Lloyds Banking Group 18/12/2019

#France #Japan As we enjoy the agony of our last monthly review of Lloyds for this decade, we can reflect, quite happily, on the successful movement (link) to our “breakout” target level at 68p. Curiously, the share price has not yet actually closed above this level, so the Lloyds party popper remains unpulled!

By any normal standards, we’ve be cheerfully now proposing 85p as the next major target level but there are a couple of issues to remember.

Firstly, this is a retail bank with share price movements often holding a closer correlation to the weather report, rather than any hard and fast logic. Secondly, the price has not closed above our 68p level, something we regard as critical to confirm a change of trend. And third, the share price, similar to Barclays, was gapped up above the trend. Our fear of a GaGa scenario remains solid with the implication of Lloyds being “gapped” below the trend creating a scenario of reversal to 33p!

When we review price movements in the period since the decisive Conservative election victory, the real hope of clarity in the countries political future suggests anything near term above 70p should increase Lloyds price to an initial 74p with secondary, if bettered, up at 77p. Better still, should the share manage to actually close a session above 68p, our longer term ambition at 85p becomes a reality.

Unfortunately, this is the end of the good news. Weakness now below 62p risks reversal down to an initial 58p. If broken, secondary is at 51p. We shall not find this sort of thing too alarming, simply trading the price below the downtrend since 2009 (again), essentially parking it until a suitable excuse is discovered for some proper upward travel. As mentioned previously, we shall be extremely alarmed if the market now finds an excuse to gap the price back below the trend. This sends one of the worst signals possible.

Hey, chart goes here
FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:01:04PM

BRENT

65.32

               

‘cess

10:03:14PM

GOLD

1476.71

               

10:12:14PM

FTSE

7524.5

               

10:13:40PM

FRANCE

5969

5952

5938.5

5917

5978

5995

6002.5

6019

5960

10:17:40PM

GERMANY

13283

               

‘cess

10:19:40PM

US500

3193.15

               

10:21:49PM

DOW

28294

               

10:24:20PM

NASDAQ

8577.75

               

‘cess

10:26:39PM

JAPAN

24042

24016

23977.5

23918

24070

24075

24084.5

24120

24025

17/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7525 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,377,255,941 a change of -3.48%

16/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7519 points. Change of 2.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,678,908,281 a change of -19.58%

13/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7353 points. Change of 1.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,792,434,555 a change of 97.15%

12/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7273 points. Change of 0.79%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,474,098,560 a change of -29.24%

11/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7216 points. Change of 0.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,735,942,999 a change of 44.42%

10/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7213 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,356,569,029 a change of 11.8%

9/12/2019 FTSE Closed at 7233 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,791,115,303 a change of -0.49%

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