FTSE for FRIDAY 17/01/2020

#France #Nasdaq Since Dec 27th, the FTSE has experienced a 100 point range. This feeling of a “trapped market” hopefully has a chance to ease on Friday 17 Jan with the 3rd Friday intra-day auction at 10:15am. This exercise is designed to correct the value of the FTSE 100 index, clearing up any drift. Sometimes, it can also clear the log jam of a stalled market place.

We can hope! The fly in the ointment comes volumes traded through London being pretty low, thanks to the usual holiday malaise and this lack of trading tends ensure the FTSE Index value doesn’t drift too far from reality with little correction required. When this is considered, in conjunction with the lack of any real direction on the London index, we’re slightly lacking in confidence giving numbers today.

The market should be going up but isn’t. Equally, when reversals are triggered, the market is failing to drop.

The immediate situation for the FTSE calculates as follows. Movement now exceeding 7,651 is supposed to generate a loft to an initial 7,678 points, far from impressive. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at 7,729 points.

Alternately, if the FTSE now finds an excuse to stumble below 7,587 points, it’s supposed to experience some reversal to an initial 7,567 points with secondary, if broken, down at 7,539 points. This sort of nonsense keeps the UK market safely constrained within the straightjacket of a trapped market.

It’s almost like the FTSE is awaiting something important happening before showing its hand. As mentioned earlier, the underlying forces are of an upward expectation, the market needing below 7,225 points to force us to question our optimism for the future. Unless something punctures the 7,225 level, there’s a growing series of calculations suggesting the UK could even aspire to a high of 8,300 points sometime this year.

Near term, we’re far from confident with our expectations, suspecting Friday shall bring some reversals. This will even tie in with the index refusing to better BLUE on the chart, the downtrend since 2018.

 Have a good weekend.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:20:59PM

BRENT

64.19

               

10:22:43PM

GOLD

1553.08

               

10:27:23PM

FTSE

7624.23

               

10:30:49PM

FRANCE

6050.5

6018

6007.5

5991

6044

6052

6059

6072

6024

10:34:42PM

GERMANY

13469

               

Shambles

10:38:41PM

US500

3317.32

               

Success

10:41:33PM

DOW

29297

               

‘cess

10:47:00PM

NASDAQ

9126.12

9045

9026.5

8993

9082

9127

9135

9147

9060

‘cess

10:49:27PM

JAPAN

24087

               

Success

16/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7609 points. Change of -0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,252,079,163 a change of -22.59%

15/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7642 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,784,341,362 a change of 13.94%

14/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,954,176,416 a change of 15.24%

13/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7617 points. Change of 0.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,166,914,509 a change of -0.84%

10/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,210,689,793 a change of -8.73%

9/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7598 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,708,798,775 a change of 5.62%

8/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7574 points. Change of 0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,992,564 a change of 14%

Galliford Try 16/01/2020

#SP500 #DOW Despite a company name like a quaint pub, beside a slow river on a summer day, Gallifords share price moves are proving less than alluring. Our previous report (link) was loaded with concern as the share price risked a traumatic drop. Starting this year with reversal from 8 quid to 103p justified our concern, along with raising further concerns for the future.

Shareholders are probably pretty aggravated about both the drop and the method employed. The share price was gapped (manipulated) upward above the downtrend since 2017, mid way through last December. Generally, this sort of price movement gives considerable optimism for the longer term, indicating the market wants the price to head upward. Of course, in this instance, it all went wrong with the official Share Exchange Ratio & Listing Details announcement at the start of this year.

By any standards, price movements have become messy and the share needs above 173p to give hope of recovery up to an initial 211p. Above 211p and we shall need revisit the numbers.

The “bottom” of 103p achieved at the start of this year was, according to our calculations, pretty concise. GFRD cannot afford movement below 103p at present as we cannot calculate further drop targets. With a share price being moved down, exactly to the 103p level, we’ve some hope the price shall simply mess around until news flow from the company provides genuine force to drive the share.

As a result, weakness anytime now below 150 risks reversal to an initial 138p. If broken, secondary is at 120p and hopefully a bounce.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:11:01PM

BRENT

63.81

               

10:12:57PM

GOLD

1556.9

               

Success

10:15:11PM

FTSE

7631.68

               

10:17:25PM

FRANCE

6021

               

Shambles

10:19:07PM

GERMANY

13419.91

               

10:20:51PM

US500

3293.77

3274

3265

3254

3294

3298

3302.5

3312

3280

‘cess

10:24:34PM

DOW

29079

28835

28736.5

28604

28988

29135

29194.5

29337

28958

10:26:12PM

NASDAQ

9048.12

               

10:28:09PM

JAPAN

23955

               

 

15/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7642 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,784,341,362 a change of 13.94%

14/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,954,176,416 a change of 15.24%

13/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7617 points. Change of 0.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,166,914,509 a change of -0.84%

10/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,210,689,793 a change of -8.73%

9/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7598 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,708,798,775 a change of 5.62%

8/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7574 points. Change of 0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,992,564 a change of 14%

7/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7573 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,303,337 a change of 0.44%

Coca Cola 15/01/2020

#FTSE #DOW Young grandchildren bring surprising gifts at Xmas. Perhaps the most memorable has been the gift of a rotten cold which refuses to go away. When kids leave the germ factory which is a school, why are they not decontaminated? The other surprise was the death of Coca Cola!

Despite laying in supplies for the childrens stay over the festive period, the news neither of the girls drink Coke justified raised eyebrows, not least due to the collection of 2 litre bottles awaiting their attention. For some reason, our grandchildren transited to the land of Pepsi, preferably straight from the fridge. Opting to taste the stuff provoked a real surprise, instantly transported back to childhood and questioning why anyone actually drinks Coke?

Chilled Pepsi, it transpires, is quite nice! But the jury is firmly out, it’s flavour proving slightly overwhelming when used as a mixer.

A resolution to review Coke’s share price, mildly curious whether the rest of the world has experienced a similar taste conversion, has finally been enacted and to our surprise, it appears Coke still has some fizz left in it. Currently, above 2,730 looks capable of a climb up to an initial 2,856p. If exceeded, our secondary is a useful looking 2,948p.

The reason we “like” 2,948p is closure above this point is liable to be game changing for the longer term, taking Coke’s share price into a region where a new all time high of 3,370 becomes very possible. Unfortunately, visually it appears 2,856 should prove perfectly capable of giving a stutter in the current rising cycle.

If Coke opts to have a Mentos moment, below 2,350 looks troubling as reversal to an initial 2,182 becomes expected. Secondary, when broken, is a bottom (hopefully) at 1,825p.

(Though if you want a real Mentos moment with coke, squirting lighter gas into a 3/4 full bottle provokes an energetic rocket. Do not try indoors or anywhere near anything which can be broken. Guess who got into trouble with grand-kids parents…)

Hey, chart goes here
FUTURES
Time Issued Market Price At Issue Short Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Long Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Prior
9:37:56PM BRENT 64.1                
9:40:00PM GOLD 1546.52                 ‘cess
9:52:29PM FTSE 7636 7579 7553.5 7521 7633 7651 7724.5 7810 7586 Shambles
9:54:36PM FRANCE 6040.5                 ‘cess
9:56:40PM GERMANY 13467                 ‘cess
9:58:50PM US500 3287.12                 ‘cess
10:11:42PM DOW 28966 28765 28713 28601 28970 29002 29074 29177 28864 Shambles
10:14:28PM NASDAQ 9049.87                
10:16:15PM JAPAN 23995                 ‘cess

 

 

14/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,954,176,416 a change of 15.24%

13/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7617 points. Change of 0.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,166,914,509 a change of -0.84%

10/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,210,689,793 a change of -8.73%

9/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7598 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,708,798,775 a change of 5.62%

8/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7574 points. Change of 0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,992,564 a change of 14%

7/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7573 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,303,337 a change of 0.44%

6/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7575 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,720,635,792 a change of 0%

Aston Martin 14/01/2020

#Gold #Nasdaq As we count down to this years Formula 1 season (61 days), remembering we haven’t updated our thoughts on Aston Martin (sponsors of Red Bull Racing), gave sufficient excuse to scare ourselves silly with the shares price potentials.

Since the launch in 2018, Aston Martin’ share price has performed pretty dismally, sliding downhill from highs of 19 quid to lows below 4 quid. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like the gloom has ended. Presently trading around the 460p mark, weakness now below 382p threatens further reversal to an initial 290p. If broken, secondary is a bottom at 170p and we cannot calculate below such a point.

Strange to report, for an age we’d been thinking this would bottom at the 4 pound level, eventually embracing our gullible nature with a mistaken belief it would probably hit 5 pounds. However, the share price opted to perform in accordance with the downward pressure since the launch, breaking 4 pounds on several occasions. We tend lack confidence when big picture targets are placed under pressure repeatedly, making us fear 170p risks taking its place on the podium.

However, there has been a pretty well defined downtrend and the share price now need exceed 570p to give a solid impression the rot has stopped. Above this level creates a scenario where miracle recovery to an initial 719 makes sense. If exceeded, our longer term secondary is at 860p.

For now, similar to Ferrari in F1, with AML’s share price we expect the worst. And hope for the best anyway!

Hey, chart goes here
FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:43:25PM

BRENT

63.88

               

‘cess

9:50:18PM

GOLD

1548.31

1546

1539

1526

1556

1556

1558

1562

1546

9:55:11PM

FTSE

7624.71

               

10:25:26PM

FRANCE

6037.7

               

10:27:13PM

GERMANY

13476

               

‘cess

10:28:56PM

US500

3287.92

               

10:32:03PM

DOW

28897

               

10:34:54PM

NASDAQ

9074.12

8968

8936

8888

9011

9080

9101.5

9123

8986

‘cess

10:36:49PM

JAPAN

23945

               

‘cess

 

13/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7617 points. Change of 0.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,166,914,509 a change of -0.84%

10/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,210,689,793 a change of -8.73%

9/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7598 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,708,798,775 a change of 5.62%

8/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7574 points. Change of 0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,992,564 a change of 14%

7/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7573 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,303,337 a change of 0.44%

6/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7575 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,720,635,792 a change of 0%

3/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,912,167,844 a change of 0%

Kingfisher 13/01/2020

#Brent #DAX When the US President, Mr Trump, recently moaned about the poor quality of modern toilet flushes, there was a definite “hold on a minute” in-house as we’d made an identical comment, one alas ignored by the worlds media. It was June last year (link) and an article about Kingfisher (aka B&Q), along with the reasons their share price was going to flush itself down to 184p.

We were correct about modern toilets and their illusory water savings and oh, yes, we were also correct about 184p as a rebound level.

Importantly, our 184p drop ambition was not breached, this giving the hope the current (somewhat moderate) rebound shall prove to have some integrity. The immediate situation suggests above 230p should now aim for an initial 240p with secondary, if bettered, calculating at a longer term 267p. Visually, it appears any rise risks foundering at the 267p as there’s little doubt a glass ceiling awaits at such a level.

That’s about the end of any positive spin on this story as we’re nervous at the slavish attention being paid to the downtrend since 2018. It has created the situation, where weakness now below the trend (208 presently) signals the prospect of reversal to an initial 197p with secondary, when broken, down at 175p. The secondary level scares us more than a modern WC as it takes the price into a region with 141p as “bottom”.

Hey, chart goes here
FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

7:52:28PM

BRENT

64.77

64.51

64.08

63.13

65.76

65.76

66.145

66.75

64.57

7:54:52PM

GOLD

1562.49

               

8:08:11PM

FTSE

7570.69

               

Shambles

8:29:00PM

FRANCE

6017

               

9:48:39PM

GERMANY

13447.65

13430

13413

13379

13519

13555

13628

13688

13433

10:20:41PM

US500

3263.42

               

Shambles

10:23:09PM

DOW

28806

               

‘cess

10:35:22PM

NASDAQ

8962.12

               

‘cess

10:37:34PM

JAPAN

23684

               

‘cess

 

10/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,210,689,793 a change of -8.73%

9/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7598 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,708,798,775 a change of 5.62%

8/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7574 points. Change of 0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,992,564 a change of 14%

7/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7573 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,303,337 a change of 0.44%

6/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7575 points. Change of -0.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,720,635,792 a change of 20.67%

3/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,912,167,844 a change of 0%

30/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,213,676,764 a change of 0%

FTSE for FRIDAY 10/01/2020

#FTSE #DOW #GOLD By any standards, this has been a strange week. A combination of the markets, still not approaching decent trading volumes, along with this weeks “Iran” headlines, gave a media impression the markets faces a meltdown. Quite the converse has happened. The FTSE wants to reach 7,850 allegedly!

However, it’s worth remembering (as if anyone could forget) this is January, traditionally a month packed full of contrary behaviour. A month, topped off with The World Economic Forum (aka Ski Trip) in Davos which often witnesses a dip in world markets prior to a surprise surge around the Davos event and all sorts of exhuberance during China’s week long New Year holiday. What has surprised (so far), events in Iran appeared to be providing a reasonable excuse for market reversal prior to the month end and Davos. Instead, we’ve seen a series of pretty average days this week, followed by a Thursday which almost felt exuberant at times.

So, what’s ahead for Friday?

Below 7,591 looks fairly troubling, apparently capable of reversal to an initial 7,568 points. If broken, secondary calculates at 7,557 points and this gets troubling, taking the UK index into a region where very little excuse is needed to crash it down to the 7,500 level. If triggered, tightest stop is at 7,620 points.

The alternate scenario looks at the possibility of London trading above 7,634 points. Such a scenario apparently expects some growth to an initial 7,661 points. If exceeded, secondary on the immediate cycle calculates at 7,682 points. Visually, the initial target makes sense but the jury is out on the secondary, despite the longer term attraction from 7,850.

Despite this being the first complete week of 2020, market volumes are still rather low. Hopefully next week witnesses some real flamboyance on the market.

Hey, chart goes here
FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:03:49PM

BRENT

65.13

64.3

63.67

 

65.78

66.15

66.545

 

64.96

10:06:07PM

GOLD

1552.81

1544

1539

 

1559

1561

1565

 

1551

‘cess

10:08:04PM

FTSE

7618.39

7566

7553.5

 

7618

7627

7635

 

7566

10:10:12PM

FRANCE

6050

6006

5980.5

 

6035

6071

6078

 

6011

10:21:58PM

GERMANY

13510.75

13382

13362.5

 

13514

13520

13536

 

13450

‘cess

10:25:21PM

US500

3275.02

3261

3258.5

 

3274

3277

3288

 

3255

‘cess

10:32:06PM

DOW

28961

28820

28755.5

 

28970

28985

29026

 

28832

Success

10:33:51PM

NASDAQ

8994.62

8914

8900

 

8977

9005

9026.75

 

8914

Success

10:36:48PM

JAPAN

23774

23632

23600.5

 

23786

23786

23809

 

23660

‘cess

 

9/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7598 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,708,798,775 a change of 5.62%

8/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7574 points. Change of 0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,992,564 a change of 14%

7/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7573 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,303,337 a change of 0.44%

6/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7575 points. Change of -0.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,720,635,792 a change of 20.67%

3/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,912,167,844 a change of 0%

30/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,213,676,764 a change of 0%

Bitcoin 9/01/2020

#France #SP500 When we last reviewed #Bitcoin in November, we suggested the possibility of a bottom at 5920. Amazingly, the crypto is on the verge of utterly nonsensing the prospect as it tries to mimic Gold as a “safe haven” for a nervous market. Thus far, we’re surprised at the lack of hysterics in wider markets, starting to suspect whether “the Iran Thing” is being taken seriously.

Gold, for instance, despite popping up to say ‘Hi’ to 1,611 is starting to show alarming signs of reversal. At time of writing, it’s trading around 1,560, signalling the potential of a bottom around 1,527 dollars. In fact, a true loss of fear against Middle East events could swiftly permit a meltdown to the 1,500 dollar level.

Therefore, despite the usual informed pundits jumping on the bandwagon and pulling target levels from nowhere, promising Bitcoin will doubtless head up to insane levels, we’ve pretty severe doubts. Visually, the chart gives some immediate problems. There’s a downtrend in Blue which appears to be provoking immediate reversal. In addition, there’s the uptrend in Red which also is presenting some sort of wall to fend of price rises.

Our computer claims, should Bitcoin now trade beyond 8470, we should anticipate travel up to an initial 8952 dollars. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 9130 dollars. The close proximity of both target levels suggest some sort of hesitation should be expected, if they actually make an appearance.

The alternate, reversal, scenario starts to look more likely. Weakness now below 7850 could swiftly drive the price downhill to an initial 7550 dollars. If broken, it should hopefully bottom by the 7050 dollar level.

No-one ever said Bitcoin is easy!

Hey, chart goes here
FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:03:53PM

BRENT

65.71

               

Success

10:05:36PM

GOLD

1557.03

               

Success

10:26:46PM

FTSE

7598.1

               

Shambles

10:30:02PM

FRANCE

6041.7

5991

5967.5

5936

6049

6062

6089

6129

6000

10:33:08PM

GERMANY

13388

               

Success

10:35:48PM

US500

3259.57

3221

3205.5

3185

3246

3267

3271

3284

3235

Success

10:38:45PM

DOW

28804

               

Success

10:41:10PM

NASDAQ

8930.37

               

Success

10:49:00PM

JAPAN

23512

               

‘cess

 

8/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7574 points. Change of 0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,992,564 a change of 14%

7/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7573 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,303,337 a change of 0.44%

6/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7575 points. Change of -0.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,720,635,792 a change of 20.67%

3/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7622 points. Change of 0.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,912,167,844 a change of 21.73%

30/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7587 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,213,676,764 a change of 0%

27/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7644 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 2,906,900,069 a change of 0%