#Brent #Dax It’s been 3 weeks since we last viewed Barclays and nothing has happened. Time’s a funny old thing, we’ve even got toilet paper dating back to March last year! As with many things, this turns out to be Nicola Sturgeons fault and we still refer to the two rolls under the sink as ‘Nicola’s Paper’, a warning sign the cupboard urgently needs replenished.
The toilet paper affair was quite funny. While everyone was panic buying the stuff, our household stuck to 2020’s Lockdown #1 rules and thanks to chemotherapy and no immune system, decided to take advantage of the emergency supplies from the Scottish Govt.
There was once a quite dreadful brand of ‘loo paper’ called Izal. The stuff came in flat packets, similar in size to current packs of moist cleaning wipes. The contents were anything but smooth, probably able to double as sandpaper if required. While it was ideal to fit military backpacks or perhaps old British Rail toilets, izal was a truly unpleasant product. Somehow, Nicola Sturgeons Govt managed to source toilet rolls of similar quality. It forced us to break Lockdown #1 and go shopping.
Similar to Nicola’s toilet roll, Barclays share price remains at the back of the cupboard, never forgotten and only a weapon of last resort…
Or is it?
This week, Goldman Sachs are due to announce their earnings for 2020. Following JP Morgans numbers recently, analysts are getting fairly bullish about Goldman Sachs and we’d hope this shall herald the start of an earnings season where even the retail banks may experience some relief to their dismal performance.
For instance, last month we provided criteria for Barclays giving an important target level of 161p. Unfortunately, the best achieved in the last three weeks has been a worrying 158p, making us suspect some weakness may be present. Ideally, the share price needs better 161p to give any real hope for the longer term, due to fairly realistic growth becoming difficult to avoid. Closure above 161p makes travel to an initial 189p with secondary calculating at a more encouraging longer term 228p very possible.
As always, there’s a fly in the ointment thanks to the Blue downtrend on the chart, a line which dates back to the simpler days of 2013 when we were all trying to forget the banking crash a few years earlier. Perhaps some folk will regard it as important, perhaps not. In current market conditions, conventional trend lines seem to lack importance and in any case, Barclays ended 2020 by breaking free from a bigger picture downtrend, one which dates back to 2007. Given price movements, it certainly appears the market was perfectly aware of this almost invisible trend line (see inset on chart).
The immediate situation is fairly benign, the price needing below 146p to suggest coming weakness to 141p. Only below 141p do things risk being problematic as it shall indicate the break from the trend has failed, risking the share again being trapped at the back of a cupboard with a secondary target level of 126p.
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