FTSE Big Pic 10/04/2020

#FTSE #DOW Usually, we’d be doing mental handstands, the period between Xmas and the Easter market break usually dragging on for years. This time, we were taken completely unawares by Easter, utterly surprised at the market closing on Friday and Monday. Where did that come from? Hopefully, we’re not the only folk aghast at the sudden appearance of a ‘holiday’. For us, the penny finally dropped once the US closed on Thursday.

Of course, we can’t actually do anything for the ‘holiday’. The demon grand-daughters cannot visit but equally, we can’t pack the dogs into the car and grab a ferry to an island with a decent beach and BBQ potentials. Absolutely nothing shall differentiate this weekend from every other recently except, perhaps, the weather.

 

On the other hand, the FTSE managed to close for the long weekend in a region which apparently permits some optimism. You’re going to need sit down for the next bit.

 

Our software claims movement now above 5,845 allows market travel to an initial 6,266 points. If exceeded, the secondary calculation is now at 6,499 points and beyond. Sharp-eyed readers will notice we’ve credited this potential entirely to ‘our software’, thanks to a decision to employ social distancing from the computer.

It will be worth remembering, come the market re-opening on Tuesday, all the bean counters who count death shall return to work. There’s the risk the media will joyfully find some truly dreadful numbers to gloat over, somehow managing to consign the fact it’s 4 days of misery into the small print.

 

For now, have a safe weekend. And enjoy the chocolate.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:16:01PM

BRENT

32.77

32.1

30.325

34.5

36.88

37.4375

33.4

Success

10:22:26PM

GOLD

1685.88

1670

1664.5

1685

1690

1698.5

1673

Success

10:25:50PM

FTSE

5882

5784

5756.5

5866

5893

5940

5797

Success

10:37:47PM

FRANCE

4533.7

4403

4360

4474

4561

4581

4463

‘cess

10:39:52PM

GERMANY

10707

10489

10442

10588

10712

10778

10532

‘cess

10:41:34PM

US500

2793

2705

2652.5

2777

2806

2823.5

2758

Success

11:04:04PM

DOW

23776

23620

23496

23832

24015

24216

23678

Success

11:10:27PM

NASDAQ

8247

8112

8073

8217

8300

8326

8205

‘cess

11:12:09PM

JAPAN

19467

19126

18997

19380

19615

19669.5

19336

Success

9/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5842 points. Change of 2.91%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,054,916,655 a change of 16.86%
8/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5677 points. Change of -0.47%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,036,851,647 a change of -23.98%
7/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5704 points. Change of 2.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,941,411,250 a change of 28.33%
6/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5582 points. Change of 3.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,188,185,847 a change of 7.79%
3/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5415 points. Change of -1.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,740,716,351 a change of -13.64%
2/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5480 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,647,447,638 a change of -4.67%
1/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5454 points. Change of -3.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,973,403,008 a change of -12.8%

 

G4s PLC for 9/04/2020

#Germany #SP500 First they stole the sky, then they stole society! Those who remember the eerie pause in air travel, following 911, will recall how spooky it was. Skies rarely absent an aircraft, were now devoid of traffic. Now, so are the roads and the sky. Our ‘bit’ in Argyll, Scotland, looks across a 3-mile wide sea loch to a main road, darkness usually punctuated by fast-moving motorcycles, trucks with rows of amber lights, thumping Harley’s and their mid-life crisis riders, the odd supercar whine, occasional police cars trying to calm things down. And of course, the blue lights of an ambulance attending a mess somewhere.

This evening, neither the distant road nor the sky above has anything moving. The new silence asked the question, where have all the people gone?

 

It’s unlikely G4S have locked them up, if we judge by the share price…

 

The recent plunge to 70p was distinctly worrying, this taking the price below a very critical level for the longer term. Normally we would have hoped 96p would provide a floor level but this theoretical trigger level was broken on the initial plunge. Therefore, despite a bit of a bounce, we’re concerned for the future and can present some “what if it all goes wrong” numbers.

Now below 70p suggests the potential of further travel down to 43p next, a point where a real bounce can be hoped for. But should 43p break, ultimate bottom works out at 6p.

 

If a turnaround in the share price is hoped for, we initially need to see it trade above 102p. Such an event allows a trigger to an initial 125p. If exceeded, our secondary calculation works out at 150p.

Who knows, perhaps the reports of police issuing “on the spot” fines to people caught with a bottle of wine among their grocery shopping, the crime apparently being of non-essential shopping. To be honest, we suspect this story comes from the Facebook School of news. Can you imagine politicians being told not to drink?

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:56:11PM

BRENT

34.21

10:00:37PM

GOLD

1646.04

10:02:42PM

FTSE

5710.8

10:04:36PM

FRANCE

4449

10:06:41PM

GERMANY

10405.38

10140

10038.5

9850

10340

10420

10481.5

10868

10207

10:08:49PM

US500

2748.42

2635

2611.5

2562

2688

2751

2761

2779

2661

10:10:52PM

DOW

23423

10:12:50PM

NASDAQ

8212.15

10:15:49PM

JAPAN

19145

8/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5677 points. Change of -0.47%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,036,851,647 a change of -23.98%
7/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5704 points. Change of 2.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,941,411,250 a change of 28.33%
6/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5582 points. Change of 3.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,188,185,847 a change of 7.79%
3/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5415 points. Change of -1.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,740,716,351 a change of -13.64%
2/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5480 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,647,447,638 a change of -4.67%
1/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5454 points. Change of -3.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,973,403,008 a change of -12.8%
31/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5671 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,996,950,957 a change of 37.36%

 

Qinetiq for 8/04/2020

#France #WallSt Two recent stories standout as frightening in the days of Covid-19. Firstly, news the Scottish Govt intended to ban the sale of alcohol during the crisis (a joke thankfully). Secondly, local council health fascists attempting to define Chocolate Eggs as ‘non-essential’ proved not to be a joke. Thankfully supermarkets quickly opted not to restrict the sale of Easter eggs, doubtless hoping for a buying frenzy. Either story risked igniting public unrest!

Of course, the price of chocolate eggs always verges on theft, especially if you spoil the moment by comparing the actual weight of an Easter egg with a normal bar of chocolate. Very quickly, you start to appreciate there is a bigger area of corporate theft than the price of Epson printer inks! None of this has anything to do with Qinetiq’s share price, other than a reminder the Coronavirus event casts its shadow everywhere. We even had ‘Queenie’ channeling her inner Vera Lynn with her wartime speech, reminding us ‘We’ll Meet Again’. The mention of war did remind us to review Qinetiq, given the companies focus.

 

At present, the price is trading at 321p and needs below 232p to suggest someone’s noticed you can’t shoot Superflu germs down with a missile. Such a triggering movement risks reversal to an initial 201p, along with a doubtless fake rebound. But should 201p break, the price could easily nosedive down to 136p as a bottom, hopefully. There is a threat below 136p and it’s visually quite absurd.

Apparently, should 136p, our ultimate bottom calculation works out at just 9p! Aside from some exquisite calculations, nothing visually justifies such a result. Hopefully, the low of 2010 shall provide (if any of this scenario triggers) ample excuse for a rebound, somewhere around the 95p level.

 

This analysis remains part of our “what if it all goes wrong” series. It’s perhaps worth pointing out Qinetiq only need trade above 352p to give some hope for the immediate future. Such a triggering level allows recovery to an initial 393p. If bettered, secondary calculates at a far less likely (in todays environment) of 441p, a new all-time high. Maybe they SHALL design a missile which can shoot down a virus…

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued Market Price At Issue Short Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Long Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Prior
10:26:20PM BRENT 33.17 Shambles
10:28:03PM GOLD 1650.29
10:33:26PM FTSE 5614.64 Success
10:36:09PM FRANCE 4367 4363 4299 4222 4423 4528 4581 4639 4425 Success
10:39:28PM GERMANY 10186 Success
10:59:23PM US500 2648 Success
11:05:18PM DOW 22605 22402 21929 21363 22816 23627 23798 23926 23200 Success
11:08:55PM NASDAQ 8025 Success
11:11:13PM JAPAN 18981 Success

 

7/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5704 points. Change of 2.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,941,411,250 a change of 28.33%
6/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5582 points. Change of 3.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,188,185,847 a change of 7.79%
3/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5415 points. Change of -1.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,740,716,351 a change of -13.64%
2/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5480 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,647,447,638 a change of -4.67%
1/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5454 points. Change of -3.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,973,403,008 a change of -12.8%
31/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5671 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,996,950,957 a change of 37.36%
30/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of 4.59%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,821,744,739 a change of -29.22%

 

Manchester United for 7/04/2020

#Gold #SP500 In our glance at “what if it all goes wrong” share prices, the style of Covid-19 Mortality presentation reminds of the awful football results program on Saturday afternoons in the 1970s. In a house awaiting Dr Who on a Saturday evening, the dirge of dreary football results was detested. How could the BBC even think people were interested in football! For those who ignore history, in the 1970s there were mostly 3 TV channels showing garbage, mostly. Aside from the number of channels, the output remains the same, mostly.

 

It was something of a surprise to discover Manchester United are listed on the New York Stock Exchange, their share price behaving with greater probity than witnessed a few years ago when we covered Glasgow Ranger’s listing, an offering which ended in tears and tantrums. The debate continues, are the current Rangers Football Club an entirely new business or one justified in displaying trophy’s won by the original team?

An article on players’ salaries informed us, alongside an obvious risk of Sky TV wanting their money back for games unplayed, some trouble is queuing up to give football clubs a bit of a kicking.

 

For Manchester United, we’ve allocated a trigger level at 11.4 dollars, the scenario suggesting weakness below such a level allows a shot in the direction of 9.2 dollars. If broken, our secondary calculation (and the point at which we’d REALLY hope for a bounce) works out at 5.2 dollars.

There’s a very big problem if any initial surge breaks below 5.2 as we cannot comfortably calculate an ultimate bottom. Perhaps 0.4 will suffice, perhaps not. Regardless, it looks absolutely absurd. Equally difficult for the naked eye to digest (?) is the downtrend since 2018 as it suggests Manchester’s share price needs exceed 19.1 dollars presently to suggest it’s climbing out of trouble. At present, the price is showing an unhealthy fascination for the uptrend (Red) since 2012, the price oscillating above and below this historical remnant. This sort of holding pattern, following a previous break of a trend, never fills us with confidence.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued Market Price At Issue Short Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Long Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Prior
10:14:14PM BRENT 33.78
10:16:16PM GOLD 1662.52 1630 1618.5 1602 1644 1669 1683.75 1717 1630 Success
10:19:19PM FTSE 5634.84 Success
10:28:57PM FRANCE 4396.5 ‘cess
10:31:20PM GERMANY 10218 Success
10:34:29PM US500 2657 2572 2552.5 2511 2600 2661 2674.5 2754 2596 Success
10:37:01PM DOW 22633 Success
10:38:57PM NASDAQ 8051.75 Success
10:40:53PM JAPAN 18872 Success

 

6/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5582 points. Change of 3.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,188,185,847 a change of 7.79%
3/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5415 points. Change of -1.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,740,716,351 a change of -13.64%
2/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5480 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,647,447,638 a change of -4.67%
1/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5454 points. Change of -3.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,973,403,008 a change of -12.8%
31/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5671 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,996,950,957 a change of 37.36%
30/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of 4.59%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,821,744,739 a change of -29.22%
27/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5510 points. Change of -5.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,225,273,197 a change of 4.62%

 

Reach PLC for 6/04/2020

#Brent #DAX This week, we’re going to focus on a few “what if it all goes wrong” shares. A plea, tweeted by a BBC guy, begged people to purchase a newspaper, due to their sales and advertising revenue crashing. Certainly, a feeling of guilt pervaded when judging going out to buy our weekly local newspaper did not constitute an essential journey. But as for buying national newspapers, that habit died years ago.

Reach PLC own rather a few local newspapers, along with a few national titles which, personally, had never been on a shopping list – aside as possible replacements should any toilet paper shortage continue! And worse, their share price is on the edge of some quite troubling movement.

 

Near term, weakness below 90p looks very capable of a journey down to an initial 84p. Despite there being slight hope for a rebound should such a level appear, some caution is warranted should 84p break. Such a scenario gives a secondary calculation down at 49p.

The 49p level almost has to create an excuse for a proper bounce except for an important detail.

An ambition such as this takes the share price below the low of 2019 and theoretically is the lowest we should calculate. Most of our sums give any ultimate bottom below 49p prefaced with impossible minus signs. Just one calculation fails to agree and it presents an “ultimate bottom” of 19p, neatly matching the share price lows of 2009 and 2012.

 

Certainly, if 19p were ever to appear, it presents a very strong “fingers crossed” entry point.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued Market Price At Issue Short Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Long Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Prior
2:57:13PM BRENT 35.07 32.23 31.405 30.15 34.45 35.17 36.05 36.28 32.64 ‘cess
2:59:26PM GOLD 1621.14
4:29:18PM FTSE 5389.11
4:31:00PM FRANCE 4139.2 ‘cess
4:33:01PM GERMANY 9540.54 9438 9398.5 9323 9563 9625 9674 9754 9465
4:35:42PM US500 2491.27
7:13:36PM DOW 21074
7:15:56PM NASDAQ 7541
7:19:03PM JAPAN 17680 Success

 

3/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5415 points. Change of -1.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,740,716,351 a change of -13.64%
2/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5480 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,647,447,638 a change of -4.67%
1/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5454 points. Change of -3.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,973,403,008 a change of -12.8%
31/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5671 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,996,950,957 a change of 37.36%
30/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of 4.59%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,821,744,739 a change of -29.22%
27/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5510 points. Change of -5.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,225,273,197 a change of 4.62%
26/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5815 points. Change of 2.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,862,267,552 a change of -16.24%

FTSE for FRIDAY 3/04/2020

#FTSE #DAX #GOLD Sorry we skipped a day. Database issues… News of US Jobless claims once again doubling to yet another all time record was greeted by Wall St reeling in shock, achieving a 2.2% gain. We’d warned about this “risk” and were amused, seeing the US close the session at 21,393 points. Our target; 21,395 points! This time round, we doubt if the employment gain shall follow through, thanks to the US’s Monthly Payroll figures being released tomorrow, the first Friday of April.

Despite the market making a considerable effort to close the session in safe territory, any travel below 21,116 points is liable to prove traumatic, giving the potential of a fall to 21,600 with secondary 20,320 points!

As for the FTSE for FRIDAY, the UK market is showing some quite strange potentials. Now above 5,553 points and further recovery toward an initial 5,604 points calculates as possible. If exceeded, our secondary works out at 5,625 points. Unfortunately, the index closed the session at 5,480 and doesn’t require much in the way of trouble to provoke some reversals.

Now below 5,450 risks proving an issue, computing at an initial 5,391 with secondary, if broken, down at 5,325 points.

 

Have a good weekend, stay well, and remember the foregoing applies to the markets, not after hours futures.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:50:12PM

BRENT

29.92

26.8

24.175

27.95

31.05

34.515

29.16

Success

10:53:22PM

GOLD

1615

1582

1567

1598

1620

1634

1584

Success

10:55:09PM

FTSE

5496

5397

5346.5

5473

5561

5587.5

5447

Success

11:03:03PM

FRANCE

4230.5

4150

4122

4213

4265

4288.5

4193

11:05:11PM

GERMANY

9602

9336

9116

9501

9657

9732

9500

‘cess

11:09:47PM

US500

2525

2436

2420

2510

2540

2553

2468

‘cess

11:12:37PM

DOW

21421

21000

20692.5

21290

21495

21672.5

21130

‘cess

11:15:58PM

NASDAQ

7650.99

7424

7366.5

7535

7673

7691.5

7577

‘cess

11:18:29PM

JAPAN

18063

17750

17696

17936

18119

18159.5

17833

Shambles

2/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5480 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,647,447,638 a change of -4.67%
1/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5454 points. Change of -3.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,973,403,008 a change of -12.8%
31/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5671 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,996,950,957 a change of 37.36%
30/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of 4.59%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,821,744,739 a change of -29.22%
27/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5510 points. Change of -5.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,225,273,197 a change of 4.62%
26/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5815 points. Change of 2.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,862,267,552 a change of -16.24%
25/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5688 points. Change of 4.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,386,988,784 a change of 9.28%

 

Wall St for 1/04/2020

#CAC40 #Gold #DOW Traditionally, we would consider producing some sort of absurd analysis for 1st April in homage to April Fools Day. However, about the best we hope for is a grinning Prime Minister saying “gotcha” on the pavement outside Downing St. Somehow, this appears as unlikely as our immediate positive outlook against the Dow Jones.

Following a truly confused day, the index managed to close at 21,927 points. It “only” needs above 22,480 to be viewed as entering a cycle to an initial 23,126 points with secondary, if exceeded, calculating up at 24,725 points. These numbers are supposed to be “Big Picture” scenario but thanks to the width of many recent daily movements, it would not take much for a day to go utterly crazy.

However, we have some doubts. As the chart inset highlights, the US market opted to pay homage to the Blue downtrend, ensuring the index failed to break upward. This being the case, it appears some reversal shall be on the cards.

Weakness now below 21,850 computes with an initial drop target at 21,606 points. If broken, secondary is at 21,406 points but importantly, the index shall find itself in a zone where a sharp reversal to 20,640 becomes painfully possible.

Always remember we are looking at The Dow only and NOT after-hours futures.

 

Finally, a lot has been said about Virus Tourists, these folk turning up at remote locations with Mobile Homes and Caravans, or in the case of Prince Charles, by private jet. Here in Argyll, Scotland, a new type of tourist has appeared. A few reasonably sized boats have dropped anchor in the bay, presumably fully stocked with toilet roll and booze as the occupants have not ventured ashore. To be fair, envy is the only emotion and hopefully, the weather remains calm for the occupiers.

Hey, chart goes here

 

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:22:14PM

BRENT

26.03

‘cess

10:24:13PM

GOLD

1578.88

1573

1567.5

1542

1603

1618

1633

1653

1592

Success

10:26:19PM

FTSE

5594.23

‘cess

10:28:35PM

FRANCE

4345.2

4315

4289.5

4230

4346

4433

4454

4507

4356

Success

10:50:44PM

GERMANY

9794.86

‘cess

10:53:19PM

US500

2578.47

Shambles

10:56:23PM

DOW

21868

‘cess

10:58:02PM

NASDAQ

7800.62

Success

10:59:54PM

JAPAN

18672

Sorry

31/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5671 points. Change of -1.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,996,950,957 a change of 37.36%
30/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of 4.59%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,821,744,739 a change of -29.22%
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