#FTSE #GBPUSD It’s easy to think of Sterling’s woes as being a Brexit thing or a Covid thing but the harsh reality of the decline in the pounds strength dates back to 2007 and the start of the financial crash. The chart below spells out this drama with painful clarity, GBPUSD failed to recover from the crash, steadily edging lower in the period since.
We’ve been predicting parity (or worse) for this pair, quite literally for years. The market has proven fairly rigid with its 13 year Blue downtrend with a simple glance indicating the relationship requires exceed 1.34 at present to suggest something game changing is happening. Needless to say, we’ve our own collection of mumbo jumbo reasons to distrust something as obvious as a trend line. Instead, we can calculate GBPUSD needs above 1.39 to cancel the chances of parity making an appearance eventually. In such a miraculous event, we can point to recovery to 1.53 initially with secondary, if exceeded, an amazing sounding 1.71. The surprising thing about the secondary calculation is it’s quite pleasing visually, matching a peak level from 2014 and suggesting a glass ceiling awaits.
Unfortunately, we’re not terribly optimistic, entirely due to the long term threat of parity.
We feel it more likely this relationship shall founder below 1.21, triggering sharp reversal to an initial 1.11 and taking the pair into a zone where our secondary longer term calculation works out at 1.01 and hopefully “bottom”.
FTSE for Friday (FTSE:UKX) The market did not complete Thursday in a happy place, making us fear Friday shall produce some continued FTSE misery. Weakness next below 5803 points (but don’t trust a spike down at the open) suggests reversals coming toward an initial 5757 points. If broken, our longer term (or later that day) secondary calculates at 5683 points! If triggered, the tightest stop is relatively sane at 5867 points. In fact, the risk/reward ratio is such we’re starting to wonder if a negative day shall occur.
The converse scenario comes, should the FTSE manage to stagger above 5867 points as this carries the potential of recovery to a useless 5886 points. If exceeded, our secondary works out at 5938 points, taking the UK market into a region where optimism can easily provide a 3rd target level at 5980 points.
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