‘cess

11:11:09PM

US500

3111.42

               

‘cess

11:14:08PM

DOW

27653.6

               

Success

11:16:24PM

NASDAQ

8298.07

               

‘cess

11:18:48PM

JAPAN

23355

23172

23119.5

23033

23313

23379

23416

23591

23236

 

4/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7188 points. Change of 0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,653,961,334 a change of -20.69%

3/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7158 points. Change of -1.74%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,128,755,265 a change of 21.45%

2/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7285 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,869,768,076 a change of 26.83%

29/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7346 points. Change of -0.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,628,092,745 a change of 28.25%

28/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7416 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,608,679,537 a change of -31.8%

27/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7429 points. Change of 0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,291,535,835 a change of -43.03%

26/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,287,781,943 a change of 67.52%

Greggs PLC 4/12/2019

#CAC40 #SP500 Our attempt at being funny with a Xmas Calendar has ‘kinda’ fallen apart with the markets experiencing a truly grotty start to December. Even Greggs, purveyors of future waistline problems, are looking slightly dodgy, despite rumours suggesting they are doing the catering for the Nato lunch at Buck House!

Hey, chart goes here

It appears anything near term below 2004 on Greggs should find a bottom, ideally prior to 1885p. Should 1885 break for any reason, the share price “almost” must bounce at 1839p as the implications below such a level look about as unpleasant as that pie vendor beside the main entrance to Waterloo. Or to be plain, 1432 becomes the best hope for surprise recovery, though the Big Picture tells us bottom should end up at 1020p. Hopefully this scenario is unlikely. Painting a picture where a share price halves always feels like a venture into panic mongering.

More hopeful appears any rebound capable of exceeding 2150p should bring the share price up faster than an undiagnosed Coeliac (the gluten thing) looking for a loo, after eating a Greggs sandwich. Initially, we’re calculating growth to 2274p but visually, our secondary calculation of 2458 looks very realistic.

Hey, chart goes here
FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:38:17PM

BRENT

60.93

               

‘cess

9:40:50PM

GOLD

1477.85

               

Success

10:05:47PM

FTSE

7185.67

               

Success

10:18:12PM

FRANCE

5758.9

5695

5681.5

5586

5772

5772

5776

5803

5710

Success

10:20:41PM

GERMANY

13055.56

               

Shambles

10:23:42PM

US500

3092.12

3069

3059

3045

3107

3104

3109

3126

3079

Success

10:26:54PM

DOW

27495

               

Success

10:30:15PM

NASDAQ

8254.07

               

Success

10:32:29PM

JAPAN

23122

               

Success

 

3/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7158 points. Change of -1.74%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,128,755,265 a change of 21.45%

2/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7285 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,869,768,076 a change of 26.83%

29/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7346 points. Change of -0.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,628,092,745 a change of 28.25%

28/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7416 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,608,679,537 a change of -31.8%

27/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7429 points. Change of 0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,291,535,835 a change of -43.03%

26/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,287,781,943 a change of 67.52%

25/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,544,320,565 a change of 6.78%

Sirius Minerals 3/12/2019

#GOLD #DOW Sirius HAD been getting painful, achieving and even breaking our prior (link) drop target at 3.3p. However… it is possible the share is now preening itself in the hope of providing a little Christmas miracle. Aside from the unpleasant detail it’s now calculating with an “ultimate” bottom of minus 17p!

Hey, chart goes here

However, if we leave the dreadful reality of real life aside and instead, review movements since May of this year, SXX has managed exceed the immediate downtrend (presently at 3.41255p) and thankfully has spent the last few sessions hovering just above the trend, rather than retreat below. Without a doubt, it is “fingers crossed” time as movement now above 3.9p is supposed to generate a lift to 4.3p next. As the inset highlights, it appears clear the market is reacting to the trend, so hopefully the price can find an excuse to do something positive.

If movement exceeds 4.3p on any initial upward surge, our secondary calculates at 5p.

Visually, such an ambition makes sense as it takes the share price into the region from September, when the price was manipulated downward to 4.7p. It’s the sort of price level where the market would opt to form a glass ceiling until such time Sirius’ hopes for the future improve.

Then again, there is that Minus 17p calculation. Numbers can be funny as presently, SXX actually needs above 17p to essentially cancel this Big Picture drop potential. In fact, even above 13p would regain the historical uptrend, giving considerable hope for the longer term. We’d certainly have strong concerns, if the price manages retreat below the Blue downtrend at 3.41 (as in, actually close below the trend) thanks to reversals becoming very probable. In such a scenario, last chance salon is at 1.4p.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:26:15PM

BRENT

60.81

               

10:28:27PM

GOLD

1462.79

1452

1447.5

1441

1462

1467

1469.5

1476

1456

10:31:25PM

FTSE

7296.29

               

Success

10:36:49PM

FRANCE

5796.7

               

Success

10:40:35PM

GERMANY

12991.3

               

Suc/Sham

10:52:14PM

US500

3113.77

               

Success

10:55:07PM

DOW

27783.4

27768

27670

27645

27848

27910

27970

28035

27800

Success

10:58:41PM

NASDAQ

8308

               

Success

11:01:21PM

JAPAN

23177

               

Success

2/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7285 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,869,768,076 a change of 26.83%

29/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7346 points. Change of -0.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,628,092,745 a change of 28.25%

28/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7416 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,608,679,537 a change of -31.8%

27/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7429 points. Change of 0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,291,535,835 a change of -43.03%

26/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,287,781,943 a change of 67.52%

25/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,544,320,565 a change of 6.78%

22/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 1.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,192,412,665 a change of -5.45%

Rockfire Resources 2/12/2019

#Brent #Dax As it’s December and sometimes, share prices can do silly things, we’re choosing a different oddball every day to hopefully illustrate a near term trade possibility. When we open the Advent Calendar, Rockfire Res. are behind the 2nd door and thankfully, it indeed has some potentials showing.

Hey, chart goes here

Rockfire closed last week at 1.35 and visually, now needs above just 1.6p to make further growth likely. Such a scenario calculates with an initial target at 2.12p, an ambition which makes sense from a charty perspective. As can be seen quite clearly, the share has experienced a Glass Ceiling just above the 2p level since August 2016.

This time, if the usual nonsense of “the 3rd break is the keeper” proves correct, above 2.12p computes with 2.9p but to be honest, if positive news is involved (or indeed positive sentiment in internet chatrooms) the share price could easily accelerate to a silly sounding 3.88p, several magnitudes above the current share price. Unfortunately, there is plenty of room for the market to play games, thanks to the price requiring drill below 0.5p to utterly stuff the growth potentials.

If we were to identify a price level which should give early warning of looming trouble, it appears below 0.89 should justify some real concerns.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

11:32:53PM

BRENT

60.77

60.33

60.015

58.81

61.67

62.28

62.73

63.61

60.98

Success

11:34:49PM

GOLD

1464.3

               

Success

6:45:50PM

FTSE

7342

               

Success

6:48:13PM

FRANCE

5897

               

Shambles

6:49:57PM

GERMANY

13232

13163

13130

13068

13250

13294

13323.5

13377

13214

Success

6:52:29PM

NASDAQ

8419.12

               

6:55:15PM

US500

3144.52

               

6:58:41PM

DOW

28074.5

               

7:09:12PM

JAPAN

23320

               

‘cess

29/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7346 points. Change of -0.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,628,092,745 a change of 28.25%

28/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7416 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,608,679,537 a change of -31.8%

27/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7429 points. Change of 0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,291,535,835 a change of -43.03%

26/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,287,781,943 a change of 67.52%

25/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,544,320,565 a change of 6.78%

22/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 1.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,192,412,665 a change of -5.45%

21/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7238 points. Change of -0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,491,994,018 a change of -12.81%

FTSE for FRIDAY 29/11/2019

#FTSE #GOLD As the US rendered homage to turkeys while the UK PM paid homage to a chicken, markets experienced a pretty muted day. However, the Dow Jones remains optimistic and closed before Thanksgiving in useful territory for the near future. Hopefully the rally potentials continue.

For the DOW, now above 28,175 calculates with the potential of an initial 28,315 points. If exceeded, our secondary calculation comes out with 28,430 points. But realistically, this need not be the end of the story thanks to 29,125 points now lazing around in the clouds and claiming it’s a longer term attraction.

All kidding aside, in the event 29,125 ever makes an appearance, there’s a pretty good argument favouring a short position as we’d not be shocked to witness a 1,000 point tumble, once sufficient excuse had been invented to panic the markets. While we’re being cynical, somehow or other this sort of thing actually does happen.

As for the FTSE for FRIDAY, despite the index experiencing a lacklustre Thursday (we suspect, due to the US being closed), the FTSE certainly looks capable of some continued growth. We’ve a couple of small alarm bells ringing thanks to the market showing considerable hesitation exceeding 7,450 points but at present, the near term numbers come out as; Movement above 7,420 calculates with an initial useless ambition of 7,436 points. If exceeded, our secondary is at 7,466.

This scenario shall better the 7,450 level and create a new high (since August) on a Friday, generally not the most suitable day for exuberant behaviour.

If trouble is planned, reversal below 7,385 looks capable of an initial 7,350 points. If broken on any initial surge downward, our longer term secondary is at 7,323 points and hopefully a rebound.

Have a good weekend. It’s the final F1 of the season, probably a boring race as everything is already decided!

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:49:32PM

BRENT

63.32

62.52

62.35

   

63.37

63.55

   

10:51:33PM

GOLD

1456.3

1452

1444.5

   

1459

1461

   

10:57:17PM

FTSE

7412.31

7383

7371

   

7420

7432

   

Success

10:59:08PM

FRANCE

5915.7

5898

5887

   

5919

5925

   

Success

11:00:54PM

GERMANY

13255.36

13213

13201

   

13268

13282.5

   

11:02:37PM

US500

3151.32

3141

3137

   

3152

3154.5

   

11:04:33PM

DOW

28118.7

28067

28020

   

28142

28174

   

11:13:18PM

NASDAQ

8442.87

8409

8397

   

8444

8455.5

   

11:14:54PM

JAPAN

23468

23375

23317.5

   

23485

23525

   

 

28/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7416 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,608,679,537 a change of -31.8%

27/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7429 points. Change of 0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,291,535,835 a change of -43.03%

26/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of 0.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,287,781,943 a change of 67.52%

25/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,544,320,565 a change of 6.78%

22/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 1.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,192,412,665 a change of -5.45%

21/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7238 points. Change of -0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,491,994,018 a change of -12.81%

20/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7262 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,298,819,044 a change of 17.12%