#Nasdaq #Sp500 #FTSE As we crawl, remorselessly into the jaws of Xmas, the market has already entered “dozy mode”. This is the period of hiatus, when the grown ups have left the building, leaving a bunch of unpaid interns <joke> toman the markets keyboards. The puzzle, usually this boring bit starts on the 24th with a “surprise” flurry of activity 15 minutes before the market closes for the holiday.
All kidding aside, we’re genuinely puzzled at the lack
of activity in prices. Financial volumes traded through London have been quite
literally record breaking for 2019, since the General Election result was
declared. Common sense alone should indicate fireworks but the reality has been
somewhat sluggish. Perhaps tomorrow, Friday, the dreaded 3rd Friday of the month
and clearing day, shall prove capable of igniting some interest at 10.15am.
At present, the FTSE certainly appears poised for some
action as movement now above 7577 points (we are talking about the FTSE, not
after hours futures) looks very capable of a surge upward to an initial 7607
points. If exceeded, our secondary calculation is at 7668 points. If triggered,
visually the tightest stop should be 7500 but, to be real, 7530 should suffice
if the market plays by the rules.
The surprising thing since the Conservative victory in
England comes from our Big Picture calculation, this now firmly promoting 7750
as a danger level when the market almost must should experience some volatility.
To suggest concern, the index needs fail below 7526,
this looking capable of triggering reversal to an initial 7504 points. If
broken, secondary comes in at 7476 points though, if some grotty news breaks, it
could quickly crash down to 7425 points.
We’re only giving the down criteria as a sort of CYA exercise as the FTSE appears to be enjoying some strong upward forces, for the present. Perhaps this is one of these “Santa Rally” things!
#DAX #DOW It took the Conservatives win in the General Election to “prove” we’ve been studiously following the wrong trend against #RBS. Often, a market Gap such as occurred after the election will do three useful things. First, if confirms the prior trend position and secondly, it confirms a new trend commencing. And third, perhaps the most important detail, we’ve now got an early warning danger level, if the price intends serious reversal.
In the grand scheme of things, the trend in Blue on the
chart inset has turned out to be a load of tosh, the price movement signalling
we should really have been watching the Green trend line! Both trends commenced
from 2008, the Blue one from an adjusted high of 26 quid, the Green one from an
adjusted high of just 7 quid. The implication behind this difference is foul,
suggesting we must dilute long term big picture ambitions.
To look at the positive side of things, should RBS now
manage to stagger above 265p, we’re looking for ongoing recovery to an initial
282p. If exceeded, our secondary calculation works out at 310p. As it’s the
festive season, we decided to run the numbers on the basis 310p is somehow
exceeded. Apparently 431p becomes a major point of interest, a price level where
some real volatility could be expected. Curiously, this level virtually matches
the high of 2015, along with a funny period in 2011 when something strange was
going on with the share.
In plain English, in the (unlikely at present) event
431p makes an appearance, we’d expect trouble.
The immediate future does not look like miracle
recovery is planned. Instead, we’ll be interested if the share staggers below
246p as reversal down to 234p makes a lot of sense. If broken, secondary comes
in at 229p. Despite these calculations bringing the share price below Green
again, we shall not be terribly alarmed unless the market opts to Gap the price
down below the trend. We keep banging on about this sort of thing as it’s a
prime indication the market feels the recent breakout was erroneous.
In the case of RBS, were the price now to be gapped
down below 242p, the big picture allows reversal to 160p, perhaps even a bottom
of 114p.
We need to stress, if the share trades downward without
market manipulation gaps, we shall not be alarmed and suggest patience while
awaiting a future break upward.
Thankfully, this should be the final time we cover RBS
this decade. But shall revisit toward end of January next year.
#France #Japan As we enjoy the agony of our last monthly review of Lloyds for this decade, we can reflect, quite happily, on the successful movement (link) to our “breakout” target level at 68p. Curiously, the share price has not yet actually closed above this level, so the Lloyds party popper remains unpulled!
By any normal standards, we’ve be cheerfully now
proposing 85p as the next major target level but there are a couple of issues to
remember.
Firstly, this is a retail bank with share price
movements often holding a closer correlation to the weather report, rather than
any hard and fast logic. Secondly, the price has not closed above our 68p level,
something we regard as critical to confirm a change of trend. And third, the
share price, similar to Barclays, was gapped up above the trend. Our fear of a
GaGa scenario remains solid with the implication of Lloyds being “gapped” below
the trend creating a scenario of reversal to 33p!
When we review price movements in the period since the
decisive Conservative election victory, the real hope of clarity in the
countries political future suggests anything near term above 70p should increase
Lloyds price to an initial 74p with secondary, if bettered, up at 77p. Better
still, should the share manage to actually close a session above 68p, our longer
term ambition at 85p becomes a reality.
Unfortunately, this is the end of the good news.
Weakness now below 62p risks reversal down to an initial 58p. If broken,
secondary is at 51p. We shall not find this sort of thing too alarming, simply
trading the price below the downtrend since 2009 (again), essentially parking it
until a suitable excuse is discovered for some proper upward travel. As
mentioned previously, we shall be extremely alarmed if the market now finds an
excuse to gap the price back below the trend. This sends one of the worst
signals possible.
#Gold #SP500 Sometimes we’re surprised at the sheer speed of a price movement, when criteria are satisfied. In the case of #SportsDirect, our analysis in September (link) suggested price levels above which the share almost “had” to move. It moved and now, resides in what’s commonly called ‘Game Changing’ territory.
To be fair, it’s ALMOST in Game Changing territory.
There’s a tiny little problem with the price visuals and it relates to a
downtrend which began in April 2014. Currently this trend line is at 474.736p
and the market opted to close Sports Direct at 472.2p. It’s almost like someone
had a crayon, drew a line, and said “No Further!”. If the situation is indeed to
prove Game Changing, the first box we require ticked is of the share price
actually closing a session above the Blue line on the chart.
The immediate situation gives some hope as movement
near term exceeding 476p is supposed to head upward to an initial 512p. If we
play safe and sane, only with moves beyond 512p dare we believe future recovery
to an initial 564p makes sense. If exceeded, our Big Picture secondary
calculates at 698p and visually, this sort of level appears to be a Glass
Ceiling in Waiting for the future.
At present, it’s pretty difficult to define a danger
level for the price. Movements since September suggest the share requires below
290p to justify panic as this could easily provoke a reversal cycle to 144p.
We’d suspect the company would need announce a sponsorship deal with Russian
athletes for the forthcoming Olympics, if they’re serious about driving the
price down.
For now, quite a lot of hope remains for Sports Direct
share price and we think it shall prove a matter of patience, along with
positive overall market conditions.
#Brent #Dax The Xmas Gestapo never forget! After an elm tree in the front garden was decorated with twinkle lights, the lady of the house drove past repeatedly, clambered down to the shore to inspect the job, eventually admitting the display was ‘safe’. A “Top Gear / Grand Tour” inspired illuminated manhood shape still has not been forgotten nor forgiven. Talking of which, Barclays springs to mind and their surprise elevation on Friday with the election result.
Our previous report (link)
suggested criteria to drag Barclays up to 187p, a feat it achieved on Friday. We
now need examine its potentials with greater scrutiny than Mrs T&T employed with
the exterior Xmas light placement. (Thankfully, she did not
fly a drone over the back garden! With LED lighting available at 4 quid for 10
metres, creative design proved easy.)
A detail of enormous importance and one worth watching
for is the risk of the market finding an excuse to reverse Barclays below Blue
on the chart. This could easily create one of our GaGa movements, a Gap Up/Gap
Down. The formula we employ with this sort of nonsense indicates should Barclays
share price now be trashed below Blue (presently 173p), it’s going to find its
way down to 110p eventually.
At present, absolutely nothing suggests this is coming
but it’s worth remembering something important about politics. Often, something
which looks good on the day, looks rather jaded, when examined in detail!
For now, we’re pretty impressed with the shares
immediate performance and now, movement above 188p is supposed to be capable of
an initial 204p. Despite the 2 quid level visually suggesting a ‘glass ceiling
in waiting’, we’re not so sure as above 204p should make 224pp difficult to
avoid.
In summary, quite a lot of hints are saying this
intends 204p. Beyond such a level and we start to develop doubts.
Updated charts published on : AFC Energy, Barclays, BALFOUR BEATTY, Barrett Devs, Bowleven, BP PLC, Capita, Diageo, EasyJet, Foxtons, Hargreaves Lansdown, Hurrican Energy, British Airways, Igas Energy, IG Group, Intercontinental Hotels Group, ITV, Kaz Minerals, Lloyds Grp., Marks and Spencer, National Glug, Premier, Quadrise, Royal Bank Scot, Royal Male, Sainsbury, Speedyhire, Tullow, Tesco, Taylor Wimpey, Zoldav, Zoo Digital,
LSE:AFC AFC Energy Close Mid-Price: 14.47 Percentage Change: -3.02% Day High: 15.5 Day Low: 14.05
This remains dangerous as below 11.7 now gives 10.3 with some rebound pote ……..
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Many thanks for taking the time to read this and good luck for today. Please feel free to mention us after something goes right!
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#DOW #DAX Providing an outlook for Friday 13th December is proving quite difficult. It appears reasonable to assume the Battle of Clowns in the UK has tended confuse the market, recent movements appearing decidedly hesitant with share prices extremely difficult to map from a near term perspective. The market has proven to be at risk from the next stupid headline, each designed to make voters fear “the other guy”.
A glance at European papers essentially reveals the UK
is being laughed at, quite a surprising feat considering Spains two general
elections this year, along with the countries political prisoners. Elsewhere,
Sweden joined Italy in suggesting UK voters would be holding their nose, whilst
voting. All in all, not a flattering picture for an election and probably not
the ideal image for our country!
As for Friday, it’s worth taking an updated look at the
FTSE medium term, specifically the Index during opening hours and not FTSE
Futures. Above 7309 now suggests traffic in the direction of 7384 points. If
exceeded, secondary is a more enlightened 7410 points. Visually, there are
plenty of reasons to anticipate a stumble around the 7400 level as we suspect
only closure above 7410 shall prove capable of igniting a longer term rally
toward the 7650 level.
Of course, as always there’s a flip side to the
argument. If the market perceives the election result negatively, reversal below
7193 could easily provoke travel down to an initial 7036 points. If broken,
secondary is at 6936 and hopefully some sort of rebound.
While writing this headline section, the media
announced the “Exit Poll” and market futures reacted positively. As a result, we
shall not be surprised to see our upward targets around the 7400 level achieved
– if the poll turns out to be correct. It’s going to be a long night as the only
thing which matters is the actual result.
However, it appears Friday shall prove to be an UP day
on the FTSE.
#Japan #France Reports of a rock shaking turn out to be true. Apparently our ex-PM Mrs May is laughing her head off, despite retiring to reside under her rock. Most folk assumed this election could not be managed quite as incompetently as the last one, a belief proving to be hilariously incorrect. Worse, it has totally fouled up the markets as we generally hope the UK index will give a clue. Unfortunately, the FTSE has positioned itself in the Thunderbirds zone – “anything can happen in the next 14 hours!”.
Thoughts of retired PM’s resurrected an excuse to
review SAGA, the company who prey on old, miserable, bald, people. Or those
who’re over 50.
Recent price movements against Saga are not terribly
encouraging, though we suspect it shall find some sort of excuse for a bounce
anytime soon. As the chart shows, price moves are carefully following the
downtrend. This sort of nonsense will generally complete with a sudden spike
downward, followed by a rebound. In the case of Saga, weakness now below 45.5
suggests coming travel down to an initial 43p. If such a level breaks, it
calculates with a secondary at 38p and hopefully a proper bounce.
In the event the price manages exceed Blue on the chart
(presently 52.8) we’re looking at an initial ambition of 56p with secondary, if
bettered, a longer term 87. We strongly, very strongly, suggest holding fire on
that 87p until such time the price actually closes above 56p. In addition,
there’s a very obvious Glass Ceiling awaiting at 60p, one which shall doubtless
be employed to create some hesitation.
On the “down side” of things, we’d be quite alarmed if
Saga now dropped below 32p as 14p presents the lowest we can calculate.
In summary, we think this shall be worth watching for a
spike down at the open in the days ahead. The visuals suggest this should be
used to jump start a rising cycle.
