#Gold #DOW Once we get past a company choosing to name themselves after a Star Wars character, it’s probably worth considering the future for a company invested in airlines, hotels, cruise ships, travel, and retail stores. In fact, if you cherry-picked a list of industries liable to be affected, due to Covid-19, TUI undoubtedly picked the winning hand. When it came to travel, they’re the equivalent of a smug child owning the best properties in a game of Monopoly.
As every family knows, there’s always the risk of the Monopoly board being knocked over ‘accidentally’ and without doubt, the Coronavirus looks pretty capable of providing a pretty firm nudge against TUI’s once confident future.
TUI, the largest travel and tourism company in the world, are a massive employer internationally (Their real name is Touristik Union International) and already warn 10% of their workforce face the chop as the organisation attempts to fight what they describe, with remarkable German understatement, “the greatest crisis the industry has ever faced”.
Obviously, we needed to update our thoughts on their share price.
On March 16th, the point at which the markets experienced the first solid Covid-19 drop, TUI managed to reach a low of 218 and hasn’t really recovered since. This was a share when the end of February brought hints of danger hitting the fan, the share price was trading over 8 quid. It has already suffered a disproportionate drop, one which it looks difficult to recover properly from. The situation now suggests weakness below 218p risks reversal to 167p and hopefully a proper rebound.
We’d warn, quite firmly, of caution should 167 break on the day of any further drop. A break below 167 risks future reversal to an “Ultimate Bottom” of 15p which visually looks ridiculous. We cannot calculate below 15p.
Despite the visuals suggesting TUI needs above 800p to escape this mess, even a nod above the prior post-drop high of 430 shall give considerable hope for a future. We cannot calculate below 15p and are not inclined to discount it. After all, some of the retail banks hit some pretty impressive (at the time) bottoms in 2009.
|Time Issued||Market||Price At Issue||Short Entry||Fast Exit||Slow Exit||Stop||Long Entry||Fast Exit||Slow Exit||Stop||Prior|
13/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5904 points. Change of -1.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,799,712,485 a change of 7.88%
12/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5994 points. Change of 0.93%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,375,886,438 a change of -7.35%
11/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5939 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,802,382,632 a change of 2.67%
7/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5935 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,651,341,668 a change of -8.8%
6/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5853 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,887,003 a change of 18.35%
5/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5849 points. Change of 1.67%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,236,126,168 a change of -8.24%
4/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5753 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,706,354,809 a change of 0%
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