Author: T&T Staff

#SP500 #Japan Many shares are showing early signs of “coming off the bottom”. Needless to say, the Retail Bank Sector is not yet part of this grouping and #Lloyds remains resolutely trapped in the gutter. When last reviewed, we suggested Lloyds needed only exceed 35p to give hope, something the price carefully avoided!

 

Rather worse, in keeping clear of our 35p ‘early warning’ trigger level, Lloyds managed to briefly stumble below 27.7p. This movement risks real danger as weakness next below 27p risks further reversal toward 23p as a hopeful rebound level. And if broken, it almost must bounce by 20.7p, thanks to the only calculation below such a level indicating the price faces a final bottom down at just 5p.

We wonder if Lloyds share price shall face a Price Consolidation next in an attempt to make this FTSE100 component look more respectable. Eight years ago, RBS suffered a 10:1 split, thanks to the share price spending the previous 12 months trading in the 20p range. As it’s now trading around 100p (10p in real money) the effort didn’t really work, other than to propel the share price away from ‘penny share’ territory. We’re obviously just thinking aloud as there’s absolutely nothing to indicate a price split is planned, nothing aside from the painful detail Lloyds share price isn’t showing early signs for recovery yet.

 

The share STILL needs movement above 35p to give hope for the future. If there’s to be early warning of a movement to this early warning trigger (yup, we’re reduced to absurd levels of logic), next above 30.6p is supposed to deliver 31.5p. If bettered, our secondary calculation presents a confident looking 34.25p. While the visuals still suggest a Glass Ceiling awaits at the 35p level, we suspect closure above 34.25p shall deliver sufficient strength to allow a longer term ambition of 38p and beyond.

 

For now, Lloyds is quite troubling and we’re quite concerned regarding last weeks breach of 27.7p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:56:07PM	BRENT	36.03									‘cess
9:57:30PM	GOLD	1748.13
9:59:23PM	FTSE	6074.07
10:01:08PM	FRANCE	4484.2									Shambles
10:04:21PM	GERMANY	11228.8									‘cess
10:07:32PM	US500	2977	2946	2936	2921	2975	2981	2988.5	3006	2958
10:10:02PM	DOW	24607.7
10:11:43PM	NASDAQ	9501.99									Success
10:13:12PM	JAPAN	20710	20532	20427	20300	20737	20808	20860.5	21037	20558	Success

20/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6067 points. Change of 1.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,947,398,391 a change of 10.61%

19/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6002 points. Change of -0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,376,891,155 a change of -9.59%

18/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6048 points. Change of 4.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,947,351,021 a change of 14.48%

15/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5799 points. Change of 1.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,195,107,449 a change of -15.28%

14/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5741 points. Change of -2.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,132,234,871 a change of 5.73%

13/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5904 points. Change of -1.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,799,712,485 a change of 7.88%

12/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5994 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,375,886,438 a change of 0%

 

 

#Avacta #FTSE Even the rumour of a Biotech company getting involved in anything Covid-19 related has ensured many share prices receive swift enhancements. With the chances of Formula 1 races being held behind closed doors at Silverstone, will “rapid tests” appear?

 

An announcement of the UK Govt “thinking about, maybe, introducing a 14 day quarantine on air arrivals”, two months after the outbreak and two months after the rest of the world introduced air travel restrictions (except Mexico!), Government Ministers were quick to announce International Motor Racing at Silverstone would be subject to new belated UK regulations. Perhaps they were keen to select an event capable of generating headlines telling the world of the UK’s  delayed draconian measures, showing the country with the 2nd highest number of worldwide deaths is fighting back. There’s a phrase about ‘Stable Doors and Horses’… but realistically, an ability to test teams on arrival and departure would serve to make the closed doors event as safe as possible.

 

Avacta, are one of the companies working in the test field, developing a point-of-care Rapid Test designed to screen large populations to diagnose coronavirus infection. As a devotee of F1, it’s difficult to comprehend why a regime of diagnosis should not allow motor racing to commence in the UK again. Similarly, why should this sort of thing not be employed in lesser sports such as football, tennis, rugby or croquet? On the other hand, make-believe sports like cricket can be safely ignored.

 

It’s quite frustrating, we prepped a report on AVCT last month, choosing not to publish it thanks to the growth potential sounding absurd. Needless to say, it achieved our initial target of 139p and exceeded it, so we’re revamping our expectations.

Presently trading around 146p, movement exceeding 151p calculates with the potential of further movement to 180p. If exceeded, our secondary works out at 226p. If triggered, the visuals indicate the share needs fail below 117p presently to cancel the growth potentials.

We should also point out our enthusiasm is slightly curbed at present, thanks to the price not yet managing to close above the level of 2015’s 151p. If we apply conventional price thinking, with closure above such a point longer term growth shall prove difficult to restrict.

As an aside, visiting a UK hospital today (Tuesday) proved sobering, required to wash hands, wear a face mask, declare a lack of certain medical symptoms, and given concise instructions on how to move around the building. The advent of a quick test will prove game changing in letting life return to normal, while we’re awaiting a cure.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:48:40PM	BRENT	34.91
9:54:27PM	GOLD	1745.53
9:56:38PM	FTSE	5943	5929	5880.5	5801	6023	6119	6179.25	6254	5960	‘cess
10:07:44PM	FRANCE	4413									‘cess
10:20:26PM	GERMANY	10965
10:48:55PM	US500	2919.16	2918	2910	2886	2964	2966	2983.75	3015	2934	‘cess
10:52:58PM	DOW	24204
10:56:39PM	NASDAQ	9296									‘cess
10:58:30PM	JAPAN	20382									Success

 

19/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6002 points. Change of -0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,376,891,155 a change of -9.59%

18/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6048 points. Change of 4.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,947,351,021 a change of 14.48%

15/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5799 points. Change of 1.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,195,107,449 a change of -15.28%

14/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5741 points. Change of -2.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,132,234,871 a change of 5.73%

13/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5904 points. Change of -1.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,799,712,485 a change of 7.88%

12/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5994 points. Change of 0.93%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,375,886,438 a change of -7.35%

11/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5939 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,802,382,632 a change of 0%

 

#Gold #CAC40 #AO.com, the online retailer specialising in household appliances and electricals, appears worth a glance, despite their irritating advertising jingle.

Then again, whatever agency tasked with the job of making something appealing out of two single letters did face an unenviable task. The companies prior name, Appliances Online didn’t really give greater scope for artistic creativity.

However, we’re more interested in their share price potentials as we continue our occasional scan through online suppliers, pretty convinced “proper” shops face a dodgy future in any post Covid-19 world. The only issue, one which is pretty major, will come from shoppers who prefer ‘look and feel’, prior to making a choice. Personally, it would be correct to admit choosing a specific camera in a High St outlet, opting to actually buy the device online due to it being 50 quid cheaper. The days of being “sold” an item by informed staff are, broadly speaking, gone, when frequenting one of these retail parks where the only real advantage is the parking.

 

AO.com appear to have a share price giving hope for the future. Movement next above 104p suggests truly unimpressive travel to 109p next. With closure above 109p, things become interesting as continued moves to an initial 140p are hoped for. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 183p and visually, a chance the share price shall hopefully break through the glass ceiling established since 2015.

As always, we can counter this positive attitude with a case of nerves. We’d be quite concerned, should the price find any excuse to now settle below 85p as this risks promoting reversal to 71p. If broken, our secondary works out at a ridiculous sounding 47p, an ambition which matches the Covid-19 low of March!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:13:02PM	BRENT	35.69									Success
10:15:11PM	GOLD	1733	1726	1715	1698	1744	1746	1756.75	1761	1739	‘cess
10:18:46PM	FTSE	6062.83									Success
10:20:56PM	FRANCE	4505	4420	4393	4350	4486	4523	4564.5	4617	4436	Shambles
10:33:25PM	GERMANY	11083									Shambles
10:36:34PM	US500	2950									Success
10:40:58PM	DOW	24572									Success
10:44:33PM	NASDAQ	9327									Shambles
10:46:29PM	JAPAN	20562									Success

 

18/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6048 points. Change of 4.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,947,351,021 a change of 14.48%

15/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5799 points. Change of 1.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,195,107,449 a change of -15.28%

14/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5741 points. Change of -2.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,132,234,871 a change of 5.73%

13/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5904 points. Change of -1.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,799,712,485 a change of 7.88%

12/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5994 points. Change of 0.93%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,375,886,438 a change of -7.35%

11/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5939 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,802,382,632 a change of 2.67%

7/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5935 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,651,341,668 a change of 0%

 

 

#Brent #DAX When we last reviewed Aston Martin back in January (link) we proposed a pretty foul drop potential of 170p eventually. As the share was trading around the 4 quid level, such a drop ambition appeared positively insane. But with Covid-19, the mighty fell and in Astons case, our 170p was to prove a brief 1 month moment in time as the market had a greater punishment in store.

 

The share price also supplies a pretty solid example of what we mean, when warning of a movement breaking target on an initial surge. In this scenario, a break, especially closure, below a target (in a dropping price example) tends nullify any “what happens next”, if the target level given is a secondary. In plain English, anyone planning a super bounce from 170p was liable to be disappointed as any rebound was liable to prove fairly short lived. This sort of thing occurs too often to be ignored with the result we rarely trust any share (in a falling market) when a major drop target is broken.

There is an important caveat.

What about if the target is broken in the first second of trade? Should this occur, we pay very close attention to what happens next, thanks to opening second downward spikes often being the harbinger of surprise price recovery. Our rule of thumb allows 90 minutes for a price to exceed the level at which the market is showing the day opening at. If this is the case, continued recovery is probable.

 

As for Aston Martin, the share price certainly has some issues as it’s presently trading in a region where we can calculate “Ultimate” bottom at 20p. We’re unable to calculate below such a level and suspect below 27.5p shall signal, hopefully, a final surge downward. However, there’s a chance the recent low of 27.5p shall be deemed “close enough” to indicate some residual strength in the price, resulting in the immediate situation where recovery next exceeding 40p should prove capable of returning the price to the 55p level initially. If exceeded, our longer term secondary calculates at 87p and realistically, we shall require stirring the tea leaves again at such a point.

Closure above 87p does certainly allow 142p to make an appearance but we never trust price targets where the calculation dumps a share price in the middle of a prior gap movement. We’re unable to think of a single instance when this sort of scenario proved viable as a miracle recovery will generally ‘cover the gap’ with a flamboyant movement. Or fizzle out completely.

Who knows, perhaps Silverstone hosting 2 Grand Prix (behind closed doors) in July shall provide Red Bull / Aston a chance to shine!

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
3:48:47PM	BRENT	33.1	31.43	30.925	30.2	32.44	33.1	33.41	34.79	31.45	Success
3:23:24PM	GOLD	1743									Success
3:48:50PM	FTSE	5834									‘cess
4:03:23PM	FRANCE	4291									‘cess
4:05:39PM	GERMANY	10516	10370	10313	10233	10471	10510	10553	10609	10410
4:08:00PM	US500	2860.77									Shambles
4:16:55PM	DOW	23660
4:18:37PM	NASDAQ	9127									‘cess
4:20:29PM	JAPAN	20022

#Gold #Dow #FTSE Two wood pigeon, a crow, and a magpie walked into a bar and none of them were even blonde! Walking in the forest on Thursday, the same 4 birds looked deep in conversation, just standing on the grass. Grudgingly, they flew off before the camera app would even start. The FTSE, down 3.5% at the time, was clearly the victim of the animals scheming as there was no doubt they were up to no good.

 

When the markets experience “A Day” such as Thursday, curiosity demands the cause be identified with the first check being the Business section of Google News, always expecting the media to be misreporting something Trump or Johnston has said. The next choice is presently China and aside from a brilliant headline – “China Threatens to Stop Buying Aussie Politicians” – there was nothing clear. It’s Thursday and US weekly jobless claims day, an event usually capable of driving the market upward regardless how many people are not eating properly. Oil prices proved pretty useless, Gold was slightly interesting. But UK and Europe indexes had taken a stupid pill, as had the US market futures prior to the open.

It looked like our initial suspects, the 2 fat pigeons, a crow, and a magpie, must indeed be the culprits thanks to conventional news sources being utterly divided as to the cause of a day of flamboyant drops. Of course, it’s the markets, and sometimes things happen because things happen. However, from our perspective, there was to be something pretty useful with the level of drops achieved, one of the rare situations where we can be pretty confident of a future scenario.

 

There appears to be a pretty major trigger level down at 5,660 points. Movement now below such a point promises reversal to an initial 5,550 points followed by a bounce of sorts. But if 5,550 breaks, it’s easy to suspect a secondary of 5,395 shall make itself known pretty fast. If triggered, the tightest stop is at 5,775 and hideously wide. It’s possible 5,720 will suffice but the levels of volatility presently are tending demand absurd stop levels.

Equally, it’s visually possible no stop shall be required if the movement triggers as reversal risks being swift.

 

A contrary scenario asks, what happens if the FTSE (not after hours futures) exceeds 5,775 points? In such a case, we’d hope for movement to an initial 5,851 points with secondary, if bettered, at 5,907 points. Put plainly, we’re about to experience a “Fingers Crossed Friday!”

Have a good weekend.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:39:56PM	BRENT	31.77	30	29.505		31	31.8	31.915		30.27	‘cess
10:42:15PM	GOLD	1730.72	1710	1701		1719	1737	1741.75		1721	Success
10:44:19PM	FTSE	5789.07	5720	5688.5		5790	5801	5849.5		5724	Success
11:02:27PM	FRANCE	4303.02	4242	4170		4303	4315	4323.5		4242	Success
11:04:48PM	GERMANY	10462	10164	10076		10286	10481	10566		10355	Success
11:14:32PM	US500	2851.84	2828	2810.5		2860	2859	2864		2831	Success
11:17:06PM	DOW	23634	23223	23095		23420	23683	23813.75		23430	Success
11:19:00PM	NASDAQ	9093	8930	8862		9020	9116	9148.5		9016	‘cess
11:20:53PM	JAPAN	20078	19900	19748.5		20100	20161	20249.25		19900	Success

 

14/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5741 points. Change of -2.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,132,234,871 a change of 5.73%

13/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5904 points. Change of -1.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,799,712,485 a change of 7.88%

12/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5994 points. Change of 0.93%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,375,886,438 a change of -7.35%

11/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5939 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,802,382,632 a change of 2.67%

7/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5935 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,651,341,668 a change of -8.8%

6/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5853 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,887,003 a change of 18.35%

5/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5849 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,236,126,168 a change of 0%

 

 

#Gold #DOW Once we get past a company choosing to name themselves after a Star Wars character, it’s probably worth considering the future for a company invested in airlines, hotels, cruise ships, travel, and retail stores. In fact, if you cherry-picked a list of industries liable to be affected, due to Covid-19, TUI undoubtedly picked the winning hand. When it came to travel, they’re the equivalent of a smug child owning the best properties in a game of Monopoly.

As every family knows, there’s always the risk of the Monopoly board being knocked over ‘accidentally’ and without doubt, the Coronavirus looks pretty capable of providing a pretty firm nudge against TUI’s once confident future.

TUI, the largest travel and tourism company in the world, are a massive employer internationally (Their real name is Touristik Union International) and already warn 10% of their workforce face the chop as the organisation attempts to fight what they describe, with remarkable German understatement, “the greatest crisis the industry has ever faced”.

 

Obviously, we needed to update our thoughts on their share price.

 

On March 16th, the point at which the markets experienced the first solid Covid-19 drop, TUI managed to reach a low of 218 and hasn’t really recovered since. This was a share when the end of February brought hints of danger hitting the fan, the share price was trading over 8 quid. It has already suffered a disproportionate drop, one which it looks difficult to recover properly from. The situation now suggests weakness below 218p risks reversal to 167p and hopefully a proper rebound.

We’d warn, quite firmly, of caution should 167 break on the day of any further drop. A break below 167 risks future reversal to an “Ultimate Bottom” of 15p which visually looks ridiculous. We cannot calculate below 15p.

 

Despite the visuals suggesting TUI needs above 800p to escape this mess, even a nod above the prior post-drop high of 430 shall give considerable hope for a future. We cannot calculate below 15p and are not inclined to discount it. After all, some of the retail banks hit some pretty impressive (at the time) bottoms in 2009.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:51:45PM	BRENT	29.81
9:54:33PM	GOLD	1715.43	1698	1694	1686	1710	1718	1721	1730	1706	‘cess
9:57:06PM	FTSE	5867.57									‘cess
9:59:41PM	FRANCE	4329.7									Success
10:09:03PM	GERMANY	10534									Success
10:12:51PM	US500	2824.27									Success
10:16:19PM	DOW	23309	23055	22997	22477	23346	23433	23486	23696	23388	Success
10:21:08PM	NASDAQ	9021									Success
10:23:49PM	JAPAN	20140									Success

 

 

13/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5904 points. Change of -1.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,799,712,485 a change of 7.88%

12/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5994 points. Change of 0.93%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,375,886,438 a change of -7.35%

11/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5939 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,802,382,632 a change of 2.67%

7/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5935 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,651,341,668 a change of -8.8%

6/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5853 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,887,003 a change of 18.35%

5/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5849 points. Change of 1.67%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,236,126,168 a change of -8.24%

4/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5753 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,706,354,809 a change of 0%

 

 

#France #Nasdaq Purple Bricks share joins a large club of shares, where we produced analysis (link) expressing unhappiness about their share price. What we don’t “get” is all this misery dated from 2019, well before the pandemic. It was almost as if the markets were awaiting an accident to happen, any accident! Very strange indeed. Regardless the sector, we’d noticed many shares feeling like they needed an excuse to jump off a cliff. We’re pretty sure no-one expected Covid-19 with the level of reversals sometimes breaking below our worst case scenarios.

 

Purple Bricks had calculated with a Big Picture bottom potential of 31p, a price level briefly exceeded on March 18th of this year. We could not comfortably calculate a point below 31p and the single day which reached 22p before a rebound wasn’t noticed, thanks to the riotous panic pervading wider markets. Our usual argument, if a price exceeds a drop target then any bounce risks being short lived is perhaps not valid against Purple but we shall review the miserable side of life, despite the break below 31p proving (thus far) to be a fleeting event. We can now calculate below 31p, thanks to movements since March 18th.

Price movement now below 29p looks capable of a downward drift to 20p next with secondary, if broken, at a bottom of 12.5p. Once again, we can pronounce an “Ultimate Bottom” for Purple and it’s at 12.5p. We cannot calculate below this level.

 

However, care has been taken to respect the 31p level, despite the little hiccup in march. The situation now appears to suggest any recovery exceeding 47p should hear to an initial 63p. Visually, this makes some sense. If exceeded, the longer term secondary works out at 108p and theoretically returns the price to the level at the start of the current disaster. With an additional 50,000 deaths in the UK, could this be a dreadful reflection of a surprise influx of property about to appear on the market?

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:02:43PM	BRENT	29.83
10:04:47PM	GOLD	1703.16									Success
10:06:39PM	FTSE	5888									Sorry
10:19:25PM	FRANCE	4412.2	4412	4400.5	4345	4490	4463	4476.5	4498	4444	‘cess
10:22:05PM	GERMANY	10589.34									Success
10:24:11PM	US500	2843.67									Success
10:27:39PM	DOW	23577									Shambles
10:40:59PM	NASDAQ	9067	9046	9012.5	8900	9106	9107	9116.5	9140	9057	Shambles
10:43:33PM	JAPAN	20052									Success

12/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5994 points. Change of 0.93%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,375,886,438 a change of -7.35%

11/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5939 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,802,382,632 a change of 2.67%

7/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5935 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,651,341,668 a change of -8.8%

6/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5853 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,887,003 a change of 18.35%

5/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5849 points. Change of 1.67%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,236,126,168 a change of -8.24%

4/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5753 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,706,354,809 a change of 60.68%

1/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,551,403,027 a change of 0%